Latest Posts:
Tag

January

Browsing
In Research & Trends

January 2026 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


The U.S. labor market began the year on firmer footing, with job growth rebounding in January after a subdued performance in 2025. Employment gains were widespread across most states, though underlying trends remain uneven, with pockets of weakness persisting in certain regions and sectors.

In January, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 45 states compared to December, while five states and the District of Columbia recorded declines. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 160,000 in January, following a weaker performance in 2025. For all of 2025, monthly job growth averaged just 49,000, well below the 168,000 average monthly gain recorded in 2024.

On a month-over-month basis, employment gains were led by California (+93,500), followed by Texas (+40,100) and New York (+23,800). In contrast, a total of 9,700 jobs were lost across five states and the District of Columbia, with the District of Columbia posting the largest decline (-5,400). In percentage terms, California recorded the strongest increase (+0.5 percent), while the District of Columbia experienced the largest decrease (-0.7 percent) between December and January.

On a year-over-year basis ending in January, total nonfarm employment increased by 324,000 jobs nationwide, representing a 0.2 percent gain relative to January 2025. Job gains ranged from 100 in Hawaii to 131,200 in California. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia collectively lost 263,900 jobs over the past 12 months, with Maryland experiencing the largest decline (-49,300). In percentage terms, job growth ranged from 0.1 percent in Illinois, Mississippi, and Louisiana to 1.9 percent in Nevada. Among states with losses, declines ranged from 0.1 percent in Delaware, South Dakota, and Nebraska to 1.7 percent in Maryland; the District of Columbia, however, recorded a substantially larger decline of 5.9 percent.

Construction Employment

Construction employment —which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed positive results in January. Forty states added construction jobs compared to December, while nine states experienced declines; New Hampshire and the District of Columbia reported no change. Illinois posted the largest monthly gain, adding 13,500 jobs, while Idaho recorded the largest loss (-3,400). Overall, the construction sector added a net 45,000 jobs nationwide in January. In percentage terms, West Virginia recorded the strongest monthly increase (+5.9 percent), while Idaho experienced the steepest decline (-4.4 percent).

Year-over-year, construction employment increased by 53,000 jobs nationwide, a 0.6 percent gain compared to January 2025. Texas led all states with an increase of 30,100 construction jobs, while California recorded the largest loss (-15,400). In percentage terms, West Virginia posted the strongest annual growth in construction employment (+15.0 percent), while Oregon experienced the largest decline (-3.4 percent).

State Unemployment Rate

The state unemployment rate is a key economic indicator that reflects the health of local labor markets, measuring the percentage of the workforce actively seeking work but unable to find it. High unemployment signals a weakening state economy, while low unemployment suggests a tight labor market that may contribute to rising wage pressures.

Hawaii and South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rates at 2.2 percent, while the District of Columbia had the highest rate at 6.7 percent. This elevated rate reflects significant federal workforce reductions and layoffs, exceeding 300,000 positions, which disproportionately affected the District in 2025. Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, Oregon, Nevada, California, and Delaware all recorded unemployment rates at or above 5.0 percent.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Private Residential Construction Spending Slips in January – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Private residential construction spending declined 0.8% in January 2026, following two months of gains. This decline was driven by lower spending across single-family, multifamily construction, and home improvement.  Despite the monthly decline, total residential construction spending remained 2.3% higher than a year ago.

According to the latest construction spending data from the U.S. Census, single-family construction spending edged down by 0.2% in January, consistent with the softer builder confidence reflected in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Compared to a year ago, single-family construction spending was down 5.8%. Meanwhile, multifamily construction spending also decreased mildly, falling 0.7% in January. This marks the second monthly decrease following six consecutive months of modest gains. Compared to a year earlier, multifamily spending was 0.4% higher. Improvement spending (remodeling) declined 1.4% for the month but remained a bright spot on a year-over-year basis, rising 12.5%.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024, reflecting the impacts of elevated interest rates and ongoing uncertainty over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023, with the index largely plateauing since late 2024. In contrast, improvement spending has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2025, supported in part by the aging housing stock and sustained demand for renovation.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was down 3% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending decrease was primarily driven by a $35 billion drop in manufacturing construction spending, followed by a $0.8 billion decrease in commercial construction spending.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

New Home Sales Decline in January on Weather Disruptions – Eye On Housing

No Comments


New home sales declined in January, reflecting typical monthly volatility as well as weather-related disruptions. On a three-month moving average basis, sales remain broadly in line with a year ago, suggesting underlying demand conditions have been relatively stable despite the month-to-month fluctuations. Meanwhile, builders continue to rely on incentives to attract buyers and sustain demand. The January NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed that 64% of builders used sales incentives, marking the 12th consecutive month this share exceeded 60%.

Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 17.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 from a downwardly revised December reading, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales is down 11.3% from a year earlier. On a three-month moving average basis, sales were 688,000, remaining broadly in line with the 685,000 pace seen a year ago.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 587,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory rose to 476,000 units in January. This is 0.4% higher than the previous month, but 4.0% lower than a year earlier. At the current sales pace, months’ supply for new homes stood at 9.7, compared to 9.0 a year ago. The increase in inventory along with weaker sales partly reflects a temporary slowdown in the new home market, as weather disruptions limited transactions during the month, particularly in regions such as the Northeast, where sales declined sharply by 44.7%.

A year ago, there were 116,000 completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By the end of January 2026, that number increased 10.3% to 128,000. However, completed, ready-to-occupy inventory accounted for just 27% of total inventory, while homes under construction made up 51%. The remaining 22% of new homes for sale in January were homes that had not started construction when the sales contract was signed.

The median new home sale price declined 4.5% to $400,500, representing a 6.8% decrease from a year ago. In January, 19% of new homes were priced below $300,000, while 34% were priced above $500,000. The share of new homes priced below $300,000 has trended lower since October 2025, after reaching a recent peak of 23% in September 2025.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 1.4% in the Midwest and 4.1% in the South. New home sales are down 8.3% in the Northeast and 3.5% in the West.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Single-Family Starts Remain Soft in January on Affordability Concerns – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Elevated construction costs and constrained affordability conditions led to a reduction in single-family housing starts in January.

However, led by solid multifamily production, overall housing starts increased 7.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.49 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The January reading of 1.49 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months.

Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 2.8% to a 935,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. Weather effects also likely depressed single-family construction in the Northeast, where single-family starts were down 33% from December 2025 and down more than 6% compared to January 2025 readings.

The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 30% to an annualized 552,000 pace. However, this data may be revised lower in future revisions. Furthermore, prior NAHB analysis of the geography of permit data has shown recent gains for apartment construction occurring in lower density areas, such as exurbs, secondary cities and small towns.

On a regional basis compared to the previous month, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 47.4% higher in the Northeast, 10.8% lower in the Midwest, 11.4% higher in the South and 7.5% lower in the West.

Overall permits decreased 5.4% to a 1.38 million unit annualized rate in January. Single-family permits decreased 0.9% to an 873,000-unit rate, which is the weakest reading since August of last year. This is an indicator of relatively flat construction starts conditions for 2026 amid the ongoing affordability crisis. Multifamily permits decreased 12% to an annualized 503,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data compared to the previous month, permits were 9.6% lower in the Northeast, 9% higher in the Midwest, 3.5% lower in the South and 15.7% in the West.

The number of single-family homes under construction fell back to 582,000 in January, down 8.8% year over year as the single-family home building market has slowed. Despite recent gains for apartment construction, the number of apartments under construction has fallen back to 686,000 units, a 10% decline from January 2025.

The multiyear trend of a smaller number of units under construction is consistent with builders pulling back construction given higher post-covid construction costs and affordability constraints.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Inflation Eased in January – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Inflation eased to an eight-month low in January, confirming a continued downward trend. Though most Consumer Price Index (CPI) components have resolved shutdown-related distortions from last fall, the shelter index will remain affected through April due to the imputation method used for housing costs. The shelter index is likely to show larger increases in the coming months.

While headline inflation moderated, underlying cost pressures from trade policy persist. In 2025, the average U.S. tariff rate rose from 2.6% to 13%. A recent New York Fed study found that 94% of tariff costs were passed through to U.S. companies and consumers during the first eight months of 2025. Households still face elevated costs for consumer goods even as the pace of price growth slows.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% in January compared to the year prior, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. That was the lowest level since May 2025. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 2.5% over the past twelve months. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 3.0% over the year. Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 2.9%, and the energy component index fell by 0.1%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in January (seasonally adjusted), and the “core” CPI increased by 0.3%.

The price index for a broad set of energy sources fell by 1.5% in January, with the increase in natural gas (+1.0%) offset by decreases in fuel oil (-5.7%), gasoline (-3.2%) and electricity (-0.1%). Meanwhile, the food at home index rose by 0.2%, while the food away from home index increased by 0.1% in January.

The index for shelter continued to be the largest contributor to the overall monthly increase in all items index. Other top contributors that rose in January included indexes for airline fares (+6.5%), personal care (+1.2%), recreation (+0.5%), medical care (+0.3%), and communication (+0.5%). Meanwhile, the index for used cars and trucks (-1.8%), household furnishings and operations (-0.1%), and motor vehicle insurance (-0.4%) were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The index for shelter, which makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.2% in January. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and the index for rent of primary residence (RPR) both increased by 0.2% over the month. NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components).

In January, the Real Rent Index remained unchanged. The index has remained virtually flat since August 2025, except for data quality issues in October and November.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

State-Level Employment Situation: January 2025

No Comments


Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 31 states in January compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 19 states and the District of Columbia. California reported no change during this time. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 125,000 in January following a gain of 323,000 jobs in December.

On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in Texas, which added 27,900 jobs. New York came in second (+20,100), followed by Florida (+16,500). Meanwhile, a total of 101,100 jobs were lost across 19 states and the District of Columbia, with Georgia reporting the steepest job losses at 28,200. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in South Dakota at 0.5%, while Missouri saw the biggest decline at 0.6% between December and January.

Year-over-year ending in January, 2.0 million jobs have been added to the labor market, which is a 1.3% increase compared to the January 2024 level. The range of job gains spanned from 400 jobs in Massachusetts to 187,700 jobs in Texas across 48 states. Two states and the District of Columbia lost a total of 14,800 jobs in the past 12 months, with Arizona reporting the steepest job losses at 10,200. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 2.8% in Alaska to 0.1% in California. Massachusetts was unchanged while District of Columbia, Arizona, and West Virginia declined by 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.5% respectively.

Construction Employment

Across the nation, construction sector jobs data —which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 23 states reported an increase in January compared to December, while 21 states lost construction sector jobs. The six remaining states and the District of Columbia reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Utah, with the highest increase, added 3,300 construction jobs, while Florida, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 5,100 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 2,000 jobs in January compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Idaho reported the highest increase at 4.0% and Arkansas reported the largest decline at 1.6%.

Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 178,000, which is a 2.2% increase compared to the January 2024 level. Texas added 19,800 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while California lost 27,600 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, Idaho had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 11.1%. Over this period, Massachusetts reported the largest decline of 3.9%.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

January Private Residential Construction Spending Dips

No Comments


Private residential construction spending declined by 0.4% in January, largely driven by a decrease in multifamily construction and home improvement spending. This decline followed three consecutive months of growth, indicating a downward shift in the monthly data.  Despite the monthly drop, spending remains 3.1% higher than a year ago, showing the resilience of the housing market.

  According to the latest U.S Census Construction Spending data, multifamily construction spending fell by 0.7% for the month, extending the downward trends that began in December 2023. This decline aligns with the weakness in the Multifamily Production Index (MPI) and a lower number of multifamily homes under construction. Improvement spending declined by 1.5% in January but was 14.3% higher compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, spending on single-family construction rose by 0.6% in January, continuing its growth after a  five-month decline from April to August. This growth also aligns with steady builder confidence seen in the Housing Market Index. However, single-family construction remained 0.9% lower than a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates and concerns over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 1.8% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($12.4 billion), followed by the power category ($5.5 billion).

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

New Home Sales Slow in January 2025

No Comments


New home sales decreased in January to a three-month low, as housing affordability continues to sideline potential home buyers. Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% throughout 2025, coupled with elevated home prices, creating a significant affordability challenge for both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January decreased 10.5% to a 657,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised December number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in January is down 1.1% compared to a year earlier.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 657,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in January continued to rise to a level of 495,000, up 7.4% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9 months’ supply at the current building pace.

Completed ready-to-occupy inventory was at a level of 118,000, up 39% compared to a year ago.

While the monthly supply of new homes is 9 months, there is currently only a 3.4 months’ supply of existing single-family homes on the market. NAHB estimates the combined new and existing total months’ supply rose to a 4.2 months’ supply in January. The market has not been near a 6 months’ supply, which represents a balanced market, since 2012.

The median new home sale price in January was $446,300, up 3.7% from a year ago. It is the highest median sale price since October 2022. The Census data reveals a decrease in new home sales priced between $300,000 and $399,999, which made up 24% of new home sales in January, compared to 29% a year ago.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 60.0% in the Northeast, and up 7.1% in the West. New home sales remain unchanged in the Midwest and South.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Existing Home Sales Slow in January

No Comments


After three months of increases, existing home sales retreated in January from the 10-month high last month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales continued to be suppressed by higher mortgage rates, which remained above 6.5% despite the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points last year. The persistent high mortgage rates largely reflect policy uncertainty and concerns about future economic growth.

While existing home inventory improves and the Fed continues lowering rates, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% for longer due to an anticipated slower easing pace in 2025. The prolonged rates may continue to discourage homeowners from trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates, keeping supply tight and prices elevated. As such, sales are likely to remain limited in the coming months due to elevated mortgage rates and home prices.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.0% higher than a year ago. This marks the fourth consecutive month of annual increases.

The first-time buyer share was 28% in January, down from 31% in December but unchanged from January 2024.

The existing home inventory level rose from 1.14 million in December to 1.18 million units in January and is up 16.8% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, January unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-months’ supply, up from 3.2-months last month and 3.0-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 41 days in January, up from 35 days in December and 36 days in January 2024.

The January all-cash sales share was 29% of transactions, up from 28% in December 2024 but down from 32% in January 2024. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates.

The January median sales price of all existing homes was $396,900, up 4.8% from last year. This marked the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in December was up 2.9% from a year ago at $349,500. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases.

Geographically, three of the four regions saw a decline in existing home sales in January, ranging from 5.7% in the Northeast to 7.4% in the West. Sales in the Midwest remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales grew in three regions, ranging from 1.4% in the West to 5.3% in the Midwest. Sales were unchanged in the South from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell from 78.5 to 74.2 in December due to elevated mortgage rates. This marks the first decline since August 2024. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 5.0% lower than a year ago, per National Association of Realtors data.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Inflation Accelerated in January

No Comments


Inflation edged up to a six-month high in January and showed little progress from a year ago. The persistent inflation rate indicates the last mile to the Fed’s 2% target continues to be challenging and is consistent with the Fed’s cautious stance amid solid economic growth and growing uncertainty. While core inflation remained stubborn due to elevated shelter and other service costs, housing costs showed signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a fifth straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since January 2022, suggesting a continued moderation in housing inflation.

While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. In fact, tight monetary policy hurts housing supply because it increases the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise at an elevated pace despite Fed policy tightening. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation.

Furthermore, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. Proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, suggesting a more gradual easing cycle with a slightly higher terminal federal funds rate. However, economic growth could also be higher with lower regulatory burdens. Given the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates, a higher inflation path could extend the affordability crisis and constrain housing supply as builders continue to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges.

During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.0% in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. This followed a 2.9% year-over-year increase in December. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 3.3% over the past twelve months, following a 3.2% increase in December. The “core” CPI has held near 3.3% since May 2024. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 4.4% over the year, following a 4.6% increase in December.  Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 2.5%, and the energy component index increased by 1.0%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.5% in January (seasonally-adjusted), after a 0.4% increase in December. The “core” CPI increased by 0.4% in January, the highest monthly gain since March 2024.

The price index for a broad set of energy sources rose by 1.1% in January, with increases in gasoline (+1.8%), fuel oil (+6.2%), and natural gas (+1.8%), while the electricity index remained flat. Meanwhile, the food index rose 0.4%, after a 0.3% increase in December. The index for food away from home increased by 0.2% and the index for food at home rose by 0.5%.

The index for shelter (+0.4%) was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in all items index, accounting for nearly 30% of the total increase. Other top contributors that rose in January include indexes for motor vehicle insurance (+2.0%), recreation (+1.0%), as well as used cars and trucks, (+2.2%). Meanwhile, the index for apparel (-1.4%), personal care (-0.1%) and household furnishings (-0.2%) and operations were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.4% in January, following an increase of 0.3% in December. Both indexes for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.3% over the month. Despite the moderation, shelter costs remained the largest contributors to headline inflation. 

NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components).

In January, the Real Rent Index fell by 0.1%. This marks the first time since December 2021 that rental prices grew slowly than core inflation.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
Load More
Pin It