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Retreat for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Housing

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Single-family built-for-rent construction fell back in the second quarter, as a higher cost of financing crowded out development activity.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 12,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the second quarter of 2025. This is down significantly relative to the second quarter of 2024 (25,000 starts). Over the last four quarters, 71,000 such homes began construction, which is a 16% decrease compared to the 85,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period.

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (7%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share. However, in the near-term, SFBFR construction is likely to slow until the return on new deals improves.

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Growth for Custom Home Building

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NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates year-over year growth for custom home builders amid broader single-family home building weakness. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. With spec home building down and the stock market up, custom building is gaining market share.

There were 54,000 total custom building starts during the second quarter of 2025. This was up 4% relative to the second quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 184,000 homes, just more than a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (180,000).

Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 19% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% recent peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share. The current market share is the highest since 2022.

Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis in this post uses a narrow definition of the sector. It represents home construction undertaken on a contract basis for which the builder does not hold tax basis in the structure during construction.

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Single-Family Starts Edge Higher but Affordability Challenges Persist

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Single-family housing starts posted a modest gain in July as builders continue to contend with challenging housing affordability conditions and a host of supply-side headwinds, including labor shortages, elevated construction costs and inefficient regulatory costs.

Led by solid multifamily production, overall housing starts increased 5.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The July reading of 1.43 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 2.8% to a 939,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 4.2% on a year-to-date basis. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 9.9% to an annualized 489,000 pace.

The slowdown in single-family home building has narrowed the home building pipeline. There are currently 621,000 single-family homes under construction, down 1% in July and 3.7% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level since early 2021 as builders pull back on supply.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 10.2% higher in the Northeast, 17.7% higher in the Midwest, 2.4% lower in the South and 0.5% lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 2.8% to a 1.35-million-unit annualized rate in July. Single-family permits increased 0.5% to an 870,000-unit rate and are down 5.8% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits decreased 8.2% to a 484,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 16.6% lower in the Northeast, 9.1% higher in the Midwest, 3.4% lower in the South and 5.1% lower in the West.

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Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level

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Elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and ongoing supply-side challenges continued to act as a drag on builder confidence in August, as sentiment levels remain in a holding pattern at a low level.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in August, down one point from July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May.

Housing affordability is central to the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed’s monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates.

In further signs of a soft housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in August, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point in August to a level of 35 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 22 but remains at a very low level.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 44, the Midwest gained one point to 42, the South dropped one point to 29 and the West declined one point to 24. The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Market Share of 5,000+ Square Foot New Homes Started Declines in 2024

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In 2024, there were 24,000 homes that exceeded 5,000 square feet, equating to a 2.3% market share of all new homes started. Both the number and market share for 5,000+ square foot homes experienced declines from 2023, according to the annual data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC).

The number of homes started in 2024 exceeding 5,000 square feet dropped to 24,000, a decrease from 26,000 in 2023. In 2006, the number of new 5,000+ square foot homes reached a peak of 45,000. This number proceeded to drop during the Great Recession and hit a low of 11,000 in 2009. Since 2013, the number has remained consistently above 20,000, with a recent peak of 33,000 in 2021.

Of the total number of new homes started in 2024, 2.3% had 5,000+ square feet or more of finished space, down from 2.8% in 2023.  The decline marks the third consecutive drop in the share of homes this size, down from a recent peak of 2.9% in 2021.  In 2015, the 5,000+ square foot share reached a record high of 3.9%.  Since then, it has fluctuated between 2.3% and 3.1%.

Tabulating the major characteristics of 5,000+ square foot homes started in 2024, the data show 83% have a porch, 79% have a finished basement, 71% have a patio, 69% have four or more bathrooms, 66% have a 3-or-more car garage, 54% have five bedrooms or more, and 50% belong to a community association.

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Sales of Lower-Priced New Single-Family Homes Declined Over the Past Five Years

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From 2020 to 2024, sales of lower-priced new homes declined significantly as the market moved toward higher-priced segments. Rising construction costs—driven by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages—as well as higher regulatory costs, made it increasingly difficult for builders to construct affordable homes. On the other hand, low levels of inventory pushed up the price of new single-family homes, deepening the housing affordability crisis for first-time and middle-income buyers.

National New Home Sales by Sales Price

Data from the U.S. Census’s Survey of Construction (SOC) shows that total sales of new single-family homes declined by 17% during the 2020—2024 period. Meanwhile, the median sales price of new single-family homes increased significantly, rising from $330,900 in 2020 to $420,300 in 2024. This steep rise in sales price has placed additional pressure on prospective home buyers, particularly those seeking homes in the lower-priced segments.

Between 2020 and 2024, the market for new single-family homes experienced significant shifts in the distribution of sales by price range. Most notably, there was a sharp decline in sales of lower-priced homes. Homes priced under $300,000 experienced a 65% decline in sales, while sales of homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 fell by 10%. In contrast, higher-end segments saw substantial growth, with sales of homes priced between $800,000 and $999,999 more than doubling and those priced at $1,000,000 or more increasing by 85%.

The market share of lower-priced homes declined dramatically. In 2020, homes priced under $300,000 accounted for 40% of the total new single-family home sales, making them a dominant category. By 2024, this category had dropped to the third largest, overtaken by homes in the $300,000—$399,999 and $400,000—$499,999 ranges. Meanwhile, the share of higher-priced homes expanded, reflecting a broader shift toward more expensive construction and away from affordability.

Regional New Home Sales by Sales Price

The regional picture mirrors these national trends, though the magnitude and affected price category vary by geography. Between 2020 and 2024, all four regions—the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West—saw declines in new home sales. The West experienced the steepest drop at 28%, followed by the Midwest at 14%, the South at 13%, and the Northeast at 8%. The declines mainly reflect significant declines in lower-priced home sales.

In the Midwest and South, the declines in new home sales were limited to homes priced under $300,000. In the Northeast and West, where the regions tend to have higher median home prices, sales declines occurred in multiple price categories. The Northeast saw a broader decline in new homes sold under $600,000, while new home sales in the West reported declines in three price categories under $500,000.

Furthermore, all four regions also experienced a decline in the market share of lower-priced homes. In 2020, more than half of the new homes sold in the Midwest and South were priced under $300,000. By 2024, that share had plummeted to just 16% in the Midwest and 23% in the South. The Northeast and West also saw notable shifts, with the share of homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 dropping sharply over the same period.

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Single-Family Starts Weaken in June as Affordability Challenges Persist

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Single-family housing starts declined in June to the lowest rate since July 2024 as elevated interest rates, rising inventories and ongoing supply-side issues continue to act as headwinds for the housing sector.

Due to a solid increase in multifamily production, overall housing starts increased 4.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The June reading of 1.32 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 4.6% to an 883,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 10% compared to June 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 30% to an annualized 438,000 pace.

Single-family building conditions continued to weaken in June as housing affordability challenges caused builder traffic to move lower as buyers moved to the sidelines. Rising levels of resale inventory are also a headwind for the industry.

Single-family home building in the South is down 12.4% on a year-to-date basis, far outpacing declines in the Northeast and the West. However, single-family home building is up 10% on a year-to-date basis in the Midwest, where housing affordability conditions are generally better than much of the nation.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 28.8% higher in the Northeast, 13.1% higher in the Midwest, 8.1% lower in the South and 0.6% lower in the West.

Overall permits increased 0.2% to a 1.40-million-unit annualized rate in June. Single-family permits decreased 3.7% to an 866,000-unit rate and are down 8.4% compared to June 2024. Multifamily permits increased 7.3% to a 531,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 16.9% lower in the Northeast, 8.2% higher in the Midwest, 3.3% lower in the South and 3.7% lower in the West.

The declines for single-family home building have caused the number of single-family homes under construction to level off. There are currently 622,000 single-family homes under construction, which is 6% lower than a year ago. The number of apartments under construction in June, 739,000, is 18.8% lower than a year ago.

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Residential Remodelers Outnumber Single-family Builders in the U.S.

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The number of residential remodelers in the U.S. has reached a record high of 128,187 establishments, 65% higher than the number of residential builders (single-family and multifamily), which stands at 77,455.  These official government counts were released by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its 2022 Economic Census, which tallies American businesses every five years (in years ending in 2 and 7).

Growth in the number of remodelers significantly outpaced that of builders between 2017 and 2022. In that 5-year span, the remodeler count increased by 25% (102,818 to 128,187), while the number of builders grew at half that pace–by 12% (68,996 to 77,455).

A starker dichotomy emerges when comparing 2022 counts to those in 2007, prior to the financial crisis and the ensuing housing recession.  In that 15-year period, the official number of residential remodelers in the U.S. grew by 73% (73,888 to 128,187), while the official number of residential builders contracted by 21% (98,067 to 77,455).

Another way to analyze this data is by creating a combined universe of both builders and remodelers and then calculating each group’s share of the total. In 2022, for example, remodelers represented 62% of the total number of builders and remodelers in the U.S, while builders made up a minority share of 38%.  Remodelers have accounted for at least 60% of this total in the last three Economic Census (2012, 2017, and 2022). 

The last time builders comprised a majority share was in 2007, when they represented 57% of the combined total number of builders and remodelers in the country.

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2024 New Single-Family Starts by Census Division

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Despite persistently high mortgage rates, elevated financing costs for builders, and a shortage of buildable lots, single-family starts rebounded in 2024, following two straight years of declines. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ analysis of the 2024 Survey of Construction (SOC), a total of 1,009,315 new single-family units started construction nationwide. This is a 7% increase compared to 2023.

Among the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic division led the nation with 344,313 starts in 2024, representing a 34% share. The second highest was the West South Central division at 187,690 starts, followed by the Mountain division with 125,911 starts. Collectively, these three divisions, covering 20 states and Washington, D.C., and representing approximately 41% of the United States, accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total new single-family housing starts in 2024.

Meanwhile, there were 99,166 new single-family units started in the Pacific division (10% of total starts) and 81,106 in the East North Central division (8%) in 2024. The other four divisions, including East South Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic, and New England, accounted for the remaining 17% of the total new single-family housing starts.

In 2024, seven out of nine divisions experienced year-over-year growth in single-family starts. The Middle Atlantic division had the strongest performance among all regions, posting a 22% annual increase. In addition, five out of nine divisions surpassed the U.S. growth rate of 7%. Conversely, both the East South Central and West South Central divisions recorded declines in single-family housing starts.

Compared to the previous year, the New England and West South Central divisions experienced a deceleration in growth, while the East South Central division marked its second consecutive year of decreases. In contrast, the remaining six divisions reported an acceleration in growth. Despite regional disparities, the overall national trend in 2024 reflected a resilient housing market, even in the face of ongoing economic and supply-side challenges.

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Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales

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Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty sent more home buyers to the sidelines in May as housing affordability conditions remain challenging.

Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the slowest pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged 6.83% in May. Sales were particularly slow in the South, with the pace of sales down 21% in May.

The slowing of the housing market has occurred despite the growing use of of builder sales incentives, including 37% of home builders reporting cutting prices in the June NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey.

On a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 3.2% lower thus far in 2025. As a result of slowing home sales conditions, inventory continues to rise, marking an elevated 9.8 months’ supply in May.

As estimated by NAHB, total months’ supply, defined as a combination of current new and resale single-family inventory, now stands at 5.2. This is the highest sales-adjusted inventory level since 2015 and will place downward pressure on housing construction starts in the months ahead.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the May reading of 623,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory continued to rise with 507,000 residences marketed for sale as of May. This is 1.4% higher than the previous month and 8.1% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, the months’ supply for new homes stands at 9.8 compared to 8.5 a year ago. Completed, ready-to-occupy new home inventory stood at 115,000 in May, up 29% compared to a year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. However, this measure was higher at the end of 2024.

The median new home sale price in May was $426,600, compared to $414,300 a year ago. This measure reflects the fact that higher income borrowers face fewer budget constraints than lower income prospective home buyers. New home sales priced below $500,000 were down 15% in May of 2025 compared to the May 2024.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 20.7% in the Northeast, 11.9% in the Midwest and 1.8% in the South. Sales are up 2.1% in the West.

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