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New Home Sales Hold Steady at a Relatively Tepid Level

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Challenging affordability conditions, elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to act as headwinds on the housing sector as many potential buyers continue to stay on the sidelines.

Sales of newly built single-family homes edged 0.6% higher in June, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This marks a 0.6% increase from May’s unrevised figures. However, this is 6.6% below the June 2024 level. June new home sales are down 4.3% on a year-to-date basis. The past two months have been the slowest sales pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged above 6.8% in June.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be at any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the June reading of 627,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory continued to rise with 511,000 residences marketed for sale as of June. This is 1.2% higher than the previous month, and 8.5% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, the months’ supply for new homes remained elevated at 9.8 compared to 8.4 a year ago. A measure near a six months’ supply is considered balanced.

As expected, the combined new and existing total months’ supply has risen over the last few months to a balanced 5.4 months due to continued buyer hesitation in both new and existing home sales markets. Elevated mortgage rates and sustained price levels continue to limit purchasing power, particularly among first-time and middle-income buyers.

A year ago, there were 94,000 completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By the end of June 2025, that number increased 21.3% to 114,000. However, completed, ready-to-occupy inventory remains just 22% of total inventory, while homes under construction account for 54%. The remaining 24% of new homes sold in June were homes that had not started construction when the sales contract was signed.

The median new home sale price edged down 4.9% in June to $401,800. This is down 2.9% compared to a year ago. In terms of affordability, the share of entry-level homes priced below $300,000 has been steadily falling in recent years. Only 14% of the homes were priced in this entry-level affordable range, while 28% of the homes were priced above $500,000. Most of the homes were priced between $300,000-$500,000.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down in all four regions, falling 1.6% in the South, 4.0% in the West, 8.5% in the Midwest, and 25.6% in the Northeast.

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Existing Home Sales Retreat to 9-Month Low

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Existing home sales fell to 9-month low in June as home prices hit another monthly record high, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sluggish pace of sales suggest that higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices are continuing to sideline buyers, despite improved inventory conditions.

Mortgage rates have hovered between 6.5% and 7% due to ongoing economic and tariff uncertainty this year, prompting the Fed to pause interest rate cuts. With mortgage rates expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025, these prolonged higher rates and high home prices would continue to weigh on the market. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million in June, the lowest level since October 2024. On a year-over-year basis, sales were unchanged from a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.53 million units in June, down 0.6% from May, but up 15.9% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, June unsold inventory sits at a 4.7-months’ supply, up from 4.6-months in May and 4.0-months in June 2024. Inventory between 4.5 to 6 month’s supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Homes stayed on the market for a median of 27 days in June, unchanged from May but up from 22 days in June 2024.

The first-time buyer share was 30% in June, unchanged from May but up 29% from a year ago.

The June all-cash sales share was 29% of transactions, up from 27% in May and 28% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The June median sales price of all existing homes was $453,300, up 2.0% from last year. This marked an all-time high for the month of June and the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in June was up 0.8% from a year ago at $374,500.  Recent gains for home inventory will put downward pressure on resale home prices in most markets in 2025.

Geographically, three of the four regions experienced a decline in existing home sales in June, with a decrease of 2.2% in the South, 4.0% in the Midwest, and 8.0% in the Northeast. Meanwhile, sales in the West rose 1.4%. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up in the Midwest (2.2%) and the South (1.7%) but were down in the West (-4.1%) and the Northeast (-4.2%).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 71.3 to 72.6 in May, suggesting a solid labor market is supporting the market despite the elevated mortgage rates. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 1.1% higher than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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Sales of Lower-Priced New Single-Family Homes Declined Over the Past Five Years

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From 2020 to 2024, sales of lower-priced new homes declined significantly as the market moved toward higher-priced segments. Rising construction costs—driven by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages—as well as higher regulatory costs, made it increasingly difficult for builders to construct affordable homes. On the other hand, low levels of inventory pushed up the price of new single-family homes, deepening the housing affordability crisis for first-time and middle-income buyers.

National New Home Sales by Sales Price

Data from the U.S. Census’s Survey of Construction (SOC) shows that total sales of new single-family homes declined by 17% during the 2020—2024 period. Meanwhile, the median sales price of new single-family homes increased significantly, rising from $330,900 in 2020 to $420,300 in 2024. This steep rise in sales price has placed additional pressure on prospective home buyers, particularly those seeking homes in the lower-priced segments.

Between 2020 and 2024, the market for new single-family homes experienced significant shifts in the distribution of sales by price range. Most notably, there was a sharp decline in sales of lower-priced homes. Homes priced under $300,000 experienced a 65% decline in sales, while sales of homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 fell by 10%. In contrast, higher-end segments saw substantial growth, with sales of homes priced between $800,000 and $999,999 more than doubling and those priced at $1,000,000 or more increasing by 85%.

The market share of lower-priced homes declined dramatically. In 2020, homes priced under $300,000 accounted for 40% of the total new single-family home sales, making them a dominant category. By 2024, this category had dropped to the third largest, overtaken by homes in the $300,000—$399,999 and $400,000—$499,999 ranges. Meanwhile, the share of higher-priced homes expanded, reflecting a broader shift toward more expensive construction and away from affordability.

Regional New Home Sales by Sales Price

The regional picture mirrors these national trends, though the magnitude and affected price category vary by geography. Between 2020 and 2024, all four regions—the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West—saw declines in new home sales. The West experienced the steepest drop at 28%, followed by the Midwest at 14%, the South at 13%, and the Northeast at 8%. The declines mainly reflect significant declines in lower-priced home sales.

In the Midwest and South, the declines in new home sales were limited to homes priced under $300,000. In the Northeast and West, where the regions tend to have higher median home prices, sales declines occurred in multiple price categories. The Northeast saw a broader decline in new homes sold under $600,000, while new home sales in the West reported declines in three price categories under $500,000.

Furthermore, all four regions also experienced a decline in the market share of lower-priced homes. In 2020, more than half of the new homes sold in the Midwest and South were priced under $300,000. By 2024, that share had plummeted to just 16% in the Midwest and 23% in the South. The Northeast and West also saw notable shifts, with the share of homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 dropping sharply over the same period.

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Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales

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Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty sent more home buyers to the sidelines in May as housing affordability conditions remain challenging.

Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the slowest pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged 6.83% in May. Sales were particularly slow in the South, with the pace of sales down 21% in May.

The slowing of the housing market has occurred despite the growing use of of builder sales incentives, including 37% of home builders reporting cutting prices in the June NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey.

On a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 3.2% lower thus far in 2025. As a result of slowing home sales conditions, inventory continues to rise, marking an elevated 9.8 months’ supply in May.

As estimated by NAHB, total months’ supply, defined as a combination of current new and resale single-family inventory, now stands at 5.2. This is the highest sales-adjusted inventory level since 2015 and will place downward pressure on housing construction starts in the months ahead.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the May reading of 623,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory continued to rise with 507,000 residences marketed for sale as of May. This is 1.4% higher than the previous month and 8.1% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, the months’ supply for new homes stands at 9.8 compared to 8.5 a year ago. Completed, ready-to-occupy new home inventory stood at 115,000 in May, up 29% compared to a year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. However, this measure was higher at the end of 2024.

The median new home sale price in May was $426,600, compared to $414,300 a year ago. This measure reflects the fact that higher income borrowers face fewer budget constraints than lower income prospective home buyers. New home sales priced below $500,000 were down 15% in May of 2025 compared to the May 2024.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 20.7% in the Northeast, 11.9% in the Midwest and 1.8% in the South. Sales are up 2.1% in the West.

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Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May

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Existing home sales rose 0.8% in May but remained near historical lows, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Despite the modest increase, this marks the slowest pace for May since 2009. The sluggish sales suggest higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices continue to sideline buyers even with improved inventory conditions.

Mortgage rates have hovered between 6.5% and 7% due to ongoing economic and tariff uncertainty this year, prompting the Fed to pause interest rate cuts. With mortgage rates expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025, these prolonged higher rates and high home prices would continue to weigh on the market. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 0.7% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share was 30% in May, down from 34% in April and 31% from a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.54 million units in May, up 6.2% from April, and up 20.3% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, May unsold inventory sits at a 4.6-months’ supply, up from 4.4-months in April and 3.8-months in May 2024. Inventory between 4.5 to 6 month’s supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 27 days in May, down from 29 days in April but up from 24 days in May 2024.

The May all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, up from 25% in April but down from 28% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The May median sales price of all existing homes was $422,800, up 1.3% from last year. This marked an all-time high for the month of May and the 23rd consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in May was up 0.7% from a year ago at $371,300.  Recent gains for home inventory will put downward pressure on resale home prices in most markets in 2025.

Geographically, three of the four regions saw an increase in existing home sales in May, with an increase of 1.7% in the South, 1.0% in the Midwest, and 4.2% in the Northeast. Meanwhile, sales in the West fell 5.4%. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up in the Northeast (4.2%) and the Midwest (1.0%), while sales were down in the South (-0.5%) and the West (-6.7%).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 76.1 to 71.3 in April, suggesting buyers remained constrained by higher mortgage rates. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 2.5% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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Existing Home Sales Fall in April

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Despite the brief retreat in mortgage rates and increased supply, existing home sales dropped to 7-month low in April, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This unexpected decline suggests buyers’ activity continues to be constrained by economic uncertainty and ongoing affordability challenges even with improved market conditions.

While existing home inventory improved , the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. These prolonged higher rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in April. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.0% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share was 34% in April, up from 32% in March and 33% from a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.45 million units in April, up 9.0% from March, and up 20.8% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, April unsold inventory sits at a 4.4-months’ supply, up from 4.0-months in March and 3.5-months in April 2024. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply), but it increases growing competition for home builders.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 29 days in April, down from 36 days in March but up from 26 days in April 2024.

The April all-cash sales share was 25% of transactions, down from 26% in March and 28% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The April median sales price of all existing homes was $414,000, up 1.8% from last year. This marked an all-time high for the month and the 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in April was up 1.4% from a year ago at $370,100. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases. Existing home sales in April were mixed across the four major regions. Sales fell in the West (-3.9%) and Northeast (-2.0%), rose in the Midwest (2.1%), and remained unchanged in the South. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down in the Midwest (-1.0%), South (-3.2%) and West (-1.3%), while remaining flat in the Northeast.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI jumped from 72.1 to 76.5 in March, the largest monthly increase since December 2023. This increase suggests homebuyers are highly sensitive to even small changes in mortgage rates. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 0.6% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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Existing Home Sales Receded in March

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Existing home sales declined in March, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), as affordability challenges continued to weigh on the market. For the first time, the median home price surpassed $400,000 for the month of March, underscoring the ongoing pressure on prospective buyers. While mortgage rates have eased slightly, persistent economic uncertainty may continue to limit buyer activity in the near term.

While existing home inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. These prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, declined 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.4% lower than a year ago.

The share of first-time buyers rose to 32% in March, up from 31% in February and unchanged from March 2024.

The existing home inventory level was 1.33 million units in March, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, March unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-months’ supply, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 36 days in March, down from 42 days in February but up from 33 days in March 2024.

The March all-cash sales share was 26% of transactions, down from 32% in February and 28% a year ago.

The March median sales price of all existing homes was $403,700, up 2.7% from last year. This marked the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in March was up 1.5% from a year ago at $363,000. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

In March, existing home sales declined across all four major U.S. regions. The West experienced the steepest drop, with sales falling 9.4%, followed by the South (-5.7%), the Midwest (-5.0%), and the Northeast (-2.0%). On a year-over-year basis, sales rose slightly in the West by 1.3%, declined in the South and Midwest by 4.2% and 3.1% respectively, and remained unchanged in the Northeast.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 70.6 to an all-time low of 67.3 in February. This decline suggests elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates continue to constrain affordability. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 9.9% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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New Home Sales Rise in March

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A modest decline in mortgage rates and lean existing inventory helped boost new home sales in March even as builders and consumers contend with uncertain market conditions.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in March increased 7.4% to a 724,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a revised January number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in March was up 6.0% compared to a year earlier.

The March new home sales data shows that demand continues to be present in the market, provided affordability conditions permit a purchase. An increase in economic certainty would be a big boost to future sales conditions. Lower mortgage interest rates helped boost the pace of new home sales in March. In February, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.84%, while in March it fell to 6.65%.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the March reading of 724,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in March continued to rise to a level of 503,000, up 7.9% compared to a year earlier. This represents an 8.3 months’ supply at the current building pace. This level of supply continues to be reasonable given that the resale, single-family months’ supply remains lean at just 3.4. The count of completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale increased to 119,000, up 34% from a year ago.

However, the March data also is showing signs that the total amount of inventory in the new construction space has slowed given soft housing conditions at the start of 2025. For example, the count of new homes available for sale that are under construction (263,000 in March) is down 5% year-over-year and 6% lower than the non-seasonally adjusted peak count set in October 2024.

The median new home sale price in March was $403,600, down 7.5% from a year ago. Sales were particularly strong at lower price levels. Compared to March 2024, new homes sales were 33% higher for homes priced below $300,000 and 28% higher for new homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 12.9% in the South, but are down 32% in the Northeast, 18.3% in the Midwest and 6% in the West.

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Slight Decline in Rates Helps New Home Sales to Edge Higher in February

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A slight decline in mortgage rates and limited existing inventory helped new home sales to edge higher in February even as housing affordability challenges continue to act as a strong headwind on the market.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in February increased 1.8% to a 676,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a revised January number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in February was up 5.1% compared to a year earlier.

New home sales have been roughly flat thus far in 2025, as ongoing limited inventory of existing homes in many markets continues to support the need for new homes. Lower mortgage rates helped to lift demand in February, despite other near-term risks such as tariff issues and affordability concerns.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the February reading of 676,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in February continued to rise to a level of 500,000, up 7.5% compared to a year earlier. This represents an 8.9 months’ supply at the current building pace. The count of completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale increased again, rising to 119,000, up 35% from a year ago and marking the highest count since mid-2009. 

However, after accounting for a low 3.4 months’ supply for the existing single-family market, total market inventory (new and existing homes) stands at a lean 4.2 months’ supply per NAHB estimates. A balanced market is typically defined as a 6 month’s supply.

The median new home sale price in February was $414,500, down 1.5% from a year ago. The count of sales was supported by a gain of transactions priced between $300,000 and $400,000 in February.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 12.4% in the South but down 6.7% in the West, 13.5% in the Midwest and 50.8% in the Northeast.

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Existing Home Sales Increased in February

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Existing home sales in February increased to the second highest level since March 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This rebound suggests buyers are slowly entering the market as inventory improves and mortgage rates decline from recent high in January. Despite rates easing, economic uncertainty may continue to constrain buyer activity.

While existing home inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. These prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in February. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 1.2% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share was 31% in February, up from 28% in January and 26% from a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.24 million units in February, up from 1.18 million in January, and up 17.0% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, February unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-months’ supply, unchanged from last month but up from 3.0-months’ supply a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 42 days in February, up from 41 days in January and 38 days in February 2024.

The February all-cash sales share was 32% of transactions, up from 29% in January but down from 33% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The February median sales price of all existing homes was $398,400, up 3.8% from last year. This marked the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in February was up 3.5% from a year ago at $355,100. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Existing home sales in February were mixed across the four major regions. Sales rose in the South (4.4%) and West (13.3%), fell in the Northeast (-2.0%), and remained unchanged in the Midwest. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased in the Northeast (4.2%) and Midwest (1.0%), decreased in the South (-4.0%), and were unchanged in the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 74.0 to an all-time low of 70.6 in January. This decline suggests elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates continue to constrain affordability. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 5.2% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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