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As the nation’s housing stock continues to age and new homes remain out of reach for many buyers, remodeling is capturing a growing share of the residential construction market, both in terms of the number of firms and employment. With most U.S. households unable to afford new construction, renovation has become a more practical and cost-effective alternative to improve housing conditions, driving demand on the consumer side. On the supply side, many home builders undertake remodeling projects to grow their business. NAHB’s analysis of the quarter-century of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data suggests that the rise of remodelers is a sustained structural shift rather than a temporary post-pandemic surge.

Remodeling Firms’ Share in Residential Construction is Rising
Over the past 25 years, the number of remodeling establishments has nearly doubled—from fewer than 69,000 in 2000 to more than 128,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Remodelers now represent over half (56%) of all residential building construction (RBC) establishments. By contrast, during the mid-2000s housing boom, remodelers’ share consistently hovered around 38–39%, when the market was dominated by home builders, including new single-family and multifamily general contractors as well as speculative (spec) home builders.

Although the remodeling sector was not immune to the 2008 housing crash, its losses were modest compared to the contraction of home building. Between 2007 and 2012, the number of remodeling establishments fell by 8%, while roughly one-third of home builders went out of business. As a result, the remodeler’s share of the RBC sector rose sharply after the crash, reaching 46% in 2011, and has continued to climb steadily ever since.

During the post-pandemic housing boom, driven by low mortgage rates, the rise of remote work, and a renewed demand for larger living spaces, both remodelers and home builders experienced solid growth. However, remodelers expanded their ranks at a faster pace, with their share of RBC firms climbing to 54% by 2022. Less sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage rates than home builders, remodelers have continued to grow even amid a series of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes that sharply increased the cost of home purchases and slowed new construction. As of 2024, remodeling firms account for 56% of all RBC establishments.

Remodeling Employment Share in RBC is Rising

In the overall construction industry, which encompasses residential and non-residential building construction, as well as heavy/civil engineering construction, land subdivision, and specialty trade contractors, it is the latter that dominate the overall sector employment. However, the government employment surveys cannot identify what portion of subcontractors’ business is devoted to remodeling. As a result, RBC is the subsector that allows tracking the remodeling trends best.

The analysis of employment trends in residential building construction reveals a similar pattern, with remodelers generating a rising number and share of jobs, largely at the expense of single-family general contractors. As of 2024, the remodeling sector accounted for almost half (49%) of RBC workers. In contrast, during the housing boom of the mid-2000s, only 30% of payroll employees worked for remodelers, while single-family general contractors employed 63% of the RBC workforce.

The shift is even more pronounced within the production (nonsupervisory) workforce of the RBC industry.  More than half (51.2%) of these skilled craftsmen now work for remodeling firms, compared with roughly 30% in the early 2000s, according to NAHB’s analysis of historical data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.

Multifamily general contractors, who subcontract out most of their construction work, account for a smaller share of home building jobs but have also gained ground. Fueled by strong multifamily activity in 2022–2023, their share of RBC employment grew to 5% by 2024. For-sale builders account for an additional 6%.

The typical remodeling firm remains small, averaging between 3 and 4 employees per establishment, comparable to levels observed during the mid-2000s housing boom. This stability suggests that the overall rise in remodeling employment stems primarily from the creation of new firms or the reclassification of home builders shifting toward renovation work as remodelers. It is likely that, as market conditions change, some home builders, particularly smaller single-family general contractors, pivot toward renovation projects to stay and grow their business. The remodeling sector’s lower barriers to entry, smaller upfront investments compared to new construction, and fewer regulatory hurdles make the transition easier.

As more companies view remodeling as their primary activity and revenue source, more will be reclassified as remodeling establishments in the official data reporting. This is because data collection in the U.S. is guided by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Under NAICS, a company self-classifies and chooses the industry code that best captures its primary activity. In some surveys, such as the Economic Census, the Census Bureau emphasizes revenue sources as a primary metric for categorizing businesses. The steadily rising number of remodelers and the jobs they create underscores that renovation has become the reliable engine driving growth in the residential construction sector.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning and generative AI (GenAI), is reshaping industries, creating new economic opportunities, and raising critical questions about its long-term impact on jobs and economic growth. 

A recent study by Ping Wang and Tsz-Nga Wong, titled “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” (NBER Working Paper No. 33867, May 2025), provides valuable insights into how AI is reshaping labor markets. Their research highlights both the opportunities and challenges AI adoption brings to the workforce as it becomes increasingly integrated into the economy.

The paper conceptualizes AI as a “learning-by-using” technology, meaning that AI improves its capabilities by learning from the very workers it may eventually replace. In the short term, this dynamic can significantly boost labor productivity. However, over time, if wages and job roles are not adjusted to reflect the growing capabilities of AI, the technology may transition from a supportive tool to a direct substitute for human labor.

The paper outlines three possible long-term scenarios:

Some-AI Steady State: AI improves productivity threefold but cuts nearly a quarter of jobs. Half of the job losses occur within the first five years, driven by the rapid replacement of workers by an AI system.

Unbounded-AI Equilibrium: AI adoption unfolds smoothly, enhancing productivity without displacing workers. Employment rises modestly as AI becomes a complement to human labor rather than a substitute.

No AI Equilibrium: AI fails to take off, and the labor market remains largely unchanged from its traditional form.

AI presents a dual-edged sword. While it holds the potential to drive sustained growth and create new kinds of work, it also poses significant risks of job displacement. Early stages of AI adoption see the most significant job losses, while those who keep their jobs often see wage increases due to higher productivity.

The authors emphasize that the long-term impact of AI remains uncertain. Outcomes will depend on several variables, including AI’s learning speed, error rates, and the relative cost of replacing workers with machines. This unpredictability makes it difficult to forecast whether AI will be a net job creator or destroyer over time.

Additionally, the study points out that traditional labor market policies are insufficient to address the complex challenges posed by AI. Instead, smart, targeted policies are needed, like balancing the bargaining power between workers and firms, and offering subsidies to jobs at risk of AI disruption. These steps could mitigate negative outcomes and improve overall welfare significantly over the next 20 years, and help make AI a powerful ally in our work rather than a threat.

The Impact of AI on the Home Building Industry: Opportunities and Challenges

In the home building industry, on the supply side, AI is beginning to make its mark with both significant opportunities and complex challenges.

From automating repetitive tasks to enhancing project efficiency, AI is transforming how homes are designed and built. Technologies, such as AI-powered design tools, robotic bricklayers, and automated construction equipment, are streamlining construction processes. These innovations reduce the need for manual labor in certain areas, leading to lower costs and shorter project timelines and helping address ongoing labor shortages. Moreover, AI is creating new opportunities within the home building sector. Demand is rising for workers skilled in AI system management, data analysis, and digital design, signaling a shift toward more technologically integrated and highly skilled roles.

However, the adoption of AI comes with disruption. Without opportunities for reskilling, many workers whose roles may become automated may face displacement. The shortage of highly skilled workers could drive up labor costs and lead to project delays, putting pressure on housing affordability.

To ensure a smooth transformation, targeted policy support is essential. Public and private investment in workforce retraining and upskilling programs will be key to helping displaced workers adapt to new roles, like ones that involve supervising AI systems or solving complex problems machines can’t yet handle.

On the demand side of the housing market, the impact of AI could potentially be farther-reaching. AI will bring short-term disruption to labor markets, eliminating office jobs in metro areas. Such transitions in labor markets will alter housing demand, until the economy produces new jobs in an AI-adopting economy. And in theory, by making workers more productive, AI will raise long-term wage growth. These income gains will be a positive outcome for remodeling, housing demand, and vacation home demand in long run.

For the time being, these impacts are speculative. Over time, they will be worth watching on both the supply and demand sides of the housing market.

Note:

Schmelzer, Ron. “Building The Future: How AI Is Revolutionizing Construction.”

“The Rise of Artificial Intelligence in Construction.” Construction Today, September 2024.

Demirci, Ozge, Jonas Hannane, and Xinrong Zhu. “Research: How Gen AI Is Already Impacting the Labor Market.” Harvard Business Review, November 11, 2024.

“Artificial Intelligence Impact on Labor Markets.” International Economic Development Council (IEDC) and Economic Development Research Partners (EDRP), Literature Review.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .


BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — Local realtors are bracing for some big changes in how you buy and sell your home.

On August 17, a recent settlement from the National Association of Realtors will go into effect, changing commission agreements across the country.

“It’s reshaping the industry,” said Vienna Laurendi, President of the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors.

For decades, people selling their homes have traditionally been responsible for a five to seven percent commission split between their agent and the buyer’s agent. But a Midwest jury ruled in part, that agreement can drive up home prices, and decided that commission should no longer automatically come from the seller.

Laurendi described to me how the ruling will change the real estate industry in three significant ways:

Any compensation offered by the home seller will no longer be published using a multiple listing service program.When a buyer wants to tour a home they now have to sign a contract with a buyers agent before they start touring the property.Communication between agents will increase “by 80 percent.”

The changes will give sellers more flexibility but could make things more costly for buyers.
For example, if the seller decides not to pay the commission to the buyer’s agent then the buyer would need to negotiate compensation with their agent.

So if you are looking to buy a $300,000 home, a traditional three percent commission could cost a buyer an additional $9,000.

“A buyer never really had to think about having that extra $9,000 available to cover their real estate agent. Now they will proactively talk about it with their realtor and come up with a game plan as to how they are going to pay the commission,” said Laurendi. “We are going to sit down. We are going to discuss the value that I offer. You are going to go over the contract and we are going to discuss what I would like to earn at the time of closing.”

Laurendi believes it will take some time for the real estate industry to adapt to the changes but believes realtors are dedicated to making it work.

“We are here for the consumer,” said Laurendi. “We are also here to pay our mortgages, but we truly are here for the consumer and we are going to help everyone get through this as quickly as possible. It’s going to be the new norm.”

If you have questions about the new changes you can call the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors at 716-636-9000 or email your questions to president@bnar.org





This article was originally published by a www.wkbw.com . Read the Original article here. .

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