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This article is presented by Cost Segregation Guys.

Ask 10 real estate investors to explain depreciation, and you will get 10 different answers. Some will get it mostly right, while others will confuse it with something else entirely. A few will admit they just let their CPA handle it and have never really dug into how it works.

That is more common than you might think, and it’s also a real missed opportunity. Depreciation is one of the most significant tax advantages available to real estate investors, and understanding it at a basic level makes you a sharper investor, regardless of how many units you own.

What Depreciation Actually Means

In plain English, depreciation is the IRS’s acknowledgment that physical assets wear out over time. 

A building is not going to last forever. The roof will eventually need replacing. The plumbing ages. The structure itself has a finite useful life. Because of this, the tax code allows property owners to deduct a portion of their property’s value each year to account for gradual wear and tear.

Think of it like this. If you buy a piece of equipment for your business that has a 10-year lifespan, you can deduct one-tenth of its cost each year rather than writing off the whole thing up front. Real estate works the same way, just on a longer timeline. You paid a certain amount for the property, and the IRS lets you spread that cost out as a deduction over the course of several decades.

One important note: Land does not depreciate. You can only depreciate the structure itself, not the dirt under it. When calculating depreciation, the land value gets separated from the building value, and only the building portion counts.

Residential vs. Commercial Timelines

The IRS assigns different depreciation timelines depending on the type of property. For residential rental properties, that timeline is 27.5 years. For commercial properties, it is 39 years. 

These numbers are not arbitrary. They reflect the IRS’s general assumption about how long each type of structure has a useful life.

What this means practically is that each year, you can deduct 1/27.5 of your residential building’s value, or roughly 3.6%, as a depreciation expense on your taxes. For a commercial property, that works out to about 2.6% per year over 39 years.

These are the standard timelines. There are strategies, like cost segregation, that allow certain components of a property to be depreciated on much shorter schedules. But as a baseline, 27.5 and 39 years are the numbers most investors start with.

Why Depreciation Does Not Mean Your Property Is Losing Value

This is one of the most common points of confusion, and it is worth addressing directly. Depreciation for tax purposes has nothing to do with what your property is actually worth in the market. A building can be depreciating on paper while simultaneously appreciating in value. These are two separate things.

Tax depreciation is an accounting concept. It exists to reflect the theoretical wear and tear on a structure over time, not to track market conditions. Your property’s actual value is determined by what buyers are willing to pay for it, which is influenced by the market, location, condition, rental income, and dozens of other factors that have nothing to do with the IRS’s depreciation schedule.

Many investors have owned properties for 20 or 30 years that have tripled in value while being fully depreciated on paper. The two things simply live in different worlds.

How Depreciation Reduces Taxable Income

Here is where depreciation becomes genuinely powerful. When you own a rental property, the income you collect from tenants is taxable. But you are also allowed to deduct legitimate expenses against that income—like mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, repairs, and property management fees.

Depreciation is another deduction you can stack on top of those. And unlike most deductions, it does not require you to spend any money in the year you claim it. It is what accountants call a noncash deduction. The wear and tear on your building is assumed to be happening whether or not you wrote a check for it.

The result is that many rental property owners show a loss on paper even when they are cash flow positive. Rent comes in, expenses and depreciation are deducted, and the taxable income left over is often significantly lower than the actual cash in their pocket. Depending on your situation, that paper loss can also potentially offset other income, though the rules around this involve income limits and passive activity rules that are worth discussing with a tax professional.

Where Most Investors Get This Wrong

The most common misunderstanding is not about the mechanics of depreciation itself. It is about what happens when you sell.

When you sell a property, the IRS requires you to pay back a portion of the depreciation you claimed over the years. This is called depreciation recapture, and it is taxed at a rate of up to 25%. 

A lot of investors are surprised by this at the time of sale because they either forgot they were taking depreciation deductions or did not fully understand that those deductions were not free. They were more like a deferral.

The second most common misunderstanding is simply not claiming depreciation at all. Some investors, particularly those who are newer or working with generalist CPAs, end up not taking the deduction they are entitled to. The IRS still counts it as if you did, which means you could end up paying recapture taxes on depreciation you never actually benefited from.

Final Thoughts

Depreciation is not complicated once you understand the basics, but it does reward investors who pay attention to it. Knowing how it works, what it affects, and what it eventually costs you gives you a clearer picture of the real financial performance of your properties.

If you’re ready to go beyond the standard 27.5- and 39-year schedules and uncover faster write-offs hiding inside your property, Cost Segregation Guys can help you do it the right way. Their team makes the process simple, identifies the components that qualify for accelerated depreciation, and helps you maximize deductions while staying aligned with IRS rules. You can reach out to Cost Segregation Guys to see how much you could potentially accelerate, and start keeping more of what your properties earn.



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Traditionally, townhomes were often starter homes for singles and young couples, becoming rentals by default when the owners decided to upgrade to a single-family home. That is changing.

Previously, the additional cash from a townhouse starter pad-turned-rental and its tax benefits were crucial first steps toward building wealth. Now, however, amid the affordability crisis, Realtor.com reports that they have played an increasingly important role in homebuying, serving as both starter homes and long-term residences for owners due to their lower price points.

With a greater number of townhouses on the market and those looking to live with lower housing costs, such as the 55+ community and singles, increasing in number as well, townhomes’ role as investment vehicles could also take on greater significance.

“Townhomes now make up the largest share of the for-sale homes on the market in our data history,” explained Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner. “And they appear to be picking up steam as builders push forward with smaller and more affordable projects to meet the demand of buyers who are struggling to make a purchase in the detached home (single-family) space.”

Townhomes Are Being Built at a High Rate

New Census construction data showed townhouses are being built fast and steady, up 3.8% year over year, offering investors the chance to buy new homes that require less maintenance at far lower price points than single-family homes.

From a wide lens, townhome starts were up 37% from the second quarter of 2019 to August 2024, according to homebuilding research and data platform Zonda.

“In today’s challenging housing market, consumers’ growing interest in townhomes is a direct response to two primary pressures: affordability and lifestyle preference,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist at NewHomeSource, which is owned by Zonda.

Realtor.com’s Berner explained:

“Townhomes are generally lower-priced than single-family homes and sometimes offer community services and amenities that single-family homes (especially those outside HOAs) may not. They also tend to be concentrated in more urban areas and closer to city centers. The drawbacks are that they are generally smaller and, by definition, share walls with other homes.”

The low cost of construction has made townhouses a winner with builders. According to the National Association of Home Builders, after the second quarter of 2025, the previous four quarters saw 179,000 homes built. The four-quarter moving average market share is the highest on record for data going back to 1985.

 

The Appeal of Townhomes to Buyers and Renters

Townhomes work as rentals for the same reason that they work as owner-occupied homes. Affordability and low maintenance make them appealing to a wide demographic. They also have some advantages over single-family homes. 

Here are some of the demographics who are looking at townhomes and why.

Single women

According to NewHomeSource, single women often prefer the sense of community and safety that a townhome offers, with shared walls and neighbors close at hand. Data from the American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life shows more Americans, particularly young women, are single.

Single-parent families

Single-parent families are on the rise in the U.S. According to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, as cited by NPR, 40% of all babies in the U.S. were born to single mothers raising children on their own, often without partners. Increasingly, these women are over 30, can afford to buy or rent on their own, and are opting for townhouses.

Millennial appeal

Millennials enjoy living in walkable communities with access to amenities.

55+ buyers

Empty nesters enjoy the low-maintenance lifestyle that living in a townhome offers, especially those that appeal to their aesthetic values with high-end design, while also being a part of a community.

Townhomes as an Investment

Not every townhome community is a great investment. One downside of living in an older townhome community with poor management is that, as an owner, you are clustered with other homes. So, even if your rental is in great shape, if the surrounding homes are beat up, it’s not a good look for potential tenants.

On the upside, townhomes generally have lower property taxes than single-family homes, but they usually have HOA fees, so you’ll have to weigh the two against each other, along with additional expenses, to work out your final cash flow numbers.

Pre-Construction Pricing, Multiple Homes

For investors looking to build a manageable portfolio of doors near one another, approaching a building to negotiate a pre-construction price for multiple units might be a viable opportunity. You’ll own brand-new rentals next to one another, requiring minimal maintenance. 

There might be some caveats to this approach, however, if the HOA laws state that investors can only own a certain percentage of homes in the development.

Low Maintenance

While dealing with HOA fees eats into your cash flow, it also means that owning a townhome is great for passive investors who don’t want to be bothered with day-to-day upkeep issues like lawn mowing, roof cleaning, landscaping, pest control, HVAC inspections, trash collection, and snow removal.

Townhomes as Short-Term Rentals

According to AirDNA, the platform that analyzes the short-term rental market, some townhome markets offer homes costing less than a single-family property and—for STR purposes—earn more. 

It might sound too good to be true, but AirDNA whittled down the list to the following:

  • Savannah, Georgia
  • Seattle, Washington
  • Key West, Florida
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • Denver, Colorado
  • Pensacola, Florida

For purely short-term rental purposes, townhomes located in popular vacation spots can be high earners. AirDNA did the number crunching to analyze the top townhome STR markets in the U.S in terms of annual revenue. In May 2024, when the survey was compiled, they were:

  • Vail/Avalon, Colorado: $125,872 annual revenue potential (ARP)
  • Park City, Utah: $111,874
  • Key West, Florida: $100,094
  • Steamboat Springs, Colorado: $97,399
  • Savannah, Georgia: $94,715
  • San Diego, California: $83,449
  • Breckenridge, Colorado: $75,443
  • Santa Rosa/Rosemary Beach, Florida: $68,554
  • Nashville, Tennessee: $66,898
  • Sarasota, Florida: $64,631

Final Thoughts

Like any investment, townhomes as rentals are highly dependent on location. Being near universities, hospitals, and other employment hubs means you’ll have a steady supply of tenants. This is where the advantage of owning a townhome kicks in—they are about 10% less expensive than single-family homes, require less maintenance, and can earn decent rental income.

If you own a townhome in a popular tourist area, you might be able to purchase it as a second home and deduct some or all of the mortgage interest, under the limits that apply to your main home, providing you live in it for more than 14 days of the year or 10% of the days you rent it out, whichever is greater. That means you can benefit from rental income and depreciation of the rental portion, even if it is classified as a second home, provided you meet specific conditions

For hands-off investors or those considering a short-term rental, townhomes offer a wide range of opportunities.



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Dave:
48 trillion dollars of real estate could be changing hands soon as baby boomers age and bring their massive inventory of property to the market. Some have called this impending demographic shift, the silver tsunami, and have claimed it will cause a crash in the housing market unlike anything we’ve ever seen in the past. But those same people have been saying this for 10 plus years and clearly it hasn’t happened, but the situation is changing. Boomers are now on average in their 70s and the generational shift of property and wealth is already starting to happen. We can see it in the data. So will that lead to this long predicted crash? Will the market shrug it off like it has for the last decade? Today and on the market, we’ll find out.
Hey everyone. Welcome to On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets. Today on the show, we’re addressing a demographic issue facing the housing market as baby boomers wants the biggest generation in the country age and give up the very substantial portion of the housing market that they own in the United States. Either because they’re choosing to rent, they go into assisted living or they pass away. And this shift, which I should say is completely inevitable given the demographics and the sad realities of mortality, this shift is going to hit the housing market in a way that aging and people getting older doesn’t normally hit the housing market. It doesn’t normally create these structural shifts, but this one probably will. And that is just because of the sheer quantity of housing stock that Boomers own. We’re going to get into the details of that a bit later, but for now you should just know it’s a ton.
They own way more real estate than you probably think they do. And the generational transfer of these properties, either by selling them or passing them along to their heirs is going to impact the housing market. But in what ways? Is it going to be a crash? Like all the people calling for this silver tsunami have been saying for more than a decade now. Does it mean we’re going to have faster sales? Does it mean we’ll have slower appreciation? What will this demographic shift actually do to the market? People obviously have very different takes on this. Some people sort of just blow it off and say that the market’s going to absorb it, nothing’s really going to happen. On the other end of the spectrum, people are calling for a crash saying that boomers are all going to sell in a relatively short time period that’s going to create a supply and an inventory spike and that’s going to push down prices.
But today on the market, we’re going to find out what is most likely to happen. We’re actually not just going to spew some hype or blow things off. We’re going to dig into the actual data and trends and uncover what this situation will likely bring to the housing market and what it means for investors. We’re going to start by laying the foundation. We’ll talk about demographic realities and how kind of in crazy, insanely concentrated housing is right now in the boomer generation. Next, we’re going to talk about the timeline, because people have been calling for this generational shift for more than 15 years, at least. I think the term actually started coming around in the 80s, but it started gained ground in 2008 to 2011 is when people really started talking about it. Clearly that crash hasn’t happened yet, but given the inevitability, when will this actually start?
Next, we’re going to talk about inheritances because even if boomers eventually leave their homes, which they will, will it all hit the market or are they just going to pass it down to younger generations desperate to get a deal on housing? And then lastly, we’ll game out what is actually going to happen or what is likely to happen. I’m going to pull it all together for you using historical precedents, examples from other countries. And we’re going to bring in the other dynamics of the housing market that we talk about a lot on this show to give you actionable information about this upcoming generational shift so that you can actually do something about it and make decisions about your own portfolio. With that, let’s get to it. So first up, let’s just talk about what’s going on with demographics. You probably know this, but Boomers, biggest generation in the US for a very long time.
This was after World War II. There’s just a massive spike in births, and this created the largest generation we had ever seen. Actually, as boomers have started to age and unfortunately start to die off, millennials are now the biggest generation, but boomers for a long time were so big that it sort of created this economic force that changed the entire landscape of our country as they reached different periods of their life. When they were reaching peak home buying age, when they were in their peak earning age, when they were starting to retire, has had huge impacts on our economy. And housing, especially of late, is no different. What the boomers do because there are just so many of them and they have so much wealth impacts all of us. Just to drill into the housing piece of this, as of now, boomers own 41% of all US property, which is a lot.
For the first time ever, Americans over 70 now own a larger shale of real estate wealth than middle-aged Americans, people from 40 to 54. That is not normal. Normally people who are mid-age, who are at the peak of their earnings, who have families, they have the highest concentration of wealth when it comes to real estate. That has shifted for the first time only recently. Now it’s people over 70 that is very unusual. And it’s not just mid-life, middle-aged people who are negatively impacted. Actually, if you want what I think is maybe a sadder comparison, if you look at people under 40 years old, they own just 12.6% of real estate wealth. That is one of the lowest it has ever been and it’s been completely unchanged for over a decade. So it’s not like millennials and Gen Z are catching up. If anything, the opposite is happening where more and more of the real estate wealth is concentrated in older generations.
So if we’re just tracking the accuracy of these claims about a silver tsunami that’s going to crash the market, which I have been consistently hearing for so long, that just hasn’t been true as of yet. Boomers have not been selling en masse and they have largely held on to their real estate. But why? Why are they behaving so differently from other generations? We have some information about this, both from surveys and just some demographic data. The first reason they are not selling and they still hold so much real estate is just lifestyle preferences. Actually, there’s a real estate survey from Clever Real Estate. This was just back in 2025. They found that 61% of boomers, so the majority of boomers say that they never plan to sell their home. That is up seven percentage points in just a single year. It went from 54 to 61 in just a single year.
And the reason for that, that the survey is really good. It dug further into that and asked, “Why do you plan to never sell your home?” And more than half of them said, “They just want to age in place. They don’t want to go into assisted living. They don’t want to downsize or find a new home. They just want to age in place. And that’s pretty different from other generations.” On top of that, 34% of the people who said that they never will sell their home is because they plan to leave it as an inheritance. And actually 30% of them worry that they can’t afford a new home. That’s the lock in effect, right? Just impacting everyone across the board. The boomer generation is no different for a lot of people who own their home for a long time. Perhaps they’ve paid off their mortgage or they have a two or 3% mortgage rate.
It is more expensive for them to downsize. This is something we talk about on the show all the time. This is holding up the housing market a lot right now, and the boomers are experiencing that the same as everyone else. So the point here is that one of the main reasons is people just want to age in place. You see at least a third of boomers saying that they will never sell their home because they are going to age in place. And that is significant impacts for what’s going to happen in this demographic shift. So that’s something we have to keep in mind. But the second reason we haven’t seen this flood of inventory on the market is really economic because as boomers started to age, starting to hit retirement age about 10, 12 years ago, rates for the 12 years they were in their age when they were going from working to retirement, we had this epic run of low mortgage rates and they were able to refinance into very affordable payments even without their salaries, right?
Even just using social security or pensions or pulling out money from their 401k because rates were so low when they had to make these decisions, they have affordable payments probably locked in, but that’s not all. Actually, less than half of Boomers even have a mortgage in the first place. 54% of them own their homes outright, meaning they are under very little pressure to sell and they have very low cost of living. So unless something forces them to sell, why would you? You’ve lived in your house probably for 30 years, you’ve paid off that mortgage, and if it’s more expensive to go somewhere else, why would you do that? And so they’re under very little pressure to sell. So when you look at these two things together, they don’t want to move for lifestyle decisions. And for the most part, they don’t have to move because they have the economic wherewithal to stay in place and not sell.
That means that this silver tsunami people have been saying is going to crash the market for 10 years has not materialized because boomers have largely held on to their property, but they’re aging. That still happens, right? They keep getting over. And so is the math going to change? And will we finally start to see the impact of this generational shift in the housing market? We’ll get to that right after this quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer talking about the generational shift that we’re seeing in the housing market where boomers are aging and eventually, although it hasn’t happened yet and calls of a crash from a silver tsunami have been way overstated, this is going to happen at some point, right? There is a certain inevitability that boomers are going to die and they’re going to pass along their housing either by selling it or passing it down to their children, but that inventory will move in some way or another over the next decade or two because as of right now, the oldest baby boomers are starting to turn 80 in 2026. We are seeing that the average baby boomer is about 72 years old. The average lifespan in the United States is about 74. So we are in that time when I think this is probably going to accelerate.
And that means that this inventory may finally start to hit the market, right? If more boomers are dying each and every year, won’t we see all this inventory hitting the market? Well, it could be, but there’s also one way that it doesn’t actually hit the market. What if they don’t sell? What if they just pass along their homes to their children who, I should say, will probably be very grateful for a home with a low basis or potentially even one of those half of Boomer homes that actually don’t even have a mortgage at all. This trend of passing along properties to your children is increasing and will play a large role in how big of a quote unquote silver tsunami or generational shift actually hits the market. So let’s dig into this for a little bit. I said this at the top of the show and it is true that this transfer that we are seeing from boomers to millennials or to Gen X is already starting to happen and it is accelerating.
According to Cotality’s database, really good data source of property deeds, they showed that in 2025, a record 34,000 homes were transferred through inheritance in the 12 months prior to that. That is actually 7% of all transfers. So if you’re looking at all movement from one owner to another, 7% of it is now from inheritance, which may not sound like a lot, but that is the highest share ever recorded. So this is real and it is starting to accelerate. Now, of course we should mention that’s 340,000 properties that might otherwise have hit the market increasing inventory, but it didn’t happen. That’s kind of the point I’m trying to make here is that a sizable amount of inventory is never hitting the market because it’s being inherited and that is likely to continue. As of right now, 62% of younger Americans expect to inherit a property. And if you just presume that’s right, which I think some people are going to be very unpleasantly surprised to find out that they don’t actually inherit a property, but let’s just for now presume that about two thirds of all inventory boomers hold could never hit the market, just pass right on to their children.
That will definitely suppress the impact of this demographic shift because inventory may never truly spike. If only a third of Boomer owned properties hit the market and that drips out over the next 10 or 20 years, market probably going to absorb it just like it has for the last 10 years. But of course there are some caveats there, right? Like I said, I think 62% of people inheriting property, probably too high. I imagine that people will be disappointed to find out that even though their parents want to get out of their home, they still have costs like moving into assisted living or they have healthcare costs and they need to sell their home to actually finance those things. So I think it’s probably less than half, but I’ve looked at a bunch of different surveys. I think it’s probably going to be 30 to 50%, which is still a lot, right?
That’s still a ton of inventory that’s not going to hit a market unless, because there are a lot of caveats here. We talk about 30 to 50% of homes just being inherited and never hitting the market, that is a presumption that the people who inherit those properties don’t actually just turn around and sell, that they hold onto them. And that is another question that we should explore. I actually tried to find data about this and LegalZoom did a survey and found that 42% of young Americans don’t feel financially prepared to keep and maintain an inherited home. Just think about that for a second. We’re talking about what I think most people, at least on paper or in their heads, would dream of as a windfall, right? You’re getting a property either with partially paid off mortgage, maybe an entirely paid off home owned free and clear, but because property taxes and maintenance costs and insurance costs have gone up so much, 42% say they don’t feel prepared to inherit that home, that’s a lot.
We actually had a recent guest on Melody Wright who said that she saw that 70% will sell. I think that number is a little high. I wasn’t able to find great data on that, to be honest, but my guess is that even if the historical trend is 70%, like 70% of people sell when they inherit a home, that that’s going to shift. The housing market is just so unaffordable. I don’t think there has been ever a more attractive time to inherit a home versus going out and buying one for yourself. I think for most millennials, just speaking as a millennial and how expensive it is for my peers and colleagues and friends to afford homes, I think almost everyone I know would do whatever they can to keep the homes that their parents might pass down to them. Not everyone’s obviously getting that, but anyone who might get a home passed down to them, I think are going to try pretty darn hard to be able to hold onto that.
So even if it’s still a lot, I don’t think it’s going to be 70%, I’d say at least 50% hold onto them. So if we do all this together, and again, I am extrapolating a lot of data here. This is not precise, but I’m just saying maybe 50% of people pass their properties down onto their heirs and then 50% of them hold on. That means that 25% roughly of the inventory that boomers hold will never hit the market, but that means 75% will hit the market, and that is still a lot of property coming to market over the next couple of years. Now, that might sound like the silver tsunami that people have been predicting, but there are three important things to remember here. First, people aging and downsizing or dying or having someone inherit a home and sell it, that is not new. All the stuff we’re talking about are things that happen every day for years.
That is always happening. So it’s not like we’re like, “Oh, we have normal inventory now.” And then as boomers start to die, we’re going to have 75% of their inventory hit the market on top of what we already have. We are already starting to absorb some of this. And although I do think we will see an upward pressure on inventory because of this over the next couple of years, it is not additive. You’re not adding all this on top of existing inventory. It is part of existing inventory. The second thing is that in addition to this being an important part of inventory already, even though this new upward pressure on inventory is coming, it’s not like they’re going to list all their sales for once. That’s why I hate this term, the silver tsunami. It makes it sounds like it’s this wave that’s going to come through and crash everything, but really what’s going to happen is that health decisions or family decisions are going to play out over the next 10 or 20 years, and this will be a long and sustained upward pressure on inventory, but it’s not all going to come at once.
I just really don’t like this idea of a tsunami. I think it’s more like the tide, right? If you think about a tide going in or out, it happens slowly and it happens almost imperceptibly at any given time, but over the long run, the market will change. And I do think that we have this long-term upward pressure on inventory, which we’ll talk about more in a minute, but that means downward pressure on appreciation when there’s more inventory. But just remember, this isn’t going to be event. It is something that is going to happen over the course of a decade or more. It’s already been happening for several years and will probably happen for at least 10 more years according to the data and research I’ve done. So that’s number two thing to keep in mind here. Number three here is that, as I said at the beginning, even though boomers own a lot of property, they are no longer the biggest generation.
Millennials are the biggest generation, and millennials are at their peak home buying age. So even though we’re going to have this upward pressure on inventory, we also have a demographic tailwind that’s working with us. They’re sort of counteracting forces, right? The baby boomers were so big, but they’re selling, which means there’s going to be more supply, but the millennials are even bigger right now and they’re buying, which means that a lot of that inventory could get absorbed. Now, it’s going to be different in different kinds of markets. It’s going to be different for different asset classes, which we’re going to talk about in a minute, but those are sort of the big picture things I want everyone to remember here. Yes, more inventory probably will come to the market over the next five to 10 years, but there are many reasons to believe this isn’t going to be a one-time crash, and that’s because boomers have already been selling for several years and it hasn’t caused a crash.
They are not going to do it all at once. This is going to stretch out for a decade or more, and we have demographic tailwinds helping us because millennials are now the biggest generation in the US. So it’s not a tsunami. There’s no single event that’s going to come and rock the real estate and market, but what will happen? What does this mean for real estate investors? We’ll get to that after this quick break.
Welcome back to On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer, talking about the generational shift happening in the housing market. Before the break, I said I don’t think it’s going to be a tsunami. I have not liked that word for a long time. People have been calling for it for 10 years, at least hasn’t happened because as we’ve discussed, the transfer of boomer property to other generations is going to happen slowly, even though it will add upward pressure on inventory for I think at least the next five to 10 years, maybe even longer. But if it’s not a tsunami, what is it? How is this going to shape out? Of course, we don’t know exactly what will happen, but we can extrapolate. We know what’s happening in the housing market, how inventory and demographic and demand dynamics are shaping up. And we can also actually look at what’s happened in other countries.
And I want to dive into that just for a second here because there are other advanced economies that have similar demographic situations playing out a few years ahead of us. And so we can actually sort of look a little bit at specifically Japan and Germany. There’s a pretty good comps just demographically speaking as to what’s happening in the US. So let’s just look at Japan for a second because they also had a boomer equivalent after World War II. They also had an increase in births, but it actually happened a little bit earlier. And so almost a decade in advance, we might actually see what might happen in the United States. And what you see, if you look at property values in Japan, and they do have a lot of different rules, they have different tax incentive, different structures, all this stuff, you actually saw home prices go down.
It wasn’t a crash, but you did see home prices go down as their baby booner generation turned 75 plus. We are between 68 and 80 right now in the US who were right in that time. Now, there are some key differences between Japan and the United States. Japan has had a total declining population for a while now. The US still has a rising population for now, but if you listen to the episode I did on this a little while ago, it was a couple weeks ago, I did a whole thing on population decline. It is very likely as of right now that the US population is going to start to decline. So we could see some of the shifts that happened in Japan in the US as well. We also can look at Germany really quickly. Actually, we saw some research across the 22 OECD countries as some of the largest advanced economies in the world.
And basically what it showed was that aging will decrease real housing prices on average by around 80 basis points per year, so 0.8 per year. So that is pretty significant, right? That is a headwind to housing increases. Now, it’s important to remember that the US is starting from a structural supply deficit, right? So even though we might see more vacancy, we are starting from a negative, right? And so some of this might just get us back to a balanced market. But as we talk about on this show, all of these things, all these variables, none of them are a silver bullet. None of them are going to change the market unto themselves. What happens is some things put upward pressure on prices, some things put downward pressure on prices. And our demographics in the United States, which have been huge accelerants for housing prices over the last several decades and still are today, and I believe still will be for the next five years or so.
And starting the 2030s, maybe beyond that, it might become downward pressure on pricing. Doesn’t mean you can’t invest, doesn’t mean that housing prices are going to crash, but it’s sort of a flip. It’s a flip of a switch from a tailwind where it was helping appreciation to a headwind where it was going to hurt appreciation. That to me is sort of the big takeaway here is that it’s probably going to be a tailwind for appreciation, but let’s just game out a little bit what actually might happen here. As I do with housing predictions every year, I like to just offer different scenarios. I’m not going to sit here and pretend I know exactly how this is all going to play out, but I’ve done a lot of research on this and I do think I can share what’s the most likely scenario, at least the way the data looks today.
Similar to where we are in the Great Stall, I think this is going to play out very slowly, sort of like a slow grind, right? It’s the wave, it’s not a tsunami, like I said, it’s this sort of rising tide of inventory. Boomers probably going to continue aging in place for as long as they can. They’re probably going to transfer property to their heirs gradually, and many of those heirs I think are going to choose to occupy or to rent out. Again, they don’t have to move into it. They can rent it out rather than sell. And I don’t think we’re going to see this massive tidal wave that everyone’s predicting. Not all of this inventory is going to hit the market. I think it’s probably closer to 50 to 75%. That is also going to happen over 10 to 20 years. And what I think that means is that over the next 10 to 20 years, we’re going to see more inventory and slower appreciation.
Now that is on a national basis. And as you all know, that is not really how things play out in real estate. It’s not really what matters to most of us as real estate investors. I actually think that we are going to see the biggest downward pressure on pricing in rural areas and in age dense suburbs. So if you look at places, I’m going to just call out Florida, right? They have a very old population. In those suburbs, they’re probably going to have the most downward pressure on pricing out of all of the markets. You also see that a lot of older folks live in more rural areas proportionately, or I should say rural areas are disproportionately made up of older people. So the pressure prices are going to face are probably going to be more in rural and suburban areas and much less in urban cities.
On top of Florida, also call out other places where retirees tend to move, places like Arizona or parts of California. You also see parts of the Midwest, even though they are not sunny, do have high concentrations of baby boomers. And so those are all places where I think you need to look at and rethink what appreciation in those markets might be. We might see flat markets there for a very long time. So I think we really need to consider that in those specific regions. I’m not saying that on a national basis, but just in these specific places. That’s what I think is the most likely scenario. Is there a scenario where it causes a crash? Yeah, I kind of just did a thougt exercise to try and think of like, can I think of a way where there is a big crash? And I think it has to be some sort of black swan event where all of a sudden, maybe there’s a massive stock market crash where boomers are losing some of their wealth and need to tap into their home equity to pay for day-to-day expenses and they sell their homes.
That’s something I can imagine happening. There could be some healthcare shocks, right? Boomers are in their 70s right now as they get into their 80s. We all know the price of healthcare keeps going up and up and up. And so maybe in five, 10 years, a lot of these boomers are in their 80s. They need money to pay for long-term care. They start to sell in mass in more of a concentrated fashion. Could those things happen? Yes, but I think that might probably be part of a bigger economic crisis. And so it’s not like the boomer situation alone would cause a housing market crash in that situation. It would probably add to it though, right? If we had a massive unemployment, massive stock market crash and boomers will be impacted that just like everyone else. So it’ll be another thing contributing to some challenges for the housing market.
But I don’t think. I have a hard time seeing this situation alone without some other external catalyst causing a full on real estate crash. I think the much more likely scenario is the more boring scenario where it puts downward pressure on pricing, modest downward pressure on pricing over the next five, 10, maybe even 20 years. So that’s not great news for appreciation, but again, gradual, not all at once. So with all that said, what does this mean for real estate investors? I’ll just recap this quickly, but basically what I said before, I think we’re going to see more inventory. We’ve been in a very low inventory for the last couple of years, and I do still think it’s going to take years to recover. I’m not saying this is going to happen in 2026 or 2027. I talked about this earlier. I think this is more in the 2030s, but we’re going to be moving towards there gradually.
Over the next couple of years, I think we’ll see more inventory recover. So that’s going to put some downward pressure on appreciation, but it also means more deals. I’ve said this for a while, but I think appreciation is going to be subdued for a while. It’s going to be slow. We might have flat prices for years to come. We may not see real home prices, inflation adjusted home prices for many years. I actually, we had Mike Simonson on the show from Altos Research knows a lot about this. He said he thinks it could be 10 years. And I know that seems frustrating and I know it can be scary, but it really just means you have to change your approach to investing. It means you have to change your approach to underwriting deals. I personally believe underwriting for very low or even no appreciation is smart.
I think I might even start doing that indefinitely. Actually, when I was writing my book, Real Estate by the Numbers, I wrote it with Jay Scott, great investor. He and I were sort of debating this because I underwrite for appreciation or have for the last 12 years, very modest, two, 3% appreciation for most deals, just because that’s what the long-term average is. But I actually think for the next five, 10 years, although it probably will still have some positive appreciation, as an investor, if you want to be conservative and protect yourself, I’d underwrite for little to no appreciation. That’s what Jay Scott does. He told me he’s never underwritten for appreciation. And that just means you’re going to have to look at a lot more deals. You’re going to have to be a lot more discerning. But if you do that and you can find those deals, which you can, it just takes patience and practice.
But when you find those deals, they are extremely low risk because you’re not counting on any appreciation. You’re counting on all those other benefits that real estate can bring to you. So that’s a takeaway number one, more inventory, lower appreciation, but we are going to get better deal flow. That is the trade off. That’s how it works. When appreciation is high, deals are hard to find. Then the pendulum swings back and deals are easy to find, but appreciation is low. And I think we’re sort of in the middle right now. I don’t think we’ve reached that sort of reality check time when sellers are lowering prices and rent to price to ratios start to improve, but I think we are heading in that direction. This is one of the reasons I am personally going to start focusing more on cashflow than I have in the recent years.
And that’s my plan indefinitely because as we all know, real estate makes you money in four or five different ways. We got cashflow, we got appreciation, taxes, value add, amortization, right? And because appreciation I think is no longer reliable, hopefully it comes. I could be wrong about that. Hopefully it comes, but I just don’t think it’s reliable. It is not obvious that it’s going to boost your returns. So that just means as an investor, what you need to do is just look at those other four things. How do you create a deal where some combination of tax benefits, value add investing, amortization and cash flow get you the return that you are looking for? I’ve been saying this for years, but I look at total return. I look at how my total return is among those five different ways you make money. And so if appreciation’s going to contribute less to my total return, that means those other things are going to have to work a little bit harder.
And for me, cashflow and value add are the things that you can really control. Tax benefits for some people, I’m not a real estate tax professional, so I have limited options on tax benefits. If you have those options, I would recommend getting creative there. But for someone like me or if you’re a W2 employee, cashflow and value add, those are the ways to make money in real estate right now. That’s how I plan to make money in real estate right now. It’s why I flipped the house last year, not because I want to be a flipper, because I want to get better at value add investing. And because I’m making that shift, it does mean it’s harder for me to find deals right now. I haven’t pulled the trigger on anything this year. I do want to try and buy some real estate this year, but I haven’t been able to find anything that has the right return for me.
But I will just say anecdotally and talking to friends that better and better deals are coming. I’m looking at more that are interesting and I firmly believe that more are coming. Like I said, that’s the trade off. The pendulum is swinging back in the right direction. This may sound like a bold claim, but I actually think over the next couple of years, cashflow will get easier to find. I think that prices are going to stagnate. I think they’re going to fall this year. I don’t think they’re going to grow a lot in the next couple of years. But if you look historically, rents typically don’t fall as much during these types of periods. They might even grow. And so what that means is rent to price ratios will actually get better, meaning that your prospect for cash flow is going to get better. I don’t think it’s going to get us back to where we saw rent to price ratios after the great financial crisis, but it will get closer.
And that means cashflow will get better in the coming years. And so that’s sort of the shift that I am making. Take what the market is giving you. It is going to give us less appreciation. It is probably going to give us more cash flow. Have we reached the part where cashflow is easy to find? No. And that’s frustrating. And that means you have to be extremely patient right now, which is what I am doing and what I recommend you do as well. That’s at least the way I’m approaching this, but I would love to hear your opinions on this and how you’re going to approach investing in light of this demographic shift that is going on. That’s what we got for you today for On The Market. I’m Dave Meyer. We’ll see you next time.

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Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Today, we’re talking all about syndications—how they work, how they make you money, and what goes on behind the scenes. You’ll learn about the two main roles in a syndication deal—general partners (GPs) and limited partners (LPs)—and their responsibilities. We’ll also show you exactly what you need to get started, whether you’re the one finding and managing the property or simply coming on board as a passive investor!

How does investing in a syndication deal compare to owning rental properties? We cover the pros and cons of this strategy, the biggest red flags to watch for when vetting operators (or “sponsors”), and the investing risks you must weigh before committing to any syndication deal.

Ashley:
If you’ve been around real estate investing for more than five minutes, you’ve probably heard the word syndication thrown around. And if you’re a rookie, you’re probably thinking, “What is that? And should I even be paying attention to it? ”

Tony:
Yeah, it’s one of those terms that gets sauced around like everyone’s just supposed to understand it, but no one explains it in plain English. What it actually is, how it works, whether it even makes sense for where you’re at right now. So today we’re breaking it all down. What a syndication actually is, how people make money with them, what risks are there, and then how it compares to owning rentals yourself.

Ashley:
And we’re also going to talk about the other side of it, what it really takes to run a syndication, because that part gets glamorized a lot and the reality is very different than what you see on social media. This is The Real Estate Rookie Podcast. I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony J. Robinson. And with that, let’s talk about what a syndication is like in plain English. So a syndication without any of the crazy jargon is basically a group of people pooling their money together to buy something together. You can technically syndicate anything. You could syndicate a racehorse. Our friend Mauricio Raul talks about syndicating race horses. You can syndicate a restaurant. You can syndicate buying a business. That’s what private equity is, is basically a big syndication of people pooling money to go buy businesses. But obviously this is the Real Estate Rookie Podcast. When we talk about syndications in our industry, it’s a real estate syndication. So generally speaking, you have two groups of people inside of a syndication. We talk about who’s involved. The first group of people are your general partners and the second group of people are your limited partners. Your general partners are the folks doing all of the work associated with the deal.
And your limited partners are the people bringing the capital to the deal. So generals are the ones doing all the work, limited are the ones bringing the capital. Those two groups work together to buy whatever asset it is being purchased through that syndication.

Ashley:
So the next thing is a syndication, just a fancy word for using someone else’s money. If you’re pooling money, can you just say, “Hey, everybody, give me your money and I’m going to go and buy something.” But really there is a lot of more to that. There is the general partners and there are the limited partners. And depending what side you’re on, this could be a passive investment versus more active. When we think of your normal day real estate investing, you’re going out and buying. It is more active. When you are investing in a syndication, you are passive. You have no control. You may have some voting rights, right? Tony, compared based on different things in a syndication, depending how it’s structured. But other than that, you are not operating the deal, you are not finding the deal, and you really don’t get a say in much at all.
Also, there’s a difference in kind of control versus convenience. If you’re just buying a property yourself or maybe you’re in a small partnership with a syndication, you have no control, but it’s also convenient. You just give your money and you let them do all the work and hopefully you’re getting some dividends, you’re getting a return or you’re getting a big cash out when they sell the property in the end. So there are differences as far as that as to investing. So when you think of a syndication, really think about, first of all, what side of the syndication you would rather be on. And we’re going to break into that more as to what each side looks like. But first we’re going to talk more about the passive side when you are invested as a limited partner and you’re just giving money to be in the deal.
So this is a question that’s probably popping into your head. Do I need to be rich to invest in a syndication? We often see if somebody posts about a deal that’s saying it’s a $50,000 minimum, $100,000 minimum to invest. And there’s two different … Actually, there’s probably more that I don’t even know about, but there’s usually two SEC regulations. Okay? So that’s another thing we haven’t talked about is that syndications are regulated by the SEC. Where if Tony and I just went and partnered on a deal, we are not obligated to follow the SEC regulations. It’s when you pool a large group of people’s money and there are people that are not active. So even if it is a couple people, if they’re not active in the property, like Tony and I, if we invest in a deal, we both need to actually materially participate.
Even if that’s just Tony reconciling the bank account every month and me doing the rest, they have to have active and material participation in the deal to not be under … Sorry. To not be under the SEC rules and regulations. Tony, do you want to break down the two kind of … What is 50? Yeah, these are those.

Tony:
Yeah, I’ll break down the differences between the types of syndications that are most commonly used. So again, Ash and I are not securities attorneys, so go talk to someone who’s qualified. We’re just giving you some general education here, but there’s a 506B and a 506C506B, 506C. I like to think of the 506B as the 506 buddy, and the 506C is like the 506 commercial. So on the 506B, as Ashley said, you can raise money from people that you are already buddies with, your friends, your family, people who you have preexisting relationships with. Where if someone from the SEC came and said, “Well, hey, Tony, Ashley gave you a million dollars for your deal.” I can point to 700 plus episodes that we’ve recorded together, all of these text messages and emails, all the meetings we’ve been on together, the vacations we’ve gone on together. I have a preexisting relationship with Ashley, so it’s okay for me to raise money from her under this 506B.
Now, if I just met someone today and then they gave me a million dollars, well, it’s a little bit harder to establish that preexisting relationship. So 506B is for people that you already know. These are warm contacts. These are friends, family, people that you have a relationship with. Under a 506B, you can’t go and advertise on social media or any platform. There’s no general solicitation is what it’s called. So I can’t go send out a mass email to 80,000 people. I can send one email to one person, but if I send it to a big list, that’s soliciting. If I post on my social media, that’s soliciting. If I buy a billboard, that’s soliciting. Any type of general marketing activities that’s one to many is considered soliciting. So that’s not approved through a 506B. A 506C allows for general solicitation. So I can go and get on a podcast.
I can get on YouTube short form. I could put it in a magazine ad if I wanted. I can do whatever I want, right? But there are limitations around who can invest in a 506C.
And you have to do what’s called an accredited investor, which takes me to my next point that you have to be what’s called an accredited investor to invest in a 506C. And that’s basically kind of like a fancy way of saying you have to have some level of income or net worth to be able to prove to the SEC that you’re what they call a seasoned investor. So the requirements for being an accredited investor are either $200,000 if you’re an individual of annual income over the last, I think it’s like two or three years, with reason to believe that that will persist going into next year. Or if you’re a married couple is $300,000 or a net worth of at least $1 million, not including your primary residence. So it can either be based on income or based on net worth. I’ve heard rumblings of them changing those figures because it’s been the same for a while now, but I believe as of today, that’s still what it is, but that’s the trade-off.
506C, I can go in mass markets. So if I’ve got a big brand or a lot of folks, I can go market it, but I can’t get the kind of everyday investors. 506B, I can’t market it, but I have maybe a wider demographic of folks that I can then go market it to.

Ashley:
So then the next question is, what do you actually own in a syndication? And you’re actually owning a percentage of the property or properties that are in the syndication deal. You’ll notice that your name isn’t specifically in the deed because there will be some kind of company set up that you will be a limited partner in. You are going to most likely put your money into the syndication, so give your money, and then they are going to go and buy the property. So you’ll mostly commit to the purchase of the property before they actually own it. Then you’ll buy the property, and then when they go and refinance or sell the property, that is oftentimes when you’re going to be repaid or even bought out of the property. So it will really depend on the term you sign on for when you’re doing the syndication.
Oftentimes you’ll see it’s a three-year commitment where they’re going to hold onto the property or they’re not going to refinance for three years and they’re going to stabilize the property. Tony, how do you have your hotel set up? Do you have a certain timeframe as to when investors will be paid back where you’re going to refinance or sell the property?

Tony:
Not explicitly stated. Our note is a 10-year note, so that’s kind of the timeframe that we’re up against more than anything, is just making sure that we either refinance or exit within the first 10 years of owning it. So we’ve got some flexibility there, but just going back to your point earlier, Ash, on the structure piece, just as an example, let’s say that I’m the general partner and I need to raise, just for basic numbers, let’s say that I need to raise $10. And of that $10, all of that’s coming from my limited partners. If I buy, say Ashley is a passive investor and Ashley buys two shares, so she spends $2, that means she owns 20% of that limited partner pie. But remember, the limited partner pie is not the entire pie because me as a general partner, I own, call it maybe 30%.
So Ashley, with her $2 investment, owns 20% of the 70%, 20% of the 70%. So on a property that’s maybe worth, again, for just round numbers sake, let’s say the property’s worth $100, 70% of 100 is $70, 20% of 70 is seven times 0.2, which is 1.4. So Ashley owns $14 out of that $100 pie based on her 20% ownership. So I know the math gets a little tricky, but just trying to break it down for you as best as we can that when you invest in a syndication, your ownership is based on the amount of money that you put into the deal for your investment. So unless you put up 100%, you’re typically not going to own 100% of that deal. It’s some smaller percentage.

Ashley:
And you have to look for what percentage is available to the limited partners. In your example, you would use 70%. So there is no way that you would be able to own 100% of the property because it is two separate pools there. Okay. So now that you’ve invested your money into the syndication, I put my $2 into Tony’s syndication, how do you actually make money in a syndication and when? So now, Tony, this is on the passive investor side, and we’ll go and we’ll talk about the general partner side later and how they make their money, but what is your first opportunity when you put money into a syndication to actually seize some money back to you? Yeah.

Tony:
Well, first I’ll say that most syndications, at least in the real estate space, probably aren’t returning anything for the first couple of years. They’ve spent in the first couple of years to really stabilize that property and stabilize that asset, improve income, decrease expenses to be able to eke out profit and improve that profit as time goes on. So 2025 was our first operating year, our first full year operating in the hotel, and we didn’t do any distributions. All of the cash stayed within that business, but we did a really, really good job, especially on the back half of 2025 of starting to reduce our labor expenses and increase our income. We’re recording this right now in February of 2025. January and February are the slowest months of the year for a hotel, incredibly, incredibly slow. But we doubled our January revenue year over year, but we also cut our labor expenses at half for January of 2025.
So those are the things we’re really working on in a syndication is trying to improve operational efficiency, increase revenue and all those things. So first, it takes some time to really get to that point. But usually the first opportunity you have to realize any sort of return from a syndication is through distribution. So it means that there’s cashflow being produced by the property, that pile of cashflow gets to a point that’s big enough to say, “Hey, we’ve got enough in this pile here to start sending money back to all of our limited partners.” And it’s usually a very small percentage as you start. And again, that number starts to ramp up as that deal matures and progresses. So cashflow would be the first. The second, and this is where a lot of those bigger chunks of cash start to come back, is if there’s a refinance.
So let’s say that someone buys a deal initially maybe on some sort of bridge debt or basically like hard money, and then they refinance at year two or year three. And during that refinance, because they’ve, again, increased the income, decreased the expenses, increased the profit that’s being produced, a bank looks at that and says, “Hey, you bought this for two million, but now I think it’s worth four. So I’ll give you a loan for three million.” So now there’s a million dollars that they just made that they can go send back to a lot of their folks who have invested into that deal. So that’s one way. And then the biggest thing that we typically see is that the biggest payday comes when that property sells. So they buy it for two, maybe 10 years later, five years later, it’s worth 10. And now they just made eight million bucks and that’s when those private money investors get a really big check at the end.

Ashley:
We are going to take a quick break, but when we come back, we’re going to cover what it is like to be a GP, a general partner of a syndication and running the deal. We’ll be right back. Okay. Welcome back. So what’s the big difference between being a passive investor in the LP side or being the sponsor and being part of the general partnership? So sponsors, Tony, what is the actual duty and responsibility of a sponsor of a deal?

Tony:
Basically everything. They’re the ones that are sourcing the market, deciding on the market. They’re the ones that within that market. They’re the ones that are sourcing the deal. Once the deal is found, they’re doing the underwriting. Once the underwriting is confirmed and they’re negotiating on the contract, once the contract is signed, they’re doing all of the due diligence. Once the due diligence is done, they’re the ones that are going through the managing the rehab, repositioning the property, whatever it may be, and then managing the property long-term oftentimes comes down to either the GP or they’re maybe managing a property manager as well. So every single part of the transaction falls under the responsibility of the general partner. Again, the limited partners are really there just to bring the capital, the GPs do literally everything else.

Ashley:
And when we say the sponsor, that’s not necessarily one person, that’s a group of people. Tony, how many people are actually in your general partnership?

Tony:
So for us, we actually set ours up slightly differently because there’s only four of us involved on that deal. We didn’t actually syndicate this deal. We did this as a joint venture. Now- Oh,

Ashley:
I didn’t know that. Oh, then we can cut this part out or we can

Tony:
Keep. So because there’s only four of us, we actually didn’t run this as a syndication. We did it as a small joint venture. Now, the difference here is that one, all of our partners have voting rights. So I’m the manager of our NC and I’m also the property manager, but I can be voted out at any time by my other three partners because they have the voting rights to say, “Tony, you’re actually doing a really poor job managing this. We want to hire someone else, so I can be voted out at any time.” So we meet quarterly to discuss performance and do all those things. So there’s a certain level of involvement that all of our partners have. I’m still responsible for the majority of the day-to-day, but all of the major decision-making. I can’t sell it on my own. I can’t refinance it on my own.
I can’t even replace myself on my own. I’d have to get buy-in from all of our other partners. So we structured ours as a joint venture, making sure that they were voting rights, making sure that everyone had an actual say on the different actions that go into it, and then keeping each other in the loop and leveraging each other’s expertise to make those decisions around what we do at scale for the property. Yeah.

Ashley:
I honestly had no idea this whole time I thought you did a syndication, but honestly, a joint venture, I would way rather do that than just a syndication deal all day long. Let

Tony:
Me just hear that because we had attempted two syndications prior to that. And neither one of those were able to raise enough money to actually closing those deals. First deal, I think we raised four million out of six million that we needed. The second deal, we got halfway on a $3 million raise.

Ashley:
And I think clarify that when you mean raised. It’s not like you had people give you money and then you sat with it in your bank account. No,

Tony:
That’s exactly what happened. That’s exactly how it happened. So we raised everyone’s money, right? So we had all these different webinars and-

Ashley:
Oh, okay. I thought you would’ve just got commitment, but you actually got to the point of taking their money. Wow.

Tony:
We had money wired in the bank. We had four million bucks sitting in a bank account for this deal. And then as the funds kind of dried up, we had to go back and wire all those funds back and have people to say, “Hey, we didn’t get to the raise.” So it was a very, I think a lot of learning, obviously very frustrating, but we learned a lot through both of those processes, which is why for the third go around, we’re like, “Hey, let’s just go a little bit smaller. Let’s try and simplify this process.” And that was one that we were finally successful with, but that’s how we set up the hotel to make it easier on ourselves.

Ashley:
I was going to do a syndication too. I think probably it was around the time maybe when you were going to do the West Virginia one. Was that the one of them? Okay. Yeah. And mine was a campground and we got the campground under contract. I put a $100,000 earnest money deposit down, but gave myself 60 days due diligence period or something like that. But I met with attorneys, everything like, “Okay, what do I need to do for a syndication?” And then during my due diligence period, I just found so many more issues than I expected with this campground and we ended up getting out of the deal, getting our earnest money deposit back. And I am so thankful because I don’t think that I understood the responsibility of being a GP and how much you are responsible to other people. And I just don’t think that I have the … First of all, I don’t like to take a phone call.
So having to … First of all, pitch to investors, following up with them, what’s going on with the property. And I know there’s all systems and processes to set up like that, but I really like the fact that if I make a mistake or I decide against something or I don’t take action on something, and if I lose money because of it, it’s me losing money and I’m not losing it for anybody else. If I decide to go hang out with my kids for one day and it’s going to lose me a hundred dollars because I’m not doing something one day sooner, that’s okay. It hurts me. I’m taking the laws because I want to do that. But I learned a bunch of things about the syndication process, but not to the full extent that you definitely have going through the deals.

Tony:
Yeah. So I do think that 4A Ricky, doing a syndication on the GP side as your first deal would probably be a bigger undertaking because there’s a lot that goes into it. So if you are interested in syndication as a GP, as a general partner, the person putting the deal together, my strong recommendation would be to find someone who’s already done a few successful syndications and see what value you can bring to them. So if someone came to me with the hotel and said, “Hey, Tony, I’ve got a great hotel that it’s under contract. I just need your help with everything else. I need your help raising the capital. I need your help managing the rehab. I need your help managing it once we get it. I need your help with all these different pieces.” I would love to give someone a piece of the pie because they brought together the deal that maybe they can execute on themselves.
So if you are a Ricky that’s listening, one, send me a DME on Instagram @TonyjRobinson if you find something, but second, partner with someone who I think can fill those gaps for you to make it a little bit easier to get that first one done.

Ashley:
Yeah, it’s definitely a lot of things to figure out and a lot of legal implications. And also a big thing is having someone sign for the debt. If you’re doing a huge deal, they’re going to want, what’s the word for it, the person that’s going to sign on the debt that has the high net worth-

Tony:
A KP, a key principle.

Ashley:
A KP.

Tony:
Yeah. And what they’re looking for is someone who’s like, “Hey, if we’re going to write you a loan for millions of dollars, we need someone on your team who has the net worth to cover this debt that we’re giving it to. ” Because even if you find a great deal, even if the numbers look fantastic on paper, who knows what could happen in the future? So the banks want to make sure that they have some form of guarantee to say, “Hey, the buck has to stop somewhere. We got to get paid.” So the buck’s got to stop somewhere. But what I will say also is that depending on what size of property you go after, our buy box specifically asked for our hotel was we wanted seller financing. And while that limited us on some options, it also gave us incredible flexibility in that initial acquisition because we were able to negotiate terms that really played, really it was a win-win.
It worked out really great for the sellers, but also worked out really well for us. It wouldn’t have to jump through the hoops that a traditional bank might’ve made us jump through. So there are other levers there I think that might work as you’re looking to put the deals together also.

Ashley:
Okay. Then kind of another topic if you are thinking about being a sponsor of a deal is, do you need your own money in the deal? And technically, no, you could raise all the money, but I would say probably anybody that’s teaching or talking about investing in a syndication, when they talk about how to vet the sponsor, how to vet the deal is one, I would say this is probably in the top five of the first questions you should ask, is are they putting capital into the deal themselves? So are they having some skin in the game? And I think that just shows they believe in this deal too. They’re committed to this deal, that they’re investing their own capital. So I would say yes, you’re going to have an easier time finding people to invest in the deal if you’re showing that you’re committing your own money and putting it into the deal too.

Tony:
I will say, even if you are able to find a deal, raise all the capital without putting any money into the actual deal yourself, there’s still other costs that you as the general partner are responsible for. I mean, just putting together all of the paperwork for a syndication is tens of thousands of dollars. It’s not a small expense to put together this paperwork for the deal. I think on our last indication, we spent like 30 or $40,000 on paperwork just on the paperwork that people are going to sign was 30 or $40,000.

Ashley:
And just think that’s not even like it wasn’t guaranteed either. You ended up sending money back and it didn’t happen. Yeah.

Tony:
That’s a college tuition that we just spent on paperwork.

Ashley:
Sorry, Sean, you’re not going to college. Here’s some documents that we blew up.

Tony:
Here’s the TPMs that you can go through. So there’s that, right? There’s the legal cost. There’s the due diligence, just getting out to the property, paying for inspections. Even just like an appraisal on a commercial property is significantly more expensive than an appraisal on a single family home. An inspection on a commercial property is significantly more expensive than a single family home. Even your earnest money deposit. The first syndication that we attempted, we put in about 50 grand for our EMD. Our EMD alone was 50 grand, and then we spent, I believe, another maybe 50 or 60 grand between our legal docs and our initial due diligence. So we were all in for about a hundred grand on this deal that did not close. So you’ve got to make sure that someone’s got to foot that bill. So if it’s not you, that you have a partner who’s willing to commit that sort of capital, but it is definitely a more capital intensive game to get into.

Ashley:
Now let’s talk about why a lot of people want to be a sponsors and how they get paid. So here’s the important thing to know right here is that they make money on the purchase and the sale, but during the actual operation, it’s very minimal that they end up making, especially if the property isn’t performing well, if you’re not seeing distributions, they’re not getting distributions. They can be the operator or the property manager and charge fees for that, but it tends to be very minimal compared to the money that they make upfront. So there’s usually an acquisition fee, which is a huge chunk of money. And that is for paying them for their time to source the deal, to get it under contract, to cover some of those upfront expenses for their time to do the due diligence and the time to collect everybody’s money and get all the paper signed, everything like that.
There’s usually a huge sum that they’re making upfront from just the acquisition of the property.

Tony:
Yeah. So the acquisition fee is definitely one big piece. And then to your point, Ash, there’s the asset management fee that a lot of syndications will charge where that’s on a regular basis, could be monthly, could be quarterly. The general partnership is charging the syndication of fee for continuing to manage this asset on an ongoing basis. And that’s separate from the property management fee. There’s usually, again, a separate property management fee. The asset management fee is for being the person just overseeing the property to make sure that everything’s moving correctly. And then the third fee would be the property management fee. Some syndication or syndicators do this in- house, others farm this out, but for the ones that really want to make sure they’ve got cash flow coming in, they’ll do property management in- house. So they collect the property management fee, they collect the asset management fee, they get the acquisition fee upfront.
And then if there’s a big capital event, sale, refinance, et cetera, they’ll get some percentage of the proceeds from that as well.

Ashley:
Okay. Then kind of the last piece here for, if you’re going to be a sponsor is you need a team along with any other partners you have on the deal. You need an attorney, a CPA, you need a lender, property managers. You need somebody who’s going to be able to support you in different elements. You cannot do all of this yourself. And if you’re buying a multimillion dollar property, sorry to say it. I really, really love Tony’s short-term rental calculator. I really, really love the BiggerPockets calculator That’s not going to cut it to underwrite a $100 million multifamily property. You’re going to need something more complex. And then also just asset management support. My one really good friend is the sponsor for a syndication and there was this one time we went on a family vacation and literally half the time she was on the phone trying to get insurance quotes for these properties and negotiating the insurance and figuring all this out.
So there definitely is a lot of work that goes into the deal upfront when you’re acquiring it and like throughout. So if there are things that you don’t want to manually do or take care of, you’re going to need to hire somebody on your team to take care of those things. All

Tony:
Right. So we’re going to take a quick break, but while we’re going, if you’re not yet subscribed to the Real Estate Rookie YouTube channel, you can find us there at realestaterookie that way you can not only hear money nationally’s voices, but see our faces every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and we’ll be back with more of it after this. All right, we’re back. So we talked about the syndication from the side of the limited partnership, the people putting money into the deal. We talked about it from the side of the general partnership, the folks who are actually managing and putting everything together. Well, let’s kind of finish off by talking about how do we know if a syndication is a good deal or just total garbage. So what are some of the red flags look out for, why sometimes projected returns can be a little misleading, and just the importance of focusing on the operator’s track record.
So red flags and pitch deck, I think first and foremost, it’s maybe the underwriting piece that Ash talked about before we took our last break. We want to make sure that there’s a level of realism, I guess, inside of the projections that we see. It’s almost like when you see any deal and you see a pro forma from the person that’s selling it, those are always the rosiest, most optimistic, sometimes unrealistic projections that you could see. And if some Someone’s pitching a deal to you based on the proformas that were given to them by the seller, by the broker who’s on the deal, that will be a big red flag for me. I want to see a lot of research that went into how this deal was actually put together.
For example, when we pitched our hotel to our potential partners, one of the things that we did to put all of our data together, we did not use my Airbnb calculator, like Ashley alluded to before, because to her point, that doesn’t work on a big deal. What we used was a custom underwriting tool that we paid someone a few thousand dollars to build out for us for all of our hotels, because that was the strength that we needed in our underwriting. We went through and we looked at every single calendar for all of the comparable hotels in that same town, and we manually clicked through their calendar for 12 months out to get a sense of how their pricing was. We got data from the brokers on what is the average ADRs in the market and what is the average occupancy in the market. We looked through all of the one bed and single room Airbnb listings to see what they were charging both historically and looking for to give us a better understanding of what the property could do.
So you just want to see a level of rigor in their underwriting to make sure that they’re presenting the right data. The second thing is you also want to see that they’ve stress tested this deal.What happens if the assumptions are off by 5% or 10%? What happens if they’re off by 20%? Did they just assume best case scenario or did they give some variance in how that property might perform? The last piece that you want to see is what is the actual business plan? What are we trying to execute on here? Is the goal that, hey, this is actually a really good property, but it’s just maybe being mismanaged. Do we need to improve the marketing? If I’m buying a hotel, are they only on their own direct booking website and they’re not on booking.com or Expedia or all these other travel platforms? Is there an opportunity there just to exact same property and maybe get more distribution?
Is it a heavy rehab? Are we going through and are we rehabbing every single property? Is it maybe an expansion? Is there room to add more units? What is the business plan and what are the underlying economics that make that business plans down? And then the final piece I think would be the team. Who’s on the team? What’s their track record? How much of this have they actually done before? What was the level of success on those deals? Or if there were failures, what did they learn? And how were they incorporating that into this deal? So those are the things I’m probably looking for, Ash.

Ashley:
I think one thing too that we’ve seen more and more often is, oh, they have a social media following that they’re probably good to invest with. And I think that’s for all things, not just syndications as, oh, this person has a following. They must be trustworthy. Other people must believe in them or they must be good at what they do if they have a huge following. So I think make sure that you’re not basing, doing a syndication off of popularity, I guess, and really doing your due diligence on the person and the deal and the team members. So the last thing here before we wrap up is, what is the worst case scenario in a syndication? If you are investing in a syndication deal, the worst case scenario is you lose it all and you get nothing back. So if you’re looking at $100,000 minimum and you put in $100,000, that can mean over a two, three year span that you are getting nothing.
You don’t get any payouts, no dividends, nothing disbursements over that period of time. And then the property fails and it could be foreclosed on by the bank, taken by the bank, and you are left with nothing. There could be sold at a loss where maybe you get part of it returned. So there are different outcomes, but when you are doing a syndication, you have to understand that you are not in control. So if the property does fail, there’s nothing you can do about it to turn it around and you have to rely on the people that are the operators that are part of the GP. So make sure you are doing your due diligence because in the end, you can blame the people who brought you the deal. You can blame the sponsors as much as you want, but this is a risk you have to know can happen when you are investing in a syndication that you could not get any of your money back.
And I think that’s one thing that I really like about being a smaller investor is that I have control over the deal and that if the property is poorly performing, that I feel like I could do some things to at least get a partial return on my investment. And I think that’s a lot harder to do when you’re talking huge multimillion dollar properties to be able to turn them around quickly or to exit quickly. I think we’ve seen a lot in the last several years. In 2021, it was everybody became a syndicator. I mean, I almost became a syndicator. Tony almost became a syndicator. It was like the next, you got to do it. Once you’re investing in real estate, the next step up is doing a syndication. And that’s the next big thing. And it was deals were just flowing and there was so much opportunity, there was low interest rates, and we could do a whole nother episode on what happened during the last several years.
And if that’s something you would be interested in, go ahead and put in the comments here on YouTube. We can kind of go over how so many syndication deals have struggled the last several years of what they went through. And a lot of it obviously has to do with the change in the market, the change in rates. And don’t worry, we’ll bring an expert on for you guys to talk about that and dive deep into the numbers on that if you guys are interested. Well, thank you so much for listening. I’m Ashley. He’s Tony and rookies. Remember, syndication, not the best way to start out in real estate investing as a rookie, get some experience under your belt or partner with someone like Tony. Find him a hotel and D him at TonyJRobinson, or you can DM me if you find a lake house at Wealth Room Rentals.
Okay. We’ll see you guys next time. Thanks so much for listening.

 

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In just around five years, these two investors went from zero rentals to financial freedom through real estate. In their own words, “I want as few doors as possible with as much money as possible.”

That’s what we’re all after as real estate investors. How can we generate the most passive income with the fewest properties, headaches, and issues to deal with? A little over five years ago, Amelia McGee and Grace Gudenkauf were willing to buy any property with any problem, to get in the game. They wanted to quit their jobs, become their own bosses, own their time, and live the lives they imagined—not be tied to a paycheck.

Now, they’ve achieved financial freedom and are sharing the five things that got them there. What’s the one thing Grace and Amelia say every new landlord should put in place at the start? Why is day-one cash flow overrated, and what’s the thing that actually makes you wealthy? Plus, why do they think “growing” to a big portfolio is too risky and not worth the effort?

Grace and Amelia learned all these lessons the hard way over the past five years. Today, we’re giving them to you in under an hour so you can get to financial freedom even faster.

Dave:
These investors reached financial freedom in less than five years of real estate investing. Today, they’re sharing the five most important lessons they’ve learned along the way. Grace Gutenkoff and Amelia McGee started investing less than a decade ago. By 2021, they both left stable jobs to go all in on real estate. In the early years, it felt like the cash would never roll in. They were grinding, grabbing any deal they could get, wondering if they’d made the right choice by leaving their jobs. Then the shift happened. By year three, they started seeing real results, real cash flow. They could start being selective about what properties they bought and which partners they worked with. Now, five years in, they both have stable portfolios and financial freedom. They’re optimizing to achieve the simple, stress-free real estate businesses they envisioned from the beginning. With these five lessons, you can follow the same path and soon have your own life-changing, passive income streams.
Hello again, friends. I’m Dave Meyer. He’s Henry Washington. Our guests today on the show are Grace Gutenkoff and Amelia McGee. You may know them as the founders of The Wire community. They’ve spoken at BP Con and wrote the BiggerPockets book, The Self-Managing Landlord. Grace and Amelia have each accomplished so much in this industry that it’s hard to believe they’ve only been investing in real estate for about five years. But it’s true. They both started separately right around 2019, and we wanted to have them back on today because I think their journeys have been very typical of what most investors experience. At the beginning, it’s a grind. There are strategic pivots. And then if you hang on long enough, you achieve financial freedom. Grace and Amelia have learned a lot of lessons even during their relatively short investing career, and today they’re sharing the five most important lessons that will help you get to that financial freedom even faster.
So let’s bring them on. Grace and Amelia, welcome back to the show. We’re excited to have you here.

Grace:
Thank you.

Amelia:
Thank you.

Dave:
So we’re going to get into these five most important lessons you’ve learned from five years of investing, but actually want to start at the end so people can hear what’s on the other side of all the hard work that you’ve done. So maybe each of you can just summarize your investing careers and where your portfolios stand today. Amelia, let’s start with you.

Amelia:
Absolutely. So I’ve been investing since 2019, and I would say I’m your self-proclaimed bestie girl, big sister real estate investor here to share the lessons we learned over the last five, six, seven years. I invest in Des Moines, Iowa, and I currently have a portfolio of around 40 doors. I’ve dabbled in a little bit of everything, long-term, midterm, and short-term rentals. Grace and I are also the co-authors of the BiggerPockets book, The Self-Managing Landlord. So if you haven’t grabbed that yet, definitely make sure you do that. But I invest in real estate as a means to an end, as a way to live a true life of freedom. And I think that’s truly possible. My goal is to have as few doors as possible and make as much money as possible. So I can’t wait to share all the lessons we’ve learned as your big sister in real estate.

Dave:
Fewest doors as possible, most money as possible. I can get on board with that. All right, Grace, what is your portfolio and maybe give us a little background as well?

Grace:
I’m also an Iowa investor. I’m in Eastern Iowa. Everything I own is a 15-minute radius. I have about 25 doors, just like Amelia. Tried a little bit of everything, and I’ve landed on new construction lately as being the key to all of my problems. Really looking for low maintenance, easy assets that make sure that I don’t have to be anxious looking at my phone and things can just be taken care of. And I can be really proud of my units while doing the things that I love in life, but also been investing for five, six years. And I primarily do right now new construction and midterm and long term.

Dave:
All right. Well, now that you all have been doing this for a couple of years, we want to hear your top five lessons for your first five years in real estate investing. Grace, lead us off. What’s lesson number one?

Grace:
Lesson number one is that systems matter more than you think and should be implemented right away sooner than you think. And here’s a few examples of why. Number one, you have the scrappy investor like Amelia and I who got started, learned how to buy really quickly and quickly built a portfolio. And it wasn’t until things started to get really crazy and maybe slipped through the cracks that we realized that systems mattered. And we do talk a lot about what systems specifically we think you should have in the self-managing landlord. But on the other hand, there’s also the investor who maybe only has one rental. You get a tenant, you put the tenant in, they’re amazing. They stay there for 10 years. And then when they leave, you have no clue how to get another tenant because you didn’t write anything down. You don’t have any SOPs and you don’t have any systems.

Henry:
I learned this lesson pretty early on. I probably didn’t implement my learnings from this lesson as early as I should have, but I still to this day remember my first few rentals, I didn’t care how people paid me rent. I was so blown away that people actually wanted to pay me rent. And then when I got to like five doors and I realized I was running around at the first of every month, between the fifth of every month to multiple houses and going to the bank four times and realizing I didn’t remember who paid what. It was a nightmare. And that’s when I started looking at property management systems and that made my life a whole lot easier. And I was like, oh, there’s got to be other systems then. Why am I doing all this so manually? But when you’re new, especially when you’re trying to get proof of concept, I was like, yeah, any way I can get the money, pay me the money.
But systems definitely change things for me. I think the hard part for new investors is knowing what systems they need first and what makes sense in terms of a price point for them.

Amelia:
I think that we would probably all be in agreement here that the very first system that you need is a strong property management software. Like you were saying, Henry, running around and collecting rent every which way gets exhausting real quick. After the dopamine hit runs off of getting your first three rent checks from a tenant, you’re like, oh man, this is way more work than I bargained for. So a property management software that not only is able to collect rent and e-sign leases, but also has a strong maintenance request department. I think that’s really important. If your tenants are texting you, Facebook messaging you, emailing you, calling you, literally all of Instagram messaging, that is so disorganized. And honestly, it provides a poor experience for your tenants. And our ultimate goal is to keep tenants as happy as possible so that they stay for as long as possible.
Because if we have a lot of turnovers, number one, our cashflow gets cut and significantly gets cut down. And number two, it’s just draining and you’re going to hit burnout. So I think number one, property management software. A lot of them these days can do a lot of different things. So you might not even need more than that for the first year or two.

Dave:
And actually, if you’re a BiggerPockets Pro member, you can get rent ready for free. That’s just part of the subscription. So that’s absolutely something that you can do. And I think people wait way too long for this, as you said. I think the challenge though is they don’t know how to even evaluate the tools because they’ve never done any of the processes before. So you’re like, how do I know what a good property management software is if I’ve never even communicated with a tenant before? Are there any things that you think are particularly important or should you just go buy one of these reputable softwares and trust that it has everything you need?

Grace:
Don’t pay for one that is going to charge you per unit because it’s going to get expensive quickly. And then like Amelia said, e-sign, maintenance requests, communication and rent payment. As long it has those four things, you should be pretty good. And when it comes to not even knowing what to do with the tenant, another piece of advice that goes along with this is write down what you do. Even if it’s just bullet points so that you can turn it into a standard operating procedure later, that’s going to be so helpful for when you go try to do something a second time, you don’t have to recreate the wheel or do what I call as the sit and think where you sit and think, “Hmm, what am I supposed to do next?” You can just read your own notes and not even have to use your brain.

Henry:
Especially now. What an advantage new investors have with AI being implemented because I use ChatGPT and other AI tools to do SOPs now, and you honestly don’t even have to write it down anymore. You can just talk to it and tell it the steps and tell it to create an SOP. A, that’s easiest. But the biggest cheat code I’ve found, if you’re using software tools and you want to create an SOP on how to use a software tool, ChatGPT has an agent mode now. You can say, “Log into my system, do this task, write down each step, and you can have it create an SOP for you. ” Man,

Dave:
You trust ChatGPT way more than me. I’m not giving it my passwords.That’s crazy.

Henry:
Dave.

Amelia:
Dave, it already knows your

Henry:
Password. It knows your passwords, Dave. It has access to everything already. You’re not that cool.

Amelia:
Baby, it knows your password, your social, your blood type. Yeah.

Henry:
You sound like a boomer right now. It already knows, Dave.

Dave:
No, I’m still terrified. And don’t remind me. What about other systems outside of just property management? Are there other things that you recommend getting started really early with?

Grace:
A little bit more advanced. Monday.com as a project management software. I’m building, and I was laughing the other day because my GC messaged me and said, “This project’s moving faster than your Monday chart can be updated.” He knows that I love my Monday chart. I want to see the budget, the timeline when everything is happening. And that is a great system to also build out SOPs and tasks when you’re closing on a property, when you’re inheriting a tenant, when you’re turning a tenant over, it can lay out all those tasks and add deadlines and who’s supposed to do them.

Dave:
I love that advice. I think that just the order of operations or remembering to do things is so good. Henry and I were joking the other day about how we always forget to move our utilities over when you close on a property. Yes. I use Airtable. It’s very similar to monday.com, similar kind of thing, but you could just program it to send you a text or to remind you to do these things. And it is so fricking helpful. I just can’t imagine how much time and money I would’ve saved. All right. So those are two great systems that you should set up. I’m just going to throw in bookkeeping too. Just find someone to do your bookkeeping. It will save you so much fricking time.

Grace:
I was going to say that.

Amelia:
As a big sister here in real estate, my biggest piece of advice is once you get past three properties, you should really be hiring out a professional bookkeeper. That is not the best use of your time as an investor, unless of course you’re a bookkeeper by trade and you can do it really, really well very quickly. Otherwise, you can make more money elsewhere.

Dave:
I would just want to say and summarize this whole conversation is like we’re talking about systems, we’re talking about these softwares that you should use. It might sound like a lot, but the basic gist here is just treat your rental property like a business. These are things that any business has to do. Set up bookkeeping, get a good email, figure out the software that’s going to help you run your business most effectively. We call it investing. Real estate is really entrepreneurship. You’re a small business. Just figure out the right tools that are going to help you run your business effectively. And Mili and Grace have given awesome advice for how you can get that set up. We do have to take a quick break, but when we come back, we’re going to hear Amelia and Grace’s four other lessons from their first five years of investing.
Stick with us.

Henry:
As a real estate investor, the last thing I want to do or have time for is to play accountant, banker, and debt collector. But that’s what I was doing every weekend, flipping between a bunch of apps, bank statements, and receipts, trying to sort it out by property and figure out who’s late on rent. Then I found Baseline and it takes all that off my plate. It’s BiggerPockets official banking platform that automatically sorts my transactions, matches my receipts, and collects rent for every property. My tax prep is done and my weekends are mine again. Plus, I’m saving a ton of money on banking fees and apps that I don’t need anymore. Get a $100 bonus when you sign up today at baselane.com/bp.

Dave:
Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Podcast. I’m here with Henry, Grace and Amelia talking about lessons Grace and Amelia have learned from their first five years of investing. Lesson one with systems matter earlier than you think. Let’s move on to lesson two. Grace, what is it?

Grace:
Number two is the biggest wealth builder is not cashflow. It’s time. And as we hit years five and six in our portfolio, we’re really starting to feel this. For example, rentals that we bought on day one that were okay with time where the debt’s getting paid down, it’s appreciating. Of course, we’re getting cashflow and tax benefits. Now on paper, those deals are looking a lot better and investors forget that. They think that they can only get in the market with a grand slam and they’re too scared to take any risk. Where if you just get in the game and get time on your side, you see so many more benefits down the

Henry:
Road. I always get screamed at when I say this. Cashflow is the least important way that my real estate pays me. I want to shoot for cashflow every time, but it is not the only metric I’m using to evaluate whether I’ll buy a deal or not. And I would buy a deal that breaks even if some of the other metrics were wholly in my favor. I’d buy a deal that breaks even that’s in a great part of town that’s appreciating massively, that’s going to give me amazing tax benefits and that I walk into 100 to $150,000 of equity on day one on. Yes. I think investors should be focused on cashflow because cashflow is a measure that you bought yourself a decent deal, but the cashflow itself is not what’s going to make you wealthy. It’s the time in the market. It’s owning that asset over time, watching it appreciate, watching that debt pay down.
And then all of those benefits give you additional options, additional buying power. You can cash out refinance. You can pull a HELOC. You can let it continue to pay itself off or accelerate the payoff. There’s so many more options that you get the longer you have an asset in the market, and it’s that compounding that truly builds the wealth, not the one to four to $500 a month of a cash flow that you’re getting off that asset.

Grace:
And that cash out refinance, which is tax-free money because it’s debt, of course it’s debt. You got to make sure you can cover that and service that. But once you hit year five minimum, you’re able to start doing cash out refinances and get more and more chunks of equity to play with. And as I’ve been saying, really play chess within your portfolio once you have a basis and make moves that make the most sense for you. And when you have time on your side, it continues to give you optionality, like you said, Henry, and flexibility because you’re building equity on all ends.

Dave:
It’s a tired analogy, but it’s just a snowball effect. It just starts slow and it builds and it builds and it builds on yourself. And by the time you’re five years into this, 10 years into it, you just realize you have enough capital to do really the things that you want. And it becomes a different game. Like Grace said, it’s just portfolio management, it’s capital allocation, which to me is way more fun than stressing about whether you made 100 or $125 every single month. And it gets you to the big picture just so much faster. I do respect though, when you’re getting started, it’s hard. It is hard to see that five years out. And so you just got to trust us. I don’t know what else to say. It’s just going to work out. As long as you buy a good deal, just give it time and it will work out.

Henry:
I think the caveat we need people to understand is you do need to have cash reserves so that you can hold on to your properties. In the event they aren’t hitting the numbers that you want, right? Because the only way you really lose out on this benefit is if you sell. And so some deals are going to cash flow amazing. Some deals might not cash flow as well. Even if you underwrote them to perform excellently, it sometimes doesn’t work out like that. Your innovation takes longer. You don’t get the rent you are expecting. Something happens in your market. You got to have the cash reserves to hold on, but if you can hold on, the benefits are great. I am in the middle of refinancing one of the first multifamilies that I bought back in 2020. And when I tell you, I closed on this deal January one, 2020, March, COVID hit.
My renovation budget went from $100,000 on this asset to $250,000 because labor and materials went through the roof during COVID. It took me two years. I was stressed out, no rents coming in. It was costing me so much money every month. And I just kept thinking, “Man, why did I buy this asset?” And now I’m sitting here on an asset I owe $750,000 on that’s going to appraise for 1.5 million. You just have to hold on.

Dave:
Nice, dude.

Grace:
We did an interview on our podcast with a gal who had one rental property, bought it in 2007. She’s up 50K in equity, 2008 to 2013. She’s able to hold onto it, but she’s negative 50,000 in equity. So she’s gone up, down. She’s down for a long time. She still has this property today, because like you said, Henry, she had the reserve, she had the income to basically feed that property through the low. Now she’s up 60, $70,000 in equity. So time heals all if you set yourself up for success to be able to hold onto the asset when the market is down.

Dave:
The one thing I’ll add to this is I completely agree. It’s changed my buying strategy a little bit. I haven’t bought new construction, Grace, but I’ve totally stopped buying really old assets or I’m trying to stop buying really old assets because of this. So

Amelia:
Have we.

Dave:
Because I looked it up today. The first building I bought was built in 1896. But I think it’s really changed my perspective because there are great deals on old houses and I’ve made a lot of money on old houses. But as I’ve matured as an investor, I’m just like, I’m only buying stuff that I want to hold onto for a really long time because I’ve had to sell a lot of those older houses. It’s been fine. There were good deals. But now that I’m in a different, less growth oriented stage of my career, I’m like, I’m just going to buy a place that I know even if it gets bad, even if it loses equity, even if I have a vacancy that this is just like a great asset that I want to hold for 20 years, that’s like my number one buy box criteria right now more than anything else.

Amelia:
Yeah, Dave, that is a perfect transition into number three on our list, which is that your buy box should change with time. As you become a better investor, you should be investing in better deals. Grace and I also, we’ve stopped investing in old properties. We’ve stopped investing in monster houses, which that’s what we call single family conversions that are all wonky, so weird. We don’t want those in our portfolios anymore. We’ve sold some of our rentals to reinvest in properties that we really love because now that we have five, six, seven years in the market, we’ve been able to realize, okay, this is the type of property that I really like. This is the type of property that’s going to get me to my end goal of having the smallest portfolio possible while still making great money. And Grace has taken it even a step further to where she’s now just doing new construction projects.
So Grace, I feel like you should share kind of what that looks like and how also a lot of women in our community that we call mid-level investors in the wire community have also kind of switched to this new construction strategy.

Grace:
When we get started, a lot of us are just like, “Can I get into a property anyway? It doesn’t matter what it is, where it’s at or the strategy. As long as I can bur it or do creative financing, I’m interested.” Once you get a few years into your portfolio, you can’t be in growth mode forever. You’ve got to start stabilizing and really looking at what works for you. For me, I realized the pain of my existence is maintenance. And so my buy box really started to change to new construction. Like I said, I fall completely backwards into it. I never set out to do that. I bought an old home, thought I could save it in an area that was incredible, couldn’t save it. So I really, the only way I could get my money back out of it was to build and then refinance.
And so I did. And now I’m onto new build number five and six and seven. But I really had to think about like, okay, what makes me annoyed during the day or stresses me out? And it was realizing it’s coordinating maintenance because so much decision making. Are you going to keep it? Are you going to replace it? Are you going to troubleshoot? Are you going to tell them it’s not an issue that you cover and that it’s just cosmetic? There’s just so much to coordinate and make decisions on there that I wanted things that just didn’t involve it. And for me, new construction, when it presented itself as an opportunity, made sense. And so my buy box has changed to adapt that.

Henry:
Oftentimes, investors start investing based on an exit strategy. They think they want to do a certain type of real estate deal, but in actuality, that real estate deal may not be as profitable as you think it might be. So just because you want to buy a certain asset doesn’t mean that’s the asset that you have the best skillset for, or that’s the asset that your market gives you the best opportunity for. And it takes a few years, like Dave said, for you to start to see, is my property performing like I underwrote it to perform? It takes time to figure that out. So your buy box should change. I absolutely thought I would snap up any multifamily deal that I could buy under a certain loan to value percentage, but I operated one in a market, in a neighborhood that I now know I will never buy another asset in that market, in that neighborhood.
And it took me having to own that asset for a couple of years for me to figure out that I didn’t want to own that asset, even though all of the numbers made sense and all of the particulars of that property fit my buy box at the time. Time will tell you what you should buy. Time will also tell you if you should do what you think you want to do, because oftentimes you hear a lot of people say, “I want to get into this and I want to be a short-term rental operator or I want to get into this and I want to be a house flipper.” You may not be built for that and it’s going to take you some time to figure it out.

Amelia:
I started out as a house flipper and it took me one deal. It took me one flip to say, “Wow, that was way more work than I bargained for. I’m going to buy rentals.”

Dave:
I recommend to most people when you’re early on, just find ways to build equity. If that means that you need to do annoying maintenance, do it. You have to. Go do a Burr, even if it’s a lot of work. Most people aren’t starting with enough capital that they can go out and buy newer deals that are easy to maintain. That’s just the reality of it. So you need early in your career to hustle a little bit. As you get to this harvesting stage that you get to eventually, then you don’t want to do it and you don’t have to do it. So your buy box needs to change. That is totally normal. The one thing I will say though is if you’re in acquisition mode and you’re looking to buy a deal, try and keep a fixed buy box for that deal. I think that’s where people sometimes get confused with this advice because it’s like when you are going out and buying something, you should have a clear idea of what you’re going to buy.
But in sort of the big picture as your career progresses, your next acquisition between acquisitions, that’s when you should be thinking about changing your buy box.

Henry:
All right. These are great lessons and it’s actually a good transition into our next lesson, which we will get to right after this break. All right, we are back with Amelia and Grace, and we are covering the five lessons they have learned as their time as real estate investors. And we’re moving on to our fourth lesson, which is what, Grace?

Grace:
Growth mode cannot be permanent. And this also can be attributed to some of the themes that Chad Carson talks about. And I love the idea of pruning. We as investors have to understand that we can grow, but we have to get to a baseline stability and almost check in and reevaluate before growing again. The investors who never do this, they just go, go, go forever. Those are the investors who end up over leveraged when there’s a market shift. And I was just talking to a friend who was looking at selling some things that she thought she’d never sell. And I said, “Hey, you got to liquidate and stack up capital and reevaluate from a place of strength when you feel good. You’ve got time. The market’s going well. What you don’t want to wait for is you lose your job or the market has a downturn and now you’re scrambling to free up some capital.” So you got to always get back to a base level stability and really looking at your LTV as a whole, especially if you’re borrowing private money or accessing different types of creative financing is crucial for the investors who want to stay in this for the long game.

Amelia:
One thing that we talk about often in Wire is return on equity. And so we evaluate that often, which is basically your cash flow divided by the equity that you have in the property. And if you’re sitting at a one to 4% return on equity, your money is not working as hard as

Henry:
It

Amelia:
Could be for you. And you need to be looking at either refinancing that property, selling it, doing something with it so that you can take that money and put it elsewhere so that you’re making a great return on it. And Grace and I, we are pruning our portfolios right now. We are in that stabilization kind of mode where we’re taking a great look at our portfolios and figuring out, okay, what really worked well for us? What can we get rid of? What can we refinance? And how can we make our money work really hard for us?

Grace:
And sometimes the property has made its money. It’s done its job. It did well well, but it’s time to get out of that property. I’m selling a fourplex literally today that I never thought I would sell, but I had to really evaluate it using my bookkeeping and my numbers and understanding my time and effort and energy and know that this got me from A to B, but it’s not going to get me from this phase to the next phase that I want to be at. It’s not going to give me the peace of mind that I really want it to. And so really understanding that it’s okay to sell. Sometimes a property has done what it needs to do, and maybe you need to go get ROE elsewhere, or maybe you need to add some cash to your reserves or just decrease your workload. That’s okay.
Real estate’s two steps forward, one step back, as is everything in life.

Dave:
There’s a lot of bad real estate advice, but some of the worst real estate advice out there is when people are like, “Buy and never sell.” Why would you do that? That’s just a stupid thing to say. If you have a deal and you could get a better deal elsewhere, why wouldn’t you sell and then just reallocate your capital elsewhere? It just makes so much more sense. I think holding on no matter what through thick and thin is bad advice. Even though we earlier in this episode just said, “Just hold on. All you have to do is hold on. ”

Grace:
There’s a fine

Dave:
Line. In real estate, it is a fine line. I think the thing that Grace said that really is the important thing is she’s making decisions based on math and ROE and information and not on fear. You’re not selling because the market dipped 2%. You’re not selling because you get fearful. It’s because, “Hey, I have this money and I could be doing something better with it. I’m not running from something. I am running to something else that’s going to be a better use of my time and money.”

Amelia:
Well, Dave, I’m really glad that you said that you think that’s terrible advice because number five on our list, you’ll be very happy about this, is that you won’t hold all of your rentals forever. And it took us a long time to realize that because we had also heard the really crappy advice of you buy and then you never ever sell. And so that was a really hard learning to get out of our heads and to shift our mindset of, okay, not every property is going to be with us for 30 years. We’re going to have to sell some of these and re-utilize that money elsewhere.

Grace:
It took me at least three years to sell a rental. And honestly, within the last six months to a year, I’ve gotten cutthroat. If you are not performing, you’re gone. You’re gone.

Dave:
Yeah,

Grace:
You’re axed. We are doing some major rearranging because at the end of the day, it’s to get the lifestyle I want, which is ease and stress-free and simplicity. So that’s not the same thing I wanted when I first started. When I first started, I was trying to quit my job. So any way I could make money, I was down to do that deal.

Henry:
The beauty of real estate is it can allow you to live the life that you want, but the only way that works is if you’re evaluating your portfolio along the way and making changes in your portfolio that supports the lifestyle you’re trying to achieve. If you’re trying to achieve a certain lifestyle and keeping a property is hindering you from doing that, you need to get rid of that asset, period.

Dave:
I think the sentiment that a lot of this never sell is probably based around is like, don’t take your money out of the market, don’t stop investing it. I do believe in that. But thankfully in real estate, you have these powerful tools like a 10 31 Exchange where you can sell an asset and just go buy another one without paying taxes on it. That’s an incredible benefit where you could just constantly be optimizing your portfolio. And as you get out of the growth mode and into sort of a later stage of your career, optimization is the name of the game. For me at this point, I don’t put a lot of new capital into real estate. I’m just moving stuff around and optimizing and trying to do better and better. And usually that works. You don’t need to continuously be hustling out there, but you have to be willing to be cutthroat, as Grace said, and to be constantly evaluating new priorities.
I talk about a bit in my book, this concept of benchmarking. The thing I do is I constantly evaluate deals in every market I’m in, even if I’m not really actively looking to buy, because that’s the only way I know if my other deals are performing. Because I could say, “Hey, oh, I thought this deal was doing great. It’s getting a 9% return on equity. I could go buy another deal that’s 11 or 12%. Then I’m going to go do that. ” And I only am able to do that because I’m constantly monitoring the market. It’s not that much work, but as your career grows, that’s kind of what your job becomes is just weighing different investing opportunities against each other instead of just hustling constantly.

Amelia:
This conversation’s actually giving me butterflies a little bit because it’s the fun part of investing in real estate. It is. Yes. Moving money around the money management, the portfolio management. I love that aspect of it. I’m like, “Ooh, how can I get my money just to be a complete workhorse for me and fund all of the amazing trips that I get to go on and all the fun things that I get to do? ” You know who never gets to do that though? The people who never get started. I think that is the biggest thing. And we talk to so many people who are like, “I really want to invest in real estate.” And it’s like, yeah, you’ve been talking about it for five to six years. I mean, buy something already. It’s just a house. It’s just a house.

Dave:
I love that.

Henry:
I laugh because I say that all the time. Again, people get mad at me when I say it, but- I

Amelia:
Know people get mad at me a lot too, but you know what?

Henry:
It’s a single family home. No one’s going to die. I know. If it’s a decent market and that deal’s semi-decent and you’ve got cash reserves, buy the house, you’ll be fine.

Amelia:
Right. And if you hate it and it’s a dud and it’s a total turd and you lose a little bit of money on it and you decide you hate real estate investing, that’s okay too. You can stop saying, “I want to be a real estate investor now.” You can scratch that itch. You can say, “That wasn’t for me. I hated that. I’m going to go do something else with my time.”

Grace:
As Amelia would say, sure, get off the pot.

Dave:
Amen. Yes, exactly.

Amelia:
Okay. And bonus number six that we want to share really

Dave:
Quickly is- Oh, free advice here.

Amelia:
Community is everything. Grace and I have been able to scale because we had each other and because we created the Wire community, which is for women investors. So we were getting input from multiple different sources. We were not investing in a silo. I think it’s really hard to continue scaling and to get through hard times in your portfolio. If you don’t have anyone to talk to about it, you don’t have anyone to bounce ideas off of. And there’s so many communities out there now, you should not be doing real estate investing alone.

Grace:
You can think of it like leveraging other people’s knowledge. We’re used to leveraging capital and real estate. Why do you think that you have to do it yourself and reinvent the wheel when you can just go be a part of a community or listen to other people’s experiences and learn them through their own actions and mistakes so that you don’t have to make them yourself? And like we talked about, real estate’s two step forward, one step back, and you don’t have somebody to dig you out of that hole when you start spiraling of like, “Oh, I’m going to sell it all. I’m going to sell it all. ” Somebody to be like, “No, you’re fine. It’s just a bad day or a bad week.” That could really be detrimental to the progress of your portfolio.

Henry:
I don’t think enough people talk about the ups and the downs of real estate. I think it’s amazing that real estate has amazing upside. You can make a lot of money, you can build a lot of equity, you can build a lot of wealth, but there are so many downs in between the ups and they can truly weigh on you. And so having a like- minded investor that you can bounce things off of can really bring you back down to reality and help you realize that, “Hey, this is just the nature of the business and you’re going to be fine.” But B, the amount of times that I have talked to another investor about a problem I was having or maybe not even a problem, just hearing them talk about their business and realize that that’s a solution that I could implement today and it would save me so much of a headache.
We just get tunnel vision sometimes when we’re just dealing in our own problems, dealing in our own portfolios. And then you hear somebody else talk about how they handle a similar problem and you go, “I have no idea why. I didn’t even think about doing that. ” But that fresh perspective from a like- minded investor can really, really save you money, make you money, and just help you stay mentally strong.

Amelia:
Yeah. Grace and I probably joke on a weekly basis, not weekly, monthly, that we’re selling it all and we’re done with it and we’re on it. Amen. The other one brings us down to earth. And it’s just nice to have somebody to vent to also at the end of the day. But yeah, I think that’s a very undervalued part of investing is surrounding yourself with other people that are doing what you want to do.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, I’m glad you all have found such great community. I think it absolutely is true. This is much more of a people business than people give it credit for. Obviously you guys have communities. We also have a community of three and a half million people at BiggerPockets where you can go and join and join the conversation and get advice for free as well. Henry, Amelia, Grace, thank you guys so much for being here. This was a lot of fun. Amelia Grace, if people want to connect with you, where should they do that?

Grace:
You can find us on Instagram @wire.community with two eyes. I’m on Instagram at grace.investing and Amelia’s AmeliaJoREI.

Dave:
Awesome. Thank you again for being here and thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets Podcast. We’ll see you all next time.

 

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Gen Zers are the new millennials—Americans in their late teens, 20s, and early 30s—who traditionally comprise the largest renter demographic in the country. However, stubbornly high housing costs and supply issues have made the once-seamless transition from renter to owner more complicated, pushing more young Americans to rent longer and making rents harder to afford. This has had a dramatic influence on where Gen Zs live and work.

According to a new report from RentCafe.com, Gen Z has dramatically increased its footprint in the U.S. rental population, from 700,000 five years ago to 4.4 million today. The Wall Street Journal quotes Zillow as saying that 25% of all U.S. renters and 47% of recent renters were Gen Zers, as of May 2025. 

However, they have stepped into a perilous housing market. A recent Redfin survey found that 67% of Gen Z respondents reported struggling to afford their rent or mortgage, compared with just over half of millennials and about 36% of baby boomers. Selling belongings, working side hustles, and moving in with their parents have been Gen Zers’ financial coping mechanisms.

Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in a statement:

“The reality is that with housing costs still historically high, many young Americans are making compromises on location, size, or timing to get their foot in the homeownership door and start building equity. Gen Zers and millennials are making small gains in homeownership because they’re eager to buy, they’re making sacrifices, and because affordability has improved a bit at the margins—not because homes suddenly became affordable. We expect the slow progress to continue this year, with housing costs dipping slightly while wages rise.”

Where Gen Z Rents and What They Look For

Gen Z renters are located anywhere they can find good jobs and rising wages, according to the RentCafe.com report. Gen Zers are not monolithic, nor are the locations they choose to settle, from pricey coastal cities and tech hubs to less expensive, burgeoning, smaller Southern cities.

For those who can afford it, high-design, amenity-rich apartment buildings functioning as self-contained communities are high on the list, reported the Wall Street Journal. For those who can’t afford it, lower monthly rents and short commutes are high on the list of Gen Z priorities, according to the RentCafe.com report, which states that wage growth makes renting a more viable financial option for many Gen Zers, especially those with good jobs in California’s Silicon Valley, where 95% of Gen Zers who live there rent.

“Gen Z prefers renting in pricey markets like New York City and Los Angeles for the flexibility it offers, and many don’t mind smaller apartments if it means living close to everything,” Adina Dragos, RentCafe.com writer and research analyst, wrote in the report. “Social media adds to the appeal as the ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) makes living there feel like an important and shareable life experience.”

Mostly, however, Gen Zers want affordability, good schools, and outdoor activities, which is leading many to the South. Birmingham, Alabama, is ranked as the metro area with the fastest-growing population of younger American renters, increasing by 13 times in just five years. Affordability means that a third of the Gen Z population is able to own here.

According to RentCafe.com data, Huntsville attracts young professionals for similar reasons. Ranking second, however, is a Southern city that has been on most people’s radars for a while: Raleigh, North Carolina, a college town where nine out of 10 Gen Zers rent and which offers a vibrant, well-paying job market.

Remote work, coupled with affordability, appears to be a big draw for snowy Buffalo, New York’s high ranking on the list, while a lack of income tax and cultural attractions puts Nashville in the fourth slot.

The Play for Landlords

For landlords who don’t intend to buy pricy rental properties in San Jose, New York, or Los Angeles, less expensive markets with growing economies in the South and Midwest remain good places to invest, given their long-term renter demographics. A September survey by multifamily-focused property management company Entrata found that three-quarters of Gen Zers plan to continue renting long into the future, unwilling to be shackled to a mortgage.

“What the survey told us about Gen Z is that renting is a great way of life for them,” Entrata’s industry expert, Virginia Love, told Newsweek. “While homeownership is something they want at some point in life, they are sort of rewriting their timeline. They don’t feel like they need to follow the whole ‘college, marriage, baby, house, bigger house’ timeline; they can create whatever life they want.”

Employment challenges also keep younger Americans away from homeownership. 

“We are seeing less people in that 20-to-24 age group categorized as fully employed,” Jimmie Lenz, a financial economics professor at Duke University, told Newsweek. “There’s a lot more people that are employed by gig work and things like that, and those are jobs that tend to make it a little more difficult to afford mortgages, and in particular, the kind of traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.”

Playing It Safe: Investing in Areas Where Gen Z Renters May Want to Buy

It’s unreasonable to expect Gen Z renters to want to rent forever, even if that’s what they might say now. Parenthood, increased earnings, and a desire to step away from the risk of escalating rents mean that, at some point, homeownership might be on their wish list. Thus, investing in markets with both a high percentage of Gen Z renters and affordable housing is a sensible move.

According to Cotality, unsurprisingly, Gen Z mortgage loan applications (the data was collected in 2024) were heaviest in less expensive Midwest markets such as: 

  • Des Moines, Iowa (21%)
  • Omaha, Nebraska (21%)
  • Youngstown, Ohio (20%)
  • Dayton, Ohio (20%)
  • Grand Rapids, Michigan (20%)

Other Southern markets that made the top 10 rental markets for Gen Z also made the top mortgage application list, such as Birmingham, Alabama (19%), and Jackson, Mississippi (19%).

Cross-referencing both sets of data will give prospective landlords a good indication of stable future rental markets.

Final Thoughts

In Apartment List’s 2026 State of Renting Report, one thing becomes evident: Gen Z is chronically challenged financially, and that is affecting every major life decision, including where they live. However, 87% of those surveyed said buying a home remained a major life goal.

For investors, this means renting to Gen Z tenants who work and may one day want to live in a particular location makes sense, as does offering different options, such as holding the note on a property for a more passive rental experience. Offering the option to rent along with the option to buy, or simply tying the tenant to a long-term lease with predictable, affordable rental increases, provides both the landlord and tenant with peace of mind through a long-term solution.



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Does the idea of a never-ending stream of potential renters, many of them with guaranteed payments, lining up to apply for your vacant apartments sound appealing? Then you might want to consider renting to lower-income tenants.

Before you rush to judgment, it’s worth taking a broad look at the current rental market. America’s affordable rental crunch means that the biggest segment of the population that needs housing is the one that can least afford it. For landlords willing to serve this growing demographic, a golden opportunity awaits—as long as it is approached correctly.

A National Shortage That Isn’t Going Away

If real estate is about supply and demand, there is an almost bottomless demand at the lower financial end of the market. The United States is short about 7.2 million affordable rental homes for extremely low renters, defined as those at or below the poverty line or 30% of the area median income, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition’s (NLIHC) “The Gap” report. That translates to only 35 affordable and available units for every 100 extremely low-income renter households nationwide.

The report shows that roughly 11 million households fall into this category, with some states having more than others. However, as Renee Willis, president and CEO of the NLIHC, said in the report, “The findings from ‘The Gap’ show that no state or major metropolitan area has an adequate supply of affordable and available homes for extremely low-income renters.” She added that only about one in four households that need assistance actually receive it.

Western and Sunbelt States Are the Most Affordable Housing-Challenged

According to a Newsweek map based on NLIHC data, Western and Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas rank among the most challenged. The report shows that seniors, those with low-wage jobs, and people with disabilities are often forced to compete with higher-income tenants for modest-priced rentals.

Focusing on Texas, a recent report from the Texas Tribune finds that Dallas—often celebrated for its burgeoning jobs and middle-class population—was short about 46,000 rental homes for families making 50% of the area’s median income as of 2023.

“We have a serious shortage of affordable rental units for very low-income households,” said Ashley Flores, the Dallas-based housing chief for nonprofit Child Poverty Action Lab, who coauthored its new report.

The Problems With Section 8

Although there is a deep need for affordable housing, there is a chronic shortage of tenants approved for Housing Choice Vouchers (Section 8). A New York Times article found that these vouchers are too scarce in major American cities where they are most needed. In Orlando, for example, there are roughly 200,000 rent-burdened households (those paying over 30% of their household income in housing costs) but only 7,401 available Section 8 vouchers.

More recently, the Trump administration proposed imposing a two-year time limit on rental assistance, which could affect as many as 1.4 million households, exempting the elderly and those with disabilities.

Many landlords choose to avoid Section 8 housing altogether because they feel it is too much of an administrative nightmare, requires excessive inspections, involves chasing tenants for their share of the rent, and soaring rents make it easier to get top dollar from regular tenants without the hassle of dealing with the government.

Each county has its own rules for affordable housing, and many have programs beyond Section 8 that can also offer qualified tenants steady, market-rate rents.

How Landlords Can Turn The Affordable Housing Shortage Into Cash Flow

A recent Business Insider story detailed the story of Ted and Jamie Gerber, who own 28 rental units across 15 commercial and residential properties in Florida. “We always rent at or below market rates,” said Ted Gerber. “Our tenants value the fact that they’re renting slightly below market rate, so they’re going to want to take care of the place. They’re getting a deal, and we’re still making money from it all.”

Another investor, Washington-based Dion McNeeley, interviewed for the same article, uses a similar strategy.

“Happy tenants don’t trash the place, and they don’t move, and tenant turnover is one of the most expensive things a landlord has to deal with,” McNeeley said. “I’m making tens of thousands of dollars more in the last few years than I would have if I raised the rent to the area average and then dealt with a bunch of turnover.”

A BiggerPockets article outlined some of the essentials for renting to low-income tenants:

  • Accept it for what it is: Homes in lower-income neighborhoods generally won’t appreciate at the same rates as other areas unless they are hit by a wave of gentrification.
  • Anticipate high potential cash flow, but be realistic: On paper, your cash flow can be extremely high, especially if you are not heavily leveraged, but management-wise, these types of properties can be quite labor-intensive.
  • Work with a responsive management company experienced in this type of rental: Unless you want your passive income plan to turn into a full-time job and have to deal with tenant calls, outsource management to a responsive management company well-versed in this type of rental.
  • Patience is key: Many landlords steer clear of low-income rentals because of the labor-intensive management and the types of tenants they attract. Clearly, beyond meticulous screening, having a thick skin and playing the long game are key. Some years, you might not generate much cash flow due to repairs and turnover, but eventually equity and rents will increase.

Final Thoughts

Stable tenants with stable jobs in stable neighborhoods are an ideal scenario for most landlords. However, due to the U.S. housing crisis, a much larger pool of rentals and tenants lies within the less-glamorous affordable rental segment. 

Having owned multiple low-income units in the past, I can attest that they can be challenging—which is putting it mildly. However, experience has been a great teacher, and these are some of the lessons I’ve learned.

You cannot be too leveraged. 

BRRRRing your way to success with low-income rentals is fraught with risk. Other investors I have known who have succeeded in low-income areas have bought rentals in auctions for cash, used their credit cards to fix them up, paid off the debt, and used the cash flow to service the repairs while keeping a full-time job. Eventually, rents increased, and the areas turned around. It was a conservative long-term strategy.

Screen meticulously.

Landlords are often so desperate to fill units that they will let anyone in, especially if they have a Section 8 voucher. Vouchers or not, comprehensive tenant screening is a must, which is why an experienced outside management company is important.

Older tenants or those with disabilities tend to be more stable. 

I once had a three-unit rental where, unbeknownst to me, all the tenants were drug dealers—even the single mom with a baby. One day, I found out that my building was completely vacant due to a DEA drug bust. Older folks usually know better than that.

Have a slush fund ready for repairs. 

Even with good screening, you will still encounter your fair share of repairs. This is why buying with cash or minimal leverage and having a slush fund and a reliable, affordable contractor are essential. 

One of the biggest dangers with low-income rentals is actually expecting to get the same cash flow in reality as you worked out on paper. Things often go wrong, and making your rental work means having enough cash to cover repairs and absorb vacancies.



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Fear you’ll never invest in real estate because you’ve been dealt a bad hand? Today’s guest had a struggling business, a $70,000 tax lien, a pending divorce, and was on the brink of bankruptcy, but through hard work and persistence, she was able to completely flip her circumstances. Now, she owns a real estate portfolio of cash-flowing rentals, despite starting in her 50s!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Beth Smart is the ultimate real estate success story. Despite juggling a recent divorce and a mountain of debt, all while taking care of two toddlers, she found a way to climb out of the financial hole she was in. And she didn’t slow down once she was back on her feet. From there, Beth figured out how to build real wealth with rental properties—dabbling in everything from short- and medium-term rentals to long-term rentals and even a few messy house flips!

In this episode, Beth talks about the bulletproof mindset that helped her rebuild her life, the exact moment she realized she was an actual real estate investor, and the strategies she used to snowball from one property into the next!

Ashley:
If you’re sitting there thinking you can’t get started in real estate because life’s too hard or you have this going on or you can’t do it, today’s story is with Beth and she’s going to provide you the motivation and inspiration to know that you can do it. At one point in time, Beth was going through divorce, had a struggling failing business, had $70,000 in IRS debt and on the verge of bankruptcy, but she made it out and she ended up getting her first real estate deal.

Tony:
And in today’s episode, Beth is giving us not only how she got out of that very precarious and difficult situation, but how she built a cashflowing real estate portfolio that includes flipping, long-term rentals, mid-term rentals and short-term rentals all in the span of a few years. So if you want the tactical guide along with the motivation, then this episode.

Ashley:
This is The Real Estate Rookie Podcast, and I’m Ashley Kehr.

Tony:
And I’m Tony J. Robinson. And with that, let’s give me a big, warm welcome to Beth Smart. Beth, thank you so much for joining us on the podcast today.

Beth:
Thank you. Glad to be here.

Ashley:
Beth, you were a new single mom. A business had just ended up in your name and you were dealing with a federal tax lien. So the margin for mistakes was basically zero. What was the first domino that fell? What happened that turned your life from manageable to I’m in survival mode and how quickly did things spiral for you?

Beth:
Well, so first I’m going to start by saying it’s so hard to talk about my past because it was such a painful time. And that was about 20 years ago. So that’s the timeline. So I’ve come a long way in that 20 years, so I’m happy about that. But at that time I had a new business. I had a nine-month-old and I had a two-year-old, and I was realizing that I had a horrible marriage. So it was just one thing after another. I had also had a bankruptcy, and that was kind of the first flag that told me, “This is not a good marriage,” because it just was all part of that bad marriage thing. So I had a bankruptcy that I kind of went through by myself. And then I was getting letters from the IRS saying, “You need to be audited.” And my husband at the time had said, “Just ignore that.
” Well, when you ignore the IRS, they do not like that. And so I did get a tax lien.

Tony:
That’s like one of the people that you can’t ignore is the federal government, I think when they asked for-

Beth:
Yeah. Well, I know that now, so thanks. Yeah. Well, and I don’t know.

Ashley:
But you trust someone and you trust them to know what to do.

Beth:
That’s right. And I was trusting him that he was going to give a good advice because when people talk with authority and I don’t know, for me it was like I’ve learned now not to just trust anybody because they act like they know what they’re doing because that’s not always the case. That’s actually probably rarely the case. So I’m not sure if I’m answering your question, Ashley, but there was a lot of dominoes that just kind of fell over all at once. So I had a new business that I really didn’t know anything about. I had started a med spa with my husband at the time and he was working for a laser company. So that’s how we got into that industry. And then with this new little baby and a two-year-old and this new business, and then I’m like, “Oh my God, I have a terrible marriage.
I need to get out of it. ” And oh, I have a bankruptcy and oh, I have a tax lane and everything has to start over. So it was like a clean slate and that’s what happened.

Ashley:
What was the moment like when you realized that you couldn’t live like that anymore, that you had to figure something out once you found out about all this stuff going on, what were kind of the first steps that you took to make some changes?

Beth:
So the last straw was, and I’m laughing because it was like, what a stupid last straw. So we had bought a house during that whole subprime lending thing. So I knew that that was going to be a horrible thing when that seven-year note came due or whatever. And I was cleaning our three-car garage because it was just a mess. And I’m a person of order and everything has a little place. And I had spent the whole day after working at the business and raising these two little kids by myself because he was traveling. I organized the garage because I thought this is going to be nice when he comes home from traveling. And he came home and trashed the garage. And I was up that night and I saw the garage and I burst into tears and I’m like, “I can’t do this anymore.” It was just everything else.
I mean, we were in debt, we just had nothing to our names. And my husband, he wasn’t home a lot because he was traveling for this business. And that was my last straw, was the dirty garage.

Tony:
Beth, I applaud you for having the courage to recognize that you weren’t happy in the situation and kind of stepping out of it, but then that also kind of puts you, like you said, in a very unique situation where now you’re newly single, two young kids. And I guess walk us through what happens with the business. You said you started this business together, but it seems like you became the person really running it after the fact. How did that come to be? How did the business fall into your lap?

Beth:
Well, we had signed a lease in a mall and we had to be open seven days a week, which was working when he had quit his job and we were supposed to be working together, but he was not working. And so when the divorce was processed and he moved out, I had to be at the office every day, even though we didn’t have any clients, even though there was no money coming in, but we had about $15,000 in monthly expenses that I’m like, “Somehow this has to … I have to pay these bills.” And somehow people would come in and spend money and buy my laser services when I needed them too. And it was the first time that I really realized I’m going to be okay that there, even though I don’t have support and I don’t have the people around me and I don’t have a rich uncle to help me, somehow miraculously people would just come in and buy things and I’m like, I’m going to … I started to notice that I got all the junk out of my life and I was cleaning up my messes and I don’t know, the universe just started to help me.
And so it was during that, it was 2007 and 2008, which was another weird period. And people were just, they would come in and spend, they’d give me their credit card and they would charge $7,000. And I needed, how much did I need that day? I needed $7,000. And they would just come in and charge. And I’m like, “This is weird.” And then I would sometimes never see them again. So I had to handle everything from the finding a tax accountant and paying bills because I knew that paying taxes was really important. I’d learned that and I just had to pay the bills. Then I asked the leasing company with the mall if I could just be open six days a week. And they said, “It’s actually, we never do this, but it’s in your lease that you don’t have to be open seven days a week.” So that helped a lot.
Yeah,

Tony:
That’s of course. And I mean, again, I think a lot to put on one person’s shoulders, but when everything was kind of chaotic, you mentioned the federal tax lien, you mentioned bankruptcy, a lot of the options were off the table for you to try and get stable. So what did you kind of tackle first, second, third to start putting the pieces back together and rebuild your own personal financial foundation?

Beth:
I went through all our expenses for the business and I had an employee who was a … Just she advocated for me. I don’t even remember who she was, but she came in and she was helping me run the business and she called up the Yellow Pages because we had a monthly charge of like, I don’t know, $5,000 or something for Yellow Pages. And this is when back in the day people actually advertised in the Yellow Pages, but that was going out because this was all pre-Google and all that. And so she got rid of that Google or that Yellow Page ad for me. So that helped a lot. So things like that. So it was just minimizing my expenses and then just praying every day, “Okay, I need to make $3,000 today. Okay, I need to make $100 a day. I need to find a cheaper place to live that’s just as safe, that is more convenient and closer to work.” So I’m juggling a million things and it was just like, “Oh, I’ll do that one today.
I’ll do that one today.” So that was my modus apperandi, is just deal with it.

Tony:
How long after the divorce and you becoming the sole owner of the business do you feel like it took for you to get to a point where you could kind of breathe again?

Beth:
Well, I think it probably took about two years of just one day at a time, one hour at a time and making it. And okay, I have a little cushion of money in the account. I have this bill paid off, this bill’s about to be paid off. So I think it took about two years. And I remember when I felt like I was safe and I was secure and I was going to make it, and I had a friend come into the store and she’s like, “I’m going away to Estes Park. I’m in Colorado.” She said, “I’m going to go away for the weekend. Do you want to get a cabin and bring the kids and go with us?” And I thought, I looked at the numbers and I’m like, “I can afford to do that. I can afford to pay someone to be in my store.
I can afford to go rent this little cabin and enjoy myself.” But it was two years after the drama. So what would that have been, 2010? Yeah.

Ashley:
Beth, during this time, did you create any rules for yourself that maybe you’re not going to base your decisions on fear anymore or that you’re not going to worry that your kids can’t depend on you? Was there anything that kind of went through your mind that you realized from this point and this experience that you weren’t going to let that control you anymore?

Beth:
I know during that period, my rule was I wasn’t going to fail. I wasn’t going to end up homeless. I wasn’t going to end up living in my car. I wasn’t going to lose my kids. I had a fear I was going to go to jail because of this tax lien. And my biggest, biggest fear was that I knew my ex- husband wouldn’t bring my kids to visit me. So when you’re operating in that level of fear, it’s like nothing is scarier. So the rules I created where I was never going to be in that situation again, but that also I needed to learn to trust my gut that if somebody comes in and tries to sell me something and I think it’s a stupid idea, then I’m going to learn how to say no, because I didn’t really know how to say no. I didn’t know how to advocate for myself.
And so I mean, it was like basic core rules that I was creating of don’t give away your soul.

Ashley:
Beth, how much was the tax lien for?

Beth:
Well, I think I owed $10,000, but because I had ignored him the interest, I think it was $70,000, which when you’re not making any money, it could be $70 million. It was just a lot of money.

Ashley:
I mean, that could be with someone’s whole year’s salary, $70,000. Yeah. And especially when it was only 10,000 knowing that it could have been taken care of, but yet all the penalties and interest. Wow.

Beth:
Yep.

Ashley:
Next, Beth is going to walk us through the exact pivot that made real estate feel possible and the boring insurance call that later protected a $60,000 outcome. That’s coming up right after a quick word from today’s show sponsors. Okay. Welcome back. So Beth had rules, but real estate investing starts when reality tests them. So Beth, walk us through the exact moment you’ve stopped insisting on a cool market and chose a market that actually worked for you. Okay.

Beth:
So we’re going to flash forward about seven years and my medical spa is doing really well. My divorce is completely over and I have met a great man named Patrick. I’m going to refer to Patrick a lot.

Tony:
I love that this story has a happy, not even the ending, but a happy middle part. Yeah,

Ashley:
Happy transition.

Beth:
There’s a good transition and that’s what changed everything. So I’ve gotten out of the mall, they let me out of my lease, which also never happens. And then I rented office space in an office building and I could be open whenever I felt like it. And I met this man online, whatever those things are called, online program. And we were destined for each other. It was just a great fit. And he was an executive chef. So I had manifested a cook into the family. Thank you because my … I don’t know. Anyway, that was a good thing. That was a good big sign. And he ended up after a couple of years quitting his job as a chef and he came to work for me. So we were working together and we were working and that’s when, and he had a little kid and I had little kids and they were … Well, now they were seven, eight and nine by then.
And we were just having fun. And I had a family and I’ve never really had a happy family. So we enjoyed a few years of having a happy family. One of the things that Patrick had was a little cabin in the mountains, and it was a little like a double wide mobile home that the previous owners had built a deck on. And it was just in a beautiful spot with Aspen Trees. And you could see all the Rocky Mountains and all the mountains, I mean, all around. And it was just such a peaceful retreat. We spent a lot of time there. We had a blast up there. And yeah, Ashley, I forgot your question. What was your question?

Ashley:
So go into how you had started in real estate.

Beth:
Oh, thank you. That’s a great question. Oh, yeah. How interesting that we’re on that this podcast and we’re going to talk about real estate. So we didn’t realize we were in real estate at that time, but we loved this. We loved the cabin and we thought other people should enjoy it. And this is when Airbnb was just starting. And I’m like, “You know what? We probably could make some money.” I think somebody would come to this … I mean, it was very rural. It was very rustic. It had running water, a bathroom and a shower and even a laundry room. And so we put it on Airbnb and we got somebody who spent a week up there and they loved it. And I realized we just owned this free and clear, but we didn’t even have insurance on it. And I thought if we’re going to keep renting on our Airbnb, we better get basic insurance on it in case something happens.
So we got a policy, we paid one premium, and I think it was like $30 a month. There was nothing. And we paid monthly. And like I said, we went there all the time. We were there at least every other weekend. And I always wanted to … I’m sorry I have to use my hands, but I always wanted to … It was just a mobile home, but I always wanted to pop the top so that you would have an even better view of all the mountains. And we went up one weekend. It was Halloween weekend and there had been an explosion and the top had popped. So I guess our introduction into true real estate began with the bang because insurance came up three times to inspect our claim and found that we hadn’t committed any crime to fraud. And we ended up getting … I think our claim was for $60,000.
So we got the full amount.

Ashley:
I want to make sure there’s no one in this, right? It happened to be vacant.

Beth:
Yeah. Yeah. Nobody was hurt, but one of the bedrooms, the bed had melted. So something horrible had happened, but I’d made one insurance premium or payment. And I mean, I was crying. We both were just in shock that it’s like somebody popped the top and melted the windows and broke everything. And anyway, yeah, it was so sad. It was awful.

Tony:
Beth, I know that the insurance situation was obviously terrible because obviously we never want that to happen to our properties, but it also becomes this kind of moment where you really do launch into real estate investing. And I want to talk about that, but before we do, you said, “Hey, we’re going to fast forward about seven years or so. ” And you go from this very difficult situation, post-divorce, newly single, businesses struggling, to happily married, family’s there, business is doing well. How does someone separate the difficulties of a moment from their identity? Because at times someone who’s going through something difficult can start to internalize that situation as part of who they are. And the reason that I asked this is because I was just talking to an investor last week and we were having a conversation. She was almost in tears because she had this property that wasn’t performing well.
And she was like, “I just feel like I’m a failure.” And I know that there are other people out there who have gone through similar situations, whether in their personal life, their business, whatever it may be, who start to internalize these difficult situations as part of who they are and they start to question their ability to be successful at anything. How did you not fall victim to that?

Beth:
Well, I don’t know that I didn’t fall victim for that. When you’re a self-made woman or a self-made human being, I mean, when you try something, whether you do it intentionally like, “I’m going to go try doing this, ” or you just have to fall into it and make it work. When it’s not working, you do have to take a look at yourself and say, “This is not working.” And there’s something that I’m not good at. And so some people don’t do that self-analysis and go, “Okay, what can I learn? I need to learn. I need to ask somebody. I need to read a book. I need to now, today. We didn’t do this back then. Listen to a podcast or whatever.” So I think people who fall victim to, “Oh, I’m a failure,” it’s because they’re not looking to learn and they’re not looking for what else?
There’s something I don’t know. I better figure it out. So at least that’s what I did. It’s like, this is not who I want to be. I want to be a different kind of person. I want to be a success. I want to be somebody who has achieved things. And I didn’t know how to do that. I didn’t have anybody showing me how to do that when I was growing up. So it’s like, all right, I’m going to listen to the people that, the science of getting rich, the science of personal achievement, the secret. I mean, there’s what you think about, you bring about, that’s something that I learned during my whole divorce is that book movie came out the secret. It’s all about the law of attraction. I didn’t know anything about that, but it’s true. What you think about, you do

Tony:
Bring about. Yeah. Well, Beth, I appreciate that because again, I know there are a lot of folks who are listening that just don’t have the confidence to move forward. And I feel like that’s what stops a lot of people more than the technical know- how, more than the … They’ve read all the books, listened to the podcast, watched YouTube videos, but they’re just missing the confidence piece. So I think it’s always important when we can talk to someone who’s gone through the kind of peaks and valleys of life and business and can show that Sick and With it has a positive impact. But going back to the insurance story, so you guys, obviously the terrible thing happens, but then you get this big check from your insurance company. What do you guys do with that? Do you rebuild the cabin? Do you turn it into another short-term rental?
What happens next?

Beth:
Well, we did love that location, but it was really far from anything. And our kids were getting older and we thought, “This is just too far from anything, so let’s find something else. Let’s take this money.” I think we paid off a car, but we still had a bunch of money. Plus we sold the land for, I think, another 40,000. So that was like 100,000. Today, I would do it so different, but back then we’re like, let’s go find another kind of retreat center. That’s how we looked at it was a retreat. And so we found a realtor and we’re just driving around, looking on the MLS and found this house in Cripple Creek, Colorado, which is this old gambling town and found this house one block from the casinos that it was in the middle of this little town. So of course in hindsight, it’s not at all what we were looking for, but it’s exactly what we needed.
It’s this 1895 Victorian. It was painted purple and blue and it’s just so cute. It just was so cute. And so it was in December and when we went to inspect it, the water wasn’t even on and we’re like, “It doesn’t matter. We’re going to buy it. ” We just knew in our hearts that this was our house. So we took that money from our explosion, our bang, and we bought this house and we went out and furnished it with period pieces. We’d walk into a thrift store and it’s like, that’s the perfect couch, which I don’t really recommend buying account furniture from thrift stores, but it was like, that’s the perfect furniture. So I think we got it furnished within a week and we spent New Year’s Eve there.

Ashley:
Did you have to do any repairs at all?

Beth:
No, no. Well, once the water got turned on, there was a leak and we had that fixed, but that was it. Otherwise, it was perfect. It had a detected garage with a studio above and we’re like, “We can rent that out. This’ll be fun. It’ll be so much … It’ll be lovely.” And so we were there New Year’s Eve, I remember, and we were staying there and I’m like, “Wait a minute, we have a mortgage on this now. Wait, this isn’t relaxing. We have a mortgage on it, so we’re going to have to do something about this. ” And so that’s what we did with that money. We bought really, truly, our first investment property.

Ashley:
And how much did you purchase it for?

Beth:
Oh gosh, I think it was maybe 200,000. It wasn’t very much, but this was probably eight years ago. So now it’s worth more, thank goodness. But we still have it actually.

Ashley:
Oh, really? That’s awesome.

Beth:
We rented that summer. We put it on short-term rental because I was such an Airbnb expert by then with our cabin and that one tenant that we had, but we put on … And it is a block from the casinos. So that was people would come up for the weekend and they loved it and it was convenient and it was adorable and all the things that we loved about it, other people loved about it. Well, then fall came and nobody really goes to Cripple Creek for the weekend because it’s cold and snowy and it’s not that much fun. So then, okay, we got to get a tenant in here. So we found a property manager and she got it rented. It probably took a couple of months, but so we had long-term rentals in there, long-term tenants there for, I don’t know, two years. And that’s when we started really learning about real estate.
And we’re like, if we converted the garage to another unit, then we could have a duplex. So we actually now have a duplex. We converted that to a duplex. So that’s a nice cash flowing property. Yeah.

Tony:
$200,000 for three units is pretty solid. So you guys take that money, you use that to launch into your first true real estate investment, but you don’t stop there, Beth. I know you go on to start experimenting in all different types of real estate investing. So what was the next deal after this? And my mind is blown when you said 18.95. I don’t even think I’ve been inside a house that was built before.

Ashley:
Come visit me, Tony, and a lot of them.

Beth:
Right? Yeah.

Tony:
Said 1895. What came next?

Beth:
Well, we didn’t really realize we were investors. We were just getting the mortgage paid. And then COVID hit and our business, we still had our medical spa and it got shut down. And my husband had always wanted to be a real estate agent because he loves looking at real estate. He doesn’t like helping people buy real estate or sell real estate. He just likes to look at real estate. And so during COVID, he got his real estate license and I’m like, all right, I’m going to be a part of his life and help him with that. And so I found this Facebook page and this woman was teaching how to be a real estate investor. And so every night, it was a fine night program. We listened to that and we learned all of the real estate techniques, the Burr method and flipping and house hacking and wholesaling.
And our minds were blown. We’re like, “We could totally do this. ” So that’s like giving a little kid a dollar back in the day and go into the candy store. So that’s how my husband was. He’s like, “Now we’re going to go buy real estate.” So we knew Denver, which is where we’re at, the Denver metro area was too expensive. And so Pat was looking in Pueblo, Colorado, which is two hours south of Denver. And I grew up in Colorado Springs, Colorado, which Pueblo, it was like the armpit of the world. It’s just the nastiest place in the world. And so when he’s like, “Look at all these properties without Pueblo.” I’m like, “We’re not buying En Pueblo. It’s disgusting there.” And he’s like, “No, no, really, really. Look at how cheap the properties were.” And they were. I mean, at that time Denver, the average price was $600,000 just off the MLS.
And in Pueblo, it was $150,000 for the same kind of cute little house. And I’m like, “Yeah, but it’s Pueblo. So no, gross.” Well, at that time also there was this TV show on Netflix called Undercover Billionaire and Grant Cordon got sent to Pueblo of all the places in the world and he’s like, “This is the greatest town in the world.” And I’m like, “I don’t even know who Grant Cordon is, but okay, if that guy says that it’s a good place, we should go check it out. ” So again, on a New Year’s Eve, we went, that was when we do everything apparently. So we went down to Pueblo and state New Year’s Eve and we looked around this town and Pueblo, Colorado is the cutest little town in the world. It has a city park and a zoo and old little Victorian homes.
And I mean, there’s some yucky places, but there’s a lot of history. There’s a big reservoir. So I’m like, all right, let’s go buy, let’s look down here. So we ended up finding … So we found out about how to get on wholesalers lists. And so we, I’ll make this very short, we found a property and we went and walked through it. And during that time, it was so chaotic. It was like you could walk into a house, and this is what one of the realtors said that we met at the flipping house or at the house that we were looking at. He’s like, “You could have dog poop on the walls and you’re going to get three offers above asking.” And I’m like, “What?” That doesn’t even make any sense, but it was true. So we toured a house, we put a bid in and we got it.
We got this house that we were going to flip. It was below market. I didn’t understand why they were using a wholesaler because it was a great house. They should have just put it on the MLS. But I know that’s one of those mysteries in real estate, right? It’s like, why did they do it that way? I don’t know. But anyway, it was to our advantage. So yeah.

Tony:
I just want to ask because obviously you’re still in Colorado, but it is a new market for you. And you mentioned it briefly, but you said we got it on the list of a wholesaler. There are a lot of rookie investors who don’t understand how to start building those connections with wholesalers who have the keys to unlock all of the deals that tend to make a little bit more sense. So what did you actually do to get in contact with these wholesalers in a market that you didn’t actually live in?

Beth:
I think probably at that time, my husband went on Craigslist and said, “I want to buy wholesale properties.” And there were just people there where they’re like, “Hey, want to buy this below cost.” Now you can Google buy wholesale properties and they’ll find all these companies and that’s what they do. And they go out and they door knock and they get these properties under contract for below cost. That’s a whole world that I’m not interested in. I would never want to be a wholesaler. It sounds on paper like it would be fun. You just go help somebody get out of their house they’re going to lose and you help them pay off their whatever, but I just didn’t want to do that. Yeah. Right. And so anyway, so we just bought another flip just recently and I’m like, why is this property being sold to a wholesaler?
They could just sell it anyway. I’m sorry, I’m rambling. I ramble.

Ashley:
Tony, didn’t you wholesale deal for a little while?

Tony:
Yeah, we did back in 2021, I think it was. And yeah, I mean, a lot of it was us getting cussed out by home sellers saying that we were the 18th person to call them today and how did you beep this and you should beep this and all these other kind of crazy things, but we dig it if you do, which is I guess the price you have to pay.

Ashley:
Now, when you saw your $65,000 profit, what did you do next and why did you choose to roll it into two more properties instead of just taking the win and pocketing it?

Beth:
So that was how much we made from our very first flip. It took us about, I think a month, maybe six weeks, and we fixed everything, which now we don’t do that. But even then we turned around and we sold it in two days. We actually only got one offer.

Ashley:
Two days. Wow.

Beth:
Yeah. And we made a profit of, if I did the numbers right, which who knows if I did, but we made about $65,000. So what we found is that it was so much fun. And real estate in general is just fun. And it was fun taking this kind of house that just needed some love and making it, improving it and giving more life to it and then turning around and finding somebody who’s like, “This is my forever house. I love it. I want to buy Buy it. And then we made money at it. I mean, it was fun. So we took that $65,000 and instead of spending it on something that we didn’t want, we’re like, let’s keep going and let’s stay in Pueblo. And so my husband, who loves looking at real estate, found a house that was, it had it for sale sign in the front, but it was not on the MLS.
And he called up the agent and he’s like, “Yeah, that’s for sale.” Well, it’s not on the MLS. Oh, well, I don’t know. So we looked at that and the price was right. It was like $160, $70,000. It didn’t need any work. And it needed a little cleaning and some paint, but it had hardwood floors. The bathroom was fine. It had clawfoot tub in it. And we had a contractor who had helped us on our flip. And he’s like, “You should do this as a short-term rental and we’ll manage it for you. ” And so we’re like, “Okay, because it’s two hours away and we can’t do a short-term rental, but we know how much money those can make. So let’s turn this into a short-term rental.” So we bought that house in June, middle of June, and I immediately got it set up on Airbnb and we had it booked for the 4th of July.
So it took us two weeks to turn that around. And we had it booked for, I think, four straight months and made, I mean, so much money. It just was fun. It was fun because people loved it. And then I love helping people, but I also love making money. And I learned from my med spa, those two things are not mutually exclusive. You can have fun, you can help people, and you can do what you’re supposed to do. So that’s what we were doing. The other thing that we did with that $65,000 profit is actually, we bought two properties down in Pueblo. One, we turned into a short-term rental. We actually closed on both those properties on the same day, and we were going to just flip that other property, but we ended up losing our contractor because he got really burned out because we were moving at the speed of light, and he was managing these properties and having to turn them over every couple of days.
And then the one kind of challenge about Pueblo, Colorado is August is super hot. And so that’s by now we’re into August and he got burned out and he quit managing the short-term rental and he quit finishing our flip.

Tony:
I just want to say that’s the biggest fear for every real estate investor is that you build a relationship with someone and then for whatever reason, they don’t follow through. They kind of stop mid-job because now you as the investor are left to pick up the pieces. And I want to talk about that, but before we finish off the serve at the contractor, we’re going to take a quick break to your road from today’s show sponsors and we’ll come back and finish that story. All right, welcome back. We are here with Beth and she just broke the news that her contractor kind of burned out in the middle of not one, but multiple jobs. So I guess Beth, maybe describe the moment that the relationship kind of broke, I guess, what went wrong, what did it put at risk and what did you do in those first 24 to 48 hours to try and keep things moving along?

Beth:
I remember where Pat and I were both standing, we were supposed to go to dinner with our contractor and his wife, and we had made plans to go to this little Mexican restaurant and they called and said, “Oh, we can’t go. We have to go do something else.” And we knew what that meant. We knew that they were quitting because of other things that had happened. And we both just looked at each other and said, “What just happened and what does this mean? Because they’re doing this and they’re doing this and they’re doing this. And oh my God, what are we going to do? ” And so sure enough, they’re like, “We’re not doing this anymore and give us our money that you owe us and here’s the keys and good luck.” So we went on Craigslist, my husband’s really good at that and he found another person to finish this house, finish the house that we were flipping.
And we shut down, I think we probably had a couple more short-term rental appointments or bookings that we finished. And I found a cleaning lady who would go in and she moved those around for a couple months, but it was just too much work. So I’m like, let’s turn that house into a medium-term rental. And to answer your question, Tony, sorry, you have to deal with it and it’s like all hands on deck and what are we going to do? And you have to focus on solving the problems. So okay, we got to finish the house. All right, find somebody to finish the house. We got to find somebody to clean the house because we can’t do it and turn it over because we have bookings. You just have to find somebody. And when you have that laser focus on finding what it is you need, because it’s not like it’s life and death, but it kind of is because it’s your business.
It’s like the universe really does conspire to help you and you find those people show up. And so the contractor that we found to finish the flip, he did a really good job, but he moved at the speed of a sloth. He was so slow. So it should have taken about a month. It took him like three months. And so it was done in November. Well, then it’s too late to try to sell it. It’s in Colorado at least. You just can’t sell anything in that fourth quarter. So we ended up turning that property. We put that on the market to … No, what did we do? We turned that into a long-term rental, which wasn’t the goal. That wasn’t what we were going to do with that money. I wanted that cash so we could buy another flip, but we turned it into a long-term rental.
We actually still have that property and we’re on just our second tenant in, what is it, four years. So that turned out, it turned out okay. The house that we had is a short-term rental, we turned that into a midterm rental, and that went really well for a couple of years also. And that was nice money and pretty easy money. And that cleaning lady that I had found, she would go in after the month or however long that contract was, she would go in and turn that over. And then we just had a couple of bad experiences and I’m like, “Let’s just turn this into a long-term rental.” So we still have that property also, and that’s been a very nice investment for us. It’s still booked. So yeah.

Ashley:
Beth, after having to learn how to pivot and change strategies, what are maybe some things you implement now when you’re managing a project or a rental that you wish you would’ve done before?

Beth:
So the way we funded a lot of these projects was through my medical spa. So we don’t have that medical spa anymore. I sold that and now my husband and I both have W2 jobs. Why? I don’t know, but we do. And so what I wish I could- for lending, but you get loans. Yeah, exactly. And it is, it’s nice to have insurance and whatever. But I wish that I had been wiser with the budget and the money and really everything I’ve learned on BiggerPockets about how to analyze a deal. We would analyze a deal by going in and going, “What a cute house. Oh, we could paint it this way. And then if we do this. ” And we didn’t really run numbers like we’ve learned how to do now. And we’ve had to learn how to run the numbers because we just don’t have that.
I mean, my med spa was a cash cow. So if I needed money, we’d make some. That’s one thing I learned is like, “Oh, we need some money? Well, let’s make some. ” And that’s what I’m loving about real estate and why we decided to get back into flipping because I like making some money and flipping is a really fun way to make some money and I get to help people, I get to be creative. My husband gets to find things. He loves to find things and then we have a nice little payoff. So what I would do different is look at the budget and be a little bit smarter, which now that’s what I’m learning how to do.

Tony:
Beth, one follow-up question on the transition back to W2, because I think for a lot of folks that are listening, the goal is to get to, “Hey, I’ve got my own thing going and that’s kind of sustaining me, ” but you’ve ventured back into the stability that comes along with that. What was the decision-making process that you followed to say, “Hey, we’re going to put the MedSpa up for sale versus continuing to run that alongside the flipping and the other rentals that you own.”

Beth:
When we were shut down for COVID and we got to have a life and try other things, when then we had to go back to work for a couple of years, we realized how burned out we were. And it was one of those decisions that we kind of just made within a couple of days. It’s like, let’s put the business up for sale. And so we found a business broker and they had said, “Well, we’re going to take about nine months to sell your business.” And we’re like, “All right, that’s perfect because then we can make some more money and save some money and maybe even pay off one of these properties.” It sold in an hour. So we closed within a month. So it went from nine months of, I have a lot to do and nine months to, I have a lot to do in four weeks.
And so it was a miracle and we got out of there and yeah. So then we realized, okay, we still don’t have quite enough money and now we’re kind of bored. And that really was. We were kind of bored because we couldn’t do too much because we didn’t have that money that we were making. So we’re like, let’s go get jobs. So I started working for the post office. I thought that would be a fun job. I can get paid to exercise by walking. I can be outside and I could be by myself. I just needed my own, I needed to be away from having to wheel and deal and make sales like I had to do with the med spa. And then six months later, my husband started with the post office too. So we’re both mail carriers. If you work for the post office for five years when you started our age, we’re both in our 60s.
If we work five years, we get a pension. It’s not a big pension, but it’s cashflow for the rest of my life is how I look at it. And we also get to keep all our insurance. So I think that’s a win-win-win. So yeah, we have a job that’s going to give us cashflow.

Ashley:
I mean, that feels like a good retirement strategy.

Tony:
I love the concept of how you described it. If I am by myself, I don’t have to talk to anybody throughout there.

Beth:
Well, honestly, Tony, I’d never listened to podcasts. I’d never, nothing until I got this job because now I am by myself all day. I’ve got my headset on and that’s when I really discovered was BiggerPockets. I’ve been with the post office three years now, so I get paid to learn and I get paid to exercise. So yeah.

Ashley:
Well, Beth, thank you so much for joining us today. I really enjoyed this conversation. I still think it’s incredible that you made the $65,000 off one flip in a short period of time, and that was almost the same amount as that IRS debt you had. And I can imagine that took way longer than the flip did to actually pay that off. But congratulations on all your success. And thank you so much for sharing your journey and also the lessons you learned and what you would do differently too. So Beth, where can people reach out to you and find out more information?

Beth:
I’m not on social media, so my email is [email protected]. Who am I? [email protected].

Ashley:
Well, Bob, thank you so much. We really enjoyed having you on today.

Beth:
Thank you very much.

Ashley:
I’m Ashley, it’s Tony, and we’ll see you guys on the next episode of Real Estate to Ricky.

 

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Dave:
We’ve talked a lot on the show about corrections, slowdowns, and what a softer market means for investors. Today’s conversation is a little different. My guest, Melody Wright, has been widely quoted as saying we could be headed for a crash worse than 2008. I was pretty shocked, to be honest, by the claims that I heard from Melody, and I invited her on the show for a debate. But as you’ll hear in our conversation, her opinions about housing may not have been so accurately reported by the mainstream media. So what does she actually believe and what is the real thesis behind her view of the housing market?
Welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer, and I’m joined by Melody to clear the air. Lay out her outlook in her own words and walk through the mechanics of what she thinks happens next. We’ll dig into how the labor market and inventory are shaping housing across the country. What evidence points towards a larger scale correction? And we’ll dig into some risks in the private credit market. And of course, we’ll talk about what investors should be watching for as we head through the rest of 2026. This is On The Market. Let’s get into it. Melody, welcome to On the Market. Thanks for being here.

Melody:
Thank you so much for having me. It’s my pleasure.

Dave:
Maybe you could start by just introducing yourself and letting us know a little bit about how you’re involved in the housing market.

Melody:
Sure. Yeah. So I fell into mortgage in 2006 by accident because that’s how everybody gets into mortgage. You don’t grow up and say, “Oh, I want to work for an industry that’s called Death Pledge.” So basically, I started at one of the top subprime lenders in September of 2006, having no idea what I was getting myself into. And very quickly, because we were part of a big transaction with a private equity firm, they were seeing the signs and they wanted a purchase price adjustment. So we basically led the write down. So I was at a top five originator and servicer and rode throughout the great financial crisis, just which was just a total, total dumpster fire. And we had started out as a subprime lender, but really our biggest book was agency. So it was more prime than subprime, but that little problem caused more and more problems as time went on.
And so I wrote all that through after that. My company finally went into bankruptcy in 2012.

Dave:
Oh,

Melody:
Wow. It took us that long and it was- I’m

Dave:
Sorry to hear that.

Melody:
Oh, no. I mean, it had to happen. But after that, I went to FinTech companies trying to help implement some of the Dodd-Frank as well as help the industry get technology because believe it or not, if you walked into Wells Fargo today or any of the large servicers, you’ll see black and blue screens, black and green screens.

Dave:
I do believe that.

Melody:
Yeah. I mean, it’s crazy and
Nobody remembers the code. And so that kept me very, very busy. But when I was at one of those FinTech companies, my CEO said, “You’ve got to tell me when rates are going to rise.” Because everything was just pumping a hundred miles per hour, but we all knew it was going to slow down at some point. And so I kind of jumped into macro. And then from there, I started realizing a lot of people weren’t putting the whole story together. So I wrote an article in January of 23 in Housing Wire, which I’m sure this is something we’ll talk about, but debunking the inventory myth. And then I went out on the road. I went on the road, drove all across the country looking at these markets, and I’m looking at them from a macro and micro perspective. So I track 85 markets. I look at inventory every week in those markets.
And then I started my Substack in the spring of 2023. And that’s how I got here. That’s short version anyway.

Dave:
Well, I’m really eager to hear about your takes on the housing market. I think we’re probably going to disagree on some things, but I am looking forward to hearing your opinions about these things. So maybe you could just start by telling us big picture. What do you see nationally in the housing market right now and where do you think we’re heading over the next few years?

Melody:
Yeah. So right now, we’re entering year four of frozen tundra. I mean,
It’s actually mind-boggling when you think about it that we could have the lowest sales since 1995 yet have increased population by 20% since then. I don’t know that anybody thought we could have this low of transactions for this long. And so when you have your affordability problem, people can’t afford mortgages. FHA was the way that a lot of people were getting in in 21, 22, 23 with those low down payments. And half the time they were using some down payment assistance program from the American Rescue Plan money. And so you got a lot of people in that way, but that’s kind of run out, especially with student loans now reporting to credit. You’re seeing a much tighter credit, not necessarily that the lenders are tightening. It’s just, “Oh, you had a 750 yesterday. Today, you have a 550. That’s just not going to work out, ” which is why the Fed reported some of the highest, well, the highest mortgage refinance rejection rate.
Their last SE report over 43%, which that’s a little insane. Wild. Yeah. And it’s over 20% for purchases. So you have the affordability problem, and then you also have the boomers who own most of the real estate, and they also spend a lot of time on mainstream media, and they still believe that their house, despite those repairs they never did, and maybe it’s their second, third house, is going to sell for even more than theirs estimate. And so I think what you’re seeing right now with the cancellations is, yes, some of it’s credit, but I think a lot of it’s like you get to that final closing table, you have the property inspection, you’re like, “No.” And the seller’s just refusing to come down. And so we call it rage de- listing, which is what we’ve seen across all these markets is people just de- listed like crazy, which is why what I just saw in February was kind of wild.
You probably know inventory bottoms in February typically. Well, what we saw after the crypto route and after the wobbliness in the stock market, listings are flying onto market and way more than what you would typically see seasonally. And I’m seeing some data providers not talk about this. And so I don’t know if that’s the timing of their data, but Realtor did come out with an article about a week ago just saying they’d seen a boom in listings, but I’ve seen it in my 85 markets.

Dave:
And how are you tracking those new listings? Because I did see that realtor article. I think they said it was like new listings are up 8% year over year, something like that. I think Redfin has it about flat, but are you seeing a bigger increase than that?

Melody:
So year over year, that’s about what I saw, like 8%. Yeah. Which it’s not even that year over year number, it’s how quickly they came to market in a matter of two weeks. That was what’s so shocking to me. So someone like … I mean, California was up 15% month over month. And so it was like everybody was pulling, pulling listings. And then somewhere someone got a memo now in California that was probably related to some layoffs because you’re seeing a lot of that in San Jose and they had some eBay, Western digital layoffs. So I track all listings. A lot of people exclude pending. I don’t. And so I look at it all because new, I saw back in the day when Altos only focused on new listings, they missed what was happening. And so they were missing the buildup. And so I just focus on everything.

Dave:
Okay. And so when you look at this inventory data that you’re collecting and looking at and some of the broader trends, it sounds like you think we’re heading for a full blown crash. Is that right?

Melody:
So that’s what everybody focuses on. I mean, but the timing of that would take a long time because what I’m really focused on the more long-term picture and our current demographics. And we have a problem that a lot of the inventory is under-reported. This is what I found when I went on the road and I was trying to match permits to what I was seeing in front of my face. But in places like Texas, you don’t have to file a permit in an unincorporated area, and a lot of these areas were not incorporated. And so I think probably if you were just looking at Zonda, for instance, or new home source, we’re probably missing 25% of the new

Dave:
Inventory. Interesting.

Melody:
And so here’s the thing too, we’re in the data dungeon. We haven’t had really new home sales for months. And when they publish the data, what they’re doing is putting placeholders in and then revising it. So we’re really lagged in what we’re seeing there. But before the data suspension, they hit below 400,000 on their median sales price, which is nuts. It just is keeping the trend of that new home price being lower than the existing home price. And so I know everybody focuses on, yes, do I see a crash? I see a correction. I do not see a crash. And I fully believe that until we address affordability, meaning wages have to rise, that historical relationship that really started getting messed up back in the ’90s is going to go back because of the demographic situation and the silver tsunami. And the other thing I think many people miss is how much speculation occurred, how much speculation occurred outside of the MLS.
I mean, I think that’s also one of our problems right now is that I think that the private market is a lot bigger. I go to a conference in Nashville for private note buyers, and that is much bigger than I think anybody realizes. The mortgage industry is just starting to see it. The pace is Morby sub twos are starting to see that. And so yeah, I think we’re missing a lot of information, but in the short term, this year we’ve got the FHA guardrails went on in October, and that is why we’re seeing serious delinquency rise. They have a little bit more time with a forbearance, short term forbearance. We could potentially skate through this whole year again. I mean, it’s just we need some sort of sentiment trigger because a lot of the boomers are not in a hurry. But now what I’m seeing in my market, the number of deceased borrowers is increasing at alarming rates, especially in the Northeast, because I use a tool called property radar.
And you look at such low owner occupancy in these markets, especially these coastal markets, and who owns those? And they won’t be owning them forever. And Charles Schwab did a study and said 70% of inherited properties get sold. And so I just think the industry’s not taking all of this into consideration.

Dave:
We got to take a quick break, everyone, but we’ll have more with Melody Wright right after this. Welcome back to On The Market. Let’s get back to our conversation with Melody Wright. So you think prices are going to come down, but over time, it’s not like an event that’s going to happen this year, but I’ve seen some, you’ve, I think, said in the past that you think prices could come down as much as 50% or be equal to the median income in the US. Do you still think that’s true?

Melody:
I didn’t say equal to the media income.

Dave:
I saw that in Newsweek, but I don’t want to misquote you.

Melody:
Yeah, Newsweek misquoted me. They misquoted me

Dave:
Twice.

Melody:
I had to send a correction. Sorry. It was very frustrating because then unusual Wales tweets it out and eight million people say it. So no, what I said was that we could see in some markets corrections as much as 50% that could take some

Dave:
Time

Melody:
To do not in a year. That was for their headline. And I also said, when I said match, I meant that historical relationship. And then some dude put up on Instagram that it was going to equal, but I didn’t say any of those things if you watched the original interview.

Dave:
Okay. No, no. Yeah. Let’s clear the air there and say what you think. So you’re basically saying you think we need to get back towards a historical relationship between income and home prices, not that they need to match one to one. That’s right. I see. Okay. Yeah, I’ve heard that argument too. I hope you’re right about that. I would love … People measure it very differently, the income to price ratio. Some people say it’s seven, some people say it’s five, but we are definitely at an elevated rate. The one I was looking at yesterday shows us at about seven, seven times your income for the average home price. And the historical relationship is more somewhere around five. So we are definitely in a distorted era. But if you look at other countries, if you look at Canada or New Zealand or Australia, they just keep going up and up.
And I hope that does not happen, but I am with you on the affordability front. I think affordability needs to come down. Yeah, I guess we are more in agreement than I was anticipating because I think it’s just going to take some time. I think personally, I think prices might stay somewhat stagnant for a very long time. I do think they’re coming down this year, but when I say somewhat stagnant, I mean single digit declines, not double digit declines while hopefully wages rise and rates start to come down and that gets us back to affordability, but I don’t yet see the evidence that we’re going to see this race to the bottom. So I’m curious, you had mentioned we need a sentiment trigger or something. And I think we see that in a lot of the economy, right? It seems like stock market’s kind of on edge and you just don’t know what might tip it over.
So I’m curious if you have any thoughts on what might bring about the start of this sort of decline that you’re anticipating.

Melody:
I think that it’s starting when Zillow put out that article and said 53% of homes have had price cuts and that average is 9%. That was, I think, mid-summer, late summer. So I think it’s been building and building and building, but a credit crisis is what I actually think. But I’m not the kind of person that says, I’m not here because I have 2008 PTSD, which I think some influencers like to say about me. That’s not why I’m here. I actually believe this couldn’t happen again because I spent many years of my life trying to make sure it didn’t, but our demographics are the big issue. So I honestly think, like I just kind of said to you, is we might skate through this year again, I mean,

Dave:
With

Melody:
Probably a modest decline, which may be what you’re calling for, but I think this credit crisis that we’re seeing brewing in private credit, what Chase just did

Dave:
Is

Melody:
Not … And it’s so much bigger than what people realized yet because they restricting access to further borrowing. And so what will happen a lot of times when you have one of these big warehouse lines, you have that collateral pledge at any moment they can turn around and say to you, we’re writing this down. So let’s say that you are at what you’re supposed to pledge today at 100 and you’ve got fully levered. When they write that down, you now have to empty up more collateral at the same time to do that, you have to mark those assets down. And so this process, it’s a quiet little article. I know it may seem like it’s loud, but actually they aren’t explaining the degree that this is problematic because once you cut off funding, that’s what happened last time. We had a collateral shortage, funding was cut off and so the confidence game was up and that created liquidity shortage across the system.
Can

Dave:
You explain to everyone what this is, just like private credit and how it is related in real estate? Because you hear about it in private equity and funding mid-size companies and some of these hedge funds and private equity companies sort of filling the gap that Dodd-Frank kind of took away from the banks, but how is it related to real estate?

Melody:
So it’s important to kind of understand what happened with Basel III in game announced and the banks really pull back from lending because they were risk weighting certain assets a lot higher than others. And so you can actually see sort of the transition, and this is another reason why we don’t have all the data, the transition for the banks to the non-banks, the non-banks, be it your Rocket, your UDub, Mr. Cooper, Freedom, they are doing all of the origination. These are private non-banks. They don’t have deposits. I mean, so basically what happens when the banks pulled back, then you had these private actors get in to do the lending. Now, the banks are exposed just like because who is lending to these private credit companies? But so what you have was a whole bunch of people- Right.

Dave:
Sorry, I just want to clarify what you’re saying is- Oh, go ahead. Banks are not either not allowed to or for strategic reasons aren’t making these loans, but they invest in the private companies that make these loans. I just want to make that clear because it is all super interconnected.

Melody:
Yeah. They’re lending to them. And it is so confusing, right? But what these private credit folks did is they, again, thought they were the smartest guys in the room. They don’t understand credit and they thought they could just go off the credit score for a lot of this origination. So what do they do? There’s all kinds of best egg is a Barclays company out there. There’s all kinds of companies out there giving short-term loans or giving secure personal loans that are being backed by these business development companies is what they’re called our BDCs. And that’s considered private credit because they’re not a bank, they’re not federally insured and they don’t take deposits, which is what you need when you get into times of stress because of what Jamie Diamond just did. Now if they don’t have cash, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble and it’s just going to start eating in that cash, eating in that cash.
So I’ve talked to some actors in this space that did the kind of DSCR lending, things like that, and they’re terrified because they were using majority credit scores and unfortunately they didn’t realize that evictions weren’t being reported. You had the mortgage forbearance, you had student loans just stop reporting. And so when that reporting started, everybody woke up to a very different credit picture, especially for our younger generations. And the issue too is you got to think about like Klarna, our firm has a loan from Blue Owl.
Only one of those is reporting to credit, most are not. And this is what I’m hearing. And so when the Fed does its debt and household schedule, where do they get that information? They get it from Experian. Also, this is something nobody knows, I don’t think, is that the payment deferrals, which were the workouts for the Fannie and Freddie loans, those aren’t recorded on public record.
And just as we were talking about at the beginning of the show, those systems are so old. If you ever see a credit reporting file, you’d probably want to go jump off a building. It’s so crazy. And so the smaller servicers can’t get it right. Sometimes they don’t get it right for other reasons, but I don’t believe that those loan to values are being properly reported. And I reached out to CoreLogic Totality and I was like, how are you accounting? Because they do the mortgage equity withdrawal study that every newspaper uses and they get their information from public records.That’s why we can trust Case Schiller more than we can. Nar last time had to re-report three years of price history and sales history, but we can trust Case Shiller because they’re pulling from recorded record. And I said, “So how are you taking that into consideration?” Of course, I

Dave:
Got

Melody:
No response.

Dave:
Interesting.

Melody:
They’re

Dave:
Not. So you think that would imply that the total homeowner equity is over-reported? Is that what you mean?

Melody:
Oh, yes. Yep.

Dave:
Because of forbearance, people were basically deferring their principal pay down- 18

Melody:
Months.

Dave:
… for whatever it is, a certain amount of time. So that could … Yeah, I think that is probably true that it is being over-reported, but it’s still super high. I think that’s the thing that kind of makes me feel better about total homeowner equity, at least, because even I was kind of doing the math the other day, I was thinking about this, and it’s like maybe a trillion dollars of over-reporting, which sounds like a lot, but total homeowner equity is reported right now, like 35 trillion. So it makes a difference, but not crazy. But I want to go back to the DSCR thing, because I think that’s relevant to our audience. So you’re basically saying that a lot of these private lenders, which could be everything from DSCR to even people who are, I would assume, buying notes or whatever they’re doing, they are recognizing that there was more risk in their portfolio than they originally did.
Do you know or have any insights on are delinquencies up in that space? Because I think that’s the thing that I keep coming back to about a crash is that I think delinquencies are the real canary in the coal mine. I don’t disagree with you about demographic stuff. I actually did a whole show about it last week about demographics and I think it hits more towards the 2030s personally, but I agree with you that there’s significant headwinds there for real estate. But to me, the reason the market has held up, and I think for the foreseeable future might see smaller declines, but not huge ones, is delinquency rates for conventional mortgages at least remain relatively low. But as you’ve pointed out, things are all super interconnected. So are delinquencies in private credit going up?

Melody:
Oh yeah. We have so few numbers. This is the problem,
But looking at Black Knight, this time last year, they were already over 12% and that stuff that we know about, this is the problem is only 3% of the market. So big whoop, right? But FHA actually is now, it was 7% of the market in our previous cycle, it is now 13% of the market. And so what I’m looking at, again, a lot of different metrics because we’re missing so much data. So you look at the debt to income schedule on Fannie Mae, they report it and we are at 2008 levels. And so I get your point 100% on there is a ton of equity out there. I think it’s probably been spent elsewhere that we don’t sell a lot of it.

Dave:
That’s interesting.

Melody:
I’ve

Dave:
Seen

Melody:
It. I’ve seen it. And so you always see it in servicing, not origination, because you see what warts, what actually happened when those loans go to default. But FHA being at 12%, I mean, this is insane.That’s really levels that we saw back then. And as I was saying, subprime is only about 12% of the market. So the reason we’ve been able to sustain this is all that government intervention. We basically had what they did after the GFC on steroids thrown into … I mean, that advanced loan modification that FHA was doing was just the mill. I mean, people were not paying, they just kept going back. You didn’t pay for three months and we went back and you just kept going over and over. Now it’s restricted to one every 24 months, up to 30% of unpaid principal. I mean, that’s insane. And so the other thing about the prime books, to your point, cannot argue with those low delinquency rates, they’re starting to tick up.
This is the season they should not be ticking up at all because it’s tax refund and bonus season, but guess what they do? They do non-performing loan sales and they sell those loans off to hedge funds.

Dave:
Interesting.

Melody:
And hedge funds then can either take on the servicing of these loans or they can sell them off to private investors, which is the conference I go to in Nashville, but they sell them off to books. They’re gone.

Dave:
So what you’re saying is if you’re a conventional mortgage holder and you have a non-performing loan, someone stops paying. The reason it might not show up in the data is because the institution, whoever it is holding that note, might just sell it to a private investor instead of keeping it on their own books. And because private investors don’t have the same reporting requirements as any of the GSCs, then it might not show up in our delinquency reporting. Is that what you’re saying?

Melody:
So I’ve talked to some of these servicers, they’re not reporting to credit. You don’t have to. And in fact, some of these, my suspicion is some of these funds don’t want to do that because it would then kind of bring more awareness to … Because if the private market right now has such a high delinquency rate, I can guarantee you those that were sold off that we’re not even tracking has a high one as well. And so, I mean, this is, as you alluded to, this is a very complicated machine. It’s hard for anybody to really figure out how it works, but there’s so many moving parts. And I think a lot of people are doing what, I mean, as natural as a human, they’re looking back to last time and saying, “Well, this isn’t the same, this isn’t the same.” And I agree with all those points.
In fact, when I first started this journey, I said, “Mortgage is not going to have an issue.” It’s not because property taxes and insurance are going to be enough to trigger some people. I mean, and you can see it when I’m traveling, I always try to watch the local news. Every single news, it’s about property taxes. And so that becomes a mortgage to some people,
But if you’re on a fixed income and somebody tells you your property tax is getting raised by 50% or your insurance, it doesn’t matter that you’ve paid off your home. And so those are the types of things that we’re seeing, but I totally, I get everybody’s points and I agree

Dave:
With

Melody:
All of that data, but I think we’re missing a ton.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s interesting. I think a lot of the data is not complete essentially that we’re missing sort of a dangerous part of the market in at least the public reporting, which I can’t argue with. I just don’t know. That’s the scary part. I guess it’s like, I don’t know if that’s what the case is. So we got to take one more quick break, but we’ll be right back with Melody Wright. Stick with us. Welcome back everyone. Let’s jump back in with Melody. I’m curious, do you know, you might not, like know what the percentage of total mortgages in the market are private now versus sort of the things that are tracked?

Melody:
Yeah. If I knew that, I’d be a rich person. But

Dave:
What

Melody:
I do know is, so I take anecdata, like I always try to back it up with data, but Inman did an article a couple years ago about Austin specifically and said 50% of the transactions that happen within these specific zip codes, of course they’re nicer zip codes, we’re all private. You can see amounts of seller financing for the ones that go through the MLS, but when I go talk to these guys at the private note conference, yeah, I think it was 23 billion in 23-

Dave:
Seller financing is like almost always off

Melody:
Market.

Dave:
Yeah.

Melody:
And so we don’t know, but every time I talk to someone, they’re like, “Oh, well, we didn’t go through a realtor. Oh, we didn’t do this or…” I mean, you’re hearing about so much of this. So I think that one of the issues why we’re having lower sales is because it’s just happening outside of traditional NAR markets or MLS.

Dave:
Yeah, they’re losing their monopoly a little bit.

Melody:
And they knew this in 2015. You can go back and I want to get my hands on it, but they were freaking out about it. So I think that happened at scale during COVID. Homes are being sold on Facebook, especially short-term rental properties in a matter of seconds. So I think this has happened. This is why the data looks the way it does to some degree, but that sizing that market is a big deal. But I’ve heard some of that seller financing is at really small servicers that aren’t reporting to credit, had something like a 37% default rate, something crazy. I mean, I can’t remember the number exactly, and it’s just a small shop, so it’s not fully representative of anything, but these are the canary and the coal mines. When the Talking Heads talk on mainstream media, a lot of their talk is about Joe and Jane, first time home buyers, but I don’t think they realize how much our market is actually about investors and how much they participate.
And the Philly Fed did a great article in January of 23 that said, “We know that fraud didn’t stop after the GFC.” And in fact, what we can tell you, it Is that where investors are participating, you can add that there’s going to be a third more actually than what’s being reported. So you know Redfin tracks-

Dave:
Transaction volume?

Melody:
Yeah. Because of the

Dave:
Owner

Melody:
Occupancy fraud, right?

Dave:
Oh, that kind of fraud where people are claiming owner occupancy.

Melody:
Yeah. And what I’m seeing in servicing, and they got their cousin to get a loan. And I mean, I’m seeing crazy stuff that I got to be honest with you, I didn’t see in the last crisis where I’m like … Yeah. So the other thing everybody has to understand is that when you … So 85% of mortgages go to the agencies, be that Fannie, Freddie, FHA. They have these underwriting, automated underwriting tools that you have to use. So you fill out all the information, you hit send, you get back an approval. Well, like any game, you can learn to game this game.

Dave:
Yeah, right. Exactly. It’s just a different kind of fraud, not fraud, or just like people game the system differently. Yeah. Because you

Melody:
Just gained the system and I have now seen- It’s a human

Dave:
Nature.

Melody:
Yeah. Where I mean, just crazy stuff that would’ve never happened before, full liens. Anyway, point is servicing and starting to show the cracks. And so I like to say to people, in 2007, my Prime books looked just fine. They look fine. I mean, we had low LTE looked fine. By the time we came around the corner to 2010, that was a completely different story because the foreclosure crisis for us was our prime borrowers. I mean, it wasn’t the subprime because they were such a smaller percent. And I forgot that part. I managed default at the end of my career at GMAG ResCap. And so at the time I had 65,000 foreclosures and I was traveling all over the country trying to figure out what to do. And I think that was one of the most shocking things this time is I would go to the same neighborhoods that were complete disasters last time.
And in some neighborhoods that had been bulldozed and they were building there again and off to the sides and off to the sides and off to the sides. So it’s not what it was before. We could have this credit crisis be triggered by private credit, not
Personal loans.

Dave:
Not subprime.

Melody:
Not

Dave:
Subprime. Yeah. To your point,
Subprime small part of the market in 2008, but it creates a whole financial mess. It’s a lot of interconnectedness. Domino’s, you have banking regulations that require them to keep certain amounts of capital when that starts to dry up. It just causes this chain reaction. And so what you’re saying is, let me paraphrase and correct me if I’m wrong, is you’re thinking that one potential avenue that could trigger a slide in prices in the housing market is instead of subprime this time, it’s like private market money that could then spill into the banking sector and sort of jam up the entire financial plumbing that is required for real estate to work.

Melody:
That’s right. I mean, commercial real estate was held up by private credit majority last year, 20 to 25%.

Dave:
Oh yeah. Commercial for sure. Yes. Yeah.

Melody:
So now I’m starting to go after these smaller companies that I have not … I’m looking into BestEx, some other companies like that just to see, because we have our MFS here somewhere. That was the UK lender in mortgage. There’s one of these here and I’m trying to find it, but just know that a lot of these private transactions were just mom and pop investors. I have seen a chain of title that would make your head explode of second lien, second lien, second … And none of this, these were all private borrowers. And this is what’s happening in bankruptcies is servicers are having to go back to their clients and say, “I’m sorry, you’re not in first position.” Because the other thing that was happening is that there were recording delays. Los Angeles had a year recording delay.

Dave:
And so they don’t even know they’re a second?

Melody:
Yeah. You could get your credit run at the same time, like in the same … You could get two loans on one home easily back then, because I mean, the machine was just going so fast. So there’s all these little things like this. And I think that a lot of those private investors would get funding from one of these companies through some sort of fund and they’re kind of out there on their own. So we really, we don’t … You used to have to, when you did these non-performing loan sales, the agencies used to put out a report that told you how many loan modifications were done. You had to report everything you were doing with those loans. That stopped a while ago.

Dave:
Yeah. And there’s no hope to get that in private credit, right? They’re not required to do this.

Melody:
No.

Dave:
So we just don’t know, and we probably never will. Is that basically how it works?

Melody:
We might. We might know a little bit because I think you can, you can look at recorded and if you did a deeper dive into recorded mortgages, you could trace this money down. So I think somebody will probably do that work after the fact. I think there’s going to be a lot of papers written about this, but yeah.

Dave:
Yeah. We’ll know retroactively the same way we knew about subprime retroactively.

Melody:
And this is why I do what I do because this is what I remember from the crisis was all of my leaders were misinformed and they just kept hoping and hoping and making bad decisions on that hope. And it’s like, I’m not trying to scare people. I just want them to have some of this information. They can choose to ignore it. I don’t care. But I don’t want some young family, and this is already happening, go buy a new home. And then about two months later, they’re told that the rest of the homes are being sold for rental and you’ve just changed the entire what you purchased. And buying in subdivisions that are never going to be full. I mean, there’s just so many bad decisions that were made and continue to be made. And I’m just hoping to give people just some information to just consider or ignore.

Dave:
Yeah. Well, thank you. This has been super helpful, Melody. I really appreciate you being here. I just have one last question for you. Sure. What do you make of the labor market? For people who listen to the show, I sort of like to regularly tell people different scenarios that could play out. I like to not say, “This is definitely going to happen.” I started last year thinking a crash into … I don’t like to forecast well beyond a year or so, but I said a crash in 2026, maybe a 15% chance. I’ve sort of raised that in the last couple of months to like 25%. I still think, like you said, we’ll skate by. I think that’s the most probable scenario. But to me, the big risk of the sentiment shift is this white collar recession I personally believe we’re going in with layoffs or even just not hiring.
I don’t even think it needs to be that big. So I’m curious, that’s the thing that is more acutely worrying to me. I’m very interested in what you’re saying. I’m going to dig into it more, but since I don’t have the data, it’s hard for me to know and quantify. But the labor market thing, that worries me a little bit. So I’m just curious what you make of that and how that might fit into this picture.

Melody:
Yeah, it’s a big deal. And you can see the white collar recession.That’s what’s happening in San Jose right now. I mean, you can just see it. People

Dave:
Are listing- I live in Seattle, so you

Melody:
See it here too. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, and I heard jokes six months ago, “Well, we’re just trying to sell our house to the Nvidia new millionaires or whatever.” But it’s like you’ve got a ton of motivated selling in California. And I think that probably awareness that the AI bubble is being slowly leaking here is happening. And I think unfortunately, again, those numbers were, the revisions were just insane last year in terms of what the job market actually was. But what you can see is the only thing that’s growing is health and education services. And what

Dave:
Sits in that

Melody:
Is private public partnerships. So that’s a lot of government money actually, even though it doesn’t fall into the government category. So I think the labor market’s much weaker than most people think. And I think that layoff at Block in terms of a sentiment shifter for those white collar,

Dave:
Way bigger

Melody:
Than 16,000 at one of the big shops. This is, “Hey, man, you’re supposed to be sexy and lean. What are you doing laying off half your employees?” And I personally don’t think it’s all about AI. I think they overhired and there’s a lot of- Yes, I totally agree.

Dave:
Yeah. 100%.

Melody:
Yeah. I’m worried. I’m very worried. And if we get a credit crisis, I mean, that’s everybody in these private credit shops. That’s a ton of white collar workers. So yeah, I mean, I think in some ways we’ve probably already been in the white collar recession.

Dave:
Oh, I agree with you there. I think it’s not like a white collar crash yet because I think layoffs are surprisingly low actually if you look historically, but no one’s getting hired. I think that’s … And I have a lot of friends in tech before I worked at BiggerPockets. I worked in tech. I can tell you, you’re right about the Jack Dorsey letter. People are freaking out about that and just the sentiment about it. For people who don’t know, Jack Dorsey, founder of Twitter now, what’s called Block is the name of the company, wrote this letter just about like, “We don’t need people anymore.” I’m laughing because it’s just so crazy, not because I think it’s funny.
Yeah. It’s terrifying, to be honest. And I think this is a real thing. I sometimes think companies are overconfident in AI right now, and that they’re assuming that they’re going to be able to replace all these jobs. And I think the pendulum might swing too far, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be short-term pain. I think there still will be. And companies, especially if they’re faced with slowing consumer sales or whatever, they’re going to wait as long as they can to hire people again and they’re going to try AI for basically everything. So yeah, I think the risks are going up. I do personally take some solace in the fact that there is a lot of equity. We’re not seeing inventory explode right now. In fact, the pace of inventory growth is going down. And so I still think for the next year, slow declines, single digit declines are going on, but there’s just so many variables right now.
And this private credit thing is a new one for us to think about. So thanks for sharing so much with us, Melody. We appreciate you being here.

Melody:
Of course. Thank you. Thank you so much.

Dave:
And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. We’ll see you next time.

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