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U.S. Labor Market Softens in July – Eye On Housing

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The U.S. labor market weakened in July, with nonfarm payrolls down 23,000 and downward revisions cutting another 103,000 jobs from May and June. Although the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, the decline reflected a smaller labor force rather than stronger hiring, as overall participation fell to its lowest level since early 2021. July marked the 7th monthly job loss over the last year and a half.

Wage growth also cooled, with average hourly earnings rising 3.2% year-over-year in July to $37.62, down from 3.4% in June and the slowest pace of 2026. Despite the slowdown, wage gains continue to outpace inflation, consistent with productivity-supported real wage growth.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 23,000 in July, following a downwardly revised gain of 20,000 in June. Revisions to prior months were broadly negative again this month. The change for May was revised down by 66,000, from a preliminarily reported +129,000 to +63,000, while the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from a preliminary +57,000 to +20,000. Combined, these revisions subtracted 103,000 jobs from previously reported totals, compared with the 74,000 downward revision reported in the prior month.

Job growth in 2026 has moderated further. Through July, monthly payroll gains have averaged 61,000 on the current data vintage, down from the 92,000 pace reported through June, reflecting both July’s soft print and the downward revisions to May and June. This compares with an average of just 10,000 per month in 2025 and 122,000 per month in 2024. Over the past 12 months, total nonfarm employment has grown by 316,000 in total, a considerably slower pace of expansion than earlier in the cycle.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June. The decrease was driven by a shrinking labor force rather than stronger hiring. Over the month, the number of unemployed persons fell by 178,000 to 6.9 million, while the number of employed persons declined by 87,000. Combined, the civilian labor force contracted by 264,000 in July.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—fell 0.1 percentage point to 61.4% in July. This marks the lowest level since February 2021 and remains well below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the start of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 83.4%, partially reversing June’s sharp 0.6-point decline and suggesting that the drop in labor force participation in July was not widespread.

Industry-level results were mixed in July. Employment declined in local government education (-50,000) and retail trade (-19,000), while financial activities continued to trend down (-14,000). Health care employment continued to increase (+22,000), although at a slower pace than its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. The July release also showed an increase in temporary layoffs, with the number of people on temporary layoff rising to 921,000.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector rose by 22,000 jobs in July, following a gain of 5,000 in June. Within the industry, residential construction employment edged up by 2,100, its first monthly increase in four months, while non-residential construction added approximately 20,000 jobs.

Residential construction employment stood at 3.3 million in July, including 914,600 workers employed by builders and remodelers, down from 915,100 in June, and 2.3 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction employment remains negative, reflecting an average monthly loss of approximately 5,350 jobs and declines in four of the past six months. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has shed a net of 44,200 jobs, marking the seventeenth consecutive month of year-over-year decline. Despite these losses, residential construction employment remains 1,281,200 positions above its post-Great Recession low, with that cushion widening modestly from 1,279,100 in June as July’s small gain offset part of the prior months’ losses.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for construction workers fell to 4.6% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, down sharply from 6.2% in June. A year earlier, the construction unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. Despite the month-to-month volatility, the year-over-year comparison still points to modestly softer conditions for the trades than a year ago.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Remodeling Market Sentiment Remains in Positive Territory in Second Quarter – Eye On Housing

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In the second quarter of 2026, the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 61, down one point compared to the previous quarter. The RMI has remained in the low 60s consistently over the past year.

Even with this slight decline from the previous quarter, remodeler sentiment remains the standout sector within the housing industry, outperforming both its single-family and multifamily counterparts.  

With current mortgage rates above the median outstanding rate for existing homeowners, the incentive to remodel instead of purchasing a new home given the low levels of existing inventory persists due to this lock-in effect. Additionally, homeowners are sitting on record high real estate asset gains which they are able to tap into making it easier to fund remodeling projects. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and current cost pressures due to inflation are causing project delays, especially for larger ones. In the latest RMI survey, 74% of remodelers reported that their suppliers have increased prices of materials since March due to higher fuel costs, with the average increase in materials prices over that span being 6.7%. 

Nevertheless, based on the positive sentiment from the RMI and structural demand tailwinds, NAHB’s forecast for remodeling spending remains robust both in the short-term and over the long run.

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.” Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three components: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately-sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000).

In the second quarter of 2026, the Current Conditions Index averaged 70, unchanged from the previous quarter. The component measuring moderately-sized remodeling projects increased four points to 73, while the small projects component remained unchanged at 74 and the large projects component decreased three points to 64. 

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two components: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in, and the current backlog of remodeling projects.

In the second quarter of 2026, the Future Indicators Index averaged 52, down two points from the previous quarter. Both components decreased quarter-over-quarter but still remain above the break-even point of 50. The component measuring backlog of remodeling jobs was down two points to 54, while the component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in edged down one point to 51.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Top Ten Builder Market Share Falls in 2025 – Eye On Housing

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The top ten builders accounted for 43.6% of all new U.S. single-family home closings in 2025, down 1.2 percentage points from 2024 (44.8%), based on BUILDER magazine data.

The 2025 share constitutes 295,959 closings out of 679,083 new single-family houses sold in 2025. However, closings by the top ten builders only represent 29.5% of new single-family home completions,  a wider measure of home building that covers not-for-sale home construction. That share is down 0.6 percentage points from 2024 (30.1%), Also of note, the top 15 builders accounted for more than half of all closings (50.1%) for the second consecutive year.

Historically, the market share  for closings among the top ten builders has trended upward, albeit unevenly. Starting in 1989, this share was 8.7% and took approximately a decade  to double to 18.7% in 2000. It achieved a pre-Great Recession peak of 28.2% in 2006   then dropped below that level for about a decade until it reached 31.5% in 2018. After declining in 2019 and 2020, the share rebounded and exceeded 40% for the first time in 2022 (43.5%). A record high was achieved in 2024 (44.8%) before slipping to 43.6% in 2025.

Similar to closings, the trend for completions among the top ten builders has been rising, but with reduced volatility. The share started at 5.6% in 1989 and reached double digits ten years later at 11.3%. It achieved a pre-Great Recession peak of 17.9% in 2006 before falling for two consecutive years. Since 2009, the share has remained on an upward trajectory, breaking the 20% threshold for the first time in 2015 (21.0%). A record high was achieved in 2024 (30.1%), before slipping to 29.5% in 2025.

The top five highest producing builders did not change from 2024 to 2025, with D.R. Horton maintaining its position as America’s largest single-family home builder. D.R. Horton captured 12.8% of the for-sale market with 87,168 closings, marking a fifth consecutive year with a market share above 10%, and the 24th consecutive year atop the list. Nevertheless, this was D.R. Horton lowest share since 2021 (10.7%). Meanwhile, Lennar (the second largest builder) saw its market share in 2025 increase to a series-high of 12.2%. That was only 0.6 percentage points behind D.R. Horton, the closest difference since 2018. Results also show that 2025 marked the fourth year in a row where the top five builders accounted for more than a third (34.8%) of overall closings, with PulteGroup, NVR, and Meritage Homes achieving 4.4%, 3.2%, and 2.2% respectively.

The list of the top ten builders (all publicly traded companies) did not change from 2024 to 2025.  Most of the top ten builders experienced little to no change from 2024 to 2025 in terms of their share of the for-sale market, with the exceptions of D.R. Horton (-0.8 pp) and Lennar (+0.5 pp).

Builder Magazine will release Local Leaders data on the top ten builders in the top 50 largest new-home markets in the U.S. where ranking is determined by the number of single-family permits, which NAHB will analyze in a later post.



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U.S. Labor Market Remains Resilient in May – Eye On Housing

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Despite rising inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty, the U.S. labor market remained resilient in May. Nonfarm payrolls increased for the third consecutive month, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Job gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, while financial activities experienced a decline in payroll employment.

Wage growth moderated in May, with average hourly earnings rising 3.4% year-over-year. This pace is 0.5 percentage points lower than a year ago. Importantly, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, following an upwardly revised gain of 179,000 jobs in April. This marked the third consecutive month of job gains following a period of volatile payroll growth.

Employment gains for the previous two months were revised higher. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised upward by 29,000 from +185,000 to +214,000, while the change for April was revised upward by 64,000 from +115,000 to +179,000. Combined, these revisions added 93,000 more jobs than previously reported.

Job growth in early 2026 has improved notably compared with 2025 but has yet to fully match the pace observed in 2024. Through May, monthly payroll gains have averaged 114,000, compared with 10,000 per month in 2025 and 122,000 per month in 2024.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in May. Over the month, the number of persons unemployed declined by 66,000, while the number of persons employed rose by 149,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—remained unchanged at 61.8%. This marks the lowest level since November 2021 and remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 83.9%.

Job gains in May were slightly more broad-based than in recent months. Employment increased by 70,000 in leisure and hospitality, 55,000 in local government, and 35,000 in health care. In contrast, employment in financial activities declined by 22,000 and has fallen by 107,000 since its recent peak in May 2025. Federal government employment, which experienced a sharp decline last fall, increased modestly by 1,000 jobs in May.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector rose by 17,000 jobs in May, following a gain of 9,000 in April. Within the industry, residential construction added 900 jobs, while non-residential construction added 15,700 jobs.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in May, including 925,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and nearly 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

Despite the monthly gain, residential construction employment continues to show signs of weakness. The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative, reflecting an average monthly loss of 1,300 jobs and declines in three of the past six months. Meanwhile, over the last 12 months, residential construction has shed a net of 33,300 jobs, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual decline and the longest stretch of annual losses since the Great Recession. However, residential construction has gained 1,303,900 positions from its post-Great Recession low.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 5.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, though it remains relatively low compared with historical norms.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Remodeling Market Sentiment Edges Down but Remains Positive in First Quarter – Eye On

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In the first quarter of 2026, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 62, down two points compared to the previous quarter. Despite this decline, the overall reading has been solidly in positive territory since Q1 2020.

Remodeler sentiment remained generally positive in the first quarter, even as many remodelers are still working to manage their customers’ cost expectations. Only a relatively small share report homeowners putting projects on hold due to economic and political uncertainty.

Ongoing positive remodeler sentiment is consistent with NAHB’s outlook, given an aging housing stock and the lock-in effect of elevated mortgage rates keeping owners in the homes longer. In the first quarter, remodelers reported 21% of their projects were associated with home improvements made shortly after a purchase, while only 4% were for homeowners’ projected to ready a home for sale.

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.” Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three components: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately-sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000). In the first quarter of 2026, the Current Conditions Index averaged 70, edging down one point from the previous quarter. All three components remained well above 50 in positive territory. The component measuring small remodeling projects was the only one to experience a quarterly gain, inching up one point to 74. Both the moderate and large remodeling projects components were down two points to 69 and 67, respectively.

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two components: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in, and the current backlog of remodeling projects. 

In the first quarter of 2026, the Future Indicators Index averaged 54, down two points from the previous quarter. Both components decreased quarter-over-quarter but are above the break-even point of 50. The component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in edged down one point to 53, while the component measuring backlog of remodeling jobs dropped three points to 58.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.



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Soft Construction Labor Market Shows Decline for Open Positions – Eye On Housing

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The number of open positions in construction in February was down year-over-year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from three years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing. However, recent gains for nonresidential construction have not fully offset soft conditions for housing with respect to the demand for construction labor.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined in February, falling from 7.24 million in January to 6.88 million in February. The February reading was down from a year ago (7.24 million) due to a cooling labor market.

Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below eight million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to move forward on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below eight million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further.

The number of open construction sector jobs fell, declining slightly from 230,000 in January to 202,000 in February. This total was down compared to a year ago (255,000). The chart below notes the declining trend that has been in place for unfilled construction jobs since the Fed raised the federal funds rate and home building weakened. While home building employment was declining during the second half of 2025, other subsectors of the construction industry have expanded (e.g. data centers). This has produced volatility within a reduced range in the series since 2024.

The construction job openings rate decreased to 2.4% in February, down from the 3% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction declined slightly to 1.8% in February. The quits rate decreased to 1.3% for the month.

The current data looks similar to the much discussed low-hire, low-fire labor market paradigm.



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Job Openings Fall as Labor Market Weakens – Eye On Housing

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Running counter to the data for the full economy, the count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in December, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from two years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined as the labor market weakened at the end of 2025, falling from 6.982 million in November to 6.542 million in December. The December reading was down from a year ago (7.508 million).

Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below eight million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to move forward on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below eight million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further.

The number of open construction sector jobs increased from 284,000 in November to 292,000 in December. This total is higher compared to a year ago (205,000), although the reading is notably lower than two years ago. The chart below notes the declining trend that has been in place for unfilled construction jobs since the Fed raised the federal funds rate and home building weakened. While home building employment was declining during the second half of 2025, other subsectors of the construction industry have expanded (e.g. data centers).

The construction job openings rate increased to 3.4% in December, higher than the 3.2% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction declined to 1.5% in December. The quits increased to 1.5% for the month.



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Remodeling Market Sentiment Strengthens in Fourth Quarter of 2025 – Eye On Housing

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In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 64, increasing four points compared to the previous quarter.

Most remodelers are finding reasonably strong market conditions, even with the normal seasonal slowdown during the holidays.  The major headwinds the industry is experiencing continue to be rising costs and potential customers hesitating due to policy and economic uncertainty.  Demand for remodeling is being supported by an aging housing stock, strong homeowner equity and increasing need for aging-in-place improvements.

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.”  Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three subcomponents: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately-sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000).  In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Current Conditions Index averaged 71, increasing three points from the previous quarter.  All three components increased quarter-over-quarter and remained above the break-even point of 50.  Large remodeling projects saw the largest increase, rising five points to 69, followed by small remodeling projects adding two points to 73, and moderately-sized projects, inching up one point to 70.

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two subcomponents: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in, and the current backlog of remodeling projects. 

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Future Indicators Index averaged 56, up four points from the previous quarter.  Both components increased quarter-over-quarter and are above the break-even point of 50.  The component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in rose five points to 54 while the component measuring backlog of remodeling jobs added two points to 58.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.



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Residential Construction Softens Amid Ongoing Housing Market Headwinds – Eye On Housing

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The latest residential housing market report, delayed by the federal government shutdown last fall, indicates that builders have faced significant headwinds in recent months. Elevated mortgage rates earlier in the year have restrained buyer demand and weighed on home building activity, alongside persistently high construction costs.

Overall housing starts declined 4.6 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.25 million units, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This pace reflects the number of housing units builders would begin over the next 12 months if October’s activity were sustained.

Within the total, single-family starts rose 5.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units but remain 7.8 percent lower than a year earlier. On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are down 7.0 percent. Given recent volatility, the three-month moving average provides a clearer signal, declining to 857,000 units.

In contrast, multifamily starts, which include apartment buildings and condominiums, fell sharply, down 22.0 percent to an annualized pace of 372,000 units. The three-month moving average for multifamily construction has trended lower to 424,000 units, and activity is 7.9 percent below year-ago levels.

Regionally and on a year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts increased 9.1 percent in the Midwest and 8.5 percent in the Northeast, while declining 1.9 percent in the West and 4.1 percent in the South.

The total number of housing units under construction stood at 1.3 million in October, down 10.1 percent from a year earlier. Single-family homes under construction fell to 596,000 units, a 7.0 percent year-over-year decline and the lowest level since November 2020. Multifamily units under construction declined to 790,000, down from peaks above 1 million units in December 2023 and 4.0 percent lower than a year ago.

Completions of single-family homes remained relatively strong at an annual rate of about 1 million units, reflecting continued progress in finishing projects already underway and marking a 2.0 percent increase from a year earlier. Multifamily completions, however, dropped sharply, down 41.7 percent year over year to a 377,000-unit pace. On a year-to-date basis, total completions across both sectors are down 9.2 percent.

Overall building permits edged down 0.2 percent in October to a 1.41-million-unit annualized rate. Single-family permits declined 0.5 percent to 876,000 units and are 9.4 percent lower than a year ago, with year-to-date permits down 7.0 percent. Multifamily permits were essentially unchanged at a 536,000-unit pace compared to the previous month and are up 16.3 percent compared to October 2024. Regionally, year-to-date total permits increased 5.9 percent in the Midwest, while declining 3.3 percent in the West, 4.0 percent in the South, and 9.3 percent in the Northeast.



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Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling in November – Eye On Housing

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In November, job growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in four years. At the same time, job gains for the previous two months (August and September) were revised downward. The November’s jobs report indicates a cooling labor market as the economy heads into the final month of the year.

In November, wage growth slowed, increasing 3.5% year over year, down 0.6 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 64,000 in November. This represents a notable slowdown from September’s revised gain of 108,000 and reflects continued weakness in overall hiring.

August’s growth was revised downward for the second time, from last month’s estimate of -4,000 to -26,000. September job growth was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. Combined, these revisions erased 33,000 jobs from previously reported figures. October data, published for the first time, was not revised.

Through November, average monthly job growth in 2025 stands at just 11,000, well below the 168,000 monthly average recorded in 2024.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, its highest level since September 2021. Compared to September, the number of persons unemployed rose by 228,000, while the number of persons employed increased by 96,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—remained unchanged at 62.4%. This remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate edged up 0.1 percentage points to 83.8%, the highest level since September 2024.

In November, employment gains were seen in health care (+46,000) and construction (+28,000), while the federal government continued to shed jobs. Federal government employment fell by 6,000 positions in November, following a sharp decline of 162,000 in October. Since peaking in January 2025, federal government employment has fallen by a total of 271,000 jobs.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 28,000 in November, after an upwardly revised 25,000 gain in September. Within the industry, residential construction shed 300 jobs, while non-residential construction gained 28,800 positions.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in November, including 958,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and approximately 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative at -3,600 per month, reflecting losses in five of the past six months for June, July, August, October, and November. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has seen a net loss of 42,200 jobs, marking the sixth consecutive annual decline since September 2020. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,334,100 positions.

In November, the unemployment rate for construction workers declined to 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.



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