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15% ROI, 5% down loans!”,”body”:”3.99% rate, 5% down! Access the BEST deals in the US at below market prices! 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In a world where economic headlines can shift by the day and traditional investments seem increasingly unpredictable, investors are searching for smarter, more secure ways to grow their wealth. 

Ignite Funding offers a compelling solution: trust deed investments backed by real estate. However, what truly distinguishes Ignite is its ability to protect investor capital through a disciplined, multilayered risk mitigation strategy. From strategic diversification and underwriting rigor to proactive default management and hands-on investor support, Ignite Funding offers a stable, income-generating opportunity rooted in real assets.

We’ll explore four key pillars of Ignite Funding’s approach: 

  • Diversification and collateralization
  • Thorough underwriting and borrower vetting
  • Active default response
  • Consistent passive income

All these factors are designed to give investors peace of mind and strong financial returns.

Diversification and Collateralization

One of the foundational pillars of Ignite Funding’s risk mitigation strategy is diversification. As any seasoned investor knows, diversification isn’t just a buzzword; it’s a safeguard. 

Ignite Funding provides access to real estate trust deed investments across a broad mix of commercial asset classes, including residential developments, multifamily units, industrial properties, and retail centers. More importantly, these investments span multiple geographic markets, primarily throughout the western United States.

By spreading investor capital across a wide array of projects and locations, Ignite significantly reduces the risk tied to any single market or property type. For example, a downturn in one regional housing market may be offset by strong performance in another. Similarly, different asset classes often respond differently to economic cycles, adding another layer of protection. This multidimensional diversification is essential to creating a balanced, resilient portfolio.

Yet diversification is only part of the equation. Every investment Ignite Funding facilitates is backed by tangible real estate collateral, secured in the form of a first-position trust deed. That means investors have a direct legal claim to the underlying property (land or structure) in the event the borrower defaults. This isn’t just paper equity; it’s a real asset that can be leveraged, foreclosed, and ultimately sold to recover funds.

In traditional investing, volatility is often accepted as the cost of potential reward. But with Ignite’s model, investors can participate in the strength of real estate while minimizing exposure to dramatic swings. This combination of broad diversification and real estate-backed collateral gives investors peace of mind that their capital is not only working, but is also protected.

Thorough Underwriting and Borrower Vetting

At the heart of Ignite Funding’s investment process lies an uncompromising commitment to rigorous underwriting. Before a single dollar of investor capital is allocated, every potential loan undergoes a meticulous due diligence process. This isn’t just a paper review; it’s a boots-on-the-ground approach that examines every facet of a project’s feasibility, from market trends and property appraisals to borrower history and exit strategy viability.

One of the key benchmarks Ignite Funding employs to limit downside risk is its conservative loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Most loans are structured at 60% to 70% of the property’s appraised value. This ensures borrowers maintain significant equity in the deal, effectively keeping “skin in the game.” The lower the LTV, the greater the cushion for investors if property values fluctuate or the borrower fails to perform.

But underwriting is only part of the equation. Equally important is the borrower selection process. Ignite Funding exclusively lends to real estate developers and operators with a proven track record of successful project execution. These aren’t first-time flippers or speculative investors, but experienced professionals who have consistently demonstrated their ability to bring projects to a successful completion, even in challenging market conditions.

This dual-layered approach, thorough underwriting, and selective borrower vetting provide a robust line of defense for investor capital. It’s how Ignite avoids overexposure to underperforming projects and why investors can confidently participate in high-yield trust deed investments without sacrificing peace of mind.

Active Default Response

While most investors hope a project never veers off course, Ignite Funding prepares for every scenario (including the unexpected). A key component of its risk mitigation strategy is a clearly defined default management process that prioritizes investor capital above all else.

If a borrower defaults on a loan, Ignite Funding doesn’t sit back and hope for the best. Instead, they step in immediately with authority and precision. Because each loan is secured by a first-position trust deed, Ignite has the legal right to take control of the underlying property. That means they can initiate foreclosure, assume project oversight, and push forward with completing or selling the project if necessary.

What sets Ignite apart is its deep familiarity with each project it funds. The team doesn’t just underwrite loans. It thoroughly understands the scope, timeline, and economics of each deal. This allows it to make swift, informed decisions in the event of borrower nonperformance.

One of the clearest demonstrations of this strategy in action is Ignite’s history of recovering (and, in some cases, enhancing) the value of defaulted properties. By leveraging their in-house expertise and third-party professionals, they can reposition troubled assets, complete stalled developments, and return capital to investors with minimal disruption.

In the volatile world of real estate lending, it’s not about avoiding every risk, but knowing how to respond when risks become reality. Ignite Funding’s proactive default management gives investors confidence that their capital is not only secured by property, but actively protected by a team that knows how to manage adversity.

Consistent Passive Income, With Hands-On Support

One of the most appealing benefits of investing through Ignite Funding is the opportunity to earn reliable, passive income without the daily burdens of property management. Investors typically receive interest payments monthly, often generating annual yields in the range of 10% to 12%. These returns are not speculative. They’re backed by active, income-producing real estate loans secured by first-position trust deeds.

But Ignite’s value doesn’t stop at attractive income potential. What truly sets the company apart is the hands-on support provided to investors at every step. From the moment you schedule an appointment, you’re matched with a licensed Business Development Executive who takes the time to understand your unique investment goals and tailor recommendations accordingly. Whether you’re brand new to trust deed investing or looking to diversify a large portfolio, Ignite ensures you receive personalized guidance.

Once your investment is in motion, the Client Services team steps in to provide ongoing support. This includes managing your investment documentation, alerting you to upcoming loan payoffs, and presenting opportunities to reinvest your funds seamlessly. For many investors, this proactive engagement eliminates the guesswork often associated with alternative investments.

Ignite also prioritizes investor education, offering webinars, FAQs, one-on-one consultations, and updates on market conditions. This educational layer empowers investors to make informed decisions while growing their real estate-backed portfolio over time.

The result? A truly passive investment experience that doesn’t sacrifice transparency or control. With consistent monthly income and responsive support, Ignite Funding makes it possible to achieve financial goals with confidence and peace of mind.

Final Thoughts

For investors looking to step beyond the volatility of public markets and into the tangible security of real estate-backed investments, Ignite Funding offers a refreshingly conservative yet consistently rewarding alternative. Their model combines old-school due diligence with modern-day responsiveness, giving you both confidence and clarity in every investment decision.

By spreading risk across diversified projects, securing each investment with first-position trust deeds, vetting only experienced borrowers, and delivering consistent passive income with personalized support, Ignite Funding makes trust deed investing accessible and reliable.

Ready to explore how your portfolio could benefit from Ignite Funding’s proven approach? Visit IgniteFunding.com to learn more, or schedule a consultation with their team today.

Ignite Funding, LLC | NVMBL #311 | AZ CMB-0932150 | Money invested through a mortgage broker is not guaranteed to earn any interest and is not insured. Prior to investing, investors must be provided applicable disclosure documents.



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Are rising interest rates putting pressure on the housing market and national debt? Join Dave Meyer as he dives into the implications of the U.S. national debt on real estate investors and everyday Americans. With the debt now surpassing the nation’s GDP, real estate experts are concerned about how this could influence housing prices and mortgage rates. Learn about the historical trends and discover how political dynamics play a role in shaping the debt trajectory. How will soaring interest payments impact future planning for investors? Tune in for insights into the possible scenarios and their effect on the housing market.

Dave:
Let’s talk about the national debt. It has been a big topic and a big problem for a long, long time, but in recent weeks it’s been making more and more news and fears of the ever increasing debt are starting to have real life impacts on the economy and the risk for potential impacts is growing more and more. So today we’re doing a deep dive into how the national debt impacts everyday people and investors. Hey everyone, it’s Dave Meyer. Welcome to On the Market. Thank you all so much for being here. You may notice if you’re watching this on YouTube, don’t have the usual background going on right now. I moved into my new house just a couple of days ago, so please bear with me while I rebuild my studio. But hopefully our video and audio quality are all fine for our big topic today.
’cause today’s topic is really important. The national debt, you’ve probably heard about it, you probably know that we got a lot of it. We have a lot of debt in this country, but I’m not sure everyone fully understands what it means that we have this large national debt and how this actually might play out logistically in the lives of ordinary Americans. And specifically how this could impact real estate investors and the housing market. Because I think as real estate investors, we typically, most of us know something about debt of real estate is a highly leveraged asset class. Most of us use mortgages in one shape or form during our investing career. And we know that debt can actually be used beneficially when it’s done in a responsible way, but debt can also be quite risky. So today I’m not just gonna be talking about sort of like the big picture number of how much debt we’re in.
You could look that up. I’m going to instead give you a little bit more history on how we got to where we are today, what’s happening in the current environment and how a ballooning national debt could spill into the everyday lives of us in the future. So let’s jump into this thing and we’re gonna start first and foremost with just what is the debt? Let’s just get that number out of the way. It is, as of right now, $36 trillion approximately, and this is a wildly huge number. I think a lot of times, especially in recent years, we get used to talking about numbers like trillions of dollars. That’s not normal. That is an enormous amount of money that we have $36 trillion. Just to put this in context, the gross domestic product, the GDP of the United States, basically the entire economy, the size of the entire US economy in one year is $29 trillion.
So if you’re doing the math in your head, you probably noticed that our debt is now bigger than the entire GDP, the entire economic output of the entire country for one year. So that’s where we’re at. But in a vacuum, just knowing $36 trillion doesn’t really help. So let’s just dig into this thing and hear what it actually means. So first and foremost, let’s just talk about like how this even claimed to be like how do we have so much debt? The fact is that the government of the United States is like most people, they can borrow money and the government does this a little bit differently. They’re not, you know, using credit cards or taking out mortgages. They do this in the form of issuing bonds. So you might hear this is called bonds or treasuries, kinda the same thing. Basically the government goes out and asks investors, do you want to lend money to the US government?
And there are auctions and basically people bid on these treasuries. So when you hear that concept, if you hear a bond or a treasury, that’s basically what’s going on. It’s basically an investor lending money to the US government. It’s not all that different from a mortgage where a bank is lending money to someone to go buy a house. When you buy a bond or you buy a treasury, what you’re actually doing is lending money to the US government and the government has to pay back that loan over time with interest. And they do this in different formats. You might hear of 30 year treasuries. The one we talk about most of the time on the show and is most relevant to real estate investor is the 10 year treasury. There are short term treasuries, but all of these things are the basic same thing. It is the US government borrowing money from investors.
And when I say investors, that could be you or me. It could be a big institution, it could be a hedge fund, it could be a foreign government. All of those count as bond investors. But whenever you hear the idea of treasuries, it’s someone lending money to the US government. So that’s the national debt and it it worth mentioning that the US is hardly the only country that has a large national debt. There are different countries have different philosophies about this, but it is not unusual for the United States to have some amount of debt. And economists generally debate how much debt is responsible and possible. But just going back in time in the United States, we’ve pretty much always had some level of national debt. So as I said, our debt is big though right now relative to historical averages and there are different ways to measure this.
So one of the way I’m gonna use in this episode is just relating the size of our debt to GDP, our gross domestic product. Right now it’s at 128%. So it is bigger than GDP. I think it’s kind of helpful to compare this to another time where our debt was this big using this metric which was right after World War ii and maybe that doesn’t strike you as odd. It does to me though because wartime is usually when you know the governments of any country, not just the US issues debt because they have a lot of things to pay for during war that is an emergency, right? And so you are willing to spend more than you earn during that time because you need to go win that war. But right now we are not in wartime. And so the fact that we have this GDP is notable and we’ll get to what that all means in a minute.
But another important metric here when we talk about the debt is not just how it relates to GDP, but it’s just how much interest we’re paying. If you’re a real estate investor, you know that principal and interest is one of your biggest expenses. And in the US the interest just on our national debt is rapidly becoming one of the biggest sources of expenses for the entire US government. So when you look at how much interest we’re paying, again, this is a loan so we have to pay interest to our lenders. The United States back in 2020 was paying $345 billion a year in interest. That’s a lot. 345 billion, that’s a third of a trillion dollars. But fast forward to 2024 last year, just four years later, it’s up to almost $900 billion just in interest. That is money that is not being put to use on any sort of spending or really any productive use other than paying back interest.
And again, some level of debt can be beneficial but obviously this is a very large number When we talk about how much the US is spending on interest at this point, when you look at it, it’s actually quite interesting to look at sort of the budget and how much money is going towards interest payments. And you can see that the big buckets are still Medicare, Medicaid and social security. That makes up about 50% just roughly, I’m gonna use round numbers here, but that makes up about 50% of spending in the United States over the last couple years. So half of it just goes to what a lot of politicians and people call entitlements. So these healthcare systems and social security then for example, we have other things like national defense, which is 13%, but just after defense 13%, which the US spends a lot of money just after that interest on our debt, 11% of our budget every year in the United States goes to interest payments, which is just wild.
And so I just wanna sort of paint the picture of where we’re at. More than 10% of our budget every single year go to interest payments. We are now higher debt to GDP ratio than we were pushed World War ii. And again, in a minute we are going to talk about what this all means. But I kind of just want to take one brief moment here to just talk about why we’re in so much debt and how this has sort of gotten to where we are. So that’s a good question, right? Why are we in so much debt ? Well in the US we we tend to like two things. One is spending money and we also generally speaking compared to the rest of the world, like low taxes. And I am not gonna spend this episode getting into the merits of each of these ideas.
But I will just say I think we can all intuitively sort of understand that those two things are at odds, right? It is difficult to spend a lot of money as a government but not to collect a lot of revenue in the form of taxes. That’s going to put you in a deficit. We like spending money as a government, but we wanna keep our revenues which are taxes low, that leads to a deficit. We are basically as a country in a situation we are, we are spending more than we earn. It’s, it’s pretty plain and simple. Now, you know, I try not to get too much into politics on this show, but I do think it is worth mentioning because there is a lot of finger pointing and blaming around the national debt that happens politically in this country. I have dug into this, I’ve looked a lot at it.
And all of the data shows both parties do this. Like this is just something that going back for a very long time, both political parties are responsible roughly equally responsible for contributing to the national debt. Going all the way back to 1913, I actually looked at this. I looked and found some studies that show Republican administrations versus Democratic administration and how much they have contributed to the national debt per term. So per presidential term and Republicans come to 1.39 trillion, Democrats are just a little bit lower at 1.22 trillion. But you know from a historical sort of data perspective, it’s roughly equal, right? They’re very close to one another. Both parties are doing it. Now how they contribute to the debt is a little bit different. Republicans tend to contribute to the debt by lowering taxes. That’s lowering what the US government earns essentially. Meanwhile, democrats tend to contribute to the deficit by increasing spending.
But either way, regardless we get more debt, we as Americans have been saddled with more debt. Now of course over the long course of history there have been wildly different times of debt. Like I, I actually looked at which president contributed to the most debt. There’s one that just is so far in front of everyone else, but it makes sense. It’s Franklin d Roosevelt because he was the president during World War ii, he actually increased the deficit by about 800%. The only one who even comes close to that is Woodrow Wilson who is the president during World War I. Those two stand out in a totally different category of contributing to the debt than any other president. After that you actually get a lot of modern presidents, which I think is really interesting. It’s not really correlated to one party or the other, it’s just a lot of the most recent presidents have contributed the most to the debt.
So after that we have Reagan, George W. Bush, Obama, HW Bush Trump during his first term, Nixon Biden, Jimmy Carter, bill Clinton. So as you can see, this trend has basically accelerated recently where pretty much all presidents over the last couple of decades have contributed considerably to the debt way more than what we were doing in the 17, 18 hundreds, early 19 hundreds. And there’s a lot of reasons for that, right? The US is positioned in the global has totally changed. We have a totally different economy. But my point here is I just wanna show both parties do it and it has gotten worse recently regardless of what party is in power. So given this, given the fact that debt has existed in the United States for a long time and you know it’s been going up pretty rapidly, you know the last time we didn’t have an annual deficit was during in Bill Clinton in the late nineties. So it has been going up, our national debt has been going up consistently for 25 years. So why is this becoming an issue now? Like if we’ve had all this debt for 25 years, like haven’t we figured out how to deal with it? Why is this becoming more and more of an issue in today’s day and age? I’m gonna get into that but we do need to take a quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to today’s on the market episode. I’m Dave Meyer and I’m here talking about the national debt, how it’s come about, what it is. And now I wanna sort of like turn our attention to why this is becoming an issue right now. There are many reasons and there are probably people screaming at their computers or their phones right now saying it’s been an issue all 25 years. And, and I agree the debt debt is a serious issue that we all need to be talking about, but it is sort of like reentering the news right now. And that’s largely in part because of the, the government is doing its budgeting and Trump and the GOP are working on their one big beautiful bill act which has a lot of spending and tax implications, which of course will either positively or negatively impact the national debt.
And so we’re naturally talking about this right now first and foremost just because like this is what’s going on in the government and so what is decided in that bill is going to have consequences for the national debt. We’ll talk about that in just a little bit. But the other reason I think at least for me it is getting more serious is because interest rates have gone up a lot, right? Because as real estate investors we know that we are impacted this because mortgage rates have gone up a lot. But remember our national debt means that the US government is a borrower too and their interest rates are also going up. We had been in the United States in a period of very low borrowing costs for quite a while from about 2007 into 2023 or so. We had relatively low bond yields and they’re still not really high in you know, historical context but you know, the government was getting money 10 year loans for 2% or 3%.
Now it’s up to about 4.4% that is the yield on a 10 year US treasury right now. But that is up. And so the fact that we are borrowing money at the same pace but the interest rate that we’re paying on that borrowed money is going up means that more and more we are gonna be devoting more of our resources to servicing that debt and that means that that money can’t go elsewhere. Basically this just means that going forward if we keep, the amount of interest we pay is gonna continue to go up. And of course there are ways this could change, right? Interest rates could go down, bond yields could fall, revenues could go up. But as it stands today, like just if you look at what’s happening today and you’re not just sort of like forecasting what could happen in the future, if you look at where we stand today and the likely path, if nothing big changes, our interest payments are going to go up and it’s going to continuously be a more and more share of our annual budget, right?
Just think about this because we have 10 year notes, right, that were issued right now in 2015 at maybe a two point half percent. So if the government needs to rebar, they pay that money back, right? And they need to rebar money here in 2025, they’re gonna be paying considerably more for that refinance, right? As real estate investors, we can kind of understand this. That is what’s happening to the US government more and more and that’s why this is becoming a more pressing issue because those interest rates are going up and sort of forcing I think more serious conversation about the national debt. Now some people might be thinking wow, well maybe we just borrow more, right? Can we just borrow more money to to pay that interest? And that’s honestly what we’ve been doing. Sure you could do that, but it means that’s gonna be at a higher and higher rate.
And as we’re going to talk about, you can probably already see where this is going that that can sort of snowball, right? You’re borrowing money to pay more interest. That’s like kind of paying off one credit card with another credit card. Not sure that’s the best idea, you know that’s the TLDR here. But hopefully you can see that this, this might not be the best situation. So that’s where we are today. But I think it’s sort of important for us to all just take a minute and talk about how this situation could actually potentially get worse and maybe potentially compound because the situation we’re in today, I will say that it’s like relatively stable. I do not think it’s a good situation that we have this much debt, but it’s not like there’s this huge acute issue where the national debt is going to crater the US economy tomorrow.
I don’t think it’s likely to really have huge negative impacts in the next couple of weeks. It could in the months or years. I don’t know. There’s some dynamics that we’ll talk about in just a minute, but as of today, like right, this isn’t impacting you and me like in some huge acute way, but there is a potential that it could like this, this could get worse and it could potentially get worse rapidly. I’m not trying to scare people or fear monger, but I do think it’s sort of important for everyone to understand how different scenarios with the debt could play out. So lemme just share some thoughts with you. We, we’ve talked about this, but the rate the government pays to borrow money on their treasuries is partially set by the Fed, right? The, the federal funds rate, which the Fed controls is important to how much the government is paying to borrow money, but it is really up to investors.
The question here is like are you willing to lend the US government? And if so, what interest rate are you going to demand in order to give up that money to the US government for that period of time? Right now if you’re gonna lend to the government, the yield that you will get is about 4.4%. But that’s not fixed, right? It’s not like the Fed says it’s 4.4%. They can influence that in ways, but it actually just goes up and down in the free market based on supply and demand. It’s how much treasuries, how much debt is the US government trying to borrow and how much willingness is there in the investor community to actually make those loans to the US government? And this demand and supply, just like everything, it fluctuates on a million different things. It fluctuates based on the stock market, the federal funds rate, bond yields in other countries, the fear of recession, the fear of inflation, those are big things that impact these yields.
And guys, this is complicated stuff I do try and talk about on the show. ’cause although it is complicated, some people think it’s boring, it has huge impacts on particularly real estate but the entire economy. But that’s just what you need to know for this conversation about debt is these things fluctuate, right? But having more debt is actually one of the variables in what yields and interest rates are on that debt. Because having a lot of debt can actually push up the interest rates on debt even further, right? Debt can create more debt and there’s this risk of a snowball effect here is just how this could play out for the economy and for real estate investors, step one, basically the US government continues to fail to address the debt because both parties are doing this and neither of them sort of figures out a way to either increase taxes, decrease spending or some combination of both.
So that instead of running at a deficit every year we’re actually running at a surplus and chipping away at our debt. So just in the scenario I’m trying to spell out here, just imagine that status quo continues and neither party figures out how to address the debt and the debt continues to go up. This probably lowers demand for us treasuries. Less people are going to want to lend money to the US government in this scenario. And you might be thinking why if there’s more debt that means that there’s more opportunity for me to lend money to the government and to earn a return on that. Well, bond investors think a little bit differently than stock investors or real estate investors. They are really worried, generally speaking about two potential scenarios. Scenario one here is that the US government defaults on its debt, right? We as investors understand this, like that’s basically instead of you paying your mortgage and getting foreclosed on the US can technically default on its debt.
There’s a scenario that could play out where we as a country get so indebted that we eventually cannot pay the interest on our loans, we cannot pay back the bond holders and those bond lose all of their money or they lose some of their investments due to a debt restructuring. And I think you can imagine this, but this would just be catastrophic for the economy and this is why regardless of party in power making the debt ceiling a a topic of political debate or sort of like in the political gains manship is super dangerous, right? I, I do believe you probably can tell by the fact that this episode exists that I believe the large national US debt is dangerous. But I think flirting with defaulting on our debt is also really dangerous and probably something that should be outside the realm of political partisanship and gamesmanship.
That’s a, that’s a rant anyway. So that first scenario that I’m trying to describe here that bond holders are really concerned about is default on its debt. But that is not the only risk for debt holders. This second scenario that a lot of debt holders, and I think this is probably a more acute fear for most debt holders right now, is that with tons of debt, if debt keeps going up the other way that the US could deal with it instead of defaulting and saying, oh we can’t pay is just to print more money, right? The United States, the treasury controls how much monetary supply there is in this country. And if the US gets to a point where they’re like, hey, we have to make hard decisions about paying for Medicare or Medicaid or military spending and servicing our interest on our debt, they might just choose to print a bit more money and that might sound appealing and governments print money all the time.
But if you do that in any, you know, significant way that typically leads to inflation, that is a very well known relationship to increasing the monetary supply and inflation. Now bond investors particularly they hate inflation. They, it is one of the things that really scares bond investors because it devalues the interest they’re receiving, right? Printing money to pay bond investors back is kind of like giving the middle finger to bond investors ’cause it’s like, hey, you lent us money and we were promising to pay you back this interest rate. Yeah, we’re technically gonna pay you that amount, but the value of each of those dollars that we’re giving you is gonna be significantly less ’cause we increase the amount of monetary supply. And this is just another bad situation for investors. Just by the way, if you’re wondering which of those two scenarios is more likely, personally, I believe scenario T is much more likely.
Like if you were US government and you were faced with the prospect of defaulting on your debt or just printing more money, I think the politically expedient thing to do would be to print more money. And that’s why that is more likely. Now of course those two first and second scenarios are the two bad ones. There is of course a positive one that could possibly happen, which is some level of what I, I would call austerity, which is basically the government decides that this is a problem and either raises taxes to increase revenue cuts spending in some way or some combination of those two things to get the debt under control, start running a national surplus and chipping away at the debt. And this is ideally going to happen also at the same time where we have economic growth. Like if we had that at the same time we could increase our tax revenues without actually raising taxes and that would also help chip away at the deficit.
And this frankly is what I think everyone bond investors, normal Americans should all be sort of rooting for is that we can get the debt back under control. It doesn’t necessarily even have to get to down to zero, but this idea that it can can keep growing and growing and growing indefinitely, the math just doesn’t bear out. And so what I think the best case scenario is, you know, you don’t wanna cut back so much all at once typically ’cause that could lead us into a recession. But I think if we could start sort of chipping away that that would be a good step. Unfortunately we haven’t really seen steps in that direction just yet. I will talk about some of the things that we’ve seen Doge doing and what’s in this new tax bill and if that’s likely to add or help the deficit. But we do need to take one more quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer talking about the national debt here today. Just before the break I was describing why debt could actually increase borrowing costs, which as real estate investors should be on your mind, right? And and I was explaining that there’s basically two negative scenarios that bond investors are worried about. The first being the potential for default, the second being for printing money. But I was also saying there is a positive possibility where we’d start to chip away at the debt. But what we’re seeing in the new tax bill, even after some cuts to federal spending is that basically everyone agrees that if this one big beautiful bill act passes, it will contribute to the debt in a way like it has over the last couple of years, but it’ll actually accelerate the debt by two to $3 trillion over the next 10 years.
And this is true regardless. You know, I, I make a point of looking at forecast and estimates across the political spectrum from people who tend to lean left, left, center, right center, all the way on the right. Like I look at all these and pretty much everyone believes that the debt is going to continue to climb from this bill. Like I, I haven’t seen any credible studies that show that this spending bill that’s working its way through Congress right now, and again it hasn’t passed, it’s still working its way through Congress is going to contribute to more debt. So all that’s to say, right? I was talking about these three scenarios and why sort of this is becoming more of an issue. I think just generally speaking, bond investors are worried about scenario one and two and they’re becoming more likely the risk of default.
I think that’s less likely. I think more people are worried about this idea that the US might start printing money to service it. Its debt that makes the value of holding these bonds a lot less. And when they’re just, the value of the bonds is less, that means there’s less demand and that pushes interest rates up. So I know I sort of like went on this long story here, but I think it’s really important to understand that what’s going on here is that bond investors are seeing the US have more and more debt. It’s climbing every single year, and they’re worried that maybe there’s gonna be inflation and that they need to get a higher interest rate in order to lend the US government to cover that risk of inflation. This is something called a risk premium. It’s basically how much the investors are going to demand from the government in order to compensate them for risks they see.
And if investors feel that there is risk of inflation, serious inflation, if there’s risk of default, that risk premium is going to go up. And maybe you’re seeing right now how this situation has the potential to spiral. And I’m not saying this is going to happen, it is not happening yet. I just want to explain how this could spiral and why there are so many prominent economists and people who are afraid of debt, right? Investors right now, if just imagine this, they get a little bit more worried about whatever it is, right? They have, they’re worried about inflation or or risk in the economy generally. So yields go up, right? Their risk premium goes up, they demand a little bit more. That’s seems okay, but it does mean that we’re paying more interest on our debt every single year, right? Then that worries investors even more because they’re saying, I don’t want to issue more debt to the us.
They’re gonna have a hard time servicing their existing debt. So we need a higher interest rate to lend in 2026 or in 2027 or whatever it is, right? So this is basically what happens, right? There is risk that leads to higher interest rate, which leads to more risk, which leads to higher interest rate. And it’s kind of this spiral that can happen that again, it’s not happening in the us but this has happened in history to other countries and other governments. And it’s why I believe that the debt is a problem that needs tackling. And since there really aren’t right now any credible solutions on the table, I think it’s a real concern. And I’m, I’m guessing out there, there are some of you who invest in a lot of gold or cryptocurrency to hedge against the risk of dollar debasement or don’t have a lot of confidence in fiat currencies.
You’re probably all nodding your head right now and agreeing that there are real concerns about this. But the other side of this is that everything is very uncertain right now and it’s hard to estimate what the risks are. But I do think it is something that as real estate investors, we really should be thinking about because as we talk about on the show almost every week, right? Mortgage rates are almost directly tied to the yield on US treasuries. And so if some of these scenarios do wind up playing out and investors start to lose confidence in US treasuries as a safe haven, then borrowing costs may go up across the entire economy. And that is true, even if the Fed lowers rates, right? We saw the Fed lower rates back in September and bond yields went up right, and mortgage rates went up. They are not perfectly correlated.
They are related to one another, but they don’t always move in lockstep. And so while everyone in real estate seems to be believing that yields are going to go down and mortgage rates are gonna get cheaper, and that is still, I think a relatively likely scenario, we do need to keep an eye on this because if the national debt continues to balloon and grow, I feel very strongly that what I’m talking about is gonna get increasingly likely, right? We might not see the declines in yields and in mortgage rates that everyone is hoping and waiting for if the debt gets outta control. Now, like I said, I don’t think this is a problem for today. It might not be a problem next week, but it could be in a couple months. It could be in a couple of years, and it’s something I think everyone needs to have on their radar. Again, I’m not trying to spark unnecessary fear, but I do think this is a legitimate economic concern that people should be thinking about. So that’s it, that’s what we got for you today. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer, I’ll see you next time.

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I get asked by real estate debt investors regularly, “Why do fix-and-flippers pay such high interest rates?”  and “Why don’t they just go to a bank?” 

It’s no secret that hard money loans are expensive, so it can be confusing why a savvy investor would pay that much for the privilege of the loan when there seem to be better options.

It is important to understand that most banks will not fund fix-and-flip projects. The loans have too short of a term and are too administratively heavy on bank resources, making the juice not worth the squeeze.

The national average fix-and-flip takes 5.5 months, according to ATTOM. A good chunk of that time is spent rehabbing the house, so there are inspections, construction draws, and constant accounting. There is a lot of hands-on servicing, which is a lot of effort, to only have the loan for 5.5 months.  

Add the fact that many fix-and-flip investors are buying the worst of the worst. Many of these houses are not habitable and, in most cases, not marketable. These are not assets a bank would ever want to own in the event of foreclosure—it does not meet their risk profile.  

If the flipper is lucky enough to find a bank that will do a fix-and-flip loan, hard money may still be a better option. Here are three reasons why smart real estate investors choose hard money over borrowing from banks. 

1. Speed

Banks are slow.  I have seen banks taking two or more months to get a deal done. 

I am experiencing this right now on an industrial building my partners and I are buying. A Minnesota bank offered a term sheet to our team two months ago, and we still have not closed. Luckily for us, the seller is understanding and has allowed us to push back the closing date, giving our bank the time they need. That is OK if the seller understands, but not all sellers are willing to wait.  

Impatient sellers are common with residential purchases, and this is especially true if there are other buyers lurking, ready to close with cash on hand.

Speed is a competitive advantage for fix-and-flip investors. Speed allows them to separate their offer from others that a seller may be considering. Offering a closing in 10 days or less is an attractive option for a motivated seller and may be more important than getting top dollar for their home. This is especially true if there is a looming deadline like a foreclosure auction.  

Hard money lenders understand the fix-and-flip business and can close fast! 

2. Flexibility 

Banks are highly regulated, with strict guidelines that must be met before they are able to originate a loan. Criteria like high credit scores, easy-to-document income, and liquidity are essential to getting a deal done. Many banks also want to see cash flow from a property, which vacant homes under construction will not produce.  

Hard money lenders have what I like to call common-sense underwriting standards. Sure, they need to do some due diligence to ensure they keep their money safe, but they understand that a successful project is what is needed to get paid back not W-2 income.  

For example, being a self-employed borrower with an irregular income stream could easily prevent a bank from loaning money to you. But if you have a strong deal, a co-signer, or something else that makes the hard money lender comfortable, they will still loan you the money.  

It is about telling your story on what you plan to do and how you plan to pay the loan back. Because there is so much flexibility with hard money lenders, each one will have different standards or guidelines, and each will have different areas where they are willing to make exceptions.  A good credit score may be required for one, while another may not pull your credit at all.  

Having a strong value proposition and brokering relationships are truly keys to having the money available when you are ready to purchase. 

3. Higher Leverage

This is probably what separates hard money lenders from banks the most. As stated, each hard money lender will have different guidelines, which include down payment requirements. Most hard money lenders will require a smaller down payment, while banks require large ones. 

For example, it is highly common for a bank to require 25% to 30% down on loans to real estate investors. It is also common for hard money lenders to only require 10% down. Sometimes, they will not require a down payment at all. 

Increasing leverage on a deal accomplishes several things. Money is finite, so everyone has a limited supply. Hard money is more expensive and will likely create less profit on each deal, but limiting the amount of down payments creates options. 

The real estate investor may be able to get a deal done that they would not have been able to if forced to put down 30%, or maybe they can do two or three deals instead of just one. Giving up some profit on one deal to enable a second or a third can easily create higher income. 

Hard money lenders allow investors to scale and accomplish more. This is the real key to why fix-and-flippers love hard money loans. 

Final Thoughts

All this said, there is an obvious downside to hard money loans. Higher leverage creates higher risk, and those high rates can turn a good deal into a bad one quickly. Investors should stay focused, stick to strict buying criteria, and move fast when utilizing this creative lending source.  

Hard money loans are an important and powerful tool that can create opportunities that are not possible with banks, but they are higher risk and should be used conservatively.



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Not long ago, we appeared to be staring into the abyss of a recession. Goldman Sachs had put the odds of a global recession in 2025 at 60%, although it has now dropped that estimate to 35%. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis concluded that GDP in Q1 2025 decreased 0.3%, although estimates for Q2 are positive.

Given this situation and the enormous rise in housing prices over the last 15 years, many believe we are about to see a repeat of 2008. I explained some time ago why, even if there is a recession, there will be no repeat of 2008 in the housing market. But I’ve had enough run-ins with angry commenters explaining how the real estate market is about to collapse to know this perspective isn’t universally shared.

Part of it may be that with some dark economic clouds on the horizon, there is a tendency to believe the next economic crisis will be like the last, despite it rarely working out that way, historically speaking. However, some of it may just be that enough time has passed that many of us have forgotten what exactly caused the greatest real estate meltdown in American history.

So, let’s jump back in time to revisit the absolute madness that was the housing market in the first decade of the 21st century.

“Housing Prices Always Go Up”

I started investing in real estate in 2005 (good timing, right?), and one of the first things I heard was the very odd-sounding phrase, “Housing prices always go up.” Admittedly, the phrase itself usually came with a caveat: “OK, not always, but just about.” 

Still, the sentiment hovered about like the air you breathed at the time and was said or implied in a thousand different ways. Now, obviously, it wasn’t true, but more importantly, why would anyone even think this? 

Part of the reason for this mass delusion was that there is a kernel of truth in it. On a country-wide basis, housing prices rarely go down. Indeed, if you’re on social media, you have very well seen this chart floating around:

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Now, remember, this was 2005, so there were only two negative years between 1950 and then, and both of those were less than 1%  negative. That sounds pretty encouraging, especially when you compare it to a similar chart for the S&P 500, which is littered with red years. 

Unfortunately, while the chart is factually correct, there are many problems with it. First, it doesn’t go back far enough. Notice how the Great Depression isn’t included

This reminds me a bit of Long Term Capital Management. The founders won a Nobel Prize in economics for their mathematical approach to arbitrage. But that math was only based on a few years of data. So when a black swan event occurred (namely, Russia’s debt default in 1998), the company collapsed in historic fashion. It was so over-leveraged that it threatened to bring down the entire global economy and ended up requiring a U.S. government bailout. (Spoilers for 2008, by the way.)

The second problem with that chart is that it only looks at nominal returns. When you go back to the turn of the century and also adjust for inflation, the chart looks quite a bit less favorable.

image1

When you put it on a chart, the year-over-year changes look pretty modest for the most part until just before the beginning of the new millennium.

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Observations and Notes

(For those wondering why I don’t believe the recent sharp uptick is near as problematic as 2008, see here.)

What really got people thinking that housing prices were immune to price corrections was the dot-com bust and the 2001 recession. GDP fell only 0.6% due to the tech stock-induced bust that caused the S&P 500 to fall 43% from peak to trough, and the Nasdaq plummeted 75%.

Real estate prices, however, were not just resilient—they were great. Housing prices went up 

9.3% in 2000 and 6.7% in 2001 (and over 5% in real terms both years). Real estate became viewed as a completely safe haven in contrast to the precarious nature of the stock market. A sort of irrational exuberance formed around the housing market. 

I remember talking to one seller in 2006 who said he wanted to hold the property for another year so he could sell for 10% higher, as if it was some law of nature that properties go up in value on a preset schedule.

The fundamentals underlying the housing market had truly fallen completely out of whack and came down to Earth with a horrendous thud. From peak to trough, housing prices nationwide fell 30%. The stock market did even worse, falling almost 50% and not reaching its pre-crash high again until 2012. Approximately 9 million jobs were lost, and the unemployment rate peaked at over 10%. One estimate found that household wealth declined by over $10 trillion. 

In 2008, there were over 2.3 million foreclosure filings, more than triple the number in 2006. And 2009 and 2010 were both even worse, with over 2.8 million each. The number of foreclosure filings wouldn’t return to the 2006 level until 2017.

So Who Did What?

As I’m sure you can remember, there was an enormous amount of debate after the bottom fell out about whether Wall Street or the government caused the crash. But the thing is, we need to embrace the “genius of the AND.” 

Wall Street and the government both did it. They both did in spades. 

We’ll start by looking at the claim that deregulation caused the collapse. On this point, the answer is, sort of.

Deregulation myths 

The mantra on the left was that greed had caused the crash, as if greed had just been invented sometime around the turn of the century. When pressed a bit harder, deregulation would be the stated culprit, and this is where I (partially) diverge from a lot of liberal commentators. 

Deregulation did play a role, but oddly enough, the most common scapegoat for deregulation did not. That scapegoat was the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act that was passed in 1999 and overturned part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1932. 

Glass-Steagall separated commercial banking and investment banking and prohibited any institution from engaging in both activities. Gramm-Leach-Bliley didn’t even completely undo this part; it just made it so that both types of firms could be consolidated under a single holding company. 

Now, admittedly, I think there’s a very good case for separating these two types of banks. This legislation likely contributed to the major consolidation of financial institutions we’ve seen in the last few decades and helped to embed the “too big to fail” mantra. But there is little reason to think this had anything to do with the crash. As economist Raymond Natter pointed out:

“[T]hese allegations never specify the exact link between [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act] and the crisis. The reason is that there is no readily apparent link between the two events. Simply put, the provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act that were repealed by GLBA did not prohibit the origination of subprime mortgage loans, to the securitization of mortgage loans, or to the purchase of mortgage-backed securities that resulted in the large losses that banks and other investors suffered when the housing bubble finally burst.”

Indeed, if you look at the biggest banking collapses during that crisis, none of them were acting as or holding both an investment bank or commercial bank. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were exclusively investment banks, and Washington Mutual (the largest bank failure in U.S. history) was exclusively a commercial bank. 

It should also be noted that Canada had no equivalent to Glass-Steagall and yet had not a single bank failure in 2008. European countries also never had any such wall separating commercial and investment banks.

That is not, however, to say that regulation (or the lack thereof) had no part to play.

The role of regulation (and deregulation) in the crash

There are three ways in which I believe the regulatory framework of the United States leading up to 2008 played a significant role in the crash. The first is where liberal economists are at least partially right. For all the ink spilled over Gramm-Leach-Bliley, the real piece of deregulation that exacerbated the crisis was the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. This law deregulated over-the-counter derivative trades like the infamous credit default swap. 

Credit default swaps began in 1994 before that legislation was passed, but they really took off afterward, especially as investors who saw the crash coming—such as Michael Burry and John Paulson—bought them in droves. Credit default swaps are an absurd financial instrument where a financial institution will pay a third-party investor a stream of monthly payments unless an underlying loan goes into default, in which case the institution will pay out the security’s value to the investor. 

Credit default swaps effectively act as a sort of bizarro-world insurance where the insurance company pays monthly premiums to you unless your house burns down, in which case, you have to pay the insurance company the cost to repair your home.

This increased the demand for mortgage-backed securities, but it certainly didn’t in and of itself cause the housing crisis, nor even the housing bubble to inflate as much as it did. But what it absolutely did do was dramatically exacerbate the financial carnage once the bubble started to deflate, as financial institutions had to deal with both massive losses on their loans and many also had to pay out huge lump sums on all the credit default swaps they had purchased. 

AIG—which specialized in selling insurance to financial institutions and ended up requiring the biggest government bailout—was especially hammered by its exposure to credit default swaps.

The second problem with the regulatory framework was what economists refer to as moral hazard. This refers to the expectation large financial firms have that if things really go sideways, Uncle Sam will foot the bill. This expectation creates an incentive to engage in risky behavior. After all, if you went to Vegas and knew the government would pick up the tab if you lost, wouldn’t you just let it ride?

It’s mostly forgotten today, but the 1990s saw a wave of government bailouts. First, in 1989, the U.S. government provided $50 billion to bail out failed Savings and Loans institutions. In 1995, the government provided a $50 billion bailout to Mexico to help stabilize the peso. In 1998, the government arranged the aforementioned $3.6 billion bailout of Long Term Capital Management just after it was offering bailouts to South Korea and Indonesia during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. 

It had just become common wisdom that if your bank was big enough and you ran it into the ground, the taxpayers would pick up the tab (and you could still give yourself a nice bonus afterward for such a good day’s work). 

Needless to say, such incentives didn’t help. But it got even worse when the crisis actually came, and the government acted erratically by bailing out Bear Stearns while letting Lehman Brothers fail. This left investors in the dark as to what to expect. 

Lastly, the government failed to enact any regulation that might have stopped or at least blunted the impact of the housing bubble. Brooksley Born, as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, tried to regulate derivatives, but without any luck. 

Beyond that, the government made no attempt to deflate what was becoming a clear bubble. The ratio of median annual income to housing prices had grown from 3.5 in 1984 to 5.1 in 2007. By itself, this might not have raised an alarm, as interest rates were much lower in 2007 than they were in 1984. But just a little digging made it easy to see just how fragile the market actually was.

For one, almost 35% of mortgages being taken out on the eve of the crash were adjustable-rate loans, often with low-interest “teaser” rates.

image6
Yahoo! Finance

Furthermore, the number of poorly qualified buyers should have been extremely disconcerting. Whereas about 75% of mortgages originated in 2022 had a credit score of 760 or more, that was less than 25% in 2007. Around 15% had credit ratings under 620.

image3
Yahoo! Finance

At no point did the government make a concerted effort to rein in adjustable-rate, teaser loans, stated income approvals (the dreaded NINJA loans: No Income No Job No Assets), or anything like that. In fact, they were too busy pouring gasoline on the fire.

The government’s role in the crisis

The government’s role as watchdog for the financial markets was more a case of the fox guarding the hen house. Instead of deflating the housing bubble, the government’s actions were clearly geared toward blowing it up.

In a case of bipartisan insanity, the Democrats’ push for affordable housing and the Bush administration’s push for an “ownership society” coalesced into a ticking time bomb. Apparently, owning a home was all that mattered. Whether you could afford it was a question only Debbie Downers liked to ask.

A variety of legislative acts were passed to increase homeownership and encourage banks to lend to low-income households. The most famous of these acts was the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act, which the Clinton administration used far more aggressively than previous administrations had.

Yet this was only a small piece of the puzzle. The big problems involved the Federal Reserve and the two most famous government-sponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We’ll start with Fannie and Freddie.

In 1999, Steven Holmes wrote an infamous piece for The New York Times, “Fannie Mae Eases Credit to Aid Mortgage Lending.” In it, he wrote, “[T]he Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.” 

Holmes went on to quote then-Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines:

“Fannie Mae has expanded homeownership for millions of families in the 1990s by reducing down payment requirements. Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.”

Holmes then ominously notes, “In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk.”

You think?

Fannie Mae was set up in the wake of the Great Depression to buy mortgages on the secondary market in order to expand homeownership. Freddie Mac was later created in 1970 to expand the secondary market with an added focus on serving smaller financial institutions. Combined, they support a whopping 70% of the mortgage market in the United States.

Fannie and Freddie led the charge on expanding mortgage-backed securities, with over $2 trillion in MBS in 2003 and dwarfing all private institutions until 2005. Approximately 40% of all newly issued subprime securities were purchased by either Fannie or Freddie in the run-up to the financial crisis. And these institutions generally set the tone for other market participants to follow.

Remember, that New York Times article came out in 1999. Here’s what happened to subprime in the years that followed.

image5
Cato Institute

Subprime adjustable-rate mortgages ended up having an astronomical delinquency rate—over 40%! On the other hand, prime fixed-rate mortgages never had a delinquency rate exceeding 5%, even at the height of the crisis.

The Federal Reserve also had a major role to play. The fact that the then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke could claim “the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers” in May 2007 shows, at best, they were asleep at the wheel. But the Fed’s role in the crisis is much deeper than that.

It goes back to the 2001 dot-com bust. It was at that time that economist Paul Krugman gave his infamous advice on how to get the economy back on its feet:

“To fight this recession, the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”

And that’s exactly what the Fed did. 

Despite the 2001 recession being quite mild, the Fed held interest rates at (what were then) historic lows. The Fed pushed the federal funds rate down from about 6.5% in 2001 to 1%, and then held it there until the middle of 2004. 

Austrian economists like to talk about the “natural rate of interest,namely, what interest rates would be if they were set by the market, given the demand for loans and the amount of savings available. Keynesian economists would argue that it’s not so simple. Regardless of that controversy, there is certainly a natural range of interest. And given the strong rebound from the 2001 recession (i.e., high demand) and abysmal savings rate at the time (i.e., low supply), the price of money should have been significantly higher than it was. 

(On a side note, when loans go into default, money is literally taken out of existence, which is a major reason that, despite very low interest rates after the crisis, inflation was low and, at least for a while, asset prices didn’t skyrocket.)

At the beginning of this article, I noted how real estate prices increased by over 5%  in real terms in 2001. This is why. The Fed’s excessively low rates inflated housing prices, creating a false sense that real estate always went up.

And given both the government’s behavior and Wall Street’s behavior, that excess liquidity made its way into blowing up the real estate bubble (both before and after the bubble burst in different ways).

Wall Street’s role in the crisis

I am generally in favor of a free market, but I do find it a bit odd the way many defenders of capitalism blamed it all on the government in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It was as if poor Goldman Sachs and the downtrodden Countrywide just had to make a bunch of farcically complex derivatives because the government was pushing banks to lend more and more to less and less-qualified borrowers. 

We should remember that 60% of subprime mortgages did not go to Fannie and Freddie. These were issued by commercial banks themselves. And then those terrible loans were securitized into obscure financial instruments that hid their underlying risk and sold all over the world, as will be discussed shortly.

No, Wall Street’s behavior before the crash was atrocious. Although it wasn’t just Wall Street, unfortunately. The problems were systemic. 

For one, there was a disastrous disconnect between those issuing loans and those buying them. Mortgage originators got paid for issuing loans. Once they were issued, the issuer would sell the mortgage and move on to the next borrower. The incentives were all backwards

And as one might expect, such terrible incentives laid the groundwork for rampant fraud. A paper by John M. Griffin on the role of fraud in the crisis is worth quoting at length:

“Underwriting banks facilitated wide-scale mortgage fraud by knowingly misreporting key loan characteristics underlying mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Under the cover of complexity, credit rating agencies catered to investment banks by issuing increasingly inflated ratings on both RMBS and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Originators who engaged in mortgage fraud gained market share, as did CDO managers who catered to underwriters by accepting the lowest-quality MBS collateral. Appraisal targeting and inflated appraisals were the norm.”

The collateralized debt obligations mentioned by Griffin were packages of mortgages that Wall Street firms often sliced and diced in a way to obscure the underlying risk. These instruments offered the illusion of diversification. But given that, at least for the lower tranches of such CDOs, that diversification amounted to nothing more than a diverse array of garbage, it didn’t offer much security. 

In the end, as Niall Ferguson concluded, “The sellers of structured products boasted that securitisation allocated assets to those best able to bear it, but it turned out to be to those least able to understand it.”

The crisis was globalized by this manner of securitizing garbage and selling it off to the unsuspecting. (Although, while the global crisis started in the United States, many other countries had housing bubbles as well.)

Lastly, there were the rating agencies that consistently put their triple-A stamp of approval on farcically complex securities, backed by subprime, teaser-rate NINJA mortgages right up until the whole house of cards collapsed. The biggest problem with these agencies was pretty simple: They are “issuer-paid,” which created an enormous conflict of interest.  

The proper role of financial institutions is to effectively distribute capital in a manner that allows entrepreneurs to expand their businesses and consumers to purchase homes and other expensive assets they can afford, and to do so in a way that grows the economy while mitigating risk. What actually happened, however, was that throughout the run-up to the collapse, Wall Street did virtually nothing to ameliorate risk, and instead engaged in extremely risky, highly leveraged, and overly complex behavior to maximize profits in the most myopic and shortsighted way possible. The results shouldn’t have been surprising.

They certainly deserved no pity, nor our tax dollars (although that’s another story).

Final Thoughts

The 2008 financial crisis was easily the biggest economic disaster of my lifetime and has had lasting effects on the real estate industry, as well as the economy as a whole. Indeed, it’s had an enormous effect on our collective psyche, particularly for those of us in real estate. In a variation of Godwin’s Law, the longer a conversation about real estate goes, the likelihood of the 2008 real estate crash being brought up approaches one.

Lately, many have been warning that we are facing a second such crash. Again, that is highly unlikely. The fundamentals of real estate are far sounder now than then. Financial crises and recessions rarely play out the same way twice in a row. 

In 1929, it was an overvalued stock market and a foolhardy attempt to return to the gold standard at pre-World War I prices. In the ‘70s, it was an oil shock and the inflationary consequences of “guns and butter”; in 2001, it was the dot-com bust; in 2008, it was housing; and let us not forget, in 2020, a pandemic.

Next time around, given the way things are going, it very well might be a sovereign debt crisis. Hopefully not. But either way, it’s still critical to understand how such a disaster came about to avoid it from happening again, and also so as not to assume a run-up in prices necessarily means it’s happening again.

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Real estate investors are eschewing the tried-and-trusted strategy of buying and holding assets for the long term and jettisoning their rental properties to escape a softening market, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

Data from Realtor.com’s Investor Report showed that about 11% of all homes sold in the U.S. last year were from investors, the highest percentage in that sector since 2001. The median sale amount for these rental properties was approximately $350,000, the report says. 

Data showed that investors sold more than they bought in 2024, with sales increasing by 5.2% year over year. In total, investors sold 509,000 properties last year, a figure significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, although lower than in 2021 and 2022, when buyer demand reached an all-time high.

“The reason behind investor sales has shifted since the [COVID-19] pandemic heyday,” Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones said on her company’s website. “Investors may no longer be selling to cash in on soaring home values, but rather due to market softening and easing rents.”

Investors in the Midwest, South Are Selling the Most Rentals

Crunching the numbers, the Midwest and South experienced the most investor sales, specifically in Missouri and Oklahoma, where each state saw landlords part with 16.7% of the market share of sales. Georgia was close behind with 15.9%, followed by Kansas, Utah, and Nevada, with 14.3%.

Interestingly, these states also saw the most buying activity, with investors in Missouri buying 21.2% of all homes, followed by Oklahoma (18.7%), Kansas (18.4%), Utah (18%), and Georgia (17.3%).

Investors Bought Homes Priced Right Under $300,000

Realtor.com contends that the most affordable markets in the U.S. attract investors who cannot afford to buy elsewhere due to the general housing shortage. Their data shows that investors bought homes priced at $282,000, which was more than $70,000 less than the median sales price. 

“As a result, budget-conscious buyers often find themselves in direct competition with investors for the most affordable properties, a contest many are unable to win,” Jones said.

Small Investors Increased Their Share

Realtor.com’s report showed that mom-and-pop investors with fewer than 10 properties made up a significant 59.2% of investor purchases, the highest percentage ever recorded, while larger investors, with 50 or more homes, dropped to 21.7% of purchases—the lowest percentage since 2007.

In total, smaller investors purchased 361,900 homes in 2024, up 3.7% year over year. The report showed that the states with the largest growth in investor purchases compared to 2023 were Delaware, Ohio, and Washington D.C. Conversely, investor selling grew the most in Mississippi, Nevada, and South Dakota.

Most Investors Used Debt

Despite a high-interest rate environment, data shows that most investors still prefer to use debt to buy their rental properties rather than pay all cash. Small investors saw their cash purchase share of the market fall from its peak of 65.6% back in 2023 to 62% in 2024, marking the lowest small investor cash purchase share since 2008. However, leveraging would only be effective in places where it is affordable, such as less expensive homes in areas with the most buying activity, primarily in the Midwest and South.

Even here, to cash flow at current rates, investors would still need to make a sizable down payment, which would be more affordable in more affordable markets, or buy at a deep discount. The changing investment landscape marks a notable shift from recent years when a lack of inventory led to bidding wars and multiple offers.

“Investor trends signal a transition,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com, in a press release. “Nationwide, investors picked up more homes on net in 2024, as smaller investors were a growing majority of investor buyers. But with investors selling at a new high, the market saw the smallest net investor buying activity in five years, lessening one of the notable headwinds for entry-level buyers who often compete with investors.”

Reasons for Selling: The Hard Reality of Investing

The headlines speak volumes. Investors are jumping ship in record numbers. Although the advantages of owning real estate, especially investment real estate, have been proven to be great wealth builders, the reality is that it’s very challenging. Many buyers get in over their heads before they realize they don’t know what they’re doing or regret blindly following an investment guru, friend, or realtor into buying an investment they shouldn’t have.

Financial media guru Suze Orman is rarely a sounding board for investors, but there is a lot of truth in her advice to novice investors about being wary about investing in rentals due to the cost of maintenance, property taxes, real estate agent fees, and the difficulty of being able to sell. 

BRRRRing at the Wrong Time

The Realtor.com data did not account for interest rates, which have remained stubbornly high. Many investors may have purchased homes with hard money, expecting rates to stay low so they could implement the BRRRR strategy. However, upon completing their rehab and coming to refinance, rates had risen to 7%, no longer making the rental a good investment without cash flow, leaving them with no choice but to sell.

Investing Without Deep Pockets 

Unless you have extra cash set aside to account for vacancies and maintenance, owning a rental property can become a financial drain that only pays off after holding it for a long period. Amidst economic uncertainty associated with layoffs and tariffs, people are no longer as secure in their jobs as they once were, which could again be a reason to sell. 

Stiff Competition for Tenants

Although small investors comprise the majority of the U.S. single-family buying demographic, Wall Street has this valuable commodity in its sights and has been spending billions to capture the market. With many buyers unable to get onto the property ladder due to high prices, insurance, and interest rates, REITs have been purchasing their own built-to-rent communities in large numbers.

AvalonBay Communities, one of the largest multifamily real estate investment trusts in the U.S., recently purchased a set of 126 build-to-rent townhomes in Bee Cave, Texas, for $49 million, according to The Wall Street Journal. The firm said it intended to invest billions.

“We think we’re really in the early stages of what could be a pretty significant, almost new asset class,” AvalonBay’s chief investment officer, Matt Birenbaum, told the Journal. Build-to-rent communities doubled in housing starts from 2020 to 2024, increasing by double digits in many areas, according to the National Association of Realtors’ analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Other powerhouse REITs getting into the market include Blackstone, Invitation Homes, and Premium Partners. 

Although Birenbaum told the Journal, “We are not competing with individuals trying to buy individual homes in the private market,” the fact is that they are competing for the same tenant base. REITs have the advantage of building brand-new homes with the economies of scale, offering amenities, and having deep pockets. They are a natural draw for many tenants as long as their price points are affordable, causing the tenant pool to shrink for smaller investors.

Final Thoughts 

The housing shortage, particularly in the Northeast and California, means that small landlords will have a much better chance of finding tenants here than in the Sunbelt, where construction has boomed since the pandemic. However, prices are higher in the coastal markets and the chances of cash flowing less if you have not owned the property for a long time.

If interest rates remain high and economic uncertainty persists, rents will eventually soften. There will inevitably be an inflection point where, even in less expensive markets in the Midwest and South, investors will find it harder to justify owning rentals that are not cash-flowing. We may have already reached it.

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It’s a question a lot of people are asking right now—and honestly, it’s a fair one. Interest rates are still high, home prices haven’t come down the way many hoped, and trying to find a cash-flowing deal in today’s market feels like searching for a needle in a haystack. For both new and experienced investors, the math just isn’t penciling out like it used to. 

But here’s the truth: Waiting on the sidelines isn’t always the safer option. Yes, the market is challenging—but it’s not unworkable. In fact, some of the best investors I know aren’t trying to time the market perfectly. They’re just staying active and consistent, and using the tools available to keep building momentum. 

We’ll break down what’s really going on in the market, why now is still a good time to invest for the long term, and how a fractional real estate investment platform can help you stay in the game—even when great deals are hard to find. 

What’s Happening in the Market Right Now?

Interest rates are still high

After hitting historic lows in 2020, interest rates have climbed rapidly—hovering around 7% as of early 2025. For investors, this significantly increases borrowing costs. A rental property that looked like a great deal two years ago might cash flow poorly (or not at all) under today’s rates. Financing is more expensive, and underwriting is tighter across the board.

Home prices aren’t dropping

Despite these higher rates, home prices remain elevated due to a persistent lack of inventory. Many homeowners are “locked in” with sub-4% mortgage rates and have no incentive to sell, which means fewer properties on the market. That tight supply keeps prices stable—or even rising—in many metros, even while affordability worsens.

The result? A tougher investing environment

For investors, this creates a squeeze: higher prices, higher debt costs, and more competition for fewer deals. Whether you’re trying to BRRRR, flip, or hold for long-term rentals, the path to profit is narrower than it used to be.

It’s understandable why some investors feel frozen right now. But sitting back and waiting for perfect conditions often leads to missed opportunities—especially in a market that still favors long-term appreciation.

Why Waiting Could Cost You More in the Long Run

It’s tempting to sit on the sidelines and wait for things to “normalize.” But if there’s one thing the past few decades have taught us, it’s this: Timing the real estate market is almost impossible—and waiting often costs more money than it saves.

Real estate rewards long-term thinking

Over the last 30 years, despite market volatility and economic downturns, U.S. home prices have trended upward. According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the average home price in the U.S. has more than tripled since the 1990s. Even when factoring in the 2008 housing crash, values recovered and then surged—reaching new highs.

Had you bought at the peak before the crash and held long term, you still would have come out ahead.

The danger of “waiting for the right time

Trying to time your entry perfectly can lead to years of inaction. In the meantime, inflation continues, rents rise, and opportunities pass you by. 

Meanwhile, investors who stayed active—adjusting their strategies to fit the market—continued to build equity, earn cash flow, and grow their portfolios.

Start where you are

You don’t need to buy a 10-unit apartment building tomorrow. But you do need to keep moving. The longer you wait, the more expensive it can become to get back in—and the more opportunities you leave on the table.

What to Do When You Can’t Find a Deal

Let’s be honest: Finding a solid investment property right now takes serious effort. Off-market deals are competitive, sellers are holding out for peak prices, and anything that cash flows in today’s interest rate environment gets snatched up quickly. 

If you’re a new investor, that can feel overwhelming. If you’re experienced, it can feel like a waste of time chasing deals that no longer make sense.

So, what do you do when you want to invest but can’t find the right property? You adapt.

Staying on the sidelines is one option—but it means missing out on appreciation, passive income, and the long-term benefits of compounding. A smarter move is to find ways to stay invested, even if it means using tools or strategies that look different from what you’re used to. 

And that’s exactly where Realbricks comes in. Realbricks is a fractional real estate investing platform designed for today’s market—where deals are harder to find and investors are looking for smarter, simpler ways to stay active.

Instead of spending hours searching for properties, analyzing numbers, and negotiating with sellers, Realbricks lets you invest in professionally underwritten real estate deals starting at just $100. You’re buying ownership in real, income-generating properties—and earning passive income without ever needing to manage a tenant or fix a leaky faucet.

Here’s why Realbricks stands out in this market:

  • No deal hunting required: Realbricks finds properties, does the due diligence, and handles all the management.
  • Perfect for rookies: New investors can start small, learn the ropes, and build confidence without a huge capital commitment.
  • Ideal for seasoned investors: If you’re focused on stabilizing your current portfolio or want to stay diversified without adding more work, this is a low-effort way to keep your money moving.
  • Passive income: Earn quarterly dividends from rental income without doing any of the hands-on operations.
  • Portfolio diversification: Spread your investment across multiple properties and markets.
  • IRA-compatible: You can even invest through a self-directed retirement account for long-term tax-advantaged growth.
  • Built-in management: Realbricks handles everything—operations, tenants, maintenance, and finances.

It’s one of the few ways you can keep investing in real estate right now, without chasing deals that no longer make sense or tying up your time in active management.

A Real Strategy for a Real Market

The current market requires flexibility. Traditional strategies—like buying undervalued properties or BRRRR-ing your way to scale—are harder to execute with today’s rates and prices. But that doesn’t mean you should pause your investing efforts. It means you should pivot.Realbricks is built for exactly this type of environment. When financing is expensive, inventory is tight, and time is limited, fractional investing gives you a way to stay active without overextending yourself.

Whether you’re just getting started or already managing a portfolio, Realbricks helps you:

  • Stay invested even when market conditions are tough
  • Keep earning while stabilizing other properties or projects
  • Diversify easily without spending months searching for the perfect deal
  • Buy back your time by letting someone else handle operations

This isn’t a workaround—it’s a real investment strategy designed for how the market works right now.

Realbricks Makes It Possible to Invest Smart—Even in a Tough Market

The current real estate market isn’t easy. High interest rates, limited inventory, and tough competition have made it harder for investors to find solid deals that actually make sense. But tough markets don’t mean you should stop investing—they just mean you need to get creative.

Realbricks gives you a real solution: a way to continue building your portfolio, generating passive income, and staying in the game—without the stress of hunting for deals or managing properties. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to balance your existing investments, this platform helps you move forward—without the traditional barriers.

You don’t need to time the market perfectly. You just need to keep taking action. Realbricks gives you the tools to do that—on your terms, and in today’s real-world conditions.

BiggerPockets investors: Use codeBP50 to get $50 of bonus shares instantly with your first investment.



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How do you buy a rental property in 2025 that actually performs—one that generates cash flow, mitigates market risk, and puts you on a sustainable path toward financial freedom?

It’s a question I hear often, and it’s a fair one. The market today isn’t what it was in 2015, 2020, or even 2023. Rates are high, prices in some metros have corrected, and economic uncertainty is forcing investors to think more critically before deploying capital. But despite the noise, it’s still absolutely possible to buy rental properties in this market and do it profitably.

While macro conditions are always shifting, the fundamentals of smart investing remain consistent. What has changed is how you apply those fundamentals in different cycles.

So, in this guide, I’ll walk you step-by-step through how I’d approach buying a rental property in 2025—focusing on risk-adjusted returns, market timing, and how to succeed in a more volatile environment.

Step 1: Start With Strategy

Too many new investors start by looking at properties without knowing what they’re trying to accomplish. I know that looking at listings is the fun part, but it’s always better to take a step back and do some strategic thinking before you start targeting properties.

The first step before any investment is to get clear on your investment goals. Are you primarily focused on cash flow to support your monthly income? Do you want to invest for appreciation in a high-growth market? Or are you targeting tax advantages and long-term equity buildup?

Strategy also involves defining your involvement level. Are you looking to be hands-on and self-manage a local single-family rental? Or would you prefer a more passive approach with a property manager in a different market?

Once you’ve defined your goals, take the time to study macro trends on a national level and in your market. Check out our On The Market podcast and BiggerPockets Market Finder to ensure your strategy is aligned with market realities. You may want to be a cash flow investor in San Francisco, but that doesn’t always work, and sometimes, you need to adjust parts of your strategy to account for the realities on the ground. 

Step 2: Choose a Market and Neighborhood 

Given the strategy you defined, you need to pick a location (both a market and a specific neighborhood) that aligns with that strategy. This is always the case, as investment performance is highly tied to location, but it’s especially true in 2025. 

We’re in the midst of a softening market, where prices are likely to drop in some major metros. This doesn’t mean you can’t buy there, but it does mean you need to know the dynamics of your neighborhoods and need to buy under market value. 

My recommendation is to focus on markets that have strong long-term fundamentals like job growth, household formation, and a diversified economy. Even though prices may flatten or even fall in some of these markets, locations with strong fundamentals will be insulated against the biggest risks, and will rebound the quickest in the future. 

All that said, of course, you don’t want to buy a property that is likely to decline in value, even if you’re in a great market, which is why you need to focus on a buy box that mitigates your downside risk. 

Step 3: Build a 2025-Proof Buy Box

A buy box is a critical part of buying a rental property in any condition, but in 2025, you need to add some specific criteria. 

First, build around the normal elements of a buy box: price range, asset type (SFR, duplex, small multifamily), age and condition, and minimum expected cash flow. (I need a minimum of 2%-3% CoCR after stabilization for an excellent asset and a higher CoCR for lower-appreciating properties.) 

There is a time and place for risk-tolerant investors to buy for appreciation, but I wouldn’t recommend that in this type of market. You need properties that cash flow to mitigate risk and realize the biggest upsides in today’s market. 

Step 4: Build Consistent Deal Flow

Finding good deals in 2025 still takes effort. But the good news is, there’s less competition than in recent years—and more ways to find motivated sellers. This is the positive trade-off of investing in a correcting market. 

Start by building relationships with investor-friendly agents, joining local real estate investor groups, and mining for off-market opportunities. The easiest way to find deals? BiggerPockets Deal Finder evaluates cash flow potential for you in an instant and is a great way to get massive deal flow. 

The investors getting ahead this year are the ones who are proactively looking to find value. There will be a lot of junk and bad deals out there in this transitioning market, but if you look at enough leads, there will be opportunity. 

Step 5: Analyze and Negotiate With Discipline

Now that you’ve got potential deals coming in, it’s time to run the numbers—and this is where I see too many people lose the plot.

Use the BiggerPockets Rental Property Calculator or your own spreadsheet to run a conservative pro forma. Include all expenses: taxes, insurance, capital expenditures, repairs, property management—even if you plan to self-manage. Don’t assume perfect conditions. 

The key in 2025: Build in a margin of safety. Prices in many markets are softening, and I wouldn’t assume future appreciation in the next year or so. 

If the numbers work under conservative assumptions, move on to negotiation. In 2025, many sellers are motivated. Days on market are up. Price cuts are common. You can (and should) negotiate for discounts, seller credits, rate buy-downs, and even seller financing in some cases. Sellers want certainty—use that to your advantage.

Look for properties where you can buy at a discount to recent comps. For example, if you think prices could fall 2%-3% in your market (a reasonably conservative estimate for most metros), then only consider properties where you can negotiate to that level. 

And please, don’t count on a refinance! You need to assume current rates during your analysis, and if they happen to fall, that’s just a bonus. 

Step 6: Perform Real Due Diligence

Once your offer is accepted, slow down and do your due diligence. Get a full inspection and price out a scope of work if you’re doing a value-add project. Review utility bills, verify rent rolls, and confirm property tax history. This is another benefit of 2025: You can take your time, and don’t need to rush to close. 

Make sure you’re clear on title issues, zoning, insurance coverage, and local landlord laws. In this market, you can afford to walk away if something doesn’t check out. You’re not bidding against 20 offers, like in 2021. Use that leverage.

Step 7: Protect Yourself Against Uncertainty

This isn’t really another step, but just a reminder as you get close to closing on a deal in 2025, a few checklist items to remember: 

  • Buy for cash flow, not appreciation.
  • Keep six to 12 months of reserves per property.
  • Don’t overleverage.
  • Avoid over-renovation.
  • Invest in neighborhoods with long-term demand.
  • Stay flexible with exit strategies.

Final Thoughts

Rental properties remain one of the best long-term wealth-building tools available, but 2025 isn’t the year to wing it (no year is). The opportunities are there—I’m seeing them myself! 

But you need skill, strategy, and a willingness to adapt to take advantage. You shouldn’t be scared, but you do need to be smart and patient. If you play it right, this is the type of environment where big long-term profits can be made.

A Real Estate Conference Built Differently

October 5-7, 2025 | Caesars Palace, Las Vegas 
For three powerful days, engage with elite real estate investors actively building wealth now. No theory. No outdated advice. No empty promises—just proven tactics from investors closing deals today. Every speaker delivers actionable strategies you can implement immediately.



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Trump’s new tax bill aims to extend tax deductions that are set to expire, ensuring continued economic growth and stability for real estate investors. But how can these changes benefit your investment strategy? In this episode, Dave breaks down President Trump’s signature tax legislation (the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” or OBBBA) making its way through Congress, including what’s in it, what’s missing, and the implications for real estate investors.

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Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
It’s one big beautiful bill, or at least some people think so while others like Elon Musk are not so convinced today we’re talking about President Trump’s signature legislation making its way through Congress. We’ll talk about what’s in it, what’s missing arguments, both for and against the bill, and of course we’ll talk about what it means for real estate investors. Hey, what’s going on everyone? It’s Dave head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets, and today we’re getting into a very big important topic Trump’s big tax bill. I was actually thinking and considering waiting to make this episode until after the Senate actually passed a bill and we knew for sure what was going to be in it, but then of course, as you probably all know, Elon Musk publicly called it a disgusting abomination, which set off a very public feud, but I figured now is kind of time to break down what’s going on in this bill if it is causing so much controversy.
So in that effort, I read all 3000 pages of this monster bill. Obviously that is a joke. I definitely didn’t do that, but I did do a lot of research into this as much as a normal person can, and I’m going to do my best to break it all down for you today. First we’re going to talk just basics. We’ll talk about what made it into the belt, what was omitted. Next, we’ll talk about arguments both for and against the bill because as you know, our goal in the show is to give you a full well-rounded picture of what’s going on. And lastly, I’ll share my thoughts on what this all could mean for real estate investors. Let’s go. So first things first, what’s in the bill? And again, it’s called the one Big Beautiful Bill Act, O-B-B-B-A. And the primary goal, at least from what Republicans are saying in Trump himself has been saying the primary number one goal is to extend the tax cuts from 2017.
You might remember back to Trump’s first term in office, there was a pretty sweeping tax legislation that brought tax rates down. So just for example, the highest tax bracket before 2017 was nearly 40%. That came down to 37 and there was kind of changes all over the board in terms of the rate that you pay on taxes and the tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That was what it was called in 2017. It also increased income thresholds for each bracket. So meaning if it used to be the lowest bracket was up until $20,000, it was now the lowest bracket is up until $30,000. I’m making up those numbers just as an example, but basically it lowered taxes for everyone and so fast forward to today in 2025, if Congress did nothing right now, those tax cuts from 2017 would expire. The way that they were designed was only to work for about eight years, and so if Congress doesn’t act, they go back to where we were prior to the first Trump administration.
So it is not really surprising that the main thing in this new bill is that those tax cuts and those new tax reforms are going to be extended. That’s the goal Trump and the GOP want to accomplish, I think more than anything else, and it’s also worth mentioning in that 2017 Act that also introduced bonus depreciation, which is a big topic for real estate investors. We’re going to talk about that a little bit later, but that’s sort of where bonus depreciation came from in the first place. So the extension of those are in the bill, all those things. Some of the other things that are in the bill, not all of these are super relevant to real estate investors, but it’s worth knowing just if you live in the United States, there are no tax on tips in certain instances. I didn’t get into all these specific details of when and when not, but no tax on tips.
Part of that is in there no tax on overtime pay. There are border security funding increase. We have things called Trump accounts now where the government contributes a thousand dollars for children born between the years of 2024 and 2028, and there are modifications to the electric vehicle tax credit framework. Very notable. I think a lot of that might be behind what’s going on between Trump and Musk. For real estate investors, you’ll probably be very happy to know that 100% bonus depreciation for qualified properties will be in effect between January of 2025 and January of 2030. So that is a big boon for real estate investors. We’re also seeing for the very fortunate people who have estates worth more than $15 million, the new bill increases the estate tax exemption to $15 million per person up from $14 million for again anyone fortunate enough to be in that category.
One other thing in here is the salt deduction cap. So SALT stands for state and local taxes, and prior to 2017 the way it worked was you could deduct the taxes you pay for state taxes or local municipality taxes from your federal tax return. Then in 2017 they put a cap on that. They said you can deduct up to $10,000 of state and local taxes from your federal return. But everything above that, sorry, that is going away. This new bill is keeping the cap in place, but it’s increasing it to $30,000. So there was no cap in 2016. Then there was a cap in 2017 and now they are increasing that cap to $30,000 and that could be impactful because that will put more money in people’s pockets if they live in a high tax state. So a couple other things in the bill are cuts.
So not only are there tax cuts, but the bill tries to offset some of the loss in revenue from those by decreasing spending. And it’s actually 1.6 trillion in claim spending cuts. The biggest cut is to Medicaid, which is government program that helps provide healthcare to people under a certain income level. And the proposed cuts are 700 billion over 10 years. This would be the largest cuts in the program’s history. It would impose a strict 80 hours a month work requirement for adults without children. It would ban states from imposing new or higher taxes on healthcare providers, which is sort of how a lot of states fund their Medicaid programs. So that would be a very significant cut to that program. Another big cut would be somewhere close to 300 billion over 10 years to SNAP program, which stands for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which is basically food stamps.
Again, this would be the biggest cut in that program’s history. A couple other spending reductions would be the elimination of clean energy tax credits and there are some overhauls to the federal student loan program as well. So that’s actually what’s in the bill right now. But a lot of ideas have been thrown out about what would be included in this bill. So I think it’s worth mentioning some of the things that were at least floated and were not in this bill. First, there were no significant changes to 10 31 exchanges. There have been on and off discussions about that and for real estate investors, probably happy to hear that there are currently no planned changes to the 10 31 exchange. There are limited modification to depreciation recapture rules. I am not a CPA, this is not advice, but just in my basic understanding of this, I don’t think it’s going to be hugely impactful.
There are no big changes to opportunity zones. That’s one I personally was keeping an eye out for because there were opportunities. IT zones in the 2017 bill didn’t see anything in there about that and there are no provisions for affordable housing tax credits. We’ve had some guests, bipartisan guests on this show propose those things to help increase affordability in the housing market. Those are not included as well. All right, so now that we’ve covered what’s actually in the bill so far and some things that have been omitted that were being floated out there, it’s time to talk about arguments for and against the bill. But first we need to take a quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m here talking about Trump’s new tax bill. Before the break we talked about what’s in it and we also talked about some notable omissions from the tax bill. Let’s start breaking down what people are saying about it. We’ll first start with the supporters case. So people who are in favor of this bill are saying that it will help millions of small businesses in particular because they’ll get to keep more of their money. They’re also saying that it prevents the largest tax in American history. It’s sort of true, right? Because we do have this tax bill that is expiring and if it does expire, it would be a very large tax hike, but the bill was set to expire. But anyway, it would basically lock in and cement the tax cuts from 2017. And obviously if taxes went back up, that could have a short-term negative impact on spending in the economy.
And so supporters of the bill are saying that this will keep things at least close to what they have been over the last eight years. Believers in the bill also believe that tax cuts and specifically these tax cuts will stimulate economic growth saying that they expect it to create a massive surge in wage gain in higher incomes and in GDP increases. So basically these are a lot of the arguments you hear in general for lower taxes, right? Lower taxes puts more money in the pocket of everyday Americans, and in theory, those Americans will probably put it back into the economy, which will stimulate all those things like GDP growth, wage gain, higher incomes, all of that. Now for real estate, I do think there is going to be a lot of support for this bill. There’s a lot of things that are relatively good for the real estate investing market.
This may not impact you personally so much, but these salt deduction caps are actually super important. We saw when that first cap went into place that housing markets, particularly in high tax states did get impacted. And so I think a lot of agents and lenders and just basically everyone who wants to see transactions might be happy about this because housing markets that were sort of adversely impacted by that cap in the first place may see some thawing of the market when the cap increases, if the cap this hasn’t passed, if the cap goes up to 30,000 like is in the bill right now. On top of that, the real estate industry also benefits from more bonus depreciation. Anyone who does renovations, anyone who has done a cost segregation study and done bonus depreciation before can probably tell you it is very advantageous. So that could be really good for the real estate industry in general.
All right, now let’s switch over to arguments against the bill. The critics of this bill are saying that it is likely to add to the deficit. So I dug into this a little bit and I actually got a bunch of different estimates from all over the place. So these are non-partisan estimates. They are conservative GOP leaning estimates, left-leaning estimates, and the general consensus on pretty much all of them is that it will add two to $3 trillion to the national debt including interest over the next decade. So that is the primary argument against the bill is that there is already a very high national debt. We are running a deficit every single year in the United States. We have been for basically 25 years, but this bill is not doing anything to reverse that, and the tax cuts are likely to actually accelerate that. Other criticisms of the bill are that the tax cuts primarily benefit wealthy taxpayers and corporations and critics even within the GOP like Rand Paul have said that the bill maintains Biden spending levels.
So he’s basically saying that we’re not doing anything to curb spending. Now, it’s worth mentioning why people are concerned about the deficit. I think most people intuitively understand this, that taking on a lot of debt can be problematic. But basically the idea here is that if you have increased government spending and a bigger and portion of the budget, every single year goes to paying interest on that debt, that the government is going to be tempted over time to just print more money to service that debt, and that can lead to long-term inflation. And so that is sort of one of the economic concerns that I think some of the critics have, but also we’re seeing some pushback from Wall Street investors and bond investors on the same front about those long-term inflation concerns. So that’s one way that the long-term debt situation can be alleviated is by printing money.
The other thing is that it just may require future tax increases to balance the budget. So critics are saying that this could just be kicking the can down the road. Now, again, going back to the promoter of this, a lot of the proponents of this bill are saying that the economic growth that will come from cutting taxes could offset the decreased tax rate, right? Because even if you bring down the amount that we tax every dollar in the economy, if there’s just more money moving through the economy and GDP goes up, that could offset it and the government can still collect the same amount of revenue from every study. Reputable study I’ve seen that is not what is modeled out to be happening, but proponents of the bill do believe that could happen. So clearly this is still being debated very, very publicly as of this recording, and it’s kind of fascinating to watch.
You’ve got Elon Musk who was Trump’s biggest financial backer now publicly attacking his signature legislation. Most of the GOP has fallen behind Trump and is supporting the bill. It all makes good headlines and good television whether you’re on Musk or Trump’s aside in this debate, but we’re just going to have to watch and see what happens over the next couple of days or maybe the next couple of weeks and see what actually gets included in the final bill. We do have to take one more quick break, but on the other side I’m going to talk a little bit more specifically about the impact on real estate investors. We’ll be right back. Act welcome back to On the Market. I’m here reviewing the one big beautiful bill act, which is making its way through Congress. We’ve talked a little bit about what’s in the bill, what’s been omitted, what proponents and supporters are saying versus what critics are saying.
Now let’s talk about what’s in the bill for real estate investors. I mentioned some of those things earlier in the show about bonus depreciation, but let’s break it all down a little bit. The first and foremost, I think probably the biggest headline that most real estate investors and people in the industry are going to be excited about is bonus depreciation. Now, if you haven’t heard this term, depreciation is always something that’s been present in real estate. Basically, the idea is that every year you are able to deduct a certain amount of your property’s value. You actually calculate it by taking your assessed property value, dividing it by 27 and a half, and that is how much you are able to deduct from your tax returns every single year. And the idea is that the useful life of your asset, of your property declines over time and the government basically gives you a tax break to help maintain and keep up with the depreciation of your asset.
So that’s how it happens normally. Now, in 2017, this idea of bonus depreciation got introduced, which is a tax incentive that allows you to basically fast forward all this. Remember what I said is that in a given year, you could take one 27th of your depreciation, but now using bonus depreciation, you could actually front load and accelerate the tax benefit potentially all into the first year. Now, there are certain eligibility requirements, but what you should know about the tax bill is that this was getting phased out. So the bill in 2017 started that you were able to get 100% bonus depreciation through 2022. Then it was decreasing annually in 2023, I think it was 80%, then it went down to 60%, then down to 40%, and it was set to phase out completely in 2027 until legislation was passed. Now this new bill is proposing going back to 100% bonus depreciation.
So again, you can take all that depreciation upfront up until the year 2030. So for anyone who wants to take advantage of this tax strategy, this is obviously going to be beneficial to you going forward, at least for the next five years. The second really important tax provision in here for real estate investors is something called the 1 99 a pass through deduction. You might hear this called the Qualified Business Income Deduction. This was also established by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and is proposed to be extended. Basically what this does, it allows eligible owners of certain businesses like scorp or LLCs, which is super common in real estate investing. It allows them to deduct up 23% of their qualified business income, basically providing tax relief for these small businesses, which makes it sort of similar compared to the reduced corporate rates that were enacted for C Corp sort of bigger corporation styles in 2017.
So basically the idea was all these big corporations were getting a tax break in 2017. This was the way the tax bill offered some tax relief as well to smaller businesses, and that is proposed to be extended in the new bill as well. And I think for real estate investors, that’s important. Most people who have a legal entity to own their property or to manage their real estate portfolio do that through probably an LLC or a simple partnership kind of agreement. And so they will probably qualify. Not everyone will, but most people will qualify for these pass through deductions. The third big thing for real estate investors is the salt deduction change. I sort of hit on it a little bit earlier, but basically being able to deduct more of your state and local taxes is going to help individuals. It’s going to put more money in their pocket, right?
Because now let’s just say you live in a state where you actually have $30,000 in state and local taxes. I don’t know how many places that is realistic, but just let’s just say that you had $30,000 in state and local taxes. You can now deduct that from your federal returns. Again, and I’ll make the numbers easy. Let’s just say that your tax bracket is 33% and you paid $30,000. That means that $30,000 deduction is going to put $10,000 more in your hand. And so this could be a benefit for real estate investors for sure, or anyone who is in this situation, real estate investors included. But it also could just help spur some of these real estate markets that are expensive. And were hurt by this because imagine when this cap went into place in 2017 that took $10,000 out of people’s hands. In some cases, probably more, and I do think this probably disproportionately impacted very expensive markets in relatively high tax states.
So it’s not everyone being impacted by this, but for markets that were impacted the reversal, or at least the increase of the cap could help those markets. And so I imagine that could be a boon for real estate agents, property managers, loan officers in those kinds of markets as well. So those are some of the specific things, but I think in just a general sense, having these tax cuts go through could in theory just spur some demand, right? If people are experiencing significant tax savings that could free up more capital for investments, it could free up more capital that boosts the stock market, it could provide some footing for an economy that feels extremely uncertain right now. And I think personally, this is just my suspicion. I think a lot of markets and individuals are waiting to see what happens with some of these big economic questions.
It does not seem right now, like the tariff and trade policy situation is going to be sorted and will have clear direction there anytime in the next couple of months, but having some certainty if this tax bill does pass about what the rules are going to be for the next five years, that could help businesses and individuals start formulating plans, making decisions, and getting a little unstuck. That’s kind of how I feel the economy’s been for the last six months. Not necessarily good or bad, but just a little bit stuck as a lot of uncertainty. A lot of tax policy and trade policy is so uncertain, people aren’t making big decisions, and if this tax bill passes whatever the final details are, that might provide at least some grounding for people to make decisions based off of. Alright, so that’s what we got for you guys today.
Again, this is a bill that has not passed the Senate. It has gone through the House of Representatives and I’ve shared with you what we know so far. I do think something is eventually going to pass one way or another, whether there are significant changes or just minor changes, I am expecting that this bill will pass in the next couple of weeks, and we will certainly make sure to update you once we know for sure what’s in it, what’s not, and if there are any other implications for real estate investors. That’s all we got for you guys today. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. We’ll see you next time.

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When you’re managing rental properties, maintenance isn’t optional—it’s inevitable. But how you handle it can mean the difference between protecting your investment and constantly putting out fires. If you’re new to landlording, there are two basic approaches to maintenance: preventative and reactive.

Spoiler alert: One of them saves you more time, money, and stress.

What Is Preventative Maintenance?

Preventative maintenance means staying ahead of problems before they turn into costly repairs. It’s the seasonal and recurring tasks you schedule on a calendar—like cleaning gutters in the spring, changing air filters every few months, or inspecting smoke detectors annually.

These aren’t just nice-to-haves—they’re the foundation of a healthy, functioning property. When you follow a preventative maintenance schedule, you catch issues early, extend the life of your systems, and avoid those dreaded emergency calls at 2 a.m.

Take, for example, the Recurring & Seasonal Maintenance Tracker we use. It outlines everything from when to reseal the driveway (every two years in September) to when to remind tenants to replace their air filters (annually in May). This kind of planning creates a rhythm to property management that makes it more predictable—and less expensive.

What Is Reactive Maintenance—And Why Can It Be So Costly?

Reactive maintenance is exactly what it sounds like: waiting until something breaks before you fix it. For rookie landlords, it might seem like a way to save money upfront. After all, why spend money on maintenance when nothing’s wrongyet?

But here’s the catch: When you wait for problems to surface, you’re almost always paying more—in time, money, and tenant satisfaction.

Let’s say you skip gutter cleaning in the spring. It might not seem like a big deal, until a fall storm rolls in and clogged gutters lead to water backing up into the eaves, causing roof rot or interior leaks. What could have been a $150 seasonal service just became a $2,000 repair job—and possibly a mold remediation situation.

Or take HVAC filters. Skipping regular replacements might save you $20 this month, but it puts extra strain on the system. That can lead to frozen coils, overheating, or even a full system breakdown that costs thousands to fix or replace—likely in the middle of summer, when your tenants need it most.

Reactive maintenance also tends to come with higher stress. Emergency repairs are rarely convenient. You may find yourself scrambling to find a plumber over a holiday weekend, paying rush fees, or dealing with multiple vendors just to get the job done quickly.

Plus, this approach can harm your reputation. Tenants expect prompt, professional responses to issues. If problems are consistently ignored until they become urgent, tenants may not renew their lease—or worse, leave bad reviews.

In short, reactive maintenance may feel like saving money in the moment, but it often leads to:

  • Higher repair and labor costs
  • Unplanned downtime
  • Frustrated tenants
  • More property damage
  • Shorter lifespan of major systems and appliances

Why Preventative Maintenance Wins (Almost) Every Time

While you’ll never eliminate all surprises in property management, you can significantly reduce them with a preventative mindset. Here’s why it’s worth building into your process:

  • Lower repair costs: Early fixes are cheaper than full replacements.
  • Happier tenants: Proactive care builds trust and keeps your tenants comfortable.
  • Longer asset life: Systems like HVAC and roofs last longer when maintained regularly.
  • Fewer emergencies: You’re not scrambling when something major goes wrong.
  • More organized operations: You follow a schedule, rather than reacting in chaos.

Start with a Maintenance Tracker

If you’re just getting started, use a simple spreadsheet like the one we’ve built to map out seasonal and recurring tasks. For example:

  • Clean gutters: Every spring (April)
  • Seal driveways: Every two years (September)
  • Check fire extinguishers: Every two years (June)
  • Replace A/C filters: Annually (May)

You can build this into your calendar, assign tasks to vendors, and add notes like reminders to notify tenants in advance. Over time, this tracker becomes one of your most valuable property management tools. 

Managing maintenance across multiple properties—or even just one—can quickly get overwhelming if you’re relying on memory, sticky notes, or scattered emails. That’s where property management software like RentRedi becomes a game changer. RentRedi makes it easy to track, manage, and respond to maintenance requests all in one place. Tenants can submit repair issues directly through the app, including photos and detailed notes, so you know exactly what’s wrong before stepping foot on the property. You can even assign tasks to specific vendors, monitor the status of each job, and keep a digital record of completed work. Automated notifications keep everyone informed about repair statuses or upcoming inspections. 

Why You Need to Budget for Repairs and Capital Improvements

Even with the best preventative maintenance plan, repairs are going to happen—and some of them will be expensive. That’s why every landlord, rookie or experienced, should have reserves set aside specifically for maintenance and capital improvements.

Think of it like this: Maintenance isn’t an “if,” it’s a “when.” Water heaters wear out. Roofs age. Appliances break. And when they do, you don’t want to be scrambling to cover a $2,000 repair or a $5,000 HVAC replacement. Having dedicated funds set aside means you can act quickly without disrupting your personal finances or cash flow from other properties.

A common rule of thumb is to set aside 1% to 3% of the property value annually for maintenance and capital expenses. Another approach is to base your reserves on monthly rent—setting aside 10% to 15% of the rent each month into a dedicated repair fund. The exact number may vary, depending on the age of your property and local costs, but the goal is the same: Be prepared.

Capital improvements (like new windows, major system upgrades, or structural work) aren’t just expensive—they’re necessary for maintaining property value and tenant satisfaction. Budgeting for them helps you make smart, timely upgrades instead of reactive, last-minute replacements. Using tools like RentRedi, you can track past maintenance expenses and start to estimate future needs. That data gives you a clearer picture of what your reserve should look like, so you’re not caught off guard.

Final Thoughts

Preventative maintenance isn’t just about saving money—it’s about protecting your time, property, and peace of mind. As a rookie landlord, the sooner you shift from reactive to proactive, the smoother your business will run.

Your future self (and your tenants) will thank you.



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Trump has signaled that changes are on the way for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that guarantee home loans in order to increase access to homeownership. Once private companies, the GSEs were placed under conservatorship to prevent their collapse and stabilize the housing market during the financial crisis. That was intended to be a temporary solution, and the Trump administration is now exploring options for the future of Fannie and Freddie. 

Shares of Fannie Mae soared after President Trump took office, with investors betting the administration would continue to pursue the end of conservatorship for the GSEs. The move would result in a windfall for shareholders. But Trump’s comments on Truth Social last week have led to uncertainty over the administration’s goals for the two government-sponsored enterprises, causing Fannie Mae stock to decline significantly over the last several days. 

“I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the U.S. Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as president,” Trump announced

The details remain a mystery. William Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said the government is “studying all different options.” The possible paths for the two companies, which together guarantee about half the country’s outstanding mortgage debt, would result in different levels of government control and housing market outcomes, and none are without challenges and economic risk. 

What Do Trump’s Comments Actually Mean?

The administration’s goals remain unclear. A 2019 Housing Reform Plan aimed at ending conservatorship failed during Trump’s first term, and investors initially responded to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social with enthusiasm, assuming the administration would pick up where it left off. 

But Pulte’s comments to media outlets suggest a different plan. “The president has not said anything that he wants to end conservatorship. We’re studying actually potentially keeping it in conservatorship and taking it public,” he told CNBC. 

It’s reasonable to expect some sort of reform, but a change to the status quo could take on many forms.

Public offering while maintaining conservatorship

Pulte’s comments suggest a plan to retain government control of the GSEs while using them to generate revenue. That would reflect the administration’s concerns about high mortgage rates and housing affordability. With an implied government guarantee, investors might continue to see GSE securities as low-risk investments, which would keep mortgage rates stable or even lower mortgage rates if Fannie and Freddie were able to raise more capital. 

But that seems unlikely to work, according to JPMorgan strategists. “If the goal is to sell off the Treasury stake, potentially raising hundreds of billions of dollars to pay down the U.S. debt, we’d think that private investors would want the government’s involvement to be somewhat lighter than today,” they wrote. And maintaining conservatorship may not allow for the innovation, efficiency improvements, freedom from political influence, or reduced moral hazard that are central benefits in most arguments for reforming the GSEs. 

And if the administration took action to scale back government involvement in the mortgage market to incentivize investors, even white maintaining conservatorship, the GSEs would either need to raise private capital to ensure liquidity in the face of reduced government support,  charge higher fees to account for the increased risk, or purchase fewer mortgages. Any of those changes could result in higher mortgage rates—the very problem the administration hopes to prevent by retaining conservatorship. 

Reform-recap-release

In order to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship, the GSEs would need to be sufficiently capitalized, and the Treasury would need to reduce its ownership interest. This process would be fraught with complex problems. 

Current regulatory requirements dictate that Fannie and Freddie would each need an estimated $350 billion to qualify for exit. That would take 10 years for GSEs to acquire, according to estimates from NYU Furman Center. The FHFA would need to amend the requirement to accomplish an exit during Trump’s term. 

Like JPMorgan strategists, Donald H. Layton, former CEO of Freddie Mac and senior visiting fellow at NYU Furman Center, wrote that it wouldn’t be possible for the GSEs to raise capital while under conservatorship. And because the Treasury would need to sell its shares over time to avoid price declines, exit from conservatorship would be a drawn-out process. Some experts believe that transferring holdings to a sovereign wealth fund might help transition to privatization with less risk. 

Any perceived reduction in government guarantees or uncertainty about the future of Fannie and Freddie would also trigger investors to demand higher returns on GSE securities, which would impact mortgage rates. 

Receivership and liquidation

A more extreme reform would involve placing the GSEs into receivership under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act, with the goal of liquidating the GSEs’ assets and revoking their charters. This would lead to an entirely private mortgage market without implicit government guarantees. This option receives support from some right-leaning think tanks like the Cato Institute, but it’s unlikely the administration will pursue receivership based on Trump’s comments. 

Legislative reform of the housing system

The Trump administration could also consider writing new legislation that would change how the government regulates the secondary mortgage market. A legislative process would expand the options for reform—for example, the government could collect fees from the privatized companies and offer an explicit guarantee in return. That might raise mortgage rates, but it would also bring in revenue. 

However, past attempts at legislative reform have failed. Political divisions and multiple stakeholder groups make the process difficult, and there’s a risk of market volatility during the transition to a new legislative model. 

Implications of Privatization

“A privatized Fannie or Freddie could mean more innovation in mortgage finance,” according to Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in an article. “But it would also mean higher mortgage rates for home shoppers.” It could have other implications as well. 

Access to credit

Under conservatorship, the government mandates that the GSEs achieve certain affordable housing goals, and encourages Fannie and Freddie to use cross-subsidization to meet these obligations. That means borrowers with perfect credit pay slightly higher rates and fees to subsidize borrowers with low incomes and less-than-perfect credit, according to the GSE fee structure. 

There is debate about the ethics of this practice, but it allows access to homeownership for more Americans. Privatization could lead to the end of cross-subsidization, which would reduce access to credit and increase mortgage rates for higher-risk borrowers. Affordable housing mandates also encourage lenders to issue loans in minority communities. Without these goals, we might see stricter credit and down payment requirements. 

Competition in the mortgage market

Some experts believe that privatization could increase market competition and lead to deregulation in the long term, which could benefit homebuyers, but others are concerned about the impact on small lenders, especially in rural and minority communities. FHFA rules require the GSEs to use consistent pricing regardless of loan volume. That prevents large lenders from passing volume discounts on to homeowners, which would push small lenders that need to charge higher rates from the market. The end of conservatorship could mean the end of fair pricing, causing lending to dry up in certain communities. 

Shareholder returns

Privatizing the GSEs would be a win for shareholders. No longer subject to affordable housing obligations, Fannie and Freddie would be free to focus on increasing profits. Since the GSEs would be accountable to shareholders and subject to reporting requirements, investor confidence in their management may grow. 

Bill Ackman, a Trump ally whose hedge fund is the largest private holder of shares in Fannie Mae, is one of the more vocal supporters of ending conservatorship, and would stand to gain significant wealth from privatization. But the impact of profit-driven GSEs on the economy and homebuyers is more nuanced. 

The GSEs might, for example, innovate their underwriting practices or offer new mortgage products in an effort to raise capital, which could improve access to credit, even though the companies wouldn’t be subject to FHFA requirements. But they might also invest in high-risk, high-reward mortgage products like subprime loans to increase profits, which could threaten the stability of the financial system in the event of a downturn—the situation that led to conservatorship in the first place. A strong regulatory framework post-conservatorship could help prevent a repeat of the financial crisis, however. 

The Fundamental Question of the Role of Government

Aside from the practical considerations of reforming Fannie and Freddie, differences in political ideology regarding the role of government in the economy are powerful drivers in the debate over the future of the GSEs. To understand where both sides are coming from, it’s helpful to know the historical context of the argument, particularly the rise of conservatism in the decades before the financial crisis. 

In the 1980s, many Americans were fed up with expensive liberal policies, which conservatives blamed for the stagflation of the 1970s, and the U.S. was primed for a shift toward free-market economics. Even the Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker, who served from 1979 through 1987, shifted its focus toward monetarism. An initial recession quickly gave way to a period of economic growth. 

In the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, decades of history seemed to suggest the superiority of limiting government intervention in the financial system. The Fed allowed risky lending practices to run amok in part because Alan Greenspan, chair of the Fed from 1987 to 2006, strongly believed in the self-regulated free market, and his faith had not yet been tested. 

“I was shocked, because I had been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well,” Greenspan told Congress of his economic ideology in 2008. 

Greenspan’s views were influenced by the work of Adam Smith and Milton Friedman, but he failed to integrate the guidance of those thinkers with regard to the financial sector. Both Smith and Friedman supported government regulation in banking. History shows that an unregulated mortgage market does increase economic prosperity—until the market collapses. 

There is still debate over the primary cause of the financial crisis. Some argue that affordable housing mandates pressured the GSEs to purchase subprime loans, and that government policy played a greater role in the financial crisis than insufficient regulation or private risk-taking. That would suggest that a release from conservatorship should be a priority for the Trump administration to prevent instability in the mortgage market. 

But research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis suggests affordable housing goals had no impact on subprime mortgage originations or purchasing of subprime securities by Fannie and Freddie. Analysts on this side of the debate argue that a lack of regulatory oversight, combined with increased risk-taking due to the government’s backing, allowed the GSEs to fail. If that’s the case, the Trump administration should avoid privatization or carefully structure any reform within a regulatory framework that prevents instability in the mortgage market. 

Proponents of privatization cite the risk to taxpayers inherent in government guarantees, but the precedent of a government bailout complicates their removal in the eyes of market participants, according to Bank of England economists. Authorities can say they’ll no longer interfere with the mortgage market, but the statement will be met with doubt. “…The rational response by market participants is to double their bets. This adds to the cost of future crises. And the larger these costs, the lower the credibility of ‘never again’ announcements. This is a doom loop,” wrote the economists in 2009. 

Even if an entirely privatized system without government guarantee were possible, would it be advisable? Some analysts look to other countries for evidence that government guarantees aren’t necessary for optimal market performance. But the argument that European governments are less involved in mortgage markets is false—while they may not do so for securitization, European governments implicitly or explicitly guarantee mortgage loans in other ways. We don’t have a template for a successful financial system that doesn’t rely on government backing. 

Trump’s comments acknowledge the importance of implicit government guarantees, which support not only stable mortgage rates in the short term, but also the stability of the financial system in the long term. While the administration is exploring all options, it’s likely the reform will maintain government guarantees to some degree. 

How Would Reform Impact Real Estate Investors?

Reforming the GSEs would impact real estate investors in several ways, both positive and negative.

  • Mortgage rates: Privatization, or even reduced government regulation inside a conservatorship, may result in higher mortgage rates, especially for investment properties. However, it’s possible that borrowers with high incomes and perfect credit could see rates fall with the end of cross-subsidization.
  • Underwriting standards: A private mortgage market would likely mean more stringent credit and income requirements and larger down payment requirements, especially for multifamily loans. This could make it more difficult for investors to rapidly grow their portfolios
  • Lending options: Ending conservatorship could allow nontraditional lending businesses to flourish. Private lenders might develop customized mortgage products designed to serve the needs of real estate investors, which may provide more flexibility, albeit at a higher cost. 

Final Thoughts

At this stage in the Trump administration’s plan, the future of Fannie and Freddie remains uncertain. The outcome of any reform relies heavily on how the transition is structured and the regulatory framework left in place for the GSEs going forward, so it’s tough to champion any one idea without a detailed plan. But for better or for worse, a change to the status quo is likely to impact financing options for real estate investors.



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