Overall confidence in the market for new multifamily housing held steady year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 44, unchanged year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 69, dropping 13 points year-over-year.

Multifamily developer sentiment is roughly where it was at this time last year, although the combination of regulatory hurdles, interest rates, insurance costs and volatility in material prices is threatening the viability of some projects. Also, in some markets, developers are reporting that it has become more difficult to obtain permits for unsubsidized projects.

The MPI and MOI continue to show that the market for garden and low-rise apartments typical of outlying areas is stronger than the market for mid- and high-rise apartments. The gap is narrowing year-over-year for new multifamily construction (i.e., blue line), while widening for the occupancy of existing apartments (i.e., orange line). NAHB is projecting that multifamily starts will increase slightly in 2026, but current production rates are unlikely to be sustained through 2027.

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MMS asks multifamily developers to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active. The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor. The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.

There were two components which experienced increases year-over-year, while the other two experienced decreases during the first quarter. The component measuring mid/high-rise rose seven points to 35, while the component measuring subsidized units increased six points to 56. On the other hand, the component measuring garden/low-rise fell six points to 48 while the component measuring built-for-sale units inched down one point to 37. Only the component measuring subsidized units was above the break-even point of 50.

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The survey also asks multifamily property owners to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments in markets where they are active as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Like the MPI, the MOI and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than poor. The MOI is a weighted average of three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized). 

All three MOI components experienced year-over-year decreases in the first quarter of 2026; the mid/high-rise component dropped 17 points to 59, the garden/low-rise component fell 11 points to 71, and the subsidized component decreased nine points to 80. Nevertheless, all three MOI components remain well above the break-even point of 50.

For more recent information about the market, the survey contains a separate question asking multifamily developers to compare current market conditions to conditions three months earlier. In the first quarter of 2026, 21% of respondents said the current market is better, and 19% said it is worse. However, the majority of developers—60%—said that the market is currently about the same as it was three months ago.

The MMS was re-designed in 2023 to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys. Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.