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Job Openings Fall as Labor Market Weakens – Eye On Housing

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Running counter to the data for the full economy, the count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in December, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from two years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined as the labor market weakened at the end of 2025, falling from 6.982 million in November to 6.542 million in December. The December reading was down from a year ago (7.508 million).

Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below eight million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to move forward on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below eight million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further.

The number of open construction sector jobs increased from 284,000 in November to 292,000 in December. This total is higher compared to a year ago (205,000), although the reading is notably lower than two years ago. The chart below notes the declining trend that has been in place for unfilled construction jobs since the Fed raised the federal funds rate and home building weakened. While home building employment was declining during the second half of 2025, other subsectors of the construction industry have expanded (e.g. data centers).

The construction job openings rate increased to 3.4% in December, higher than the 3.2% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction declined to 1.5% in December. The quits increased to 1.5% for the month.



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Remodeling Market Sentiment Strengthens in Fourth Quarter of 2025 – Eye On Housing

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In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 64, increasing four points compared to the previous quarter.

Most remodelers are finding reasonably strong market conditions, even with the normal seasonal slowdown during the holidays.  The major headwinds the industry is experiencing continue to be rising costs and potential customers hesitating due to policy and economic uncertainty.  Demand for remodeling is being supported by an aging housing stock, strong homeowner equity and increasing need for aging-in-place improvements.

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.”  Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three subcomponents: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately-sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000).  In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Current Conditions Index averaged 71, increasing three points from the previous quarter.  All three components increased quarter-over-quarter and remained above the break-even point of 50.  Large remodeling projects saw the largest increase, rising five points to 69, followed by small remodeling projects adding two points to 73, and moderately-sized projects, inching up one point to 70.

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two subcomponents: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in, and the current backlog of remodeling projects. 

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Future Indicators Index averaged 56, up four points from the previous quarter.  Both components increased quarter-over-quarter and are above the break-even point of 50.  The component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in rose five points to 54 while the component measuring backlog of remodeling jobs added two points to 58.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.



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Residential Construction Softens Amid Ongoing Housing Market Headwinds – Eye On Housing

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The latest residential housing market report, delayed by the federal government shutdown last fall, indicates that builders have faced significant headwinds in recent months. Elevated mortgage rates earlier in the year have restrained buyer demand and weighed on home building activity, alongside persistently high construction costs.

Overall housing starts declined 4.6 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.25 million units, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This pace reflects the number of housing units builders would begin over the next 12 months if October’s activity were sustained.

Within the total, single-family starts rose 5.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units but remain 7.8 percent lower than a year earlier. On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are down 7.0 percent. Given recent volatility, the three-month moving average provides a clearer signal, declining to 857,000 units.

In contrast, multifamily starts, which include apartment buildings and condominiums, fell sharply, down 22.0 percent to an annualized pace of 372,000 units. The three-month moving average for multifamily construction has trended lower to 424,000 units, and activity is 7.9 percent below year-ago levels.

Regionally and on a year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts increased 9.1 percent in the Midwest and 8.5 percent in the Northeast, while declining 1.9 percent in the West and 4.1 percent in the South.

The total number of housing units under construction stood at 1.3 million in October, down 10.1 percent from a year earlier. Single-family homes under construction fell to 596,000 units, a 7.0 percent year-over-year decline and the lowest level since November 2020. Multifamily units under construction declined to 790,000, down from peaks above 1 million units in December 2023 and 4.0 percent lower than a year ago.

Completions of single-family homes remained relatively strong at an annual rate of about 1 million units, reflecting continued progress in finishing projects already underway and marking a 2.0 percent increase from a year earlier. Multifamily completions, however, dropped sharply, down 41.7 percent year over year to a 377,000-unit pace. On a year-to-date basis, total completions across both sectors are down 9.2 percent.

Overall building permits edged down 0.2 percent in October to a 1.41-million-unit annualized rate. Single-family permits declined 0.5 percent to 876,000 units and are 9.4 percent lower than a year ago, with year-to-date permits down 7.0 percent. Multifamily permits were essentially unchanged at a 536,000-unit pace compared to the previous month and are up 16.3 percent compared to October 2024. Regionally, year-to-date total permits increased 5.9 percent in the Midwest, while declining 3.3 percent in the West, 4.0 percent in the South, and 9.3 percent in the Northeast.



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Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling in November – Eye On Housing

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In November, job growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in four years. At the same time, job gains for the previous two months (August and September) were revised downward. The November’s jobs report indicates a cooling labor market as the economy heads into the final month of the year.

In November, wage growth slowed, increasing 3.5% year over year, down 0.6 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 64,000 in November. This represents a notable slowdown from September’s revised gain of 108,000 and reflects continued weakness in overall hiring.

August’s growth was revised downward for the second time, from last month’s estimate of -4,000 to -26,000. September job growth was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. Combined, these revisions erased 33,000 jobs from previously reported figures. October data, published for the first time, was not revised.

Through November, average monthly job growth in 2025 stands at just 11,000, well below the 168,000 monthly average recorded in 2024.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, its highest level since September 2021. Compared to September, the number of persons unemployed rose by 228,000, while the number of persons employed increased by 96,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—remained unchanged at 62.4%. This remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate edged up 0.1 percentage points to 83.8%, the highest level since September 2024.

In November, employment gains were seen in health care (+46,000) and construction (+28,000), while the federal government continued to shed jobs. Federal government employment fell by 6,000 positions in November, following a sharp decline of 162,000 in October. Since peaking in January 2025, federal government employment has fallen by a total of 271,000 jobs.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 28,000 in November, after an upwardly revised 25,000 gain in September. Within the industry, residential construction shed 300 jobs, while non-residential construction gained 28,800 positions.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in November, including 958,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and approximately 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative at -3,600 per month, reflecting losses in five of the past six months for June, July, August, October, and November. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has seen a net loss of 42,200 jobs, marking the sixth consecutive annual decline since September 2020. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,334,100 positions.

In November, the unemployment rate for construction workers declined to 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.



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Construction Labor Market Stable – Eye On Housing

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The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry was relatively unchanged in October, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from two years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy was effectively unchanged, increasing from 7.66 million in September to 7.67 million in October. The October reading was was relatively unchanged from the 7.62 million estimate from a year ago.

Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to move forward on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below 8 million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further.

The number of open construction sector jobs decreased from 231,000 in September to 213,000 in October. This total is relatively stable compared to a year ago (249,000), although the reading is notably lower than two years ago. The chart below notes the declining trend that has been in place for unfilled construction jobs since the Fed raised the federal funds rate and home building weakened.

The construction job openings rate declined to 2.5% in October, lower than the 2.9% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction declined to 1.8% in October. The quits rate edged lower to 1.4% in October.



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September Jobs Report Highlights a Cooling but Still Growing Labor Market – Eye On Housing

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The long-delayed September jobs report revealed that the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in nearly four years. Combined with downward revisions to previous months, this month’s data indicates a slowing of the U.S. labor market, though one that is still expanding. With the October jobs report cancelled due to the government shutdown and November’s report not scheduled for release until December 16, this September report now stands as the Federal Reserve’s final look at labor market conditions before its December meeting.

In September, wages grew at a 3.8% pace year over year, matching August’s increase. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

The September jobs report was delayed by more than six weeks due to the federal government shutdown. According to the long-awaited Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 119,000 in September, following a downwardly revised loss of 4,000 jobs in August. August’s growth was revised down by 26,000, from an initial estimate of +22,000 to -4,000, marking the second month of negative job growth since January 2010. July’s job growth was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000. Combined, the revisions erased 33,000 jobs from previously reported figures.

Through September, monthly job growth in 2025 has averaged 76,000, a significant slowdown compared to the 168,000 monthly average gain for 2024.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, its highest level in nearly four years. The number of persons unemployed rose by 219,000 and the number of persons employed increased by 251,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%. This remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate remained steady at 83.7%, the highest level since October 2024.

In September, employment gains were seen in health care (+43,000), food services and drinking places (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000), while the transportation and warehousing sector and the federal government experienced job losses. Federal government employment fell by 3,000 positions in September and has now shed a total of 97,000 positions since peaking in January 2025. The BLS notes that “employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.”

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 19,000 in September, after three consecutive months of job losses. Within the industry, residential construction added 3,100 jobs, while non-residential construction gained 16,300 positions.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in September, including 954,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative at -3,767 per month, reflecting losses in four of the past six months for May through August 2025. Over the last 12 months, residential construction has seen a net loss of 44,900 jobs, marking the fifth consecutive annual decline since September 2020. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,340,000 positions.

In September, the unemployment rate for construction workers jumped to 5.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.



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Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist – Eye On Housing

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Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation. We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment. After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions  in marginally positive territory.

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in November, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 65% in November, tying the share in September and October.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 41, the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point gain to 26.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 48, the Midwest fell one point to 41, the South increased three points to 34 and the West gained two points to 30. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.



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Market Share for Modular and Other Non-Site Built Housing in 2024

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The total market share of non-site built single-family homes (modular and panelized) was just 3% of single-family homes in 2024, according to completion data from the Census Bureau Survey of Construction data and NAHB analysis. This is the same as the 3% share in 2023. This share has been steadily declining since the early-2000s despite the high-level of interest for non-site built construction. This low market share in fact runs counter to some media commentary on off-site construction suggesting recent gains. Nonetheless, there exists potential for market share gains in the years ahead due to the need to increase productivity in the residential construction sector.

In 2024, there were 28,000 total single-family units built using modular (13,000) and panelized/pre-cut (15,000) construction methods, out of a total of 1,019,000 single-family homes completed. It is worth noting that the Census definitions of off-site construction are relatively narrow. In a separate survey, the Home Innovation Research Labs Survey of U.S. Home Builders has a higher share for panelized construction (5-12%) due to a wider definition of “panelized” construction.

While the Census-measured market share is small, there exists potential for expansion. This 3% market share for 2024 represents a decline from years prior to the Great Recession. In 1998, 7% of single-family completions were modular (4%) or panelized (3%). This marked the largest share for the 1992-2024 period.

One notable regional concentration is found in the Midwest and the Northeast. These two regions have the highest market share of homes built using non-site build methods. In the Midwest, 7% (8,000 homes) of the region’s 136,000 housing units were completed using these methods. In the Northeast, 5% (3,000 homes) of the region’s 66,000 housing units were completed using non-site build methods. However, numerically, the South continues to be the biggest market for this type of construction where 13,000 homes were built using non-site build methods.

With respect to multifamily construction, approximately 3% of multifamily buildings (properties, not units) were built using modular and panelized methods. This is significantly lower than the 7% share in 2023 but on par with the average for the last 5 years. It is notable that modular construction method accounted for 2% of this share. In previous years it was only panelized construction methods that made up the higher share of non-site build methods in multifamily construction. Prior to last year, the highest levels of modular and panelized methods share in multifamily construction was in 2000 and 2011, where 5% of multifamily buildings were constructed with modular (1%) or panelized construction methods (4%).

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Market Flip: Existing Homes Outprice New Homes

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In the second quarter of 2025, the median price for a new single-family home was $410,800, which was $18,600 lower than the median price of existing homes, which stood at $429,400. This marks the largest historical gap where existing home prices exceeded those of new homes, according to U.S. Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors data (not seasonally adjusted – NSA) 

Typically, new homes carry a price premium over existing homes. From 2010 to 2019, this pattern held steady, with an average difference of $66,000. However, over the past five years, the gap has narrowed significantly, averaging just $24,800. Notably, this trend reversed in 2024. In both the second and third quarters, the median price of existing homes surpassed that of new homes. 

Both new and existing homes saw dramatic increases in prices post-pandemic due to higher construction costs and limited supply. While overall home prices remain elevated compared to historical norms, new homes prices have moderated due to tactical builder business decisions, whereas existing homes prices continue to increase because of lean supply and perhaps a lack of price discovery for existing homeowners. 

Indeed, the median price for a new single-family home sold in the second quarter of 2025 decreased 0.9% from the previous year. New home prices have continued to experience year-over-year declines for nine consecutive quarters.  

Meanwhile, the median price for existing single-family homes increased 1.7% from one year ago. Existing home prices have continued to experience year-over-year increases for eight consecutive quarters. 

There are several factors as to why new and existing homes are selling at similar price points. Tight inventory continues to push up prices for existing homes, as many homeowners who secured low mortgage rates during the pandemic are hesitant to sell due to current high interest rates.  

Meanwhile, new home pricing is more volatile – prices change due to the types and locations of homes being built. Despite various challenges facing the industry, home builders are adapting to affordability challenges by building on smaller lots, constructing smaller homes, and offering incentives. Additionally, there has been a shift in home building toward the South, associated with less expensive homes because of policy effects.  

Moreover, the least expensive region for new homes in the first quarter was the South, with a median price of $372,100. The Midwest followed closely behind at $385,300. For existing homes, the Midwest was the most affordably region at $328,800, followed by the South at $376,300. 

New homes were most expensive in the Northeast with a median price of $796,700, while the West sold at $531,100. For existing homes, the West led as the most expensive region at $646,100 homes, followed by Northeast at $646,100.  

The new home price premium was most pronounced in the Northeast, where new homes sold for $269,500 more than existing homes. The West and South followed the national trend, with existing homes priced $4,200 more than new homes in the West and $115,000 more in the South. 

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Market Share of 5,000+ Square Foot New Homes Started Declines in 2024

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In 2024, there were 24,000 homes that exceeded 5,000 square feet, equating to a 2.3% market share of all new homes started. Both the number and market share for 5,000+ square foot homes experienced declines from 2023, according to the annual data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC).

The number of homes started in 2024 exceeding 5,000 square feet dropped to 24,000, a decrease from 26,000 in 2023. In 2006, the number of new 5,000+ square foot homes reached a peak of 45,000. This number proceeded to drop during the Great Recession and hit a low of 11,000 in 2009. Since 2013, the number has remained consistently above 20,000, with a recent peak of 33,000 in 2021.

Of the total number of new homes started in 2024, 2.3% had 5,000+ square feet or more of finished space, down from 2.8% in 2023.  The decline marks the third consecutive drop in the share of homes this size, down from a recent peak of 2.9% in 2021.  In 2015, the 5,000+ square foot share reached a record high of 3.9%.  Since then, it has fluctuated between 2.3% and 3.1%.

Tabulating the major characteristics of 5,000+ square foot homes started in 2024, the data show 83% have a porch, 79% have a finished basement, 71% have a patio, 69% have four or more bathrooms, 66% have a 3-or-more car garage, 54% have five bedrooms or more, and 50% belong to a community association.

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