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U.S. Economy Contracted in First Quarter of 2025

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The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time in three years, driven by a sharp surge in pre-tariff imports, softening consumer spending, and a decline in government spending.

According to the “advance” estimate  released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks the first quarter of economic contraction since the first quarter of 2022. NAHB predicted a 0.2% increase for the first quarter of 2025.

Furthermore, the data from the GDP report suggests that inflationary pressure persisted. The GDP price index rose 3.4% for the first quarter, up from a 2.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 3.6% in the first quarter. This is up from a 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The contraction in real GDP primarily reflected a sharp increase in imports and a decrease in government spending.

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, surged at an annualized rate of 41.3% in the first quarter, as businesses rushed to stockpile goods ahead of implementing tariffs. While goods imports spiked by 50.9%, services imports increased by 8.6%. The import surge contributed to a record-high trade deficit and subtracted more than five percentage points from the headline GDP figure.

Government spending decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter. Federal spending fell sharply by 5.1%, partially offset by a modest 0.8% increase in state and local government expenditures.

Consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, softened. It rose at an annual rate of 1.8%, the slowest pace in seven quarters. Spending on goods increased by 0.5%, while expenditure on services grew by 2.4%.

Private inventories were the largest contributor to the increase in gross private domestic investment.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased by 9.8%, with notable increases in equipment (+22.5%) and intellectual property products (+4.1%). Residential fixed investment posted a 1.3% gain, following a 5.5% increase in the previous quarter. Within residential categories, single-family structures rose 5.9%, improvements increased 3.6%, while multifamily structures fell 11.5%.

For the common BEA terms and definitions, please access bea.gov/Help/Glossary.

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Remodeling Market Sentiment Down in First Quarter

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Sentiment declined among remodelers in the first quarter of 2025, following a similar trend last month in single-family home builder sentiment. The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 63 in the first quarter, down five points compared to the previous quarter. While this reading is still in positive territory, this is only the second time since the first quarter of 2020 that the RMI has been as low as 63.

Tariffs and economic uncertainty were top-of-mind for consumers this quarter. Although almost all the data for the first quarter RMI were collected before the release of specific reciprocal tariffs, the debate and uncertainty over tariffs has had an effect on consumer confidence.   Moreover, remodelers responding to the special questions as part of the RMI survey reported that their suppliers have already increased prices by an average of 6.9% since January 20, due to the anticipated effect of tariffs. 

Nevertheless, strong tailwind factors, such as an aging population, aging housing stock, home equity gains post-COVID, and “locked-in” (definition) existing homeowners, will continue to keep remodeling spending solid for the foreseeable future according to NAHB’s forecast.  

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.”  Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three subcomponents: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000).  In the first quarter of 2025, the Current Conditions Index averaged 71, dropping four points from the previous quarter.  While the component measuring small-sized projects remained unchanged at 76, moderately-sized remodeling projects inched down one point to 72 and large remodeling projects fell 11 points to 64. However, all three components remained above 50 in positive territory.

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two subcomponents: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in, and the current backlog of remodeling projects. 

In the first quarter of 2025, the Future Indicators Index averaged 55, down six points from the previous quarter. Both subcomponents experienced decreases quarter-over-quarter, with the component measuring the backlog of remodeling jobs inched down one point to 58 and the component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in fell 11 points to 51.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.

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House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2024

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Following two straight quarters of deceleration, house price appreciation accelerated slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to the persistent high mortgage rates and low inventory. Although inventories of existing homes have improved from a year ago, the current 3.5-month supply remains below the 4.5- to 6-month supply that considered a balanced housing market.

Nationally, according to the quarterly all-transactions House Price Index (HPI) released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), U.S. house prices rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The year-over-year rate has decreased from a high of 20.6% in the second quarter of 2022, but is higher than the previous quarter’s rate of 5.2%.

The quarterly FHFA HPI not only reports house prices at the national level but also provides insights about house price fluctuations at the state and metro area levels. The FHFA HPI used in this article is the all-transactions index, measuring average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same single-family properties.  

Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, 49 states and the District of Columbia had positive house price appreciation. Vermont topped the house price appreciation list with an 8.9% gain, followed by New Jersey and Connecticut both with 8.3% gains. At the other end, Louisiana had the lowest house price appreciation (+2.1%), while Hawaii was the only state to experience a price decline (-4.3%). Among all 50 states and the District of Columbia, 31 states reached or exceeded the national growth rate of 5.4%. Compared to the third quarter of 2024, 32 out of the 50 states had an acceleration in house price appreciation in the fourth quarter.

House price growth widely varied across U.S. metro areas year-over-year, ranging from -4.9% to +24.7%. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 18 metro areas, in reddish color on the map above, had negative house price appreciation, while the remaining 366 metro areas experienced positive price appreciation. Punta Gorda, FL had the largest decline in house prices, while Cumberland, MD-WV saw the highest increase over the previous four quarters.

Additionally, house prices have increased dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally, house prices rose 53% between the first quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2024. More than half of metro areas saw house prices rise by more than the national price growth rate of 53%.

The table below shows the top and bottom ten markets for house price appreciation between the first quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2024. Among all the metro areas, house price appreciation ranged from 11.2% to 87.8%. Ocean City, NJ experienced the highest house price appreciation. Lake Charles, LA had the lowest appreciation for the third quarter in a row.

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Multifamily Developer Confidence Reflected Mixed Results in the Fourth Quarter

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Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing reflected mixed results year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to results from the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  The MMS produces two separate indices.  While the Multifamily Production Index (MPI) increased seven points to 48 year-over-year, it is still below the break-even point of 50.  The Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 81, up four points year-over-year.

An MPI below 50 is consistent with the decline in multifamily starts that the sector experienced in both 2023 and 2024.  Multifamily developers are slightly less pessimistic than they were at this time last year, but supply-chain problems and high interest rates remain serious barriers to a stronger market.  NAHB forecasts multifamily construction will decline again in the first half of 2025 before stabilizing toward the end of the year, with the industry supported by a low national unemployment rate.

Reflected by the MOI reading of 81, occupancy rates for owners of rental properties have remained solid even as they are continuing to struggle with high operating costs.

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.  The survey asks multifamily builders to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active.  The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor.

Three of the four components experienced year-over-year increases: the component measuring mid/high-rise units rose 13 points to 39, subsidized units increased 11 points to 52, and garden/low-rise units added one point 52.  The only component to experience a decline year-over-year was built-for-sale units, falling one point to 42.  However, only two MPI components (garden/low-rise and subsidized) were above the break-even point of 50.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The MOI is a weighted average of the three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized).  The survey asks multifamily builders to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments, in markets where they are active, as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Similar in nature to the MPI, the index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than report it as poor. 

All three components for the MOI experienced year-over-year gains.  The component measuring mid/high-rise units rose 10 points to 74, subsidized units increased by three points to 91, and garden/low-rise units added one point to 81.  All three MOI components were above the break-even point of 50.

The MMS was re-designed last year to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys.  Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.

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Student Housing Construction Investment Decreases in the Last Quarter of 2024

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Private fixed investment in student dormitories edged down by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $3.86 billion. This decline follows a 1.9% increase in the prior quarter. However, private fixed investment in dorms was 7.2% lower than a year ago, as the elevated interest rates place a damper on student housing construction.  

Private fixed investment in student housing experienced a surge after the Great Recession, as college enrollment increased from 17.2 million in 2006 to 20.4 million in 2011. However, during the pandemic, private fixed investment in student housing declined drastically from $4.4 billion (SAAR) in the last quarter of 2019 to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2021, as COVID-19 interrupted normal on-campus learning. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, college enrollment fell by 3.6% in the fall of 2020 and by 3.1% in the fall of 2021.  

Since then, private fixed investment has rebounded, as college enrollments show a slow but stabilizing recovery from pandemic driven declines. Effective in-person learning requires college students to return to campuses, boosting the student housing sector. Furthermore, the demand for student housing is growing robustly, because total enrollment in postsecondary institutions is projected to increase 8% from 2020 to 2030, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. 

Despite recent fluctuations, the student housing construction shows signs of recovery and is expected to grow in response to increasing student enrollment projections. 

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Remodeling Market Sentiment Improves in Fourth Quarter of 2024

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The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 68 for the fourth quarter of 2024, up five points compared to the previous quarter.

Remodelers are more optimistic about the market than they were earlier in the year, corroborated by NAHB’s recent analysis of home improvement loan applications.  Demand in many parts of the country was stronger than usual for the fall season, especially demand for larger projects, with leads coming in after the uncertainty about the November elections was removed.  Not only did the current conditions index for $50,000-plus projects show the greatest increase during the quarter, but the share of remodelers doing whole house remodeling reached a record high of 62%.  

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.”  Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three subcomponents: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000). In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Current Conditions Index averaged 75, increasing three points from the previous quarter.  All three components remained well above 50 in positive territory: large remodeling projects rose eight points to 75, moderate remodeling projects increased two points to 73, and small remodeling projects inched down one point to 76.

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two subcomponents: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in and the current backlog of remodeling projects. 

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Future Indicators Index was 61, up six points from the previous quarter.  The component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming jumped nine points to 62.  Meanwhile, the component measuring in the backlog of remodeling jobs rose two points to 59 quarter-over-quarter.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.

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Residential Construction Loan Volumes Decline Over the Third Quarter

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The total volume of outstanding acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans made by FDIC-insured institutions fell for the third consecutive quarter during the third quarter of 2024 to a volume of $490.7 billion, down from $495.8 billion in the second quarter. Interest rates remained higher over the third quarter, as the Fed issued its first rate cut at the end of the quarter in September. Future AD&C lending conditions are poised to improve as the Fed continues its easing cycle over the next year despite potential headwinds of higher Government deficits and economic uncertainty.

The volume of 1-4 family residential construction and land development loans totaled $90.8 billion in the third quarter, down 8.4% from one year ago. This year-over-year decline marked the fifth straight quarter where the total volume of outstanding loans declined compared to a year prior. All other real estate development loans totaled $399.9 billion in the third quarter, down $4.3 billion from the previous quarter.

It is worth noting, the FDIC data represent only the stock of loans, not changes in the underlying flows, so it is an imperfect data source. Lending remains much reduced from years past. The current amount of existing 1-4 family residential AD&C loans now stands 55% lower than the peak level of residential construction lending of $204 billion reached during the first quarter of 2008. Alternative sources of financing, including equity partners, have supplemented this capital market in recent years.

While the volume of 1-4 family residential AD&C loans fell during the third quarter, the volume of past due and nonaccrual residential AD&C loans rose above $1 billion for the first time since 2014. A majority of this outstanding total was made up of loans in nonaccrual status (typically a loan where the lender does not expect to receive payment) which totaled $505.9 million. The outstanding loan balance for those 30-89 days past due was $491.5 million and loans 90 days or more past due totaled $65.4 million. As a share of the total outstanding stock of 1-4 family residential AD&C loans ($90.8 billion), past due and nonaccrual loans ($1.0 billion) made up 1.2% of the outstanding stock of loans.

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2024 Third Quarter State-Level GDP Data

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 45 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2024 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Iowa reported no change during this time. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 6.9 percent increase at an annual rate in Arkansas to a 2.3 percent decline in North Dakota.

Nationwide, growth in real GDP (measured on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis) increased 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, which is roughly the same as the second quarter level of 3.0 percent. Retail trade, health care and social assistance, and information were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP across the country.

Regionally, real GDP growth increased in all eight regions between the second and the third quarter. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 3.9 percent increase in the Southwest region (Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) to a 1.4 percent increase in the Plains region (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota).

At the state level, Arkansas posted the highest GDP growth rate (6.9 percent) followed by Alabama (6.0 percent) and Mississippi (5.1 percent). On the other hand, three out of the seven states that makes up and Plains region, South Dakota (-0.8 percent), Nebraska (-1.4 percent), and North Dakota (-2.3 percent) along with Montana (-0.1 percent) posted an economic contraction in the third quarter of 2024.

The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry increased in 25 states, was the leading contributor to growth in five states including Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi, the states with the largest increases in real GDP. In contrast, this industry was the leading offset to growth in 14 states including North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana, the only states with declines in real GDP.

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House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Third Quarter 2024

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House prices posted modest annual growth for the third quarter of 2024, as elevated mortgage rates kept many potential home buyers away from the housing market. Nonetheless, housing inventory has improved in recent months.

Nationally, house price appreciation has decelerated for two straight quarters. According to the quarterly all-transactions House Price Index (HPI) released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), U.S. house prices rose 5.1% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the third quarter of 2023.

The quarterly FHFA HPI not only reports house prices at the national level, but also provides insights about house price fluctuations at the state and metro area levels. The FHFA HPI used in this article is the all-transactions index, measuring average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same single-family properties.  

Between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024, all 50 states and the District of Columbia had positive house price appreciation, ranging from 1.2% to 8.8%. New Jersey and Connecticut topped the house price appreciation list with an 8.8% gain. They were followed by Rhode Island with an 8.4% gain. Meanwhile, the District of Columbia had the lowest price growth (+1.2%). Among all 50 states and the District of Columbia, 29 states exceeded the national growth rate of 5.1%. Compared to the second quarter of 2024, 40 out of the 50 states had a deceleration in house price appreciation in the third quarter.

House prices have changed unevenly across U.S. metro areas, from the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2024. House price appreciation ranged from -9.0% to +19.1%. In the third quarter of 2024, 21 metro areas, in reddish color on the map above, had negative house price appreciation, while the remaining 363 metro areas experienced positive price appreciation.

Additionally, house prices have increased dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally, house prices rose 50.4% between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2024. More than half of the metro areas saw house prices rise by more than the national price growth rate of 50.4%.

The table below shows the top and bottom ten markets for house price appreciation between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2024. Among all the metro areas, house price appreciation ranged from 13.1% to 81.4%. Knoxville, TN has experienced the highest house price appreciation. Lake Charles, LA had the lowest appreciation.

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Best Quarter for Multifamily Missing Middle Construction in 17 Years

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The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties.

The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has generally disappointed since the Great Recession. However, there was a noticeable uptick for this type of housing construction in the most recent data. For the third quarter of 2024, there were 6,000 2- to 4-unit housing unit construction starts. This is double the pace of construction from a year prior.

As a share of all multifamily production, 2- to 4-unit development was just above 6% of total multifamily development for the third quarter. However this is still lower than recent historic trends. From 2000 to 2010, such home construction made up a little less than 11% of total multifamily construction. Construction of the missing middle has clearly lagged during the post-Great Recession period and will continue to do so without zoning reform focused on light-touch density. But recent data offer hope for additional housing supply for these kind of structures.

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