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After reaching a five-month high last month, existing home sales pulled back in June as record-high home prices and elevated mortgage rates weighed on buyers. This monthly volatility reflects the sensitivity of home buyer demand to mortgage rate changes. Mortgage rates, though lower than a year ago, have increased more than 50 basis points since the Iran war began in late February and remain stuck around 6.5% in recent weeks. Energy shock has reaccelerated inflation, which has outpaced wage growth, further weighing on housing affordability.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in June, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.8% higher from a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.56 million units in June, down 0.6% from May but up 1.3% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, June unsold inventory sits at a 4.6-months’ supply, up from 4.5-months in May and unchanged from a year ago. Inventory between 4.5 to 6 months’ supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Homes stayed on the market for a median of 28 days in June, down from 29 days in the previous month but up from 27 days in June 2025.

The first-time buyer share was 33% in June. The share was down from 35% in May but up from 30% a year ago.

The June all-cash sales share was 25% of transactions, unchanged from last month but down from 29% in June 2025. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The June median sales price of all existing homes was $440,600, up 1.8% from last year. This marks the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and reaches an all-time high. The median condominium/co-op price in June was up 1.6% from a year ago at $380,000. Recent gains for home inventory will put downward pressure on resale home prices in most markets in 2026.

Existing home sales in June were mixed across the four major regions. Sales fell in the South (-3.6%), Midwest (-3.0%) and West (-1.3%) but rose in the Northeast (+2.1%). On a year-over-year basis, sales increased in the South (+3.8%), West (+2.8%) and Midwest (+2.1%) but remained unchanged in Northeast.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 74.0 to 76.8 in May, the highest level since November 2025. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 4.8% higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors’ data.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


Single-family built-for-rent (or built-to-rent, BTR) construction fell back in the first quarter of 2026, as a higher cost of financing, increased multifamily supply and policy concerns over Congressional legislation related to institutional capital froze parts of the development market. Fortunately, recent changes by the House of Representatives have addressed a harmful Senate proposal.

The legislation, as approved by the Senate, would have required institutionally financed new-construction single-family rental housing to be sold to individual home buyers within seven years. This requirement would decrease investable capital and lower housing supply. A preliminary NAHB estimate indicates the proposed rule places approximately 40,000 units per year at-risk. The House version of the bill removes this anti-supply provision. Nonetheless, concerns over the Senate version limited capital investment in the BTR sector at the beginning of 2026.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 14,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the first quarter of 2026. This is down measurably from the first quarter of 2025 (19,000).

Over the last four quarters, 62,000 such homes began construction, which is a 26% decrease compared to the 84,000 estimated BTR starts for the prior four quarter period.

The BTR market is a source of inventory amid challenges regarding housing affordability and down payment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (just under 7%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys.

The Census data note an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging about 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible that some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given that these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines in the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share. However, in the near term, SFBFR construction is likely to be slow given market and policy headwinds.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


Job growth continued to slow at the end of the year, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.4%. With only 584,000 jobs added over the course of the year, 2025 marked the weakest annual job growth since 2003, excluding the recession years of 2008, 2009 and 2020. December’s job gains were led by food services, health care and social assistance, while retail trade and construction experienced job losses.

Wage growth accelerated in December, rising 3.8% year over year. This marked a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, though it still remained 0.2 percentage points lower than a year ago. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 50,000 in December, following a downwardly revised gain of 56,000 jobs in November. Through December, average monthly job growth in 2025 stood at just 49,000, well below the 168,000 monthly average recorded in 2024.

Payroll estimates for the previous two months were revised lower. October’s growth was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000. November job growth was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. Combined, these revisions erased 76,000 jobs from previously reported figures.

The unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.4% in December, following a downward revision of 4.5% in November. Over the month, the number of persons unemployed declined by 278,000, while the number of persons employed increased by 232,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%. This remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate was unchanged at 83.8%, the highest level since September 2024.

Industry-level data further point to a cooling market. Leisure and hospitality added 47,000 jobs in December, while health care and social assistance employment increased by 38,500. In contrast, retail trade and construction posted job losses as well as several other major industries including manufacturing, trasportation and warehousing, and professional and business services, suggesting that hiring softness is broadening across the economy.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector declined by 11,000 jobs in December, after a downwardly revised gain of 22,000 in November. Within the industry, residential construction shed 3,100 jobs, while non-residential construction lost 7,800 positions.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in December, including 952,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and approximately 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative, at a loss of 3,017 per month, reflecting losses in four of the past six months. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has seen a net loss of 41,400 jobs, marking the eighth consecutive annual decline and the longest stretch of annual losses since the Great Recession. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,336,100 positions.

In December, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 5.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. While higher than in recent months, the rate remains relatively low compared with historical norms.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .



A score higher than 50 indicates that more firms reported an increase in their business expectations than reported a decrease.

Construction Firms

1. Business activity outlook increased. The Expected Business Activity Indicator, related to project inquiries and new committed projects, increased by 10 points, to 62, for the fourth quarter of 2024, from 52 for the third quarter of 2024. This means more construction firms anticipate quarter-over-quarter growth than anticipate a decline.

Expectations for project inquiries increased by 7 points, to 59 (from 52 for Q3), and expectations for new committed projects increased by 12 points, to 64 (from 52 for Q3).

Both build-only and design-build firms are more optimistic for Q4 than they were for the previous quarter. The expected activity indicator for build-only firms increased 9 points, to 62 (from 53 for Q3), and for design-build firms it increased 10 points, to 61 (from 51 for Q3).

The indicator is based on survey questions about whether businesses expect the number of project inquiries and new projects to increase, decrease or remain unchanged in the coming three months compared with the previous three months.



This article was originally published by a www.houzz.com . Read the Original article here. .



A score higher than 50 indicates that more firms reported an increase in their business expectations than reported a decrease.

Construction Firms

1. Business activity outlook increased. The Expected Business Activity Indicator, related to project inquiries and new committed projects, increased by 10 points, to 62, for the fourth quarter of 2024, from 52 for the third quarter of 2024. This means more construction firms anticipate quarter-over-quarter growth than anticipate a decline.

Expectations for project inquiries increased by 7 points, to 59 (from 52 for Q3), and expectations for new committed projects increased by 12 points, to 64 (from 52 for Q3).

Both build-only and design-build firms are more optimistic for Q4 than they were for the previous quarter. The expected activity indicator for build-only firms increased 9 points, to 62 (from 53 for Q3), and for design-build firms it increased 10 points, to 61 (from 51 for Q3).

The indicator is based on survey questions about whether businesses expect the number of project inquiries and new projects to increase, decrease or remain unchanged in the coming three months compared with the previous three months.



This article was originally published by a www.houzz.com . Read the Original article here. .

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