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The U.S. labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging position as policymakers weigh slower job growth against inflation pressures from rising oil prices.

Wage growth accelerated slightly in February, with average hourly earnings rising 3.8% year-over-year. This pace is 0.3 percentage points lower than a year ago. Importantly, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February, following a downwardly revised gain of 126,000 jobs in January. This marks the sixth monthly decline since January 2025 and the second-largest monthly job loss during that period.

Estimates for the previous two months were revised lower. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000 from +48,000 to -17,000, while the change for January was revised down by 4,000 from +130,000 to +126,000. Combined, these revisions reduced previously reported employment by 69,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January. Over the month, the number of persons unemployed rose by 203,000, while the number of persons employed declined by 185,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—declined 0.1 percentage points to 62.0%. This was the lowest rate since January 2022 and remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate decreased to 83.9%.

Health care, which has been the primary growth driver of payroll growth in recent months, lost 28,000 jobs in February, largely due to a strike at Kaiser Permanente during the BLS survey period. Employment in the information sector also trended down, shredding 11,000 jobs, while federal government cut another 10,000 jobs.  Meanwhile, the social assistance sector added 9,000 jobs, driven by gains in individual and family services (+12,000).

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector declined by 11,000 jobs in February, following an upwardly revised gain of 48,000 in January. Within the industry, residential construction shed 7,100 jobs, while non-residential construction lost 3,800 positions.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in February, including 929,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and nearly 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative, at a loss of 533 per month, reflecting losses in three of the past six months. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has seen a net loss of 46,100 jobs, marking the twelfth consecutive annual decline and the longest stretch of annual losses since the Great Recession. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,306,900 positions.

In February, the unemployment rate for construction workers edged down slightly to 4.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis, remaining relatively low compared with historical norms.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


Builder confidence moved lower to start the year as affordability concerns continue to weigh heavily with buyers, and builders continue to contend with rising construction costs.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 37 in January, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

While the upper end of the housing market is holding steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the lower and mid-range sectors. Buyers are concerned about high home prices and mortgage rates, with downpayments particularly challenging given elevated price to income ratios.

In a positive development, Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage rate fell to 6.06% as of Jan. 15, the lowest rate in three years and nearly 100 basis points below the same period last year.

Most responses to the January HMI survey were received prior to the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities in an effort to bring down mortgage interest rates. And while this latest policy action on the interest rate front was largely not factored in the HMI survey, builders continue to report several supply-side headwinds. 

The future sales component of the HMI dipped below 50 for the first time since September, indicating that builders continue to face several issues that include labor and lot shortages as well as elevated regulatory and material costs.

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported cutting prices in January, unchanged from December but the third consecutive month the share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in January, up from the 5% rate in December. The use of sales incentives was 65% in January, marking the 10th consecutive month this share has exceeded 60%.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All of the HMI subindices fell in January. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions declined one point to 41 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped three points to 23. The index measuring future sales fell three points to 49, marking the first time this component fell below the breakeven point of 50 since September.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell two points to 45, the Midwest held steady at 43, the South dropped one point to 35 and the West gained one point to 35.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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