The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that the economy will add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, with total employment1 increasing from 170.3 million to 176.2 million, a gain of 3.5%. This represents slower growth than the 10.9% recorded over the 2015-2025 decade. If employment growth were distributed evenly over the next decade, the projections would imply an average net gain of approximately 49,000 jobs per month.

Employment growth is expected to vary considerably across major industry sectors over the 2025–2035 decade. Utilities are projected to record the fastest growth rate, at 9.8%, driven largely by rising electricity demand, including demand associated with artificial intelligence (AI). However, given its relatively small employment base, the sector is projected to add just 58,800 jobs. The private healthcare and social assistance sector is expected to add more than 2.2 million jobs, accounting for approximately 37% of the total projected employment gain, as the population ages and demand for healthcare services increases. Professional, scientific, and technical services are projected to grow by 8.6%, adding 926,700 jobs, supported in part by demand for AI-related systems, research and development, and consulting services. In contrast, employment in federal government and retail trade is projected to decline.

Against this broader employment outlook, construction is projected to grow faster than the overall U.S. labor market. This analysis examines construction employment, with a particular focus on residential building construction and specialty trade contractors2, to identify the occupations expected to add the most jobs, grow the fastest, or experience employment declines.

1. Construction Industry Employment Outlook

Employment in the U.S. construction industry is projected to increase from approximately 8.27 million jobs in 2025 to 8.68 million in 2035, adding 410,700 jobs, or 5.0%. This growth exceeds the projected 3.5% increase in total U.S. employment, suggesting that construction will expand faster than the overall labor market over the next decade.

Within the construction industry, two segments are particularly relevant to residential construction:

Residential building construction is projected to add 34,200 jobs, representing 3.7% growth.

Specialty trade contractors are projected to add 270,600 jobs, representing 5.2% growth.

Together, these two segments account for approximately 74% of construction’s projected net employment gain. Specialty trade contractors are expected to contribute the largest share of the increase, reflecting their substantial role in electrical work, plumbing, heating and air conditioning, roofing, and other specialized construction activities.

However, specialty trade contractors serve both residential and nonresidential projects. Their projected employment growth therefore reflects demand across the broader construction market, rather than residential construction alone. Examining both segments provides complementary perspectives on employment trends relevant to residential construction while preserving this important distinction.

2. Occupational Employment Growth Projections

While industry-level projections indicate the overall pace of employment growth, occupational projections provide a more detailed picture of potential job gains and shifts in the composition of the construction workforce.

Residential Building Construction: Occupations with the Largest Projected Gains

Within residential building construction, projected employment gains are concentrated in occupations that support on-site construction, project coordination, and supervision.

Construction laborers are projected to record the largest gain, adding 13,900 jobs from 2025 to 2035, followed by carpenters, with an increase of 8,100 jobs. Construction managers are expected to add 5,100 jobs, while first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers are expected to gain 2,800 jobs. Project management specialists round out these leading occupations, with a projected increase of 1,700 jobs.

These projections highlight the continued importance of hands-on construction occupations, alongside management and supervisory roles. The expected gains span several stages of residential building activity, from on-site labor and carpentry to project oversight and coordination.

Specialty Trade Contractors: Strong Demand Across Major Trades

Projected employment gains are considerably larger across several occupations within specialty trade contractors.

Electricians are expected to record the largest increase, adding 65,700 jobs between 2025 and 2035. Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are projected to gain 40,900 jobs, followed by construction laborers, with an increase of 34,800 jobs. Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters are projected to add 27,900 jobs.

Supervisory and management occupations are also expected to contribute to employment growth. First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers are projected to gain 17,300 jobs, while construction managers are expected to add 11,200 jobs.

These projections highlight the importance of skilled trades in the broader construction workforce. Because specialty trade contractors serve both residential and nonresidential projects, these gains reflect employment trends across the broader construction market.

Taken together, the two industry groups show that workforce growth will extend beyond general construction labor to include skilled trades, supervision, and project management.

Occupations with the Fastest and Slowest Projected Growth Rates

While the number of additional jobs highlights where employment gains will be concentrated, percentage changes provide a complementary perspective by showing which occupations are expected to expand or contract most rapidly relative to their existing employment levels.

Within specialty trade contractors, solar photovoltaic installers are projected to grow by 35.5% from 2025 to 2035, followed by occupational health and safety specialists (+22.4%) and technicians (+19.7%). In residential building construction, data scientists are projected to grow by 30.0%, although the increase represents fewer than 100 jobs. These examples illustrate how rapid percentage growth may translate into relatively few additional jobs.

Conversely, several administrative occupations are projected to decline. In residential building construction, office clerks, secretaries and administrative assistants, and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks are each projected to decrease by 6.4%. Among specialty trade contractors, office clerks are projected to decline by 9,200 jobs (5.2%), while bookkeeping and accounting clerks and secretaries and administrative assistants are also expected to decrease. Selected craft occupations, including helpers of brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters, are projected to decline by 13.5%.

Overall, the projections reveal considerable variation across occupations, with some expanding rapidly while others face declining employment.

Conclusion

Construction employment is projected to grow faster than total U.S. employment from 2025 to 2035, with specialty trade contractors accounting for much of the industry’s net job gain. Construction laborers and carpenters are expected to lead gains in residential building construction, while electricians, HVAC mechanics and installers, construction laborers, and plumbers are projected to add the most jobs among specialty trade contractors. Solar photovoltaic installers stand out for their rapid projected growth, while several administrative and selected craft occupations are expected to decline. Together, these trends highlight the varied workforce demands facing the construction industry over the next decade.

Note: