Re-escalation of the conflict in Iran pushed mortgage rates higher in July. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.54% in July, up 5 basis points (bps) over June. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, the 30-year mortgage rate has climbed by almost 50 bps. The average 15-year rate averaged 5.91% in July, up 9 bps from June, and up 48 basis points since the end of February. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate remains lower by 18 bps, however, the 15-year rate is now higher by 5 bps.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, rose 10 bps to an average of 4.58% in July as renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about energy supplies and inflation. The yield rose sharply, ending July at 4.67%, 23 bps above its June closing level.

With the conflict unresolved and global oil supply still constraint, inflation remained a key concern among policymakers. At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate within its target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, three Fed officials dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase to curtail inflation. The July monetary policy hold marked the fifth consecutive hold, following 75 basis points of cuts at the end of 2025.