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First Quarter 2026 Multifamily Construction Data – Eye On Housing

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According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased year-over-year during the first quarter of 2026. For the quarter, 107,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 103,000 were built-for-rent. This built-for-rent total was 21% higher than in the first quarter of 2025. Prior NAHB analysis suggests this expansion primarily occurred in smaller metro areas and lower density markets, given ongoing weakness in urban core areas.

The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 96% for the first quarter. A historical low market share of 47% for built-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period.

For the first quarter, there were 4,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, down significantly from a year ago (7,000) given ongoing housing affordability challenges.

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to the first quarter 2026 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts declined to 1,047 square feet. The median, or typical unit, posted a large decline to 960 square feet, the lowest on record. These measures are consistent with the elevated share of multifamily built-for-rent construction.



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2025 Regional and State-Level GDP Data – Eye On Housing

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In 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded nationally, with growth recorded across all states and the District of Columbia. The increase in GDP reflected broad-based economic momentum, supported by contributions from several major industries. At the state level, real GDP growth ranged from a 3.1 percent increase in Florida and South Carolina to a 0.3 percent increase in North Dakota.

Nationally, real GDP, measured at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, increased by 2.1 percent in 2025, led by gains in consumer spending and investment. However, growth in 2025 was much lower than in previous years.

Regionally, real GDP increased in all eight regions between 2024 and 2025. Growth was widespread, with regional gains ranging from a 1.4 percent increase in the Plains region to a 2.3 percent increase in the Far West, Southeast, and the Southwest regions, underscoring broad economic strength across the country.

State-level GDP growth in 2025 was broadly positive but uneven across the country, reflecting differences in industry composition and exposure to cyclical sectors. While most states expanded over the year, growth followed a volatile pattern, with widespread contractions early in the year followed by a strong midyear rebound and a softer finish. South Carolina and Florida led with 3.1 percent growth in real GDP, followed by New York (2.9 percent). Alaska and Utah tied for third place with 2.8 percent real GDP growth. Maryland, Maine, West Virginia, Wyoming, the District of Columbia, and North Dakota grew by less than 1 percent, ranging from 0.7 percent – 0.3 percent. Overall, variation in state performance was largely tied to the relative strength of key industries, including energy, manufacturing, and professional services.



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Fourth Quarter 2025 Multifamily Construction Data – Eye On Housing

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According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased year-over-year during the fourth quarter of 2025. For the quarter, 96,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 91,000 were built-for-rent. This built-for-rent total was 18% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase, and it is possible these numbers will be revised lower in future Census data given other multifamily data reporting.

The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 95% for the fourth quarter. A historical low market share of 47% for built-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period.

For the fourth quarter, there were 6,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, flat from a year ago.

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to the fourth quarter 2025 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts increased to 1,068 square feet. The median increased to 1,048 square feet. These measures are consistent with the elevated share of multifamily built-for-rent construction.



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2024 Data – Eye On Housing

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Persistently low homeowner and rental vacancy rates indicate that the U.S. housing market remains structurally undersupplied.

Comparing 2024 abnormally low vacancy rates with long-run equilibrium levels across U.S. metropolitan markets, NAHB estimates that approximately 1.2 million additional housing units are required to close the gap and restore vacancy rates to historical norms. This figure represents NAHB’s updated estimate of the structural housing deficit, defined as the cumulative amount of above-equilibrium construction needed to rebalance the market. NAHB’s baseline forecast suggests this adjustment could occur between 2026 and 2030, contingent on sustained home building activity.

Homeowner and rental vacancy rates are key indicators of housing market tightness and future price dynamics. In 2022, U.S. rental vacancy rates fell to 5.1%, the lowest level in decades, underscoring the severity of the post-pandemic housing shortage. By comparison, rental vacancy rates have averaged 6.6% since 2005, when the American Community Survey (ACS) began reporting these data. A surge in multifamily construction in 2024 led to improved rental availability across many metropolitan areas, with the national vacancy rate rising to 5.7% but remaining below the historic norm.

In contrast, single-family construction remains significantly constrained by structural barriers, including restrictive zoning regulations, limited land availability, and persistent labor shortages. As a result, owner vacancy rates continued to decline through 2023, reaching a record low of 0.8%, the lowest level observed in the ACS series. While showing a modest improvement in 2024, owner vacancy rates remain below 1%, compared with the post-2005 average of 1.8%, indicating that for-sale housing shortages persist nationally.

ACS data provide a granular view of vacancy rates across metropolitan areas and allow geographic identification of structural imbalances. The “long run” average vacancy rates can serve as a proxy for normal, or natural, vacancy rates. There are numerous reasons why normal vacancy rates may differ across metropolitan areas. For example, areas with mobile labor markets and higher population turnover will consistently experience higher vacancy rates. Vacation destination housing markets also naturally have higher vacancy rates, reflecting more volatile seasonal housing demand.

For example, according to NAHB’s estimates, the rental vacancy rates in Panama City, FL, and Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL, have hovered around 20% since 2005. The averages were even higher in Myrtle Beach, SC, fluctuating around 28%. In sharp contrast, many areas in California, including Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz-Watsonville, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, registered long-term rental vacancy rates below 4%.

In the case of homeowner properties, natural vacancy rates are usually lower, reflecting slower housing turnover, with owners moving in and out less often compared to renters. It is important to remember that owned seasonal (occasional use) properties do not affect the homeowner vacancy rate. In this context, the vacancy rate is the proportion of vacant units for sale within the combined stock of homeowner-occupied, sold but not yet occupied, and for-sale units. Therefore, vacation or other seasonal properties are excluded from this analysis.

Nevertheless, long-term homeowner vacancy rates tend to be higher in resort areas. Consistent with this pattern, several metro areas along the coast of Florida report some of the highest long-term owner vacancy rates. In Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL, and Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL, owner vacancy rates have fluctuated around 4% since 2005. By contrast, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, experienced owner vacancy rates below 1% most of the time.

The gap between the “natural” or long-run average vacancy rate and the current vacancy rate helps estimate the number of rental and for-sale units needed to restore vacancy rates to their long-run equilibrium. Unsurprisingly, large metro markets have the greatest shortage of vacant rental and for-sale units, mainly due to their size. In these areas, even a small percentage decrease below the long-run average vacancy rates can lead to a shortage of thousands of vacant units.

As of 2024, the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro area needed close to 40,000 rental units to bring the rental vacancy rate back to normal levels.  The rental shortages in the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ, and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD metro areas were around 20,000 units.

Similarly, the largest shortages of vacant units for sale were observed in major metropolitan areas, including Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-W; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ.

Adding vacancy shortages across metro areas with unusually low vacancy rates, there is a total shortage of about 1.2 million vacant units nationwide (almost equally split between rental and for-sale units).

NAHB’s estimates focus narrowly on the number of vacant units required to return current vacancy rates to their long-run equilibrium levels. They do not incorporate additional sources of housing shortfall, such as pent-up demand from suppressed household formation or the need to replace aging and obsolete housing stock. As a result, NAHB’s estimates should be interpreted as lower-bound estimates of the overall housing shortage and are smaller than estimates that explicitly attribute elevated rates of shared living arrangements and the unusually high share of young adults residing with parents to the U.S. housing shortage. While we admit we do not have definitive answers, we believe the estimates presented here provide a reasonable updated national assessment of the current structural housing deficit.



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2025 Third Quarter State-Level GDP Data – Eye On Housing

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In the third quarter of 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded nationally, with growth recorded across all states and the District of Columbia. The increase in GDP reflected broad-based economic momentum, supported by contributions from several major industries. At the state level, real GDP growth ranged from a 6.5 percent increase in Kansas to a 0.4 percent increase in North Dakota.

Nationally, real GDP, measured at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, increased 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025, led by growth in information; finance and insurance; and professional, scientific, and technical services.

Regionally, real GDP increased in all eight regions between the second and the third quarters of 2025. Growth was widespread, with regional gains ranging from a 4.2 percent increase in the New England region to a 4.8 percent increase in the Great Lakes region, underscoring broad economic strength across the country.

Service-providing sectors, including information, finance and insurance, and professional and business services, were key drivers of growth across many states. Agriculture and related industries played an especially important role in select states, including Kansas and South Dakota, which recorded the two highest growth rates in real GDP during the quarter. Manufacturing activity, particularly in durable goods, also contributed to higher output in several regions, including Arkansas and Connecticut, which posted the third- and fourth-largest increases in real GDP, respectively. While most states experienced strong expansion, a small number of states and the District of Columbia posted more modest gains, highlighting regional differences in economic performance.

At the industry level, information services, finance and insurance, and professional, scientific, and technical services were the most consistent contributors to GDP growth nationwide. However, several sectors weighed on growth in specific regions, including management of companies and enterprises; government and government enterprises; nondurable goods manufacturing; and construction, all of which contracted during the third quarter.

Overall, the third quarter state GDP data point to a broadly expanding U.S. economy, with growth evident across all states and supported by a diverse mix of industries. Although the drivers of growth varied by region, reflecting differences in industrial composition, the widespread gains in economic output underscore resilient economic activity at both the state and national levels and suggest continued momentum in overall GDP.



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Third Quarter 2025 Multifamily Construction Data – Eye On Housing

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According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased during the third quarter of 2025. For the quarter, 119,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 114,000 were built-for-rent. This built-for-rent total was 31% higher than the third quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase, and it is possible these numbers will be revised lower in future Census data given other multifamily data reporting.

The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 95% for the third quarter. A historical low market share of 47% for built-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period.

For the third quarter, there were 5,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, a decrease from a year ago.

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding the typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to the third quarter 2025 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts decreased to 1,052 square feet. The median declined to 1,006 square feet. These measures are consistent with the elevated share of multifamily built-for-rent construction.



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2025 First Quarter State-Level GDP Data

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in ten states in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Thirty-nine states reported real GDP declines, while the District of Columbia and Delaware reported no change during this time. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 1.7 percent increase at an annual rate in South Carolina to a 6.1 percent decline in Iowa and Nebraska.

Nationwide, growth in real GDP (measured on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis) declined 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025. This is the first decline in quarterly real GDP levels in three years. The leading contributors to the decrease in real GDP across the country were finance and insurance; agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; and wholesale trade.

Regionally, real GDP growth declined in seven out of the eight regions between the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Southeast region was the only territory to post a meager 0.3 percent increase. The percent change in real GDP declines ranged from a 0.3 percent decline in the Southwest and Far West regions, to a 3.3 percent decline in the Plains region.

At the state level, South Carolina posted the highest GDP growth rate (1.7 percent), followed by Florida (1.4 percent) and Alabama (1.0 percent). The percent increase in real GDP ranged from a 1.7 percent increase in South Carolina to a 0.1 percent increase in Georgia. On the other hand, 39 states reported real GDP declines ranging from a 0.1 percent decline in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas, to a 6.1 percent decline in Iowa and Nebraska for the first quarter of 2025.

Looking at industry contributions to GDP across states, the “real estate and rental and leasing industry” was the leading contributor to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In contrast, the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry led a decrease in 39 states, and was the leading contributor to economic contraction in 11 states.

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2024 Third Quarter State-Level GDP Data

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 45 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2024 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Iowa reported no change during this time. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 6.9 percent increase at an annual rate in Arkansas to a 2.3 percent decline in North Dakota.

Nationwide, growth in real GDP (measured on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis) increased 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, which is roughly the same as the second quarter level of 3.0 percent. Retail trade, health care and social assistance, and information were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP across the country.

Regionally, real GDP growth increased in all eight regions between the second and the third quarter. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 3.9 percent increase in the Southwest region (Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) to a 1.4 percent increase in the Plains region (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota).

At the state level, Arkansas posted the highest GDP growth rate (6.9 percent) followed by Alabama (6.0 percent) and Mississippi (5.1 percent). On the other hand, three out of the seven states that makes up and Plains region, South Dakota (-0.8 percent), Nebraska (-1.4 percent), and North Dakota (-2.3 percent) along with Montana (-0.1 percent) posted an economic contraction in the third quarter of 2024.

The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry increased in 25 states, was the leading contributor to growth in five states including Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi, the states with the largest increases in real GDP. In contrast, this industry was the leading offset to growth in 14 states including North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana, the only states with declines in real GDP.

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Import Data for Residential Construction Materials

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NAHB estimates that $184 billion worth of goods were used in the construction of both new multifamily and single-family housing in 2023. Additionally, we estimate that $13 billon of those goods were imported from outside of the U.S. These figures lead to 7% of all goods used in new residential construction originating from a foreign nation. This data come from the BEA input-output accounts, which reveals important details of numerous industries across the U.S. detailing what products they produce, use and import in the economy. The latest tables are from 2017 and the data is adjusted to 2023 dollar value.

Import use varies significantly by type of building product. Shown above are the ten most import reliant products that are used in new residential construction. These products are defined by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

The U.S Census Bureau reports data on international trade of goods by NAICS definitions. With this, we can locate which nations are responsible for importing products used in residential construction into the U.S. Using the commodities that are used in residential construction, a significant share comes from China, at 27%. Mexico was the second most important nation with around 11% followed by Canada at 8%. Shown below are the countries with the 10 highest shares along with the remaining 27% from countries outside the top 10.

Tariff Impact

During the election campaign, President Trump promised the enactment of a tariff plan ranging from 10%-20% on imported goods, with 60% tariffs on imports from China. A tariff is essentially a tax on an imported good, meaning the importer pays an additional tax for importing such an item from another country. For example, say a business in the United States needed to purchase a $100 worth of screws from China. With a 60% tariff, the business would then need to pay an additional $60 to the U.S. Government to receive the screws. The exporter in China would still receive the $100 from the business and not pay the added tariff costs. The tariff cost falls on the importer, who would absorb the higher costs through lower profit margins or raising their own prices for consumers.

Without additional detail for these tariff proposals, it is difficult to estimate the impact of these tariffs. Using our best estimate, a 10% tariff on all imports with a 60% tariff on imports directly from China would result in a $3.2 billion increase in the cost of imported building materials used in residential construction. By product, the largest increase in cost would be for household appliances, where 54% of imports come from China, this tariff adds $670 million for these imported products. Additionally, a 20% tariff coupled with 60% imports from China would result in $4.2 billion in added cost of imported residential building products.  

From Canada, the U.S. imports a significant amount of wood related products. In 2023, 70% of sawmill and wood product imports came from Canada. Many of these wood products from Canada are already subject to tariffs, with the current rate at 14.5%. Total imports of sawmill and wood products from Canada in 2023 was $5.8 billion. The highest valued import from Canada was nonferrous metals, totaling $17.6 billion in 2023.

Turning to Mexico, 71% of lime and gypsum products imported in 2023 originated from Mexico. While this share is particularly high, the total value of imports in 2023 of lime and gypsum was only $456 million. The highest valued import from Mexico at $28.6 billion in 2023 was computer equipment, where imports from Mexico made up 23% of total imports of computer equipment in 2023.

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Weaker Homeownership Data for Younger Households

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The homeownership rate for those under the age of 35 dropped to 37% in the third quarter of 2024, reaching the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Amidst elevated mortgage interest rates and tight housing supply, housing affordability is at a multidecade low. The youngest age group, who are particularly sensitive to mortgage rates, home prices, and the inventory of entry-level homes, saw the largest decline among all age categories.

The U.S. homeownership rate held steady at 65.6% in the third quarter of 2024, showing a flat trend over the last three quarters.  However, this marks the lowest rate in the last two years. The homeownership rate remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.4%.

The national rental vacancy rate went up to 6.9% for the third quarter of 2024, and the homeowner vacancy rate inched up to 1%. The homeowner vacancy rate remains close to the survey’s 67-year low of 0.7%.

Homeownership rates declined across all age groups compared to a year ago, except for those aged 55-64. Householders under 35 experienced the largest drop, declining by 1.3 percentage points from 38.3% to 37%. The 45-54 age group also saw a 1.3 percentage point decrease, decreasing from 71% to 69.7%. For householders aged 35-44, who experienced a modest 0.6 percentage point decline. Among those 65 years and over, homeownership inched down slightly from 79.2% to 79.1%. In contrast, the homeownership rate of the 55–64 age group rose to 75.9% from 75.4%.

The housing stock-based HVS revealed that the count of total households increased to 132.1 million in the third quarter of 2024 from 130.3 million a year ago. The gains are largely due to gains in both renter household formation (1.1 million increase), and owner-occupied households (655,000 increase).

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