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U.S. house prices continued to rise in the second quarter of 2026, with most states and metropolitan areas recording annual gains. Elevated borrowing costs and affordability constraints remained important headwinds, while limited housing supply continued to support prices in many markets, particularly across parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) quarterly purchase-only House Price Index (HPI), national house prices increased 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. This was slightly faster than the 1.9% annual gain reported for the first quarter. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, house prices rose 0.3%, moderating from the 0.6% increase in the previous quarter.

The FHFA’s purchase-only HPI tracks average price changes using more than six million repeat-sales transactions involving the same single-family properties. In addition to the national picture, the index provides valuable insight into house price trends across states and metropolitan areas.

At the state level, house price performance remained positive across most of the country. Among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, 47 states recorded year-over-year gains, while four posted declines. Thirty states matched or exceeded the national appreciation rate of 2.1%. Puerto Rico also registered an annual increase.

Alaska led the nation, with house prices rising 8.3% from a year earlier. Vermont followed with a 7.3% gain, while prices increased 5.8% in Hawaii. Illinois and West Virginia each posted gains of approximately 5.6%.

Other strong-performing states included Wisconsin and North Dakota, where prices rose about 4.8%, followed by Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. Although the strongest gains were not concentrated in a single region, many Midwest and Northeast states continued to outperform the national average.

At the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico recorded the largest annual decline, with house prices falling 1.2%. Washington declined 0.9%, Colorado fell 0.5%, and California edged down 0.2%.

Several other states, including Oregon, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, and Arizona, recorded annual appreciation of less than 1%. These results point to continued softness in several Western and Sun Belt markets, including some areas that experienced rapid price growth during the pandemic-era housing boom.

Quarterly performance was similarly uneven. Hawaii recorded the largest quarter-over-quarter increase at 4.7%, followed by Rhode Island at 2.4%. Conversely, Puerto Rico declined 2.6% from the first quarter, while New Mexico fell 1.7%.

House price performance varied even more widely across the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. Annual house price appreciation ranged from a decline of 3.7% to an increase of 7.7% in the second quarter of 2026.

Overall, 75 of the 100 metro areas posted year-over-year gains, while 22 recorded declines and three remained unchanged. Forty-nine metros matched or exceeded the national appreciation rate of 2.1%.

Elgin, Illinois, recorded the strongest annual appreciation among the 100 largest metros, with prices rising 7.7%. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pennsylvania–New Jersey, followed with a 7.0% increase.

Chicago, New York, Newark, and Greensboro rounded out the ten strongest annual performers. The rankings indicate continued strength in several Midwest and Northeast markets, where relatively limited housing supply may be helping support prices.

The weakest results were concentrated in portions of the West and Southwest. Everett, Washington, posted the largest annual decline at 3.7%, followed by San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas, at 3.0%.

Bakersfield-Delano, California, declined 2.6%, while Seattle and San Francisco each fell approximately 2.4%. Tucson, Albuquerque, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Washington, D.C.–Maryland, and Denver-Aurora-Centennial were also among the ten weakest-performing large metro areas.

Short-term changes sometimes diverged considerably from annual trends. Allentown posted a 4.3% quarterly increase, while Austin rose 3.7% from the first quarter despite a slight year-over-year decline.

By contrast, San Francisco posted a 9.1% quarter-over-quarter decline, the largest quarterly decline among the 100 metros, followed by Tucson at 5.3% and San Jose at 3.6%.

These large quarterly movements highlight the greater volatility in metro-level house price data. While year-over-year changes provide a better indication of underlying price trends, quarterly measures can help identify more recent shifts in local housing market conditions.

Note:

Unless otherwise noted, this blog post uses the quarterly purchase-only House Price Index (HPI), which measures the sales prices of homes that are bought and sold, rather than the broader all-transactions HPI. The purchase-only HPI provides a more precise view of current market conditions. Year-over-year change compares 2026 Q2 with 2025 Q2, while quarter-over-quarter change compares 2026 Q2 with 2026 Q1.



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According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased year-over-year during the second quarter of 2026. For the quarter, 117,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 109,000 were built-for-rent. This built-for-rent total was 5% higher than in the second quarter of 2025. Prior NAHB analysis suggests this expansion primarily occurred in smaller metro areas and lower density markets, given ongoing weakness in urban core areas.

The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 93% for the second quarter. A historical low market share of 47% for built-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period.

For the second quarter, there were 8,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, up slightly from a year ago (7,000) given ongoing housing affordability challenges.

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to the second quarter 2026 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts increased slightly to 1,053 square feet. The median, or typical unit, increased to 1,008 square feet. These measures are consistent with the elevated share of multifamily built-for-rent construction.



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Single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR, or built-to-rent (BTR)) construction fell back in the second quarter of 2026, as a higher cost of financing, increased multifamily supply and policy concerns over Congressional legislation related to institutional capital froze parts of the development market. Fortunately, changes by the House of Representatives addressed a harmful Senate proposal. The housing legislation, as enacted into law, does not include a prohibition against institutional capital financing BTR housing. Stabilization for BTR housing should be reached in the coming months.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 15,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the second quarter of 2026. This is down measurably from the second quarter of 2025 (18,000).

Over the last four quarters, 63,000 such homes began construction, which is a 16% decrease compared to the 75,000 estimated BTR starts for the prior four quarter period.

The BTR market is a source of inventory amid challenges regarding housing affordability and down payment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (just under 7%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys.

The Census data note an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging about 3% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible that some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given that these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.a

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines in the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing weakened year-over-year in the second quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 43, down three points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 74, down eight points year-over-year.

Multifamily developer sentiment is currently constrained by regulatory barriers and difficulty obtaining financing. The recently enacted 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act should provide some relief with respect to these challenges, but these policies will take time to implement. Meanwhile, rental housing demand is being supported by improving job growth during the second quarter of 2026. It is clear that supply-side headwinds continue to weigh on multifamily developer sentiment. In addition to relatively high interest rates and other financing issues, developers are finding it difficult to obtain approvals and utility connections in some parts of the country. High material prices and shortages of skilled labor also remain significant impediments

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MMS asks multifamily developers to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active. The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor. The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.

There were three components which experienced decreases year-over-year during the second quarter. The component measuring subsidized units fell seven points to 54, the component measuring mid/high-rise dropped four points to 32, and the component measuring garden/low-rise dipped two points to 48. Meanwhile, the component measuring built-for-sale units was the only one to increase year-over-year, up three points to 38.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The survey also asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments in markets where they are active as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Like the MPI, the MOI and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than poor. The MOI is a weighted average of three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized). 

Although all three components declined year-over-year, they all remained above the break-even point of 50 for the second quarter of 2026. The mid/high-rise component dropped 11 points to 62, the subsidized component decreased eight points to 82, and the garden/low-rise component fell seven points to 77.

The MMS was re-designed in 2023 to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys. Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.



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Real GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of 2026, as a pullback in government spending and slower growth in investment and exports, more than offset stronger consumer spending. Business investment continued to support growth, particularly through equipment and intellectual property products, while imports increased and remained a drag on headline GDP.

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, down from a 2.1% increase in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest GDP report also showed that inflationary pressures remained elevated. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 5.7% in the second quarter, up from 3.6% in the first quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, increased 5.1%, compared with a 4.6% increase in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index increased 3.4%, easing from 4.4% in the first quarter.

Breaking down the second-quarter data further, growth in real GDP primarily reflected gains in consumer spending, investment, and exports, which were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased during the quarter.

Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, accelerated in the second quarter, rising at an annual rate of 3.2% after a 0.5% increase in the first quarter. This acceleration helped offset weakness in other components of GDP and supported the broader measure of underlying private demand.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.9% in the second quarter, up from 1.7% in the first quarter. This measure suggests that private domestic demand strengthened even as headline GDP growth slowed.

Gross private domestic investment continued to expand in the second quarter, although at a slower pace than in the first quarter. Gains in equipment and intellectual property products supported business investment, while private inventories and some structures categories weighed on growth.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.4% in the second quarter. Strong gains in equipment (+15.2%) and intellectual property products (+8.8%) offset a decrease in structures (-5.0%). Meanwhile, residential fixed investment (RFI) rose 1.5%, making its first positive contribution after five consecutive quarters of weakness. Within the residential category, investment in single-family permanent site structures rose 4.4% at an annual rate, multifamily permanent site structures declined 1.8%, and spending on improvements fell 5.0%.

Government spending declined 0.8% in the second quarter, reversing the prior quarter’s boost and contributing to the slowdown in overall economic growth.

Trade activity remained positive but less supportive of GDP growth. Exports continued to increase, although at a slower pace than in the first quarter, while imports accelerated. Because imports are subtracted from GDP, the increase in imports reduced second-quarter headline growth.

For the common BEA terms and definitions, please access bea.gov/Help/Glossary.



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Housing’s share of the economy was 15.8% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest estimates of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This share is down from 15.9% in the first quarter and is at the lowest level since 2019. Residential construction, measured by residential fixed investment, rose for the first time in over a year, while households’ expenditure on housing services fell due to lower household consumption of utilities.

The more cyclical home building and remodeling component–residential fixed investment (RFI)–was 3.7% of GDP, even with the previous quarter. The second component, housing services, was 12.1% of GDP, down from 12.2% in the previous quarter. The graph below plots the share for housing services and RFI, along with housing’s total share of nominal GDP.

Housing service expenditures are much less volatile when compared to RFI due to the cyclical nature of RFI. Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP, while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle. However, the housing share of GDP lagged during the post-Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly in the single-family sector.

Residential Fixed Investment

In the second quarter, RFI contributed 5 basis points to the headline GDP growth rate. This was the first positive contribution to GDP from RFI since the fourth quarter of 2024. RFI was 3.7% of the economy, recording a $1.2 trillion seasonally adjusted annual pace.

RFI can be split into two segments, structures and equipment. Residential structure investment not only consists of new single-family and multifamily units but also includes manufactured homes, improvements, and dormitories. Residential equipment, which accounts for under 2% of total RFI, consists of furniture or household appliances that are purchased by landlords for rental to tenants. Real private investment in structures rose 1.3%, while investment in residential equipment rose 12.1%.

Breaking down the components of residential structures, single-family RFI rose 4.4%, while multifamily RFI fell 1.8%. Permanent site structure RFI, which is made up of single-family and multifamily RFI, rose 1.3%. The “other structures” RFI category was down 0.1% in the second quarter. This component consists primarily of manufactured homes, improvements, and dormitories. On a seasonally adjusted annual basis in the second quarter, private investment in permanent site structures was at $523.8 billion, while other structures totaled $639.3 billion.

Housing Services

The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services. Similar to RFI, housing services consumption can be broken into two components. The first component, housing, includes gross rents paid by renters, owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units), rental value of farm dwellings, and group housing. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach, because without this measure, increases in homeownership would result in declines in GDP. The second component, household utilities, is composed of consumption expenditures on water supply, sanitation, electricity, and gas.

For the second quarter, housing services represented 12.1% of the economy or $3.9 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Real housing services expenditure declined 0.1% at an annual rate in the second quarter. Real personal consumption expenditure for housing grew 1.1%, while real household utilities expenditures declined 8.2%.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) on housing services is the largest component of PCE, making up 17.9% in the second quarter. The second largest component of PCE is health care services, at 16.8%. Expenditure on services was $15.2 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in the second quarter, more than double the expenditure on goods ($6.9 trillion).



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In the second quarter of 2026, the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 61, down one point compared to the previous quarter. The RMI has remained in the low 60s consistently over the past year.

Even with this slight decline from the previous quarter, remodeler sentiment remains the standout sector within the housing industry, outperforming both its single-family and multifamily counterparts.  

With current mortgage rates above the median outstanding rate for existing homeowners, the incentive to remodel instead of purchasing a new home given the low levels of existing inventory persists due to this lock-in effect. Additionally, homeowners are sitting on record high real estate asset gains which they are able to tap into making it easier to fund remodeling projects. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and current cost pressures due to inflation are causing project delays, especially for larger ones. In the latest RMI survey, 74% of remodelers reported that their suppliers have increased prices of materials since March due to higher fuel costs, with the average increase in materials prices over that span being 6.7%. 

Nevertheless, based on the positive sentiment from the RMI and structural demand tailwinds, NAHB’s forecast for remodeling spending remains robust both in the short-term and over the long run.

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.” Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three components: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately-sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000).

In the second quarter of 2026, the Current Conditions Index averaged 70, unchanged from the previous quarter. The component measuring moderately-sized remodeling projects increased four points to 73, while the small projects component remained unchanged at 74 and the large projects component decreased three points to 64. 

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two components: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in, and the current backlog of remodeling projects.

In the second quarter of 2026, the Future Indicators Index averaged 52, down two points from the previous quarter. Both components decreased quarter-over-quarter but still remain above the break-even point of 50. The component measuring backlog of remodeling jobs was down two points to 54, while the component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in edged down one point to 51.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.



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State economic growth strengthened in the first quarter of 2026, with real GDP increasing in 46 states and the District of Columbia. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), state-level growth rates ranged from a 4.5% annualized increase in Washington to a 1.6% decline in South Dakota, while Delaware’s economy was essentially unchanged during the quarter.

Nationally, real GDP, measured at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, increased by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, led by downward revisions to imports, which are a subtraction in the GDP equation and nonresidential investments. Consumer spending, which is the backbone of the U.S. economy, was revised lower in the third estimate.   

Regionally, real GDP increased in all eight regions between the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Growth was comparatively higher compared to the previous quarter, with regional gains ranging from a 0.2% increase in the Plains region to a 3.6% increase in the Far West.           

The Pacific Northwest led state economic performance in the first quarter, with Washington (+4.5%) posting the strongest growth rate among all states. BEA reported that the information sector was the largest contributor to Washington’s economic expansion, reflecting continued strength in technology-related activity. California came in second with 3.7% real GDP growth, followed by North Carolina and South Carolina tied for third place with 3.2% real GDP growth. In contrast, South Dakota recorded the weakest performance, declining 1.6%, driven by the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector. Nebraska and Iowa declined by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively, while Delaware was unchanged.

The broad-based nature of growth across states suggests that economic activity improved considerably from the slower pace recorded at the national level in late 2025. While growth was widespread geographically, state-level results continued to reflect differences in industrial composition. States with significant exposure to information and professional services industries generally outperformed, while states more dependent on agriculture faced greater headwinds during the quarter.



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U.S. house prices continued to rise in the first quarter of 2026, but appreciation slowed markedly from the rapid pace seen during the pandemic-era housing boom. Higher mortgage rates, persistent affordability challenges, and softer demand weighed on price growth nationally. At the same time, local market conditions varied considerably. Some states and metropolitan areas continued to post solid gains, while others experienced flat or declining house prices.

According to the quarterly purchase-only House Price Index1 (HPI) released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), national house prices rose 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. This growth rate represented the slowest annual appreciation since the second quarter of 2012, signaling the continued cooling of house price growth after more than a decade of strong gains. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased a modest 0.5% from the fourth quarter of 2025.

The FHFA’s purchase-only HPI tracks average price changes using more than six million repeat-sales transactions involving the same single-family properties. In addition to the national picture, the index provides valuable insight into house price trends across states and metropolitan areas.

At the state level, house price performance remained positive across most of the country in the first quarter of 2026, although appreciation rates varied widely. Annual appreciation ranged from a 2.4% decline to a 16.3% gain.

Puerto Rico recorded the strongest annual appreciation, with house prices surging 16.3% from a year earlier. Among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, Illinois posted the largest gain (7.3%), followed by Alaska (5.5%), Vermont (4.9%), and Connecticut (4.7%). More broadly, many states across the Midwest and Northeast continued to outperform the national average.

At the other end of the spectrum, Colorado recorded the largest annual decline, with house prices falling 2.4% from a year earlier. Texas and the District of Columbia also posted modest declines, while several Western and Sun Belt states saw only limited appreciation. Many of the markets that experienced some of the strongest price growth during 2021–2022 continue to face affordability pressures and softer buyer demand.

Overall, 42 states and Puerto Rico reported annual house price gains. In addition, 31 states and Puerto Rico matched or exceeded the national appreciation rate of 1.7%, underscoring the resilience of many regional housing markets despite challenging financing conditions.

House price performance varied even more widely across metropolitan areas than at the state level. Among the nation’s 100 largest metro areas tracked by FHFA, annual house price appreciation ranged from a decline of 6.9% to an increase of 10.8% in the first quarter of 2026.

The strongest-performing metro areas were concentrated primarily in the Midwest and Northeast, where limited housing supply continued to support price growth. Several metro areas in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and Illinois posted especially strong annual gains, reflecting continued demand amid limited supply.

In contrast, some of the weakest-performing markets were located in Florida, Texas, and parts of the Mountain West. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas, recorded the steepest annual price decline among the top 100 metro areas, continuing a correction after several years of exceptionally rapid house price growth. Cape Coral–Fort Myers, Florida, also remained among the nation’s weakest housing markets, extending a trend of price declines amid cooling demand and a gradual rebalancing of market conditions.

Overall, one-third of the 100 largest metro areas posted annual price declines in the first quarter of 2026, while the remaining two-thirds recorded either positive appreciation or essentially flat price growth.

Note:

Unless otherwise noted, this blog post uses the quarterly purchase-only House Price Index (HPI), which measures the sales prices of homes that are bought and sold, rather than the broader all-transactions HPI. The purchase-only HPI provides a more precise view of current market conditions.



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Multifamily missing middle construction declined at the start of 2026.

The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has generally disappointed since the Great Recession.

For the first quarter of 2026, there were 4,000 2- to 4-unit housing unit construction starts. This was down significantly compared to the first quarter of 2025.

Over the last four quarters, there were 23,000 such starts, down slightly from the prior four quarter period (24,000). Despite some gains in 2025, this subsector of residential construction continues to underperform relative to its potential, due in part to zoning restrictions.

As a share of all multifamily production, 2- to 4-unit development was just 4% of total multifamily development for the fourth quarter. This remains lower than recent historical trends. From 2000 to 2010, such home construction made up a little less than 11% of total multifamily construction.

Construction of the missing middle has clearly lagged during the post-Great Recession period and will continue to do so without zoning reform focused on light-touch density.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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