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15% ROI, 5% down loans!”,”body”:”3.99% rate, 5% down! Access the BEST deals in the US at below market prices! 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Most investors think that diversity is the key to protecting their wealth. They’ve got money in real estate, the stock market, and maybe even some private equity deals. 

That’s good, right? Not always.

The problem? Diversification is NOT the same as liquidity. Too many accredited investors have their wealth tied up in assets that can’t be accessed when they need it most. And in today’s environment, where banks are tightening credit, real estate distributions are slowing, and cash flow isn’t as predictable, that’s a major risk.

Imagine needing $50K, $100K, or even $250Ktomorrow. 

Could you get it without selling assets at a loss? If the answer is no, your balance sheet isn’t as strong as you think.

The good news? You can fix this before a crisis forces your hand.

Let’s talk about how to build a fortress balance sheet that ensures you have cash flow, liquidity, and protection—no matter what the market throws at you.

What Happens When Investors Ignore Liquidity?

Let’s look at two investors: Ryan and Emily. Both are accredited investors with $2M+ in net worth. Both invest in private real estate deals, stocks, and alternative assets. But when the market shifted, only one of them stayed in control.

Ryan: The investor who got stuck

Ryan had $1.5M in rental real estate, $500K in stocks, and only $50K in cash reserves. He thought his rentals would always provide cash flow. Until he had to lower rents to keep his rentals filled, and suddenly—Ryan had zero cash flow.

When he needed liquidity, he had to sell stocks at a loss and pull money from a high-rate margin loan. Stressful. Expensive. Unnecessary

Emily: The investor who stayed in control

Emily structured her investments differently. She had $150K in liquid reserves, spread across multiple banks, T-bills, and money market funds. She also secured a $300K line of credit before she needed it. 

When her rental cash flow slowed, Emily didn’t panic—she had access to cash and credit. She stayed invested, avoided forced sales, and when a great investment opportunity came up, she had the liquidity to take advantage of it.

Key takeaway

Investors like Emily win long-term because they control their liquidity. Investors like Ryan? They learn this lesson the hard way.

Which one are you?

How: 5 Steps to Build Your Fortress Balance Sheet

The best investors don’t just think about returns—they think about risk, liquidity, and flexibility. Here’s how you can start protecting your wealth today.

Step 1: Take the portfolio stress test

Most investors don’t realize they have a liquidity problem until it’s too late. Let’s test your balance sheet right now.

If your passive income stopped today, how long could you cover your expenses?

  • A) 6+ months 
  • B) 3-6 months 
  • C) Less than 3 months (High risk!)

If you needed $50K tomorrow, where would it come from?

  • A) Liquid reserves/LOC
  • B) Forced asset sale
  • C) No clue (Fix this ASAP!)

If you answered B or C, your liquidity plan needs work.

Step 2: Hold enough cash reserves (but not too much)

  • Aim for six to 12 months of living and business expenses in liquid cash.
  • Spread reserves across multiple banks to stay within FDIC insurance limits.
  • Use high-yield money market accounts and T-bills instead of leaving cash in low-interest checking.

Action item: Check how much liquidity you have. Would it cover you for six months if all cash flow stopped tomorrow?

Step 3: Secure lines of credit before you need them

When a recession or credit crunch hits, banks stop lending. Get access to capital before you need it.

  • Open a HELOC, business line of credit, or securities-backed loan.
  • Don’t use it to invest—just have it ready as an emergency buffer.
  • If you already have a line of credit, request a credit increase now.

Action item: Call your bank this week and inquire about setting up a line of credit.

Step 4: Diversify banking and use alternative cash storage

Bank failures are rare—but they happen. Protect your liquidity with multiple banking relationships.

  • Keep cash in at least two different banks with separate account types.
  • Use Treasury bills (T-bills) and brokerage accounts for higher yields and protection.
  • Have an emergency reserve in a money market fund or cash value life insurance.

Action item: Check how much cash you have in one bank versus spread out across different institutions. If you’re overexposed to a single bank, fix it.

Step 5: Strengthen your risk protection plan

  • Do you have an umbrella liability policy? If not, get one.
  • Is your property insurance replacement cost or cash value? Make sure you have the right coverage.
  • Do you have estate planning in place? If not, schedule a review with an attorney.

Action item: Pull up your insurance policies. Are they structured to protect your wealth?

Want to Protect and Scale Your Wealth?

Building a fortress balance sheet isn’t about fear—it’s about power and control. If you want to ensure your investments are structured for both protection and growth, I’ve put together a Liquidity & Wealth Protection Playbook to help you optimize your financial security.

  • Follow me on BiggerPockets (insert link).
  • DM me the codeword FORTRESS” and I’ll send you my Liquidity & Wealth Protection Playbook—the same system I use to help investors stay in control, no matter what the market does.

With the right structure, you don’t just survive market shifts—you profit from them. Let’s make sure you’re on the right side of that equation.

Protect your wealth legacy with an ironclad generational wealth plan

Taxes, insurance, interest, fees, bills…how can you acquire wealth, let alone pass it down, when there are major pitfalls at every turn? In Money for Tomorrow, Whitney will help you build an ironclad wealth plan so you can safeguard your hard-earned wealth and pass it on for generations to come.  



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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released on Wednesday morning, with inflation once again coming in below expectations for the fourth straight month. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% month over month and 2.8% year over year. Overall CPI came in at 2.4%, which matched or came in below some estimates.

While most prices were stable or declined, prices for toys jumped the most since 2023, and appliances posted their largest price hike in nearly five years. Those two categories are among the most exposed to Chinese imports, which, of course, is part of the tariff calculus that we’ll get into later.

Regardless, the S&P 500 opened higher, Treasuries rallied, and traders are now betting there’s a 75% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates by September.

The ultimate takeaway? Inflation has cooled and isn’t a “problem” anymore. The bigger question now is what the Fed does with that information.

Does the Fed Have an Excuse to Not Cut Rates?

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate:

  1. Keep prices stable.
  2. Maximize employment.

The keyword in No. 1 is “stable.” It doesn’t necessarily mean low, although that’s the target. It simply means stable, which really means predictable. You could make the argument that prices are unpredictable now, given the situation surrounding tariff policy, but I also think that’s become an overblown story at this point.

Why? The reality with tariffs is that most of them have been scaled back significantly. This timeline from the New York Times paints that picture quite effectively. The president, on multiple occasions, has scaled back or delayed threatened tariffs while working through individual deals with countries. He’s also been forced into a corner by economic events, namely the bond market turbulence that is very closely linked to the initial rollback of the broad-stroke tariffs announced on April 2. 

Currently, the biggest threat that could run up inflation is with China, where tariffs have risen to over 100% between both countries. Given that the U.S.-China trading relationship is worth over half a trillion dollars, it’s imperative that both countries figure it out, but as of today, news broke that there could be an agreement ready to be signed. 

Mexico and Canada’s tariff situation can become troublesome if it’s renewed, but many of the tariffs have been rolled back, with only select industries being targeted, namely Canadian metals. 

With this being said, I’m not suggesting that tariffs are a complete nonissue, but it’s also not a huge issue. Yet, it’s become the foremost catchphrase that economists continue to regurgitate over and over again despite an evolving narrative. 

The fact of the matter is that since January, we’ve been told that inflation will rise and that tariffs will be the culprit. Instead, we’ve seen the opposite. Inflation continues to come in below forecasts, while tariff policy continues to be reversed, amended, or, in some cases, challenged by courts. But for some odd reason, I keep hearing that tariffs are going to create a catastrophic inflationary environment any day now.

So, in that case, I’d lean toward making the argument that Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have, in fact, run out of excuses to not cut interest rates.

Here’s my thought process on that:

  • The Fed was already beginning a cut cycle.
  • They stopped that cut cycle in anticipation of inflation driven by tariffs.
  • The tariff situation played out the way it did, and inflation actually fell.
  • Consumer spending, meanwhile, fell as the narrative around the economy soured.
  • Lower consumer spending equals less revenue for businesses, which equals layoffs or hiring freezes.
  • Unemployment rises.

If the end of this chain of events is an uptick in unemployment, the Fed will have no choice but to cut rates.

So, the question is: Does the Fed wait for unemployment to rise? Or does it proactively cut rates now or sometime soon to keep things running smoothly?

We’ll get a better idea next week when they meet at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.



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There’s a high-stakes battle unfolding in the world of real estate, and while much of it is happening behind closed doors, its impact may soon hit the wallets of real estate investors nationwide.

This week, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) convened in Washington, D.C., to discuss what might seem like an obscure policy—commingling of Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and non-MLS listings. But make no mistake: It’s a pivotal shift with major implications for how properties are marketed, discovered, and sold.

At the center of the debate is the future of the MLS and the industry’s evolving interpretation of who controls access to listing data, who gets visibility, and what it will cost investors to resell their properties in a transparent, open market.

Let’s break down why this matters, who the key players are, and what the ripple effects could be for those building wealth through real estate.

NAR’s Quiet Pivot on Commingling

For years, NAR’s no-commingling rule restricted brokers and portals like Zillow from displaying MLS-sourced listings alongside those from non-MLS sources—like for-sale-by-owner (FSBO) listings—on a single search page. That meant toggling between views, limiting side-by-side comparisons, and, ultimately, preserving the dominance of MLS-affiliated brokers.

But on Tuesday, June 3, NAR’s Multiple Listing Issues and Policies Committee voted—without public discussion—to rescind the rule, and NAR’s Executive Committee approved that change the next day. This means brokers and portals could display FSBO and MLS listings together with no toggles or segmentation.

Why now? NAR is facing mounting scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) after recent antitrust lawsuits, including one filed by now-defunct brokerage REX, which challenged the no-commingling policy. Although NAR and Zillow won that case, the tide is turning, and the trade group appears to be preemptively shedding optional rules that are increasingly seen as anti-competitive.

Zillow’s Play: Scratch My Back, I’ll Scratch Yours?

The timing is no coincidence. Zillow, which relies heavily on MLS data to populate its portal, has long opposed exclusive listing practices and defended NAR’s Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP), which requires listings to hit the MLS within one business day of public marketing. This rule helps Zillow maintain its vast listing database.

Starting June 30, Zillow will begin banning listings that are publicly marketed but not submitted to the MLS, calling them noncompliant. This includes properties featured on a brokerage’s site or social media but withheld from the MLS.

The company’s new standards apply even if local MLSes allow more flexible policies, meaning Zillow is asserting national power over how agents and brokers list homes. In essence, if you’re not in the MLS, you’re not on Zillow.

So why would Zillow—defender of the CCP—be celebrating the end of the no-commingling rule? Because it opens the door for Zillow to host FSBO listings and MLS listings side by side without a separate search toggle, giving the portal even more control over the home search experience.

It’s hard not to view this as a strategic trade-off. NAR drops an old rule Zillow hated. Zillow doubles down on CCP, a rule NAR needs to survive in the post-lawsuit era. The mutual benefit is clear.

Compass, Privacy, and the FSBO Push

While Zillow and NAR team up to tighten control over listing access, Compass is pushing in the opposite direction.

Compass, which posted a 28.7% YoY jump in Q1 revenue and remains the largest brokerage in the U.S. by sales volume, is doubling down on private and “office exclusive” listings. Their pitch? Sellers should have more say in how and where their homes are marketed, especially in the age of data privacy and hyperlocal targeting.

Compass argues that listing portals like Zillow are restricting consumer choice by banning listings not fed through the MLS. They point to homeowners’ rights to privacy and control—and claim that steering is worse now than before NAR’s commission lawsuit settlements.

Why should investors care? Because Compass’ approach has the potential to further fragment the market, making it harder for investors to evaluate deals, reach buyers, and know if their property is being seen by all potential buyers when it’s time to sell.

As more brokerages assert listing control, and as MLSes become more fractured, it could mean fewer eyes on your investment property—unless you pay extra for premium placement or marketing tools.

Homes.com Enters the Fray

Zillow isn’t the only portal making waves. CoStar Group’s Homes.com has seized the opportunity to differentiate by launching “Boost”—a free marketing tool for listings banned by Zillow or Redfin.

Homes.com CEO Andy Florance calls Zillow’s listing standards “a pure power play,” and argues that banning listings because they’re not on the MLS punishes agents and homeowners for not complying with portal-driven economics.

With Boost, agents can pay $260 to have their listings featured at the top of search results, receive Matterport tours, and gain ad retargeting across major websites like ESPN and The New York Times.

This battle of the portals—Zillow vs. CoStar vs. Redfin—only adds more complexity to the real estate ecosystem. And for investors, it raises a new question: Will selling a property tomorrow require not just a good location and solid ROI, but also a listing strategy tailored to the politics of each portal?

Bottom Line for Investors

Behind the policy acronyms and platform feuds lies a simple truth: Marketing a property is no longer just about price and presentation. It’s about data access, listing control, and platform alignment.

The Clear Cooperation Policy is the backbone of today’s MLS structure—and NAR needs it to survive in the post-commission lawsuit world. But if brokers like Compass and portals like Homes.com continue to gain traction with off-MLS listings, the very definition of a “cooperative” real estate market may be up for grabs.

Commissions are one of the biggest costs in any property sale. The more fragmented the listing landscape becomes, the harder it is to ensure maximum exposure without relying on MLS-fed portals. And with listing compliance becoming more rigid, there are added risks of being blacklisted on major platforms—impacting time on market and resale value.

For investors, this isn’t just drama among tech companies and trade associations—it’s about dollars and exit strategies.

Final Thoughts

Whether the MLS transforms or splinters, one thing is certain: Real estate investors must stay informed, agile, and strategic. The era of “list it and forget it” is gone. Today, navigating the listing battlefield is as important as analyzing the deal itself.

James P. Schlimmer is SVP, Real Estate Growth Officer, at Equity Trust Company, a leading self-directed IRA custodian.

Equity Trust Company is a directed custodian and does not provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Any information communicated by Equity Trust is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. Whenever making an investment decision, please consult with your tax attorney or financial professional.

BiggerPockets/PassivePockets is not affiliated in any way with Equity Trust Company or any of Equity’s family of companies. Opinions or ideas expressed by BiggerPockets/PassivePockets are not necessarily those of Equity Trust Company, nor do they reflect their views or endorsement. The information provided by Equity Trust Company is for educational purposes only. Equity Trust Company, and their affiliates, representatives, and officers do not provide legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult your tax and legal advisors before making investment decisions. Equity Trust and Bigger Pockets/Passive Pockets may receive referral fees for any services performed as a result of being referred opportunities.



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Want to retire early? What about early retirement AND making millions of dollars tax-free? Only one real estate investing strategy gives you the ability to do both, but 99% of investors won’t try it. Why? We don’t know because today’s two guests, as well as Dave, are all using this investing strategy in 2025 to make a killing on their real estate deals. It’s not house hacking, it’s not medium-term rentals, and it’s not private lending—it’s live-in flipping.

Never heard of live-in flipping? There’s a good reason—nobody is doing it, even though it boasts the biggest benefits of almost any real estate strategy out there. This method enabled Mindy Jensen to accumulate millions of dollars in net worth by her early 50s, much of which was tax-free. The same strategy is being used by Ashley Kehr and Dave to make hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit simply by buying a house, fixing it up while living in it, and reselling it.

How does this get you to early retirement? Simple: you make hundreds of thousands tax-free, more than what your job might pay you over several years, dramatically boosting your bank account and allowing your investments to multiply way faster. Anyone can do it—whether you’re single, have a partner, or kids—and the benefits are unbeatable. Wanna know how to start? Mindy, the expert on live-in flips, is sharing her secrets in today’s episode.

Dave:
This overlooked real estate strategy can put you on the path to early retirement with millions of dollars in the bank. Both of today’s guests and I are all doing it right now. Spoiler, it’s not traditional house hacking. In this episode, we’ll break down how to add huge value to your portfolio, all tax free. Hey everyone. I’m Dave Meyer, head of real estate investing at BiggerPockets. I’ve been buying rental properties for 15 years and now I’m teaching you how to secure your financial future too. Today we’re talking about a strategy called the Live in Flip. It’s not exactly house hacking, it’s not exactly house flipping, but it combines the best elements of each, provides huge tax-free returns and can be less disruptive to your day-to-day life than you might think. I’m personally going to start working on a live and flip in the next couple of weeks, and I was talking about it with my colleagues at BiggerPockets and two of them are doing the same, so they’re joining me on the show today to talk about ’em. Ashley Kehr, how are you?

Ashley:
Good. Thanks so much for having me on today.

Dave:
Absolutely. Is this your first live and flip?

Ashley:
Yes, it is.

Dave:
Okay. Mine too. But we also have Mindy Jensen on and Mindy, welcome to the show first and foremost.

Mindy:
Thank you Dave. It’s lovely to see you. Hi Ashley. Hi.

Dave:
Now show us up. Mindy, how many live and flips have you done?

Mindy:
I am in my 10th.

Dave:
Okay. Yes, so this is just going to be Ashley and I asking you for personal advice this entire time. Then. All right, let’s get into it. First and foremost, let’s define what a live-in flip is for anyone who doesn’t already know live-In flip is basically when you live in a house, you renovate it and then you sell it. So it basically combines your primary residence with a flip. And this might sound really obvious or maybe not even like an investment, but there are a couple reasons why this is such a good strategy, at least there are reasons I like it. The first is that you owner occupy it, which means you can get usually better financing terms. The second is because you’re living in it, you can go at a more casual pace than you would with a traditional flip. And third, you can still build huge amounts of equity like you would with a traditional flip, but if you live in that property for two years or more, when you go and sell it, all the gains that you get are tax free.

Dave:
When you compare that to a traditional flip that is actually taxed not at capital gains of 20%, it’s actually taxed at your ordinary income rate, which is usually higher than that. So the reason this is so great is it gives you a place to live. You can build massive amounts of equity, and when you go and sell the property, you are able to get all of those gains tax free. Those are at least the reasons why I like live-in flips and why I am about to take on my first. But Mindy, what are the reasons you like?

Mindy:
I first did this in 1998, selling in 2002, so I lived there for four years and I made, again, it was the time $25,000 on a condo that I bought for $50,000. I paid off all my debt, and at the time I was making $24,000 a year, so I was like, whoa, and I’m paying taxes on that 24,000. I got 25,000 for free.

Dave:
That just demonstrates the power of the live-in flip. Ashley, tell me a little bit, why is this appealing to you and why are you choosing to do your first one now?

Ashley:
I think there’s just a huge advantage as to how you can purchase the property. You can get very good loans for it being your primary residence. I have the flexibility now I guess, where it doesn’t really matter where I live, and I think the fact that this is a really attractive, easier way to invest in real estate where you can get that tax free gain. So instead of spending all this time working on building up money to buy this already done primary residence, I’m just going to suffer a little and live here while we

Mindy:
Have it. I mean, you need to live in a place anyway. During those two years, you might as well live in a place that is going to make you money because your primary residence isn’t technically an investment. It is a place to live, and my primary residence is an investment because I bought very ugly, very low, and I’ve spent a lot of time fixing it up. So when I sell it, I’m going to make a lot of money tax

Dave:
Free. Well, this is just one strategy. I rally against this all the time on the show. I hate when people say that your primary residence isn’t an investment, and there are very prominent real estate educators who say that. I just think it’s a choice. If you just go out and buy a really recently flipped house on Zillow and pay a lot of money for it, yeah, that’s probably not the best investment for you, but you can make your primary residence investment, whether it’s a house hack or a live-in flip. So all of us are choosing to do that. Ashley, where are you in this stage of, have you already closed or are you in the midst of it right now?

Ashley:
Yeah, so I actually bought it using a private money lender, so I didn’t buy it using a primary residence home so that way I could kind of do a mini bur with it. So it actually sat vacant for four years. When I closed on it, there was a bunch of stuff that needed to be done immediately, so we rushed and within three weeks we got it livable. There was no running water. We had replaced all the plumbing, the septic had a leak in it. We had to get that cleaned up everything. So we had got moved in and then we did a couple things just for appraised value and now we’re going through the refinance process. Then when we are done refinancing, then we’ll go and use that money from our dump payment and the other rehabs we already did and go ahead and do more to the property.

Dave:
Okay. Well, I do want to turn the conversation to sort of a step-by-step approach here, how we can approach this if you’re interested in doing this type of thing. But Mindy, I want your opinion on the measure. You’ve done this 10 times now, I’m sure for a lot of people listening to this, it sounds terrible. You’re living in a construction zone, you’re constantly managing these things. Is that the reality and if so, is it worth it or are there sort of ways that you can mitigate how challenging it is?

Mindy:
Yes, it’s worth it because I am cashing giant checks at the end of it, and that makes it all worthwhile. You just don’t even remember the pain that you went through and you’re like, wow. The last house I sold, I got a $276,000 gain.

Dave:
Wow, tax free.

Mindy:
Tax free.

Dave:
Yeah. So it’s basically earning 400 grand.

Mindy:
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. It is a huge amount of money that I then roll into the next property or put into the stock market depending on how much it is. The next property I bought for $365,000.

Dave:
Wow.

Mindy:
That’s the one that I’m sitting in now. This house is a sort of a cookie cutter house in a neighborhood where there’s a lot of other houses just like this, and one sold in the runup in 2022 before rates changed. One of this model house sold for $850,000.

Ashley:
Wow. And you bought it for three something?

Mindy:
Yes. Wow.

Dave:
Midi, you are very good at

Mindy:
This. My house was super gross. This house was a smoker’s house. I bought it from the original owner. They smoked in it for 40 years, and when I came to see it first, it had been sitting on the market for three weeks. They didn’t open a window ever, and I walked through the house. I was here for probably an hour. I had to go home, take off my clothes and put them in the washing machine and scrub the smoke, smell out.

Dave:
Okay. Well, I mean both of you also have a family, and so you’re doing this with your family. Has that been a challenge for you, Ashley?

Ashley:
No. A big priority was to finish the kids’ rooms first. So before we even had anything with the downstairs even touched and while the plumber was working on the plumbing, that’s what we focused on is giving them these really cool bedrooms. So their bedrooms are done, so if there’s construction anywhere else, they at least have their own space that’s done and whatever they wanted in there.

Dave:
Who’s doing the work? Are you DIYing it like Mindy style or do you have a contractor?

Ashley:
So we did use a plumber to do all of the plumbing work. That was the really big thing. We didn’t really have to do any electrical. And then Daryl refinished all the hardwood floors, and then we used just a lot of subcontractors. We had a flooring company come in and put some carpet in the kids’ bedrooms. We did the vinyl plank. We redid a lot in the basement already, so we put down the vinyl plank, things like that. Any drywall repairs we’ve done ourself.

Dave:
Oh, cool. I haven’t closed on mine. I’m closing on mine tomorrow, so I have no idea what I’m

Ashley:
Doing myself. Oh, congratulations.

Dave:
Thank you. Yeah, I’m excited and I am intending to hire a GC to basically do the entire thing. But Mindy, you’re sort of on the other end of the spectrum too, right? You basically do everything yourself.

Mindy:
Yes, with my husband, and it’s going to take us two years, or we have to be there for two years anyway, so we don’t have this mad dash to get it all done. On the other hand, you are living in a construction zone until you’re done, so it can be a little bit wearing on the family, especially the kids if they are not excited about the project in the first place, having a space for them to go to call their own to close the door and have it be just I’m blocking out all of the dust and dirt and whatever is really important for getting them on track. But yeah, it is a super fun, super experience. Dave, you’re going to have so much

Dave:
Fun.

Mindy:
Dave,

Ashley:
Are you going to move into it and then rehab along the way, or are you going to redo it and then move in?

Dave:
I think we’ll probably live in it for a couple of months to just really decide what we want to do and then intending to hire a contractor estimates or three to four months. It’s a split level, so I’m hoping I can phase it where I redo the basement first. We can move downstairs and then do the upstairs. We’ll probably still have to move out for a week or two, but hopefully not having to move out for more than that, but we’ll see how it goes. We do have to take a quick break, but when we come back, I want to talk step by step. If people are interested in this concept, how do you go from wherever your living situation is now to finding the right deal, figuring out your plan of attack and then maximizing your ROI? We’ll get to that right after this quick break.

Dave:
They say real estate is passive income, but if you’ve spent a Sunday night buried in spreadsheets, you know better. We hear it from investors all the time, spending hours every month sorting through receipts and bank transactions, trying to guess if you’re making any money or not, and when tax season hits, it’s like trying to solve a Rubik’s cube blindfolded. That’s where baseline comes in. BiggerPockets official banking platform. It tags every rent, payment and expense to the right property and schedule E category as you bank, so you get tax ready financial reports in real time, not at the end of the year. You can instantly see how each unit is performing, where you’re making money and losing money and make changes while it still counts. Head over to baseline.com/biggerpockets to start protecting your profits, and right now you can get a special $100 bonus when you sign up. Thanks again to our sponsor. Baseline. Baseline. Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m here with Ashley Care and Mindy Jensen talking about a strategy I’ve personally been sleeping on, I think a lot of people slip on, which is the live and flip, and now we’re going to turn our conversation to how to do this. If you actually want to, so Mindy, maybe you can help us if you’re interested in this, what kind of properties do you normally target or is that even the right place to start?

Mindy:
Well, it’s not quite the right place to start, but we’ll get into that in into a minute.

Dave:
Okay.

Mindy:
First, you need to know your market. You need to be able to hop on a property as soon as it pops up, and this is true for all investments. So what makes a good live-in flip, you need a city that has growth potential or is in the middle, not the top of the growth market. Once you’ve decided on a city, start really looking at the neighborhoods. What makes a good flip for me is an older home, 1970s build.

Dave:
I

Mindy:
Really love 1920s build. I don’t love, they’ve got that. I don’t even know how to pronounce this. Is it plaster and lath or plaster and lathe?

Dave:
Lathe, yeah, I don’t

Mindy:
Know. That’s wood slats with mesh wire and then heavy, heavy, heavy plaster on top of that, and that’s a pain to remove. I love a good drywall house. 1970s construction has modern construction techniques, but if you can find an original owner who maybe they did one remodel in the eighties and they’re like, we’re good. That’s a prime target for your house.

Dave:
Is that sort of what you targeted Ashley?

Ashley:
Actually, this was an accident. This property was my dad’s friend. It was his childhood home and his mom was really sick, and so they wanted to get rid of the house and she wasn’t living there anymore. And actually right before we signed the contract, she ended up passing away. So then we had to wait for her estate to be put together, the executor of our will to be named, and that took a whole nother year. So I actually had it under contract for a year before we actually closed on it, and when I got it under contract, the intention was to just flip the property, but then I was just outgrowing where we already lived, and so we decided to rent that property out and move into this one. So the market was great to flip the house, there was potential, I was getting it below market value. The rehab was very manageable for me, so the deal came to me before I was even looking for it.

Dave:
What is it? How old is it? I know in Colorado a lot of things are built 50, 60 seventies in the Northeast it could be pretty old.

Ashley:
This one is 1950, and it was also just one owner the whole time.

Dave:
Alright, so that’s good advice on targeting a property. And Mindy, once you find an identify a property, what’s the next step? Do you move in and then do a plan? Do you plan first or how have you done it in the past?

Mindy:
Well, once I find the property on the MLS, I go and see it, and I am not a fan or an advocate of buying sight unseen. I want to be in this property. You can’t smell a picture. I thought this house was just ugly, and then I walk in and that aroma of cigarette smoke for the last 40 years was really overwhelming, and that’s one of the reasons why the house sat on the market for so long. I knew that it was ugly and needed a whole new kitchen, three new bathrooms. It had white carpeting. I don’t even understand why they make white carpeting, but I digress. All of the beams, the exposed beams were this weird orange color. The varnish kind of aged over time, but I wanted to get into the property first and I absolutely recommend because they also don’t put every single picture, every single room on the internet. On the MLS, you can hide a lot simply by omitting the evidence in the MLS. So you need to be in that property.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s funny because yeah, if you have a nice turnkey property, they want to show off everything but the kind of properties you’re targeting, they’re showing as little as possible,

Mindy:
As little as possible. One thing they did not show on the MLS were those little green bars of mouse poison all over the house. Oh god.

Dave:
Wow. And this is what you like?

Mindy:
Yes. Hey, that’s great. I can clean that up. I can close up all the holes. I can get rid of the mice. It’s an easy fix. It’s just kind of gross. But I don’t touch meth houses, broken foundations or mold problems because I want to be able to move in the day that I close.

Dave:
Yeah, you don’t want to sit on those holding costs. So when you’re at that property though, how sophisticated or finished of a plan do you have about what you’re going to do in your head? Are you saying like, oh, I can drive up the value in the RV by doing X, y, z and you just kind of a rough idea? Or are you really thinking about here’s exactly what I’m going to do, putting together a budget, or when does that come?

Mindy:
So yeah, as I’m walking, I open the door, I walk through the house first, just what’s here. Oh, okay. There was a fire and they didn’t show that part of it. Great, I’m out. I’m not touching this firehouse. Or Hey, it’s just really ugly. I can handle that. And then I’ll go back in, okay, there’s a bathroom that’s $5,000. There’s a bathroom that’s $5,000. There’s a bathroom that’s $5,000. The $12,000 kitchen, I need all new flooring. Let’s call that 10,000 and I’ll figure it out later. The roof is in great shape or the furnace is older than me. What is this all going to cost? Okay, this needs about $75,000 worth of work. I’m getting it for 365. I know it’s worth a lot more than 365. This makes sense to put in an offer. I’m going to put in an aggressive offer because I already have a house. I don’t need to move. I want to move because I’m done with the other house.

Dave:
I want to give you a little more credit than you’re giving yourself, Mindy, you’re running the numbers, you’re doing a little bit of your own Mindy math there, but it’s just, well, you’re not just like, oh, I’m buying this without a thought to what the A RV is and what you’re going to put into it. But I also think that kind of speaks to how beneficial a live and flip is and that it’s a little bit more forgiving than I think a regular flip or even a rental property purchase because of these tax benefits, because of the timeframe that you have, it gives you a little bit more cushion. I know that if you’re flipping a house, you have to really be on budget but also be on time schedule, and so this kind of allows you to maybe be a little bit more, a little loosey goosey where you are. Ashley, did you do the same thing or were you putting together a more detailed budget?

Ashley:
I had a very detailed budget put together because originally I was just going to flip it.

Dave:
That’s right. Yeah,

Ashley:
I mean I kind of threw that out the window because obviously if I was doing a flip, my starting point wouldn’t have been the kids’ bedrooms, it would’ve been doing the bathroom with the kitchens. So our timeline at least has definitely changed and I think just a huge benefit doing the live and flip is you have to pay for somewhere to live anyways. So my holding costs are completely different because I am paying the mortgage. I don’t have to worry about if the property sits too long, me coming up with more money to cover the payment on that. So I think that’s a huge benefit. But yeah, I had done a pretty detailed budget. It definitely has changed and will be changing because we are living here, so I want to make it a little bit more of what I would like than just doing a six month flip and you done with it,

Dave:
Are you definitely going to sell after two years, Ashley, or if it’s working for you, could you live there longer?

Ashley:
Every single person in my family says that I will, they will not want to leave and that I will be changing my mind to. That just makes me more determined to find them an even better house because that’s literally what they said about the last property, and we did love it so much. We kept it as a rental so that we didn’t have to sell it and I found them a better house. So that is exactly what I’m going to do. Yes, I do see myself selling it.

Dave:
One of the things that’s sort of challenging me about planning the scope of the renovation is like what do you do for resale value and what do you do for your own quality of life? It’s not that hard. A lot of things I want to do for quality of life will also improve the resale value, but have you run into any of those challenges, Ashley?

Ashley:
Yes, because Daryl said, I need to build out this workshop in the garage and get all this organization done in there and all these things. I’m like, no, because that’s the stuff you’re going to cabinets and things you’re going to take to the next house. That’s not a priority for resale value.

Mindy:
Current kitchen cabinets go in the garage.

Ashley:
Yeah, that’s actually a great idea. That’s how you

Mindy:
Do Every house I’ve ever had, except for this one, we just got rid of all the cabinets, no space in the garage. It’s like the tightest two car garage ever had. But otherwise, yeah, the cabinets go in the garage and that’s when you can tell that the house has been remodeled at least once. Oh, look, there’s the original cabinets now there’s storage in the garage.

Dave:
Mindy, how do you navigate that when you’re sort of designing and coming up with the scope of work? How much do you prioritize resale value versus your family’s quality of life while you’re living there?

Mindy:
I am always looking to sell the house, so I am always first and foremost what is going to appeal to the most people?

Dave:
Yeah,

Mindy:
I do IKEA kitchen cabinets and I choose the doors that I like, not the doors that I love and want, but the doors that I like that I think will also appeal to a lot of people.

Dave:
To your point, part of it is also like if you’re waiting a couple years, trends don’t change that much, but there’s sort of this desire to renovate in a more, at least for me, in a more timeless way than you might do if it was just a flip to be on trend for that year. If you sell it in two years or three years, we might not be in this era where brass finishes are really trendy anymore and people might be going back to the brushed Mindy’s just making faces about brass finishes. So maybe everyone agrees and we’re not going to have brass finishes in two years and we need sort of a more timeless look as well. I don’t know if that’s what you’re getting at, but that’s kind of what made me think of

Mindy:
Yeah, absolutely. I want the most people to walk into the house and say, Ooh, I like this. I love the color pink. I would love to have a pink backsplash. I would never put a pink backsplash in a house that I was live in flipping because I don’t want to replace it and that’s not going to appeal to the most people. So I have a really beautiful blue backsplash and I have amazing gray tile floors and they are boring, but nice and I think that’s really what you want is boring, but nice trends are appealing to some people, but a more timeless look is better and a neutral palette so that if they want to come in and they’re like, oh, I don’t like this wall color. I can change the wall color, but wow, look at that kitchen. Make it appealing to as many people as possible. Now on the flip side, Carl and I are getting ready to tear down a rental that we have and rebuild with everything that we want. I have a bigger kitchen than what was normal. I have an island in my kitchen that’s going to be five feet by eight feet and I cannot wait.

Dave:
Wait, so this is your next house, so you’re doing a live and flip When you sell the live and flip, you’re going to move into this new build.

Mindy:
Yes. This is our forever home. After 10, I’m getting a little old and a little tired to keep doing this live and flip because we’re doing all the work ourselves. It is a real strain mentally and physically, and I just don’t want to live in a construction zone

Dave:
Anymore. And talking about living in a construction zone, I want to talk about the ways I Mindy and listened to your podcast, so I know some of them, but I want to talk about some of the ways that you can make a live and flip manageable and easier on yourself and your family. We do have to take another quick break though. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m here with Mindy and Ashley talking about the live and flip. Obviously there’s so many upsides to the live and flip. The downside is just inconvenience. It seems to me. I can’t really think of many other downsides. It’s relatively low risk. There’s these tax-free gains there. It’s just a little very forgiving. So Mindy, tell me a little bit about how you mitigate the inconveniences for yourself.

Mindy:
Step number one is if you’re doing this with your family, make a comfortable place for them to be able to retreat to and also make a comfortable place for you to retreat to. So we have sometimes lived in one of the kids’ bedrooms while we are rehabbing the master bedroom, but we don’t rehab all the bedrooms at once and sleep in the living room, which also has no drywall, and it’s the middle of winter and freezing cold. We always have a space that we can retreat to, and that’s really, really important because every once in a while your spirit will break and if I can talk you out of a live and flip, then live and flipping is not for you.

Dave:
Your spirit breaking is Yeah, that’s maybe the ultimate inconvenience.

Mindy:
Remember that time that it rained in my house because we had a thousand year rainstorm and I had a four month old baby and there was one spot right in the middle of the bed that I could put her and she wouldn’t get rained on as we’re running around the house all night long carrying buckets of water into the bathtub to dump it out and then go put the bucket back because it was raining in the house. That was a spirit breaking moment.

Dave:
You’re not really selling this right now, Mindy. You’re really just

Ashley:
My kids would love that raid in the house, run it around, open slide across the kitchen floor. So

Mindy:
Dave, you’re in Seattle. Don’t let the roof off during the rainy season.

Dave:
Yeah, that’s a good point. So I like that tip of sort of creating a space that people can retreat to. Ashley, it sounds like you did your kids’ rooms first, which makes a lot of sense. Was there anything else you did ahead of time to try and minimize any inconvenience?

Ashley:
Not really. The kids were really excited about it. We actually had another property we were going to move into and we let them pick. It was a rental I’ve had for a long time and they chose this one and I’m so glad they made that decision because I like it a lot better now than the other one. Just looking back or why would you ever decide? So just including them into the decision I think was a big part of it too, and how cool they got to pick between houses, how many kids have that option when we made the pros and cons with them. I

Mindy:
Love that you’re including them.

Ashley:
Yeah,

Dave:
That’s good. That’s good for them. So okay, I want to turn the conversation one more time just to some practical things here for the audience. Let’s talk a little bit about financing because there’s a lot of different ways that you can go about this. For example, my property is not in such bad shape, so I’m able to get a conventional mortgage on it. Ashley, it sounds like you bought it with private money, now you’re doing a bunch of different things and you’re sort of taking a refinance approach and I assume you’re going to use the money you pull out of the refi to fund the rest of the rehab is that’s kind of how you’re doing it.

Ashley:
So the two advantages to this is that one, we got to have an appraisal done. So with the work we did, we kind of saw where we stood as far as current comps or whatever. We also got to see what kind of hurt our appraisal compared to the other properties. You look at an appraisal report and it gives you the comparables and it says $20,000 was taken off in value because you don’t have this that other properties had. One thing that really stood out to us is on the first floor is the master suite, but there’s no other bathroom. You either have to go upstairs or down in the basement.

Dave:
That’s a pain.

Ashley:
And they actually to the appraiser took value off of ours because of that and it was under the category of layout or something that was different than all the other comparables. So it was just really cool to see that by having an appraisal done when we’re just kind of partial way through the process. But the other thing we did was we did an arm loan, so it’s a five year, so we actually got a lower interest rate than if we would’ve done a 30 year rate fixed loan because, and since we plan on leaving in two years, we don’t even need to go to that five year mark hopefully because it will sell. So that was another big advantage is we could take that opportunity and get a better interest rate too over the next two years.

Dave:
I did the same thing. I did an arm also. I think people don’t like adjustable rate mortgages and they do come with risk, but for projects like this, I think they make a ton of sense, especially now I don’t know about you, but the spread for me was a full percentage point I think was like between a 30 or fixed and an arm. And that matters a lot when you’re holding onto it for two years, it will really make a difference.

Ashley:
And you’re still getting the 30 year amortization, so your payment is still spread out over 30 years.

Dave:
Yeah, it works pretty well. What about you Mindy? How have you financed and do you have any recommendations for financing? Because I think, I guess the question is right, the acquisition is one thing, but then you also have to pay for the renovations. I’m doing conventional and then I’m just going to come out of pocket for the renovations. But how have you done in the past, Mindy?

Mindy:
I have always gotten either a conventional or an FHA loan and I tell my lender that I’m open to both so that they will run the numbers on both. Sometimes an FHA is better, sometimes a conventional is better. FHA is not just for first time home buyers. So even though I’ve done this a bunch, the last house I had was an FHA loan. I like 30 year loans, not 15 year loans because I don’t know how long it’s going to take me and I have been looking for my forever home for a long time. I’ve moved around a lot. I’ve never in my life lived in a house for longer than six years.

Dave:
But now you’re building it, now you’re going to

Mindy:
Have to, now I’m building it. I’m going to build my forever home for that one. We’re actually financing it through a line of credit loan against our after tax stock portfolio, which also comes with risks, but we are aware of the risks and we are willing to take them. I think the rate there is like 4% right now. That’s what we’re paying on the loan.

Dave:
That’s really good.

Mindy:
Yeah, it’s really good. But there’s also, it’s adjustable every month and the amount that I can borrow fluctuates with my stock prices.

Ashley:
Another option too along those lines is if you have an investment property already, like a rental is getting a commercial line of credit on the rental property too. And that’s what we actually are going to use to do our rehab too. So I don’t think what we’re pulling back out right now is going to cover the whole cost of the rehab. So we’ll just use our line of credit, either pay it off over time the next two years or we’ll just pay the interest on it and then pay it from our when we sell the property.

Mindy:
But Dave, you asked about how am I financing the rehab? Here’s a fun little trick. Open up a Home Depot or Lowe’s or both credit card that is the store credit card will frequently offer you no interest for 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. So long as you are paying the monthly minimum on time every month, the no interest comes with an asterisk. If you don’t pay off the entire amount before the promotional period ends, they go back to the very beginning

Dave:
Cruise

Mindy:
And charge you interest on the entire amount for the whole time. So if you can’t pay it off before the end of the promotional period, make other plans.

Dave:
But

Mindy:
Like you, you’re coming out of pocket. Well why come out of pocket now when you can come out of pocket over the course of 24 months?

Dave:
Alright, well that’s very good advice. So last question here. I think this has been a super, super helpful conversation. I think one question I’m imagining our audience might have is this is a great strategy. So is house hacking two different owner occupied strategies? Ashley, how would you suggest to the audience thinking through if either of these are right and between these two options, who is living flipping good for and who is house hacking good for?

Ashley:
I would say personality plays a big part in this. When someone comes knocking at my door, I am hiding, pretending I am not home. So house hacking would not be for me because of those reasons, but I think personality plays a lot into it. And then your tolerance of rehab and then also your spouse or your significant other as to their preference is living in a rehab and DIYing it yourself, going to cause a lot more arguments. And then also just your kids too as to how will they acclimate into living there.

Dave:
I agree the personality thing makes a big difference. How would you think this through Mindy?

Mindy:
I would say the same thing and add on live in flipping is great for people who have a project manager mentality and can go with the flow. There is definitely going to be things that do not happen on the timeline that you have in your head. Even after 10 I still have a timeline and then life is like, oh, really? No. The biggest shift to our timeline for this house was COVID.

Ashley:
We

Mindy:
Were going to be all done in May of 2020 and then March of 2020 happened and we had to homeschool our kids instead. And it has just been really dragged out. So being able to tolerate a rehab for a long period of time because you, I don’t know if you’ve ever had this experience Dave or Ashley, but you call up a contractor and they say, I’ll be there on Tuesday, but they didn’t tell you that it was Tuesday of 37 weeks from now or they just never answer the phone again. So there’s a lot of things that happen to your timeline that are outside of your control and if you can’t handle that, then live and flipping is not for you.

Dave:
Those are good points. The only thing I’ll add to this too is I just think where you are in your investing journey will matter too. If you’re prioritizing cashflow or appreciation. Obviously a live and flip isn’t going to give you any cashflow. And so if you’re in a point where you’re trying to build cashflow, house hacking might be the option. The other thing is I think generally speaking, house hacking is probably going to be a lower capital investment. Not all live and flips. You can get conventional loans for some of them you can, but if you do a turnkey house hack, if you’re putting five, 10% down, you’re not doing a major rehab, you could probably get into that a little easier than if you need to fund a down payment and find a way to fund a renovation. Even if you borrow, that’s still money. You need to still figure that out. So just another thing to think about. But I’m super excited about this. I’ll keep you guys posted because again, I am starting next week and would love to hear Ashley and Mindy how the rest of your live and flips go over the course of your hold period here. Thank you both so much for being here.

Ashley:
Yeah,

Mindy:
Thank you for

Ashley:
Having us

Dave:
And thank you Mindy. Appreciate it.

Mindy:
Yeah, thanks for having me Dave. And any questions hit me up. I love to talk about this stuff.

Dave:
Yes, don’t ask me any questions I don’t know yet. Ask Mindy. She knows everything. Well, thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets podcast. We’ll see you next time.

 

 

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One messy, imperfect, low-cash-flow rental property could change your life forever, but maybe not in the way you’d think. No one retires off ONE property, but that first property can provide the education, mindset, and momentum to fuel your second, third, and fourth deals. Today, we’re breaking down our first real estate deals—the ups, the downs, and mistakes we made that YOU should avoid!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! In this episode, we’re winding back the clock and sharing how we got started in real estate. While Ashley invested in her own backyard and found a partner to help fund the deal, Tony invested out of state and managed renovations remotely. You’ll hear how we stabilized the properties, rented them out, and, eventually, sold them for a big payday!

Whether you’re new to the world of real estate investing or struggling to take action, this episode has something for you. We’ll share why finding your first deal is more important than finding the “perfect” deal, how to use real estate partnerships to fast-track your investing journey, and what we’d do differently if we were starting over today!

Ashley:
On this episode of Real Estate Rookie, we are going to be breaking down our very first deals. Welcome to the Real Estate Rookie podcast. I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I am Tony j Robinson. And today you get to hear the origin story of Tony and Ashley. So we’re both going to break down how we got started and what our deals look like, what lessons we learned, and maybe what even we do differently. If we were starting over today, we’ll put that in there as well. So we’ll talk about how we found our deals, how we funded those deals, how we went through our renovation periods, how we stabilize those assets, and then hopefully all of our Ricks that are listening get some good lessons learned.

Ashley:
We definitely have some lessons learned to share. That’s for sure. So Tony, I think because your first deal is kind of famous on the podcast, for all of our OG listeners, hearing me stumble over Freeport, Shreveport, Shreveport for so long when you had your rental property there. Let’s start with that property, your first deal.

Tony:
Funny enough, I was actually just back in Shreveport for all of our Ricks who were listening. I was just back in Shreveport this past weekend because my cousin got married there. She just so happened to marry a guy who grew up in that city, a small world, but I drove by that first rental and I was like, man, this is the place that started it all. And it was nice to kind of get back there. But in terms of how I found it, I live in California. I decided to invest in Shreveport, Louisiana because my mom and my stepdad had briefly lived there. After they retired, my stepdad had some family out there, so they were, I think two years they were out there. And while I was here visiting them, I was like, man, real estate is really cheap here. And I said, let me look around and see what I can find.
And I spent some time getting to know the neighborhood while I was out there visiting them in my rental car, driving around aimlessly, just trying to get a better sense of the neighborhoods and where the kind of lines were between the A class and the B class, the B class, and the C class. And what were some of the neighborhoods that maybe didn’t want to invest into. I met with property managers, I met with a couple of agents of the couple of different banks and really just got a good lay of the land and I was able to within this big city, land on a couple of zip codes that I felt made the most sense for me to invest into.

Ashley:
Tony, before you even had the deal and you’re meeting with these key people to build your network, how do you start those conversations with people when you don’t even have a deal yet?

Tony:
Yeah, it’s a great question. And I was just honest and said like, Hey, I am a W2 employee. I’m looking to buy my first real estate investment here in your town. What should I know? Here’s what I’m thinking about buying. What are your thoughts? What are your thoughts on this neighborhood? What kind of product should I be looking for? I think honestly, one of the best conversations that I had in terms of getting a better understanding of the city was talking to the property manager. He and I met for coffee at some local coffee shop, and they have such a strong working knowledge of their city of rents, of what kind of finishes you should do, how to screen your tenants. So I think one of my most productive conversations before we actually purchased was with that property manager.

Ashley:
So you start looking for your first deal. When does that happen and give us kind of the breakdown of the numbers. Did you pay the actual asking price or have to negotiate a little bit?

Tony:
Yeah, it took me a while to find that first deal. Actually, it was about 18 months from that initial conversations to me actually finding the deal. And in between there I started looking, didn’t really find anything that I was looking for. I ended up getting married or getting engaged, buying our primary residence. So I had some life things that went on, but it was about 18 months from me really deciding to actually find in that first deal. And it was on the MLS, it was a property that was listed. I was working with an agent, she sent it to me. I analyzed it that same day and I can’t remember exactly what it was listed for. I want to say it was listed from maybe one 50 or 1 30, 1 35, somewhere in there. But we ended up going under contract at a hundred thousand dollars. So we got a decent discount on that first deal, but it was nothing super creative. It was nothing super ninja. It would say, here’s a good deal that’s on the MLS. Lemme put an offer in. Let’s talk about you rash. How did you find your first deal?

Ashley:
So my first deal was actually the second deal that I looked at. So it was pretty sudden, but I got into my head. I was working as a property manager. I got into my head, I wanted to do this. I was working for one investor, managing his portfolio, and his son was actually my first partner and he was going to be the money on the deal. And so the first property that I wanted to look at, I didn’t have a real estate agent. I had never bought a house before. And so I just called the listing agent who had the property for sale, found it on Zillow or one of those websites, and I called and she said, let’s set an appointment. And she said, just so you know, this property has flooded, it has foundation issues, and I just really didn’t know anything. And I was just like, oh, okay.
And I didn’t want to be like, oh no, I’m scared I going to cancel. This is how awful of a person I was. I got cold feet and I never actually called the agent to say that I was canceling and I was not showing up because I was so scared that I was just scared that I made this appointment and now I was already backing out. I wasn’t serious about buying a property. And so I hope I’ve made that agent money in another way someday. And I feel guilty about that of just ghosting the agent and not showing up. But I was like, okay, yeah, you know what? That scared me. That’s not the property for me. So then I was talking to my mom and my mom had a friend that was a real estate agent. So the next property I found was a duplex, and it was right in the town where I was managing other properties for this investor.
And so I went and looked at it with the agent and it was an old property, but there was people living in it. So I’m like, okay, at least people can inhabit it. And the second unit was vacant and needed some updating which cosmetic, which I’ve been kind of project managing any of the remodels that were happening at the apartment complex I was managing. So I was like, okay, I can take this on. And so we put in an offer, I think they had it listed at like 85,000. We went back and forth a little bit. We got it for I think like 74 9 or something like that. And we ended up getting it under contract pretty quickly. This was back in 2014. So there wasn’t a ton of competition with other investors in the area. I’m pretty sure we were the only offer, the only one interested in the property. So that ended up being our first deal. And we funded it with cash too. My partner’s money,

Tony:
I think you even showed growth, Ashley, between the first property that you walked and the second property that you walked, because the first one just hearing that it had some sort of issue and it spooked you from even going to walk the property. But the second one you said it was old, it was outdated, it needed some work, but you had already kind of talked yourself through it to say, well, hey, I’ve done things that are similar to this before. It just wasn’t my own property. So this is probably something that I can take. And I think for a lot of rookies that are listening, there’s a lesson in there because we all want to make sure that we’re growing. And I talk about this a lot on the podcast, and if you’ve listened for quite some time, you’ve heard me explain this theory, but we can’t grow.
We’re only doing things that we’re comfortable with, but we also don’t want to stretch ourselves so far that we’re getting into that zone of doing things that are dangerously outside of what we’re currently capable of doing. And for you, maybe that first deal, that’s what it was, it puts you into your danger zone where you’re like, oh man, flood foundation issues, that’s a little bit more than I’m willing to take on. But with that second property you walked, you’re like, I’ve done something very similar to this before. It’s just one step outside of maybe what I’ve done in the past. And I think as a Ricky, those are the kind of steps you want to be able to take that one small baby step outside of your comfort zone.

Ashley:
I think that was said perfectly, and I was scared of that foundation issue and that the structural issues from the flooding and things like that. And it’s funny because recently I just had a property where I had tenants live in it for the last four years, and we decided it was time to sell that rental and move on to something else. And when we went into that rental after four years, it was literally like you went upstairs and you felt like you were drunk because the floors were so slanted, the property had just moved so much and the foundation was sinking in the front towards the front of the house. So all the floors, the tenant had left a can of cat food. And I remember taking the can of cat food, setting it on its side and just watching it roll down the bedroom as that’s supposed say, happened.
And so it forced me, because I already own this property, it forced me to have to figure it out. And honestly, it wasn’t that scary. It wasn’t that bad. I called a couple companies, told them the issue, we got someone to come out and give us a quote. And I would have to say the scariest part was that there was a lot of if then buts to this as to we have to, we are going to jack it up. We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, how it will shift, how it’ll change. You might need to put a beam in here, all these things. And so it ended up costing $7,000 well worth it. We just listed the property and got it under contract to sell and thinking about it. Now, that used to be such a scary thing for me, but I also didn’t take the time to research to learn to talk to companies that actually do that type of work. And that’s why it was scary to me because that was not knowledgeable about that.

Tony:
I think a good exercise for virtually everyone that’s listening to this podcast is to practice that exercise of having conversations with problem properties. And what I mean by that is I would encourage everyone who’s listening to call on a property in a market you have no interest in actually investing in, right? So for me, I dunno, say you send me a property in Buffalo, New York, right? Yeah, right. So you send me a property in Buffalo, New York, but say it’s got foundation issue, say it’s got this, say it’s got that, use that property. It’s just like your practice mode. Use it as your batting cages to get your reps in and just talk to the agent and say, Hey, tell me about this property. I always got foundation issues. Hey Mr. And Mrs. Agent, do you know any companies that specialize in foundation repair and then call those foundation repair companies?
And I think when it’s a property we know we have no interest of actually investing in, it takes away a lot of that pressure of, well, I’ve got to make sure that I ask all the right questions. I’ve got to make sure that I get everything right. Because all you’re trying to do is practice. And yes, you’re going to waste a little bit of time for the agent, for the companies you call, but in the grand scheme of things, the benefit to you is so great that I think it’s worth it. So practice more as a real estate investor on deals that maybe aren’t super, super critical for you to get it. All right. The first time

Ashley:
We have to take a quick ad break, but when we come back, we’re actually going to talk about the funding of the deals. And I mentioned cash, but it actually, it wasn’t any of my cash to actually purchase a property. So we’ll be right back. Okay. Welcome back from our short break. Tony and I are breaking down our first deals. Tony, how did you actually fund that first purchase?

Tony:
This was probably the thing that got me hooked on real estate investing was the way that I was able to finance this deal. I still think it’s one of the best deals that I’ve done honestly, but I found local bank that gave me a loan product where if I found a property where the purchase price and the rehab cost totaled no more than I believe it was 72.5% of the after repair values, a very specific number, they would fund 100% of both the purchase and the renovation. I’m going to say that again because it was a really cool thing that they gave me. But they basically said, Tony, if you find a property that’s worth a hundred thousand dollars, but you only have to spend $72,000 to buy it and rehab it, we’ll fund the whole thing. And that’s what I did. So my buy box was very tight as I was searching for properties because I had the guidelines of that bank as my frame of reference.
So every deal that I looked at, I would try and say, okay, what is it going to cost me to purchase? What is it going to cost me to rehab and the purchase price? I think for most Ricky’s, that’s easy to understand. I think the renovation cost is a lot harder for Ricky to try and estimate. So let me tell you guys what I did to figure that cost out. First, I got a couple of references for general contractors from my bank and for my agent, and there was one contractor that showed up on both of their lists. So he was kind of the guy that I was focusing most of my time and attention on. And I asked him two different things. The first thing I did was I asked him for recent renovations he had done like, Hey, can I just see some photos of some recent work you’ve done and give me the ballpark on what it costs that person for that specific job.
So I had one frame of reference there, and then I said, Hey, here’s a property that I’m thinking about buying. I don’t need a full bid. I just need you to give me a ballpark on what it would take to get this subject property to look like that rehab you just finished, just a ballpark number. And with that, I was able to give some price per square foot that I could kind of back into that allowed me as I was looking at deals, I could quickly kind of come up with a ballpark rehab estimate without having to ask that gc, Hey, can you go walk it? Hey, can you go walk it? Hey, can you go walk it? Because in your initial offering phase, that’s all you really need. You need a ballpark number. You’re going to be able to refine your rehab from an estimate to a true bid during your due diligence phase.
And it’s okay if you estimated $50,000 in rehab and it turns into 75 because then you just take that information back to the seller and say, Hey, Mr. And Mrs. Seller, I’m going to be candid with you. I had budgeted X for the rehab. It’s now actually Y, and the only way that we’re going to make this deal work is if you gave me some sort of credit or we reduced the purchase price, whatever it is. But that was my process, Ashley. I found a bank that funded the entire thing and literally it was $0 out of pocket for me. I think I had to pay for the appraisal and maybe a little bit of closing costs, but it was very, very minimal out of pocket cost for me on this deal.

Ashley:
So that was very different than how I funded my first deal. I had the mindset because I didn’t know any better that you could not go to a bank that you had to pay cash for an investment property because that’s what the investor did that I worked for. I didn’t even know there was any kind of lending available out there. So I had to figure out how to fund that first deal because I didn’t have any cash at the time. And so the partner that I took on had some money saved and we decided to go in 50 50, but he would also hold the note on the property. So he would own 50% of the property, have the equity, get 50% of the cashflow, but also we basically had him as a mortgage holder. So we didn’t file an official mortgage note with the county or anything, but we did type up a loan agreement where the capital he put in was amortized over 15 years and five and a half percent, and he would receive monthly payments to pay back his principal, including earning that five and a half percent interest on his money at that time was a pretty good rate for also getting 50% of the deal on the property too.
So I think the biggest thing for me was that I had this person that was putting the trust into me because they didn’t know anything about real estate investing. I’d been a property manager, so I felt very confident about the management of the property and a little bit of the rehab just from being the project manager and the remodels for the apartment units too. So we put together that agreement. When it came time to purchase the property, he brought the check to close on the property and then he was getting his monthly payments. Unfortunately, there was some repairs that needed to be done that we did not account for. And that’s where I actually drained my, I think I had $5,000 in savings at that time, and I drained those savings to buy. We had planned, we had estimated to put in a split unit for the AC and the heat upstairs that it had an old wall furnace that we knew were going to take out.
What we didn’t know was that the panel, actually, the electric panel actually needed to be upgraded to actually add in the split unit. So we had to spend some of my savings for that. And then there was a couple other unexpected things that came up during that time that we ended up using my savings for. And then we just did the same thing with my partner where I got paid back a little bit at a time. I think it was a hundred dollars a month. And then when we sold another property, it was paid back the rest as we continued to grow our portfolio. But I think that was a great partnership for me in the beginning because this person, I was handling everything. I was finding the deal, whatever, and they were taking a risk with me doing my first deal. I was happy to give up that much stuff.
I was happy to putting in the sweat equity. I was happy that they were making five and a half percent on their capital knowing they were getting their money back and they were getting equity and some cashflow on this property. So right now, if someone brought me that deal, I would say, no, I’m giving away too much while still having to do all the work for the property. But it was such a great way for me to get started, and it would’ve been so much longer for me to actually get started. I think it was probably four years later after that first investment, maybe three that I actually found BiggerPockets. And in that year I tripled my portfolio. I learned about seller financing, who knew that you could actually do that, and I was able to seller finance a portfolio of properties from another lender. So I think I would’ve waited a lot longer to take action if I hadn’t have given this suite of a deal to that other investor.

Tony:
But I think you bring up a really good point, Ashley, that sometimes there’s this theory in startup culture like tech startups that when you are initially starting up your company, you should intentionally do things that do not scale. And there’s stories of CEOs like personally calling and hopping on calls with their first five or 10 or 30 or 100 customers to get that real qualitative feedback. And the idea is, well, you’re not going to be able to do that when you have a million customers. And the point is, that is the point that you can’t do that when you get to a million. So you should focus on those things when you’re at the beginning. And I think that same theory, that same principle can be applied to real estate investing where in the beginning, you should be doing things that don’t necessarily scale. You should be doing things at property, one that maybe don’t make sense when you’re at property 15 or 30 or 1000, whatever it may be.
And for you, Ashley, you said like, Hey, today where you’re at in your journey, that doesn’t make sense. But when you’re just starting out, that made a ton of sense. And I think that’s why it’s so important that rookies hear the stories of other rookie investors. Because if you only listen to Grant Cardone, if you only listen to Warren Buffett, you’re hearing the idea and the circumstance of people who have already gone through that journey. And sometimes it can skew the way that you should be making decisions about where you are at right now in your business. So sometimes you got to bend a little bit on what’s important to you in that early phase. I guess let’s talk about the rehab portion a little bit, right? We talked about how we found the deals, we talked about how we funded those deals, but the next part is the rehab. And I think it was a different experience for both of us. Ashley, because you were investing in your backyard. I was investing several thousand miles away, slightly different experience. So for you on the rehab side, Ashley, you had already, like you said, done managing the toward the portfolio you were managing. But was it any different? Were there any unique challenges managing that rehab when you were doing it for your own property?

Ashley:
The property management on the side of project management for my own rental was very different than at working for the other investor with the apartment complex. Each unit was pretty standard as to what it was like. It also was built in, the apartment complex was built in 2002, so at this point it was only 12 years old, and the property I was buying was built in 1920. So very different as to what would happen if we opened a wall. And that was really one of my things as my first investment. I did not want to open a wall or take down a wall or rip out a bathtub and see what’s happening with the plumbing underneath the bathtub. So the property really needed cosmetic stuff as far as vinyl plank flooring, which we were starting to do in a lot of the apartments. So that was something easy.
I knew what the cost was, who to hire, kitchen cabinets. It was a very, very small kitchen. Lowe’s stock cabinets, I could pull my pricing as to what the cabinets would cost. Lowe’s designed it out for me as to what would fit where and what cabinets I would need. Also the countertop, it was just the form Mica countertops from Lowe’s how much I would need for that. One huge advantage of having a partner at its time was he had a roommate and he decreased the rent for his roommate if he did the repairs for us in the property. So his roommate actually did all the repairs for him for us and nights and weekends, and I didn’t have to pay anything. He just said, oh, I’m just not going to charge him rent this month to live in my house. And so he did all the work for us.
So that was another benefit of my partner. And I think all the time as you’re listening to this stuff, you think like, oh, well, I don’t have an investor mentor. I don’t have somebody with cash. I don’t have somebody that has a roommate to do work. There has to be some opportunities, some advantages that you have that Tony or I didn’t have. Tony had the advantage of his mom randomly living in this market for two years and him happening upon it and having somebody that lived there. So all around there is different opportunities, advantages. You may not realize what they are right now, but they will come about is even as you continue your journey, especially the more people that know exactly what you’re trying to do, you’ll start to realize, wow, this is an opportunity here. This is an advantage for me here.

Tony:
Ash, you make such an incredibly good point, and I’m so glad you brought that up and I could not agree with you more, but if you’re hearing Ash and you’re still like, Ashley, you just don’t get it. I literally don’t have anyone. I literally don’t have any resources. I strongly and firmly believe that the harder you work, the more opportunity you get. And if you put in the work of educating yourself, if you put in the work of networking with other investors, if you put in the work of just trying to do more deals, typically that’s where more opportunity comes. Had I not been listening to a bunch of podcasts and talking to different investors, I maybe would’ve never even connected the dots on Shreveport being the right place for me to invest, had actually not had the courage to walk away from her job in accounting and go work for an investor doing property management. She never would’ve saw the light at the end of the tunnel that she could do this herself. So the more activity, the more action you take, the better you get at spotting opportunities.

Ashley:
And too, when I left my accounting job, I was ready to go be barefoot and pregnant on a farm. I did not leave my job to go into property management. It’s just like the offer happened. And I was like, well, I can work from home and part-time, sure, it will give me a little extra money. And so I think as life goes on, other opportunities will open. And I’m not saying go out and quit your job right now and wait for a real estate job to happen. But one big thing is what’s your skillset? Your job right now, how can that transfer to real estate? What will you be really good at? Do you do sales? That is a huge skillset to have as a real estate investor, to be able to go direct to seller, to negotiate the deals, things like that. So yeah, I think look at what skill sets you do currently have and use those for opportunities.
But also Tony, for him going out of state, that scared me. That scared me more. And so we were the complete opposite. He didn’t have the opportunity to invest in the hometown where he’s lived his whole life and he went to a different market. And that to me, that I saw as a disadvantage to Tony, that he had to go to a whole new market. He figured it out, and then he figured out his advantage. I know someone that lived here for two years, this is where I’m going to start. Instead of spending all this time analyzing markets all across the US not knowing which one to start, looking at those markets where you have those little subtle advantages of maybe you lived there for a little while, maybe someone else that lived there, maybe a great real estate agent in that market. Or if you literally know nobody and you’re going to end up like my one son who just wants to be an expert at Fortnite and you play video games and you don’t know anyone, then go into the BiggerPockets forums, network with people in the forums, set up keyword alerts for markets.
You’re looking in, create an Instagram account that is specific to real estate where you’re only following other real estate investors. See where they’re investing, what they’re doing. And then from there, pick a couple markets. Look at the people who have similar goals or reasons to invest as you do, and then maybe see if some of their markets align with what you’re trying to do. Just because I invest in Buffalo, New York doesn’t mean that it is a great investment, that it is the best return I could get with my money. It’s literally because it was the most convenient and it was the easiest for me at the time. That is literally the reason why invest here, because I felt like I had an advantage because I knew the market.

Tony:
I think the rehab experience for me, like you mentioned, was slightly different because I was doing it remotely and I was doing it while working a pretty demanding W2 job as well. And the way that I found success in managing it remotely was, I guess there were a few layers, actually. The first layer was the bank that I was using. They released all the funds to the contractor in draws. Before that draw was released, the bank would send someone an inspector of some sort to actually go validate that the work that the contractor said was done, was actually completed. So there was this layer of validation that I was getting at this bank that really wanted to protect the a hundred plus thousand dollars they just gave me. They were sending someone out there to validate the work was being done. So that was the first thing that gave me a lot of confidence to do this remotely.
And that’s not uncommon. I’ve talked to other investors who have worked with a lot of these local regional banks that have a really strong local presence where when they do lend on rehab and in construction, it isn’t uncommon for them to send someone out before that draw is made to validate the work is done. So there’s one thing. The second thing was I met with the contractor virtually every Friday I think it was. And we would FaceTime, he’d walk into the property, give me an update on here’s this, here’s that, here’s this, here’s that. And that just visually gave me what I needed as I was going through. And then as we neared the completion of the rehab, I’d already selected my property manager. They knew what was going on. They were doing some final walkthroughs with me to say, Hey, you should probably have them take a look at this to make sure that it’s ready to be rented. Hey, I noticed this. This might be an issue when we get a tenant in there to make sure they fix this. So having that kind of three legged beast of me doing my visual inspections, the bank sitting out their inspector, my PB, and that final set of eyes really gave me the confidence to do it. And honestly, that was probably the easiest rehab I’ve ever done. And it’s like, because I couldn’t go and drive over there, it just wasn’t even on my brain as much, and it was the easiest, easiest I’d ever done.

Ashley:
Well, we have to take our last ad break, but when we get back, we’re going to find out what happened to those first deals and what’s going on with those properties today. We’ll be right back. Okay, we’re back from our short break, Tony. I guess first, before we get into what happened with those deals, let’s talk the final numbers. What were you cashflowing on that property after you did your rehab, you rented it out. What does the cashflow look like on your very first property?

Tony:
Yeah, if I recall correctly, after everything, CapEx, property management reserves, I was cashflowing about 150 bucks per month. Definitely not life-changing money, but it was a very good proof of concept on my first deal. And I think even more impressive because again, my out-of-pocket cost was virtually zero, so I got an almost infinite return on that first deal. So it was about 150 bucks per month on that first deal. What about you, Ashley? What did your first deal look like?

Ashley:
Mine was honestly about the same After everything. It was so measly, and when I actually had ran all the numbers, I forgot to add snowplowing. So that ended up taking off, I dunno, 50 bucks off of my original estimate of what my cashflow would be to do snowplowing for the property. But yeah, it was definitely not life changing either. But one thing that I have learned is that first deal isn’t meant to make you rich. It was to start your journey and to propel you. And it did. It launched us. We got our second deal within three or four months of that when it was right down the street and we’re like, okay, this is perfect. It’s on the same street. We need to figure out a way to make this happen. And we did. And from there, it just started to slowly snowball. We found other ways to fund the deals, and that first deal was life-changing and not in cashflow, but the fact that it got us started. So yeah, same thing, a measly $150.

Tony:
But you make an incredibly important point, Ashley, that the purpose of the first deal is not to make you rich. Ashley and I have interviewed, we’re on what episode, 570 some odd now of this podcast. And out of those almost 600 episodes, exactly zero people have retired off of their first deal. No one’s done it. We have not met a single rookie investor who with just one deal they’ve been made. So the purpose of the first deal is exactly what Ashley said, laying that foundation, building that momentum. And you said, Ashley, it was within a couple of months after your first deal, you got your second. I actually didn’t find my second deal while I was under contract on my first. So it’s like it really does start to snowball once you’re in it.

Ashley:
Somebody could retire off their first deal if they paid for a million dollar property that’s putting out 10 grand a month in cashflow. Okay, so I think that’s a really good to understand when you’re comparing apples to apples is we had $0 into these deals. They were full burrs. So when we were making $150 and we had no money into the deal. So I think that’s when you’re seeing all these flashy things on Instagram and social media of like, wow, they’re getting a thousand dollars cashflow. Well, maybe they put down 25% on the deal, so their mortgage payment is lower, they have more equity into the deal, all these different things. So really take that into consideration when you’re trying to compare apples to apples as to what’s actually going into the deal. And also time that you’re putting into a deal too. We could have said that maybe have a better return on it because our rehab only cost a thousand dollars, but that was because we did all the work ourselves, but it took us six months of our time. So take everything with a grain of salt. And if you really, really want to understand a deal, really take a deep dive into the numbers too. It’s like cash flow. Is that including what they’re saving for CapEx? Is that including their time to do the bookkeeping or is the other person paying a full-time bookkeeper? There’s all these different things. So it’s really hard to compare deals. Tony, let’s go over these deals now. So what has happened with your deal?

Tony:
My deal today is cash flowing exactly $0. We sold that deal, I want to say three years after we purchased it. As we made our transition from short-term to long-term, we kind of reassessed and said, okay, does it still make sense for us to hold these long-term assets? And I believe this was after I had lost my jobs, who were just looking for some additional ways to free up some capital to live off of, to keep investing into real estate. And that property, gosh, again, we bought it for 100. I want to say the rehab was about 50 grand, but it appraised for two 30. I think we ended up selling it for closer to 200, but we still made a decent amount of money when we sold that property. And that helped us during that transitionary phase of Tony’s unemployed. So we sold that deal. And actually again, I drove by it just a few days ago, and it looks like right now the current owner’s renovating it again. So yeah, it’s about to change hands again, it looks like.

Ashley:
So my deal, I actually had to look it up on Zillow right now as to what it actually sold for because I couldn’t remember. So we did buy it for 74,900, and we ended up selling it in 2019. So we held it from 2014 and we sold it for 105,000. So made a little bit, we didn’t lose money on the deal. We pretty much had no other major expenses or any other rehabs happen, but we did have a tenant that we had to evict that we did put a judgment against them. I think it was for like $3,000 that hasn’t been paid and will expire in a couple of years, but really no major headaches with that property. Yeah, so we had some equity in it. I mean, by that time we had paid down, it was on a 15 year note. So over five years we had paid down that note to my partner.
So we had paid down a third of the property by that time. So we did have a bunch of equity. And yeah, it was a nice payday even at that time in 2019 when we sold that property, I didn’t really realize the value of holding properties, but that’s something I’ve really realized the last couple of years as to wow, maybe cashflow isn’t the greatest play. Like waiting until you get that perfect property that has great cashflow. What’s the property that’s going to cashflow little so you’re not putting any of your own money in, but also is going to have that appreciation play the mortgage paid on to build up that equity so that, okay, I need some money. I’m going to sell this property, and it’s doubled in value, or it has tons of equity in it that I have options. And I think that is one of the things I am most grateful for about buying properties 10 years ago, is that the amount of equity I have available in them, if I were to need those funds, and that could be a refinance, that could be a commercial line of credit, that could be just to sell them and take the money that could be to do 10 31 exchange into something bigger.
So if you have any hesitation, I would say down the road, investing in property, investing in real estate has been better than I could have imagined to give me the options I have available today. I started investing with the sole purpose of I’m never selling a property. I’m being a long-term buy and hold investor, and I’m holding these properties forever. I’ve bought and sold a ton. I have changed my portfolio so many times, and there’ll be properties that don’t serve you properties where what they’ll sell for just will outbeat what you’ll get in cashflow for the next five, 10 years. So I think really looking at other things than besides cashflow can really help you see the tremendous impact that real estate investing can have on your life.

Tony:
I think you hit the nail on the head, Ashley, that cashflow is just one piece of what it means to find success in real estate. And I think even when you look at real estate investors who are doing this at a very large scale, a lot of times their big paydays aren’t when the cashflow check comes in every month, it’s when there’s a capital event, when they sell a property that they’ve had for 10 years when they refinance a property, and now they’re getting some of that equity tax-free because loans aren’t income, it’s debt, and you’re getting these big refinances on these multimillion dollar properties. So the perspective real estate investing, I think shouldn’t be so singularly focused on cashflow because there are so many other levers that are important that help you build wealth over the long run. So I hope that for the Ricky that heard our stories today, although Ashley’s was in 2014, my first deal was in 2018, we get that the market has shifted, that things have changed, but the underlying idea behind those first deals is that the purpose of the deal is to lay that foundation and B, focus on the resources you have at your disposal to help you get that first deal.

Ashley:
Thank you guys so much for joining us today on Real Estate Rookie. I’m Ashley. And he’s Tony. Let us know in the comments below what you’re doing to get your first deal, what market you’re investing in. We love seeing and following real estate rookies journeys. Thank you guys so much for joining us. We’ll see you guys next time.

 

 

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Let’s be honest: 2025 hasn’t exactly felt like the golden age of real estate investing. Mortgage rates are high, property prices are stubborn, and every headline seems to question whether now is a good time to buy. 

If you’re a new investor, it’s easy to feel stuck. You might be wondering, “Did I miss my window? Should I wait until things settle down?” These are valid concerns—but they’re not the whole story.

We’re going to break down what’s really going on in today’s market, why real estate is still one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available, and how you can take smart first steps—even in a market that feels anything but beginner-friendly.

What’s Happening in the 2025 Market?

Right now, the real estate market is in transition. After the red-hot years of 2020 to 2022, where bidding wars and record-low interest rates dominated, we’re seeing a shift—and for new investors, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Here’s what we’re seeing in mid-2025:

  • Mortgage rates remain elevated, hovering around the 6.5% to 7.5% range, depending on the loan type and borrower profile.
  • Inventory levels are climbing slowly, but many sellers are still anchored to “unrealistic” price expectations from 2021 to 2022.
  • Buyer activity has cooled. According to Redfin, nearly one in five homes saw a price drop in April 2025, and home sales were down 3.5% year over year.
  • Properties are sitting longer: Days on market have increased by nearly 25% in many metros, giving buyers more room to negotiate.

But here’s the upside: The power dynamic is shifting. We’re moving out of a seller-dominated market into one where buyers—especially prepared, patient ones—have more leverage. Rookie investors who know how to spot opportunity (and run the numbers) are better positioned than they’ve been in years.

The Rookie’s Fear: “Should I Wait Until the Market Gets Better?”

It’s the question on every new investor’s mind: “Should I wait for interest rates to drop? For prices to come down? For the market to feel more stable?”

It’s a natural reaction—especially when headlines are filled with uncertainty. But here’s the truth: Trying to time the market is one of the fastest ways to miss out.

Historically, real estate has always had its ups and downs. But long term? Prices go up. According to the Federal Reserve, the median sales price of homes in the U.S. has increased more than 500% since 1990—even with the 2008 crash and other corrections factored in.

Waiting for the “perfect” time often means sitting on the sidelines while others are building equity, collecting rent, and learning through experience. Plus, while you’re waiting:

  • Home prices may not fall—but interest rates might rise again.
  • Inflation continues to erode your purchasing power.
  • Rent prices are going up in most markets, meaning you’re paying more without gaining ownership or leverage.

Yes, caution is smart. But waiting for ideal conditions often leads to missed opportunities. The better strategy? Learn how to invest in any market.

What Makes Real Estate Still Worth It in 2025?

Despite the challenges, real estate remains one of the most reliable, flexible ways to build wealth—especially if you’re thinking long term. Here’s why it still holds up in 2025:

1. Cash flow is still possible—if you buy right

Rising rates mean higher mortgage payments, but that doesn’t mean cash flow is off the table. Investors who focus on strong rental markets, negotiate well, or use creative strategies like mid-term rentals or rent-by-the-room are still seeing monthly profit—even with today’s financing.

2. Long-term appreciation

Real estate isn’t a get-rich-quick game. It’s about steady wealth-building over time. Even with short-term fluctuations, property values tend to rise over the long run. Buying now means you’re starting the clock on appreciation and equity gains.

3. Tax advantages

From depreciation to deductions for repairs, mortgage interest, and even travel related to your rental, real estate offers built-in tax benefits that most asset classes can’t compete with. These benefits can significantly reduce your taxable income.

4. Leverage

Where else can you buy a $300,000 asset with $30,000 down? Leverage allows you to control more property than your cash alone would allow—magnifying both returns and risks. Used responsibly, it’s a major advantage for building wealth.

5. Inflation hedge

When inflation rises, so do rents. Real estate tends to move with inflation, making it a natural hedge against rising costs. That’s especially important when everything from groceries to gas is more expensive.

Smart Ways Rookies Can Still Win Today

You don’t need a perfect market—you need a smart approach. Here are some practical strategies new investors are using in 2025 to get in the game and build momentum:

1. Buy right, not fast

The deals that work in 2025 are ones where you run your numbers carefully, negotiate well, and leave room for cash flow or future equity. That means skipping the bidding wars and being patient for a property that fits your strategy.

2. Explore creative entry points

Not everyone starts with a 25% down payment and perfect credit. Look into:

These strategies reduce your upfront capital needs and help you learn while you earn.

3. Use technology to stay organized and competitive

Rookies often miss out not because of lack of effort—but because they are overwhelmed and don’t have the right systems in place. This includes property management software, CRMs, lead management, deal analysis, and more. 

4. Learn from the right people

Surround yourself with mentors, listen to investing podcasts, attend local meetups, and ask questions in online communities. Every experienced investor was once where you are—and most are happy to help those who are serious about getting started.

Real Talk: What Might Not Work Right Now

While there’s still plenty of opportunity, not every strategy is built for today’s market. Rookies who go in without a plan—or with outdated assumptions—are most likely to struggle. Here’s what to be cautious about:

1. Banking on appreciation alone

Buying a property that doesn’t cash flow now because you’re hoping it’ll be worth more later is risky in this market. Appreciation isn’t guaranteed, and short-term value dips are always a possibility. Your deal needs to make sense today, not just in theory.

2. Overleveraging without reserves

With higher interest rates and tighter margins, it’s more important than ever to keep reserves. If you’re stretching every dollar just to close a deal, you might not have enough cushion for a vacancy, repair, or market hiccup.

3. Ignoring local laws and market nuance

Not every area is investor-friendly. Some cities have added stricter regulations on short-term or mid-term rentals. Others have rising property taxes or declining demand. A cookie-cutter approach won’t work—you need to understand your local market before you buy.

4. Chasing “hot tips” on social media

It’s tempting to follow hype or copy someone else’s strategy, but your market, financial situation, and goals are unique. Success comes from adapting proven principles to your context—not chasing what worked for someone else on TikTok.

Final Thoughts: Real Estate Is a Long Game

If you’re feeling uncertain about jumping into real estate in 2025, you’re not alone. Even experienced investors are adjusting their strategies right now. But here’s the difference: They’re still buying. They understand that real estate isn’t about timing the market perfectly. It’s about time in the market.

The reality is that the best deals often happen in uncertain times. When others are hesitating, that’s your chance to move in with clarity and a solid plan.

Start with one deal. Learn as you go. Use the tools and education available to you. If you can get comfortable taking action while others are waiting, you’ll be ahead of the game in five years—while others are still “thinking about investing.”

Because at the end of the day: “Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait.”



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If you’re serious about growing your business, the answer isn’t to work more hours—it’s to work smarter. And that starts with putting systems in place that can take care of the repetitive stuff so you can focus on what actually moves the needle.

Here’s the truth: If you’re not using artificial intelligence (AI) in your business, you’re already behind.

If you’re relying on manual follow-ups, remembering every task, or trying to analyze all your KPIs on your own, you’re going to miss opportunities. Sellers won’t wait. Leads will slip through the cracks. And your competition—who is using automation and AI—will scoop them up while you’re still sorting through call logs or trying to catch up on your CRM.

AI isn’t about replacing you—it’s about amplifying your efforts. It’s how you stay consistent, responsive, and sharp when your time is already maxed out.

How AI Can Help

That’s why I’ve been paying attention to REsimpli’s newest update: a full lineup of eight AI agents designed to handle everything from missed calls to lead follow-up to marketing insights. These aren’t just random features—they’re fully integrated into the REsimpli platform, built to save you time, close more deals, and give you better visibility into what’s working (and not).

One of my favorite tools is CallAnswer AI. It picks up incoming seller calls 24/7, qualifies the lead based on your criteria, and even books appointments—whether you’re in a meeting, on another call, or just off the clock. Combine that with LeadScore AI, which automatically ranks your leads based on motivation and behavior, and suddenly you’re not just working leads—you’re prioritizing the ones most likely to convert.

Then there’s VoiceFollow AI, which takes over outbound calls as part of your follow-up campaigns. It handles the heavy lifting so no one slips through the cracks. 

And if speed is your edge, SpeedToLead AI helps you be the first to respond to new leads—usually within 15 seconds of submission. It’s one of the easiest ways to increase your chances of getting in front of motivated sellers before someone else does.

For the growing number of sellers who prefer to text, Conversational AI steps in to handle inbound texts automatically. It uses your conversation history to make replies sound natural and human, which is a huge win when you’re juggling a full pipeline. 

On the back end, REsimpli also added CallGrade AI to evaluate the quality of your sales calls, and MeetGrade AI to help improve performance on in-person appointments. Both tools provide instant coaching insights without hours of call review or team meetings.

And finally, KPI Insights AI is the tool I didn’t realize I needed. It doesn’t just show you the numbers—it tells you what they mean. Whether it’s identifying weak points in your follow-up process or showing which marketing campaigns are underperforming, this tool turns your CRM into something that actually thinks with you.

At the end of the day, these AI agents are about more than automation—they’re about running a more efficient, scalable business. Whether you’re flying solo or managing a team, REsimpli is helping real estate investors stop wasting time on repetitive tasks and start focusing on closing more deals. 

And the best part? It’s all in one place. No juggling third-party tools or trying to duct-tape different systems together. Just one platform that keeps everything moving behind the scenes—so you can focus on building relationships, making offers, and getting contracts signed.

This is what scaling looks like in 2025: faster, smarter, and a lot less stressful.

Use This Quick-Start Checklist to Integrate AI Into Your Daily Real Estate Operations

Want a quick-start guide to these tools? I put together a free checklist that breaks down what each REsimpli AI Agent does and how to start using it in your investing business. If you haven’t explored REsimpli yet, you can click here to try it now and see how other investors are utilizing these AI Agents.

Whether you’re just getting started or managing a full acquisitions team, this guide helps you plug the right tools into the right part of your workflow:

1. CallAnswer AI

  • Automatically answers all incoming seller calls
  • Qualifies leads based on your preset criteria
  • Schedules appointments while you’re offline
  • Best for: Solo investors or busy acquisition teams who can’t risk missed calls.

2. VoiceFollow AI

  • Automates outbound follow-up calls
  • Syncs with your drip campaigns or pipeline triggers
  • Best for: Keeping warm leads engaged without hiring a full-time caller.

3. SpeedToLead AI

  • Calls new leads within seconds of submission
  • Increases connection rate and response time
  • Best for: PPC leads, web forms, and Facebook lead campaigns.

4. Conversational AI

  • Responds to inbound seller texts automatically
  • Uses your CRM history to personalize replies
  • Best for: Sellers who prefer texting over phone calls.

5. CallGrade AI

  • Scores and analyzes seller calls
  • Gives feedback on tone, objections, and lead quality
  • Best for: Training reps or improving your own sales calls without hours of playback.

6. MeetGrade AI

  • Analyzes in-person appointment notes
  • Provides coaching insights for team improvement
  • Best for: Scaling teams and improving close rates on property walkthroughs.

7. LeadScore AI

  • Assigns motivation scores to each lead
  • Helps you prioritize high-converting prospects
  • Best for: Investors with large lead lists who need to focus on what’s hot.

8. KPI Insights AI

  • Translates data into clear, actionable insights
  • Identifies bottlenecks and underperforming campaigns
  • Best for: Any investor serious about scaling without guessing.

Let me know in the comments which AI agent you need in your business today! 



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Last month, Zillow updated its 2025 forecast to show home prices declining by 1.4% this year. 

Nationwide, the average home price has risen 1.4% over the last 12 months. But growth has slowed considerably over that period, and home prices have already started falling. Over the last three months, Zillow shows the nationwide average home value dip by 0.1% to $367,711. 

Of course, there’s no such thing as a “national” housing market. There are simply thousands of local markets, each moving based on local supply and demand. And more of those local markets have started falling in recent months. 

Cities With Annual Price Declines

Of the nearly 900 cities that Zillow tracks across the US, 141 saw home prices decline over the last year.

Many of them were pandemic darlings like Austin, Texas, which shot up at shockingly fast appreciation rates. 

“In Texas and the Southern region, homes that would’ve sparked bidding wars last year are now seeing nothing but lowball offers, and in many cases, price reductions,” Franklin Ivy, owner of Sound Homebuyers, tells BiggerPockets. “Sellers are having to sweeten the deal or be more realistic on price to get traction.”

In fact, correcting real estate markets that overshot their fundamentals is precisely why the Co-Investing Club I help organize at SparkRental tries to avoid chasing “the next hot market.” We typically look for stable, cash-flowing properties and markets—when we invest in residential real estate at all. 

Here are the 20 worst-performing cities by annual appreciation rate:

Metro Area Median Home Price 12-Month Change 3-Month Change
Greenville, MS $57,750 -19.50% -4.14%
Big Spring, TX $147,852 -14.10% -1.35%
Vernon, TX $99,583 -10.71% -3.64%
Punta Gorda, FL $323,060 -9.69% -2.74%
Bennettsville, SC $84,948 -8.90% -4.05%
Camden, AR $99,701 -7.86% -4.63%
Cape Coral, FL $364,765 -7.81% -2.57%
North Port, FL $427,571 -7.42% -2.19%
Pecos, TX $166,471 -7.06% 0.12%
Sweetwater, TX $115,106 -6.88% -2.80%
Naples, FL $593,023 -6.50% -1.87%
Silver City, NM $192,012 -5.78% -3.04%
Magnolia, AR $128,005 -5.50% -4.30%
Opelousas, LA $127,558 -5.16% -0.84%
Taos, NM $453,117 -5.14% -0.08%
Bainbridge, GA $152,995 -4.90% -3.40%
Plainview, TX $116,757 -4.89% -2.96%
Eureka, CA $446,023 -4.52% -1.59%
Austin, TX $457,835 -4.49% -1.73%
Panama City, FL $349,490 -4.36% -0.38%

Cities with Three-Month Price Declines

As you’d expect in a cooling real estate market, more cities are showing home price declines over the last three months than over the last year. Fully 339 cities across the country saw home prices decline over the last three months. 



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If you’re tired of riding the stock market roller coaster or constantly hearing about real estate opportunities that feel way out of reach, this post is for you.

What if I told you there’s a way to earn 10% to 12% passive returns—backed by real estate—without buying a single property?

No tenants. No midnight maintenance calls. No giant down payment. Just steady, predictable monthly income.

There’s a powerful strategy more investors are turning to, and for a growing number of individual investors, it’s becoming the go-to strategy for building real wealth without the headaches of traditional real estate.

I’m going to break down exactly how trust deeds work, why it might be the smartest way to diversify your portfolio, and which company makes it incredibly easy to get started.

The Problem With Traditional Real Estate Investing

The truth is, being a landlord just isn’t right for everyone. Owning rental property sounds like a dreamuntil you’re knee-deep in it.

You picture passive income rolling in, but what you get instead is a full-time job you didn’t sign up for. You know what I’m talking about:

  • 2 a.m. calls because a toilet won’t stop running
  • Tenants ghosting you halfway through a lease
  • Expensive vacancies when someone moves out at the worst possible time
  • A $7,000 AC replacement in the middle of a heat wave.

Even if you hire a property manager, guess what? You’re still managing the manager.

And let’s not forget the upfront cost. Buying a rental property isn’t cheap. You’re often shelling out tens of thousands, sometimes hundreds of thousands, of dollars just to get your foot in the door.

Plus, you’re tied to one property in one location. So, if that market dips or your tenant stops paying rent, your entire return is at risk.

Now, don’t get me wrong: Owning real estate is a powerful wealth-building tool. But the traditional role of landlord? It’s not for everyone.

And the truth is, most people want the benefits of real estatewithout the drama that comes with it. They want cash flow, equity,  and inflation protection, but without being on call 24/7.

Here’s the good news: There’s a way to tap into the power of real estate without owning property at all. It’s called trust deed investing.

What Are Trust Deed Investments?

Imagine you know a real estate developer. They find a property they want to build or flip, but they don’t want to go the traditional bank route. Maybe they need cash quickly. Maybe the banks are dragging their feet, and they need to move quickly to snap up this opportunity. 

 

So, what do they do? They turn to private investors like you.

And instead of buying the property yourself (and dealing with tenants, toilets, and turnover), you’re stepping in as the lender. You loan them the money, and in exchange, they pay you a fixed rate of return every single month. That’s a trust deed investment.

More formally, a trust deed (also called a “deed of trust”) is a legal document used in real estate transactions that secures a loan. It involves three parties: the borrower (the developer), the lender (you), and a trustee (a neutral third party who holds the title until the loan is paid off). If the borrower doesn’t pay, the trustee can foreclose on the property and recover your investment.

What makes this super appealing for everyday investors? Unlike stocks that rise and fall based on market mood swings, trust deed notes are backed by actual real estate. We’re talking about land, buildings, and tangible assets, not just promises and projections.

And here’s where it gets even better: You’re not the one fixing broken water heaters or chasing down rent. There’s no property management involved. You’re not buying a home. You’re buying the note. Think of it like becoming the bank without needing millions in capital.

So, while your neighbor is dealing with a 2 a.m. call from their short-term rental guest about a busted lock, you’re earning steady interest income while you sleep. No tenants, repairs, or drama: Just predictable, fixed returns from real estate-secured notes.

That’s why owning physical rental property isn’t the only way to win in real estate—and why this strategy is a game changer for investors who want the upside of real estate without all the headaches.

Why Ignite Funding Is the Go-To Platform for Trust Deed Investing

So, now that you know what trust deed investments are and why they’re such a smart way to earn passive income, let’s talk about how you actually do it.

Enter: Ignite Funding. This is the company that takes all the complexity out of trust deed investing and makes it ridiculously simple for everyday investors.

Unlike other platforms that just connect you with random borrowers, Ignite Funding is a full-service operation. That means they don’t just hand you a loan and say, “Good luck.” They actually originate, service, and collect on every loan in-house. 

Let me break down what that means:

  • Originate: They vet and underwrite each real estate deal and borrower before ever funding a deal.
  • Service: They manage all the loan logistics, from documentation to payment processing.
  • Collect: If a borrower misses a payment or defaults, Ignite Funding steps in to protect your capital, even going as far as foreclosing on the property and selling it, if needed.

So, while you’re kicking back and earning interest checks each month, they’re doing the heavy lifting behind the scenes.

Now, here’s the key difference: This isn’t a REIT. You’re not buying stock in a fund that’s subject to market mood swings. With Ignite, you’re choosing specific trust deed investments, each backed by tangible real estate.

That means your money isn’t bouncing around like it would if it were invested in the S&P 500. It’s tied to real properties with real value.

And best of all? You get monthly interest payouts. Real, actual cash flow you can count on. (Not some paper gain you hope doesn’t vanish overnight.)

So, if you’re the kind of investor who wants transparency, control, and predictable income without becoming a landlord, Ignite Funding was literally built for you.

Five Reasons Investors Are Turning to Ignite Funding

Here’s the part that really matters—why investors, from beginners to seasoned pros, are choosing Ignite Funding to grow their money.

In a world full of risky crypto plays and volatile stock tickers, people are craving consistency. And that’s exactly what Ignite delivers.

1. 10% to 12% fixed returns (paid monthly)

You read that right: With Ignite, you can earn a fixed annualized return between 10% and 12%, and those returns are paid out monthly. That means you’re not waiting around for dividends or hoping your stock goes up. You’re getting consistent, reliable cash flow every single month—straight to your account.

And because these loans are backed by real estate, they don’t swing wildly with market headlines. It’s calm, stable, and predictable—exactly how passive income should feel.

2. Accessible for non-accredited investors

Here’s the thing: Most platforms that offer these types of investments only cater to the wealthy. You’ve got to be an accredited investor with a six-figure income or million-dollar net worth just to get in the door.

Not with Ignite. They welcome individual investors of all kinds—no accreditation required. If you’ve got some savings and a desire to diversify, you can get started.

3. Low minimum investment ($5,000 for BiggerPockets subscribers) 

Most trust deed opportunities at Ignite start with a $10,000 minimum, but if you’re part of the BiggerPockets community, you can start with just $5,000. That’s low enough for new investors to test the waters, or for experienced ones to diversify across multiple deals.

4. True diversification without owning property 

Real estate diversification used to mean buying up homes across different ZIP codes. But scaling that way can get a little complicated.

With Ignite, you can spread your capital across multiple loans, backed by different property types and developers in multiple states. 

And the best part? You’re not managing any of them. You get the benefit of real estate exposure, without the landlord headaches.

5. Full-service platform with hands-on support 

Ignite doesn’t just drop you into a dashboard and wish you luck. They assign you a licensed Business Development Executive who helps you understand the process, walk through investments, and make informed decisions.

After that, their licensed Client Services Team keeps you in the loop, helps with paperwork, and is available anytime you need support.

You’re not doing this alone. You’ve got a real team backing you.

Between the returns, the accessibility, the support, and the simplicity it’s no wonder investors are making the switch.

Risks and Risk Mitigation

Now, every investment comes with risk. And trust deed investing is no exception. But the key difference here? With Ignite Funding, you’re not investing blindly. You’re investing in asset-backed loans with serious risk-mitigation practices in place.

So, what are the risks? The biggest one is borrower default. In plain English: The real estate borrower you loaned money to might not pay you back on time, or at all.

But here’s where Ignite steps up.

1. Rigorous due diligence

Before any deal hits the platform, Ignite Funding performs extensive underwriting. They review the borrower’s background, experience, and financials, and they ensure there’s a clear exit strategy. If a deal doesn’t meet their criteria, it doesn’t get funded period.

2. Conservative loan-to-value (LTV) ratios

Ignite typically lends at 60% to 70% LTV. That means if the property is worth $1 million, they’re only loaning out $600,000 to $700,000. That leaves a healthy equity cushion.

Why does this matter? If the borrower defaults, Ignite can foreclose on the property and sell it. Because there’s a buffer between what’s owed and what the property is worth, there’s a much higher chance investors will recover their principal—and maybe even some missed interest.

3. First-position trust deeds

This is huge: When you invest through Ignite, you hold a first-position lien on the property. That means you get paid first if the property is sold in foreclosure. Not second, not third. First.

So, while other unsecured investments might leave you hanging, this one puts you in line ahead of the crowd.

4. Active loan servicing and recovery

If a borrower misses a payment, Ignite isn’t just sending reminder emails. They take action. They manage the collection process, initiate foreclosure if necessary, and work to recover your funds as quickly and efficiently as possible.

You’re not stuck trying to chase someone down or deal with legal headaches. Ignite does all of that for you.

Final Thoughts

No investment is 100% risk-free. But with strong underwriting, low LTVs, asset-backed loans, and a team that’s ready to act if things go sideways, Ignite gives you layers of protection that most investment platforms just don’t offer.

So, here’s the big picture: You want to grow your money and consistent income, and you want it without the stress of owning a property, chasing down rent checks, or fixing someone else’s clogged toilet. That’s exactly what trust deed investing offers.

And with Ignite Funding, it’s not just theory—it’s a system that’s already working for thousands of investors. You get double-digit returns, backed by real estate and paid out monthly. No stock market roller coaster. No landlord responsibilities. Just steady, predictable income from real assets.

It’s a great fit for anyone who wants the benefits of real estate without the burdens of traditional investing.

And the best part? You don’t need to be rich, accredited, or experienced. You just need to get started.

So, here’s your next step:

Want to earn double-digit passive income backed by real estate? Learn more at Ignite Funding.

Because your money should be working just as hard as you do. And with Ignite, it finally can.

Disclosure:

Trust deed investments offered through Ignite Funding involve risk, including potential loss of principal. All investments are secured by real property and offered to qualified investors. Ignite Funding is a licensed mortgage broker (NVMBL #311) | (AZ CMB-0932150).  Money invested through a mortgage broker is not guaranteed to earn any interest and is not insured. Prior to investing, investors must be provided applicable disclosure documents. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to invest.



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Redfin’s latest forecast suggests home prices will see a 1% decline by year-end, a significant shift after years of growth. On The Market host Dave Meyer is joined by Chen Zhao, Redfin’s Head of Economics Research, to discuss the key factors behind this projection, including a changing ratio of buyers to sellers in the market. Later in the show, Dave and Chen break down regional trends across the Sunbelt, Midwest and Northeast, talk about rent forecasts heading into 2026 and touch on the impact of current mortgage rates and trade policies on the real estate market.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
For the first time in years, Redfin is forecasting a decline in US home prices, but a 1% dip. Does that mean we’re finally heading into a buyer’s market or is this just a temporary blip? I’m Dave Meyer and today I’m joined by Chen Zhao, head of Economic Research at Redfin. To break down there just released May, 2025 housing market forecast. We’ll cover what’s driving the shift in home prices where inventory is rising, why demand is lagging, and what investors and home buyers should expect. As we head into the second half of the year, this is on the market. Let’s get into it. Chen, welcome back to On the Market. Thanks for being here.

Chen:
Great, thanks for having me Dave.

Dave:
Let’s start today with what I assume is the biggest headline is that Redfin has adjusted its forecast for the year and is now projecting that home prices will dip modestly by 1% by the end of the year. Can you tell us a little bit about what data and information went into that decision?

Chen:
So our forecast for the year has changed. We still expect that mortgage rates are going to stay pretty high, but the change is really that we are expecting demand to be softer for the rest of the year and that prices will be falling by 1% by the end of the year. Like you said, the reason why we’re making this call is because what we have observed is that the ratio of buyers to sellers in the market has changed slowly over time, but now has really reached this tipping point where nationally we think most of the country is definitely in a buyer’s market. There are still some pockets of sellers markets in the northeast and the Midwest, but most of the country is really favoring buyers right now because while supply has increased, demand has really started to pull back. So just to really put some numbers on this, what we’re observing is that nationally there’s about 34% more sellers than buyers active in the market right now. And importantly, this ratio is the highest that we’ve seen in our data and we think it’s the highest. Going back probably at least 13 years, you would probably have to go back to the aftermath of the financial crisis to see a situation that’s similar to this. That’s why we feel pretty confident that prices are going to start falling just a little bit.

Dave:
Yeah, that makes sense. I saw that article that you put out super helpful for everyone in the industry, so thank you for doing this research. The number of 500,000 is kind of hard to wrap your head around. So you said your data goes back to 2012, so is the more important thing the ratio, like you were saying that it’s basically 34% higher?

Chen:
Yes, that’s right. We do headline by saying there’s about a half a million more buyers and sellers active in the housing market nationally right now. But you’re right. What does that mean? How many buyers are there normally? How many sellers are there normally? Really it’s about that ratio that there’s about 34% more sellers than buyers, and that’s at the national level. We also do look more regionally because for the housing market it really is, it’s all local. So we look at the top 50 metros for example, and we see that most of them, about 31 of them are buyer’s markets. And in some the ratio is pretty extreme. So in places like Miami or West Palm Beach, we actually see three times as many sellers as buyers right. Now on the flip side, you also see markets like Newark, New Jersey where there’s actually 47% more buyers than sell it. So whether you’re looking nationally or locally, it’s really that ratio that

Dave:
Matters. If there’s 500,000 more and this ratio is pretty high, why are prices still up right now? Because nationally I think you still have prices up year over year, like two 3%, something like that. So why is that still going on if this ratio is so high?

Chen:
So there’s a lag basically that has to get worked through. So on median sale price for example, what we see in our data is that right now median sale price is up about 1.3% year over year and the latest data up through last weekend. And that hasn’t really fallen because at the beginning of the year in January, that was closer to about 5%. And what we also did in this analysis was that we looked at how the ratio of buyers to sellers relates to changes in median sale price. And what we see is that actually median sale price growth really seems to follow this ratio of buyers to sellers pretty well, but it follows it with a lag of about three to six months. So that’s why we’re making this call about prices by the end of this year because just based on what we’re observing about the ratio right now, we feel pretty confident that if you pull that through to the end of this year, that does mean about negative 1% sale price growth.

Dave:
That makes a lot of sense to me because I would imagine just thinking about it sort of mechanically how this all plays out is there are more and more sellers relative to buyers, but sellers haven’t all necessarily accepted that we’ve shifted into a buyer’s market. They’re pricing their properties as they would’ve six months ago or a year ago or whatever. And even if it’s not selling, they’re allowing it to sit on the market and usually there needs to be some level of pain or urgency for the seller to sort of accept a lower offer. And so that might just take some time and so you’re expecting this fall or something, we will start to see prices come down.

Chen:
I think one of the other things that we’re observing in the market right now is there’s this growing gap between what we call median list price and median sale price. So median list price is a price on new listings and that is still up for almost 5% year over year right now in our latest data. But median sale price is steadily falling. So that gap is growing and what’s happening is you’re seeing more price drops that are happening and you’re also seeing that the sale to list ratio is falling. On top of that, you’re also seeing non-price concessions increasing in our data as well. So basically sellers are coming in with slightly outdated expectations and then they’re having to come to terms with the reality of the market right. Now.

Dave:
One more question about the national market then I do want to dig in a little bit to some of the regional trends that you’re seeing why only 1% people have been predicting crashes for years. So why do you think it will remain such a modest correction?

Chen:
Really the answer is that it is very rare and difficult for home prices to actually fall in this country. So you have this backdrop, but first of all, there’s still just a home shortage in this country. We’re short millions of units of housing. And then on top of that, if you think about what’s happened in the mortgage market since the financial crisis, underwriting standards have increased a lot. So homeowners are actually sitting on a ton of equity. That means delinquencies are generally fairly low. There’s been an uptick in FHA delinquencies, but generally speaking across the board delinquencies are fairly low. We don’t expect there to be a lot of foreclosures in general. Lenders are more reluctant to go down that road of foreclosure versus just modifying loans these days. So we don’t expect there to be very many people who are going to be underwater on their house.
We don’t expect a lot of forced sales and without those mechanisms forcing prices to come down, what you actually see is that sellers come to the market. They might not like the prices that they’re seeing, so they just say, well, you know what, I don’t really have to sell my house. And so in our very latest weekly housing market data, we do see that new listings are starting to tick down just a little bit. Now this might be a little blip, but it might be the start of a longer trend. So we don’t want to hang too much on this. This is one data point right now, but it’s consistent with this idea that once sellers see that look, it’s not fair to favoring sellers right now. They might start to pull back a little bit, but we would still forecast that prices are going to fall through the end of this year. Because what I was just saying, based on what we see right now about the ratio of buyers to sellers, we don’t need conditions to worsen to see negative price growth. We sort of just need this to just hold essentially.

Dave:
That’s super interesting. I was actually going to ask you that question because we’ve been wondering for years now when new listings would start to go up and they have been going up and generally that’s a good thing that we were at an extremely low level of transactions and new listings, and so having that go up is good, but without the corresponding demand to absorb those new listings, I was just curious if people will start pulling back because they’ll just wait until economic conditions maybe become a little less murky than they are right now. I’m sure everyone wants mortgage rates to fall. We’ll see if and when that happens, but even I think they might just choose to do what a lot of people are doing right now, which is just wait and see more about the economy because everything seems so unclear. We do have to take one quick break, but when we come back, Chen, I’d love to talk to you a little bit more about the regional variances that you’re seeing in your data. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to On the Market. I’m here with Redfin’s Chen Zhao, and we are talking about how we have moved into a buyer’s market on a national level. You told us a little bit Chen before about places like Miami and I think there was a bunch of other places in Florida. We’re always picking on Florida these days for being in sort of the most significant buyer’s market. Is it just Florida or what are some of the broad regional trends you’re seeing?

Chen:
Yes, so in general, I would say Florida is kind of the epicenter of a lot of the weakness that we are seeing. And yes, poor Florida is always being picked on these days, but you do see similar trends happening in places like Texas for example, and really more just in the Sunbelt and in the South in general where there’s just been a lot more supply. We see similar conditions, although none are quite as extreme as what we’re seeing in South Florida. And the places where you see that there is still strength are pockets of the Midwest. And also in the Northeast we do out of the top 50 largest metro areas in the country, we see that there are about 12 that we call balance, meaning the number of buyers and the sellers that we see in the market is pretty similar but within 10% of each other. And then we actually still see seven markets that we call them sellers markets. So these are predominantly in the Northeast. I had mentioned that the most extreme case here is New York, New Jersey where there are still 47% more buyers than sellers. A lot of these markets we’ve noticed tend to be, for example, places around New York City but not in New York City. So these are places where supply has been more constrained and they are more affordable alternatives to New York City itself.

Dave:
Okay, and do you expect that to continue? Is everything going to kind of shift down a little bit or could depreciation in some markets or perhaps even accelerate?

Chen:
It does seem like it is just a matter of time in some instances because what’s happened is that supply has slowly built up. We’ve been observing this over the last two to three years. It’s been a very slow process, but at some point it reaches tipping point and the south is ahead of the Midwest and Northeast. They build a lot more, but at some point these other regions start to catch up. So we do expect that to continue to happen because what’s driving the fading of this mortgage rate lock-in effect is just people’s life circumstances and the passage of time purely at some point people just have to sell and move, but what’s more uncertain is the demand side. What we’re seeing nationally and also in places like Florida and the South is that it’s not just that supply has built up, that demand has also fallen and the demand has fallen in different places for different reasons.
But just really broadly speaking, one big driver is just this macroeconomic and policy uncertainty that we’ve had since the start of the year. And that I think can really fluctuate and change over the next six months, over the next few years. So it may be that for example, a lot of these policies really change over the next few months and then we actually could see mortgage rates falling. I mean that’s not in our forecast, but there’s so much uncertainty right now and you can see demand increasing, so we don’t have to reach the same sort of tipping point in the remaining pockets of sellers

Dave:
Markets. There is one more thing in your report that I wanted to touch on, which is sort of the difference between the single family market and condos specifically seem to be really weak. Can you tell us more about that?

Chen:
Yes. So when we look by property type, what we see is that the condo market seems to have about 83% more sellers than buyers right now. And that’s just very different than the single family market where there’s only 28% more sellers than buyers. Interesting. So I think that some of this is geography for sure, because a lot of these condos are going to be, for example in places like Florida where the market is weaker or they’re also in large urban areas like New York City or in San Francisco or other cities that just have yet to really recover fully from the pandemic still. So I think a lot of this is very much correlated with geography, but the condos are where we’re seeing most of the weakness.

Dave:
That’s an important thing to keep an eye on because a 1% drop in prices as an investor is basically flat. I don’t really think about that that much, but if you’re saying 83% more condo seller than buyer, you might start to see more than 1% drops in condos, right?

Chen:
Yeah, that’s right. And a lot of these markets, especially in condos, you’re already seeing prices falling. So this kind of 1% drops sort of across the board. But absolutely, I think you could see greater weakness happening in the condo market. I agree with you that for investors a 1% drop it is pretty much kind of just flat, but for the average buyer or seller, I think it does make a little bit more of a difference. Incomes are still increasing. So if you have incomes increasing 4%, we have prices coming down 1% on a real basis, affordability is improving and it might matter just enough for some buyers in a world where mortgage rates are really quite stuck near 7%.

Dave:
And do you have any thoughts on what changes this? Because as an investor what would matter to me is how long is this going to be going on for years? Is this a six month thing? Do you have any insight into that? I know everything’s uncertain, but have you thought about that much?

Chen:
It might be useful just to back up and think about how our forecast has changed. So last December, we were still forecasting that home prices would be increasing about 4% year over year through 2025. And now we’re really changing that forecast. And so what has changed, and it really has been that since the start of the year trade policy, immigration policy, but also for example, Congress is talking about the budget reconciliation bill and how that’s going to affect both economic growth, but then also the budget deficit. There are some real policy surprises that have happened since the start of the year, and I think that has contributed a lot to our forecast. But this volatility I think really just tells you that things can really change on a dime pretty quickly. So I think what would change our forecast a lot is if very specifically tariff policy were to change significantly over the next few months.
So what we have seen is that since early April, but maybe a little bit even before then, the average tariff rate in this country has increased substantially and then it’s been very volatile. But what’s happened is that even though it’s been very volatile, it’s actually stayed at a very high level. So right now today, the average tariff rate in this country is about, I’d call it 13 to 15% in January. That was 2.5%. So we went all the way up until 25, 20 8%. So we come down a little bit, but we’re still a lot higher than where we were. It’s not crazy to imagine that that could come down a lot more if the administration were to decide to prioritize other policies, for example, or to change its mind on certain priorities if that were to happen. I think it’s possible that a lot of what buyers and economists are nervous about in terms of the economic impact of these policies, they don’t necessarily have to come to fruition because they haven’t come to fruition yet. And so it’s possible we could still reverse course and not see that happen In that case. I do think that the end of the year for the housing market or maybe more beginning of 2026 could look pretty different than the track that we’re currently on.

Dave:
Like you said, the impact of tariffs haven’t really materialized yet. That’s not necessarily surprising. This is another one of those things that most people expect to take a little while to show up in the data. So I’m personally not super surprised by that. But even if they do materialize, is it something that’s going to directly impact housing or is it kind of these secondary impacts where people have fears of inflation that might keep bond rates higher or perhaps just people have to tighten their belts if inflation does actually materialize? Is it kind of those secondary things or is there a more direct link to housing?

Chen:
The way I think about the channels flowing from tariff policy to the housing market are a few different things. One is obviously just if you’re taring input costs that are relevant to building materials, then that’s going to impact the cost of building homes. So we know that generally if the cost of building homes increases and supply of homes has to come down and the price of homes, that’ll probably push home prices up a little bit. So that’s one kind of very direct channel. But then there’s kind of the broader economic channels. And so you touch on some of this. One is through interest rates. As long as we think that there is a possibility of higher inflation, mortgage rates have to stay pretty elevated, although you’re balancing that at the same time with this possibility of economic and labor market weakness, which would push rates down.
But so then the Fed has this balancing act of which one do you favor? I would probably tend to say that the Fed would keep rates higher rather than lower. That’s my view, although I think people may disagree on that, but I think this kind of like a third channel is really just through that kind of general economic weakness that if we start to see real weakness in the labor market that might really sort of propagate on itself, where then people are going to be a lot more worried they might actually be losing their jobs. You could see stock market impacts. There’s a lot of different impacts on demand. I think that yes, people are jittery right now, but you haven’t seen the hard data come through yet, and it is unknown how much of an impact there will be on the hard data and it’s unknown what the timing will be, but as long as we keep tariffs pretty high, the higher they are, the longer they are high, the more there is this idea that there’s another shoot that has yet to drop.

Dave:
Let’s take a quick break, but when we come back, I have a few more questions for Chen specifically about rents and what’s going on on a national and regional basis there. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to On the Market, I’m here with Chen and we are talking about everything with the housing market. We’ve covered what’s going on with the buyer’s market, some regional differences and what to expect for the rest of the year, at least in terms of property values. But let’s turn our attention to rent, which it’s kind of a big headline here. Chen, I’m reading that asking rents are falling in 28, major US metros the most in two years, so that’s more than half. So I just want to clarify that for everyone because 28 doesn’t sound like that many, but if you’re just looking at the top 50, that’s a lot. So what’s going on here? Can you tell us some of the trends? Because we’ve been hearing saying, thinking that rents would start going back up when some of the supply glut from multifamily started to work itself out. It sounds like that’s not happening. So what do you think is behind this decline in rents?

Chen:
Yeah, so this data covers the month of May, and what we’ve seen is that for the past, call it two years or so, rents have nationally speaking been pretty flat to slightly negative to sometimes slightly positive, but sort of bouncing around a little. And I think this is really keeping with that trend and we actually expect this to really continue through the end of this year. This kind of flat to slightly negative to slightly positive trend. Obviously this is on nominal terms, so if you think about this on real terms, it means that rents are actually falling,
But we also do expect that at some point rents will start ticking up again. So I agree with that thesis. I just think the timing of it is the tricky part because it is true that the supply glut, if you look at the multifamily housing units that are under construction currently, we have worked through most of that backlog, but there is still some left. So as long as we have some to work through, I think there is supply coming on that’s going to make it hard for rents to really increase. But on the other hand, the housing market is getting weaker. Buyers are pretty hesitant. We do think there are going to be a significant number of buyers that instead of buying will be thinking about renting. And then also we have a lot of more people now who are interested in selling and some of those people who are selling may not end up buying again because of the high rate environment, they might actually switch to renting. And so we do think there is going to be more demand in the rental market coupled with this backlog shrinking of supply. So if I had to make a guess today, I would say I think that rents could be ticking up in 2026. I just don’t think it’s a 2025 story though.

Dave:
I generally agree. I think even if the macroeconomic situation was a little better, again, this is another thing that lags and takes time. And we know that deliveries for multifamily, sort of the pendulum hasn’t swung all the way back in the other direction. We know it will just based on permit data, but that just hasn’t fully happened yet. And even once that does, I think it might take a little while to get there. What about regional stuff here? Is it kind of similar? Does it sort of follow the multifamily building trends in terms of what markets are seeing the biggest declines versus the ones that are more resilient?

Chen:
Yeah, I mean we do see weakness in places like Austin where we have seen a lot of weakness in the housing market and in the rental market. But I think in general, the data on rents is a little bit more volatile than the data on the housing market when it comes to the pricing. So in the Midwest for example, you see rents following places like Minneapolis and Columbus. So these aren’t places where the housing market is going to be showing a little bit more strength. And even places like Tampa, which is pretty weak in the housing market, you actually seeing rents increasing there. So it’s not as clear of a regional story as the housing market is. And I think this is partly because rents have been so flat for so long now.

Dave:
Well, thank you so much, Jen. This has been really enlightening. Is there anything else from your research you think our audience should know?

Chen:
Really what we’re focused on right now is kind of this bigger picture macroeconomic situation because times are unusual right now where macro policy is just such a big determinant of outcomes in the housing market. So we’re very focused on all the tariff stuff that we have talked about. We’re also very focused on policy changes like the privatization of the GSEs budget stories like the budget reconciliation bill and how that will affect both salt deductions in different parts of the country, but also affect the budget deficit and how that will flow through to mortgage rates. So we have very much focused on sort of that big picture question right

Dave:
Now. Yes, and why I still have a job talking about this every day because it keeps shifting, but it is incredibly important to the housing market. So thank you so much for sharing your insights with you, Chen. We really appreciate you being here.

Chen:
Of course. Yeah. Thanks so much for having me again.

Dave:
Of course. And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. We’ll see you next time.

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