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Mortgage Applications Dip in May amid Refinance Slowdown

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Mortgage loan applications declined in May, driven by a drop for refinancing activity. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, the Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage application volume, fell 5.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Despite the monthly dip, application volume remains 23.7% higher than in May 2024.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose for the second consecutive month, climbing 10 basis points to 6.9%. Purchase activity remained resilient, posting a modest 1.3% monthly gain from the previous month, while the Refinance Index declined 13.7% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are still 18 basis points lower, with purchase and refinance applications up 15.8% and 39.8%, respectively.

Average loan sizes also declined. In May, the average loan amount for the overall market, which includes purchases and refinances, declined 3.1% to $390,800. Purchase loan sizes stayed flat at $443,600, while refinance loan sizes dropped 12.8% to $296,000. The average size for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) ticked up 0.5%, from $1.05 million to $1.06 million.

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Treasury Yield Increase Drives Mortgage Rates Higher in May

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Mortgage rates continued their upward trend in May due to market volatility triggered by fiscal concerns and weaker U.S. Treasury demand. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.82% — a 9-basis-point (bps) increase from April. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by 5 bps to 5.95%.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgage rates, averaged 4.38% in May, with the most recent weekly yield surpassing 4.50%. Long-term treasury yields spiked following two events: first, a credit rating downgrade by Moody’s Ratings, and then, a tepid auction of the 20-year treasury. The weak demand for long-term government bonds necessitated a higher yield to attract investors.

At the core of the market unease is concern over the growing fiscal deficit that intensified as the new “One Big Beautiful Bill” threatens to further widen the federal deficit, which stood at $1.9 trillion as of January 2025. The combination of weakening fiscal credibility and poor auction performance suggests a possible upward repricing of long-term borrowing costs.

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Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase

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Mortgage loan applications saw little change in April, as refinancing activity decreased. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, experienced a 0.4% month-over month increase on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. However, year-over-year, the index is up 29.3% compared to April 2024.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 10 basis points in April, reaching 6.8%, according to the MBA survey. As rates edged higher, purchase activity posted a modest 1.9% month-over-month gain (SA), while the Refinance Index declined by 1.4% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are down 37 bps, and thus, purchase applications are higher by 11.2%, while refinance activity has jumped 62.0%.

Loan sizes remained relatively stable. In April, the average loan size across the total market (including purchases and refinances) held steady at $403,500, month-over-month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA). Purchase loans sizes edged down 1.3% to $444,000, while refinance loan sizes increased 0.5% to $339,300. Notably, the average loan size for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) fell 7.8%, from $1.14 million to $1.05 million.

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April Mortgage Rates Edge Up Following Treasury Sell-Off

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Mortgage rates edged up slightly in April, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 6.73%, according to Freddie Mac. This marks an 8-basis-point (bps) increase from March. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by 7 bps to 5.90%.

The uptick in mortgage rates followed a sell-off in U.S. Treasury securities, driven by concerns surrounding the ongoing trade war. As demand for Treasuries declined, prices fell and yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.28% in April, with the most recent weekly yield rising to 4.34%. The sell-off signals a potential loss of investor confidence in what is typically considered a safe-haven asset.

In response to rising yields, the president has pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. However, at the recent Economic Club of Chicago, Chairman Powell stated that “tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation” and emphasized the Fed’s obligation to price stability, adding that it must ensure “a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem”.

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Refinancing Continues to Drive Mortgage Activity in March

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The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, rose 14.0% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, driven primarily by a surge in refinancing activity. Year-over-year, the index is up 29.2% compared to March 2024.

The Purchase Index rebounded 8.3% (SA) from the previous month as mortgage rates declined. Meanwhile, the Refinance Index surged 22.2% (SA), continuing its strong upward trend. Compared to a year ago, purchase applications are up 7.6%, while refinance activity has jumped 72.9%.

Economic uncertainty continues to drive treasury yield volatility, impacting mortgage rates. In March, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reported in the MBA survey fell 17 basis points (bps) to 6.7%, marking a 23 bps decline from a year ago.

Loan sizes have continued to rise since the start of the year. In March, the average loan size across the total market (including purchases and refinances) increased 3.5% month-over-month (NSA) to $403,300. For purchase loans, the average size edged up 0.9% to $450,000, while refinance loans saw a sharper increase of 10.4%, reaching $337,500. Meanwhile, the average loan size for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) rose slightly by 1.1%, from $1.13 million to $1.14 million.

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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Early March Drop

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Mortgage rates dropped significantly at the start of March before stabilizing, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 6.65%, according to Freddie Mac. This marks a 19-basis-point (bps) decline from February. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by 20 bps to 5.83%.

The drop in long-term borrowing costs was driven by a 24-bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which averaged 4.28% in March. This decline provided a boost to the housing market—new home sales increased 5.1% year-over-year in February, while the participation of first-time homebuyer of existing homes rose 26% over the same period. However, existing home sales saw a slight dip from last February.

The decrease in Treasury yields reflects growing concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly as shifts in tariff policy weaken consumer confidence. Despite this, the labor market remained resilient in February, posting steady job gains even as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. The strength of upcoming jobs reports will be critical in assessing whether recession risks are intensifying.

At the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but revised its 2025 economic projections: expected GDP growth was lowered to 1.7% (down from 2.1% in December 2024) and the projected unemployment rate was raised to 4.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from previous estimates.

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Lower Mortgage Rates, Better Affordability

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As housing affordability remains a critical challenge across the country, mortgage rates continue to play a central role in shaping homebuying power. Mortgage rates stayed elevated throughout 2023 and early 2024. Recent data, however, shows a modest decline in mortgage rates. Even slight declines can have a significant impact on housing affordability, pricing more households back into the market. New NAHB Priced-Out Estimates show how home price increases affect housing affordability in 2025. This post presents details regarding how interest rates affect the number of households that can afford a median priced new home.

At the beginning of 2025, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7%, around 31.5 million households could afford a median-priced home at $459,826. This requires a household income of $147,433 by the front-end underwriting standards[1]. In contrast, if the average mortgage rates had remained at the recent peak of 7.62% in October 2023, only 28.7 million households would have qualified. This 62-basis point decline has effectively priced 2.8 million additional households into the market, expanding homeownership opportunities.

The table below shows how affordability changes with each 25 basis-point increase in interest rates, from 3.75% to 8.25% for a median-priced home at $459,826. The minimum required income with a 3.75% mortgage rate is $110,270. In contrast, a mortgage rate of 8.25%, increases the required income to $163,068, pushing millions of households out of the market.

As rates climb higher, the priced-out effect diminishes. When interest rates increase from 6.5% to 6.75%, around 1.13 million households are priced out of the market, unable to meet the higher income threshold required to afford the increased monthly payments. However, an increase from 7.75% to 8% would squeeze about 850,000 households out of the market.

This exemplifies that when interest rates are relatively low, a 25 basis-point increase has a much larger impact. It is because it affects a broader portion of households in the middle of the income distribution. For example, if the mortgage interest rate decreases from 5.25% to 5%, around 1.5 million more households will qualify the mortgage for the new homes at the median price of $459,826. This indicates lower interest rates can unlock homeownership opportunities for a substantial number of households.

[1] . The sum of monthly payment, including the principal amount, loan interest, property tax, homeowners’ property and private mortgage insurance premiums (PITI), is no more than 28 percent of monthly gross household income.

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Refinancing Drives Mortgage Activity Higher in February

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The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, rose 4.7% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, primarily driven by refinancing activity. Compared to February last year, the index is 15.6% higher.

The Purchase Index declined 6.5% (SA) from the previous month, though it may rebound as mortgage rates continue to fall amid weakening consumer sentiment and growing economic concerns. Meanwhile, the Refinance Index surged 22.7% (SA). Compared to February last year, purchase applications are marginally higher by 2.1%, while refinance activity has jumped 43.7%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported in the MBA survey for February fell 15 basis points (bps) to 6.9% (index level 687), 7 bps lower than a year ago.

Loan sizes also increased with the average total market loan size (purchases and refinances combined) rising by 4.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis from January to $389,500. For purchase loans, the average size increased by 3.93% to $446,000, while refinance loans experienced a 6.1% increase, reaching an average of $305,800. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) saw a jump in average loan size of 5.9% from $1.07 million to $1.13 million.

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Mortgage Rates Ease Slightly in February Amid Economic Uncertainty

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Mortgage rates declined marginally in February, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 6.84%. After climbing steadily since December and peaking at 7.04% in mid-January, rates have been trending downward.

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased 12 basis points (bps) from January, while the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 13 bps to 6.03%. Although the recent decline in mortgage rates and an increase in the total single-family homes supply are positive signs for buyers, homebuying activity may remain sluggish due to persistent high prices and mortgage rates still exceeding 6%.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined 11 bps to an average of 4.52% in February, reversing its recent upward trend. This shift reflects concerns over a weakening U.S. economy due to inflationary pressures and increasing geopolitical risks. In response, the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts later in the year.

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Families Must Spend 38% of Their Income on Mortgage Payments

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In a clear sign illustrating the housing affordability challenges facing Americans, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI) found that in the fourth quarter of 2024, a family earning the nation’s median income of $97,800 needed 38% of its income to cover the mortgage payment on a median-priced new home. Low-income families, defined as those earning only 50% of the median income, would have to spend 76% of their earnings to pay for the same new home.

The figures track closely for the purchase of existing homes in the U.S. as well. A typical family would have to pay 37% of their income for a median-priced existing home, while a low-income family would need to pay 74% of their earnings to make the same mortgage payment.

There was no change in the percentage of a family’s income needed to purchase a new home (38%) between the third and fourth quarters of 2024. However, the cost burden did increase slightly for low-income families, rising from 75% to 76% of their income.

Meanwhile, the cost burden of existing homes edged lower for both median- and low-income families between the third and fourth quarter. The CHI indices were 37% and 74%, respectively, in the fourth quarter, down from 38% and 75% in the third quarter. The slight uptick in affordability was due to median existing home prices falling 2% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2024.

CHI is also available for 176 metropolitan areas, calculating the percentage of a family’s income needed to make the mortgage payment on an existing home based on the local median home price and median income in those markets.

In 10 out of 176 markets in the fourth quarter, the typical family is severely cost-burdened (must pay more than 50% of their income on a median-priced existing home). In 85 other markets, such families are cost-burdened (need to pay between 31% and 50%). There are 81 markets where the CHI is 30% of earnings or lower.

The Top 5 Severely Cost-Burdened Markets

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., was the most severely cost-burdened market on the CHI, where 87% of a typical family’s income is needed to make a mortgage payment on an existing home. This was followed by:

Urban Honolulu, Hawaii (74%)

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif. (69%)

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif. (69%)

Naples-Marco Island, Fla. (65%)

Low-income families would have to pay between 129% and 174% of their income in all five of the above markets to cover a mortgage.

The Top 5 Least Cost-Burdened Markets

By contrast, Decatur, Ill., was the least cost-burdened market in the CHI, where typical families needed to spend just 16% of their income to pay for a mortgage on an existing home. Rounding out the least burdened markets are:

Cumberland, Md.-W.Va (17%)

Springfield, Ill. (17%)

Elmira, N.Y. (19%)

Peoria, Ill. (19%)

Low-income families in these markets would have to pay between 31% and 39% of their income to cover the mortgage payment for a median-priced existing home.

Visit nahb.org/chi for tables and details.

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