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Developers built nearly 600,000 apartment units last year, setting a new record. That glut of new supply, coupled with fears over trade war-induced inflation and recession, has caused rents to slow, stall, or even drop in 2025. 

In fact, 73 cities across the country have seen rents fall in the first five months of the year. Here’s where they are, a deeper dive into what’s causing rents to fall, and the outlook for rents moving forward. 

Cities With Falling Rents

With a few exceptions, cities with falling rents have mostly clustered in the Sunbelt, Northeast, and Midwest. 

While all real estate is local, the nationwide trend has certainly moved in renters’ favor. On its Rent Manager overview, Zillow now shows the average rent nationwide has dropped by $30 over the last year. 

Softening rental markets can ding investors in other ways, too. Often, property managers have to offer incentives to lure new renters and keep occupancy strong. While most of the multifamily investments we’ve gone in on through the co-investing club have avoided it, we have seen a couple of properties that have had to boost incentives. 

For reference, here are the 20 cities where rents have fallen the most in 2025:

City Average Rent 2025 Rent Decline
1. Athens, OH $802 -8.51%
2. The Villages, FL $2,007 -7.21%
3. Sunbury, PA $904 -6.73%
4. Pullman, WA $1,436 -5.94%
5. Naples, FL $2,833 -5.37%
6. Sevierville, TN $1,736 -5.33%
7. Key West, FL $3,887 -5.31%
8. Fond du Lac, WI $1,045 -5.02%
9. Edwards, CO $3,864 -4.24%
10. Bay City, MI $1,240 -3.74%
11. Cortland, NY $1,292 -3.71%
12. Georgetown, SC $2,168 -3.52%
13. Mount Pleasant, MI $1,120 -3.39%
14. Blacksburg, VA $1,767 -3.36%
15. Freeport, IL $793 -2.98%
16. Hot Springs, AR $1,385 -2.83%
17. Clearlake, CA $1,813 -2.82%
18. Lebanon, PA $1,388 -2.81%
19. Hattiesburg, MS $1,369 -2.72%
20. Mount Vernon, WA $2,161 -2.42%

What’s Causing Rents to Drop?

Markets move in cycles, and rents surged after the pandemic, after remaining artificially locked due to eviction moratoriums. That post-pandemic surge has slowed to a trickle in 2025, and a drought in many markets. 

Glut of new supply

As touched upon, some markets got flooded with new rental inventory. Housing starts for multifamily properties reached a monthly low of 233 in April 2020, at “peak pandemic panic.” Over the next two years, they nearly tripled to 615 by November 2022. 

Many of those projects completed in 2024 are coming onto the market now in 2025. 

Softening labor market

As of this writing, the latest Labor Department data saw the four-week moving average of jobless claims reach the highest level since August 2023. 

Fewer employers are hiring, and fewer workers are quitting. There’s so much uncertainty in the economy between trade wars, tariffs, and wild public policy swings in Washington, D.C. that employers and employees alike are treading carefully. 

Less confident workers make more conservative renters, who are less willing to splurge on higher rents. 

Consumer spending pullback

It forms a broader trend of consumers pulling back in general. Everyone appears to be holding their breath, waiting to see what comes next. And in doing so, they’re spending less and hoarding more cash. 

While it’s hard to measure “vibes,” the Consumer Confidence Index fell 11.3% from June 2024 to June 2025. 

Implications for Income Investors

Kapil Singla, an investor with Bright Future Home Buyers in Birmingham, tells BiggerPockets that even slight rent drops mean tenants have more negotiating power and time to review listings. “For investors, it is a clear market signal to review pricing, boost unit appeal, and position yourself as the best option nearby,” he adds.

I wrote earlier this month about cities where home prices are falling. Falling rents put even more downward pressure on rental property prices, which creates room for negotiating deep discounts with desperate sellers. 

“When rents soften, sellers get more flexible, and buyers can secure better deals,” adds Austin Glanzer of 717HomeBuyer in a conversation with BiggerPockets. “It’s a great time to scour for underpriced properties and add value through renovations.”

That proves doubly true if you believe inflation will rear up again due to incoming tariffs. Rental investors can lock in monthly loan payments in today’s dollars, only to have inflation drive rents up over the next few years. 

James Heller with The Atlas Portfolio in Cincinnati recommends investors not just seek out great deals but to also add revenue. “Look for properties with room for strategic upgrades,” he advised when speaking to BiggerPockets.

That could mean value-add renovations, of course, but it could also mean adding an ADU or splitting one property into two units. It could mean switching from a long-term rental to a short-term or medium-term rental or some other creative way to generate more income from the same property. 

At the co-investing club, we’ve vetted and invested in some group deals where the operator added value even more creatively. For example, last month, we invested in two property tax abatement deals, where operators partnered with local municipalities to set aside a percentage of the units for affordable housing. In exchange, they got a property tax abatement that instantly added six figures in net operating income. 

What’s the Outlook for Future Rents?

The flood of new rental units hitting the market over the last two years is about to ease. Yardi projects far fewer new units hitting the market in 2026 and 2027 than in 2022-2025. Likewise, CBRE sees the same slowing of new supply and retightening of rental markets. Check out their timelines for recovery for these major cities with negative rent growth:

us real estate market outlook 2025 figure 14
CBRE

Circling back to multifamily housing starts, they dropped to 316 in May. 

In short, rents appear to be bottoming out right about now nationwide. Zillow projects total rent growth in 2025 at 2.8% for single-family homes and 1.6% for multifamily. Meanwhile, CBRE forecasts total rent growth at a 2.6% annual rate by the end of 2025.

Soft rental markets create opportunities and bargains for investors. In the co-investing club, we continue meeting every month to vet new deals and go into them together. It’s a core part of my investing philosophy of dollar-cost averaging: I invest $5,000 in a new real estate deal every single month. That helps me earn high returns over time, even when other investors hem and haw and fret over the headlines.  

Don’t expect rents to skyrocket like they did in 2022 and 2023, but don’t expect them to fall in most markets either. Gradually, the glut of supply will get absorbed over the next two years, and most rental markets should stabilize by the end of this year. 

Through it all, I plan to keep investing small amounts every month as one more member of an investment club.

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If you’re holding a single-family rental right now, you’ve probably asked the same question I did: Is it even worth refinancing with rates this high?

On the surface, the answer seems obvious. Interest rates are still floating near 7%. Everyone’s waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. If you are like most real estate investors, though, waiting sometimes can mean missing the opportunity right in front of you.

But here’s what most investors miss: Refinancing isn’t about rate timing, it’s about capital strategy. And in some cases, refinancing with a DSCR loan today could actually help you scale faster, grow smarter, and position yourself ahead of the next wave of opportunity.

What’s Happening With Interest Rates?

The Fed held off on cuts again, and mortgage rates remain sticky. But that doesn’t mean they’re going up dramatically, either. Most projections indicate slow, gradual declines over the next 12 to 18 months. 

Translation? Rates might drop a bit, but probably not fast enough to change your whole investing life.

More importantly, DSCR loans don’t move exactly in lockstep with conventional mortgage rates. They’re tied to investor appetite and risk tolerance, which means there’s often a gap between what the headlines say and what lenders like Dominion Financial Services are offering today.

So…When Do DSCR Rates Drop?

The honest answer? We don’t know. And even if they do, it might not happen in time to fund your next deal. Some investors wait for the “perfect” rate and end up missing out on five great ones. Others lock in what works now, create cash flow, and refi again when the market shifts.

Here’s the upside: Many DSCR lenders allow future refinancing with minimal penalty, and some even offer streamlined options if rates improve. That means you can refinance now to unlock equity or exit a high-interest bridge loan, then refi again later if rates drop further. 

Ensure you fully understand the terms of your loan before committing to it, as DSCR loans often have a range of prepayment penalties that impact the interest rate and monthly payment. 

Should You Refinance Now or Wait?

It depends on your goals. If you’re just trying to shave off 1% to lower your monthly payment, it might make sense to wait. But if you’re trying to access trapped equity, consolidate debt, or convert a short-term loan into a long-term hold, refinancing now could be the better play.

A DSCR refinance can:

  • Turn a high-interest hard money loan into a 30-year fixed product.
  • Pull cash out to fund your next down payment.
  • Improve your debt service ratio for future loans.
  • Lock in long-term control over the asset.

So, while your monthly rate might not look perfect on paper, your overall position as an investor can improve dramatically. The debt-to-income ratio is one of the silent killers of most deals when an investor tries to finance it through their personal income, which is typical of traditional conventional loans. 

Why a DSCR Refinance Still Beats The Bank

Traditional lenders often require W-2 income, tax returns, and a lengthy underwriting process. DSCR lenders? They focus on the deal itself. If the property cash flows, it qualifies.

That makes DSCR loans ideal for:

  • Self-employed investors who don’t have traditional income documentation but do have strong-performing properties.
  • Airbnb and short-term rental operators who generate seasonal or irregular income that conventional lenders might not recognize.
  • House hackers and mid-term rental owners who use creative strategies to maximize occupancy and revenue but don’t fit inside a bank’s underwriting box.
  • BRRRR method investors looking to stabilize a property after renovation and extract equity for the next project.
  • Portfolio builders who have hit the cap on conventional loans and want to keep acquiring without jumping through endless hoops.

DSCR loans are designed for real estate entrepreneurs who treat this like a business, not just a one-off investment. If your property produces income, you can qualify based on its performance, not your personal tax returns or job history.

Plus, with lenders like Dominion Financial Services, you get more than just a rate sheet. Dominion Financial Services offers a DSCR Price-Beat Guarantee, ensuring you are getting the best rate available today. You get certainty of close, flexible terms that reflect real investing needs and loan products built specifically for people actively growing rental portfolios, not just buying a house to live in.

Final Thoughts

Refinancing today may not yield a dreamy 4%-5% rate. However, it can provide you with leverage, liquidity, and long-term control. And that’s often more valuable than saving a point or two on interest.

The best investors don’t just wait for perfect market conditions. They make strategic moves based on where they want to go next. If refinancing now helps you acquire the next deal, strengthens your portfolio, or extends your timeline, run the numbers to see if it’s a good fit. It might make more sense than you think.

And if you’re ready to explore DSCR options, Dominion Financial Services can help you understand what’s possible today, not just what might happen tomorrow.



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Whenever war breaks out, the most important consideration by far should always be for the people who are killed or wounded in the conflict. Economic considerations are, and should always be, secondary. However, it’s still important to understand what is likely to happen if the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, especially if the United States gets involved. 

On June 13, despite another round of nuclear talks being scheduled for the upcoming weekend, Israel launched a surprise attack on the Iranian regime, taking out numerous top generals, nuclear scientists, and numerous important facilities with a combination of spies and assets it had smuggled into the country in an aerial campaign. Iran has since retaliated and been able to break through Israel’s Iron Dome on numerous occasions with its ballistic missiles. At the same time, Israel has continued to strike targets inside Iran as both sides make increasingly bellicose claims against each other.

The United States has, thus far, only provided defensive and intelligence support to Israel, but President Trump has clearly stated he is considering strikes on Iran, particularly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant buried deep inside a mountain. He’s also demanded “unconditional surrender,” while Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at the goal of regime change. However, as of this writing, the United States has not chosen to attack Iranian targets directly.

What Has the Effect Been So Far?

The biggest effect economically thus far has been a marked increase in the price of oil. Since June 13, oil prices have increased 10.4% from $66.90 per barrel to $73.85 per barrel. This is almost certainly based predominantly on fear of the future rather than actual supply shortages. So, a quick resolution to the war would likely bring prices back down.

oil prices
Google Finance

As of now, it’s unlikely oil deliveries will be substantially affected. But that could change very dramatically if the war becomes a protracted affair, and especially if the United States gets involved. But before analyzing that possibility, we should do a quick review of recent history.

A Brief Recap of Recent American Interventions

If the success of American military interventions in the last 25 years were measured as an investment strategy, it would amount to something like putting all of your savings into FTX circa mid-2022. They go like this:

Needless to say, American interventions in the Middle East have been an utter disaster. Just the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost an estimated $6.5 trillion! These foreign interventions have put an enormous strain on America’s fiscal situation and are a major reason many countries are seeking to “de-dollarize,” which could have very substantial consequences for the United States in the future.

Oil prices, in particular, spiked after the Iraq war, going from $33.51 in March 2003 when the war began to a peak of $133.88 in June 2008. 

oil prices historical
MacroTrends.net

This most certainly wasn’t just caused by the Iraq War. Indeed, the housing bubble that led to the 2008 crash would more accurately be described as the housing/oil bubble, or even the housing/oil/stock bubble, as oil prices had been bid up to unsustainable levels.

Needless to say, whether it be morally, politically, or economically, U.S. interventions have a very poor track record, to say the least.

Why This Time Is Different (It’s Worse)

Iran is not Iraq. It is almost four times the size and four times the population of Iraq when the U.S. invaded in 2003. As the damage done to Israel’s cities so far shows, it is also far more advanced militarily than Iraq ever was. In fact, it has numerous hypersonic missiles that the United States has somehow yet to figure out how to produce

A 2002 war game run by the U.S. military against what presumably would have been Iran actually had the United States losing. Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper, acting as the Iranians, used asymmetrical tactics the U.S. military’s more conventional approach was unprepared for. Indeed, for that reason, as well as Iran’s mountainous and difficult terrain, a ground invasion is effectively off the table, especially after the debacle in Iraq.

Yes, tactics and technology have changed, but it’s highly unlikely that the fundamental calculus has. This means for a regime change, it would require troops (not realistic), nukes (terrifying), or a popular revolt.

It is very hard to get reliable survey data about the Iranian population’s views of their government. But from the surveys I’ve found and everything I can tell, the Islamic Republic is not popular among the Iranian people and almost universally despised in the Persian diaspora. That being said, if they were going to overthrow the government, we would see some signs of it. Yet there is very little, if any, indication of such a revolt

We should remember that Saddam Hussein was also unpopular among Iraqis. If the Soviet people did not rebel against Stalin when the Nazis invaded, and the Germans did not rebel against Hitler when the Allies began their saturation bombing campaign, exactly when did this happen?

Maybe there was a sliver of a chance the regime would implode after the first night’s decapitation attack, but Iran has clearly regrouped. Generally, the only time revolts break out is after a long, unpopular war, where the civilian population is under significant and sustained duress. 

The most obvious example is Czarist Russia in 1917. But that was after three brutal years of World War I and millions of casualties. (Further, as bad as the Ayatollah is, I don’t think the Bolsheviks would be an improvement, so we shouldn’t assume what comes after would be good.)

Studies show, if anything, that aerial bombing campaigns strengthen support for the existing government. In addition, I cannot find a single example of a war won by air power alone. Even a perceived win, such as Libya in 2011, had rebel forces on the ground. 

The closest thing I can think of was Japan in 1945. This shouldn’t even count for two obvious reasons: It involved an invasion of all the outlying islands and a massive naval blockade, and I don’t think I need to mention this part.

Even substantially hampering production with an aerial bombardment alone is incredibly difficult. To illustrate this, Germany increased military production until late 1944 despite the largest saturation bombing campaign in history—one that dwarfs the current Israeli attacks on Iran. 

A regime change war simply does not appear realistic. It is highly unlikely that either side can win this war in the way they are currently fighting it. But is taking out Fordow (the Iranian nuclear plant buried 300 feet underneath a mountain) and setting back Iran’s nuclear program a possibility? 

Let’s ignore DNI director Tulsi Gabbard’s statement in March that “The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and IAEA director-general Rafael Grossi’s statement that “we did not have any proof of a systematic effort (by Iran] to move toward a nuclear weapon” and assume Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon. They certainly have enriched uranium well past where it would need to be for a nuclear reactor. Can this site be destroyed and destroy any Iranian nuclear ambitions for years to come? 

Other than nuclear weapons, the only weapon that has a chance is the MOP bunker buster bomb. Only the United States has these weapons, but they are far from a sure thing

For one thing, a single bunker buster can only go—at the absolute most—200 feet down. So you would need at least two that hit the exact same spot. And the facilities would need to be directly below the hit. Also, since the MOP would be hitting a mountain (i.e., not a flat surface), there’s no saying it will go straight down and not deflect at an angle once it hits the mountain. 

But a bigger problem than the feasibility is the potential response. This is where we move into speculation. Do any other regional actors get involved, like Turkey or Egypt? Do China and Russia step up support for Iran? Does Iran retaliate against U.S. forces in the region?

We now have three carrier groups in the Persian Gulf or en route. It has been argued for some time now that aircraft carriers are antiquated technology. There really are no good methods for stopping hypersonic missiles, and even drones present a major challenge. In fact, the Houthis came close to hitting an aircraft carrier. If the Iranians so choose, it’s hard to see how they can’t send at least one of these ships and its 5,000-member crew to the bottom of the Gulf. 

Then what’s the American response? The escalation ladder is terrifying to consider.

Even a failed attack on Fordow could have significant consequences. Would the United States look impotent and provoke other countries in the region to attack? Would Trump feel the need to expand the war to preserve the credibility of American power? Who knows?

Regardless, the truly devastating thing Iran could do in response would be to close off the Strait of Hormuz, where approximately 21% of the world’s traded oil is transported through every day. The Strait is tiny and would not be hard to close. 

strait of hormuz
Business Insider

They could also bomb Saudi Arabian oil refineries to really set the markets both literally and figuratively ablaze. J.P. Morgan has estimated that even just closing the Strait of Hormuz could cause gas prices to almost double. Some have argued the price could even exceed $200 a barrel if the Strait is closed for a protracted period of time. This would make the gas lines of the 1970s look like a picnic.

The Economic Fallout if the War Escalates

The United States would not be hit anywhere near as bad as Europe or China by such a leap in energy prices. This is because the United States is a net energy exporter. Europe and China are both net importers, and Europe has been dealing with consistent economic problems from high energy costs since the Ukraine war started and Nord Stream 2 was destroyed. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would almost certainly send Europe into a deep recession. On the other hand, China’s rapid growth has necessitated enormous energy consumption and thereby, their development would be severely disrupted.

So, would high oil prices technically benefit the United States? The answer is no. Shocks to the system are virtually never a benefit. In addition, demand for American exports would plummet as foreign consumers would no longer be able to afford to buy as many of our goods.

Furthermore, the benefits of high oil prices would be netted mostly by energy companies. The costs (think $6/gallon gasoline) would be borne by the average consumer and business. While some large companies and wealthy investors might initially benefit from higher oil prices, the average consumer will be squeezed. This, in turn, would reduce consumer spending and cost corporate America dearly. Indeed, excluding the COVID-19-induced 2020 recession, the last five recessions have all been preceded by a significant rise in the price of oil

In other words, the United States would be hurt less than Europe or China, but it would still be hurt nonetheless.

In addition, the United States is staring down an enormous fiscal challenge, especially if it needs to pay for another large-scale war. Even without the COVID-19 pandemic or financing a (major) war, the U.S. still ran a $1.83 trillion deficit, which amounts to 27.1% of the federal budget! 

2025 will already be the first time in its history that the United States will spend more on debt service than its military. The U.S. can always borrow and print more dollars to prevent default. But this will further erode the value of the dollar, speed up de-dollarization, and put upward pressure on interest rates. And all of this will happen while high gas prices push the United States toward a recession.

A limited military operation like bombing Fordow wouldn’t cost a substantial amount. But I would think it’s unlikely to end there. And remember, the U.S. spent upwards of $6.5 trillion on Iraq and Afghanistan. The cost of a large-scale war in Iran could very well trigger a sovereign debt crisis. 

The Unspoken Operating Costs Crisis

When we zoom in to look at the more localized effects such a conflict could have on businesses and real estate investors, the looming threat is to greatly exacerbate something that has become an albatross hanging around many of our necks since 2023: the major rise in operating costs.

Office space has had significant problems, especially in coastal cities, and multifamily took a sizable hit when interest rates rose in 2023 and cut into cash flow. This inevitably caused cap rates to expand and prices to fall. And that was caused just by an increase in debt service payments. 

In our business and with everyone I’ve talked to, operating costs have become a significant challenge for years now. In 2024 alone, home insurance went up an average of 10.4%, property taxes went up 5.1%,  and utilities up 3%, while wages are up 4.3%, all of which outpace inflation. And that was 2024 before the new tariffs were implemented

Materials price increases have slowed, but they never came back down completely from the astronomical increases in 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, rents have gone up substantially over the past decade, but that has leveled off. As of February 2025, annual rent increases were at a paltry 0.6%

Simply speaking, it’s becoming more and more difficult to hold properties and operate them at a healthy profit. Numerous investors, businesses, and organizations have complained about it, with one calling operating costs “a looming crisis.” 

This goes for flippers as well, as all these costs also add up in a rehab even faster. Flippers need to get better deals to make up for those extra rehab costs, especially as there are now 500,000 more buyers than sellers, and we are likely moving into a buyer’s market. 

Oil prices are one of the largest factors that contribute to inflation. Most notably, OPEC’s 1973 oil embargo was a key contributor to the high inflation of the 1970s. If gas prices increase substantially, operating costs will become even more burdensome. If they skyrocket, operating costs may simply become unbearable for many, if not most, real estate investors. Trying to pad your reserves, if possible, is not a bad idea right now.

Final Thoughts

Entering into a war with Iran could very likely be an economic catastrophe for the United States and the world at large. It would very well cause oil prices to skyrocket, inflation to dramatically increase, and real estate operating costs to go through the roof. This is probably why, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll, 60% of Americans oppose America entering the war, while only 16% approve. 

Of course, no one should want Iran to have nuclear weapons. But in my admittedly biased opinion, I would look to the comparison between Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un for how to guide U.S. policy. Gaddafi gave up his chemical weapons and then was killed by U.S.-backed rebels. Kim Jong-un got nukes, and everyone leaves him alone. The incentives are all backward.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) may not have been perfect, but it was hard not to notice that those screaming the loudest about it were the same who screamed the loudest about Saddam Hussein’s alleged weapons of mass destruction. Diplomacy and a new nuclear deal are not going to happen at this point, unfortunately. But that doesn’t mean diplomacy is no longer possible. 

After Iran and Israel have punched each other out for a few weeks and, in all likelihood, realized that victory is not possible without a potentially catastrophic escalation, that will hopefully change. 

I, for one, certainly hope so.



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There’s nothing like the looming threat of a Category 5 hurricane to test a real estate investor’s priorities. As Hurricane Milton swirled off the coast last year—about as uncertain as interest rates—BPCON 2024 in Cancún pressed on. Flights got shuffled, contingency plans flew into action, and the patio furniture remained completely unbothered. 

And yet, the energy? Unshaken. The vibe? Resilient. The water? Bottled. The investors? Fully present—and stuffing all the free food into their bigger pockets (or at least I was).

Key Highlights

Codi Sanchez kicked off the keynote by taking a swipe at real estate investors—you know, the ones proudly cash-flowing $112 a month on a $475,000 single-family. Apparently, we’re not building wealth—we’re just trying to win some masochist Olympics. I scoffed, obviously.

Then she said something that landed: We’re the builders, the unemployable. Not broken. Not crazy. Just wired for something else.

I’ve been saying that about myself for years—half-joke, half-warning. But hearing it from a speaker like her, on a stage that big, with thousands of heads nodding? That was different. That was home.

Not Who I Expected

I was genuinely surprised to be chosen as a speaker. I hadn’t retired to a beach off the cash flow from an Airbnb portfolio and have a course to sell you, so you can, too (wink). I’m not a private equity bro, and I constantly make fun of myself. And I try really, really hard not to take myself too seriously. 

So when I got the invite last spring, I confirmed before they realized their error—figured I’d sneak in before they changed their minds.

But what surprised me even more was realizing I wasn’t the outlier. The other speakers? They were just regular investors. Approachable. In the trenches. Still making mistakes and learning and figuring it out as they go. People like me. Like you. 

Nobody was floating above the crowd on some influencer cloud, waving down from early retirement. They were right there at lunch. At the pool. In the lobby. Open, real, and sharing what they knew without ego.

Why I Really Go to BPCon

I spend most of my time talking about real estate. Like, all my time. I even tried striking up a conversation with the cashier at Aldi—but she scanned everything so fast I don’t think she caught any of it.

But the truth is, I’m not that different from most investors. We’re all a little obsessed. And when I go to BPCON, I don’t show up to brag about what I’ve done.

I go to bring my problems—the stuff I’m stuck on, the things that make this squirrel brain race—and I look for people whose perspectives stretch beyond my own. And when you’re at BPCON, there are thousands of people equally obsessed, who don’t try to escape from you, and who have so many ideas and perspectives that you can contribute to and take from. It’s kind of like the take-a-penny, leave-a-penny tray at the cashier—but less grubby.

This time, I got to spend real, unhurried time with a few local investor friends. We’d connected before—but in Cancun, something clicked. We talked about goals and how our strengths complemented each other. Now? We’ve got a multifamily property under contract together.

Also, someone literally held a staff meeting on speakerphone while pooping in the main conference bathroom—during Codi’s keynote. So, no, not everyone stayed for the whole session. But somehow, even that felt on-brand. These are my people.

That didn’t happen because I went looking for a win. It happened because I showed up with questions, not answers.

See You There

If you’ve made it this far, there’s a good chance you’re one of us—the kind of person who thinks talking about cap rates is a good time, whose brain runs on ideas, who probably also scared an Aldi cashier once.

BPCON isn’t just a conference. It’s a gathering of the unemployable, the obsessives, the spreadsheet lovers, the gut-feel risk-takers, and the quietly brilliant. You don’t have to have it all figured out. Just show up. Bring your questions. Bring your weird. Bring your squirrel brain.

Because I’ll be back at BPCON 2025—probably saying something I shouldn’t into a microphone that no one asked me about—and if you’re smart, you’ll be there too. Not to be perfect. Just to be in the room.

A Real Estate Conference Built Differently

October 5-7, 2025 | Caesars Palace, Las Vegas 
For three powerful days, engage with elite real estate investors actively building wealth now. No theory. No outdated advice. No empty promises—just proven tactics from investors closing deals today. Every speaker delivers actionable strategies you can implement immediately.



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The housing market is experiencing its most significant shift in decades. Sellers are returning in full force, outnumbering buyers by a substantial margin. Homes are selling for under-asking, giving investors and first-time homebuyers discounts previously unheard of. Are we on our way to a housing market crash, correction, or a much-needed reset, which would return us to the “normal” housing market many of us have been asking for over the past few years?

We’re breaking it all down—best and worst markets, mortgage rates, supply and demand, and more—in our June 2025 housing market update!

Mortgage delinquencies are rising—which could spell trouble. Are we heading back to foreclosure territory of the last housing crash? Not quite, but this is good news for buyers. Dave shares his 2025 investing plan so you can follow along, find better deals, and reduce your risk. Plus, will we see interest rates reverse with good inflation data and a worrying jobs report? The Fed could make moves; stick around to hear how it’ll (most likely) affect you!

Dave Meyer:
The housing market is experiencing one of its biggest shifts in decades. Opportunities are becoming more abundant, but so are risks. So you have to be an informed investor to learn how to separate good deals from bad and dominate in this new era of the housing market. Here’s what you need to know. Hey, what’s up everyone? It’s Dave Meyer, head of real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets. Welcome to our monthly housing market update. Amidst all of the crazy stuff going on, the continuous change in the economy and the housing market, this segment, this monthly housing market update that we do is quickly becoming one of our most popular important shows that we do every single month. So we’re excited to have you here with us to talk to you about what’s going on. In today’s episode, we’re going to start with an overview of the national housing market, and we always talk about how real estate is local, and that is true, but there are a lot of things that you need to know about the broad, biggest, high level trends that will inform what’s going on in your market and will inform your strategy.
So we’re going to start there. We’ll also talk about some of those regional trends. Obviously we can’t get into every single market, but we’re going to talk about broadly what’s happening in different pockets of the country. We’ll next talk about macroeconomics. I know that sounds boring, but we need to sort of understand the why behind what’s going on in the housing market. Yes, inventory is going up. Yes, we are seeing higher mortgage rates, but why are those things happening? By understanding why those things are going on in the first place, we can start to get an idea of what might come next. We obviously cannot predict the future, but sort of understanding the background to what’s happening in the market, we’ll help us prepare for everything that’s going to come. So that will be second. And then lastly, although this show and episode is mostly focused on data, I am at the end going to talk a little bit about strategy and just share some of my personal perspectives I am using to guide my own decision making.
Let’s do this. First things first, like I said, we’re going to start with the national housing market and I’m going to share with you the biggest broadest picture. First we have entered and are in what is an expanding buyer’s market. You may have heard me say this on recent shows recently, but basically what this means, what being in a buyer’s market means is that there are now more sellers than there are buyers. A recent study just came out from Redfin that shows that there are about 1.95 million sellers in the housing market. So let’s just round up to 2 million, and there are about 1.45 million buyers in the housing market. So there are 500,000, half a million more sellers today in the housing market than there are buyers. And the reason that makes this a buyer’s market is because all of those sellers, there’s all those extra sellers, they’re going to have to compete for buyers, right?
If there are 2 million properties, 2 million people trying to sell their house, but there are only 1.5 million roughly, I’m rounding here, 1.5 million buyers, those sellers are going to have to compete for the buyers, and the way that they do that is by either lowering their price or offering concessions like rate buy downs, covering closing costs or any of a million different concessions that a seller can offer, but because they’re competing for buyers, that’s what makes it the buyer’s market. That means that buyers have the leverage to negotiate with sellers when they’re going to buy deals. So that’s sort of the exciting thing about what’s going on in the housing market because that means if you’re in acquisition mode, if you’re looking to build your portfolio, you are going to be able to get better deals today than you were three months ago or six months ago or really over the last couple of years.
I think the other side of that though is that prices could be falling, like I just said, the way that sellers compete for these buyers are by offering concessions, and the primary concession that buyers typically want is a lower acquisition price. This dynamic can drive down prices in the housing market. I think it’s really important to know that prices are still up year over year. We are not in any sort of crash, but I believe that the probability of a correction on a national level, basically prices falling modestly on a national level is pretty high. I obviously can’t say for certain, but I agree with recent updates on forecast that we got from Redfin and Zillow that they think that prices are going to fall one to 2% year over year by the end of this year, and I think the probability of that happening is pretty high.
And so that’s sort of the big broad picture that we’re seeing on a national level. Prices are likely to go down a little bit. That means there are going to be better deals for investors, but obviously that comes with risk of price declines that as investors we need to mitigate because we don’t want to buy something where prices are just going to drop off a cliff after we buy it. So that’s what we’re going to be talking about a little today. And again, that is sort of the national housing market. Not every market has the exact same dynamics, but as I’ll show, almost all markets are following this trend. So that doesn’t mean that every single region, every single market is going to go from plus two plus 3% growth this year to negative prices, but a lot of markets, even the hottest ones might go from plus seven to plus four, so all of them are sort of cooling off.
There are very few markets that are actually heating up and where acceleration and price growth are appreciating and going up. So the big picture, but let’s talk for a minute about why this is happening because as you can imagine, there’s basically two reasons. There’s two ways that we can go from a seller’s market like we’ve been in for the last couple of years into the buyer’s market that we’re in today. You could have more sellers or you could have fewer buyers. You could also have some combination of two, but we’re actually having one clear thing. What is happening is that we have more sellers, more people are putting their homes on the market for sale. It may not seem like this when you read the news or when you hear about consumer sentiment or everything else that’s going on in the economy, but buyers are actually pretty stable.
You look at the amount of people looking for homes, if you actually look at home sales, if you look at the number of people who are applying for mortgages, they’re all pretty stable year over year. Actually, the most recent data shows that the number of people applying for mortgages in May of 2025 was 20% higher than the year before, and so that part is not going away. So if you hear people saying, no one’s buying, no one wants to buy, that’s not true. What’s happening is more people are selling, and honestly, this has taken a long time. I think we’ve had really, really low numbers of sellers in the housing market for years now, and so we are basically heading back towards something that’s more normal. Like I said before, Redfin right now is estimating that we’re at about 2 million sellers in the market and that number has been rising quickly over the last two years let’s say, but we are still below where we were pre pandemic like in 2019 before everything changed, we were at about 2.23 million, so we’re still about 10, 15% below what would be a pre pandemic norm of sellers.
So let’s just keep that all in proper perspective because it’s easy to say, Hey, there’s so many sellers, there are less buyers, everything’s going to crash, but we need to remember that the data is showing us it’s going back towards more normal pre pandemic levels, not that we are going anywhere close to sort of the red flag territory that we’re in in 2007, 2008, that kind of thing. You see this across all of the data and I’ll just share some of that with you, but basically inventory, which is a really good metric if you want to learn one metric in the housing market, learn what inventory means and start following it because it really measures the balance between supply and demand. It measures the balance between buyers and sellers. And what we’re seeing right now is that inventory is about 1.5 million that is still below about the 1.8, 1.9 million that we expected before the pandemic.
So things are moving back towards that more traditional level. We don’t know if it will go all the way back up. We don’t know if it’ll go past that, but we are still below that pre pandemic level. So that’s I think a good sign for the short-term stability of the market. We see the same thing in days on market. Another really good way to measure the balance between supply and demand. That’s still well below pre pandemic levels, and I think if you are worried about the crash, if you are looking at or hearing people saying that the housing market is crashing, I think there’s one other data point. One thing that I always look at and I recommend people look at as well, which is mortgage delinquencies because prices going down a correction like the one I was talking about before, where prices go down 1%, 2%, even up to five, 6%.
These types of things are normal in the housing market. The housing market, just like a lot of other markets are cyclical and so things go up. We’ve had an amazing run of home prices for the last 15 years, basically, well 14 years, but there are times when prices flatten out or decline, and I think we’re entering one of those periods. But to have a true crash, two things have to be true. It can’t just be prices going down 5%, that is not a crash, that is a normal correction for things to enter that true crash territory price declines have to combine with forced selling. Basically people have to stop paying their mortgages. They can no longer afford to do that. That gets them in the situation where you could be underwater on your mortgage and since you’re not paying on that mortgage, the banks could foreclose on you and that can create this sort of vicious cycle of increasing inventory, falling prices, people defaulting.
That’s a really bad situation. And so in these housing market updates, one of the things I’m going to continuously remind you about, so every month I’m going to share this with you, is the mortgage delinquency rate. Because this thing, if mortgage delinquencies stay relatively low like they are now, it is below 1% of all mortgage are seriously delinquent, we’re at 0.86%. Things will correct. Prices could go down, but there’s not really a risk of a big true crash. Of course, this can change, everything can change, but right now that is not looking very likely because that 0.86% less than 1% of people is below where we were in 2017. It was below where we were in 2018. So it is going up a little bit, but I think a lot of that is due to the end of moratoriums on foreclosures and the end of forbearance programs.
And we’re still actually below where we were like in 2000, 2002 just for some context. When we were in 2007, 2008, the true crash, that delinquency rate was literally nine to 10 times higher. It was above 7%. And so we are not really at risk of that right now, but that is something that we should all be keeping an eye on. So that’s my big picture overview of the national housing market. Things are cooling, prices are softening, but the risk of a crash still remains relatively low in my mind. That said, there are tons of uncertainties geopolitically right now, trade policy, all of that could change, and so the chances of some Black Swan event coming and totally changing everything that I’m saying here are a bit higher than normal, but I’m trying to just share with you what we know. This is the data that we have today and this is how I interpret that data. I do want to talk a little bit about regional differences, but we do have to take a quick break. We’ll be right back. This segment is brought to you by res simply the all-in-one CR M built for real estate investors. You can automate your marketing skiptrace for free, send direct mail and connect with your leads all in one place. Head over to res simply.com/biggerpockets now to start your free trial and get 50% off your first month.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. Here is our June housing market update. Before the break, I shared with you some broad trends about the housing market on a national level, but I now want to turn to some of our regional differences because of course not everything is the same. There are still many markets that are growing and are actually seeing above average appreciation, and I’m looking at the biggest markets in the country right now. So there are probably towns, smaller cities that are growing even faster than this or slower than the ones I’m going to share, but sort of big metro areas across the country. The fastest year over year increase as we’re seeing goes to a very polarizing market that a lot of people might not believe it is Detroit, Michigan has seen nearly 9% year over year growth. The second highest is another one that I don’t think people were expecting earlier this year or recently.
That is New York City at nearly 6% growth. Then we had Pittsburgh, which I’ve been calling out on this show as a great market for years, 6%, Virginia Beach at 5% and Chicago, another one I am always hyping up is 5.2%. So all of those are above long-term averages. A normal year in the housing market, you see prices go up three to 4%. We are seeing these markets at above 5%, all of them. On the flip side, we are seeing other markets in pretty serious declines. The biggest decline is in Oakland, California, which has seen nearly an 8% decline year over year with median home price followed by Dallas at minus 5%, Jacksonville, Florida at four, Tampa at 2.4%, and San Diego 2.1%. So not hugely surprising here that we’re seeing the biggest upticks in the Midwest and the Northeast. That’s a trend we’ve been talking about and seeing for years now, and the ones with the biggest decreases are relatively expensive markets, not actually expensive, but ones that got expensive where prices really grew in the last couple of years.
So Oakland already expensive, got more expensive. Dallas is still a relatively affordable market, but that just went up like crazy over the last couple of years. So it’s not surprising to see it come down a little bit. Same with Jacksonville and Tampa, San Diego, another super expensive market as well. Now all of that can obviously change and I try and sort of look forward at to what might be happening. And so one of the things I like to look at, given what we said earlier about the big shift in the housing market is more people are listing their properties for sale. So where are listings going up the most? Well, they are actually kind of spread out and we’re starting to see listings go up a bit in these more Midwest, more affordable markets. So we’ll see if that cools off the housing market, but Houston has the most new listings at 15% followed by Columbus, Ohio at 12, Boston at 11, Indianapolis at 11 and Cincinnati 10%.
So 10% year over year. None of these numbers are super crazy and a lot of these markets are still hot. So it doesn’t necessarily mean that there’ll be price declines because there’s a lot of buyers in all of those markets, maybe except Houston. Houston, that might be a little bit of a red flag, but the other ones are very hot markets, so those might all get absorbed. On the other hand, we’re seeing this interesting dynamic where some of the markets that are seeing declines are seeing less listings, and this is something we need to be following throughout this market shift because sellers are now reacting. We had a lot of people trying to sell because prices were up. Now that prices are flattening or going down a little bit, maybe sellers are deciding, eh, they’ll just sit this one out and perhaps choose not to sell.
Just as an example, the bottom five markets for new listings where it’s going down the fastest, Fort Worth, Texas, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Dallas, so Texas and Florida. The two markets that are seeing the biggest corrections now, this is where really the facts and reality of the situation differ from the people who are calling for a crash and are just making stuff up. They say that when prices go down, more people are going to sell and they’re going to sell and it creates this sort of spiral that’s the exact opposite of what is happening, right? Sellers are saying, actually, I don’t need to sell right now. I’m not going to put my property on the market. Remember I said that Tampa was one of the top five markets for price declines. We are now seeing Tampa as the second coolest market for new listings.
They’re going down the fastest. Same thing with Dallas. So sellers are saying, actually, prices are going down. I’m just not going to sell right now, and instead I am going to just wait this out and see what happens next. And so this is sort of the balancing function that happens in the housing market and yes, creates a correction like we’re in right now, but sort of prevents the full blown crash because as I said, until people are forced to sell, they have this option not to sell. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing in some of the markets that are correcting. So that’s the update on that housing market, but I want to turn our attention to why some of these things are happening and just some of the things going on in the broader economy that will impact the housing market. Big picture, macro, it is very uncertain right now.
You’re probably watching the news and seeing all this stuff going on geopolitically, we’re seeing a lot of uncertainty on our trade policy. It’s really hard to pin things down, but I think it’s really important to call out that a lot of the data that we’re seeing, at least as of now for the macro climate is actually solid. This is good news. I’ll break down a couple of these things for you. First and foremost, inflation. Inflation ticked up as of the last reading in May it went up from 2.3 to 2.4%, so nothing crazy. This is something I do think we’re all going to have to keep an eye out for. With tariffs, there might be an uptick inflation, there might not be. It’s been more muted than I think a lot of people were expecting, but inflation usually lags a little bit. We’ve seen that over the last couple of years.
And so if there’s going to be an uptick from tariffs, that might not hit until August or September. We’re just going to have to keep an eye out. But I do think it’s important to say that inflation hasn’t really shot up in any considerable way over the last couple of months, and so that is an encouraging sign. The second thing is the labor market. There are some signs that the labor market is starting to weaken. We are seeing increases in two of the metrics I like to look at. So some people look at total jobs, some people look at the unemployment rate. I think those things are important, but if you want to sort of track things on a really micro level, one of the things I really like to look at is initial claims for unemployment. That’s a really good metric to measure. How many people are getting laid off in a given week.
It has increased over the last couple of weeks and has sustained there for two or three weeks. It is not at any emergency levels, but this is something to keep an eye on. Same thing for another metric called continuing unemployment claim. So that’s basically how many people are looking for work but are having a hard time finding work that has also gone up. Again, nothing crazy, but they’re starting to go up and these are things that we should be keeping an eye on, but the fact that the labor market is doing as well as it is with all this uncertainty with interest rates being high for three years now, I think that says a lot about the US economy and the resilience of the labor market. We’ll see if that changes, but I think given where we are with everything else going on, that is an encouraging sign.
So those things are good, right? Inflation is relatively tamed compared to where we’ve been. It hasn’t shut up. The labor market is showing some weakness, but there’s no emergency signs at least as of now. But people generally speaking, the American consumer, they’re just not feeling it right now. They’re not happy about the economy. If you look at consumer sentiment, which is a measure of it, it is just absolutely fallen off a cliff. It is close to the lowest point it’s been in the last seven, eight years. It was lower than this in 2022 when inflation was really raging at eight, 9%. But we are getting back to that level and it’s not really necessarily based on any specific thing that’s happening because like I said, inflation is back to a normal level, the labor market’s, okay? It could be a couple of things. One could be just sort of the cumulative effect of all the last few years inflation has gone up.
I think a lot of people are hoping for prices to go down. That doesn’t tend to happen. When I say inflation is down, that means that the pace of price increases is slowing. It doesn’t mean that prices are going down, prices are still going up two and a half percent on average. That could be one thing why people are sort of not feeling it. The other thing is just due to all of the uncertainty. There’s this kind of amazing chart right now. There’s something called the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index that is for nerds like me to check out. But this basically is how uncertain the markets feel about what is going on with monetary and fiscal policy in the us, and they measure this and they index it to a hundred. That means like a normal level right now it is at 470. This is a very unusually uncertain time in the macroeconomic climate for geopolitics, for the economy, and that just wears on people.
It wears on businesses. They make less decisions. It wears on consumers. They don’t want to make huge commitments to buying a house, to buying a car, to investing in something. So this is one of the major things that’s happening on sort of an individual level. But I also think it’s one of the things that’s driving the housing market because it’s also freezing bond yields and mortgage rates. Mortgage rates this year, they’ve been somewhat consistent, right? They’ve kind of stuck within this band of 6.75 to 7.15 is sort of where we’ve been for the last six months despite all of these wild swings in the stock market and trade policy. So why are they staying so stable? Why haven’t they dropped a little bit? Why haven’t they gone up more? Basically what’s going on is uncertainty is freezing the mortgage market in my mind because mortgages are based on bonds.
We talk about that all the time, and bond investors are afraid of two things. They want to know what’s going on with the risk of recession. If they’re afraid of a recession, they’re going to put all their money into bonds because that’s a safe place to put your money during a recession that’s going to bring down mortgage rates. But at the same time, they’re afraid of inflation, and if inflation comes, they don’t want their money in bonds or they’re going to demand a higher yield, a higher interest rate to lend the government money. And so that could push mortgage rates up. But investors, generally speaking, bond investors seem pretty split. I mean, if I asked you all listening or watching this right now to raise your hand, who thinks that there’s going to be a recession? I bet about half of you would raise your hand.
I actually did this at a meetup the other day, and about half the people raise their hand and say, I’m more afraid of a recession. The other people say, I actually think I am more afraid of inflation, right? They’re about split right now. And if that is happening in the bond market, that means mortgage rates can’t really go anywhere because half the market wants higher yields, the other half is going to push yields down. So we’re basically stuck with mortgage rates until some of this uncertainty works itself out. I think that’s true even if the fed cuts rates, I think the probability of the fed cutting rates as of now I’m recording this in mid-June, is probably going up based on recent activity. Some weakness in the labor market, inflation has stayed low, so the probability of rate cuts going up and that could help rates a little bit, but I don’t think that’s going to give us some big benefits, some big leg down in terms of mortgage rates.
It might be marginal. So that’s what’s going on with the macroeconomics. But let’s shift now. We’ve done the data. We’ve talked about the national market, we’ve talked about regional markets, we’ve even talked about bond yields. Now let’s talk about strategy. What do you actually do with this information to guide your own portfolio and investing decisions? We’re going to get into that right after this quick break. Stick with us before we take a break. I want to give everyone a heads up that BiggerPockets is hosting a deal analysis challenge this week only from June 16th to June 23rd. If you analyze seven deals using BiggerPockets calculators during that time, you could be entered to win in a random drawing, a BiggerPockets Pro membership, a free general admissions ticket to BP Con 2025 in Vegas, and a $100 gift card to the BiggerPockets store and to biggerpockets.com/seven deals. That’s the number seven deals for all the info on how to enter.
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I’m Dave Meyer here sharing with you the latest news about the housing market as of June, 2025. So far we’ve talked about some national, regional trends as well as the macroeconomic climate, but I want to talk about strategy now because of course this stuff matters the data, but at the end of the day, it’s what you do with this information that actually is going to make a difference in your investing portfolio and on your journey to financial freedom and improving your financial situation. So let’s talk about strategy. And the first thing I want to talk about is the opportunities, right? I said at the top of the show that in these type of buyer’s market, there is risk, but there is also going to be opportunity. I found this study the other day that shows that the typical sale price, so what something actually transacts for is now 30 grand, $30,000 lower than the list price that’s on a national average.
So people can put their house on the market for whatever, they can list it for anything that they think that they can get, but as of right now, people are actually bidding down those prices, 30 K lower, and hopefully as an investor you were seeing the opportunity here. That means, again, like I said, buyers have the power to negotiate. When I first got started in real estate, it was 2010, so it was similar. It was in a buyer’s market, and you would never bid asking price or above asking price never. Things were sitting on the market for 45, 60 days. That was normal back then, and so you would always come in lower and see if the seller was willing to negotiate. Now, in this market, there are still things that are priced competitively. There are some properties that you need to bid competitively on. That is true, but there are going to be a lot of overpriced property, and that is exactly where this risk and reward comes in because you as an investor face that risk of buying something that you can get for cheaper.
And in this type of market, you have to be very, very disciplined about your acquisition price. You need to be making sure that you are buying for less than current comps because if the market’s going to decline 2% or 3%, you need to be buying today 2% or 3% below what current comps are going for. That is how you protect yourself and take advantage of this market, right? That is the way that you balance risk and reward. You look for the opportunities to negotiate down because sellers are going to compete for your attention and for your dollars, but you need to really make sure that you are driving down that price enough so that prices go down. You’re not left holding the bag or catching the falling knife. Just to give you some more information here, the median asking price in the US right now is $425,000, but what they’re actually selling for is 3 97.
And so that gives you a lot of wiggle room. And what you need to do is negotiate, like I said, and to be patient because inevitably, some of these negotiations, I’d say probably the majority of these negotiations aren’t going to go your way. And I know I said that you have the power, and that is true, but some sellers are just not willing to negotiate at this point. They haven’t felt enough pain, and that might not be true on a national level, but you are likely going to encounter some sellers who are a, just stubborn, B, not motivated, and they put out a price, and they’re saying to themselves, they’re saying to their agent, I’ll sell it if I get my price, but if not, I’m just going to pull it back off the market. You’re going to encounter those people. Or there are some people who are just saying, I’ll wait 60 days or I’ll wait 90 days or 120 days before I am willing to lower prices.
And so the strategy that you need to employ is to be patient. You really need to be willing to walk away from deals. You need to be willing to come up with your number, run your numbers, figure out what you’re willing to pay and really stick to that. You don’t normally want to do this, but there was a period from 2020 to 2023 where you could get away with sort of being loosey goosey on your acquisition price. This is not the time to do that. It is the time to be really disciplined about what you’re willing to buy and what you’re willing to pay for it. And if you do that, you are going to be able to take advantage of a lot of the long-term upsides in the housing market. If you buy below market value, when things start to pick up again, that’s when you’re going to get a lot of appreciation leveraged depreciation, which will drive huge returns for a lot of people.
But you have to again, not be one of those people who’s buying something that is unrealistically priced. So that’s the number one thing I would recommend around strategy is just negotiate and be patient. The second thing is, personally, this is what I’m doing. You can choose to do differently, but what I recommend right now is to invest for things other than appreciation. I hope that appreciation will come back. I just expect it to be flat or negative this year. It could be flat or negative next year. We really just don’t have enough information right now. And I know that can sound scary for people because appreciation is one of the massive big drivers of wealth building in real estate, but you could still benefit from real estate without short-term appreciation. We still need long-term appreciation because if you’re a buy and hold investor like me, we still need appreciation to start up again in the next couple of years, but my assumption is that appreciation is always going to average out to that three 4%, and I’m okay with that.
So if it doesn’t go, we had years of huge appreciation. So if we have a few years of flatter or even negative appreciation, that’s okay because when it starts to balance out in a couple of years, then you’ll make it up again, but you need to be able to make it a good investment right now, you don’t want to put your money into something that’s not appreciation and also isn’t benefiting you in any other way. That is very silly, that is speculation, and you don’t want to do that. And so when I am evaluating deals right now, I personally am focusing a lot more on three things. The first is cashflow, and I know people have different opinions on that, but I believe that right now in this kind of market, you need deals that at least break even cashflow. And I mean real cashflow, not that social media cashflow you’re taking into account CapEx, vacancy, turnover costs, all of that, you need to be at least break even cashflow.
These properties need to pay for themselves during a period of really good appreciation because that’s going to make sure that you can hold onto that property for the next period of appreciation. That’s the main thing about cashflow. It could also give you some money in your pocket, which is great, but the main thing you want to do with that cashflow is make sure you can buy right now because you’re going to get a good deal, but then you can hold onto it until the next expansion cycle that we go into in the housing market. So that’s the first thing I’m looking for. The second thing that I’m buying for is tax benefits. That’s always around in real estate. Those are true that cashflow is going to be offset a lot by depreciation, and I’m not a tax expert, but you can do things like a live and flip if you have real estate professional status, there are great tax benefits you can take advantage of as a real estate investor.
And the third thing is value add. This is really important. It’s a way that you drive appreciation without just waiting for the market to appreciate for you. You actually improve the property and drive up the value of your home. So this can be done with a flip. It can be done with a live-in flip, it can be done with a burr. It can be done with just a regular rental property or a short-term rental. But I believe that right now, because prices are softening, you’re going to be able to buy for better deals right now. You’re going to be able to drive down your acquisition costs where the price for things that are actually renovated and stabilized haven’t gone down that much, and I think there’ll be a little bit more insulated. We’re going to see this sort of split of the market where properties that need a lot of love and a lot of work, they’re going to fall in price faster and farther than properties that are well renovated.
And so if you’re the person to renovate those properties, you’re still going to have a good margin. And so that’s why I think value adds going to become particularly important during this period that we’re in right now. So those are the three things that I’m focusing on. Cashflow, tax benefits, value add. I’m still trying to buy in the path of progress places that I do think appreciation is going to come back, but I just want to be clear with everyone that I am not feeling super confident about appreciation coming back in 2025. We’ll see about 2026, but I think it makes most sense for investors right now to assume that you’re not getting market appreciation this year or next year. That’s just the safe, prudent thing to do. Maybe you think I’m wrong, that’s fine. Maybe you think I am underestimating the risk. That’s also fine.
But I think we’re going to probably see a modest correction in housing prices on a national basis. And even in the hot markets, we’ll see a cooling of those markets. And so I think it makes sense to just be very conservative right now with your underwriting and your estimates about what deals are going to do. And if I’m wrong and appreciation takes off, that is a good thing. That’s great. You’ll be happy to be wrong on that, but right now, you need a shift in mindset from investors to sort of capital preservation, being cautious, buying good long-term assets, but not overestimating what returns are going to be in the next 12 months, right? That’s what I think is really important. And this strategy might be thinking, oh, that is very cautious, or maybe I just won’t invest at all. But this is honestly how people have been investing forever before this Goldilocks period where appreciation went crazy during the 2010s and early 2020s, this is how people invested, right?
You needed to have cashflow, you needed to be able to add value, you needed tax benefits. You couldn’t just buy a house and wait for it to go up in price. That is speculation. And yes, it worked for a little while, but the fact that it may not work over the next couple of years is not abnormal. That is normal real estate investing. And so if you focus on cashflow and tax benefits, value add, you buy in the path to progress. You look for zoning upsides. If you find these upsides, there are still great assets that you can buy, and there are still good deals for real estate investors. So that’s how I am thinking about it. That’s how I’m personally going to be handling my own portfolio. Hopefully this information is helpful to you. As I said at the beginning of the show, right now, there are opportunities and there are risks.
The key is to be informed investor, know what is going on in the national level, know what is going on in a macroeconomic level, know what is going on in your market. And if you do those three things, and this sounds like a lot, it’s not that hard. Spend an hour a month studying these things. Spend a couple of minutes every week talking to other investors or agents or just meeting with property managers. Figure out what’s going on in your market and you will be able to find opportunities. This is happening in the markets I operate in. Every investor I know is saying that deals are easy to come by. Again, you have to mitigate those risks, but if you are diligent and informed, you will be able to find opportunities in this market. Like I said, I recommend being very conservative when you underwrite these deals, but keep your eyes open. That’s going to be the key to managing the next couple of months, maybe even the next year or two in the housing market. Thank you all so much for watching or listening. I’m Dave Meyer, the head of real estate for BiggerPockets. I’ll see you next time.

 

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Ashley Kehr:
Are you ready to buy your first or next investment property?

Tony Robinson:
You are in the right place.

Ashley Kehr:
I am Ashley Care.

Tony Robinson:
And I’m Tony j Robinson. And this is the Real Estate’s Rookie podcast.

Ashley Kehr:
Not long ago, we were just like you we’re trying to make a little extra cash to hopefully leave our nine to fives.

Tony Robinson:
Now we’ve built rental portfolios, quit our jobs and hit financial freedom, and it all started with that first deal. One property can change everything

Ashley Kehr:
Like the couple who bought six rentals and just 15 months while working three jobs,

Tony Robinson:
Or the couple who purchased six rental properties in just 15 months.

Ashley Kehr:
Or the single dad who went from $17 an hour to $200,000 a year and passive income in just a decade.

Tony Robinson:
Every week on the Real Estate Rookie podcast, we bring on rookies who are doing it right now and they’ll show you exactly how they got started, their strategies and the steps to repeat their success.

Ashley Kehr:
We’ll answer your real estate questions, talk about real rental properties and how much they’re making, and give you the step-by-step strategies we wish we knew when we were rookies.

Tony Robinson:
No jargon, no gatekeeping, just real rookies, real stories and real financial freedom.

Ashley Kehr:
New episodes come out every week, that’s three times a week.

Tony Robinson:
Tap subscribe so you don’t miss any episode drops on YouTube. Just search real estate rookie today.

Ashley Kehr:
Before we jump in, I want to tell you about when I bought my first rental. I thought collecting rent would be the hardest part, but I was wrong. The admin never stops expenses, receipts, tax forms, tenant issues. I didn’t expect the behind the scenes work to take up so much of my time and Headspace every night was another round of paperwork and I started thinking, if it’s like this with one, how do people handle five or 10 Base? Lane helped me get out of the weeds. It’s the official banking platform of BiggerPockets that handles the whole backend for me. Expense tracking, financial reporting, rent collection, even tenant screening. It’s the first time I felt in control and now that I’m not drowning in admin, I finally see how my real estate business can scale. If you’re starting out, do yourself a favor. Sign [email protected] slash bp today and you’ll get a hundred dollars bonus.

Tony Robinson:
I went to a conference last week and had the opportunity to speak with other investors who found so much relief from using Base Lane. So guys, make sure to check them out. Now let’s get into today’s first question. Today we’re doing it a little differently. We took the top three questions we see most commonly asked instead of pulling specific questions. So let’s jump into the first question.

Ashley Kehr:
Okay, today’s first question is how do I finance my first real estate deal? And this could also be tailored to how I fund your first real estate deal. So the first thing you need to do is look at your own finances. Do you have any money to put into the deal? Do you have money for reserves? What does your situation look like? So the first thing I’m going to recommend is what cash do you have? What do you already have that’s liquid that you can deploy into your first real estate investment? So now that you have that amount, we’re going to find out where else you can find money. So Tony, should we start with maybe just conventional financing loans?

Tony Robinson:
Yeah, and I think when people think about traditional financing, this is what comes to mind for most people when they think about buying real estate, this is the model that comes to mind, but it’s basically you go out to a bank, you plop down 20 to 25% and then they give you the other 75 to 80% of that mortgage. And I think this one is probably maybe the most widely known, probably the easiest to kind of find. And it’s one that we’ve met lots of folks both just at conferences through our interviews in the rookie podcast that they’ve used this to get their first deal. So there’s absolutely nothing wrong with going this route. If you want something that’s quick, simple, and maybe just widely available from lots of different banks and lots of different lenders. Now is it the best route? That probably depends on you, depends on your deal, it depends on what it is you’re trying to put together, but I think it is one of the easier ways to get started.
Now, what I will say is we talk through the different types of funding options that are out there. And maybe this is even a good thing to say before Ash, there’s a few different places you can go to get money to buy your first deal. You can go to a traditional bank, bank of America, chase, you can go to, and those are like the large national global banks. You can go to small local, regional banks or credit unions. It’s another option. You can go to hard money lenders, and these are our businesses who kind of specialize in funding deals for real estate investors, typically a little bit more expensive than some of the other options. And then your final option is using something like a private money lender. So this is someone who’s not in the business of lending money, but they lend money as a way to just generate better returns on the capital that they have, right? They’re individual investors. So you’ve got the big National Bank of America, chase Banks, the local regional banks and credit unions, hard money and then private money.

Ashley Kehr:
Tony, one more to add to that, and I honestly don’t even know the proper classification, but they’re not a bank and they’re not really a hard money lender, but a mortgage broker where they don’t work for a specific lender and they go out and they shop the loan for you. So they are their own little company and they go out and you give them your information, the property information, and they actually go and shop it for you almost like an insurance broker would for an insurance policy. And they go and find what loan product would fit you, which one is going to give you the best rate, which one has the cheapest closing cost. And so that is just another one to kind of throw into the options there As a mortgage broker.

Tony Robinson:
And the mortgage brokers are great because they can, like you said, give you access to all types of those loans. They might have connections with hard money, private money, credit unions, et cetera. But I think the biggest thing for Ricky’s that are listening is talk to as many potential funding options as you can. I think where Ricky sometimes get into troubles when they just go with the first lending option that they come into contact with and they just assume that whatever that person is offering is all that there is that’s out there. But as you spend more time in the world of real estate investing, you start to figure out that every single lender has a slightly different suite of products that they can offer you. And what your local Bank of America branch is offering you is probably very different than what the hard money lenders offering you and what the hard money lenders offering you is very different than what your local credit union could be able to offer you or the local regional bank. So talk to as many people from as many different of those buckets as possible before you make your decision about what loan product to use.

Ashley Kehr:
And all you have to do is write up an email, tell them your situation, what your finance is like. If you have an idea of what your credit score is, how much cash you have available now, tell them what you want to do, copy and paste that. Just change Dear Soandso and go on to each bank’s website and find one of the lenders on there or just fill out their contact form with that information and they’ll send it to the right person within those banks. And what you’re doing is even if you don’t feel like you’re ready yet and you know that you don’t have enough saved or your credit score isn’t great, the bank can help you figure out here’s what you need to do to get that property. And it’s so much better to prepare and plan ahead than waiting to like, oh my God, this is a perfect deal, the perfect property. I need to figure out right now with the bank what I need to do and how to get approved and what’s going to make this happen. But if you, right now, even if you think you’re not ready to buy a property, start this process with a lender as to what you need to have in place in order to actually get a loan from them.

Tony Robinson:
And I just want to give one hack to help expedite this process. Chad, GPTI actually did this a couple months ago. I put in this prompt, I said, I need a list of 100 unique banks and credit unions within a 50 mile radius of my hometown. I said, exclude any large national banks like Chase or Bank of America, et cetera. Chad, GBT came back and asked me a few questions to clarify, and after that it worked for 62 minutes. So it took its 62 minutes to put this together, but it came back with a list of 100 different banks and credit unions within a 50 mile radius, many of which I’d never heard of before. So this is how easy it is to go out there and get that list. Now you just have to go in there and do the work and actually pick up the phone or start sending some emails to get in contact with those folks. And I think Ash, we say this all the time as you’re reaching out to folks, don’t tell them that you’re looking for a 15% down investor loan, right? Tell them, Hey, I’m a real estate investor. Here’s the end objective that I’m trying to reach. What is the best loan product you have to fit those needs?

Ashley Kehr:
So besides just financing or getting a loan from a lender, a bank, there’s also some creative finance and one of the best ones that I like is seller finance, where the seller is actually going to hold the mortgage. So at closing, typically the bank would give the money that you’re borrowing to the seller and they walk away and they get their lump sum of cash, and now you owe the bank money for that loan. Well, in seller financing, the person is not getting that lump sum of money. They say, instead of you going out and getting a loan or you giving me cash of a lump sum for whatever the purchase price is, you are going to make monthly payments to me or whatever the payment structure is going to be. So they’re holding the note, they’re holding the mortgage, so they’re not getting that lump sum unless you are putting down a down payment.
So for example, I did a seller finance deal where I did $20,000 down. So at closing they got $20,000. Then we also filed a mortgage with the county saying that I owed the seller a hundred thousand dollars and it was amortized over 15 years and it had a balloon payment in 12 months. So in 12 months I would pay them the full balance. And in the meantime, over those 12 months, I was paying interest only, and I don’t remember exactly, I think the interest was 7% for this example. So I was making interest only payments of 7%. So they earned the interest on that money instead of a bank. My payment was pretty low because I wasn’t paying principal and interest, it was just interest. And that gave me time to fix up the property over those 12 months. And then I went and refinanced with the bank.
You could set the nice thing about seller financing. You can set it up any way possible. You could set it up that you’re only paying 1% interest. You could set it up that it’s amortized over 40 years. So you’re taking that purchase price and you’re splitting it up over 40 years. That really is going to decrease what your payment is and hopefully increase your cashflow. So there’s lots of different options. And my one advice with that is if you are talking with a seller or a real estate agent and you say, would you be able to seller financing? And if they say no, my response is always, oh, okay, I didn’t know if you had talked to your CPA or your accountant about the tax advantages of it. And usually that gets them a little more curious as to wait, what would the benefit be to me? So kind of just throwing that into the conversation.

Tony Robinson:
And I think seller financing is one of the best, and I think it will depend maybe on your market and kind of where you’re at. Pace morbid will probably say otherwise that you can do seller financing at any market at any time. But he’s probably perfected that in a way that many of us haven’t. But even for us, the first hotel that we bought, we did that via seller financing as well. And it was a great deal for us. It was a great deal for them and it worked. And that’s also part of the reason why I’m so bullish right now on the kind of small boutique hotels and motels because there is a lot of opportunity for seller financing there as well. So depending on your asset class, depending on where you’re at, it may be more available. And Ash, I don’t know. I mean, lemme get your experience. Do you feel like it’s maybe easier to get seller financing on multifamily than it is on single family?

Ashley Kehr:
I think it’s easier to get seller financing from an investor. So say you have somebody that owns the property, that it’s not their primary residence, they’ve held it as an investment property, I think you have. And they’re also savvy in a sense that they realize the tax advantages of doing this. A lot of it does depend too on what their reason is for selling. So do they need the money? And I think that’s such an important piece to create a financing, is to figure out why are they selling? What do they need the money for? What are their motivations? So you can kind of work around that to make a deal that is a win for them and a win for you.

Tony Robinson:
So there you have it. Those are all the options or at least some of the options you have to help fund that first real estate deal. So go back to this episode when you find that diamond in the rough deal that you’re looking to take down. Now we got a few more questions to answer. We’re going to talk about licensing, we’re going to talk about some important metrics that you need to know as a rookie investor. But first we’re going to take a quick break to hear a word from today’s show sponsors. Alright guys, welcome back. So we just finished talking about financing your deal. Now we’re going to talk about a question that comes up a lot. And that question is, do I need a license to be a real estate investor?

Ashley Kehr:
I’ve probably spent about $500 signing up to take the course three or four times. I’ve probably gotten 25% way through the course, but being a real estate agent is definitely not for me. So I would say that Tony and I have been real estate investors and we do not have our license. So let’s kind of go through the pros and cons because there’s definitely advantages to having your real estate license. But I would say that no, you definitely do not need your license to invest in real estate.

Tony Robinson:
And I think, I dunno, what are some other examples we can give in life? I know how to drive a vehicle and I can drive my car from point A to point B, but can I give you a detailed breakdown of the inner workings of that vehicle and how the fuel goes from my gas tank to the engine and all the things that happen in between there? Absolutely not. Can I turn on my television and enjoy my favorite show on Netflix? Absolutely. I know exactly how to work my tv, but can I tell you how the signal gets from Netflix servers and lands on my TV thousands of miles away? Absolutely not. So I think it is the same thing, right? As a real estate investor, knowing how to use the tool is sometimes enough and you don’t necessarily need to know the inner workings of the tool itself. So as long as I know how to work with real estate agents, as long as I know how to work with wholesalers, as long as I have a means of acquiring those deals, I don’t necessarily need to know the inner workings of the tool and how it’s working.

Ashley Kehr:
Yeah, I think the thing that came to me, an example was a car salesman. If you buy cars and maybe you fix ’em up a little bit and you’d sell them or you’re buying cars to put on to Turo or whatever. As a car salesman working at a dealership, you’re going to most of the time be the, when people come to trade their car in, you’re going to know first this person is looking to sell their old car, just like an agent may know first that someone’s looking to sell their house. But most of the time if you’re in the business of buying a car, put it on Turo to rent it out or you’re fixing them up because you’re a mechanic, you’re most likely not also going to be a car salesman, but maybe say you are a mechanic and you want to find cars to flip or whatever, that would be a parallel business that you would be doing the horizontal integration.
We do see a lot of business owners do that where it’s like, oh, it makes sense to also do this and also do this and things like that. But for this circumstance, yes, you can bring in additional income as a real estate agent. You won’t have to pay a commission to somebody else for buying and selling any of the properties that you own. But there is a cost to being a real estate agent. And there is time put into being that one of the big reasons I do not want to get my real estate license and I would not want to buy or sell properties for myself is I don’t want to do the paperwork. I don’t want to fill out the contract. I don’t want to have to go back and forth with the other agent trying to figure out details and things like that. I don’t want to have to schedule showings when there are tenants in place. I love having a real estate agent that communicates directly with the tenants and when they’re showings, and I am just completely out of that, but I don’t even know what the cost is. But to maintain your real estate license, there’s a cost. You have to have your license with a broker who takes a percentage of that commission. And then you also have to do continuing education too throughout the year. So that’s more schooling than I definitely do not want to do.

Tony Robinson:
And we’re talking more about the cons. I guess maybe some of the benefits of getting your license. You’ve got access to the best data for your specific market, my understanding that not everything always makes it onto the, and sometimes there could be a delay, a lag there, so you get access to the best information. And you can also, like I’ve seen the backend of the MLS or gotten data from there, and definitely the ability to manipulate the information inside is a lot stronger on the MLS than it is on a Zillow or Redfin. So even that piece I think has beneficial

Ashley Kehr:
Just the seller’s notes or the agent’s notes. I’ve gotten the listing from my agent directly instead of from the MLS. And there’ll be a private little note section where sometimes I’ve seen that they’ll put what the rents are for the tenant and you can get a copy of the rent rider and there’s a lot more that you can have access to as a licensed agent than just looking on Zillow to your point. But that’s a big one is knowing what the rents are and stuff that can expedite, yes, this is a good deal for you or not.

Tony Robinson:
So the quality of data is potentially better if you have direct MLS access. I think the other piece is say that you are someone who flips homes and you want to maybe save on commissions. That’s another great reason maybe to get your license if you can list these properties yourself and actually be good at it because you could list yourself, be your own agent and do a terrible job, and you end up losing more than whatever 5% you would’ve paid, or two and a half percent really you would’ve paid in commissions. But say you can be good at it, then maybe you can save a little bit on your commissions as well. So I think those are probably the big benefits and you have a deeper working knowledge of the transactional side, all the forms, the disclosures and all those things that go into it.
But I think Ash back to a conversation we have with David Green, our friend of BiggerPockets who wrote the book sold, he’s an agent, he’s a real estate investor. And I remember asking him this question, he said, unless you want to be a top producing agent and a real estate investor, don’t get your license. If you just want to have it just to have it, it’s probably not worth it. But if you actually want to build a business around being an agent, then it’s most likely worthwhile. So I always keep that in the back of my mind when I hear folks ask, should I get my license? It’s like, well, do you want to make this a business? And if the answer is no, then okay, is it really worth the time, effort, and energy that goes into acquiring and maintaining that license?

Ashley Kehr:
Yeah, and that’s another thing too, is you can create a business out of this. This could be another source of income for you. So I mean, if that’s something you want to do, that can be a huge benefit to you. So yeah, I think it’s more just personal preference as to, because you could also say, Tony, you should actually get your GC license. You’ll save a lot of money not paying eight 10% to a GC to oversee your project. And that’s actually more than when an agent would make on commission after she splits it and after the broker is. So there’s other things that you could do to save money too. So just something to think about is if you want to have another additional source of income that is real estate related, then there’s other options for you out there too. Okay, we’re going to take our last break, but when we come back, we’re going to talk about a cap rates and why does it actually matter or does it? We’ll be right back.
Okay. Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast. Today we’re breaking down three of the most commonly asked questions by rookie investors. And this one is talking about metrics. What is a cap rate and why does it matter? So cap rates are often talked about a lot in small multifamily, large multifamily commercial properties, and you oftentimes don’t see it mentioned much for residential deals. Single family homes are not commonly, this isn’t a huge metric used for that. You see cash on cash return, 1% rule, there’s all these other metrics you can head over to biggerpockets.com/glossary. And if you ever hear words on the podcast or metrics that you’re not sure about, you can go ahead and there’s a tremendous list of these different terms and information that you can go ahead and pull this information from. So Tony, tell us what is the cap rate of your boutique hotel?

Tony Robinson:
Yeah, so we bought that property and gosh, I can’t remember what the cap rate was at the time of purchase, but at least in that area, the prevailing cap rates for hotels of that size, or I want to say somewhere in nine to 10%. And typically cap rates on hotels are higher than what you see for like multifamily. But the reason that the cap rates are so much more important on the commercial side is because that’s a big part of how those properties are valued. So we talk about properties trading or selling at certain cap rates, and ideally you want to buy at a higher cap rate and then sell at a lower cap rate in that spread is where you’re able to generate a lot of value. But yeah, cap rates are going to vary just like cash and cash return varies for single family homes. Cap rates are going to vary from market to market, and maybe 10% is a good cap rate for commercial hospitality property in Utah, but maybe 6% is a good cap rate in the beaches of California. So it’s going to vary from place to place. But yeah, ours was somewhere in that nine to 10% range.

Ashley Kehr:
And the cap rate is calculated by what you’re not operating income is, so your income minus your expenses. So this is very different than cashflow because it doesn’t include any principle to say your mortgage that you’re paying on the property or any debt that you’re paying, and then that’s the operating income is divided by the purchase price of what you purchase the property for. Or if you’re just looking at an evaluation, you can also use the market value of what the property is currently valued at. A couple things to take into account, just like any other metric or statistic, is that this shouldn’t be what you base your decision on. Oh, this is a great deal, this is a bad deal. There’s other factors to take into consideration, such as appreciation, how you’re going to finance the property since net operating income doesn’t include your principal payment that you’re paying back, or even capital improvements that will need to take place on the property too over the course of the next five, 10 years.

Tony Robinson:
And I think this metric is, I wouldn’t say more advanced, but yeah, I think it’s a little bit more advanced of a metric. And I think for the Ricky’s who are just getting started, as Ashley said, it should only be one of the metrics that you look at, but you’ve got to go back to what is your true motivation for investing in the first place? Are you looking to strictly maximize cashflow? I just want the highest dollar amount per month that I can get. Then that’s one metric. Do you want the best return on your investment? Because sometimes I can get less cash flow, but get a better return on my investment. For example, if I put down 25% on a property, my cash flow is going to be higher, but my cash on cash return will be lower. If I put down 10%, cashflow might be lower, but my return on that investment is going to be higher. So what’s important to you? Do you want to maximize cashflow? Do you want to maximize your cash on cash return? Do you want to maximize your appreciation? Do you want to maximize your tax benefits? Take all of those kind of key metrics, cap rate included and use those together to make your investing decision. But yeah, to Ash’s point, I think just relying on cap rate can sometimes get you into hot water.

Ashley Kehr:
Yeah, you can also go to biggerpockets.com/bigger deals and you can play around and look up different properties on the mls and it’ll compute the cap rate for you. And you can kind of see how maybe a single family home would compare to a smaller multifamily property that’s listed in the same market. And also just to get an idea of what cap rates look like in your area. So you could pull up your market and bigger deals and go through and just easily glance. And as you’re scrolling, it literally shows it to you right there. So you don’t have to take the time to figure it out for each property. It’s already telling you what the cap rate is for each one.

Tony Robinson:
So guys, look, trust me, if you’ve been stuck on questions like these, you are not alone. Every investor starts with the same curiosity and confusion, but the more you ask, the faster you grow.

Ashley Kehr:
And also remember, real estate isn’t about having all the answers right away. It’s about taking the next right stop. Start by exploring your financing options and don’t stress about getting a license and make sure you’re learning how to run your numbers

Tony Robinson:
Today. We have a bonus guide just for rookies like you to give out. So make sure you check out the tenant screening guide that Ashley put together with Rent Ready. It’s a great next step. If you’re looking for your first tenant, it’s free to download and you can find it at biggerpockets.com/tenant screening. And also, don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review and share this episode with someone else who’s just getting started.

Ashley Kehr:
I’m Ashley. And he’s Tony. Also a big thank you to Base Lane for sponsoring today’s episode. And don’t forget to go to base lane.com/bp to get your $100 bonus. Thanks for watching, and we’ll see you guys next time.

 

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How do investors feel about today’s housing market and what does it mean for your real estate portfolio? On this episode, OTM host Dave Meyer digs into recent investor surveys by Stessa and ResiClub to provide insights into investor plans and market trends. You’ll learn how investors are planning to navigate the real estate market in the next year, including some diverging regional trends. Plus, Dave breaks down the latest inflation report and discusses the impacts of immigration policy on housing affordability and how tariffs could impact mortgage rates in the coming months.

Dave:
How are investors feeling about today’s housing market? Because we all know what the media is saying. We all know what our crazy uncle or our friend thinks about the housing market, but what about those of us who are actually on the ground buying and selling real estate, managing properties and preparing for the future? Are those types of people buying or are they selling everything and trying to get out for good? And what does broad investor sentiment tell us about our own investments in the first place today and on the market? We are digging into two recent surveys that are going to give us a couple of the answers to these super important questions, and we’ll also be talking about the most recent inflation report to give you all of the information you need to be an informed and an effective real estate investor.
Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market. Today we’re going to be diving deep into three different topics. Two of them sort of coincidentally just happened to be surveys that I found super interesting and I think are going to shed some important light on how Americans are feeling about housing and housing affordability, how investors are thinking about growing or maybe shrinking their portfolio in the coming years. And of course we will talk about the recent inflation report and what that means for Fed decisions over the rest of this year. So we’ve got a great show for you. Let’s jump in. The first story is actually a summary of a recent survey that was done by two sort of big reputable names in the real estate investing community. It’s ssa, which is an asset management and accounting software for real estate investors that is owned by Roofstock and Resi Club, which is a great residential real estate analytics firm.
And basically they paired up to do an investor sentiment survey to try and understand how investors are feeling about the housing market right now at least I was excited to see this survey and this data because we often hear about how agents, how lenders, how first time home buyers are feeling about the housing market, all of which is important, but it is much harder to find information and relevant data about what real estate investors are actually thinking about this market. So what sess and Resit Club did was they went out and they surveyed 239 single family investors and landlords. So this was people who own at least one single family investment property. So this is not primary residence, they have to actually be a landlord. So there’s a ton of really good information here and I’m going to break it all down for you because I think it really helps understand and sort of just set a baseline for what we expect to happen this year.
And I always just think it’s helpful to understand how other investors are thinking about the market because outside of this show, for example, where I get to talk to Henry and Kathy and James about what they’re doing, getting that sort of insight into what investors are doing in aggregate is kind of hard. So what are they doing let’s into this thing. So the main headline here is that 45% of real estate investors say they plan to grow their portfolio in the near term. Now at first because I think this is the first time they’ve done this data, they don’t have a time series. We can’t go back and see how this compares to how people were feeling in 2015 or 2020 or whatever because the survey just didn’t exist then. So we sort of have to take this as a snapshot. So I was kind of just trying to think about is that high, is that low?
And I actually think it’s relatively high because I think realistically even in the best market conditions, some people might just not have enough money. A lot of investors need to save money between acquisitions or they have a buy and hold strategy. Maybe they’re just in a different phase of their investing career. So having nearly half of investors surveyed say that they plan to grow their portfolio is a little bit higher than I was expecting. I was sort of guessing it might’ve been about a third, but it was actually 45%. But one of the most fascinating elements of this is that they actually break down investor intention by region. And I think this is super interesting and important for investors who operate in some of these regions. So where people are planning to buy and expand and where people are planning to exit and maintain is actually pretty different.
We talk about real estate being local and that is definitely showing up in the data here, but I will admit it is more different than I thought. For example, the Midwest, which you all know I’m long on, I’ve been touting the benefits of the Midwest for several years now. In the Midwest, 58% of investors say that they plan to grow their portfolio, which is really high and only 4.2% of people say that they plan to exit. So that is by far the most active market. On the total opposite end of the spectrum, we’re talking about the west coast of the United States, you get less than half of that 27%, and I’m rounding here, but 27% compared to 58%. So only about one quarter of people in the west plan to grow in the Midwest. It is more than half with everyone else in between. So the other regions that we see here are the northeast is 37%, the southwest at 51% and the southeast also at 51%.
So they’re pretty spread out with the west being by far the least intention to grow their portfolio. Now I think it’s important to understand that these are probably trends that have existed for a while. The west is very expensive and if you’re surveying landlords, that is just not a super popular place to be a landlord, whether it’s because of the price point, the rent to price ratio, the landlord laws, whatever it is not as popular as being a landlord in the Midwest or in the southeast where we’re seeing a higher percentage of who are intending to buy. The other thing that stood out to me is what’s going on in the southeast because it is actually pretty high relatively in terms of how many people intend to buy. It’s higher than the US average, which again US average is 45%. In the Southeast it’s 51%, but at the same time in the southeast that is where the most people plan to exit and just get out, right?
10% of investors, which is a lot, I think 10% of investors in any given year planning to sell their portfolio is a lot. And that is inevitably going to happen when you get in sort of this correction territory that we’re in the southeast, well not all over the southeast, but places like Florida, right? We’re in a correction. So if you’re a landlord and you’ve been around for a while, maybe now is the time to sell. You see a correction coming, there’s a lot of expense increases. It might say, Hey, I’ve had a good run, it’s time to get out. So I’m not super surprised by that, but it is significantly higher than anywhere else in the US nationally it’s 6.5%. So in the southeast it’s about 50% higher than the average. So that is a lot more people looking to get out, whereas the majority of these places, if you look at the west for example, I said that’s the lowest looking to grow.
Only 27% looking to grow. But pretty much everyone who owns property there is planning to hang onto it. 66% of people are just saying they’re going to maintain with only 7% of people saying that they’re going to exit. So you see this that there are very, very different sentiments about the market, whereas the more expensive markets in the northeast and west people really want to maintain but they are not planning to grow. Whereas the more affordable markets like in the southeast and the Midwest, more people are looking to grow. So that was the main headline that we saw there, but I think that there’s some other really interesting data here. I’m going to talk you through what cap rates investors are willing to accept, what mortgage rates they’re willing to accept and the challenges that other investors are seeing in their market. And I’m curious if you see the same thing or you feel the same way as the sentiment that I’m about to share with you.
So next up, let’s talk about mortgage rates because obviously we all know if you listen to this show about the lock-in effect, which has basically controlled inventory and suppressed inventory I should say over the last couple of years because people are locked into these super low mortgage rates and for a while there’s been other survey data by Zillow and John Burns real estate consulting, which I have looked at this question and asked people what mortgage rates they are willing to accept because knowing this actually tells us a lot about what might happen in the housing market. If people were willing to accept a six and a half percent mortgage rate, like say 80% of people would take a six and a half, then the market is not that far from really starting to recover. But if what most people want from a mortgage rates or what they’re willing to accept from a mortgage rate is five or five and a half percent, in my opinion, you could be waiting a long time.
So this data is super interesting and although Zillow has shown five, five and a half percent of what they think people are waiting out for, that’s their single family homes. And so that’s why this data is so valuable because investors act a little bit differently. What we see from investors is yes, a hundred percent of people would take a mortgage rate under 4%. That’s not surprising. Everyone would be crazy not to take that. For under four and a half percent it’s 96% and under 5% it’s 91%. So for all intents and purposes, if we got to a place where mortgage rates were below 5%, investors would probably really start looking to acquire pretty rapidly, but it falls off pretty steadily from there, from five to 5.5%, it drops from 91 down to 82% and just going up to 6% or up to 72%, so it drops off 20%.
So one out of five people are dropping off between five and 6%, and if you go all the way up to 7%, which is where we’re at today, we get to just 50% of people. So that explains a lot of what’s going on in the housing market, right, because we are seeing now 7% mortgages and we have also seen not coincidentally that transaction volume in the housing market has dropped 50% since 2022. So if you’re wondering why have transaction volumes come down, well this data is telling us exactly why 50% of people say they will not accept a mortgage rate above 7%, which we are sort of starting to see. And so that is the reason why transaction volume is not where we want it to be. Now looking forward if we want the housing market to take back off, and when I say take back off, of course people who hold property do want to see prices go up, but even without prices going up, I think it’s beneficial for the economy as a whole and for the industry as a whole just to see transaction volume go up.
We need to see more people buying and selling real estate right now and the data shows us that for every incremental drop in mortgage rates, we will probably see some improvement in transaction volume. So just as an example, if we went from 7% mortgages around where we are today to six and a half percent, about 10% of investors would jump back in. That would make a dent. It’s not huge because investors only make up about 20% of the total market. So that’s 2% overall uptick in transaction volume, but that would matter if we went down to 6%, another 12% would jump in. So now we’re starting to talk that’s about four and a half percent of the overall market. That would make a difference if we could really start to see four and a half, 5% more transactions in the market. That would make a difference for all of the agents out there, for the loan officers out there and the overall economy, which is highly on real estate transactions, it makes up about 16% of GDP, all sorts of real estate, not just transactions constructions included in that too, but that is sort of where we’re at.
And of course if we went back to 5%, we’d basically get all the investors off the sidelines and back into the market. So this sort of helps us if we want to understand where the market is going and if we’re going to see transaction volume pick up. My answer is probably not by that much right now because we’re near 7% and although there is a chance we get closer to 6.5%, I don’t think we’re getting much lower than that and I don’t even know if we’re getting a 6.5%. I have been saying for at least six months, maybe even a year now that I don’t think rates are going down as quickly or as low as people think. And I still believe that, and we’ll talk about this in a couple of minutes with the inflation report, but I still believe that rates are going to stay a bit higher for as long as we have this level of economic uncertainty that we’re in right now.
And so this data is helpful in telling us that maybe transaction volumes aren’t going to recover that quickly, but it does give us hope that when rates do fall, if they do fall, that we will get some of that transaction volume back. It’s just kind of a matter of time. It’s not people saying, I don’t ever want to buy real estate. What they’re saying is it’s too expensive to buy real estate right now. And so with rates where they’re at and prices where they are, some certain segment of the population are not going to transact and we’re learning that directly from the survey in addition to the stuff we’re all just seeing on the ground. Okay, so that’s the second thing we learned from this survey. The third one probably will be really of interest to people who invest in multifamily. If you’re unfamiliar with this term called cap rates, which we’re about to talk about, it helps you sort of evaluate how much value you’re getting for every dollar of net operating income that you’re generating a property with.
So generally speaking, the higher the cap rate, the better it is for the acquirer for the buyer on the side of that transaction. Sellers generally want cap rates to be low because that means they’re earning more for every dollar of net operating income the property produces. So as part of this survey, they asked investors what would be the lowest cap rate they are willing to accept because again, generally acquirers buyers want higher cap rates and what they said is that 65% would accept a cap rate above 6%, which I’m looking at it right now according to CoStar, that’s about where we are. So we’re seeing actually more investors signal a willingness to participate in market conditions in the multifamily market than they were in the single family market. If we’re just comparing how many people would buy with today’s mortgage rates versus how many people would buy with today’s cap rates, people are more interested in today’s cap rates.
Now I should mention that those are not apples to apples comparison because mortgage rates is a financing option. Cap rates is a way of valuing properties, but I think they’re asking these questions because they’re trying to understand how people feel about the residential market with mortgage rates and how investors are feeling about the multifamily market with cap rates. And what we’re seeing is a little bit more willingness to participate in a 6% cap rate. Now, just for some historical context, cap rates bottomed out at about 4.9% in 2021 and 2022. So they have come up quite a lot and that means real savings for buyers because just from cap rates, if all you’re basing the acquisition price of a property on is cap rates, which you shouldn’t, there’s other stuff that matters there, but if you were just trying to do a back of the envelope valuation that shows us that multifamily prices have dropped 25%, right?
Because if you’re just evaluating based on NOI and NOI stays the same. If you were to buy something at a 4.9 cap rate with the same N NOIs, you bought a 6.1 cap rate a couple years later, you would be saving 25% on that asset price below what you would’ve paid in late or early 2022. And so this is why I think more people are interested in a 6% cap rate because they’re already getting a really good discount above where prices were a few years ago. Unsurprisingly, if those cap rates went up to 7%, 100% of the investors surveyed said that they would be interested in that. I don’t blame them. I sure would be interested at a 7% cap rate. That is a very good risk adjusted return even with all of the considerations around debt and insurance and things going on in commercial, if you could buy at a 7% cap rate, to me that is quite a good deal.
Obviously not if it has tons of work and tons of risk, but if the average cap rate went up near 7%, man, it would definitely be buying time for me and clearly a lot of other investors think the same way. So those were the main three highlights from this survey from Resi Club and essa. But there are a couple other things I’ll just go over quickly. They also asked how real estate investors manage their own portfolio. I was kind of shocked by this 58%. I kind of thought that it would be a little bit less than that, but I guess when you only have a couple properties in your investing in state, it makes a lot of sense to self-manage. It’s a better financial decision. And so 58% of people self-manage, 22% use a property management company. 17% do sort of a hybrid approach, which is what I do, or 3% actually has a property manager but not a professional one.
So a business partner or a family member who actually does that. So that was kind of interesting. The majority, a lot, nearly 60% of people self-manage and only 22% less than a quarter use professional property management companies. That was pretty interesting. And then the other thing I just wanted to share with people, because I think sometimes misery loves company and they ask people what the most frustrating part of the buying process is according to investors, and I bet you can guess, what do you guys think the most frustrating part is? Well number one in the United States by two thirds, two thirds of investors said the most frustrating part is finding deals that cashflow that is not surprising to me. The second thing was competing with other buyers or investors. The third was running the numbers or analyzing deals. The fourth was getting financing and then the last was understanding neighborhoods or comps.
These actually break down differently by region investors in the west. 78% of them are saying they can’t find cashflow, whereas in the other end, Midwest, 54% of people are saying that they can find cashflow. So that is definitely encouraging, but if you have been struggling to find cashflow, particularly in the west or the southwest, you are not alone. It sounds like half to two thirds of investors feel the same way, and that is the most frustrating part of being a real estate investor right now. So those are some of the highlights from the Resi Club and STAA survey. I will make sure to put a link to this article that summarizes the data in the show notes if you want to check out the rest of it. We do actually have two more stories to share with you. First we’ll talk about the inflation report and then another study by Redfin about housing affordability. Stay with us. We have a quick break, but we’ll be right back with those two stories.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer here, sharing with you three new stories that I’ve been paying attention to this week and giving you my reaction. Before the break, we talked a lot about a recent survey from Resi Club and ESSA talking about how investors plan to handle the next year. But honestly, I think the way investors might handle the next year is going to be highly dependent on interest rates and mortgage rates. I’ve been saying for quite a while now that I think the whole housing market is depending on affordability, right? That is what ultimately everything comes down to these days is how affordable are homes for the average price investor for the average price American. And the answer right now is not very affordable. We’re near 40 year lows, 35 year lows for housing affordability. And so when we look at this survey, it’s really based, I think largely on people thinking rates are high right now and are going to stay high.
The reason I wanted to share this inflation report today is because a lot of what’s going to happen with affordability comes down to mortgage rates, which comes down to what the Fed does in some ways and comes down to inflation. Inflation really dictates mortgage rates in two ways. First, as I just mentioned, it influences what the Fed does and the Fed influences mortgage rates. So that’s one sort of less direct way that inflation influences mortgage rates, but there’s actually an even more influential meaning of the inflation report, and that is what it does to bond yields because bond yields are almost directly correlated with mortgage rates. And so when inflation fears go up, bond yields go and that takes mortgage rates up with them. So we want to be paying attention to what’s going on with the CPI, what’s going on with different measurements of inflation.
And just last week as of June 11th, we got data about consumer price index and what it shows was that inflation went up in May, but really only modestly inflation as measured by the CPI, which is a consumer price index went up to 2.4% year over year. So what that means is on average with the methodology that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses, which is complicated and a little bit confusing, but using the method that they use from this point last year to this point, prices on average have went up 2.4%. Now within that basket, that is a big average. And so within that average you see certain things that have had way more inflation over the last year and also certain things that have way less inflation. So just as an example, housing costs and shelter have had more inflation than 2.4%. Auto insurance I think led the way it was like 7.5% in terms of inflation over the last year.
Meanwhile, certain things like gasoline and airline tickets have actually fallen modestly. So take that all with a grain of salt because when you compare what’s going on with inflation on these reports to your life, you might not see it reflected. You probably have something that’s bothering you that’s gone up a lot. This happens to all of us, but that might not actually be the main thing that’s driving inflation. Or you may see something you care about that has gone up 7% when this thing is only showing 2.4%. But remember, this is what we call a weighted average. So it’s basically taking all of the things that are transacted on in the economy and averaging them out. So the fact that it went up is not great. You don’t want inflation to go up, but given the context of everything that’s going on right now, I was encouraged by this because tariffs sort of officially started going on a little bit in February and March, but really they started to go on in April.
Then there was a pause, there was all sorts of stuff going on. So I wasn’t necessarily expecting to see a huge uptick in tariff caused inflation just yet, but I’m glad we haven’t seen any basically because I do think we’ll see a little bit of uptick inflation over the next couple months. How much I kind of go back and forth on, I sort of debate this with myself. I do think there will be some upward pressure on prices, but I’m just not sure the American consumer can weather higher prices. Like yes, manufacturers, producers, businesses may want to pass along the increased input costs to their businesses in the form of tariffs onto the American consumer, but they might not be able to do that because people just might stop buying. And so I think there will be some offsetting effect of sort of the negative state I see the American consumer in helping to offset inflation a little bit.
So we’re definitely not out of the woods yet, but the fact that it didn’t go up just in the last month, I think that’s encouraging. And it’s also one of the main reasons that we did not see the Fed raise interest rates this week when they met because the Fed, as we’ve talked about, they have this sort of dual mandate of balancing inflation and the labor market. And although the labor market is starting to crack a little bit, the fact that inflation went up a little bit, probably the reason why they held steady for this month, most of the forecasts that I’ve seen expect that the Fed probably won’t raise rates until September, but things are so uncertain I wouldn’t count it out at this point. I would just say I’m going to look right before the Fed meeting every time they meet and look at inflation and look at the labor market.
If inflation stays muted and the labor market still shows some signs of cracking, I think we could see fed rate cuts this summer. But I agree, if you were just trying to assign probabilities to this, the most likely scenario is that fed rate cuts won’t come until at least the fall. Now of course for real estate investors, you’re probably going to have mixed reactions to this, right? Because a lot of people want the fed to cut rates, so mortgage rates will go down. But remember, the Fed doesn’t control rates. We saw the Fed cut rates last September and last October and rates only went up from there. And so I wouldn’t be holding your breath for the Fed and what they’re going to do. I would be more concerned about inflation and their impact on bond yields. And although those things are all kind of interconnected, the lower inflation is the better the outlook for mortgage rates, that to me is pretty clear.
If there is fear of inflation, it is going to prop up mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. I don’t know how long that will be, how high they will go, but that is just a relationship that we know about higher inflation fears, higher mortgage rates. If inflation fears start to cool, if we have another month where inflation is flat or declines, that will be a really good sign for mortgage rates. But again, I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. I have said repeatedly and I still believe that rates are going to be pretty stable for the next couple of months in the high sixes and low sevens that’s probably going to stick around for a while unless inflation really starts to fall. And again, I’m not super concerned about inflation going up 0.1% last month, but it didn’t fall, it went up. And so that signals to the Fed and to bond investors like, Hey, you might want to wait and see what’s going on in inflation before you start pouring money into bonds or lowering interest rates.
And so this is not a concern all by itself, but it does probably mean we’re going to be stuck in the mortgage rate climate that we’re in right now for the foreseeable future. Alright, that’s what I got for you guys on mortgage rates. We’ll obviously be talking about this every week as we always do on this show, but that’s my latest take based on the most recent data we have after the break that’s coming up. I do want to share with you some other information about housing affordability because as I said, I think the whole housing market comes down to affordability and I have some data to share with you about how the average Americans are feeling about housing affordability. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer going through three big stories that I’ve been thinking about this week and I wanted to share with every one of you. We’ve talked about a survey that we got from Sessa and Resi Club. Then we talked about the most recent inflation report that came in from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our last story today is no less important. It is a study that was done by Redfin. I love their data. They put out a survey that says Americans on torn on how immigration tariffs impact housing affordability. And I thought this data was super interesting because it seems people are very divided on how current administration policies are going to impact housing affordability. And honestly, I want to just open up a conversation about this. So if you’re watching on YouTube, definitely drop a comment or you can drop a comment on Spotify or just hit me up on Instagram.
I’m at the data de and let me know what you’re thinking about this. Basically what the survey shows is that over half of us homeowners and renters, strongly or somewhat agree with the following statement, less immigration will result in fewer construction workers and thereby fewer new homes, making homes more expensive. So half of the country is concerned that with deportations we’re going to get fewer construction workers. I don’t think it’s a secret that a lot of undocumented immigrants in the United States are in the construction field, and if they are not showing up to job sites or they’re actually being deported, that could impact the workforce, which could increase cost for builders. That could therefore mean they build a little bit less. And that would mean there’s this shortage that we’re in, the housing market shortage that we’re in and have been in for quite a long time might continue if that happens.
If there’s a shortage that drives up prices, right? This is supply and demand. And so about half of the country agrees with that line of thinking, but on the almost exact opposite side of this, not as many people, 38.5%. So instead of 50% we’re close to 40%, about 40% of people, and I’m rounding here of homeowners and renters, strongly or somewhat agree with the statement, less immigration will reduce demand for housing and make it more affordable. So the sort of counterpoint to the first thing that I said was that if there are less people coming into the country or there are actually deportations of people currently living in the country, there will be less demand for the existing housing units that we have and probably the existing rental units that we have making housing and rents more affordable. So I’m curious what you all think because obviously I think a lot of this probably falls along political lines, and I do not want this show to be political, but I want to open this conversation.
I trust that our audience here and on the market is able to look at objective information and think through this, not just on partisan lines, but actually just think about this from a logical perspective. And I’ve sort of been going back and forth on this, and I wonder if these two sort of contradictory ideas may actually balance themselves out because both ideas, at least in mine, have merit. If there are fewer immigrants coming into the country and if there are actually deportations in any significant way that will lower demand for housing, that makes sense. But at the same time, building could get more expensive. If the labor force shrinks, then we might have lower building supply. Those builders also might see less demand because there are less immigrants coming into the country and they might build less, which could prop up housing prices. And so I wonder if all of this will actually have any impact really at all on the housing market.
I’ve sort of been going back and forth since reading this article in my head, but I’m curious what you all think. So please make sure to leave a comment in the comment section wherever you’re listening or watching here. So that’s take on immigration. But there is another thing on tariffs, and this there is sort of more consensus about, so they asked the respondents to the survey to say they agree, strongly agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement, tariffs will cause price inflation and keep interest rates high. So 68% of people said yes to that. That is way higher than the immigration issue. That is nearly 70% of people agree with that. Only about 20% of people are neutral, and then only 13% are saying that they strongly or somewhat disagree. What I was saying earlier about inflation being tied to mortgage rates, 70% of people either strongly or somewhat agree with the statement that tariffs will cause price inflation.
So building goods will go up or inflation will just happen across the economy, and that will keep interest rates high. A lot of people believe that. Another tariff related question that was interesting too is they asked on tariffs will help boost the US economy so more people can afford homes. Only 35% of people agreed with that. So only about one third of people agree with tariffs. And again, I don’t know exactly the methodology behind this, but I do think these things are kind of interesting that most people, and it sort of jives with a lot of the other surveys I’ve seen, people are afraid of tariffs because it is a tax on American consumers. So they do feel that there’s inflation. But it is worth mentioning that 35% of people think that actually tariffs are going to help of home affordability because the US economy will grow that will put more money in people’s pockets and they’ll be able to afford homes more easily.
44% of people though disagree with that. So that one is split kind of evenly. So I just thought this was interesting and kind of wanted to open a conversation on the market community. So let me know in the comments because yes, I understand that some of this is polarizing and somewhat political, but I really think that as real estate investors and people who look at objective data and trends and economics and really want to understand this thing from all sides, I am looking forward to hearing your informed and logical opinions about what is going on here and what you think will happen due to lower immigration and due to tariffs in the housing market. Please let me know. I’m very curious to hear what you all think. Alright, that is what I got for you today on this episode of On the Market. Again, we see that a lot of investors are planning to grow their portfolios here in 2025.
We are seeing that inflation ticked up just a little bit. Nothing super concerning, but that’s probably going to leave us stuck in limbo in terms of market rates. And we are getting a very divided look at what investors and what homeowners expect will happen in the housing market due to lower immigration and increases in tariffs. I gave you all my opinion. Now it’s time for you to share yours in the comment section. So let me know what you’re thinking about these stories. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer. I’ll see you next time.

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This implementation guide is based on episode 558 of the Real Estate Rookie Podcast featuring Niti and Palak Shah, who transitioned from corporate life to building a $10 million real estate portfolio using the BRRRR method and their signature SCALE framework.

Define Your “Why” and Long-Term Vision

Start by understanding your purpose. Is it more family time? Financial independence? Freedom from the 9-to-5? Set a clear timeline for retirement or major life transitions. Work backward from your desired lifestyle to determine the number of properties or monthly cash flow required.

Action step: Write out your ideal day five years from now. Then calculate how many rental units you’d need to fund that lifestyle.

S = Scalable Acquisitions & Deal Analysis

Pick one or two ZIP codes. Define your ideal “property avatar” (e.g., 3 bed/2 bath, light rehab, no HOA). Build relationships with wholesalers, agents, and investors in those markets. The narrower your focus, the more efficient your deal pipeline becomes.

Action step: Create a spreadsheet with your property avatar, market data, and contact list for deal sources.

C = Construction Without the DIY

Use standardized finishes across all properties. Avoid hands-on rehabs. Find and vet at least 10 to 15 contractors, and always get multiple bids. Use a clear scope of work and frequent photo/video updates to keep projects on track.

Action step: Create a finish schedule template and pre-vetted materials list to give every contractor.

A = Add Cash Flow

Design rentals that command premium rents through small, strategic upgrades like washer/dryers, stainless steel appliances, and better lighting. Build systems for managing properties at scale, whether through a manager or virtual assistant.

Action step: Audit your existing or planned properties, and implement three to five small upgrades that boost rentability and tenant satisfaction.

L = Leverage With Commercial Financing

Use commercial loans to scale faster. Build a list of 30-90 banks and credit unions. Call each, ask about their BRRRR-friendly products, and log their terms in a spreadsheet. Focus on those that allow refinances based on appraised value, not purchase price.

Action step: Write a 30-second lender pitch. Build your bank list using Google and ChatGPT. Start making calls.

E = Exponential Growth

Exponential growth happens when you:

  1. Master deal analysis
  2. Master creative financing
  3. Build and manage a top-notch team

Build repeatable systems for each. Document everything: how you find deals, manage projects, screen tenants, and communicate with contractors. Refine your process every 90 days.

Action step: Schedule a monthly review of your processes and KPIs. Implement improvements and remove bottlenecks.

Master Appraisals for Successful BRRRRs

Appraisals can make or break your BRRRR. Create a professional packet for the appraiser with before/after photos, renovation scope, receipts, and comps. Hand-deliver if local, and walk them through key upgrades.

Action step: Use Canva or Google Docs to build your appraisal packet template. Include comps, scope, and cost breakdowns.

Build Systems, Not Just Skills

Create workflows for every part of the BRRRR: deal analysis, rehab, leasing, financing, and refi. Use tools like Google Sheets, WhatsApp, and CRMs to stay organized and offload tasks.

Action step: Document your process for managing a property, from acquisition to stabilization. Identify what can be delegated.

De-Risk Through Education and Community

Continue leveling up through books, courses, and mentorship. Join a mastermind, find accountability partners, and always surround yourself with people further along the journey.

Action step: Attend at least one meetup or virtual real estate event per month. Share your goals publicly to build accountability.

Execute Relentlessly

Perfection is the enemy of progress. The key to success isn’t more theory—it’s action. Start small, learn as you go, and build systems that help you scale without burning out.

Action step: Set a 90-day goal: analyze 50 deals, make three offers, and close on one property.

Want to hear the full story and details straight from Niti and Palak? Listen to episode 558 of the Real Estate Rookie Podcast to hear how they built a $10M portfolio and how you can implement the same steps starting today.\

The Real Estate Rookie Podcast

New to real estate investing and not sure where to get started? Join Ashley Kehr and Tony J Robinson every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday as they break down the basics with real-world deal analysis, investor interviews, and listener Q&A. Tune into the BiggerPockets Rookie Podcast to learn about real estate investing for beginners and get inspired by newbies who are making it happen.



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If nothing else, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act is definitely big, at over a thousand pages long. 

Critics on both sides of the aisle have slammed the bill for setting up unchecked deficit spending. Republican senators will likely rework the bill to reduce that budget deficit, although true fiscal conservatives look increasingly rare these days. 

As a real estate investor, what provisions in the bill should you start preparing for now? Keep an eye on these likely tax changes. 

Plan for Renewed Bonus Depreciation

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) allowed real estate investors to take up to 100% depreciation within the first year of buying some properties. That has been phasing out, however. It’s down to 40% this year and scheduled to drop to 20% next year before disappearing entirely in 2027. 

In the co-investing club I invest through, we’ve enjoyed bonus depreciation in our own hands-off real estate investments. It’s enabled us to show huge “losses” on our tax returns, even though we typically collect 5% to 16% in cash flow distributions in real life. 

Bonus depreciation also makes the “lazy 1031 exchange” strategy even more effective. Because I invest $5,000 each month in new investments through the co-investing club, I never have a shortage of new depreciation, even as older investments sell and the profits pay out. 

The new tax bill would renew bonus depreciation at 100% through Jan. 1, 2030. That would make the kinds of passive real estate investments I love even more tax-friendly. 

Rethink Your Roth Strategy

The Yale Budget Lab forecasts a U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio of 183% by 2054 if the new tax bill passes. Even without the deficit-laden bill, the debt-to-GDP ratio would still surge to a worrying 142%. 

The bottom line? The federal government just keeps on spending like a teenager with daddy’s credit card. At some point, the music will stop, and taxpayers will be left holding a huge bill that can no longer be kicked down the road. 

When that time comes, Congress will have to do one of two things: ugly tax hikes or ugly budget cuts. They’ll probably do some combination of both, and it will hurt—a lot. 

And yes, I realize the government can just print money and inflate away some of the problem (which they inevitably will, to some extent) until no one wants to buy Treasury bonds anymore, because their value evaporates from inflation. 

Where I’m going with all this is that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will drive down tax rates to the lowest they’re likely to be in our lifetimes. By that logic, you should max out your Roth retirement accounts to get taxes out of the way now, forever. Your contributions will compound tax-free, and you’ll avoid paying taxes on withdrawals later, when tax rates have risen. 

As a final thought, you can invest in passive real estate investments through a self-directed Roth IRA.

Review Your HSA Strategy

Health savings accounts (HSAs) come with even better tax benefits than Roth retirement accounts. You get to deduct the contributions now, they compound tax-free, and you don’t pay any taxes on withdrawals either. 

That makes them useful not just for health savings, but also for retirement investing. After all, you’ll have no shortage of health-related expenses in retirement. 

The OBBBA doubles the annual contribution limit for HSAs, from $4,300 to $8,600 ($17,100 for families). Unfortunately for higher earners, the ability to contribute starts phasing out for Americans earning over $75,000 ($150,000 for married couples).

The tax benefits on these accounts are too sweet to ignore, so keep an eye on the final changes to HSAs.  

Act Now for Clean Energy Upgrades

The current version of the bill that passed the House scraps the residential clean energy credits. Currently, property owners can offset 30% of the cost of clean energy upgrades such as solar panels, batteries, and geothermal pumps with a tax credit. Companies that lease this equipment also currently qualify for a 30% tax credit. 

Under the current bill, those tax credits would expire at the end of 2025. If you’ve been thinking about making these upgrades to your properties, make them now to lock in your tax credit. 

Reconsider Itemizing Deductions

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 doubled the standard deduction, although that’s scheduled to revert after 2025. The OBBBA would make the higher standard deduction permanent, and add an extra $1,000 from 2025-2028 ($2,000 for married couples). 

That said, the OBBBA would lift the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions from $10,000 to $40,000. For many higher earners, especially in high-tax states, that would change the calculus on itemizing versus taking the standard deduction. 

If you pay high state and local taxes, start tracking all deductible expenses now. It may make more sense to itemize deductions for 2025 than to take the standard deduction. 

As part of that conversation, charitable gifts would come with better tax benefits again for families who itemize. 

Revisit Your Estate Plan

Likewise, the TCJA roughly doubled the estate and gift tax exemption, currently $13.99 million in 2025 ($27.98 million for married couples). That higher exemption is scheduled to drop back down for 2026, however. 

The OBBBA would keep the exemption higher, pushing it to $15 million per person in 2026 and indexing to inflation thereafter. 

As a real estate investor, you may end up leaving considerable assets behind for your children and other heirs. The higher exemption could make it advantageous to start giving more to your children while you’re still alive, or to otherwise restructure how you plan to leave wealth for the next generation. 

After the final bill passes, consider speaking with an estate planning attorney if you hope to leave significant assets to your heirs. 

Meet With a CPA After the Final Bill Passes

At this point, we don’t know which provisions will be scrapped or tweaked by the Senate. But some form of this tax bill is almost certain to become law. 

When that happens, sit down for a powwow with your accountant. Talk through all these strategy changes outlined—and whatever others your CPA suggests. You may not need to change your strategy at all. More likely, you’ll want to make at least one or two course corrections. 

Who knows? Maybe you’ll find a way to convert some of your income to classify as “tips” or “overtime” to avoid paying taxes on it, since apparently some types of active income will be taxable, while others won’t.

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You don’t need a dozen doors or a beachfront empire to buy back your time. The truth is financial freedom with short-term rentals doesn’t require a massive portfolio. 

It just takes an innovative, intentional plan. One that builds momentum year after year. For me, that plan has always been simple: five short-term rentals in five years.

Not five in five days. Not five by next Tuesday because someone on Instagram said it was easy. I’m talking about five real, income-producing properties, built one thoughtful move at a time. No quitting your job. No draining your savings. No maxing out 10 credit cards.

I know it works because it’s the exact path I took. I didn’t start with a pile of cash or a team of experts. What I had was a strategy and the discipline to follow it. 

And here’s where it might surprise you: You’re not buying a new property every year. In fact, in year two, you’re not buying anything at all. That’s the year you get paid to manage someone else’s Airbnb. No mortgage or furnishing costs. Just real cash flow from someone else’s property, with systems you’ve already built.

This isn’t a story about overnight success. It’s about stacking wins over time. So, if you want a roadmap that works in the real world, keep reading. I’m going to walk you through how to build a five-property portfolio without the burnout, hype, or financial chaos. One year at a time.

Find out about:

  • The low-money-down move to get your first rental
  • How co-hosting makes you money without owning real estate
  • Why DSCR loans are the cheat code no one talks about
  • And how to turn all this into a five-property portfolio — even if you’re starting from scratch

If you’re tired of watching people show off their $3 million beach house and calling it a “beginner deal,” you’re in the right place.

Let’s break it down year by year.

Year 1: Just Get in the Game

This first year is all about planting the flag. It doesn’t have to be perfect, and it definitely won’t be your forever property. The goal is to get in the game. Everyone’s starting point is different, which is why I won’t pretend there’s one perfect way to begin. 

When I started in 2017, I purchased a small condo and converted it into a short-term rental. That was a different era. You could throw an air mattress into a room with four walls, snap a few photos, and suddenly you were making money on Airbnb. 

Things have changed since then, but the opportunity remains. You just have to be more strategic.

In today’s market, there are still ways to get your foot in the door, but every option comes with trade-offs. That’s the reality of real estate and business. It’s never all upside. The key is knowing which strategy aligns with your situation, risk tolerance, and available resources.

Here are four solid paths to consider, depending on where you’re starting from.

Option 1: House hack a duplex

Live in one unit, rent out the other as an STR.

  • Use an FHA loan (just 3.5% down)
  • Low barrier to entry
  • Get hands-on experience while living on-site
  • Cons: Location may not be ideal for you, depending on the market

Option 2: Vacation home loan

Purchase a second home in a vacation area with a 10%-15% down payment.

  • Use it just 14 days a year at least, or 10% of rented nights
  • Better terms compared to investment loans
  • Cons: Higher down payment, not full-time

Option 3: Rental arbitrage

Lease a unit, furnish it, and list it online.

  • Own the cash flow, not the property
  • Low upfront cost, high ROI potential
  • Cons: No equity being built, the landlord makes the terms

Option 4: Partner up

Find a money partner: You do the work, they bring the capital.

  • Split profits 50/50
  • You provide the sweat equity needed, but not your own funds
  • Cons: Hard to find partners with no experience

Year 2: Co-Host to Build Cash Flow

Now, we get creative and start to use the knowledge that’s been gained. No purchase this year; instead, you co-host a property. Now that you have some experience and can show your results to others, you can find co-hosting clients to boost your cash flow with little expenses on your end. 

What is co-hosting?

You manage someone else’s Airbnb. They own it, you run it.

  • You earn 15% to 30% of the gross revenue.
  • No mortgage, no furnishing, no problem

If the property grosses $4,000 a month, you are likely earning between $800 and $1,200 with no upfront capital or mortgage. That is the power of co-hosting. But before you dive in, there is an important detail to consider: Your role might be classified differently depending on your state.

Some states draw a legal distinction between being a property manager and being a co-host, and that classification can impact what licenses or agreements you need. Make sure to research your local laws so you are fully informed.

I am not a lawyer, although I did once win a traffic court case representing myself, which felt very official at the time, but here is the general rule of thumb: The legal gray area usually centers around whether you are collecting rent on the owner’s behalf. 

On Airbnb, their co-host platform simplifies this. You do not collect payments. Airbnb sends you your share automatically. VRBO is less streamlined, so you will typically need to invoice the owner at the end of each month based on your agreed-upon percentage.

If you are using a direct booking site and acting as the merchant of record, meaning guests are paying you instead of the owner, that is where things can get more complicated. In those cases, you may be stepping into formal property management territory and should take a closer look at your state’s specific requirements.

Why co-hosting works:

  • Get hands-on operations experience
  • Build a monthly income
  • Test and scale systems
  • Build your STR resume

How to land your first co-host client

If you’re serious about landing your first co-hosting gig, don’t just wait for someone to ask for help; find the opportunity yourself. One of the best ways to do this is by searching Zillow for furnished long-term rentals in STR-friendly markets. These are often second homes or investment properties that could be easily converted into short-term rentals with the right operator. 

Reach out to the owner or property manager and pitch your co-hosting services. Share your experience, explain what they could potentially earn if the unit were listed on Airbnb or Vrbo instead, and break down exactly how you’d handle everything from guest messaging to pricing optimization.

You can also search Facebook Marketplace for furnished rentals or short-term rental listings that are underperforming. If the photos are subpar, the calendar is wide open, or the reviews are inconsistent, you can turn that property around. Use tools like PropStream to identify the property owner, then contact them directly. Tell them what you’ve done, what you can do for their listing, and how much more they could be making. 

Co-hosting is part operations, part sales, and if you’re willing to hustle, you can build a portfolio without ever signing a mortgage.

Year 3: Buy Again With a DSCR Loan

By the time you reach year 3, you’ve probably already made a few big moves in life. Maybe you’ve bought a new primary residence. Perhaps you’ve purchased a car, paid for a wedding, or taken on some other form of debt. And now, when you go to a traditional lender to try and buy property No. 2, you hear the dreaded words: “Your debt-to-income ratio is too high.”

This is where most people hit a wall, but it’s also where the strategy shifts.

Enter the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loan. It’s one of the best tools in the short-term rental playbook, especially if your income doesn’t reflect the cash flow you’re generating. Instead of looking at your W2s or tax returns, DSCR lenders focus on two things: does the property pay for itself, and what is your personal credit score? 

Why DSCR loans are powerful:

  • No personal income verification
  • Perfect for self-employed or W2-free investors
  • Can use STR income projections

How to fund the down payment

You’ve got a few solid options, depending on how creative you want to get. Start with the profits from your first two years. If you’ve been running your initial property well and co-hosting another, there’s a good chance you’ve built up some cash reserves that can be reinvested.

You may even be able to get a business loan to use for it if you have been handling your books correctly. These typically have higher interest rates but could be a valuable asset with the right deal in front of you. 

Another route is a cash-out refinance or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) on your first property, especially if it’s appreciated, has been renovated, or you’ve paid down the loan. And if you’re still short, this is where your growing track record comes into play. By now, you’ve got real results to show. Use them to bring in a money partner who wants a piece of the next deal without doing the work.

This becomes your second-owned property. At this point, you have three active income streams.

Year 4: Stack Another STR

By now, the gears are turning. You have income coming in, systems running in the background, and enough experience under your belt to start making smarter, more confident moves. You are no longer guessing. You are operating. 

Year four is when you start to feel the shift. Instead of scraping together funds or hoping lenders will take a chance on you, you are building with momentum. This is the moment to add another short-term rental, not because you feel pressure to scale but because your business is ready to support it.

There are a few ways to approach this, depending on how your current properties are performing and what kind of opportunity you want to pursue next.

Option 1: Reinvest profits

If you have managed your cash flow well over the past few years, you may already have enough saved for another down payment. This is the slow and steady path. Take the income your properties are generating and use it to fund your next purchase.

Option 2: Raise capital

At this stage, you have results. You have reviews, income statements, and a proven model. Use your track record to attract a private money partner or investor. People are far more likely to put money into something real than something theoretical.

Option 3: Add a unique stay

This is where you can lean into creativity. Consider something that stands out in the market, like a glamping dome, tiny home, prefab structure, or container cabin. 

These stays often cost less to develop but can earn more per night because of their uniqueness. They are easier to market and brand, and more likely to catch attention on social media. When done well, they create both revenue and reach.

No matter which path you take, this is the year you move from operator to builder. You are not just adding another property. You are expanding your brand, diversifying your income, and proving that your short-term rental business can grow beyond the hustle of those early years.

Year 5: Flex Year and Finish Strong

By the time you reach year five, the hard part is behind you. You have a real business now. You are no longer just trying to break in—you are choosing how to grow. This is your flex year, the one where you get to finish strong and set the tone for what comes next.

You have options:

  • Buy another property using a DSCR loan, now backed by experience and income.
  • Turn one of your co-hosted units into an equity partnership.
  • Build something unique on land you already own.
  • Expand into full-time STR management by helping other owners succeed.

No matter which path you take, the foundation is already in place. By the end of year five, you have likely built five or more streams of income, established ownership in two to three properties, and gained hands-on experience managing a diverse mix of short-term rentals. 

You have systems that work, automation tools that save time, and a small team that helps keep everything running smoothly. This is no longer trial and error. It is a business that is built to last.

This is no longer just a side hustle. It is a growing business with real momentum. Now, the only question is how far you want to take it.



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