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Many rookies assume it’s easier to buy a rental property in their own market, but today’s guest proved you don’t need to by taking down his first deal in another area of the country, sight unseen. And good thing he did, because it not only pocketed him $250,000 but also gave him the confidence to leave his W2 job, move to another country, and go all in on real estate investing!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Stephen Keighery was living in one of the most unaffordable cities in Australia when he decided to try his hand in another market. Then, after a few home-run deals, Stephen packed up and moved across the world to New Orleans, where he’s since built his own real estate business. By pairing wholesaling and the BRRRR method (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat), he earns active income while rapidly scaling his portfolio!

Stephen’s secret? He knows his strengths and uses them to his advantage—leveraging his marketing and sales background to grow his network and build rapport with potential sellers. In this episode, he’ll show you how to dig into the data and identify up-and-coming markets, hunt down off-market properties, and close!

Ashley:
Today’s guest proves you don’t need to live near your investment to make serious money in real estate. In fact, his very first deal was site unseen and it turned into a $250,000 profit.

Tony:
And here’s what’s even crazier. He didn’t just luck out. He used data strategy and a strong team to make that deal work. So if you’ve ever said, man, I’d invest. If I could just find the right market, then this episode is for you. Steve Curie joins us today to share how he’s researched the right market, built a local team from scratch and avoided the classic rookie pitfalls of long distance investing.

Ashley:
This is the Real Estate Rookie podcast. And I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony j Robinson. And with that, let’s give a big warm welcome to Steve. Steve, thanks for joining us today, brother.

Stephen:
Thanks so much. I’m really excited to be on the program.

Ashley:
Steve, take us back to that very first deal. What gave you the confidence to get started?

Stephen:
I mean, it took a lot of learning. I was really into investing. I wanted to invest and I got around people that were investing. I joined a mentorship and I just decided I wanted to do it. But then I started to look at data. So I lived in Australia, I was in Sydney. It’s the second least affordable city in the world based on income to price. So it was really expensive and not a good market to invest in. So I realized that I needed to find a better market, so I really learned how to do that, and I just searched for the best market in Australia. That was my goal. I didn’t have a specific criteria of being local or just what’s the best market. And I said about doing that.

Ashley:
Now you did your first deal sight unseen. So explain that process of getting comfortable with being able to buy your first property without even seeing it.

Stephen:
You know what, I actually really think that I saw the property better than most people do. I had a lot of friends that were in real estate and they thought I was crazy buying sight unseen because they’re like, how do you know the local cafes and the hotspots? And they really had this thought that you need to see of your eyes, but not having my eyes. I went really deep on the data. So I built a spreadsheet of data. I narrowed down to properties, sorry, areas that had a high enough yield, and I started to look at what’s the median income, what’s the change in median income? What are the demographics? Do our families live here? Is the median income moving? And when I started to zone in those areas, I looked at infrastructure in the areas and is there solid infrastructure? So I really had a very solid idea of why I was investing in that market.
And it wasn’t based on any gut, not seeing it also wasn’t that big a deal. So when I decided the area I wanted to invest in, I started interviewing local property managers and I would speak to the property managers to firstly figure out who I want to use, but as well, I was asking them, where are people buying? Where do I need to avoid? What sort bare bath counts do I need in this area? So I got a really clear understanding of what renters were looking for. And when I negotiated on deals, I started just based on numbers. I’d see a deal that I thought would meet my criteria, I would negotiate on the price, and if they were open to that price, I would send my property manager to go do an inspection. They were impartial. They would tell me the truth. They’re like, will you be able to rent this? Are you going to have any issues? What’s the market rent? Is there a cemetery across the road? There’s something wrong with the property? And they would give me the real answers. And then when I went under contract, I would obviously get a professional property inspection done. So I had a full inspection report. I had clear visibility on the property. So for me, I felt confident in the area. I felt comfortable on the property, I felt comfortable with the condition and I was good to go and I never had to see it.

Tony:
Steve, everything you just laid out I think makes a ton of sense logically, but oftentimes Ricky investors don’t make decisions simply based off of logic. There’s often a lot of emotion involved in that decision making process as well. And while I think we would all agree what you said was very rational for people who were doing this for the first time, I think there’s still fear around the unknown of I haven’t been there before, I don’t know it. I know my own backyard. And I guess what I’m trying to understand is aside from the rational piece, did you have any of that fear? And if so, how did you overcome that to say, Hey, we’re still going to do this because the data makes sense?

Stephen:
I mean, I absolutely had the fear for sure. It was a big investment, but I just did it anyway. And I guess I probably am rational, so I probably rationalized the fear, but I was prepared to make a mistake. To me, I wanted to invest, I wanted to build a better future, so I was prepared to make some mistakes. I’d done a lot of research, so I really felt like I’d minimized the mistakes that I could get. But of course I may get some, and I just did it anyway, knowing that if I made mistakes, I’d learn from them and I’d be able to apply that to future investments.

Tony:
Yeah. Steve, three things I want to highlight really quickly. Number one, I love the concept of I just did it anyway. I’ve got three kids. My oldest is a teenager right now, and his whole life growing up, I always shared with him that bravery isn’t the absence of fear. It’s doing it in spite of your fear despite your fear. And I think that’s exactly what you laid out here. Hey, I do feel a little nervous about this, but the truth is, if we only do things that keep us comfortable and we never do anything that scares us a little bit, there is a good chance we’re not going to achieve a whole heck of a lot in life either. So we’ve got to be able to find that tipping point of taking that step towards that fear when we know that it’s in our best interest.
And the second thing that you said was you were prepared to make some mistakes. And I think that is the absolute correct mindset that investors need to have that the purpose of the first deal is not to make you a millionaire. The purpose of the first deal is not to retire you from your day job. The purpose of the first deal is to give you proof of concept, is to give you confidence that you can go out there and do your second deal. And I think that when we can take off some of the monetary pressure around this first deal has to be a home run, it then allows us to do what you did where you can step into that fear because the risk is a little bit lower.

Ashley:
Steve, when you decided to invest out of state, you had that foundation of knowing people in that market, but what were some of the data and the metrics that you looked like to actually analyze the market on paper?

Stephen:
So I used a lot of census data. So Australia has pretty good data like that. So I started with, we have realestate.com, which is like a Zillow realtor. So I pulled that to figure out the yields, like the rental returns, and that eliminated a lot of areas based on the yields. I made the list smaller. But then with the census data, I really pulled out the median incomes, the income quartiles, like what quartile are they earning incoming. But I went back a few years. So what I was actually looking for was the change. I wasn’t looking for the best market, I was looking for the market that was changing. I would also look at the growth that the areas had had. What I did probably different to what most rookies would do was I wasn’t looking for the areas that had grown a lot because my belief was when they’ve grown a lot, you’ve sort of missed that.
And I was looking for growth. So I was looking for areas that had really good fundamentals so that it showed to me the incomes are growing, the population’s growing, there’s infrastructure. It looked good but hasn’t grown significantly. And then once I limited that down, I looked in the areas around them. So I found some pockets where it looked good on paper, it hadn’t really grown, but the areas around it had actually grown nicely. So to me that was a clear buy signal that the market was coming up in that area. And that was really a lot of the data I pulled.

Ashley:
Did you have any experience in the past like pulling data or metrics or analytics? What has been your career up to this point that did you have any advantage?

Stephen:
I mean, maybe I’m a marketer, so I had a tech business, so I ran marketing and sales. So I was sort of comfortable looking at data and analyzing things from a marketing perspective. So I might’ve had that advantage. I had a lot of data scientists and people around me. I wasn’t that person, but I’ve seen how they operate. So that might’ve helped. But to be honest, I don’t think I needed that. I did join a group of people that were doing the same thing. So in Australia there’s this lady, Margaret Lomas, she was a good teacher there, one of the biggest ones in Australia, and she had a group of, so we joined and we all were looking at our own markets and discussing. So that gave us a bit of confidence too. So I mean, I am pretty comfortable with data, but I don’t think you need to be. I think to the rookies listening, I think that it’s not rocket scientists and you can do it.

Ashley:
And I think too, the fact that you had a marketing background, we get all the time people saying, I don’t have a job that can help me in real estate. I don’t have any kind of advantage or opportunity, but you’re marketing your property, you’re marketing yourself to find leads to buy properties.

Tony:
And Steve, I just want to get a sense because it wasn’t in your backyard and obviously our show is a big place. How far was this property from where you were living? Was it a two hour drive? Was it six hour flight? Just ballpark? How far away was it?

Stephen:
Yeah, it’d be pretty significant. I mean, it’d be a full days of travel, a couple hour flight. It’s a different stay in Queensland. I lived in Sydney, new South Wales. It’s a whole different state. It was a far away away. And by the way, I sold it about two years ago. I’d never seen it still. I made a lot of money on it. I managed it. I’ve never seen it in my life.

Ashley:
We’re going to take a short break, but when we come back, Steve actually started to make some investments in the us So we’re going to start and touch on that when we could be right back. Okay. Welcome back. We are here with Steve who started out investing in Australia. So Steve, what made you pivot to investing in the us?

Stephen:
Well, I did move here. So I’d bought six rentals in Australia and I moved to New Orleans, came here for a vacation and fell in love and decided to stay here. So I had left my old business in Australia, and I wanted to figure out what I wanted to do next, and I did want to do more real estate. I’d sort of got in the bag. I’ve loved it. So I looked around and decided that I wanted to do real estate as a professional. What I think I did in Australia was I was definitely a rookie. I didn’t have any advantage. I was retail investing and looking for where the market was growing, and I decided I moved here. I’m going to actually become an expert in my market and become a professional investor and focus more on buying with making money on the buy as opposed to relying on the market to make that money.

Tony:
Steve, so you come from an entirely different country with I’m assuming no contacts, no resources. The community that you’re a part of in Australia is no longer here with you in the States. So what do you do first to start building this actual business that you’re looking to build?

Stephen:
The first step was I went to the local Riyadh. We had Noria here, new Orleans Real Estate Investors Association. So I went to that to actually start to say, what’s going on in this market? What’s happening? I started to meet some investors and that sort of got my head around it. So that was really my start. I knew nobody, my whole family’s from Australia. The first person we met here was our Airbnb. We had an Airbnb when we first came, so literally zero network. So starting with Arres and meetups was how I started to build that network. And through Noria, I did a little, I actually bought a deal off a wholesaler to get my visa to move into Australia. I needed to invest in a property. So I bought a dealer for wholesaler, and I wanted to learn what wholesalers did because I didn’t know what that was.
I don’t think we had them in Australia or I didn’t know about them if they existed. So I wanted to learn what a wholesaler did, and I did a course through the Real Estate Investors Association on wholesaling. And when I learned what wholesaling was, I realized that I ran sales and marketing for my company. And I’m like, wow. And we were a two-sided marketplace, and wholesaling to me was a two-sided marketplace with sellers and buyers and marketing. I’m like, that’s my skillset. So I realized that I could do wholesaling in this market to buy my own deals and to really add value in a way I wasn’t doing in Australia.

Tony:
Steve, I want to dig a little bit deeper into your transition to wholesaling, but before we even get there, you glossed over, I think something that a lot of Ricky struggle with. You casually said, I went to the Rea, met this person, made some connections, but as someone who’s brand new to a country, no connections, no friends, you walk into that R, there’s, I don’t know, 50, a hundred people, however big the R is, who do you walk up to first? What are you saying to people? How are you breaking the ice to actually start building some of these connections?

Stephen:
I mean, the thing you’ll find about real estate people is they’re really friendly. If you go to those RIAs, these people want to help you. So I found, I just was going up to people and saying, what do you do? How does that work? I was just being really curious about what they were doing, and I found that most of these people wanted to tell you. And when they found out you’re new to the country, that you’re new to investing, they want to help you.

Ashley:
I mean, you got the Australian accent who’s not going to be drawn to a guy with an Australian accent.

Stephen:
The AIE accent helped that. A accent helped. It’s funny because it was a disadvantage being Australian for trying to deal with sellers. I was like, I obviously wasn’t from here. I would mess up street names, but I did become, people started calling me Aussie Steve. So I realized that it was a disadvantage, but it’s also an advantage. So I definitely played up the Australian side, might’ve even enhanced my accent, slightly dropped a few more gade, a few more gades than I normally would’ve.

Tony:
So you say, Hey, I’m learning about this thing called wholesaling, which wasn’t a thing where you were coming from in Australia, but there was this matching of skills and abilities. And I think for all of our Ricky’s that are listening, even if you’re not maybe in the exact same position as Steve, the lesson to be learned here is that Steve saw an opportunity within real estate investing that was a natural fit to his current skills and abilities, like what he already knew and what he was already good at. And I think all of us should be doing that self-assessment to see or to ask ourselves what strategy aligns best with what I’m actually already good at. I joke me and Ashley joke all the time that she would make a terrible wholesaler because she hates talking to people and knocking on doors and cold calling people. So you got to know where your strengths and your abilities lie. So Steve, once you found out about wholesaling, and I guess for maybe folks that aren’t familiar with that phrase, just define it for us first. What does it actually mean to wholesale? And then once you decided if that was the right strategy for you, how did you actually get started?

Stephen:
So wholesaling is really flipping a contract as opposed to flipping a house. So if you are marketing for the stress sellers, you’ll negotiate a price based on what someone will pay for it. You get the contract to purchase that property, but instead of actually buying the property, you assign your rights to purchase that property to another investor and you can assign them at a higher amount, and therefore you earn that spread. So it’s really good for if you’re good at marketing and good at talking to sellers, that’s how you can find deals. And on the other side, people like Ashley, I’m guessing then people that they want deals they want to renovate, but they’re not good at the marketing and sales. So you really form that function for people. Yeah.

Ashley:
Steve, when you started doing this, was it just through the meetups that you started to build your buyer’s list and your lead list? How did you actually find buyers that would want to buy the properties that you found?

Stephen:
Yeah, I mean the meetups were a big part of it. And then through the meetups going further, I went through BiggerPockets. I made connections through BiggerPockets, the Facebook groups, many ways. I made friends with other wholesalers who had lists as well. So it can be quite good when you’re getting your first deals, you can joint venture with them so they can actually help you understand the right numbers and they can help you move that deal. So it is a combination of all of those things.

Tony:
Steve, just from what you shared so far, you seem like someone who’s really nailed the process of building your network, and I think Ash and I both have benefited tremendously from the people that are in our network. For all the rookies that are listening, what is your advice to be come good at networking? And I don’t want it to sound transactional, like, Hey, I’m just networking for the sake of my own personal benefit. But I do think that building a network can be a win-win situation for both parties. So if you were to give me a 32nd crash course on how to effectively network, because you talked about, Hey, I found the first property that I bought, found out about wholesaling. I built my list all through the connections that you made. That is a skillset. So 32nd crash course, how can someone replicate what you’ve done in building your network?

Stephen:
I mean, I think just add value and be curious, asking questions, just really finding what people do and just help where you can. Definitely don’t be transactional. Be the opposite of transactional. I really read the book when I came here, the Go-Giver, I dunno if you’ve read that book, but it’s about just adding value. If you add value into the universe, it just comes back to you. It’s not like I’ll help you because I’m happy to help you, not because you need something in return, but if you do that often enough things come back in return and it may not be from the person you helped. So I really, and I think because I came here not knowing anyone, I had to, I had no network. I wasn’t much of a networker in Australia. It’s not a natural thing. That wasn’t my skill. But because I knew no one, I was trying to make friends, I was trying to find out. So my advice is just to help if you can offer to help them and do something without asking for anything in return, and just ask them questions, go deeper and understand what they’re doing, why they’re doing it, and they’re generally happy to answer that.

Ashley:
Now in this market, new Orleans, tell us what your buy box looked like. What kind of deals were you going after?

Stephen:
So I mean, for me personally, I bought a lot of birds. I have my wholesaler view and then I have the deals I buy myself. The advantage of being a wholesaler is that I have a very wide net. I can pretty much close any deal. Now in south Louisiana, I can pretty much close any deal if it’s price, right? And price, when I first started was like 70% of the after repair value minus repairs was what a buyer would buy a deal for. So if I could get a contract cheaper than that, I had a big enough buy, at least I could move any deal. The market softened and it’s more like 65%. And in some parts of New Orleans particularly, it’s 60% of the RV. So that’s my broad buy box. So I’m able to market, but the ones that I like, so again, my skill is sales and marketing, not renovating. So the deals that I liked were the ones that were priced right like that, but didn’t require a big rehab. I don’t want to fix the foundation. I don’t want to pull permits. So when I found deals that were priced but had a renovation I could handle, I bought those myself and did the bur and anything else I wholesale to my network.

Tony:
Steve, I want go back to the whole 70% to 60% of rv. Just give us an example of what the math like that would actually look like. Say the home, the rv, the after repair value is a hundred K. Back us into the numbers you would need for that to be a good wholesale deal.

Stephen:
So if the after repair value is going to be a hundred K, the buyers want to buy it at 70% of that value minus repairs. So 70% of a hundred K would be 70 K. And let’s say there’s a 20 K rehab budget, so they’re going to want to buy it for 70 k, minus 20 would be 50 K. So 50 K is going to be the price that the buyer’s going to want to buy it for. And if I’m wholesaling, I’m going to want to make an assignment fee. So if I get the contract for 50 K, I’m not going to make any money, so I’m going to want to get it for 40 5K or 40 K or whatever I can negotiate. I’m going to try and negotiate something a bit lower so that I can make a spread in that

Tony:
One follow-up question to that. If I’m new to wholesaling, there are people in our audience who I think are interested in that as a strategy, but I think where a lot of new aspiring wholesalers and just real estate investors in general struggle is estimating those rehab costs. So for you, Steve, when you came to New Orleans, again, new city, new country, how did you go about understanding what those rehab costs were going to potentially be?

Stephen:
I’m catching a theme for myself before I even answer, because it was asking people, it was the network and it was the res I got with the buyers and I asked them their rehab costs. I started to learn what they were using. And that’s really what does it cost for a kitchen? What does it cost for a roof? My tip though is there’s a difference between being a wholesaler and a rehabber. When you’re a rehabber, you’re going to have a very itemized, very specific budget based on exactly what you’re going to do. Now, when you’re a wholesaler, all the buyers are going to do different things. So you’re not trying to estimate to the dollar because one person’s going to do high and one person’s going to do low end. You need to give enough of a budget. So if it needs a kitchen renovation, you need to make sure there’s just some money for a kitchen renovation.
So what I tend to do is we have a formula that’s like, I think it’s like seven and a half percent of the a RB is stuff just straight away. That’s stuff. And then we just add up big items. So it needs a roof. We have a number for a roof, we have a number for kitchen, we have a number for a bathroom, we have a number for ac. So we just do the big ticket items, but we don’t count just small little items, trim PowerPoints. We don’t count any of that. But just asking around, I got a fair enough number and I realized that most of the time it worked for my buyers.

Ashley:
Now Steve, how much money did you have to invest into this wholesaling business? Are you sending out mailers? Do you have any kind of software that you are using that you are paying for? We’ve seen it on both ends of the spectrum where somebody is handwriting letters, doing all their free research off of G has a mapping websites, and then we’ve seen the other extreme where they’re spending $20,000 a month on marketing to get these deals. What did that look like for you?

Stephen:
Yeah, so I mean definitely it’s going to take money or time, one or the other. I know some gurus will tell you how it’s just simple and easy and the like, but wholesaling to me, it’s simple. Losing weight is simple because you know how to lose weight. You eat less calories than you burn. You go to the gym every day and you’ll look great. And some people sell. Wholesaling is in, it’s so easy and you can make money. It’s like, yeah, you can, but you’ve got to put in work. You need to do the reps. So it can be hard in that sense. So what am I spending? Yeah, when I first started, I did mail. I did some texting and I did some driving for dollars, but that was spending time and money. Now I do have a company. So we have, there’s six of us here. I have two acquisition people. I have a head of growth and operations. I have disposition people. So I have a payroll now. We do a lot of marketing. We do cold calling, we do online marketing. So I’ve definitely stepped that up, but I went step by step. I didn’t start with this operation. I’ve grown slowly over the last couple of years.

Ashley:
Yeah, ballpark, when you first started, what were you spending just starting out?

Stephen:
I wasn’t spending that much. I was really was buying a few lists and I was texting, so I was buying list texting and some direct mail. So I was spending probably a couple grand a month, and it did take a little time. So it took me six months to close my first wholesale deal. But the interesting thing was I was working hard at it and I got my first, second, and third in the same week.

Ashley:
But that is a common theme that we hear is that it can take up to a year to actually get your first deal. But once you build that momentum and it takes that time, it takes the patience, it takes the investment. You’re paying six months, a couple thousand dollars each month, that can quickly add up if you’re not getting a deal.

Stephen:
And I think the important point I want to make on that is it wasn’t that I finally figured out what I was doing in the six months. It wasn’t that I started doing it right, it was all the work I’d done that six months started to come back because the follow up, the momentum. So once I did that, I started rolling. We’ve now done over 220 wholesale deals and the momentum rolled, but it took a lot of confidence to keep going. It took a lot of believing in myself, but I did and it worked. So to all the rookies out there in whatever you’re doing, whether it’s wholesaling investing, I would say just keep trying, keep going. Don’t stop before you get that success.

Ashley:
Now, Steve, when you’re doing the burrs for yourself, how are you financing these deals? How are you purchasing the properties? How are you paying for the rehab on them? And then what kind of loan are you using to refinance out of them?

Stephen:
So I was lucky enough to be able to buy my first ones with cash because I did have a company in Australia. We actually ended up listing on the Austral Stock Exchange. So that was helpful, and I was able to buy my first couple with the cash from selling my shares. What I did was I purchased with cash, but then I did do A-D-C-S-R loan on the backend and put 30 year fixed debt on it, on the refinance. And then I took that money and bought another property. The classic bur recycling lots of people, you don’t need to have the cash. I’m sure not all the rookies have the cash. You definitely don’t need that. It works just as well getting a hard loan to take down the property and then to use the same sort of DCSR loan to refinance. But I love the burrs.
Something that maybe a lot of your listeners might take for granted is the fact that 30 fixed debt only exists in America. It does not exist in Australia, and it does not exist anywhere else in the world. In Australia. There’s no fixed debt you can fix for three to five years max. So the fact that you can fix a loan for 30 years in a place that has inflation, et cetera, it’s such a solid thing. So that’s why I really am a big fan of the bur, and I think a lot of Americans don’t realize what a great opportunity it is for them.

Tony:
Steve, I want to get into the actual tactical side of how you are finding deals today. Because you mentioned not too long ago that before you were doing it at 70% of a RV, now you’re down to like 65 or 60%, which means it’s getting harder to find good deals. So I want to break down your exact process for finding good deals today, and we’ll do that right after a word from today’s show sponsors. Alright, we’re back here with Steve and we just covered his journey from Australia coming to New Orleans, building out this wholesaling business. But Steve, the thing that a lot of real estate investors are struggling with, especially today, is finding good deals. I think it’s even harder right now because there are a lot of sellers who are stuck on prices from like two years ago. There are a lot of people who don’t want to sell because they don’t want to trade into a higher interest rate. They’re to 3% that don’t want to sell and land at a six or a 7%. So it’s just getting harder to find good deals. So you talked earlier about your process. You’re sending out marketing, you’re sending out mailing. What have you found to be your best marketing channel today for finding those off market deals?

Stephen:
So my best marketing channel is online. I have a strong brand now. I’ve been doing it a while. So I get a lot of people coming through my website. They’ll find me through SEO paid advertising. So definitely that’s my best lead source. But I will say this, that I actually think it’s my sales process that is the key, not the lead source because I think all the lead sources work. I know lots of people that do bandit signs that work, texting mail. I don’t think it’s like there’s a silver bullet of the lead source. But what is important is when you get that lead, what experience does a seller have? So we are very honed in how we have a conversation with our sellers. We try to help them first. We’re caring, right? We’re empathetic, we’ll have a conversation. And the truth is, a lot of the time they don’t like your offer because it is hard.
And the truth is the market has changed and the sellers haven’t always realized that. So you need to be able to make an offer that is the right price that they’re probably not going to like, and you need to be able to make that offer. Still be nice about it, be firm about it, but just make that offer and keep rapport because the deal doesn’t always come on that first call. We will call them back and we will stay in contact with them. And ultimately, the deals often come over time. We talk about, there’s often a transition. I’ll give you a story that I think really typifies this because I once had this deal on, I think it was like a five plex I was working on. The seller had lived out of state. He wanted to sell, he was sick of managing it, but the price was closed, but we just couldn’t agree on the price.
And he had a property manager that was looking after the property and we sort of left it at that. I stayed in contact, but then one night I woke up and he literally called me at 2:00 AM in the morning. Why would he call me at 2:00 AM in the morning? But I called him back the next day and what had happened was his property manager who was looking after the property, he died. So for him, he wanted to sell. He didn’t like it, but he had a level of comfort straight away. That level of comfort just disappeared and he felt helpless. He’s in a different state. So we then put the deal together and what I will say is this transitions happen all the time. It doesn’t need to be as extreme as someone dying. It can be an AC blowing out. It can be something that happens. So if you just make your offers being nice, build rapport, stay in contact, the deals end up coming to you over time, regardless of where that lead initially came from.

Tony:
I want to go a little bit deeper into your sales process, Steve, but just circling back to the lead source, I appreciate you sharing that all the different lead sources can work if you execute them correctly. But you said that your website paid advertisements working really well for you. A few questions around the paid ads. One, are you running these ads yourself or have you outsourced this to some sort of agency? And then which platform have you found to be best? Are you doing Facebook, Instagram? Are you doing Google search? All of them? How are you actually divvying up your budget between the different platforms?

Stephen:
Google search would be the best. I have gone in between getting agencies and doing it myself. We currently have an agency doing it, so that’s been really good. I also get a lot of SEOs, a lot of organic listings. I do that myself, having had it run a tech business in Australia. I have a very good sense of that so that I run myself, and that works very well too.

Ashley:
So Steve, before we wrap up here, what is next for you? Is it to continue to do burrs, some wholesaling, or are you making a pivot into something else?

Stephen:
No, I definitely stick in my lane and I think that’s actually important. I think I see people switch too often, and even when it comes to wholesaling, a lot of people want to start in wholesaling and graduate to something else. I would say if you’re good at wholesaling, if that’s something, if you’re good at marketing, you should always keep wholesaling in your repertoire. It allows you to keep spending money on marketing and pick the deals that work for you. So I’m doubling down. I’m trying to grow my reach. We started in Greater New Orleans, we expanded to Baton Rouge, the Lafayette, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. I see ourselves as being more regional and expanding further than that. And at the same time just picking the birds that work for me, picking properties that work for me. But I will not stop because I built momentum and a brand and I’ll continue going and I might add some things on top as we go, but I’ll never change or pivot unless something forces me to.

Ashley:
Well, Steve, thank you so much for joining us today. We really appreciate it. Can you let everyone know where they can reach out to you and find out more information about your journey?

Stephen:
Yeah, absolutely. You can check us out home via louisiana.com is my website. You can go and check that out. You can also find me on LinkedIn, Stephen Curie, I guess. Check the show notes. Not that easy to spell.

Ashley:
Well, thank you so much. We really appreciate you taking the time and giving us this little masterclass inside of your business. Thank you so much. I’m Ashley. He’s Tony. And we’ll see you guys on the next episode of Real Estate Rookie.

 

 

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Let’s be honest: You probably started your short-term rental journey to make more money. You wanted extra cash flow and maybe a path to financial freedom, not another stressful part-time job that barely breaks even. But is your pricing strategy actually helping you reach that goal, or is it quietly choking your revenue?

If your honest answer is “I don’t know” or “not really,” your pricing is not just a minor problem. It is probably one of the main reasons your property is underperforming.

That is why I sat down with one of the most obsessive minds in the Airbnb space, Sean Rakidzich (@airbnbautomated). Every time we talk, the conversation goes deep quickly. This time, we focused entirely on pricing structure, revenue management, and how hosts can stop donating money to the market in 2026.

What follows is a playbook version of that conversation. Think of it as the pricing gut check you wish you’d had before listing your property.

Pricing Mistake One: Entitlement

Sean’s first point is simple and a little painful. Many hosts price their property with a sense of entitlement. They say things like:

  • “My place is worth at least $250 a night.”
  • “I refuse to go below this number.”
  • “I know my value.”

The problem is that value is not something you decide in a vacuum. It moves with the season, demand, competition, and lead time.

You might be worth $1,000 a night on a summer holiday weekend. You might be worth $125 on a random Tuesday in February. If you’re not willing to move both up and down with the market, you will lose bookings and leave money on the table.

Sean’s framing helps here. In most markets, it is normal to lose money or barely break even for a month or two each year. The goal is not to avoid slow months entirely. It’s to lose less than everyone else in those periods by being flexible and realistic with your prices.

Pricing Mistake Two: Treating Software Like Magic

Once hosts realize prices need to change, many take the next step and sign up for a pricing tool. That is a good move. The mistake is expecting the software to replace their thinking.

Sean sees this a lot with co-host clients. They sign up for a tool, flip every feature to “on,” and assume they are now practicing revenue management. In reality, they have just created chaos.

Typical software mistakes include:

  • Turning on every advanced setting at once.
  • Setting a very high base rate and a minimum that sits just under it.
  • Locking the tool so it can only push rates higher, never lower.

A better approach is slow and tedious. Start with:

  • A straightforward set of rules.
  • A realistic base rate.
  • A few weeks of observation.

Watch how often you get bookings. If you are not getting enough, lower the base rate. If you are getting booked too quickly, raise it. Only after you understand that baseline should you start layering in more complex rules.

How to Use Wishlists as a Live Pricing Compass

Most hosts never realize how powerful Airbnb’s Wishlist feature is as a pricing tool.

Here is the exercise Sean recommends. First, go to Airbnb and search in your exact area. Save only the listings that are truly comparable to yours. That means similar:

  • Size
  • Quality
  • Design level
  • Type of guest you attract

Put 20 to 30 of those into one Wishlist.

Next, open that Wishlist and search for specific dates. Use the map view. You will see two things that matter:

  • Listings booked for those dates will be crossed out.
  • Listings that are still open will show the price for those dates.

Now you have real-time insight into your competition. For any date range, you can say:

  • “My place is clearly better than this one.”
  • “I am not as nice as that one.”
  • “My price belongs between these two properties.”

Add timing to that. If the dates are close and many listings are still available, you need to be more aggressive. If the dates are far out and almost everything is already gone, you can push a little higher.

This takes effort, but it is honest. It keeps you anchored to what is actually happening, rather than what a third-party data site or your ego tells you.

Using Pricing Tools Without Sabotaging Yourself

When hosts do adopt software, there are a couple of classic “do not do this” moves that hurt performance. Sean called them the cardinal sins.

The first is turning on everything; every slider, feature, and “advanced” toggle. The issue is that each setting is designed to solve a specific problem. If you do not yet know what problem you have, turning on everything only hides what it is.

The second is setting a base rate so high that the tool cannot actually adjust much. If your base is $400 and your minimum is $370, you have told the software that it is only allowed to push your price higher. You have removed the tool’s ability to help you compete on slower dates.

A healthier way to start:

  • Turn on the minimum features you need.
  • Set a base rate you would be comfortable with if you were pricing manually.
  • Watch what happens three months, one month, and two weeks out.

Once you understand that pattern, you can start doing more advanced work like segmenting your calendar into zones.

What Zones Are, and Why They Matter

Zones are Sean’s way of making sense of lead time and average daily rate.

Not all bookings are equal. A stay that books 120 days in advance behaves very differently from one that books five days out. With at least a year of historical data, you can see this clearly.

Here is one way to explore it:

  • Export your booking history for a property.
  • Drop it into a spreadsheet.
  • Group the bookings by how many days before check-in they were made.
  • Calculate your average daily rate for each lead time band, such as 0 to 15 days, 16 to 30 days, and so on.

What you will usually see is a curve. There will be a “golden window” where your ADR peaks. Very far out, you might be lower. Very last minute, you might be lower again.

From there, you can define rough zones, such as:

  • Hyper far future
  • Far future
  • Golden window
  • Near term
  • Last minute

The point is not to memorize names. You need to learn where your property earns the most, and where it struggles. Then tweak your strategy in each zone, rather than using one rule for the entire year.

Why Weekdays Feel Impossible in Vacation Markets

If you own a vacation destination, you have probably felt this pattern. Weekends fill decently. Midweek sits empty and stares at you.

Sean walked through why this happens. First, demand for the destination spikes. People start visiting. Early hosts make serious money because there are not many listings. 

Then, over time, investors flood in and add supply. Eventually, supply catches up with peak weekend demand. But weekday demand does not keep rising at the same pace. You end up with:

  • Just enough or slightly too much inventory for Friday and Saturday.
  • Way too much inventory for Monday through Thursday.

On weekdays, guests have an ocean of good options at low prices. When everything is cheap and decent, price becomes less of a sorting tool. Now you are in a marketing and positioning battle, not just a pricing game.

Strategies to Consider

So what can you actually do about it?

Reverse weekend bundles

One smart way to tie weekdays to weekends is what Sean calls a reverse weekend bundle. You discount the weekdays only when they are part of a more extended stay that includes the weekend.

For example:

  • Create a rule on Airbnb that gives 40% off on a four-night stay and 55% off on a five-night stay.
  • Apply that discount only to Tuesday and Wednesday.

If someone books Tuesday through Saturday, the discount only touches the midweek nights. The guest feels like they got a deal on the whole trip. You protected your prime nights and improved your midweek occupancy.

Adjacency rules for orphan nights

When your Saturday gets booked, your Sunday instantly becomes harder to sell. It is no longer attached to the most desirable night.

An adjacency rule set helps rescue those “orphan” nights. Think of it like this: Any time you see a checkout on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday, apply a small discount for a two-night stay that includes the leftover night.

This creates a targeted incentive. You are not slashing all weekdays. You are only making it more attractive to grab the awkward nights next to existing bookings.

Tools like PriceLabs and Wheelhouse can help automate this kind of logic. Sean also builds similar structures into his own pricing systems.

Turn leftover days into a different product

There is also an operational angle. Sometimes the solution is not to discount harder, but to change what you are selling. One creative approach is to list private rooms on weekdays when the whole house is not booked. The benefits:

  • You now compete with other private rooms, not with every home in your market.
  • You capture a different type of guest at a different price point.
  • You convert zero revenue days into a meaningful contribution to margin.

To keep things manageable, you can set fixed checkout days. For example, all private room guests must check out on Tuesday or Friday. That way, your cleaner does not have to come every single day just to flip rooms.

Thinking in Terms of Probability Instead of Hope

One of the most potent parts of the conversation with Sean was around probability. Most hosts think about price emotionally. They set a high number for a weekend, cross their fingers, and hope it books. If it doesn’t, they blame the market. 

 

Sean suggests a different tactic: Start tracking your lowest documented attempts. For each property, write down:

  • The lowest price you tried at various lead times.
  • Whether that price actually got booked.

Over time, you might find patterns like:

  • Two months out, you always book at $195.
  • Two weeks out, you always book at $150.
  • Five days out, you always book at $85.

Those become your “floors” at each stage. A floor is a price that, in your experience, has a near-100% chance of booking. Once you know your floors, you can compare choices.

Imagine you have a weekend that’s 14 days out. You could:

  • Try for $300 a night, with maybe a 30% chance of success.
  • Or take $200 a night with close to a 100% chance.

In expected value terms:

  • A 30% chance at $300 is like earning $90.
  • A near-certain chance at $200 is simply $200.

Far out, you can afford to experiment and be ambitious. As you get closer to check-in, you should lean more toward certainty and your proven floors.

Using Pickup Rate and Demand Colors

If you use PriceLabs, there are two features Sean really likes. The first is the pickup rate in Neighborhood Data. It shows you:

  • How many listings have been booked in the last seven days for each future date.
  • How overall occupancy is growing over time.

If the pickup rate is flat for a date, no one is booking it. If it suddenly spikes, something is happening, and demand is starting to build. You can be more confident with your prices for those days.

The second is demand for colors in the calendar. PriceLabs uses different shades to represent demand, from green for weak to dark blue for strong.

If you see a run of dark blue days together, that’s a sign that:

  • You can safely raise your nightly rates for that stretch.
  • You might want to increase your minimum stay so you don’t waste those nights on short stays.

Think of it as a visual confirmation of when to be aggressive and when to be cautious.

The Big Truth: The Guest Decides What You Are Worth

Underneath all this math sits one big truth: The customer decides what you are worth.

Every time a guest opens Airbnb, they see a lineup of prices and photos. At that moment, they build their own sense of value based on:

  • What else is available.
  • How your listing looks beside those options.
  • How much urgency they feel.

In peak season, as inventory shrinks, you can often push higher because scarcity is on your side. In the slow season, as supply overwhelms demand, you have to lean more heavily on experience and marketing to stand out. 

  • In the slow season, guests have the advantage. As time runs out, hosts panic and discount deeper.
  • In peak season, hosts have the advantage. As time runs out, guests panic and pay more.

If you understand which side you are on for a given date, your pricing decisions become much clearer.

Finally, think about contribution margin. Your core bookings already cover your fixed costs. If you can grab 30 extra nights per year at $100 each, that’s $3,000 in mostly pure profit. That kind of margin can be the difference between “this is not working” and “this is worth scaling.”

Where Pricing Fits in Your 2026 Strategy

Here is the final reality check: Using a pricing tool was once an advantage. Now it’s just the entry fee. More than 70% of hosts already use some form of dynamic pricing. If you’re not one of them, you are behind. If you are one of them, you are simply caught up.

So, where is the edge now?

  • Pricing is the baseline.
  • Marketing and guest experience are the difference makers.
  • Direct bookings are the long-term play.

Get your revenue house in order so you stop losing easy money. Then, put your energy into becoming the host guests remember, talk about, and actively seek out, even before they filter the page by price.



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Dave:
2026 is shaping up to be the start of what Redfin calls the Great Housing Reset, a long, slow period where affordability improves and the market normalizes not a quick flip or a recession. I’m Dave Meyer and today I’m joined by Redfin’s Head of Economic Research, Chen Zhao. To unpack their new annual predictions report, we’ll dive into each of their 11 predictions and walk through the headline calls from rate cuts to sales, inching up rents, reaccelerating, and which markets are likely to heat up or Cool down. This is on the market. Let’s get into it. Jen, welcome back to On the Market. Thanks so much for joining us again.

Chen:
Thanks so much for having me, Dave.

Dave:
This is one of our favorite shows of the year, hearing what Redfin has for predictions. So maybe just start by telling us sort of like big headline, what are you seeing? What’s the big top level narrative about the market in 26?

Chen:
I’d say the headline is that we see the housing market taking a bit of a turn. I think it’s already starting a little bit this year, but we think it’s going to continue next year and it’s going to be a bit of a longer what we’re calling a reset of the housing market where we think affordability will start to slowly change. And affordability really has been the big challenge for the housing market as we all know. But there’s no silver Ebola, there’s no magical fix. It’s going to take a while and we think next year is the start of better affordability for home buyers.

Dave:
That is music to my ears. I think I saw something you all put out that affordability was the best it’s been in two or three years, just in the second half of 2025. So it seems like that trend is already emerging.

Chen:
Yes, I think we’re starting to see the beginnings of that trend in the second half of 2025. So namely the two important factors are mortgage rates and home prices. So we know that mortgage rates have come down a little bit. We expect them to stay lower, we can get into more of that. And then home prices. We know the home prices are not growing as fast as they were. This has to do with the shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, and we can talk about how we’d expect that to continue for the next few years and what the underlying forces are.

Dave:
All right, great. Well, I tend to agree with the overall sort of thesis here. I think you guys called it the housing reset. I’ve called it sort of the great stall where I think prices are just kind of stay stagnant for a while. But let’s get into the specific predictions that you all have. So what is the first one?

Chen:
The first one is about mortgage rates. So right now mortgage rates are in the low sixes, 6.2, 6.3%. We think they’re staying here. I think another way of putting this is that we don’t expect mortgage rates to get into the fives, not for any sustained period of time. We know that mortgage rates fluctuates. Sometimes you get a little bounced down, but I don’t think it’ll stay there. We also don’t really expect mortgage rates to get back up to 7% either. I think the important thing they’re here to focus on is of course, always the Fed and what they’re thinking about, and they’re always balancing this dual mandate that they have. So is it preventing high inflation, just trying to keep inflation low and steady and also trying to keep unemployment from going up? So right now the economy is in a very delicate balance. We know that the higher tariff rates have slowed economic growth.
They also threatened to increase inflation even though we haven’t seen as much of that so far. But that means that the Fed has a really unique challenge on its hands. So even for the meeting that’s happening next Wednesday, it’s a bit of an open question, what are they going to be doing going forward? But because they’re in this delicate balance, there’s not much room for them to cut a lot, but we also don’t think they’re going to be hiking. So that means we’re sort of stuck here with where mortgage rates are. And then the other thing you have to keep in mind is that there’s this big transition happening next year with the Fed. The president will be nominating a new chair of the Federal Reserve. The chair is only one of 12 votes on the FOMC. So contrary to some of the stuff that you see in the press, the chair of the Federal Reserve does not set interest rate policy. He or she is one person on that committee, but it is a very important person and that transition is something that we also have to keep really close tabs on.

Dave:
Got it. Okay. So not expecting a lot of movement either way. It does seem kind of stuck. We have these dual, I guess you would call threats to the economy right now where inflation has been, we don’t have a lot of inflation data for the last couple of months, but inflation prior to the government shutdown had been ticking up a little bit and job losses, it seems like every print tells us a different story. So it’s just really hard to understand what’s going on there and until we get clear line of sight on one of those things and which one is really going to be the bigger issue or which one gets cleared up first. I agree with you that it’s not going to move much. I am curious, just the last couple of days the Fed stopped quantitative tightening. Do you think there’s any chance that the Fed does something more dramatic next year to impact mortgage rates, like maybe quantitative easing or something like that?

Chen:
I don’t think so. I think that the communications that we’ve gotten from the Fed is pretty clear on this, that they want to pivot away from mortgage backed securities and pivot towards a portfolio of treasury securities. And this idea that’s been floated a few times, I’ve seen some op-eds about it saying, Hey, look, higher mortgage rates is really killing the housing industry. Can we do something for housing? Maybe that means the Fed buys MBS. It’s really hard to imagine that they would choose to do something like that when you still have so much lingering inflation risk from higher tariff rates. Because you have to remember that housing is still the largest component of course CPI or PCE, whichever your favorite measure is. And so if you were to stoke the housing market right now, what you would see is that home prices would just shoot up and they really just after all the stars and PTSD from the last few years with high inflation, I just can’t imagine that they would really choose to do that.
And Chair Powell has been asked about this a few times in his press conferences and he has said each time very consistently, the problem in the housing market is that there needs to be more supply. We all know this very well. We say it all the time. That’s a very hard problem to solve. Put another way, I think another way to look at it is in the housing market, what we need is for prices to come down. We’re in a new economic era now after the pandemic where rates are just going to be sitting higher. I often like to talk about this in terms of people’s metabolisms. As you age, your metabolism changes, you need to change what you eat. And it’s a little bit like that for the housing market. So we actually do need to just see lower home prices. That’s the right way to get the housing market back to a healthy state.

Dave:
I agree with you there. So do you think that’s going to happen? Maybe I’m skipping ahead on your predictions, but do you think that will happen that we’ll see home prices decline?

Chen:
We’re already starting to see it this year. So we started the year with home prices increasing about 5% year over year. We’re down to about two three ish percent depending on exactly how you want to measure it, what specific metrics you want to look at. So it’s come down a lot and it came down a lot because the change of home buyers to home sellers has changed, right? So Redfin has this proprietary metric that we put out that we call active buyers and sellers. So sellers is really easy. It’s just the amount of inventory in the market, the number of buyers is something that we impute from some of our proprietary data where if we can see how many homes are selling and we know how long takes people to find homes and how long it takes to sell homes, we can put all that together in a model and say, this implies that there are this many buyers in the housing market actively looking right now.
And what we saw was that that gap got really large in the spring of this year. There was about 37% more home sellers than home buyers across the country. And most housing markets were tipping from being sellers markets to being buyers markets. So that ratio of sellers of buyers has a very close relationship to home price growth with a lead of about six months or so. So what we’re seeing is that that shift has led to home price appreciation really slowing down, and it’s hard to imagine as we continue to follow this metric and that gap continues to be historically large, that it’s hard to imagine that home price growth will accelerate again. And then especially if you layer on top of that, what we see happening with demographics. So we know that immigration into this country has for more or less halted. We also know that the underlying demographics of the country means that there’s going to be smaller populations going forward, that it’s really hard to imagine that home prices will actually be appreciating that rapidly in the near or medium term.
But on the other hand, it’s also difficult to imagine that home prices will really be falling dramatically because as we all know, people don’t have to sell their homes. You can choose to rent it out, you can choose to continue to live in it. And we actually put out a report, I believe it was last week, looking at Delists, and we saw that the fraction of homes that are being delisted in 2025 was about 5.5%. That was up from about 4.8% last year, which doesn’t sound like a huge increase, but that fraction has been very constant below 5% for the last eight to 10 years. So that means that that increase is actually meaningful. It doesn’t sound like a huge amount, but it’s a pretty meaningful increase. And what we saw was that the homes that are being delisted are people who bought more recently. They don’t want to sell where buyers are willing to pay right now. So buyers and sellers are just sort of far apart. And so as long as home sellers aren’t willing to go where buyers need them to go, it’s actually very hard for prices to also fall.

Dave:
Yeah, actually we did a whole show on that report about I think it’s super interesting and to me it just reflects that sellers are responding appropriately to the market because I think a lot of the crash narratives that you hear about are there’s going to be panic selling or there’s going to be this downward spiral of increasing inventory, but what you’re seeing is a normal reaction. People don’t want to sell at a loss, they don’t want to, and they don’t have to. There’s no forced selling going on, so they’re just choosing not to sell. I think it’s personally, I’m curious to see if they come back on in the spring because I have a lot of friends who are house flippers, a lot of ’em are pulling ’em off and we’ll do it in the spring. But I think that to me is a sign that you’re correct that it’s going to be sort of a boring year price wise for the housing market.

Chen:
Yeah, I mean we’re going to continue to publish this delisting data pretty regularly and we will also be publishing who is delisting and are they re-listing the home. So we should see that in the spring if they are coming back on the market. It is boring, I guess in some sense to say, look, home prices are going to maybe increasing 1% or 2%, something very low, but it’s actually a meaningful change for buyers because what that means is that home prices are growing slower than wages, and that is what buyers actually need. They need time for wages to catch up to where home prices are because home prices are not going to be falling. This is the only mechanism that we have in order to get to this place where we need to go, where homes are more affordable for people, where their incomes actually are, and that’s what we think will be happening next year.

Dave:
So that is your second prediction, right? For next year?

Chen:
Yes. Essentially at home prices are going to be growing slower than wages, and this is the step that you need for affordability. But importantly, this kind of progress is very slow. So it might not even be very noticeable to a lot of buyers after the first year. We don’t expect affordability to all of a sudden jump back to where it was before the pandemic. It’s going to be a slow process, maybe five to six years. It might take a while for buyers to actually notice, hey, affordability has gotten better.

Dave:
That makes sense. It’s just for everyone who is listening. We’ve been talking about this on the show recently, but what Chen is talking about also reflects the difference between nominal and real home prices because Chen said prices might go up one to 2%. That’s the price you see on Redfin if you were going to go look. But when you actually compare that increase to inflation to wages, they’re actually negative. And I know that sounds negative to some people, but that means affordability is improving. That’s how we’re actually getting affordability. And right now it’s baby steps towards affordability, but we can get back towards meaningful improvements in affordability over time. If real home prices stay kind of flat and wages keep growing, that’s a normal way that we get affordability back into the housing market. Alright, so we’ve gone through our first two predictions from you, which is first about mortgage rates dipping into the low sixes, but staying there. Prediction two, home buying affordability will improve as wages grow faster than prices. What’s the third one?

Chen:
The third one is about sales. So we think that sales will inch up just slightly next year. So we’re thinking about existing home sales very specifically. It’s been about 4.1 million. It’s going to be 4.1 million again this year-ish. Next year we’re forecasting 4.2 million. It’s not a lot historically, it’s very, very low actually. It’s only up about 3% from where we think we will end this year. I think that the increase affordability means you just get a little bit more activity in the market, but by and large, what we’re describing with buyers and sellers, really just being at the stalemate means that you’re not going to get this huge pickup in the housing market next year.

Dave:
I hope you’re wrong about this, but I agree with you. I just think for this whole industry, it would be great if we had more sales volume. It just feels like it’s been so sluggish and slow and for anyone who’s a lender agent, it’s been a tough slog and hopefully though at least this is a sign of the right direction, it’s got to bottom out at some point. And maybe this means that we’re moving towards better home sales volume. Maybe not in 2026, a little bit better, but maybe in the years after that we’ll start getting towards a more normal level of sales volume. All right. So those are your first three predictions. We do have to take a quick break, but we’ll be back with Chen Zhao from Redfin right after this. Welcome back to On the Market. We are going through Redfin’s housing predictions for 2026. So far we’ve talked about mortgage rates, home buyer affordability, home sales, Chen. What is the fourth prediction Redfin has this year?

Chen:
It’s about rents. So as we all know, rents have been really flagged to slightly declining for a number of years now. We think that next year rents will start to tick up just a little bit, probably towards the back half of the year. We know that multifamily construction has really slowed. There’s also increased demand from people not buying a home for renting. So the combination of those two things means that we would probably just get the smallest uptick in rents. It might mean that you were talking about this difference between nominal and real price growth. Right now, rents are falling on a real basis. Once you adjust for inflation by some metrics, they’re actually falling on a nominal basis. We think we might get to somewhere where it’s flat on a real basis. So rents are keeping up with inflation, in other words.

Dave:
And that’s based on mostly just the supply glut that we’ve sort of been in for multifamily, dissipating.

Chen:
Exactly. I think that’s the main motivation here, but we also think that this continued affordability challenge that’s just going to take a long time to work through on the purchase side means you just get higher demand still. We also know that the economy has gotten a lot weaker. The labor market’s weaker. We’re sort of on the edge of a recession, probably won’t fall into a recession, but that will keep enough people renting rather than buying.

Dave:
That’s interesting. I noticed the same thing. I saw some stat that the unemployment rate for people under 25 is like 9% right now. These kinds of numbers that I don’t know if we go into a recession or not, but it made me wonder if it will weigh on household formation. I think you’re right. We’ll have a higher percentage of people renting, but for rental demand to keep up, we need household growth. But I’m curious if you have any thoughts on that, if that’s going to slow down or where that will go?

Chen:
We do think that the slower economic growth will weigh on household formation a little bit, but the economy, there’s a lot of headlines right now about the negative jobs data that we’re seeing. The government shutdown means that we just haven’t gotten great official jobs data, so we still need to wait for that. And the reality of the labor market is that it has slowed down a lot, but it’s still staying afloat and the economy is still staying afloat. So that makes me think that we won’t get a huge impact yet on household formation, but housing costs remain high. So we do think there are going to be some impacts on things like household formation and also on things like people deciding to start a family. So our fifth prediction is that affordability means people have more roommates. We say fewer babies, meaning that maybe you want to get into a bigger home before you start to have kids, but you are finding it’s that to be really challenging. So you’re going to delay that for a little while. And as I was saying before, we do think housing affordability will improve, but it’s going to take a number of years. So that will weigh on some of these factors for families.

Dave:
Got it. Okay. I mean that makes sense to me. I do think people are stretched and it’s going to be hard for people to go out and form a new household just for everyone knows household formation, it’s a little bit different than population growth. It’s basically measuring the total demand for housing units. So for example, if two roommates are living together, then they each decide to go out and get their own apartment. Doesn’t change the population of a city or the country, but that adds one more household and that adds one more unit of demand that could happen when a young person moves out of their parents’ house or if they’re two people split up and they decide to have two homes. So that’s what we’re talking about and that’s just an ongoing question I have particularly as it relates to rents. So we actually, we got a twofer on that one. We did prediction four and five at the same time. So what is prediction six?

Chen:
Prediction six is about policy. So housing affordability has become the paramount issue in policy. I think what we saw in the last election cycle is that it is the decisive issue actually, or it will be in a lot of elections. And I think both parties know this and candidates who are running for office also know this. So our prediction is that there will be a lot of serious proposals brought forward. It is as is always the case in policy. Some of them will be useful and some of them may not be that useful. At the end of the day, we know that in order to really address housing affordability, you have to build more supply, but that is really, really hard to do because it’s controlled by thousands of local jurisdictions. A good portion of the population has a vested interest in not allowing there to be more supply. So this is a very tricky problem to solve and it’s going to require really innovative policy solutions because quite frankly, no one’s really solved this problem. And it’s been a problem for a long time. We know that the country is short, many millions housing units, but across the country when you’re looking at election results, you can see that this really is the main issue that’s on the minds of voters.

Dave:
Well, I hope you’re right. I do hope that we start to see some sensible policies here. I was getting interviewed the other day and I was saying I feel like the real hard thing here is that policies that actually help are not really well aligned with the election cycles in the United States because adding supply takes years. We could start now and it could take three years, it could take five years, it takes seven years and politicians both sides of the aisle, they’re trying to get reelected every two years or every four years. And so oftentimes I think what frustrates me is the solutions that get the most traction are the short-term ones that might maybe make a dent in the short run but aren’t really going after the supply issue. I’m curious if you have any thoughts on what’s some good policies or any examples of policies that could actually help here, because I totally agree this is a huge problem for the country. It needs to be

Chen:
Fixed. To me, I think there are local jurisdictions that have made some progress by making it easier, taking away red tape, maybe introducing a D or manufacture housing, all these different types of innovation to try to add some supply. It’s not a silver bullet and it’s not enough supply, although we shouldn’t discount that. There is some progress being made. I think in order for there to be a consolidated federal push, the difficulty is that the federal government is involved in the housing market, mostly on the financing side. It’s not on the supply side, but the federal government has a lot of sticks and carrots that it can use when talking to local jurisdictions because local governments get a lot of funding from the federal government. I think if there was a way to use these carrots and sticks and ties some funding to outcomes in local jurisdictions, that could be a really promising solution. I don’t know that this has been tried very much in a meaningful way, but that would be something to explore most of the proposals that get put forward or on the demand side. And as we all know, that’s not actually what is helpful. We just have to address what is actually happening on the supply side.

Dave:
That makes a lot of sense because just as an example, demand side policies, if you subsidize buyers or you lower mortgage rates to figure out some way to help people buy, that could be helpful for a minute, but then it just pushes the price of homes up and you still have the same long-term structural affordability challenges. Right,

Chen:
Exactly. It makes the problem actually worse in the long run. It’s very myopic and it’s really honestly the last thing that we need. I often do when I’m thinking about housing policy and the affordability issue, we have to take our medicine, you can’t have your cake and eat it at the same time. At some point you have to take your medicine. And I think that’s the really hard part because one really does because most people who own homes, the majority of their wealth is in their home.

Dave:
So it’s hard. I get that people want more affordability without making their home go down in value. That is a tricky thing to pull off. I’ve said this on the show a few times, I like your saying, take your medicine. We’re in an unhealthy place in the housing market and to get back to health, there’s going to be some pain somewhere. You don’t get a magic redo. And so I personally think the slow you guys are calling the great reset or call the great stall, I think that’s kind of a good balance personally, if we can add more supply gradually, if wages can go up, this is a tolerable way for affordability to get restored without the bottom falling out of the market and homeowners losing a ton of equity and wealth. And so I am encouraged by some of the market dynamics, but I do think the policy thing is still the missing piece. There’s no coherent policy from anyone. I’m not blaming one party or the other. There is no coherent policy from anyone about how we’re going to do better

Chen:
And it’s an incredibly tricky problem to solve.

Dave:
Alright, let’s move on to our seventh prediction. What do you got?

Chen:
So our seventh prediction is that more people will refi and remodel. So when we think about refi, I think we’re thinking about it in two different ways. One is simply that over the last few years actually a lot of people have bought homes at really high mortgage rates. So right now about 20% of people who have a mortgage have a rate above 6%. So as rates fall into that below sixes, you actually have a healthy number of people who will be in the money for a refi. So we do expect that refi volume will increase about 30% next year. Wow. So that is, it’s off a very small base, so we have to remember that. But that is meaningful, right? Because 6.3% mortgage rates sounds pretty high, but if you remember that we were at 6.8% and 6.8% and then six point, I think this year, 6.6% probably average for the year.
Like we’re coming down very, very slowly and it’s enough of a change that you will have people who are going to be in the money for a refi. The other is just that, as we all know, a lot of people have a lot of equity in their homes, but they’re also still stuck. They can’t afford to move on to a bigger house. So a lot of them probably will start to, if they haven’t already tap into that home equity, I think renovation will continue to be a hot topic where people are going to be trying to make the space that they have work for them.

Dave:
We do have to take one more quick break, but we’ll be back with Chen and the rest of redfin’s 2026 housing market predictions right after this. Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer here with Chen Zhao of Redfin, talking about redfin’s predictions for 2026. We’ve gone through the first seven. Let’s keep moving. Chen, what is prediction number eight?

Chen:
So prediction number eight is about different regions of the country. So we think that the markets that are going to be hot in 2026 are really a lot of these suburbs around New York City that right now are some of our strongest markets. Also some of the metros in the Midwest, which are among the more affordable places. On the flip side, we think that the places that we’re really seeing that are among our weaker markets in the Sunbelt in Florida and Texas, these are going to continue to be the weaker markets in 2026. So there is this back to office return to office trend that is just continuing to happen. It is I think going to be more of a trend in a weaker housing market because employers just have more of the upper hands right now. People who are looking for jobs are having a really difficult time finding jobs. So when they say three days is now four days, four days is now five days, or you just have to, I think there’s going to be more of that happening, but still some people will remain hybrid. So not everyone’s going to be looking to move to Manhattan, but a lot of people are going to be looking to move to Long Island and New Jersey or Westchester. And so these are the markets that are seller’s markets, even though most of the country is made up of buyer’s markets at this point.

Dave:
And how do you see the spread here Over the last couple of years? We’ve seen dramatic differences. If you looked at 24, 25, there are markets like Milwaukee were up seven 8%. There’s Austin down seven, 8%. That was a pretty big spread between the top and bottom performing markets. Do you see that consolidating a little bit?

Chen:
Yes. I mean there are places, especially Florida and Texas, these are your weakest markets right now. When you compare them to what’s happening on Long Island, they’re like worlds apart right now. But what we’re continuing to see in places like Florida and Texas is that a lot of these metros have a hundred, 150, sometimes 200% more sellers than there are buyers.

Dave:
Oh my god.

Chen:
And as I was saying, that metric tends to be forward looking by about six months. So that means that probably over the next six months to a year, if we continue to see the spread between buyers and sellers being so big, these markets are going to continue to be pretty weak.

Dave:
And what about the hotter markets? Is this modest growth two 3% or something higher than that?

Chen:
It feels like these markets, if anything, are actually heating up a little bit, not a ton, right? Demand is kind of slow in general. That’s an overarching thing kind of everywhere, but it’s still relatively speaking, they seem to be heating up. And a lot of these markets like Boston or Long Island around New York City, these are places where you’re still maintaining a healthy distance where there’s more buyers than sellers. And so that feels like it’s something to sustain the price growth that we’re seeing.

Dave:
Well, this will be an interesting one to watch because the market is, we talk on the show all the time about the national market, but clearly as Chen just pointed out, we have very different markets and is an investor or homeowner, you need to be looking at what’s going on in your individual market to formulate your strategy. Alright, let’s go to our ninth prediction. We’re flying through these. Which one’s that Chen?

Chen:
It’s about climate migration. So we think that this is going to be more of a local story than a cross metro story in 2026. So we know that with climate change that this has become more on the minds of buyers. So people are paying attention to climate data when they see it on real estate portals. We know that insurance has become a real issue when it comes to affordability and the housing market, but when buyers are thinking about where to live, they have so many different issues that they have to contend with. They got to think about where’s your family? Where are the jobs? So instead of saying people aren’t going to be living in Florida, maybe they need to be in Florida for some other reason, they might be thinking about, I need to live in this part of the city rather than this other part of the city, which might be more prone to disaster risk. So I think that feels, I think more realistic for home buyers who have to contend with a number of different factors when they’re thinking about where to buy a house.

Dave:
How do you measure that? How do you know people are, if you see someone move within a city, how do you know it’s because of climate risk?

Chen:
I think one really good way to do this, and it’s hard to have all the data in place in order to really do this analysis well, is to look at insurance costs. Because really when talking about climate risk, it’s manifested through insurance costs, right? So I think if you were able to look at insurance costs and then tie that to housing market activity, and we have a pretty good measure of demand in the housing market right now through our buyers and sellers metric, that could help you to see this relationship clearly even within a broader metro area. I think.

Dave:
And I’m curious, you said you see this happening just in 2026. Do you think there is potential for cross metro migration in the future? Do you not have that information?

Chen:
I think if you’re thinking further out when you’re thinking about disaster risk or insurance costs, this is I think one kind of lingering big risk for the housing market. It’s a little bit hard to know exactly where it goes many, many years from now though. I think it really depends on what we actually see happening in insurance markets, what mortgage companies decide to do in terms of thinking about the risk and who’s owning the risk for the properties that are mortgaged and have this disaster risk. So it’s a little bit harder to see, but certainly I think it wouldn’t be out of the question for there to be a cross metro migration.

Dave:
Thank you. Alright, we have two more predictions to go. What’s number 10?

Chen:
So number 10 is really about the industry. We think that with so many MLSs out there, the National Association of Realtors is going to sort of just take a little bit of a step back, let the MLSs set more of their own rules. This is something that’s really already starting to happen, so it’s more of a continuation prediction than a change. And NAR is really going to, for its part, actually spend more time on advocacy instead.

Dave:
Oh, okay. Interesting. Do you think it’s just given a lot of challenges NAR has faced in the last couple of years? They have to pick and choose where they’re going to spend their energy?

Chen:
Yes, I think so. I think it makes sense as a continuation of the turmoil in the industry that we’ve seen over these last few years.

Dave:
I think that makes sense. Just being a casual observer of how much, yeah, like you said, there’s been a lot of turmoil in the industry. That brings us to our last prediction, number 11. What do you got?

Chen:
Well, number 11 is about everyone’s favorite topic. AI can’t escape ai,

Dave:
Right? Yes. You got to talk about can’t go through a podcast without talking about ai.

Chen:
Of course. Yeah. So love the prediction is that AI will become a real estate matchmaker. We’re already starting to see this. AI is infiltrating basically every aspect of our lives. We think that AI is really increasingly going to help people decide where to live, which homes to buy. It’s just going to start to play a bigger role. Redfin has conversational search now on our website. We’ve seen that a lot of the users who are using it are really happy with the results because it means that instead of going through the search filters, you can have a conversation and describe what you want in your home search. And that’s very appealing to a lot of people. People are also going to use AI to just do research and look into which cities or which towns have the characteristics that our family is looking for. So this is still technology that’s very much in its early stages, even though it seems like it’s dominating the news all the time. But over the next few years, it’s hard to imagine that AI wouldn’t play a much bigger role in real estate search.

Dave:
I think so too. I think the search part really makes a lot of sense. That seems right up AI ally. I’ve seen some predictions that people are saying they’re going to help negotiations or coordinate transactions. What do you think about that side of things

Chen:
That feels like if that happens, it has to be further down the road? Right? Because when you bring AI into a role like that, I think there’s also a bit of a trust issue where people, when you’re thinking about what is the difference between AI and a human, most humans will probably say, well, I trust another human more than I trust ai. Like I was saying, the technology is still in its early days. There’s so much for us to learn about it right now. So the search component feels like the obvious place where it can really make a positive change right now. But a few years down the road, who knows?

Dave:
I agree with you. Long-term probably going to disrupt everything. But right now, I think a lot of people are sort of saying AI can do things. It can’t yet, at least not in a reliable way, but I think search, research, gathering data, those kinds of things, it is already pretty good at. And so this makes a lot of sense to me. Alright, well thank you so much, Chen, for being here. This is a lot of fun. It’s always fun talking through these predictions and seeing how they play out through the rest of the year. Thank you for being here and for all the amazing research you and your team at Redfin put out. We’re always talking about your work here on the market.

Chen:
Well, thanks so much. It’s always fun coming on here. So thank you for having us.

Dave:
Absolutely. And thank you all so much for listening to this episode on the market. We’ll see you next time.

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Remember the good old days when kids read books instead of scrolling, and “likes” and “feed” were usually reserved for your favorite pets? Oh, yes, and there was that quaint old technique that real estate investors used to make money: the BRRRR strategy

Well, guess what? Just like the prehistoric shark in The Meg that is not in fact extinct, but alive and lurking in the deepest depths of the ocean, the BRRRR strategy—with a few modifications—has been living undercover in a few American outposts, biding its time for a comeback.  

In the same way that the Ice Age killed the dinosaurs, the BRRRR strategy met its grim reaper when interest rates shot skyward, making the cherished “buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat” formula about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

However, in some U.S. towns and cities, where typical homes list for under $250,000 and local incomes support the values, BRRRRing, like being a blacksmith or churning butter by hand, can still be practiced by real estate artisans with an appreciation for the old way of doing things.  

Why Sub-$250K Markets Still Matter

Realtor.com recently highlighted 10 metro areas where median listing prices remained under $250,000—roughly $175,000 under the national median. According to the website’s research team, these metros offer a “rare combination of affordability and stability,” meaning that a certain equilibrium exists between incomes and housing prices, which is a rarity in the current cash-strapped housing crisis.

The list of cities and their median listing prices is as follows:

  • Pottsville, Pennsylvania: $159,450 
  • Elmira, New York: $179,900 
  • Wheeling, West Virginia: $179,975
  • Wichita Falls, Texas: $199,900 
  • Ottawa, Illinois: $199,925 
  • St. Joseph, Missouri-Kansas: $227,125
  • Marinette, Wisconsin-Michigan: $227,425 
  • Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa: $242,450 
  • Joplin, Missouri: $247,125
  • Watertown-Fort Drum, New York: $249,950

Earlier this year, Realtor.com compiled another list of sub-$250K markets suitable for first-time homeowners, which included three cities in Florida, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, a firm favorite in both lists. 

Not surprisingly, these pockets of parity are not located in Sunbelt boomtowns or coastal enclaves but are scattered across the Midwest, Northeast, and Appalachia, in areas that have avoided speculative price surges over the last decade, making them stable and predictable and potentially fertile hunting ground for long-term rental investors.

“In these communities, buyers willing to look beyond major metros can still find attainable prices, reasonable competition, and a path to homeownership that remains feasible,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, explains.

BRRRRing in a Higher-Interest Rate World

The needle has moved dramatically away from using the BRRRR strategy in today’s high interest rate environment. While high home prices have impeded investing elsewhere, they are not a major factor in the areas mentioned. However, those pesky interest rates are. 

Out-of-the-box thinking, however, means BRRRRing might be tough but not impossible. Business Insider recently profiled two investors, Connor Swofford and Pieter Louw, from the Buffalo area who scaled to 24 units in two years using the BRRRR method. 

“With a $300,000 or $400,000 property, with closing costs, you have to come up with 60 to 80 grand, which is not very scalable,” Louw, a Buffalo real estate agent, said. 

Both recommend looking for multifamily deals that require minimal rehab and have at least one livable unit to generate rental income. They also suggest tighter underwriting and realistic timelines to bring in projects on budget, leaving room in the deal to repeat.

“Almost every property of ours has had a tenant still living in it, and that tenant is basically able to pay the interest expense as we are rehabbing the property,” explained Swofford. “So, we basically get to semi-rehab it for free in a way.”

When the price points are even lower, in the sub-$250K range, the numbers are more feasible, as long as strict underwriting protocols are maintained. 

Potential BRRRR Case Studies From Current Listings

2044 Mahantongo St, Pottsville, PA 

Zillow listed 2044 Mahantongo St in Pottsville at about $200,000, with a noted previous sale around $138,000 in early 2024, indicating some value increase over a short period. It sold on Dec. 5 for $203,500. 

In a market where the median list price is closer to $150,000, a $200,000 price tag suggests above?average size, condition, or location.

A lighter BRRRR/”slow BRRRR” sketch might assume:

  • Purchase: $195,000 contract after negotiating a modest discount 
  • Rehab: $15,000–$20,000 for updates and tenant?ready improvements, rather than a complete renovation 
  • All?in cost: About $210,000–$215,000 
  • Rent: In a smaller Pennsylvania market like Pottsville, a well?kept three? or four?bedroom single?family might rent in the $1,500–$1,800 range, depending on features and location. 
  • Refinance: If ARV lands modestly higher at $230,000, a 75% LTV loan would be about $172,500. 

Here, the refinance would likely not be a full “money?out” event; rather, it could return part of the initial cash, convert to fixed, long?term debt, and leave a stabilized rental that still produces some margin after debt service and operating expenses.

418 E Norwegian St., Pottsville, PA

Homes.com advertises a nine?bedroom, two?bathroom property at 418 E Norwegian St in Pottsville for about $150,000, calling it a “blank canvas ready for transformation,” noting it was originally two homes combined. That signals a heavier value?add project rather than a turnkey rental.

A high?level BRRRR pro forma might look like this:

  • Purchase: Assume full price at $150,000 due to unique size and potential to re-split into multiple units. 
  • Rehab: If an investor intends to reconfigure it back into two legal units with separate kitchens, updated baths, code?compliant egress, and system upgrades, a working rehab allowance might easily reach $120,000–$150,000 or more, depending on condition. 
  • All?in cost: Roughly $270,000–$300,000 
  • Rent: If repositioned as two four?or five?bedroom units, and assuming each could rent in a similar market at perhaps $1,300–$1,600, gross monthly rent could land in the $2,600–$3,200 range. 
  • Refinance: If the after?repair value appraises at, say, $330,000 based on income and comparable duplexes, 75% LTV would be about $247,500. 

In that case, the refinance could potentially return a large share of initial capital if the project stays near the lower rehab estimate and the appraisal supports the new income. The risk, of course, is that construction overruns or zoning and licensing hurdles push total costs up without a corresponding increase in ARV.

The Cash Flow Conundrum

If you live in these markets, many of you will no doubt run a cash flow analysis and realize that both these projects, at current interest rates, are either negative in cash flow or, at best, break even. So, why go through the hassle and expense of buying these deals in the first place? 

Here’s the reality check: It’s not 2021—and if you wish to perform a BRRRR seance and communicate with an old-school technique from beyond the grave, you will have to get creative with your rental plans to boost cash flow. Common ways to turbocharge revenue include:

  • Renting by the room
  • Mid-term rentals
  • Targeted ROIs to add bedrooms or convert attics or basements
  • Charging for parking/washer and dryer, and pet fees

Final Thoughts

If you have the liquidity to ride out the current interest rate cycle, it makes sense to buy now and be meticulous in your budgeting while exploring ways to increase income. Waiting until rates drop in a meaningful way will see you lost in the buying stampede, rather than coolly moonwalking your way to a mortgage that makes sense.

Much of the scenario for resurrecting an old scaling standby depends on your cash reserves and ability to get comfortable being uncomfortable in the current climate. You’ll realize short-term tax benefits and long-term appreciation, but it’s an all-hands-on-deck approach to investing. No one said it was easy.



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Most high-income professionals and business owners have no idea how much monthly income they actually need to retire—or worse, they’re relying on flawed internet formulas or ballpark guesses.

While $10K/month sounds good, inflation, healthcare, and a longer-than-expected retirement blow up that number.

This is the moment to fix that.

I’ll walk you through the exact steps to calculate your retirement income gap number, understand what your investments actually need to produce, and build a portfolio strategy that’s clear, calm, and compounding—not chaotic.

Most Investors Are Flying Blind

Most investors set passive income goals like they’re picking numbers out of a hat. “I think I’ll need $8K or $10K/month…”

That’s fine—until you realize your actual future need (adjusted for inflation and longevity) is $15K+ and you’ve under-allocated your entire portfolio.

In one case, a tech exec I worked with had a $4,000/month shortfall he didn’t see coming—and it would have wiped out his nest egg by year 13 of retirement.

The biggest threat to your freedom isn’t market volatility. It’s bad math.

What Happens When You Miss the Math

Let’s look at the numbers:

  • $10K/month in today’s dollars = $15K/month in 20 years (accounting for 3% to 4% inflation)
  • That’s $180K/year—not $120K, like most investors assume
  • Subtract Social Security or a pension? Maybe you still need to produce $8K–$10K/month
  • Don’t account for that? You’re looking at an $80,000+ income shortfall — just from miscalculating.

This is why the cash flow gap is the No. 1 threat to most retirement plans. Not taxes. Not the market. Just math.

How to Reverse-Engineer Your Passive Income Plan

Here’s what most people get wrong: They start with investment options and returns—not income clarity.

If you want work-optional living, you need a clear understanding of:

  • What your lifestyle costs now
  • How that number will evolve over time
  • What guaranteed income offsets (like Social Security, pensions, or annuities) exist
  • What your investments actually need to cover—consistently, month after month

This is where I help investors reverse-engineer their cash flow targets, pressure-test their assumptions, and align their portfolio with needs—not wishful thinking.

Step 1: Calculate your lifestyle-based need

Before you can plan your retirement income, you need to understand what your current lifestyle actually costs you. Too many investors skip this and rely on vague estimates—but clarity starts with tracking your actual expenses.

Break your costs into two categories:

  • Fixed: Mortgage, healthcare, insurance, utilities—the non-negotiables
  • Variable: Travel, hobbies, dining, family support—the lifestyle drivers

Take a moment to ask: What number do I truly need every month to feel secure and fulfilled? Write that down.

Step 2: Adjust for inflation (3% to 4%)

Now that you’ve identified your current lifestyle cost, it’s time to project it forward. Inflation silently chips away at your purchasing power every year—and over a 10-to-30-year retirement, the impact is massive.

Use a reliable inflation calculator to estimate your future needs:

  • $10K/month now = $13.4K/month in 10 years
  • $10K/month now = $15.9K/month in 20 years
  • $10K/month now = $24.7K/month in 30 years

These aren’t hypothetical numbers. They’re what your portfolio will have to deliver to maintain your lifestyle. Make sure your math keeps up.

Step 3: Add income offsets (conservatively)

Next, determine how much of your future income will come from guaranteed or predictable sources. These offset what your portfolio needs to generate.

Examples include:

  • Social Security (estimate conservatively based on current statements)
  • Pension payouts (if available)
  • Lifetime annuities or life insurance cash value disbursements
  • Rental income or other recurring business income

Use conservative assumptions. Overestimating these numbers is one of the biggest retirement planning mistakes investors make.

Step 4: Identify your true income gap

Now subtract your income offsets from your inflation-adjusted monthly need. This is your income gap—the actual shortfall your investments must cover to meet your lifestyle goals.

Lifestyle Need – Income Offsets = Income Gap

This number is the centerpiece of your retirement plan. It’s not just what you want your investments to make—it’s what they must make to buy back your time and freedom.

Step 5: Align your portfolio with the three-tier fortress plan

Once you know your true gap, you can build a portfolio that matches it—not based on hype or what’s trending, but on your actual income goals and timeline.

Use this structure:

  • Tier 1: Liquidity & reserves: Cash and equivalents for emergencies or transitions.
  • Tier 2: Income: Debt funds, preferred equity, cash-flowing real estate, and notes that generate reliable monthly income.
  • Tier 3: Growth: Long-term equity investments that build wealth over time, but may not cash flow early.

Debt funds can be especially powerful in Tier 2. With 6% to 10% target returns, short holding periods, and strong downside protection, they help bridge your gap while setting you up for growth.

Investor Archetypes I See Often

Every investor brings their own habits, fears, and decision-making styles to the table. Understanding your own investor archetype can help you avoid common pitfalls and design a portfolio strategy that fits you—not someone else.

The cautious cash holder

You’ve done the hard work of earning and saving, but now your money is sitting idle, losing value to inflation. You’re waiting for the “perfect” opportunity, but in the meantime, you’re missing the power of consistent compounding. 

Inserting a Tier 2 cash flow layer into your portfolio gives you a way to step into yield without sacrificing safety.

The equity overloader

You’ve gone all-in on upside. Maybe it’s multifamily syndications, startups, or stock market growth plays. 

The problem? You’re light on liquidity and cash flow, which makes your portfolio fragile, especially if distributions stop. 

The solution is to rebalance with income-producing assets that fill the gap while your growth deals mature.

The calendar-driven optimizer

You’ve mapped out a goal: retire in five to seven years, go part-time, and hit a net worth target. But the numbers don’t quite pencil. You might be close, but you’re missing timeline alignment between your cash needs and your portfolio’s payout schedule. 

Inserting a Tier 2 cash flow layer helps you lock in income streams to hit your date with confidence.

If any of these sound like you, it’s time to build a strategy that matches your lifestyle, risk tolerance, and retirement runway.

Final Thoughts

You now know more than 90% of investors do—not because you have more money, but because you have better clarity. You’ve looked beyond surface-level advice and started asking deeper, smarter questions about what your future really costs and how to engineer a plan to support it. 

You’ve learned:

  • Why most passive income goals are flawed (and dangerously oversimplified)
  • How to reverse-engineer your retirement need instead of relying on ballpark guesses
  • What your investments need to cover—not just in theory, but in practical, inflation-adjusted numbers
  • How to apply the Tier 2 Fortress Plan to bridge the income gap with confidence and flexibility

But knowing isn’t enough. Clarity is the spark—action is the fuel.

Most people read a blog, nod in agreement, and move on. But investors who achieve true freedom are the ones who take the next step: They build the plan, run the numbers, pressure-test the assumptions, and implement.

This is your opportunity to be one of them. If you want to pressure-test your numbers, see your 10-to-20-year income gap, and discuss a personalized plan, DM me.

Your freedom timeline starts now.

Protect your wealth legacy with an ironclad generational wealth plan

Taxes, insurance, interest, fees, bills…how can you acquire wealth, let alone pass it down, when there are major pitfalls at every turn? In Money for Tomorrow, Whitney will help you build an ironclad wealth plan so you can safeguard your hard-earned wealth and pass it on for generations to come.  



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This article is presented by Connect Invest.

Mid-term rentals—fully furnished rentals with contracts of anywhere between 30 days and nine months—were once seen as a very niche or experimental option for real estate investors. A new report is suggesting that they are becoming more and more mainstream, and a great way to mitigate some of the risks from rising vacancies in the traditional rental sector.

The report, put together by Landing, reveals several intriguing facts about how investors currently perceive mid-term rentals. Most see them as having serious portfolio-expanding potential, with 93% of respondents saying they’re actively seeking new revenue models, and 88% saying they would use mid-term rentals as a way to reduce the impact of vacancies. 

At the same time, many investors perceive major barriers to entry into this segment of the rental market. Nearly half (44%) aren’t completely certain about sufficient demand levels for mid-term rentals, while around a third (38% and 33%, respectively) anticipate problems with logistics or sourcing furnishings. 

Mid-Term Rentals: High Initial Costs, Higher Rewards

Without a doubt, the often substantial investment into high-quality furnishings and appliances is daunting for an investor used to traditional rentals, which are typically leased out unfurnished. Essentially, a mid-term landlord will have to combine the know-how of an Airbnb host with the savvy of an investor. 

Mid-term homes typically attract renters who are professionals. These types of rentals are very popular with remote workers and people required to travel frequently (think visiting academics, doctors, and nurses). 

This category of guest expects a higher standard of accommodation, which may include a comfortable mattress, a high-end washer/dryer combo, a branded coffee maker, etc. Basically, a mid-term renter wants what they’d get from a five-star-rated Airbnb experience, but with the ability to call the place “home” for a few months. 

Mid-term landlords do have some competition from hotel chains like Marriott and Hilton that are beginning to roll out mid-term rental studios of their own. However, what the hotel chains cannot provide is a home-like experience in a multifamily unit grounded within a local community. That’s where mid-term multifamily rentals have the edge: Someone renting an apartment for six months wants more of a homey, community-rooted experience in a beautiful neighborhood, as opposed to a slightly larger hotel room next to a roadside shopping plaza.

The good news for investors is that care taken in location selection and attention to detail really pays off here: Mid-term renters, as per the Landing report, are prepared to pay a premium for the right combination of convenience, comfort, and aesthetics: we’re talking $600-$800 more per month per unit compared to traditional rentals. 

Additionally, in the manner of Airbnb hosts, mid-term landlords must sort out the logistics of maintenance and cleaning between stays, often with a very tight turnaround. This typically means having a property manager on site or nearby. Poor logistics, where the transition between guests is not well-managed, leads to bad reviews and the home potentially standing vacant, which is even more costly for investors than vacancies in traditional units. 

Is a Mid-Term Rental Right for You?

Demand for mid-term rentals is growing rapidly, with an astonishing 94% increase for 30+ day bookings in the U.S. year over year in 2023, according to Key Data. This rental market segment is not yet oversaturated

If you are prepared by carefully researching your mid-term location and the heavy initial investment in operational logistics and higher-quality furnishings, you will be rewarded with impressive ROIs and, in many cases, zero vacancy. Rentals in this category that get everything right are often booked up continuously, providing a steady stream of income and improving your overall cash flow

There is one big but: If you do not have enough starting capital to create a competitive mid-term rental, it is best to stick to more traditional rentals or explore other real estate investing avenues. 

Where mid-term investors often fail is when they start trying to cut corners. That will cost you here in a way that just won’t with a traditional rental. A family settling in somewhere for five to 10 years will invest in their own comfortable mattress and might just replace the bathroom fixtures they dislike if it really matters. A mid-term renter will not—unmet expectations and perceived poor quality often lead to disputes, leases broken prematurely, and those dreaded bad reviews. 

How much money do you need to successfully furnish and operate a mid-term rental? Think in the ballpark of furnishing your own home, preferably on the more luxurious end of the spectrum of what you are prepared to pay. 

There’s Another Way to Invest

If that sounds like it’s too much right now, it probably is. Luckily, you do have other options, like Connect Invest short notes, which you can invest in with as little as $500. With investment durations of six, 12, or 24 months and interest yields of as high as 9%, you can experience the immediate financial growth enjoyed by mid-term rental investors—just without the hefty initial cost for you.



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Home prices are about to “bend”…but will they break? The 2026 housing market could be another year of a correction, but how low could we go?

Last week, we gave our mortgage rate predictions for 2026; this week, we’re focusing on home price forecasts. The housing market is stuck, and something needs to give. Americans can’t afford homes at these high prices, but with so many “locked-in” homeowners, where will the new supply come from? There are a few scenarios that could unfold, with different results that could greatly impact your buying, selling, and wealth-building.

This year feels…different. And while Dave shares his “most likely” scenario for home prices, two other scenarios (“upside” and “downside”) aren’t worth ruling out just yet. One “X factor” could shoot home prices high, with Americans rushing back to buy. But a downside risk could drive our correction even deeper. Dave describes the rental properties he’s looking to buy during this year of opportunity, along with the rules you must follow so you don’t get burned.

Dave:
Will home prices go up or down in 2026? We have seen a historic run of home price appreciation with values rising year after year, even as mortgage rates have remained high. But will that continue next year or will we see prices flatten or even decrease in the year to come? Today I’m giving you my 2026 home price forecast. Hey everyone, welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer. Excited to have you here for what is simultaneously both my favorite and least favorite show of the year predictions about the next year. I genuinely enjoy and love the data analysis and research that goes into making these predictions, and since I started doing this back in 2022, I’ve been pretty accurately in calling the direction of the housing market, but at the same time, it’s a little nerve wracking and difficult to put these predictions out in public, especially this year when there’s less data available due to the recent government shutdown.
But despite those limitations, I choose to make these predictions for you every year because having an idea of where the market is heading, even if it’s not a hundred percent accurate as no forecast is, this is still crucial as an investor because you invest differently in a rapidly appreciating market than you do in a flat or a correcting market. And don’t get me wrong, you can invest in any kind of market, but you do need to plan accordingly, and that’s what I’ll help you do today. By the end of this episode, you’ll know where the market is likely to go, what things to watch for in case things start to change, and how to build your portfolio accordingly in 2026. Let’s do it. So making predictions about the housing market is difficult because the housing market is driven by so many different variables. On one side, you have all these things that impact demand, how many people want to buy homes.
These are things like demographics, immigration, cultural shifts, domestic migration, investor activity and so on. Then you have this whole other set of variables that impact the supply side, like the lock-in effect construction trends, a longstanding shortage in homes in the United States and so on. But to me, and I’ve been on this trend for a while now, affordability is the number one variable driving the market these days. Now, why this variable among all the other ones out there? Well, we have hit an absolute wall in terms of affordability. We are near 40 year lows. And by the way, if you haven’t heard this term before in context of the housing market, it just means how easily the average American can buy the average priced home, and that’s at 40 year lows. It hasn’t been since the early 19 that has been this difficult for the average American to buy homes.
Now this is really crucial because what has not changed is that people do want to buy homes. There is still desire to buy homes, but when you look at demand this economic term demand, it’s not just desire, it’s desire and the ability to pay for it, we still have the desire side. The issue is that most Americans just cannot afford it, and in my view, if that doesn’t change, if affordability doesn’t move, not much is going to change in the housing market, but if affordability improves, so will the market. So affordability, this key thing is actually made up of three individual variables. We have home prices. How much do homes actually cost? That should make sense. We have mortgage rates because the majority of homes are purchased with a mortgage, and so this matters a lot and we also have wages. How much are people earning?
So those are the three things and we’re going to break each of them down one by one. So the first factor in affordability is mortgage rates. I did a whole episode about that, but the TLDR was that, although I think they could come down a little on average next year, I don’t think they’re going to move that much. So I think it could modestly help affordability, but it’s probably not going to be the thing that really changes the housing market. The second one is wages and real wage growth can improve affordability. Real wages, if you haven’t heard this term, it’s basically just a question of are incomes rising faster than inflation? If the answer to that is yes, you have positive real wage growth, the answer to that is no. You have negative real wage growth. But luckily right now, one of the bright spots for the economy in recent years since 2022 or so is that we have had real wage growth wages in America.
Incomes are growing faster than inflation, which means your purchasing power is going up. I hope that will stay up, but I think it’s going to slow in the next year. We’ve seen inflation up to about 3%. The job market is definitely weakening. That reduces leverage and salary negotiations, and I think wage growth will slow. But the thing about the housing market and how this relates to our strategy as investors is that even in the best times wage growth takes time to really impact affordability. So although wage growth does really matter, it’s probably not a big factor in 26. So if rates aren’t going to change that much in my mind, in our base case and real wages are not going to impact affordability that much, does that mean that the housing market is doomed to have another year like we had this year where things are pretty slow and stuck maybe, but we still have one more variable, which is housing prices, which is why my base case for next year is for home prices to be flat or maybe down just modestly if you want some actual numbers.
I like to predict a range and a direction because I think as real estate investors, it actually hurts us to obsess about is it up 1% or 2%? I think we actually should just say, Hey, it’s up modestly, it’s down modestly, it’s flat this year. It’s going to go up a lot. There’s going to be a crash. Those kinds of directional indicators I think are what’s really important and what I see is that home prices in 2026 are going to be between negative 4% and positive 2%. You could call this flat if you want. I am personally leaning more towards the negative side right now. Again, we don’t have data from the last couple of months, but the way the trends are going, I think if I had to pick where we’ll be a year from now, I’d say negative one, negative 2% year over year growth.
So you might be surprised hearing me say this because all previous years I’ve said we’ve been flat or up. I genuinely believe that and that was what actually came to be. But this year I see that changing. I just want to say having these kinds of declines, this isn’t crazy. Seeing modest declines in prices isn’t a crash. It’s not even unusual. It is a normal correction and I should probably mention a buying opportunity. And that said, I am a little more pessimistic I think than other forecasters. I see Zillow at plus 1%. Some others are near flat, but most of them are modestly positive, but we’re all still generally in the same range. Honestly, being plus 1% minus 1%, it’s kind of flat. So that’s what most people are saying, and I think the takeaway here, whether you think it’s plus 1% or minus 2% is the same appreciation is going to be slow at best, it might be negative.
We can’t know right now with the little data that we have, but we have to not count on appreciation. I think that’s the main takeaway for us as real estate investors. Maybe we’ll get 1%. That would be great. Maybe you’ll be negative 1%. Honestly, whatever. If you’re counting for flat or you are not counting on appreciation when you’re underwriting your deals, you can still invest in this market. But that’s the main takeaway I want you all to have right now is that you should not assume you are going to get appreciation in 2026. So that’s my belief about what’s going on in terms of nominal prices. It’s going to get a little wonky, but stay with me. Nominal prices means not inflation adjusted. This is the price that you see on paper. This is the price that you see on Zillow. People are split on whether that’s going to be up a little bit down a little bit, but what almost every forecast that I believe in that I think is reputable, all of them agree that real prices are going to be negative.
And again, real in economic terms just means inflation adjusted. So every forecast I see believes that compared to inflation, home prices are going to go down. So even if prices on paper go up 1%, but inflation stays at 3%, then real home prices have declined 2% real prices are down. And even though I’m saying I think the most likely scenarios that nominal prices are down next year, I feel much more confident that real prices will be down in 2026. That much seems pretty clear to me. So that’s my base case. It’s what I’ve called the great stall in recent months have you’ve listened to the podcast and it’s still what I think is the highest probability of happening next year because affordability is too low. Rates will come down a little bit, I think, but not that much. Wages aren’t really going to help us one way or another, and prices, if they flatten or modestly decline, that’s how we get into the stall period where affordability gradually gets restored to the housing market.
That is the base case, but I should say that when I make these forecasts, I like to be honest about my confidence level and I just want to say that this year it is lower than previous years. Last year I felt really confident about what I said was going to happen. I was pretty accurate. This year, I think the great stall is probably a 50 ish, maybe 60% probability, which means that we have a 40 or 50% chance that something else could happen. And I’ll give you some alternative forecasts and predictions right after this break. Running your real estate business doesn’t have to feel like juggling five different tools with simply, you can pull motivated seller list, skip trace them instantly for free and reach out with calls or texts all from one streamlined platform, the real magic AI agents that answer inbound calls, follow up with prospects and even grade your conversations so you know where you stand. That means less time on busywork and more time closing deals. Start your free trial and lock in 50% off your first month at reim.com/biggerpockets. That’s R-E-S-I-M-P-L i.com/biggerpockets.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer talking about home price predictions for 2026. Before the break, I shared with you my base case. It’s what I think is the most likely scenario to happen next year, and that’s having pretty flat or maybe modestly declining nominal home prices next year, and I think pretty confident that real home prices are going to go down unless one of these other X factors happen, which is what we’re about to talk about. So what else could happen in the housing market? To me, it still all comes down to affordability. As you’ll remember, my base case is saying affordability not going to change that much. It’s just going to gradually improve. But what happens if it goes up a ton? What if affordability gets way better? What if it goes down and actually get worse? Are there scenarios where affordability really does move more than my base case?
Yes, absolutely that is possible. I don’t think it’s the most likely thing to happen, but I want you to understand all of the different scenarios that could play out next year. And to me, there is one really big X factor that I am going to be keeping a very close eye on next year because it could cause what is known as a melt up, basically a huge surge in home pricing. So when I’m asking, could affordability get much better and send prices up, yes, there are a few routes to that, but to me, the most compelling one, the thing I’m going to watch most closely is something called quantitative easing. I went into this a lot in the episode predicting mortgage rates, so you can listen to that again, but if you missed it, it’s basically the Fed using one of its emergency tools to get mortgage rates down into the mid or low fives, maybe even lower, we don’t know, quantitative easing.
It’s basically they go out and frankly print money to create demand for mortgage backed securities and bonds. This pushes down yields that pushes down mortgage rates, and that could increase the demand in the housing market a lot, which could potentially push up prices. Hopefully that makes sense, right? Because I don’t believe regardless of what happens, the fed cuts rates a bunch of times. I still don’t think without quantitative easing, we are getting to the magic mortgage rate that we need in the United States to unlock the housing market research by Zillow. John Burns real estate, a couple different economics firms have all gone into this and they say that the magic number you need to get to get people off the sidelines to free up inventory to restore transaction volume to the market is like somewhere between five and five and a half percent. I just don’t see that happening next year without quantitative easing.
So the big question for 2026 in the housing market to me is will there be quantitative easing? And frankly, I think the chances of it happening are going up like every single week right now, the Trump administration has continued to prioritize affordability, particularly in the housing market, and as we’ve seen other parts of the economy start to falter and weaken like the labor market, I think the chance that the Fed dips into its toolbox to stimulate the economy continues to go up. Now, I don’t think this will happen right away in 2026. I think the earliest it will probably happen is in May because President Trump, he actually the other day said he already knows who he wants to name fed chair, but he can’t do that until Jerome Powell’s term is up in May of 2026. So that’s when we would probably seriously start looking for this to happen.
I don’t know if it’ll happen on day one, but it might happen sometime after May. So if that does happen, and I call this the upside case, you have your base case, which is what you think is most likely, is there a more positive case? That’s usually called an upside case. So my upside case for is we get quantitative easing, affordability improves, and then what? In that case, I think we see prices go up somewhere maybe between two and 6%, maybe up to seven if they really get rates down into the fives, maybe up to 7% if they get mortgage rates down in the fours. But that seems unlikely, and that’s what I see happening. Now, I know a lot of people are saying if there’s quantitative easing, if the fed cuts rates, we’re going to see an explosion in appreciation, they’re going to go up 10%.
Again during COVID, I don’t buy that personally because we know that when rates went up, not only did it drive down demand, but it drove down supply as well, right? That’s the lock-in effect. That’s why prices haven’t fallen because low affordability doesn’t just impact demand, it impacts supply at the same time, both of them are low right now. So in my opinion, if rates come down, yeah, it’s going to bring back demand, but it is also going to bring back supply. This will break the lock-in effect. So more people will be listing their properties for sale. More people will be looking to move, and so in this quantitative easing scenario that we’re talking about, I think the real winner is going to be transaction volume. We are going to see more homes bought and sold. That will help, and there will likely be upward pressure on prices, but not like COVID.
That is unusual. Seeing 10% appreciation might be a once in a lifetime thing that we don’t see again for generations. Of course, if they drop rates down to 2% or 3%, maybe that will happen, but I think that is not the case even if there’s quantitative easing. So I would expect positive appreciation in the scenario, good appreciation, really good for investors, but nothing crazy COVID. The other thing I should mention is that if this happens, it will probably happen amongst a backdrop of a slower economy. So people may not want to make huge economic decisions like buying a house when they’re fearful about their job. So we have to temper our expectations for what might happen if there is quantitative easing. Now, I told you my base case, I think that’s about a 50, 60% chance of happening. When we talk about the upside cases, quantitative easing, I think it’s getting more likely.
I actually think it’s about a 30% chance that this happens, and we’ll talk about how to account for that in your own investing in just a minute. But I also want to talk about downside because yes, there is a chance that affordability gets better. There is also a chance that affordability gets worse. How does that happen? Well, it probably happens if inflation stays high, right? If inflation goes up, it’s been going up four months in a row. It is nowhere near where we were in 20 21, 20 22. So people overuse the word hyperinflation a lot In this country, 3% is not hyperinflation. Four months in a row of growth is not hyperinflation. We are nowhere near that. But if inflation continues to creep up and mortgage rates go back up, I think there is more downside. I’m not saying that’s going to be a full on crash, but I think there’s more downside below one to 2%, right?
Could a crash happen and it really get bad? Sure, but on top of rates staying high, what we need to see is force selling, right? We’ve talked about this on the show, but the thing that takes a correction to a crash is when homeowners are no longer able to afford their mortgages and they’re forced to put their homes on the market to avoid foreclosure or as part of a foreclosure. Now, right now, delinquencies, they’re up a little bit, but they’re still very low by historic standards. They’re below pre pandemic levels. But what I’m saying is that there is no evidence that a crash is likely at this point. If people’s predictions about AI just destroying the labor market come true, and we see unemployment go up to 10%, yeah, there is a chance that there is a real estate crash, but that still remains unlikely.
I think even in this scenario, maybe prices drop five to 10%. I have a really hard time, even in a downside case, imagining more than a 10% drop in 2026. It seems just extremely unlikely to me. But the chance that we see 5% declines, 7% declines low, but I’d say it’s maybe a 10% chance because we just don’t know. There could be some black swan event that we don’t see coming that negatively impacts the housing market. We always have to remember, even though we can’t predict them, we have to remember that these things exist. That is part of being an investor, and we can’t just ignore them and pretend that they don’t happen. They are out there. So the question then is what do you do? How do you use this information where I’ve just said, yeah, I have a base case, but it’s maybe 50, 60% likelihood there’s a 40% chance that something totally different happens. How do you invest in that kind of market? I’ll tell you how right after this break.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer, sharing with you my predictions and forecast for 2026. So far, I’ve told you about my base case, which is the great stall, the potential for quantitative easing to bring us into an upside case and a scenario where the labor market really breaks and inflation stays high, where maybe we have more downside. These are obviously three pretty different scenarios. So the question is how do you invest in an era of uncertainty and low confidence? How do we invest when there are multiple likely outcomes? There’s no right answer to this, but I will tell you how I am doing it. I am first and foremost preparing for the great stall. I think that is the most likely scenario, and the whole idea of making forecast is to not get paralyzed by all the different outcomes, but to have a plan but to remain somewhat flexible.
So I’m going to plan for the great stall because I know this might seem counterintuitive, but I actually think it could be a great time to buy, right? If we are in a scenario where prices are flat or going down on average, that means you can get great assets at a discount. Now, of course, in these kinds of scenarios, there’s also the risk that you might buy a property and the value of that property goes down more once you buy it. But in the great stall, the downside risk of that is not so great. And if you use tactics like buying deep or value add investing, you can mitigate that risk. Now seeing this opportunity, wanting to pursue that, at the same time I’m protecting myself against those possible declines in values. Like I said, I am going to underwrite super conservatively. I am being very, very picky right now.
I am being patient. I will only buy sure things, only buy excellent assets, things I would want to own, even if prices went down for a year or two after I bought them. Those things absolutely exist a hundred percent, and they’ll become easier to find and buy during the great stall. That is one of the benefits of this market is that more opportunity will exist, and by doing this, by pursuing great assets that I can get at a discount, but while simultaneously protecting myself against downside risk, I am also positioning myself to take advantage if that melt up happens. This is the way that you are actually planning for all three scenarios. You plan for flat, you protect against downside, but at the same time, you need to make sure that you are in the market in case the upside case happens to take advantage of the growth that could come from that.
This to me covers all the bases and it’s entirely possible. So let’s talk a little bit more just specifics about what this looks like. I am going to focus only on assets that I want to hold for a long time. I want to take a long term mindset. When I look at a property right now, I’m thinking, do I want to own this five years from now? Do I want to own it 10 years from now? And if the answer to that is no, I’m not really interested in it, even if I think it’s going to go up in the next couple of years, maybe there’s something great happening in the neighborhood or you’re buying it below comps. For me, I only want to buy things that I’m going to hold onto for a long time. That’s the number one thing. Number two, I want cashflow within a year to make sure I can hold onto it for five or 10 years.
Now, we’ve done a bunch of episodes about this recently. I really recommend you listen to them, but you need cashflow positive within the first year. One year is really not some magical number, but I basically mean at stabilization a lot of times now, when you go out and buy a property with current rents, the current condition of the property, it’s not going to cashflow well, if you’re going to do value add, if you’re going to upgrade them, if you’re going to make rents up to market rate, that’s when you need positive cashflow. If you can’t get to positive cashflow after stabilization, do not buy it. I know some people say appreciation’s more important. I don’t think so in this market. I just told you I don’t think appreciation’s coming next year. So make sure you get cashflow so you can hold onto that property so that when appreciation does come, because it will come back when it comes back that you’re in the market, you’re already making cashflow, you’re getting those tax benefits, you’re getting that amortization, you’re in the market and you’re comfortably holding onto them.
That’s what cashflow does for you. Next, I am adjusting my mindset to care less about short-term returns. Some people might disagree with this, that’s fine, but I am saying I still need cashflow. I still need the tax benefits. I still need amortization. So I’m not saying I’m getting no short-term returns. Those three things alone should probably beat the average of the s and p 500 by themselves without appreciation. So you can still get seven, 10, 12% without appreciation. Not to mention value add. You should still be able to do that, but by expectation for appreciation, market appreciation, where macroeconomic forces push up the price of housing, I have very low expectations for that for the next few years. I have low expectations for rent growth over the next few years. I could be wrong about that, but I don’t want to account on that. I don’t want to assume that because no one knows.
It’s super uncertain. I’m sorry. I know some people are going to say it’s going to go up, it’s coming back next year. We don’t know. And that’s okay. If you buy according to the way I’m telling you by being patient, by being picky, by having conservative estimates, when you underwrite your deals, you can still find great deals, but you have to follow an approach similar to this. I’m not saying you have to do everything exactly the same as me, but having this kind of mindset will help you in this era of investing, this is the approach that I am going to pursue. Now, I understand that some people are thinking Now, why not wait, if there is this flat period that we’re going to be in, why not? Wait? I mean, you could, but what if that upside case happens and you miss out on it?
That wouldn’t be good, right? The value of real estate is being in the market for a long time. So if there are good deals that produce cashflow that are going to produce a 7, 8, 10, 12% return as good as the average in the stock market in a bad year, if you’re going to get that in a bad year and you can buy properties that you want to own for 10 plus years, why would you not buy it now? You’ll still get cashflow. You’ll get amortization and tax benefits. You’ll be able to do value add and all of that, even if appreciation is slow. You’ll also start paying down your mortgage, which means that your benefits of amortization get better year after year after year, and you’ll be learning and growing. So to me, this approach gives you a little bit of everything. That’s how personally I am going to approach a year where there is frankly a lot of uncertainty.
As I’ve shared with you, I think the most probable outcome is the great stall. That’s what I’m planning for. But I just want to be honest with you. I don’t want to pretend I know everything. I want to be honest that there’s probably a 40% chance that something else happens, that there is a melt up, or 30% chance is my rough estimate of that, or a more significant client. I think that’s really only about a 10% chance, but it is still absolutely there. Even with all of that uncertainty, there are very proven ways to invest in real estate and to continue moving yourself along the path towards financial freedom. If you are willing to set your expectations appropriately, to be patient, to be conservative in your investing, that will benefit you over the long run and even in the next year. So that’s my approach, and hopefully this helps you as you start formulating your own strategy and tactics heading into 2026. That’s what we got for you guys today. I would love to hear your forecast. What do you think is most likely to happen in 2026? Please let me know in the comments. Thank you all so much for listening. We’ll see you next time.

 

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The saying “give the people what they want” resonates for a reason. In real estate, what people want—tenants, specifically—is low rent. 

That doesn’t always gel with landlords who want higher rents to cover expenses and turn a profit. However, as counterintuitive as it may seem, there are places where rents of $1,000 or less give both landlords and tenants some satisfaction.

In the South and Midwest, $1,000 a month is not uncommon, according to Zillow research. The data and analytics team at the listing giant found that 13 metro areas among the 100 largest in the U.S. have more than one-third of apartment listings priced below $1,000. That’s in direct contrast to popular East Coast markets such as New York, Boston, Washington, D.C., and Miami, where generally, less than 2% of apartments rent for under $1,000/month. 

However, in smaller metros like Wichita, Kansas, and McAllen, Texas, this number is over 50%. In Little Rock, Arkansas, Toledo, Ohio, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, it is nearly that. 

In Wichita, the $1,000 rents are made possible by the affordability of some houses. This two-bedroom, two-bathroom home, which needs minor repairs (the third bedroom is available for a flipper), is currently listed for $92,000—with an estimated PITI payment of $604/month.  

Another two-bedroom, one-bathroom home, in need of light rehab, is available for $80,000, with an estimated PITI payment of $525/month. Buying this type of home, fixing it up, and renting it out would allow an investor to quickly build a portfolio of cash-flowing rentals. If investors want to spend more money in exchange for higher rents, the potential selection options increase. 

However, there are many factors beyond low prices and rents to consider when determining the viability of a rental investment, as we’ll see.

Bucking the Trend

These smaller metros in the South and Midwest buck the trend for much of the nation, which is mired in an affordability crisis. 

“?The thing that I think we learned is that federal housing policy is stuck in a really weak equilibrium,” Jared Bernstein, who led President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told Ezra Klein of the New York Times. “There is just far too little asked of cities and states. They won’t do much to push back on the barriers that are blocking affordable housing.”

While the explosive rent growth of the last decade—rising 50% between 2015 and 2025 in many markets—is not debatable, neither is the rising cost of being a landlord. Insurance, utilities, and financing have also seen sharp spikes, eating into a landlord’s bottom line. According to property management platform Baseline, 85% of landlords increased rents in 2024 to offset operational expenses, with one-third of these raising them by 6% to 10%. 

All this makes the $1,000 rental scenario all the more astounding. It’s like time-traveling to a bygone era.

People Are Moving Because of Housing Costs

The cost of housing is the primary reason Americans move, according to MoveBuddha. Unsurprisingly, they’re heading to the Midwest or South, making it a good place for real estate investors with limited budgets who want to start building their portfolios.

Some of MoveBuddha’s findings are as follows:

States

  • In 2025, South Carolina had twice as many people moving there as leaving.
  • Some states were markedly up on 2024’s stats as far as inbound searches go. Wisconsin (+79%), Mississippi (+55%), and Minnesota (+40%) were among the most prominent.
  • In terms of interest in total inbound migration, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee had the highest online search volume.

Cities

  • The top city for moves in 2025 is Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with 2.41 inbound moves for every outbound one, fueled by Baby Boomer retirement interest.
  • Many of the inbound cities are mid-sized or retirement-friendly areas, with smaller, affordable communities.

Strategies for Investors to Build a Low-Cost, Low-Rent Investment Portfolio

Target the right markets

This might seem obvious. However, it’s easy to be led astray. Use the following to help in your research:

  • Median rents below $1,200
  • Steady wage growth
  • High renter populations
  • A surplus or stabilizing supply of homes

Examples: 

  • Midwest college towns
  • Secondary Sunbelt metros
  • Rural-adjacent Southern metros
  • Older inner-ring suburbs 

Use data tools like:

Buy below replacement costs, and don’t over-renovate

Affordable rentals work best when you are competing with land costs higher than what you will pay. The following are good examples:

  • Older single-family homes
  • Small duplexes and triplexes
  • “Ugly” but structurally sound properties
  • Houses requiring a rehab rather than a complete renovation
  • If you buy low, avoid overspending on renovation so you can still cash flow. “Low cost,” “durable,” and “practical” are keywords.

Research operating costs

Low-priced homes are not much use if they come with high property taxes and insurance. Sometimes homes are priced low for a reason: No one is buying them. 

Don’t believe the agent or wholesaler’s hype. Do your own research.

Screen for stability

Just because your rents are low doesn’t mean you have to be in a sketchy neighborhood, relying on increasingly imperiled government programs for your rental incomes. Plenty of rock-solid tenants live in working-class neighborhoods. Look for those who prioritize affordability and stability, as they are likely to stick around, and you avoid turnover churn. The returns might not be earth-shattering, but over time, these properties can be winners.

A reliable tenant pool can come from:

  • Teachers
  • Hospital staff
  • Government workers
  • Long-term service sector employees
  • Seniors on fixed incomes

Let rents catch inflation

Even if you start renting for below $1,000, modest 2% to 4% annual increases, coupled with low vacancy, stable tenants, and basic maintenance, can yield strong long-term growth when tax advantages, debt paydown, and appreciation are factored in. These workhorse properties have made many investors wealthy over time.         

Final Thoughts

All this said, just because a city offers low housing costs and rents doesn’t automatically mean you should invest there. Case in point: Wichita, Kansas, which this year had more people leaving than coming in, according to MoveBuddha data, despite being highlighted by Zillow Research.

So, in determining a good place to invest, do an overall analysis that factors in house prices, rents, net population inflows and outflows, and expenses. Analyze data regarding:

  • Jobs
  • Insurance
  • The attraction for retirees (low state income taxes, warm weather, community activities and amenities, and space—often found outside larger metro areas)
  • Development projects
  • Crime stats
  • Transportation





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This article is presented by Connect Invest.

The multifamily real estate market has, without a doubt, been through some tough times over the past few years. Rising interest rates and a falling demand following a multifamily building boom compounded to make multifamily less of a safe investment than it once was. 

However, according to the most recent CBRE Multifamily Underwriting Survey, there are signs that confidence is returning to this segment of the real estate market. 

What is behind the optimistic sentiment uptick, and should this confidence translate into multifamily investment action if you’ve erred on the side of caution so far?

Rate Cuts + Expected Surge in Renters = Improved Buyer Sentiment

The latest federal interest rate cuts in September and October are a major factor in the survey’s optimistic prognosis. In Q3, 64% of core-asset buyers expressed a positive outlook, as opposed to just 57% in Q2. Value-add buyers had the highest levels of confidence at 70%, up from 62% in Q2. 

Lower interest rates make any real estate investment more viable, and they are particularly helpful to investors who cannot rely on sharp rental growth, as is the case in the current climate. Investors are feeling confident despite the fact that underwriting assumptions of annual asking rent growth for value-add properties actually decreased in Q3, to 3.2%. 

Rent growth deceleration is by now a stable trend. Internal rate of return (IRR) targets have been going down for value-add assets for seven consecutive quarters. For core assets, underwriting rental growth predictions for the next three years are at a modest 2.8%. 

Overall, the actual market figures are pretty stable, with mostly unremarkable variations in both going-in and exit cap rates

The point is that the direction is positive, with the average multifamily going-in rate showing a decrease of two basis points. The possibility of another interest rate cut in December is, without a doubt, keeping the mood buoyant in anticipation of further incremental cap rate compression.

Southern Demographics Boosting Investor Confidence

Interest rates, as much of an immediate relief as they are, do not sway markets alone. So, what’s keeping buyer sentiment buoyant? 

For one, those positive sentiment percentages are boosted by a trend-bucking increase in IRR targets for core assets in Sunbelt markets, notably in places like Dallas and Austin—the very locations that have experienced the most dramatic ups and downs in their respective multifamily sectors over the past few years. An unprecedented increase in demand following the much-documented “Sunbelt Surge” resulted in a construction boom, which eventually dampened demand (and rental prices). 

Why, then, despite continued rental growth deceleration and increased construction, are investors feeling positive? Because it now appears that the localized construction booms have not fixed the housing shortage in these—or any other—regions. 

According to JLL, there is a shortage of 3.5 million housing units in the U.S. This, combined with an unprecedentedly high (and rising) cost of homeownership, means that many would-be homeowners will remain renters in 2026. This is causing the uptick in multifamily investor confidence.

Paradoxically, the new multifamily construction that has decelerated rental growth has also made renting a more affordable and therefore attractive option for many people. Rather than buying an overly expensive home with an exorbitant mortgage (interest rates are still high), many renters are expected to renew their leases instead. 

Investors are, correctly, banking not on sharp rental growth, but on steady demand. And current demographic statistics are showing that the South in particular, is experiencing a population boom, with suburban Dallas emerging as the fastest-growing city in 2024. 

Demographics are a long game, but investors cannot ignore the shorter-term moving trends that can unfold over a few short years—as was notably the case with the boom-and-bust fate of Austin during the past five years. Currently, people are moving South more than to other U.S. regions, but we need to be more specific here: Renters are moving not just anywhere in the South, but to attractive job hubs like Miami and Dallas. 

Bidding Activity Also Up

Rising investor confidence is reflected not just in percentages of positive sentiment but also in bidding activity, which is showing an uptick, especially in the multifamily sector, according to JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index.

“As capital deployment accelerated during the third quarter, institutional investors are signaling increased confidence in the market, even as uncertainty persists,” said Richard Bloxam, CEO of capital markets at JLL, in a press release. “We expect business confidence will continue to improve and pave the way for continued capital flow growth into 2026.”

Get In on These Trends With Connect Invest

Want to make the most of multifamily real estate investing while mitigating some of those market uncertainties? When you invest with Connect Invest, you’re investing in high-yield, short-term investments across a diversified portfolio of residential and commercial real estate. That way, you can maximize the advantage from current market trends—without compromising your long-term portfolio health.



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This article is presented by Connect Invest.

“Predictable” isn’t exactly the most exciting qualifier for a real estate market, but it’s the exact word that investors in the multifamily sector have been longing to hear for years. The era of huge market upheavals brought by the pandemic seems to be finally, truly over, with rent growth and supply-and-demand balance returning to pre-pandemic patterns. 

It can be difficult to accept, but the fact is that the 2% rent growth rate by 2027—a prediction from Yardi Matrix executives Jeff Adler and Paul Fiorilla—is in line with normal, pre-pandemic rates. In fact, this is what the real estate market should look like. Here’s why.

Why “Slow But Stable” Isn’t a Bad Thing

The double-digit growth rates of 2021 will not return again; these were a historical anomaly brought about by a singular convergence of factors, namely: 

  • Pent-up demand from people who could not buy a home during lockdowns.
  • An unprecedented housing shortage caused by people not selling, and a lack of building supplies disrupting new construction.
  • Brand-new migration patterns creating housing hot spots.

None of these conditions were ever meant to last, but many investors understandably were building their business strategy around these anomalous market spikes. For a few years, an investment plan along the lines of “This metro area has the highest rental growth right now” could deliver impressive short-term results. 

What was wrong with this picture? Nothing, on the surface of it, in terms of aligning your strategy with market conditions. But there was another variable aside from rental growth fluctuations that began creating an imbalance: construction. 

Construction booms inevitably cooled red-hot markets, most notably Austin’s, which “went from red-hot to best avoided in the blink of an eye,” according to Bloomberg, as a direct result of its post-pandemic-era construction surge.

It seems like there’s nothing positive here, but there is. 

We know that new construction lowers the overall cost of housing across a metro area, including old inventory. This kick-starts a game of musical chairs of sorts: An overall fall in home prices means that some existing tenants will move out and become homeowners. Landlords sitting on empty units then often have to lower rents in order to fill vacancies, meaning that lower-income residents can move in. Theoretically, this can continue indefinitely. 

To succeed long term, an investor needs a very different landscape: Healthy, steady demand for rental units in areas where the overall ratio of homeowners to renters is unlikely to change dramatically any time soon. To put it simply, you want an area where people are comfortable enough renting and are, say, five to 10 years away from buying a home. This can change much faster in boom-and-bust areas, where a surplus of new construction suddenly makes homes more affordable and increases vacancies at an unusual rate.

Now that construction and demand are coming into alignment, as per the Yardi report, investors can focus on refining more traditional-looking business plans and investing in areas with stable, predictable renter population movements rather than in migratory spikes. You might only be looking at 2% rent growth for the foreseeable future, but you’re also not looking at having to deal with unexpected multiunit vacancies. 

What Investors Need to Think About in 2026 and Beyond

According to the Yardi report, as markets return to normal, investors will need to adjust their strategy. What that looks like in practice is an emphasis on cost control in existing markets, as opposed to scouting out new ones. 

The biggest challenge investors will face is shrinking margins amid high operational costs, especially insurance. Testing prospective investment locations for stable occupancy rates will be paramount. According to CRE, “Household formation, while soft in the near term, is expected to rebound mid-decade, offering a firmer demand base just as new inventory comes online.” 

The questions will be: Where do these newly formed households want to stay until (and if) they are in a position to buy? Where do families renew their leases consistently, instead of passing through and moving on? 

In many ways, investors will have to go back to the strategy drawing board, performing meticulous research into each potential lead and assuming that margins will be very tight. 

Another Investment Option

Don’t want to deal with all that? You have other options. For example, you can invest in real estate short notes with Connect Invest. Essentially, you’ll be investing in a diversified portfolio of real estate at every stage of construction: no need to worry about picking the right metro area! 

What’s even better is you can lock in at 7.5%-9% interest earned on your investment, with a minimum investment amount of as little as $500. 

You can invest for a period of six, 12, or 24 months, which mitigates the risk from that ever-present potential of market shifts. It’s a great way to dip your toes in the water and find out if real estate investing can work for you without having to do all that work yourself.



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