Latest Posts:
Tag

housing

Browsing
In Research & Trends

Consumer Confidence Dropped to Lowest since Tariffs Introduced – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Consumer confidence in December fell to the lowest level since April’s tariff implementation, reflective of growing concerns about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market affecting personal finances. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, continued to narrow and is now at its lowest level since February 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The decline in confidence stands in contrast to the recent solid GDP report for the third quarter.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 92.9 to 89.1 in December, the lowest level since April. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 9.5 points from 126.3 to 116.8, the largest monthly decline since September 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped remained unchanged at 70.7. This is the eleventh consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions deteriorated in December. The share of respondents rating business conditions “good” decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 18.7%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 3.3 percentage points to 19.1%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market cooled further in December. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” fell by 1.5 percentage points to 26.7%, the lowest level since March 2021; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” rose by 0.7 percentage points to 20.8%, the highest since February 2021.

Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve fell from 18.1% to 18.0%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate declined from 25.1% to 21.8%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” remained unchanged at 16.5%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” rose by 0.6 percentage points to 27.4%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home fell slightly to 5.7% in December, the lowest level since August. Of those, respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home fell to 0.5%, and those planning to buy an existing home was unchanged at 2.4%. The remaining 2.8% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

November 2025 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


In November 2025, employment levels were largely unchanged across all states, with year-over-year growth holding near 2%. In contrast, construction employment showed greater variation, with some states experiencing declines of up to 7.5% while others posted gains approaching 10%.

The recent federal government shutdown provides important context for this Bureau of Labor Statistics release, as it disrupted the regular collection of survey data and delayed some statistical reporting. Because of this interruption, the November release focuses on year-over-year comparisons rather than the typical month-to-month changes.

Year-over-year ending in November, 933,000 jobs have been added to the labor market, which is a 0.6% increase compared to the November 2024 level. The range of job gains spanned from 200 jobs in Wyoming to 146,300 jobs in Texas. Nine states and the District of Columbia lost a total of 58,900 jobs in the past 12 months, with the District of Columbia reporting the steepest job losses at 32,800. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 0.1% in Nevada, Connecticut, Wyoming, and Washington to 2.0% in South Carolina. The range of job losses across states spanned 0.1%-0.7%. However, the District of Colombia posted a decline of 4.2%.

Construction Employment

Across the nation, construction sector jobs data 1—which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed an increase of 58,000 jobs over the year. This is a 0.7% increase compared to the November 2024 level. Texas added 24,000 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while New York lost 18,100 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, Iowa had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 9.9%. During this period, New Jersey reported the largest decline of 7.5%.

For this analysis, BLS combined employment totals for mining, logging, and construction are treated as construction employment for the District of Columbia, Delaware, and Hawaii.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Construction Job Openings Increased in November – Eye On Housing

No Comments


The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in November, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from two years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined as the labor market weakened at the end of 2025, falling from 7.449 million in October to 7.146 million in November. The November reading was down from a year ago (8.031 million).

Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below eight million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to move forward on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below eight million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further.

The number of open construction sector jobs increased from 202,000 in October to 292,000 in November. This total is relatively stable compared to a year ago (272,000), although the reading is notably lower than two years ago. The chart below notes the declining trend that has been in place for unfilled construction jobs since the Fed raised the federal funds rate and home building weakened. While home building employment was declining during the second half of 2025, other subsectors of the construction industry have expanded (e.g. data centers).

The construction job openings rate increased to 3.4% in November, higher than the 3.2% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction declined to 1.7% in November. The quits increased to 1.5% for the month.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Mortgage Rates End 2025 at the Lowest Level of the Year – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Long-term mortgage rates have been declining since mid- 2025 and ended the year at their lowest level since September 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% in December, 5 basis points (bps) lower than November. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 3 bps to 5.48%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is lower by about half a percentage point, or 53 basis points (bps). The 15-year rate is also lower by 45 bps.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.12% in December – a modest increase of 2 bps from the previous month. Given forward-looking markets, the 10-year Treasury yield declined during the week preceding the Federal Reserve’s third rate cut of the year. However, compared to the prior month, yields ended slightly higher, rising 2 bps, as labor market data released shortly thereafter pointed to slowing job gains and rising unemployment rate.

Falling lower mortgage rates have started to translate into gains as existing home sales edged up slightly in November. However, this increase remains limited as mortgage rates above 6% are still considered elevated. Nonetheless, as financing costs continue decline, more households are likely to reenter the housing market. An NAHB analysis shows that a 25 bps reduction in the 30-year mortgage rate, from 6.25% to 6.00%, could bring approximately 1.1 million additional households back into the buyer pool.

NAHB expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 6.17% in 2026 and would reach 6% by 2027.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Strong Economic Growth for Third Quarter – Eye On Housing

No Comments


A belated GDP report shows that the U.S. economy expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter–July through September–before signs of cooling appeared in the labor market and consumer confidence weakened.

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, accelerating from a 3.5% increase in the second quarter. This marks the strongest pace of annual economic growth in the past two years. This growth rate was above the NAHB forecast for the quarter as well.

Furthermore, the latest data from the GDP report indicates that inflationary pressures intensified over the quarter. The GDP price index rose 3.8% for the third quarter, up from a 2.1% increase in the second quarter of 2025. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, increased 2.8% during the quarter. This is higher than a 2.1% rise in the previous quarter.

This quarter’s increase in real GDP primarily reflected stronger consumer spending, exports, and government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased during the quarter as tariffs had measurable effects.

Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, its strongest rate since the fourth quarter of 2024. Both goods and services contributed to the gain, with spending on goods rising at a 3.1% annual rate and spending on services increasing 3.7%.

Government spending also added to economic growth, reflecting increases in both state and local government spending (led by higher consumption expenditures) as well as increased federal government spending, driven by defense consumption expenditures. 

Nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.8% in the third quarter. The increases in equipment (+5.4%) and intellectual property products (+5.4%) offset the decrease in structures (-6.3%). Meanwhile, residential fixed investment (RFI) continued to contract, declining 5.1% for the second consecutive quarter. Within the residential category, single-family structures fell 8.9% at an annual rate, multifamily structures declined 2.9%, and spending on home improvements dropped 7.6%.

For the common BEA terms and definitions, please access bea.gov/Help/Glossary.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Top Posts – Lower Mortgage Rates, Better Affordability – Eye On Housing

No Comments


As housing affordability remains a critical challenge across the country, mortgage rates continue to play a central role in shaping homebuying power. Mortgage rates stayed elevated throughout 2023 and early 2024. Recent data, however, shows a modest decline in mortgage rates. Even slight declines can have a significant impact on housing affordability, pricing more households back into the market. New NAHB Priced-Out Estimates show how home price increases affect housing affordability in 2025. This post presents details regarding how interest rates affect the number of households that can afford a median priced new home.

At the beginning of 2025, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7%, around 31.5 million households could afford a median-priced home at $459,826. This requires a household income of $147,433 by the front-end underwriting standards[1]. In contrast, if the average mortgage rates had remained at the recent peak of 7.62% in October 2023, only 28.7 million households would have qualified. This 62-basis point decline has effectively priced 2.8 million additional households into the market, expanding homeownership opportunities.

The table below shows how affordability changes with each 25 basis-point increase in interest rates, from 3.75% to 8.25% for a median-priced home at $459,826. The minimum required income with a 3.75% mortgage rate is $110,270. In contrast, a mortgage rate of 8.25%, increases the required income to $163,068, pushing millions of households out of the market.

As rates climb higher, the priced-out effect diminishes. When interest rates increase from 6.5% to 6.75%, around 1.13 million households are priced out of the market, unable to meet the higher income threshold required to afford the increased monthly payments. However, an increase from 7.75% to 8% would squeeze about 850,000 households out of the market.

This exemplifies that when interest rates are relatively low, a 25 basis-point increase has a much larger impact. It is because it affects a broader portion of households in the middle of the income distribution. For example, if the mortgage interest rate decreases from 5.25% to 5%, around 1.5 million more households will qualify the mortgage for the new homes at the median price of $459,826. This indicates lower interest rates can unlock homeownership opportunities for a substantial number of households.

[1] . The sum of monthly payment, including the principal amount, loan interest, property tax, homeowners’ property and private mortgage insurance premiums (PITI), is no more than 28 percent of monthly gross household income.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Top Posts – The Power of Women in the Workforce – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Over the past 125 years, women have played a crucial and multifaceted role in the labor force. Increasing women’s participation in the workforce is not only essential for individual and family well-being, but also contributes significantly to overall labor force participation rates and economic growth by adding more workers and enhancing overall productivity1.   

Historically, women’s labor force participation rate rose rapidly between 1948 and 2000, peaking around 60% in 1999. During the same period, men’s participation rates declined. However, since 2000, the growth in women’s labor force participation has flattened and then declined.

According to the March 2025 Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), women’s labor force participation rate held steady at 57.5%, and women now represent nearly half (47%) of the total U.S. labor force.

Selected Categories

Prime-age women (ages 25-54) represent a significant and growing segment of the U.S. labor force. As of 2024, they accounted for nearly 30% of the civilian labor force, compared to 34% for prime-age men. According to the latest data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), prime-age women had a labor force participation rate of 78%, the highest among all female age groups. This rate has fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, surpassing its previous peak recorded in February 2020.

As discussed in the previous blog, higher levels of educational attainment are strongly associated with higher labor force participation and lower unemployment. Women with a bachelor’s degree or higher have played a vital role in shaping the labor market. In 2024, about 70% of women with this level of educational attainment were active in the labor force, compared to only 34% of women who had not completed high school.

The CPS data also reveals notable differences in women’s labor force participation based on parental status.  Women with older children (ages 6 to 17) and no children under 6 years old had a higher labor force participation rate than those with younger children. Interestingly, women without children had a relatively lower labor force participation rate compared to those with children. Further research from the Brookings Institution and The Hamilton Project2 highlights a significant shift: women with young children (under 5 years), especially those who are highly educated, married, or foreign-born, are more likely to be in the labor force now than they were before the pandemic.

Women’s labor force participation also varies by race and ethnicity. Among women ages 16 and over, Black women had the highest participation rate at 61%, followed by Hispanic women (59%), Asian women (59%), and White women (57%).

The figure below reflects the diversity and complexity of women’s roles in the workforce.

Women in Industry

As more women enter the labor force, they are increasingly shaping a broad range of industries–from healthcare and education to leisure and hospitality, retail, technology, and construction.

In 1964, women were primarily employed in a narrower set of sectors. The top four industries employing the most women at that time were: manufacturing; trade, transportation, and utilities; local government; and education and health services3.

By 2024, however, women’s participation in the workforce has expanded significantly, both in scope and impact. According to the latest CPS data, women dominated the education and health services sector, where they hold approximately 27.6 million jobs. That means seven in every ten workers in this field are women. Moreover, women now make up more than half of the workforce in several other key industries, including other services, leisure and hospitality, and financial activities.

Despite their growing role in the workforce, they remain underrepresented in certain sectors, most notably, construction. Although women now make up a significant portion of the overall labor force, they account for just 11% of total employment in the construction industry. Of those, only 2.8% of women work in actual trade roles, while most women in the industry are employed in:

Office and administrative support

Management

Business

Financial operations

Gender Pay Gap by Occupation

While the gender pay gap in the U.S. has narrowed significantly over the past few decades, it remains a persistent issue in the labor market. According to a study4 by the Pew Research Center, women earned about 65 cents for every dollar earned by men in 1982. By 2023, that figure had risen to approximately 82 cents on the dollar—a clear sign of progress. However, the pace of change has slowed considerably in recent years.

In 2024, the CPS data shows that women working full time earned a median weekly wage of $1,043, compared to $1,261 for men. This means women earned 83 cents for every dollar earned by men—a 17% gender wage gap.

At the occupational level, women earn less than men across all major occupational groups, even ones dominated by women. The smallest gender pay gap was found in community and social services occupations. In contrast, occupations in legal, sales and related, protective services, and production display larger disparities in earnings between women and men.

The Future of Women in the Workforce

Looking ahead to 2033, the number of women in the labor force is expected to continue growing, driven primarily by the prime-age women (ages 25 to 54). BLS employment projections estimate that roughly 3.2 million prime-age women will join the workforce between 2023 and 2033. During this period, their participation rate is projected to increase slightly, reflecting continued momentum in women’s economic engagement.

Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market is experiencing a critical shortage of skilled workers, especially in fields like STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) and skilled trades. As the NAHB Chief Economist stated, “The ultimate solution for the persistent, national labor shortage will be found…by recruiting, training and retaining skilled workers.” This applies equally to the women’s labor force.

Women’s participation is closely tied to their access to education and skills development. As more women pursue higher education and specialized training, their career opportunities expand, particularly in fields previously dominated by men. This progress can help narrow the gender pay gap over time.

However, women often shoulder disproportionate family and caregiving responsibilities, not only during their reproductive years, but throughout their lives. According to the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), on a typical weekday, prime-age working women spent about four hours on caregiving and household tasks, such as household activities, caring for and helping household members, and purchasing goods and services. This is nearly twice the time men spent on the same activities. Many women face a tough decision between career advancement and family caregiving responsibilities, often leading to reduced work hours or even complete withdrawal from the labor force.

To support and increase women’s labor force participation, it may be beneficial to consider a range of policies and workplace reforms. For example, promoting flexible work arrangements can help women better balance professional and personal responsibilities. Narrowing the gender pay gap would also play a critical role in ensuring fair compensation and financial security. Furthermore, expanding access to affordable and high-quality childcare could remove a major barrier for many working mothers. In addition, continued investment in education and training programs would enable women to advance in their careers and contribute to broader, long-term economic growth.

To conclude, empowering women to succeed in the workforce not only improves individual and family well-being, but also strengthens the entire economy.

Note:



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Top Posts – U.S. Population Grows at Highest Rate Since 2001 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates, the U.S. resident population grew by 3,304,757 to a total population of 340,110,988. The population grew at a rate of 0.98%, the highest rate since 0.99% in 2001. This also marked the third straight increase in the growth rate of the U.S. population. The vintage population estimates are released annually and represent the change in the U.S. population between July 1st of 2023 and 2024.

The Census Bureau reports that the primary source of population growth was net international migration (immigration), as international migration levels once again were higher than the previous year. The level of net international migration between 2023 and 2024 was 2,786,119. The second component of population growth is natural growth, which represents births minus deaths. Births totaled 3,605,563, down slightly from last year, while the number of deaths was reported at 3,086,925, also a decrease from last year. The natural growth, therefore, between 2023 and 2024 was 518,638.

Each region in the U.S. experienced population growth for the 2023-2024 period. The South led in population growth at 1.34% followed by the West at 0.85%. Meanwhile, the Midwest population grew 0.75%, while the Northeast grew the least at 0.59%.  

At the State level, 47 States and the District of Columbia had a population increase over the year. Of note, D.C. had the highest growth rate at 2.13%. Florida was second with population growth at 2.00% followed by Texas at 1.80%. Numerically, Texas experienced the largest population increase gaining 562,941. This was followed by Florida at 467,347 and California at 232,570.

Only three states lost population or remained level according to Census estimates. Vermont and West Virginia tied with a decline of 0.03%. Meanwhile Mississippi saw no population change.

California remained the most populous state by a healthy margin. California’s population was at 39,198,693, while the next most populous state was Texas at 31,290,831. To round out the top five States by total population the proceeding highest were Florida (23,372,215), New York (19,867,248), and Pennsylvania (13,078,751).



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Top Posts – States with Highest and Fastest Rising Construction Wages, 2025 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Wage growth in construction continued to decelerate in April on a national basis, but the differences across regional markets remain stark. Nationally, average hourly earnings (AHE) in construction increased 3.6% year-over-year and crossed the $39.3 mark when averaged across all payroll employees (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA). Meanwhile, average earnings in construction in Alaska and Massachusetts exceeded $50 per hour (NSA). Across states, the annual growth rate in AHE ranged from 10.6% in Nevada to a decline of 3% in Oklahoma. This is according to the latest Current Employment Statistics (CES) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).   

Average hourly earnings (AHE) in construction vary greatly across 43 states that report these data. Alaska, states along the Pacific coast, Illinois, Minnesota, and the majority of states in Northeast record the highest AHE. As of April 2025, fourteen states report average earnings (NSA) exceeding $40 per hour.

At the other end of the spectrum, nine states report NSA average hourly earnings in construction under $34. The states with the lowest AHE are mostly in the South, with Arkansas reporting the lowest rate of $29.3 per hour.

While differences in regional hourly rates reflect variation in the cost of living across states among other things, the faster growing wages are more likely to indicate specific labor markets that are particularly tight. Year-over-year, Nevada, Mississippi, Alaska, Colorado, Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and Montana reported fastest growing hourly wages in construction, more than doubling the national average growth of 3.6%. Nevada reported the largest annual increase of 10.6%, while the growth rate in Mississippi and Alaska was just under 10%.

In sharp contrast, Oklahoma registered a decline in hourly wages of 3%. Five other states reported modestly declining hourly rates in construction, compared to a year ago – Louisiana, Missouri, Rhode Island, California, and Wisconsin.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Top Posts – Cost of Constructing a Home in 2024 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Construction costs account for 64.4% of the average price of a home, according to NAHB’s most recent Cost of Construction Survey.  In 2022, the share was 3.6 points lower, at 60.8%.  The latest finding marks a record high for construction costs since the inception of the series in 1998 and the fifth instance where construction costs represented over 60% of the total sales price.

The finished lot was the second largest cost at 13.7% of the sales price, down more than four percentage points from 17.8% in 2022.  The share of finished lot to the total sales price has fallen consecutively in the last three surveys, reaching a series low in 2024.

The average builder profit margin was 11.0% in 2024, up less than a percentage point from 10.1% in 2022.  

At 5.7% in 2024, overhead and general expenses rose when compared to 2022 (5.1%).  The remainder of the average home sale price consisted of sales commission (2.8%), financing costs (1.5%), and marketing costs (0.8%).  Marketing costs were essentially unchanged while sales commission and financing costs decreased compared to their 2022 breakdowns.

Construction costs were broken down into eight major stages of construction. Interior finishes, at 24.1%, accounted for the largest share of construction costs, followed by major system rough-ins (19.2%), framing (16.6%), exterior finishes (13.4%), foundations (10.5%), site work (7.6%), final steps (6.5%), and other costs (2.1%).

Explore the interactive dashboard below to view the costs and percentage of construction costs for the eight stages and their 36 components.

Table 1 shows the same results as the dashboard above in table format.  Please click here to be redirected to the full report (which includes historical results back to 1998).



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
Load More
Pin It