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Single-family housing starts declined in June to the lowest rate since July 2024 as elevated interest rates, rising inventories and ongoing supply-side issues continue to act as headwinds for the housing sector.

Due to a solid increase in multifamily production, overall housing starts increased 4.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The June reading of 1.32 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 4.6% to an 883,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 10% compared to June 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 30% to an annualized 438,000 pace.

Single-family building conditions continued to weaken in June as housing affordability challenges caused builder traffic to move lower as buyers moved to the sidelines. Rising levels of resale inventory are also a headwind for the industry.

Single-family home building in the South is down 12.4% on a year-to-date basis, far outpacing declines in the Northeast and the West. However, single-family home building is up 10% on a year-to-date basis in the Midwest, where housing affordability conditions are generally better than much of the nation.

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 28.8% higher in the Northeast, 13.1% higher in the Midwest, 8.1% lower in the South and 0.6% lower in the West.

Overall permits increased 0.2% to a 1.40-million-unit annualized rate in June. Single-family permits decreased 3.7% to an 866,000-unit rate and are down 8.4% compared to June 2024. Multifamily permits increased 7.3% to a 531,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 16.9% lower in the Northeast, 8.2% higher in the Midwest, 3.3% lower in the South and 3.7% lower in the West.

The declines for single-family home building have caused the number of single-family homes under construction to level off. There are currently 622,000 single-family homes under construction, which is 6% lower than a year ago. The number of apartments under construction in June, 739,000, is 18.8% lower than a year ago.

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With mortgage rates declining by more than one-half of a percentage point from early August through mid-September, per Freddie Mac, builder sentiment edged higher this month even as builders continue to grapple with rising costs.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 41 in September, up two points from a reading of 39 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This breaks a string of four consecutive monthly declines.

Due to lower interest rates, builders now have a positive view for future new home sales for the first time since May 2024. However, builders will face competition from rising existing home inventory in many markets as the mortgage rate lock-in effect softens with lower rates.

With inflation moderating, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a cycle of monetary policy easing this week, which will produce downward pressure on mortgage interest rates and also lower the interest rates on land development and home construction business loans. Lowering the cost of construction is critical to confront persistent challenges for housing affordability.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that the share of builders cutting prices dropped in September for the first time since April, down one point to 32%. Moreover, the average price reduction was 5%, the first time it has been below 6% since July 2022. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives fell to 61% in September, down from 64% in August.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI indices were up in September. The index charting current sales conditions rose one point to 45, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 53 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 27.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 49, the Midwest edged one-point higher to 40, the South decreased one point to 41 and the West increased two points to 39.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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