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Existing Home Sales Fell in March – Eye On Housing

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Existing home sales fell to a nine-month low in March as tight inventory, rising mortgage rates and growing concerns about the job market constrained sales activity. While inventory has improved in recent months, it remains below historical norms, continuing to push home prices higher as demand outpaces supply. Meanwhile, the Iran war has reversed the downward trend in mortgage rates, which jumped from 5.98% before the conflict to 6.37% last week. These headwinds will likely dampen home sales while tight inventory continues to drive home prices higher, further worsening housing affordability.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in March, the lowest level since June 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On a year-over-year basis, sales were 1.0% lower than a year ago.

The existing home inventory level was 1.4 million units in March, up 3.0% from February and 2.3% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, March unsold inventory sits at a 4.1-months’ supply, up from 3.8-months in February and 4.0-months a year ago. Inventory between 4.5 to 6 months’ supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Homes stayed on the market for a median of 41 days in March, down from 47 days in the previous month and 36 days in March 2025.

The first-time buyer share was 32% in March, down from 34% in February and unchanged from a year ago.

The March all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, down from 31% in February but up slightly from 26% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The March median sales price of all existing homes was $408,800, up 1.4% from last year. This marks the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in March was up 2.3% from a year ago at $371,500. Recent gains for home inventory will put downward pressure on resale home prices in most markets in 2026.

All four major regions saw sales declines in March, ranging from 1.3% in the West to 8.5% in the Northeast. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the West (+1.3%) and South (+2.2%), while sales in the Midwest and Northeast declined (-3.2% and 12.2% respectively).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.8 to 72.1 in February due to improved affordability. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 0.8% lower than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors’ data. However, resurgence in mortgage rates driven by the Iran war could reverse the increase.



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Inflation Surged to a Nearly Two-Year High in March – Eye On Housing

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Consumer prices surged to a nearly two-year high in March, driven by a spike in energy costs following the onset of the Iran war. This is the first CPI report to reflect the impact of the war, with inflation rising nearly a full percentage point from February. National gasoline average prices in March soared above $4 for the first time since August 2022, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain in inflation and marking the largest monthly increase in the gasoline index since government began tracking in 1967. As the ceasefire remains tenuous, energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months, continuing to put upward pressure on inflation and complicating the Fed’s path toward its 2% target.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% in March from a year ago, following a 2.4% increase last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. This was the largest annual increase since May 2024. The “core” CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased by 2.6% over the past twelve months, following a 2.5% increase in February. The housing shelter index, which makes up a large portion of “core” CPI, rose 3.0% over the year, holding steady over the last two months. Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 2.7%, and the energy component index increased by 12.5%, the largest annual increase since November 2022.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.9% in March (seasonally adjusted), and the “core” CPI increased by 0.2%.

The price index for a broad set of energy sources rose by 10.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005, with increases in fuel oil (+30.7%), gasoline (+21.2%), and electricity (+0.8%), partially offset by a decline in natural gas (-0.9%). Fuel oil posted its largest monthly increase since February 2000. Meanwhile, the food at home index fell by 0.2%, while the food away from home index increased by 0.2% in March.

Outside of energy, the index for shelter was the largest contributor to the overall monthly increase in the all items index. Other top contributors that rose in March included indexes for airline fares (+2.7%), apparel (+1.0%), household furnishings and operations (+0.2%), education (+0.3%), and new vehicles (+0.1%). Meanwhile, the index for medical care (-0.2%), personal care (-0.5%) and used cars and trucks (-0.4%) were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The index for shelter, which makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.3% in March. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) rose by 0.3%, while the index for rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.2% over the month.

NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components). In March, the Real Rent Index remained unchanged.



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Job Growth Rebounds in March – Eye On Housing

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The U.S. labor market showed signs of a modest rebound in March following a weak February, as payroll employment increased and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Job growth was led by healthcare, construction, and transportation and warehousing. However, signs of cooling are emerging. Job openings posted their largest decline in nearly a year and a half in February, pointing to a potential easing in labor demand. Meanwhile, growing geopolitical uncertainty adds further downside risk to the labor market outlook.

Wage growth slowed in March, with average hourly earnings rising 3.5% year-over-year. This pace is 0.7 percentage points lower than a year ago. Importantly, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, following a downwardly revised decline of 133,000 jobs in February. Revisions to prior months were modest overall. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 34,000 from +126,000 to +160,000, while the change for February was revised down by 41,000 from -92,000 to -133,000. Combined, these revisions reduced previously reported employment by 7,000 jobs.

Despite March’s rebound, job growth in early 2026 remains well below 2024 levels but better than the 2025 pace. Through March, monthly payroll gains have averaged 68,000, compared with 10,000 per month in 2025 and 122,000 in 2024.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February. Over the month, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 332,000, while the number of persons employed declined by 64,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—declined 0.2 percentage points to 61.9%. This marks the lowest level since December 2021 and remains below its pre-pandemic level of 63.3% recorded at the beginning of 2020. Among prime working-age individuals (aged 25 to 54), the participation rate also edged down to 83.8%.

In March, job gains were led by health care (+76,000), construction (+26,000), and transportation and warehousing (+21,000), while federal government employment continued to decline. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment has fallen by 355,000, or 11.8%.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector rose by 26,000 jobs in March, following a downwardly revised loss of 13,000 in February. Within the industry, residential construction added 14,300 jobs, while non-residential construction increased 12,200.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in March, including 932,000 workers employed by builders and remodelers and nearly 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors.

The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction turned positive at 800 per month, ending a 14-month stretch of negative readings. However, over the last 12 months, residential construction has shed a net 29,300 jobs, marking the thirteenth consecutive annual decline and the longest stretch of annual losses since the Great Recession. Despite these declines, residential construction has gained 1,318,200 positions from its post-Great Recession low.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 5.6% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, though it remains relatively low compared with historical norms.



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Permit Activity Declines in March 2025

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Permits continue a downhill trend for the third month in a row. Over the first three months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 232,221. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 3.8% over the March 2024 level of 241311. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 113,344. This is 3.7% below the March 2024 level of 117,695.

Year-to-date ending in March, single-family permits were down in three out of the four regions. The Northeast posted an increase of 9.2%. The Midwest was down by 1.9%, the South was down by 4.8%, and the West was down by 5.0% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, two out of the four regions posted increases. The South was up by 14.6% and the Midwest was up by 12.9%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 13.0% and the Northeast declined steeply by 42.8%.

Between March 2025 YTD and March 2024 YTD, 20 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 29.6% in Alaska to 0.2% in Utah. The remaining 30 states and the District of Columbia reported declines in single-family permits with New Mexico reporting the steepest decline of 32.7%.

The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 64.3% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 38,425 permits over the first three months 2025, which is a decline of 5.5% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 8.8%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted a decline of 0.1%.

Between March 2025 YTD and March 2024 YTD, 23 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 27 states recorded a decline. Alaska (+533.3%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 12 to 76, while New York had the biggest decline of 64.8% from 11,316 to 3,984.

The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 61.7% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first three months of 2025, Florida, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced an increase of 48.8%. Texas, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, saw a decline of 0.5%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 22.7%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Personal Income Rises 0.5% in March

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Personal income increased by 0.5% in March, following a 0.7% rise in February and a 0.6% gain in January, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The gains in personal income were largely driven by higher wages and salaries. However, the pace of personal income growth slowed from its peak monthly gain of 1.4% in January 2024.

Real disposable income, the amount remaining after adjusted for taxes and inflation, inched up 0.5% in March, following a 0.4% increase in February and 0.2% gain in January. On a year-over-year basis, real (inflation-adjusted) disposable income rose 1.7%, down from a 6.5% year-over-year peak recorded in June 2023. No adjustments were made to personal income for the federal employees’ deferred resignation program in March, as participants are still considered as employed and continue to receive compensations until their official separation from the federal government.

Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.7% in March, building on a 0.5% increase in February. Real spending, adjusted to remove inflation, increased 0.7% in March, with expenditures on goods climbing 1.3% and spending on services up 0.4%.

As spending outpaced personal income growth, the personal savings rate dipped to 3.9% in March. With inflation eroding compensation gains, people are dipping into savings to support spending. This trend will ultimately lead to a slowing of consumer spending.

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March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips

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Private residential construction spending declined by 0.4% in March, largely driven by a decrease in home improvement spending. This decline followed five consecutive months of growth. Despite the monthly drop, spending remained 2.8% higher than a year ago, showing the resilience of the housing market.

According to the latest U.S Census Construction Spending data, improvement spending declined by 1.2% in March, aligned with the weakness in the Remodeling Market Sentiment of the first quarter of 2025. Still, spending on improvements was 13.4% higher than in March of 2024. Meanwhile, spending on single-family construction edged up by 0.1% in March, continuing its growth after a five-month decline from April to August 2024. However, single-family construction spending remained 0.8% lower than a year ago. Multifamily construction spending stayed unchanged in March, staying in the downward trends that began in December 2023. Compared to March 2024, it was down 12.1%.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates and concerns over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 1.6% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of power ($8.7 billion), followed by the manufacturing category ($8.1 billion).

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Existing Home Sales Receded in March

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Existing home sales declined in March, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), as affordability challenges continued to weigh on the market. For the first time, the median home price surpassed $400,000 for the month of March, underscoring the ongoing pressure on prospective buyers. While mortgage rates have eased slightly, persistent economic uncertainty may continue to limit buyer activity in the near term.

While existing home inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. These prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, declined 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.4% lower than a year ago.

The share of first-time buyers rose to 32% in March, up from 31% in February and unchanged from March 2024.

The existing home inventory level was 1.33 million units in March, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, March unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-months’ supply, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 36 days in March, down from 42 days in February but up from 33 days in March 2024.

The March all-cash sales share was 26% of transactions, down from 32% in February and 28% a year ago.

The March median sales price of all existing homes was $403,700, up 2.7% from last year. This marked the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in March was up 1.5% from a year ago at $363,000. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

In March, existing home sales declined across all four major U.S. regions. The West experienced the steepest drop, with sales falling 9.4%, followed by the South (-5.7%), the Midwest (-5.0%), and the Northeast (-2.0%). On a year-over-year basis, sales rose slightly in the West by 1.3%, declined in the South and Midwest by 4.2% and 3.1% respectively, and remained unchanged in the Northeast.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 70.6 to an all-time low of 67.3 in February. This decline suggests elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates continue to constrain affordability. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 9.9% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

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New Home Sales Rise in March

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A modest decline in mortgage rates and lean existing inventory helped boost new home sales in March even as builders and consumers contend with uncertain market conditions.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in March increased 7.4% to a 724,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a revised January number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in March was up 6.0% compared to a year earlier.

The March new home sales data shows that demand continues to be present in the market, provided affordability conditions permit a purchase. An increase in economic certainty would be a big boost to future sales conditions. Lower mortgage interest rates helped boost the pace of new home sales in March. In February, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.84%, while in March it fell to 6.65%.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the March reading of 724,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in March continued to rise to a level of 503,000, up 7.9% compared to a year earlier. This represents an 8.3 months’ supply at the current building pace. This level of supply continues to be reasonable given that the resale, single-family months’ supply remains lean at just 3.4. The count of completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale increased to 119,000, up 34% from a year ago.

However, the March data also is showing signs that the total amount of inventory in the new construction space has slowed given soft housing conditions at the start of 2025. For example, the count of new homes available for sale that are under construction (263,000 in March) is down 5% year-over-year and 6% lower than the non-seasonally adjusted peak count set in October 2024.

The median new home sale price in March was $403,600, down 7.5% from a year ago. Sales were particularly strong at lower price levels. Compared to March 2024, new homes sales were 33% higher for homes priced below $300,000 and 28% higher for new homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 12.9% in the South, but are down 32% in the Northeast, 18.3% in the Midwest and 6% in the West.

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State-Level Employment Situation: March 2025

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Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 37 states and the District of Columbia in March compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 12 states. Wyoming reported no change during this time. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in March following a gain of 117,000 jobs in February.

On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in Texas, which added 26,500 jobs. Pennsylvania came in second (+20,900), followed by Florida (+18,100). Meanwhile, a total of 33,900 jobs were lost across 12 states, with California reporting the steepest job losses at 11,600. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in Missouri at 0.5%, while Connecticut saw the biggest decline at 0.3% between February and March.

Year-over-year ending in March, 1.9 million jobs have been added to the labor market, which is a 1.2% increase compared to the March 2024 level. The range of job gains spanned from 300 jobs in the District of Columbia to 192,100 jobs in Texas. Four states lost a total of 34,700 jobs in the past 12 months, with Iowa reporting the steepest job losses at 11,800. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 2.6% in Idaho to 0.1% in Colorado. The District of Columbia was unchanged while West Virginia, Massachusetts, Arizona, and Iowa declined by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.7% respectively.

Construction Employment

Across the nation, construction sector jobs data —which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 30 states reported an increase in March compared to February, while 17 states and the District of Columbia lost construction sector jobs. The three remaining states reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Texas, with the highest increase, added 8,500 construction jobs, while California, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 3,700 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 13,000 jobs in March compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Kentucky reported the highest increase at 3.6% and Mississippi reported the largest decline at 3.4%.

Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 143,000, which is a 1.8% increase compared to the March 2024 level. Texas added 28,700 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while California lost 23,400 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, New Mexico had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 12.0%. Over this period, Washington reported the largest decline of 5.3%.

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Inflation Cooled in March

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Inflation slowed to a 6-month low in March, largely driven by lower energy costs, especially in gasoline prices. Despite the easing, the report likely only captures part of the first wave of global tariffs announcement. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and escalating trade war continues to threaten the economic growth and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, while housing inflation remains elevated, it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a seven straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since November 2021.

While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. In fact, tight monetary policy hurts housing supply because it increases the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise at an elevated pace despite Fed policy tightening. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation and with it, overall inflation. This emphasizes why the cost of construction, including the cost of building materials, matters not just for housing but also the inflation outlook and the path of future monetary policy.

Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. Proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, suggesting a more gradual easing cycle with a slightly higher terminal federal funds rate. However, economic growth could also be higher with lower regulatory burdens. Given the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates, a higher inflation path could extend the affordability crisis and constrain housing supply as builders continue to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges.

During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. This followed a 2.8% year-over-year increase in February. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 2.8% over the past twelve months, the smallest increase since March 2021. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 4.0% over the year, the smallest year-over-year increase since November 2021.  Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 3.0%, and the energy component index fell by 3.3%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 0.1% in March (seasonally-adjusted), after a 0.2% increase in February. This was the first time the monthly CPI has fallen since May 2020. The “core” CPI increased by 0.1% in March.

The price index for a broad set of energy sources fell by 2.4% in March, with declines in gasoline (-6.3%) offset by increases in electricity (+0.9%) andnatural gas (+3.6%). Meanwhile, the food index rose 0.4%, after a 0.2% increase in February. The index for food away from home increased by 0.4% and the index for food at home rose by 0.5%.

Despite the overall monthly CPI decline, several indexes increased in March including personal care (+1.0%), medical care (+0.2%), education (+0.4%), apparel (+0.4%), as well as new vehicles (+0.1%). Meanwhile, the index for airline fares (-5.3%), used cars and trucks (-0.7%) and recreation (-0.3%) were among the major indexes that decreased over the month.

The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.2% in March, following an increase of 0.3% in February. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) rose by 0.4% and index for rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.3% over the month. Despite the moderation, shelter costs remained the largest contributors to headline inflation. 

NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components).

In March, the Real Rent Index rose by 0.3%. Over the first three months of 2025, the monthly growth rate of the Real Rent Index averaged at 0.1%, higher than 0.0% from the same period in 2024.

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