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Consumer Confidence Fell in September – Eye On Housing

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Consumer confidence in September plunged to the lowest level since April 2014 as consumers grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the economic outlook. This report captured consumer sentiment following the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023 and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Consumer views of business conditions turned negative for the first time in two years, while the labor market outlook continued to worsen. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing jobs as plentiful and hard-to-get, remained narrow and reached its lowest level since February 2021.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 89.4 to 81.9 in September, the lowest level since April 2014. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 11.9 points to 109.3, the lowest level since February 2021; the Expectation Situation Index declined 4.6 points to 63.6, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since April 2025. This is the twentieth consecutive month for which the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions worsens in September. The share of respondents rating business conditions as “good” decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.5%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 2.8 percentage points to 20.4%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market were more negative in September. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” fell by 3.4 percentage points to 23.6%, the lowest level since February 2021; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 2.4 percentage points to 21.9%, the highest level since January 2021.

Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve decreased from 16.8% to 15.9%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate increased from 23.1% to 25.4%. Meanwhile, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” fell from 14.6% to 14.0%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” rose by 2.3 percentage points to 28.4%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home rose slightly to 5.4% in September. Of those, the shares planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home decreased to 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively. The remaining 2.6% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.



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Affordability Pressures Keep Builder Confidence Low – Eye On Housing

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Builder sentiment remains muted from economic and geopolitical uncertainty, elevated mortgage rates and rising construction costs.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up one point to 35 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

August marked the 16th straight month that at least 30% of builders reported cutting prices to support demand, as well as the 16th consecutive month with the HMI below 40. Custom home builders continue to report stronger market conditions than spec builders, reflecting better conditions at the higher end of the market. Smaller, less dense markets are also outperforming larger metropolitan areas, and smaller builders report relatively stronger conditions than larger builders.

Rising gas and diesel prices are pushing up material costs, and spec home building remains weak as many prospective buyers stay on the sidelines. However, the Midwest remains a bright spot for the home building industry, with new home sales up in that region more than 2% so far in 2026.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 35% of builders cut prices in August, down from 37% in July, and unchanged from June (35%). The average price reduction was 6% in August, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 63% in August, unchanged from the previous month.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The index measuring current sales conditions increased two points to 39, while the indexes for future sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic held steady at 43 and 23, respectively.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 44, the Midwest held steady at 45, the South fell two points to 31 and the West was unchanged at 27.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.



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Multifamily Developer Confidence Weakens in Second Quarter – Eye On Housing

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Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing weakened year-over-year in the second quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 43, down three points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 74, down eight points year-over-year.

Multifamily developer sentiment is currently constrained by regulatory barriers and difficulty obtaining financing. The recently enacted 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act should provide some relief with respect to these challenges, but these policies will take time to implement. Meanwhile, rental housing demand is being supported by improving job growth during the second quarter of 2026. It is clear that supply-side headwinds continue to weigh on multifamily developer sentiment. In addition to relatively high interest rates and other financing issues, developers are finding it difficult to obtain approvals and utility connections in some parts of the country. High material prices and shortages of skilled labor also remain significant impediments

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MMS asks multifamily developers to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active. The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor. The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.

There were three components which experienced decreases year-over-year during the second quarter. The component measuring subsidized units fell seven points to 54, the component measuring mid/high-rise dropped four points to 32, and the component measuring garden/low-rise dipped two points to 48. Meanwhile, the component measuring built-for-sale units was the only one to increase year-over-year, up three points to 38.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The survey also asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments in markets where they are active as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Like the MPI, the MOI and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than poor. The MOI is a weighted average of three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized). 

Although all three components declined year-over-year, they all remained above the break-even point of 50 for the second quarter of 2026. The mid/high-rise component dropped 11 points to 62, the subsidized component decreased eight points to 82, and the garden/low-rise component fell seven points to 77.

The MMS was re-designed in 2023 to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys. Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Consumer Confidence Inched Up in June – Eye On Housing

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Consumer confidence inched up in June due to improved views of business conditions and recent declines in oil prices easing inflation fears. However, the consumers’ view of the labor market continued to weaken, despite recent strong job reports; The share of respondents saying jobs are ‘hard to get’ reached a five-and-a-half-year high. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing jobs as plentiful and hard-to-get, remained narrow and reached its lowest level since February 2021. Overall, consumer confidence remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index rose from 90.6 to 91.2 in June. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In June, the Present Situation Index decreased 3.0 points to 116.4, the lowest level since February 2021; the Expectation Situation Index increased 3.0 points  to 74.4, the highest level this year. This is the seventeenth consecutive month for which the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions improved in June. The share of respondents rating business conditions as “good” increased by 0.8 percentage points to 20.0%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” fell by 0.2 percentage points to 16.5%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market were mixed in June. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” rose by 0.1 percentage points to 24.9%; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 2.7 percentage points to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021.

Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve rose from 18.8% to 19.0%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate decreased from 23.2% to 20.3%. However, expectations of employment over the next six months were unchanged. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” fell from 16.6% to 15.2%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” declined by 1.4 percentage points to 25.6%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home rose slightly to 6.6% in June. Of those, the shares planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home were unchanged at 0.7% and 3.0%, respectively. The remaining 2.9% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Multifamily Developer Confidence Holds Steady in First Quarter – Eye On Housing

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Overall confidence in the market for new multifamily housing held steady year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 44, unchanged year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 69, dropping 13 points year-over-year.

Multifamily developer sentiment is roughly where it was at this time last year, although the combination of regulatory hurdles, interest rates, insurance costs and volatility in material prices is threatening the viability of some projects. Also, in some markets, developers are reporting that it has become more difficult to obtain permits for unsubsidized projects.

The MPI and MOI continue to show that the market for garden and low-rise apartments typical of outlying areas is stronger than the market for mid- and high-rise apartments. The gap is narrowing year-over-year for new multifamily construction (i.e., blue line), while widening for the occupancy of existing apartments (i.e., orange line). NAHB is projecting that multifamily starts will increase slightly in 2026, but current production rates are unlikely to be sustained through 2027.

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MMS asks multifamily developers to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active. The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor. The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.

There were two components which experienced increases year-over-year, while the other two experienced decreases during the first quarter. The component measuring mid/high-rise rose seven points to 35, while the component measuring subsidized units increased six points to 56. On the other hand, the component measuring garden/low-rise fell six points to 48 while the component measuring built-for-sale units inched down one point to 37. Only the component measuring subsidized units was above the break-even point of 50.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The survey also asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments in markets where they are active as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Like the MPI, the MOI and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than poor. The MOI is a weighted average of three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized). 

All three MOI components experienced year-over-year decreases in the first quarter of 2026; the mid/high-rise component dropped 17 points to 59, the garden/low-rise component fell 11 points to 71, and the subsidized component decreased nine points to 80. Nevertheless, all three MOI components remain well above the break-even point of 50.

For more recent information about the market, the survey contains a separate question asking multifamily developers to compare current market conditions to conditions three months earlier. In the first quarter of 2026, 21% of respondents said the current market is better, and 19% said it is worse. However, the majority of developers—60%—said that the market is currently about the same as it was three months ago.

The MMS was re-designed in 2023 to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys. Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Consumer Confidence Climbs Despite Oil Price Surge – Eye On Housing

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Consumer confidence in March rose to a three-month high as consumers’ improved view of current business and labor market conditions outweighed weaker future expectations. Despite the increase, consumers remained concerned as inflation expectations surged to a seven-month high due to the Iran war and job worries from economic uncertainty. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing jobs as plentiful and hard-to-get, remained narrow and reached its second lowest level since February 2021.This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index rose from 91.0 to 91.8 in March, the highest level this year. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In March, the Present Situation Index increased 4.6 points from 118.7 to 123.3, the largest monthly increase since November 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped 1.7 points from 72.6 to 70.9. This is the fourteenth consecutive month for which the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions improved in March. The share of respondents rating business conditions as “good” increased by 1.5 percentage points to 21.9%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” fell by 2.7 percentage points to 16.3%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market were mixed in March. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” rose by 0.6 percentage points to 27.3%; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 0.5 percentage points to 21.5%, the highest level since February 2021.

Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve rose from 17.6% to 18.2%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate slightly increased from 21.2% to 21.3%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” fell from 16% to 15.4%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” rose by 1.7 percentage points to 27.9%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home fell slightly to 5.7% in March. Of those, the shares planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home were unchanged at 0.7% and 2.6%, respectively. The remaining 2.4% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.



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Consumer Confidence Dropped to Lowest since Tariffs Introduced – Eye On Housing

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Consumer confidence in December fell to the lowest level since April’s tariff implementation, reflective of growing concerns about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market affecting personal finances. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, continued to narrow and is now at its lowest level since February 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The decline in confidence stands in contrast to the recent solid GDP report for the third quarter.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 92.9 to 89.1 in December, the lowest level since April. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 9.5 points from 126.3 to 116.8, the largest monthly decline since September 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped remained unchanged at 70.7. This is the eleventh consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions deteriorated in December. The share of respondents rating business conditions “good” decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 18.7%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 3.3 percentage points to 19.1%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market cooled further in December. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” fell by 1.5 percentage points to 26.7%, the lowest level since March 2021; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” rose by 0.7 percentage points to 20.8%, the highest since February 2021.

Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve fell from 18.1% to 18.0%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate declined from 25.1% to 21.8%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” remained unchanged at 16.5%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” rose by 0.6 percentage points to 27.4%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home fell slightly to 5.7% in December, the lowest level since August. Of those, respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home fell to 0.5%, and those planning to buy an existing home was unchanged at 2.4%. The remaining 2.8% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.



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Multifamily Developer Confidence Increases in Third Quarter, But Still in Negative Territory

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Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing increased year-over-year in the third quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 46, up six points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 74, down one point year-over-year.

The MPI and MOI are giving a mixed picture, creating a bifurcation of the multifamily market.  While MPI is still in negative territory, developers of low-rise market-rate and subsidized rental properties express increased optimism, with both components above 50 for the quarter.  Weakness is concentrated in the mid-to-high-rise and condominium developments which tend to be common in high-density metro areas.  This is consistent with NAHB’s Home Building Geography Index where multifamily construction activity is growing in areas with low population densities but weakening in the larger metros. 

Even though MOI is in positive territory and existing apartment owners are positive about occupancy overall, this is the lowest reading since NAHB redesigned the survey starting in Q1 2023.  Sentiment for mid/high-rise apartment occupancy is noticeably weaker than it is for the other two rental market segments.

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MMS asks multifamily developers to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active.  The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor. The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.

All four components experienced year-over-year increases in the third quarter of 2025: both the components measuring mid/high rise and subsidized units jumped up nine points to 37 and 55, respectively, the component measuring built-to-sale units increased six points to 35, and the component measuring garden/low-rise units increased three points to 51.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The survey also asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments, in markets where they are active, as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Like the MPI, the MOI and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than as poor.  The MOI is a weighted average of three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized). 

Two of the three MOI components experienced year-over-year decreases in the third quarter of 2025; the component measuring subsidized units fell by five points to 81 and the garden/low-rise component dipped one point to 76.  Meanwhile, the component measuring mid/high-rise units was unchanged at 66.  All three MOI components remain well above the break-even point of 50.

The MMS was re-designed in 2023 to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys.  Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.

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Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level

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Elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and ongoing supply-side challenges continued to act as a drag on builder confidence in August, as sentiment levels remain in a holding pattern at a low level.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in August, down one point from July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May.

Housing affordability is central to the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed’s monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates.

In further signs of a soft housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in August, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point in August to a level of 35 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 22 but remains at a very low level.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 44, the Midwest gained one point to 42, the South dropped one point to 29 and the West declined one point to 24. The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Multifamily Developer Confidence Increases in Second Quarter

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Confidence in the market increased for multifamily developers in the second quarter of 2025, according to  the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  The MMS produces two separate indices.  The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) was up two points year-over-year to 46.  The Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 82, up one point year-over-year.

Multifamily developer confidence experienced a slight increase compared to last year, most notably from the subsidized subcomponent.  This is due in part to optimism surrounding the expansion of federal affordable housing resources flowing from the recent congressional reconciliation bill.  However, high interest rates, rising construction costs, limited land availability and restrictive local regulations are still significant issues in certain parts of the country.  Even with these headwinds, multifamily starts are becoming less constrained as the number of apartments under construction falls and normalizes.  As a result, NAHB is forecasting starts to be modestly higher in 2025 compared to 2024, but well below levels experienced in 2023.

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MMS asks multifamily developers to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active.  The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor. The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.

Two components experienced year-over-year increases: the component measuring subsidized units jumped 10 points to 61 and the components measuring mid/high-rise rose seven points to 36.   The component measuring garden/low-rise and built-to-sale units both fell three points year-over-year to 50 and 35, respectively.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The survey also asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments, in markets where they are active, as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Like the MPI, the MOI and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than report it as poor.  The MOI is a weighted average of three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized). 

Two of the three MOI components experienced year-over-year increases in the second quarter of 2025.  The component measuring subsidized units rose by five points to 90 and the garden/low-rise component increased two points to 84.  Meanwhile, the component measuring mid/high-rise units fell three points to 73.  Nevertheless, all three MOI components remain well above the break-even point of 50.

The MMS was re-designed in 2023 to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys.  Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.

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