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State-Level Employment Situation: July 2025

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Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 30 states and the District of Columbia in July compared to the previous month, while decreasing in 20 states. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 in July, falling short of expectations and following significant downward revisions to the previous two months’ figures.

On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in New York, which added 55,500 jobs. Missouri came in second (+17,100), followed by California (+15,000). Meanwhile, a total of 37,100 jobs were lost across 20 states, with Utah reporting the steepest job losses at 5,200. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in Missouri at 0.6%, while Wyoming saw the largest decline at 0.5% between June and July.

Year-over-year ending in July, 1.5 million jobs have been added to the labor market, which is a 1.0% increase compared to the July 2024 level. The range of job gains spanned from 400 jobs in Montana to 232,500 jobs in Texas. Two states and the District of Columbia lost a total of 8,900 jobs in the past 12 months, with the District of Columbia reporting the steepest job losses at 4,200. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 0.1% in Montana to 3.4% in South Carolina. The range of job losses in Maine, Iowa, and the District of Columbia spanned 0.2%-0.5%.

Construction Employment

Across the nation, construction sector jobs data —which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 22 states reported an increase in July compared to June, while 22 states lost construction sector jobs. The six remaining states and the District of Columbia reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Colorado, with the highest increase, added 3,800 construction jobs, while California, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 3,300 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 2,000 jobs in July compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Oregon reported the highest increase at 2.6% and Wyoming reported the largest decline at 3.4%.

Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 96,000, which is a 1.2% increase compared to the July 2024 level. Texas added 27,000 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while California lost 18,200 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, New Mexico had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 14.3%. During this period, New Jersey reported the largest decline of 4.9%.

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Building Material Prices Rise in July

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Prices for residential building materials rose again in July, marking the largest year-over-year increase in over two years. The underlying price growth trend remained the same, with service prices continuing to grow at a faster pace than goods prices. Similar to last month, parts for construction machinery and metal molding/trim experienced significant price growth, as both increased over 25% compared to last year.

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—rose 0.2% in July, following a 0.8% increase in June. These figures are taken from the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services; this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports.

The inputs to the new residential construction price index grew 2.8% from July of last year. The index can be broken into two components­—the goods component increased 2.4% over the year, while services increased 3.3%. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 3.3% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 1.9% and final demand for services up 4.0%.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. On a monthly basis, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 0.4% in July.

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring remaining goods. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

Energy input prices jumped up 3.9% between June and July but were 8.1% lower than one year ago. Building material prices were up 0.2% between June and July and up 3.3% compared to one year ago.

Tariffs on building materials do not directly show up in the PPI data because the PPI measures prices for domestically produced goods and services. In fact, tariffs and taxes are explicitly excluded from the PPI. Despite this, price changes in reaction to tariffs are included in the PPI, meaning price increases to pass on increased costs of materials will show up in this pricing data.  Announced tariffs in recent months have resulted in material increases across a few different goods, specifically certain metal products and equipment.

In July, the largest year-over-year input price increase was for construction machinery and equipment parts, reporting a 31.4% increase over the year. Meanwhile, metal molding and trim prices were up 25.6%, fabricated steel plate prices were up 14.3%, and nonferrous wire/cable up 10.5%. Metal commodities have been the primary targets of tariffs, with 50% tariffs in effect on steel and aluminum products and a 50% tariff on semifinished products of copper.

Input Services

Prices for service inputs to residential construction reported a decrease of 0.2% in July. On a year-over-year basis, service input prices are up 3.3%. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component (other services).

 The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by other services (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was up 5.2% from a year ago. The other services component was up 1.2% over the year.  Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services fell 0.6% compared to July of last year.

Inputs to New Construction Satellite Data

Within the PPI that BLS publishes, new experimental data was recently published regarding inputs to new construction. The data expands existing inputs to industry indexes by incorporating import prices with prices for domestically produced goods and services. With this additional data, users can track how industry input costs are changing among domestically produced products and imported products. This data focuses on new construction, but the complete dataset includes indices across numerous industries that can be found here on the BLS website.

New construction input prices are primarily influenced by domestically produced goods and services, with domestic products accounting for 90% of the weight of the industry index for new construction. Imported goods make up the remaining 10% of the index.

The latest available data, for May 2025, showed that domestically produced goods have experienced faster price growth compared to imported goods used in new construction. On a year-over-year basis, the index for domestic goods increased 1.6%, while prices for imported goods rose 0.1% over the same period. Comparatively, service prices have risen more than good prices over the past year, rising 2.7% year-over-year. Across the three indexes, all inputs remain at higher levels compared to pre-pandemic prices.

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Mortgage Applications Tick Up in July as Rates Ease Slightly

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Mortgage application activity picked up in July as interest rates eased modestly. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, which tracks mortgage application volume, rose 2.4% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared to July 2024, total applications were up 24.5%.

The average contract rate for 30-year fixed mortgages edged down by 4 basis points to 6.8%. While refinancing increased by 7.4%, purchase applications slipped 1.2% as high home prices and mortgage rates continued to keep homebuyers on the sideline. Year-over-year, the 30-year rate was 6 basis points lower, with purchase and refinance applications up 19.6% and 32.2%, respectively.

Loan sizes continued to trend downward for the third consecutive month. The average loan amount across all loan types declined 1.7% to $376,500. Purchase loan sizes fell 2.5% to $428,800, while refinance loans increased 3.0% to $299,300. Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loan sizes saw the largest decline among all loan types, falling 6.6% to $957,500 from $1.03 million.   

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Mortgage Rates Decline in July; Treasury Yields Rise Mid-Month

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Average mortgage rates dipped in July, according to Freddie Mac. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.72%, 10 basis points (bps) lower than June. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 9 bps to average at 5.86%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is down 13 basis points (bps), and the 15-year rate is 28 bps lower.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.37% in July – a 6 bps decline from the previous month. Yields began the month lower but reversed course and rose steadily as investor expectations solidified that the Federal Reserve would maintain its current policy stance. These expectations were driven by economic data showing an uptick in inflation while the economy and labor market remained solid.

On July 30, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) solidified market expectations by voting to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. However, just days later, the July employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, August 1, showed downward revisions to job gains in May and June. In response, yields fell to around 4.2% as investors perceived an increased likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September.

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Builder Confidence Edges Up in July

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Builder confidence for future sales expectations received a slight boost in July with the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, but elevated interest rates and economic and policy uncertainty continue to act as headwinds for the housing sector.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 33 in July, up one point from June, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.

The July HMI survey revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in July, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure on a monthly basis in 2022. This compares with 37% of builders who reported cutting prices in June, 34% in May and 29% in April. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in July, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 62% in July, unchanged from June.

Consistent with ongoing weakness for the HMI, single-family housing starts will post a decline in 2025 due to ongoing housing affordability challenges per the latest NAHB forecast. Single-family permits are down 6% on a year-to-date basis and builder traffic in the HMI is at a more than two-year low.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose one point in July to a level of 36 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point decline to 20, the lowest reading since end of 2022.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 45, the Midwest held steady at 41, the South dropped three points to 30 and the West declined three points to 25.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

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Single-Family Permits Up in July 2024

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Over the first seven months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 599,308. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 13.7% over the July 2023 level of 527,158.

Year-to-date ending in July, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 18.2% in the West to 9.8% in the Northeast. The Midwest was up by 14.5% and the South was up by 12.4% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York was the only region to post an increase and was up by 32.0%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 31.2%, the South declined by 22.7%, and the Midwest declined by 9.3%.

Between July 2024 YTD and July 2023 YTD, 47 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 39.4% in Arizona to 2.1% in Rhode Island. New Hampshire (-0.2%), Hawaii (-2.7%), and Alaska (-10.4%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 64.0% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 97,551 permits over the first seven months of 2024, which is an increase of 15.6% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 9.5%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 11.8%.

Year-to-date ending in July, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 279,618. This is 17.2% below the July 2023 level of 337,730.

Between July 2024 YTD and July 2023 YTD, 18 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+117.4%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 10,110 to 21,981, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 68.7% from 1,969 to 616. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 64.7% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first seven months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 30.4%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 24.4%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 27.5%.

At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits.

For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.

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Private Residential Construction Spending Inches Down in July

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Private residential construction spending fell 0.4% in July, according to the Census Construction Spending data. Nevertheless, spending remained 7.7% higher compared to a year ago. The monthly decline in total private construction spending for July was largely due to reduced spending on single-family construction. Spending on single-family construction plunged by 1.9% in July, following a dip of 1.1% in June. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Elevated mortgage interest rates have cooled the housing market, dampening home builder confidence and new home starts. Despite these challenges, spending on single-family construction was still 4% higher than it was a year earlier.

Multifamily construction spending stayed flat in July after a dip of 0.6% in June. Year-over-year, spending on multifamily construction declined 6.7%, as an elevated level of apartments under construction is being completed. Private residential improvement spending increased 1.2% in July and was 18.3% higher compared to a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000). The index illustrates how spending on single-family construction has slowed down the pace since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates. Multifamily construction spending growth slowed down after the peak in July 2023, while improvement spending increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 4.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($39.7 billion), followed by the power category ($1 billion).

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Surprise Lift for New Home Sales in July

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Sales of new homes rose unexpectedly in July, following significant revisions in the previous months data.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in July rose 10.6% to a 739,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from significant upward revisions in June, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in July is up 5.6% from a year earlier. After the notably higher revisions for the May and June data, new home sales from January through July of 2024 are up 2.6% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. 

While mortgage rates moved lower in July, the Census estimated gains for new home sales do not match recent industry survey data including the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which showed weakness in the current sales index. The Census estimate of new home sales is often volatile and subject to revisions, and it is possible that the July estimate for sales will be revised lower next month. NAHB is forecasting gradual improvements for the home building sector as the Fed eases monetary policy and mortgage interest rates trend lower.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the July reading of 739,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in July ticked lower to a level of 462,000, down 1.1% from the previous month. Only 16.7% of inventory available for purchase consists of completed, ready-to-occupy homes (102,000), although this inventory component is up 44% from a year ago.

The total new home inventory level represents a 7.5 months’ supply at the current building pace. While this reduced level of months’ supply is above the commonly used balance measure of 6, the measure of total home inventory is lower. Given a lean level of resale inventory, total home inventory (new and existing) is near 4.5, which remains low.

The median new home price was $429,800, up 3.1% compared to last month, and a 1.4% decrease from this time last year.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 5.4% in the Northeast, 22.1% in the Midwest and 6.1% in the West. New home sales are down 2.4% in the South.

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Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in July

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Existing home sales increased for the first time in five months, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), as improving inventory and declining mortgage rates motivated some buyers to act. Despite these changes, sales remained sluggish and low inventory continued to push up median home prices. However, we expect increased activity in the coming months as mortgage rates continue to moderate. Improving inventory is likely to ease home price growth and enhance affordability.

Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. Mortgage rates are expected to continue to decrease gradually, leading to increased demand (and unlocking lock-in inventory) in the coming quarters. However, that decline is dependent on future inflation and job reports, and especially possible easing by the Federal Reserve.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million in July. This marks the first increase after four months of declines. On a year-over-year basis, sales were still 2.5% lower than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share stayed at 29% in July, identical to June but down from 30% in July 2023. The inventory level rose from 1.32 million in June to 1.33 million units in July and is up 19.8% from a year ago.

At the current sales rate, July unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-months supply, down from 4.1-months last month but up from 3.3-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. However, the count of single-family resale homes available for sale is up almost 19.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 24 days in July, up from 22 days in June and 20 days in July 2023.

The July all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, down from 28% in June but up from 26% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The July median sales price of all existing homes was $422,600, up 4.2% from last year. This marked the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in July was up 2.7% from a year ago at $367,500. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Existing home sales in July were mixed across the four major regions. In the Northeast, South, and West, sales increased by 4.3%, 1.1%, and 1.4%, respectively, while sales in the Midwest remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the Northeast (2.1%) and West (1.4%) but fell in the Midwest (-5.2%) and South (-3.8%).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.9 to 74.3 in June as inventory improved. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 2.6% lower than a year ago per NAR data.

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State Level Employment Situation: July 2024

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Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 28 states in July compared to the previous month, while 22 states saw a decrease. The District of Columbia reported no change. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in July, following a gain of 179,000 jobs in June.

On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in New York, which added 41,400 jobs, followed by Florida (+21,800), and then California (+21,100). A total of 81,700 jobs were lost across the 22 states, with Missouri reporting the steepest job losses at 22,400. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in Vermont at 0.5%, while Missouri saw the biggest decline at 0.7% between June and July.

Year-over-year ending in July, 2.5 million jobs have been added to the labor market across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The range of job gains spanned from 1,900 jobs in Wyoming to 284,400 jobs in California. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 3.7% in South Carolina to 0.4% in Oregon.

Across the nation, construction sector jobs data[1]—which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 29 states and the District of Columbia reported an increase in July compared to June, while 16 states lost construction sector jobs. The five remaining states reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Florida, with the highest increase, added 6,300 construction jobs, while New York, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 3,800 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 25,000 jobs in July compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Tennessee reported the highest increase at 3.3% and Arkansas reported the largest decline at 1.2%.

Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 239,000, which is a 3.0% increase compared to the July 2023 level. Florida added 36,700 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while New York lost 8,100 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, Alaska had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 19.9%. Over this period, Maine reported the largest decline of 4.1%.

[1] For this analysis, BLS combined employment totals for mining, logging, and construction are treated as construction employment for the District of Columbia, Delaware, and Hawaii.

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