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Construction Job Openings Rise in September – Eye On Housing

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The number of open positions in the construction sector increased in September per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down from three years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing. Nonetheless, strength in construction in subsectors like data center construction is creating demand for construction workers. Further, increasing immigration enforcement actions are having an effect on worker availability, which is also contributing to upward pressure for the number of open positions.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy increased in September, rising to 7.5 million. The September reading was higher than a year ago (7.17 million). The September data revealed a rise in job openings across many sectors of the U.S. economy as economic growth remains solid.

The number of open construction sector jobs increased in September, rising from 262,000 in August to 298,000 in September. This total is higher than the total from a year ago (206,000). The chart below notes a declining trend for the construction job openings rate from 2023 to 2025 (after Fed tightening of monetary policy) followed by a recent rising trend for open positions in construction, albeit with significant month to month volatility.

While home building employment has declined over the last year, other sectors of the construction industry have expanded (e.g. data center construction). The industry also faces challenges in terms of no-shows at work sites related to immigration enforcement.

The construction job openings rate increased to 3.4% in September and is up from 2.4% a year ago.

The construction hiring rate increased to 4.3% in September, up from the 4.1% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction was 1.6% in September. The quits rate posted a notable rise in September, increasing to 2.4%. There were 198,000 total quits in that month, compared to 127,000 a year ago.



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PCE Inflation Accelerated in September – Eye On Housing

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge accelerated in September after holding at 3.0% for three consecutive months, complicating the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Consumer spending continued to be pushed up by elevated energy prices rather than income growth, driving the personal saving rate to the lowest level in nearly four years.

The headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index increased 3.6% in September from a year ago, the fastest pace since May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “core” PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.1% over the past twelve months, following a 3.0% increase last month. Core PCE has remained at or above 3.0% since the start of the Iran conflict, suggesting inflation pressure persists even excluding volatile energy prices.

Consumer spending rose 0.5% in September, while real spending, adjusted to remove inflation, remained unchanged. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.2% in September. This growth was led by increases in compensation and government social benefits. Real disposable income—income adjusted for taxes and inflation—fell 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, personal income was 4.1% higher, and real (inflation-adjusted) disposable income was up 1.0%.

With spending growth outpacing income growth, the personal saving rate fell to 3.8% in September, the lowest level since November 2022. The personal saving rate has been on a downward trend since the start of this year, with the exception of July.



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September 2026 – Eye On Housing

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State-level employment data for September continued to show a mixed labor market, with job gains and losses split across the county. Although national nonfarm payroll employment increased modestly, year-over-year job growth varied considerably across states. Construction employment continued to expand nationally, but state-level trends remained uneven. Meanwhile, unemployment rates highlighted persistent differences in labor market conditions across the country, with rates ranging from 2.0% in South Dakota to 5.6% in the District of Columbia.

In September, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 23 states and the District of Columbia (D.C.) compared to August, while 25 states recorded declines. Hawaii and West Virginia reported no change. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 jobs in September, following a gain of 133,000 jobs in August. Through September, monthly payroll gains have averaged 68,000 jobs per month for this year based on the current data vintage.

On a month-over-month basis, employment gains were led by New York (+19,600), followed by New Jersey (+14,900) and South Carolina (+12,500). In contrast, the 25 states that recorded losses collectively shed 100,100 jobs, with Wisconsin posting the largest decline (-13,700). In percentage terms, South Carolina recorded the strongest increase (+0.5%), while Wisconsin experienced the largest decrease (-0.4%) between August and September.

Over the 12 months ending in September, total nonfarm employment increased by 496,000 jobs nationwide, representing a 0.3% gain. Job gains ranged from 400 in Hawaii to 154,300 in Texas. Collectively, nine states and D.C. lost 86,300 jobs over the past 12 months, with D.C. recording the largest decline (-25,800).

In percentage terms, job growth ranged from 0.1% in New Jersey, Maine, and Hawaii to 2.3% in South Carolina. Michigan, West Virginia, Georgia, and Kentucky reported no change over the past 12 months. Among states experiencing employment declines, losses ranged from 0.1% in Vermont, Oregon, and Rhode Island to 1.0% in Montana. D.C., however, recorded a substantially larger decline of 3.5%.

Construction Employment

Construction employment —which includes both residential and non-residential construction, posted a net gain in September. Twenty-five states added construction jobs compared to August, while 21 states lost jobs; four states and D.C. reported no change. Oregon recorded the largest monthly gain (+2,000), while Wisconsin recorded the largest loss (-3,300). Overall, the construction sector added a net 11,000 jobs nationwide in September. In percentage terms, Rhode Island recorded the strongest monthly increase (+2.2%), while Alaska experienced the steepest decline (-3.3%).

Year-over-year, construction employment increased by 109,000 jobs nationwide, a 1.3% gain from September 2025. Louisiana led all states with an increase of 18,800 construction jobs, while Georgia recorded the largest loss (-4,900). In percentage terms, Louisiana posted the strongest annual growth in construction employment (+13.9%), while Alaska experienced the largest decline (-5.3%).

State Unemployment Rate

The state unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market conditions, measuring the share of the labor force that is actively seeking work but unable to find employment. Higher unemployment rates generally signal weaker economic conditions, while lower rates indicate tighter labor markets that may contribute to upward wage pressures.

South Dakota recorded the nation’s lowest unemployment rate at 2.0%, while D.C. posted the highest rate at 5.6%. The elevated unemployment rate in D.C. reflects significant federal workforce reductions and layoffs that occurred during 2025. North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Hawaii, Nebraska, and Wyoming also reported unemployment rates of 3.0% or below. Meanwhile, Michigan, Oregon, Connecticut, and California recorded unemployment rates of 5.0% or higher.



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Inflation Accelerated in September – Eye On Housing

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Higher energy prices pushed inflation to a four-month high in September, keeping pressure on the Fed as inflation has remained above its 2% target for more than five years. Gasoline prices remained the largest driver of headline inflation, accounting for over half of the monthly increase.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.7% in September from a year ago, following a 3.4% increase last month, according to the BLS latest report. The “core” CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased by 2.6% over the past twelve months, following a 2.4% increase in August. The housing shelter index, which makes up a large portion of the core CPI, rose 3.2% over the year, following a 3.0% increase last month. The component index for food rose by 2.5% over the year, and the energy component index increased by 20.4%. Meanwhile, technology prices continued to climb amid strong AI demand, with price indexes for computers and software increasing 9.7% and 28.4% from a year ago.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.6% in September (seasonally adjusted), while the “core” CPI increased by 0.3%.

The price index for a broad set of energy sources increased by 5.2% in September, as decline in natural gas (-0.3%) was offset by increases in fuel oil (+15.3%), gasoline (+9.1%) and electricity (+0.2%). Meanwhile, the food at home index fell by 0.1% and the food away from home index rose by 0.2 in September.

Outside of energy, other top contributors that rose in September included indexes for recreation (+0.5%), used cars and trucks (+0.7%), education (+0.6%), airline fares (+1.2%), medical care (+0.1%) and apparel (+0.3%). Meanwhile, the index for communication (-0.2%) was among the major indexes that decreased over the month.

The index for shelter, which makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.4% in September, following a 0.3% increase last month. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.3% and 0.2% over the month.

NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components). In September, the Real Rent Index fell by 0.1%.



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Existing Home Sales Increased in September – Eye On Housing

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Existing home sales rose after three months of declines as improved inventory gave buyers more negotiating power. As buyers wait for rate relief, homes are sitting on the market longer and for-sale inventory reached the highest level in over a decade. Despite the increase, August and September sales remained the slowest this year. With mortgage rates back above 7% since mid-September, home sales are likely to stay sluggish over the next few months.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This marked the second-lowest level since July 2025 and only the third time since October 2024 that sales dropped below 4.0 million. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.2% lower than a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.60 million units in September, up 1.9% from August and 4.6% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, September unsold inventory sits at a 4.8-months’ supply, unchanged from last month but up from 4.5-months a year ago. This matched last month and was the highest months’ supply since November 2015. Inventory between 4.5 to 6 months’ supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Homes stayed on the market for a median of 33 days in September, up from 31 days in the previous month but unchanged from September 2025.

The first-time buyer share was 31% in September. The share was up from 30% both in August and a year ago.

The September all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, unchanged from last month and down from 30% in September 2025. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The September median sales price of all existing homes was $417,500, up 1.3% from last year. This marks the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in September was up 1.2% from a year ago at $363,700. Recent gains for home inventory will put downward pressure on resale home prices in most markets in 2026. Existing home sales in September were mixed across the four major regions. Sales rose in the South (2.8%) and West (2.8%), while they fell in the Northeast (-2.1%). Sales in the Midwest were unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales decreased in all four regions, ranging from 0.5% in the South to 2.1% in the Midwest.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 71.0 to 71.2 in August. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 4.7% lower than a year ago according to the National Association of Realtors’ data.



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U.S. Economy Adds 29,000 Jobs in September as Prior Months Are Revised Down – Eye On Housing

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The U.S. labor market cooled in September, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by just 29,000 as downward revisions erased most of August’s previously reported strength. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, as both employment and the labor force continued to grow. The September report indicates that the labor market is losing momentum, with job growth slowing and unemployment edging higher.

The labor market has lost jobs in seven of the last 21 months.

Wage growth continued to cool, with average hourly earnings rising 3.0% year over year in September, down from 3.1% in August and marking the slowest pace of 2026. Average hourly earnings reached $37.81. The continued deceleration in wage growth points to easing wage pressures, even as the pace of hiring moderates.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 in September, following a downwardly revised gain of 133,000 in August. Revisions to prior months were broadly negative, reversing the upward revisions reported last month. The change for July was revised down by 31,000, from a gain of 21,000 reported last month to a decline of 10,000. The change for August was revised down by 29,000, from the preliminary estimate of 162,000 to 133,000. Combined, these revisions subtracted 60,000 jobs from previously reported totals, compared with the 55,000 upward revision reported in the prior month.

Job growth in 2026 has slowed again. Through September, monthly payroll gains have averaged 68,000 based on the current data vintage, down from the 80,000 pace reported through August, reflecting both September’s modest print and the downward revisions to July and August. This compares with an average of just 10,000 per month in 2025 and 122,000 per month in 2024. Over the past 12 months, total nonfarm employment has grown by 496,000, down from the 603,000 gain reported a month ago.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in August, though it remains two-tenths of a point below its year-ago level of 4.4%. Over the month, the number of employed persons rose by 406,000, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 78,000. Combined, the civilian labor force expanded by 485,000 in September, continuing the labor force growth that began in August.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—rose 0.2 percentage points to 61.8% in September, marking its third consecutive monthly increase. However, the rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the start of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 83.7%, matching its year-ago level.

Outside of construction, employment gains in September were led by health care (+17,000) and leisure and hospitality (+10,000), with manufacturing (+9,000) and transportation and warehousing (+7,600) also expanding. These gains were partially offset by declines in government (-17,000) and information (-10,000).

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector rose by 11,000 jobs in September, following a gain of 16,000 in August, which was revised down from the 22,000 originally reported. Within the industry, residential construction employment declined by 4,900, reversing August’s gain (also revised down, from 10,700 to 7,900), while nonresidential construction added approximately 16,100 jobs.

Residential construction employment stood at 3.3 million in September, including 923,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers, up from 920,000 in August, and approximately 2.3 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of residential construction employment changes worsened to a loss of approximately 4,400 jobs per month in September, from a loss of roughly 2,033 in August. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has shed a net of 32,800 jobs, marking the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year decline. Despite these losses, residential construction employment remains 1,280,600 positions above its post-Great Recession low. This cushion narrowed from 1,285,500 in August, reflecting September’s employment loss.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 4.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 4.1% in August but still roughly four-tenths of a point below its year-ago level of 4.7%.



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Consumer Confidence Fell in September – Eye On Housing

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Consumer confidence in September plunged to the lowest level since April 2014 as consumers grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the economic outlook. This report captured consumer sentiment following the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023 and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Consumer views of business conditions turned negative for the first time in two years, while the labor market outlook continued to worsen. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing jobs as plentiful and hard-to-get, remained narrow and reached its lowest level since February 2021.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 89.4 to 81.9 in September, the lowest level since April 2014. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 11.9 points to 109.3, the lowest level since February 2021; the Expectation Situation Index declined 4.6 points to 63.6, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since April 2025. This is the twentieth consecutive month for which the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions worsens in September. The share of respondents rating business conditions as “good” decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.5%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 2.8 percentage points to 20.4%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market were more negative in September. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” fell by 3.4 percentage points to 23.6%, the lowest level since February 2021; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 2.4 percentage points to 21.9%, the highest level since January 2021.

Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve decreased from 16.8% to 15.9%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate increased from 23.1% to 25.4%. Meanwhile, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” fell from 14.6% to 14.0%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” rose by 2.3 percentage points to 28.4%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home rose slightly to 5.4% in September. Of those, the shares planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home decreased to 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively. The remaining 2.6% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.



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September 2025 – Eye On Housing

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In September 2025, nonfarm payroll employment was largely unchanged across states on a monthly basis, with a limited number of states seeing statistically significant increases or decreases. This reflects generally stable job counts across states despite broader labor market fluctuations. The data were impacted by collection delays due to the federal government shutdown.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 29 states and the District of Columbia in September compared to the previous month, while decreasing in 20 states. New Mexico reported no change. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 119,000 in September, following significant downward revisions to the previous two months’ figures including job losses in August. Through September, monthly job growth has averaged 76,000, a significant slowdown compared to the 168,000 monthly average gain for 2024.

On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in Missouri, which added 18,300 jobs. New Jersey came in second (+10,900), followed by North Carolina (+10,200). Meanwhile, a total of 96,300 jobs were lost across 20 states, with New York reporting the steepest job losses at 27,000. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in Missouri at 0.6%, while Connecticut saw the largest decline at 0.3% between August and September.

Year-over-year ending in September, 1.3 million jobs have been added to the labor market, which is a 0.8% increase compared to the September 2024 level. The range of job gains spanned from 900 jobs in Montana to 168,000 jobs in Texas. Three states and the District of Columbia lost a total of 25,700 jobs in the past 12 months, with the District of Columbia reporting the steepest job losses at 9,600. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 0.1% in Nevada and Maryland to 2.3% in South Carolina. The range of job losses in Kansas, Massachusetts, Maine, and the District of Columbia spanned 0.1%-1.2%.

Construction Employment

Across the nation, construction sector jobs data —which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 31 states and the District of Columbia reported an increase in September compared to August, while 17 states lost construction sector jobs. The two remaining states reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Texas, with the highest increase, added 4,300 construction jobs, while Florida, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 4,400 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 19,000 jobs in September compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Michigan reported the highest increase at 2.1%, while Mississippi reported the largest decline at 4.9%.

Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 38,000, which is a 0.5% increase compared to the September 2024 level. Texas added 16,400 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while New York lost 16,900 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, New Mexico had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 12.4%. During this period, New Jersey reported the largest decline of 6.0%.



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Building Material Prices Continued to Rise in September – Eye On Housing

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Aggregate residential building material prices rose at their fastest pace since January 2023 in the latest Producer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Input energy prices increased for the first time in over a year, while service price growth remained lower than goods.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3% in September, after falling 0.1% in August. The index for final demand goods increased 0.9% in September, the largest monthly increase since February 2024. Final demand energy prices were responsible for most of the goods index increase, as they rose 3.5% in September. This index for final demand for services was unchanged in September.

The price index for inputs to new residential construction rose 0.2% in September and was up 3.1% from last year. The price of goods inputs was up 0.1% over the month and 3.5% from last year, while prices for services were up 0.3% over the month and 2.5% from last year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the inputs to residential construction price index, representing around 60%. On a monthly basis, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 0.1% in September.

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring remaining goods. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

Energy input prices rose 1.0% in September and were 3.0% higher than one year ago. Building material prices were up 0.1% in September and up 3.5% compared to one year ago. The 3.5% year-over-year increase is the largest increase since the 4.9% experienced back in January 2023. Residential building material price inflation slowly accelerated over the year, after starting around 2.0%.

The largest year-over-year price changes continue to be parts for construction machinery and equipment, sold separately, up 41.3% compared to September of last year. Metal molding and trim prices are up 31.0% from last year. Ready-mix concrete, a key input to new residential construction, has shown little price growth in 2025, up only 0.4% from last year. Additionally, softwood lumber prices were down 2.3% in September from last year. Lumber prices have experienced declines over the past few months despite higher tariffs now in place. Ongoing weaknesses during 2025 in new residential construction have led to an acute oversupply of lumber on the market, with demand below expectations.

Input Services

Prices for service inputs to residential construction reported an increase of 0.3% in September. On a year-over-year basis, service input prices were up 2.5%. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component (other services).

 The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by other services (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was up 3.1% from a year ago. The other services component was up 1.3% over the year.  Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services rose 2.6% compared to August of last year.



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September Jobs Report Highlights a Cooling but Still Growing Labor Market – Eye On Housing

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The long-delayed September jobs report revealed that the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in nearly four years. Combined with downward revisions to previous months, this month’s data indicates a slowing of the U.S. labor market, though one that is still expanding. With the October jobs report cancelled due to the government shutdown and November’s report not scheduled for release until December 16, this September report now stands as the Federal Reserve’s final look at labor market conditions before its December meeting.

In September, wages grew at a 3.8% pace year over year, matching August’s increase. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

The September jobs report was delayed by more than six weeks due to the federal government shutdown. According to the long-awaited Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 119,000 in September, following a downwardly revised loss of 4,000 jobs in August. August’s growth was revised down by 26,000, from an initial estimate of +22,000 to -4,000, marking the second month of negative job growth since January 2010. July’s job growth was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000. Combined, the revisions erased 33,000 jobs from previously reported figures.

Through September, monthly job growth in 2025 has averaged 76,000, a significant slowdown compared to the 168,000 monthly average gain for 2024.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, its highest level in nearly four years. The number of persons unemployed rose by 219,000 and the number of persons employed increased by 251,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%. This remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate remained steady at 83.7%, the highest level since October 2024.

In September, employment gains were seen in health care (+43,000), food services and drinking places (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000), while the transportation and warehousing sector and the federal government experienced job losses. Federal government employment fell by 3,000 positions in September and has now shed a total of 97,000 positions since peaking in January 2025. The BLS notes that “employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.”

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 19,000 in September, after three consecutive months of job losses. Within the industry, residential construction added 3,100 jobs, while non-residential construction gained 16,300 positions.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in September, including 954,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative at -3,767 per month, reflecting losses in four of the past six months for May through August 2025. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has seen a net loss of 44,900 jobs, marking the fifth consecutive annual decline since September 2020. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,340,000 positions.

In September, the unemployment rate for construction workers jumped to 5.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.



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