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After Declines in 2024, Building and Design Firms Expect Growth

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Residential construction and design professionals have an optimistic outlook for 2025, with more than 3 in 5 firms reporting positive expectations for overall business performance, according to the just-released 2025 U.S. Houzz State of the Industry report. Businesses across industry sectors anticipate high revenue growth rates, heightened demand for their services and improved local and national economies, even as they brace for rising costs and worsening labor shortages. This widespread optimism follows a year marked by unexpected revenue and profitability declines industrywide.

“Home professionals are entering 2025 with renewed confidence and expectations for growth in both revenue and profitability after navigating two difficult years,” Houzz staff economist Marine Sargsyan says. “Pros report that they’ve implemented new processes for operational efficiency and client communication and made strategic investments in technology to address the challenges they faced last year. This will better position them for an anticipated increase in demand, enhance their resilience amidst potential tariffs and leverage expected improvements in both local and national economic conditions.”

Here’s what the report reveals about firms’ expectations for 2025 and performances in 2024.



This article was originally published by a www.houzz.com . Read the Original article here. .

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U.S. Economy Ends 2024 With Solid Growth

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Real GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2024, but the economy finished the year at a solid rate. While consumer spending continued to drive growth, gross private domestic investment detracted over a full percentage point mainly due to a decline in private inventories.

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a 3.1% gain in the third quarter of 2024. This quarter’s growth was higher than NAHB’s forecast of a 1.8% increase.

Furthermore, the data from the GDP report suggests that inflationary pressure persisted at the end of 2024. The GDP price index rose 2.2% for the fourth quarter, up from a 1.9% increase in the third quarter of 2024. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter. This is up from a 1.5% increase in the third quarter of 2024.

For the full year, real GDP grew at a healthy rate of 2.8% in 2024. It was slightly slower than the 2023 level of a 2.9% increase and matched NAHB’s forecast.

This quarter’s increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, and government spending.

Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, rose at an annual rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter. This marks the highest annual growth rate since the first quarter of 2023. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. While goods spending increased at a 6.6% annual rate, expenditures for services increased at a 3.1% annual rate.

In the fourth quarter, government spending increased at a 2.5% rate.

Nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.2% in the fourth quarter. The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment reflected decreases in equipment (-7.8%) and structures (-1.1%). Meanwhile, residential fixed investment increased 5.3% in the fourth quarter after two consecutive quarters of declines. Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures rose 3.1% at an annual rate, improvements increased 2.7%, while multifamily structures declined 7.2%.

Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected

downturns in gross private domestic investment and exports. Inventories fell and dragged down the contribution to real GDP by 0.93 percentage points. Imports decreased.

For the common BEA terms and definitions, please access bea.gov/Help/Glossary.

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This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

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Home Price Growth Leveling Off

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On a year-over-year basis, home prices grew at a rate of 3.75% for November, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (NSA). This marks an increase from the 3.59% growth rate recorded in October but is down from a peak of 6.54% in March 2024.

By Metro Area

In addition to tracking national home price changes, the S&P CoreLogic Index (SA) also reports home price indexes across 20 metro areas. Compared to last year, 19 of 20 metro areas reported a home price increase. There were 10 metro areas that grew more than the national rate of 3.75%. The highest annual rate was New York at 7.37%, followed by Chicago at 6.22% and Washington DC at 5.90%. Denver grew at the smallest rate at 0.92%, followed closely by Dallas at 1.02%. Tampa was the only area that experienced a decline from last year at a rate of -0.33%.

By Census Division

A similar index, the Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index (SA) publishes not only national data but also data by census division. The national year-over-year rate was 4.22% for November. Meanwhile, the division with the highest year-over-year rate was 7.67% in New England, while the lowest was 1.81% in West South Central. A three-month trend in rates is shown for each division below. The FHFA Home Price Index releases their metro and state data on a quarterly basis, which NAHB analyzed in a previous post.

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Residential Construction Inputs Price Growth Slows in 2024

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were unchanged in December according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index grew 0.8% over 2024, the lowest yearly increase in the index since its inception in 2014.

The inputs to the new residential construction price index can be broken into two components—one for goods and another for services. The goods component increased 1.7% over the year, while services decreased 0.4%. For comparison, the total final demand index increased 3.3% in 2024, with final demand with respect to goods up 1.8% and final demand for services up 4.0% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. The price of input goods to new residential construction was down 0.1% in December from November. The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

The price of goods used in residential construction grew 1.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the growth in 2023 of 1.0%. This growth can be attributed to the rise in the prices of building materials, which grew 2.2% in 2024. The price of energy inputs fell for the second straight year, down 5.3% in 2024.

At the individual commodity level, the five commodities with the highest importance for building materials to the new residential construction index were as follows: ready-mix concrete, general millwork, paving mixtures/blocks, sheet metal products, and wood office furniture/store fixtures. Across these commodities, there was price growth for most commodities in 2024 except for sheet metal products. Ready-mix concrete was up 5.1%, wood office furniture/store fixtures up 4.3%, general millwork up 2.5%, paving mixtures/blocks up 2.3% while sheet metal products were down 0.2%. The commodity used in new residential construction the featured the highest price growth in 2024 was softwood lumber, not edge worked, which increased 14.7% in 2024. The commodity where prices declined the most was No. 2 diesel fuel, down 13.9%.

Input Services

Prices of inputs to residential construction for services were up 0.5% in December from November. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was down 1.8% in 2024 after growing 5.8% in 2023.  Across individual services, credit deposit services advanced the most in 2024, up 21.2% over the year while the prices for metal, mineral and ore wholesaling services fell the most, down 19.2%.

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Employment Growth Rebounds in November

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Employment rebounded sharply in November after strike- and hurricane-related disruptions in October. The unemployment rate rose one percentage point to 4.2% after holding at 4.1% for two months in a row.

In November, wage growth remained unchanged from the previous month. Wages grew at a 4.0% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, down 0.2 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth is outpacing inflation, which typically occurs as productivity increases.

National Employment

According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, a sharp rebound from an upwardly revised increase of 36,000 jobs in October. Since January 2021, the U.S. job market has added jobs for 47 consecutive months, making it the third-longest period of employment expansion on record.

The estimates for the previous two months were revised higher. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 32,000, from +223,000 to +255,000, while the change for October was revised up by 24,000 from +12,000 to +36,000. Combined, the revisions were 56,000 higher than previously reported.

In the first eleven months of 2024, 1,984,000 jobs were created. Additionally, monthly employment growth averaged 180,000 per month, compared to the 251,000 monthly average gain for 2023. The U.S. economy has created more than 8 million jobs since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in November, marking the seventh month that the unemployment rate has been at or above 4.0%. While the number of employed persons decreased by 355,000, the number of unemployed persons rose by 161,000.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—decreased by one percentage point to 62.5%. However, for people aged between 25 and 54, the participation rate remained at 83.5% for the second straight month. While the overall labor force participation rate remains below its pre-pandemic levels of 63.3% at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%.

In November, employment continued to trend up in health care (+54,000), leisure and hospitality (+53,000), government (+33,000), and social assistance (+19,000). Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing increased in November as workers who were on strike returned to work. Meanwhile, retail trade lost 28,000 jobs.

Construction Employment

Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 10,000 in November, after 2,000 gains in October. While residential construction gained 3,100 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 6,800 jobs for the month.

Residential construction employment now stands at 3.4 million in November, broken down as 958,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 2,983 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 52,400 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,391,400 positions.

In November, the unemployment rate for construction workers remained at 5.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 15.3% in April 2020 due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction

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Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year gains for the third quarter of 2024, as builders sought to add additional rental housing in a market facing ongoing, elevated mortgage interest rates.

According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 24,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the third quarter of 2024. This is 41% higher than the third quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters, 92,000 such homes began construction, which is a more than 31% increase compared to the 70,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period.

The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates. Nonetheless, builders continue to build projects of built-for-rent homes for their own operation.

Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (9%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012).

Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys. However, this investor market has cooled somewhat in recent quarters due to higher interest rates.

The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring.

With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share even as the rest of the building market expands in the coming quarters.

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Home Price Growth Continued to Slow in August

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Home price growth continued to slow in August, growing at a rate just above 4% year-over-year. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted – SA) posted a 4.24% annual gain, down from a 4.82% increase in July. Similarly, the Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index (SA) rose 4.25%, down from 4.72% in July. Both indexes experienced a sixth consecutive year-over-year deceleration in August. The year-over-year rate peaked in February 2024 when the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller stood at 6.57% and the FHFA at 7.28%.

By Metro Area

In addition to tracking national home price changes, the S&P CoreLogic Index (SA) also reports home price indexes across major metro areas. Compared to last year, all 20 metro areas reported a home price increase.  There were 12 metro areas that grew more than the national rate of 4.24%. The highest annual rate was New York at 8.07%, followed by Las Vegas and Chicago both with rates of 7.22%. The smallest home price growth over the year was seen by Denver at 0.68%, followed by Portland at 0.82%, and Dallas at 1.57%.

By Census Division

Monthly, the FHFA Home Price Index (SA) publishes not only national data but also data by census division. All divisions saw an annual increase of over 2% in August. The highest rate for August was 6.31% in the East South Central division, while the lowest was 2.36% in the West South Central division. As shown in graph below, all divisions saw a slow in rates compared to June. The FHFA Home Price Index releases their metro and state data on a quarterly basis, which NAHB analyzed in a previous post.

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The U.S. Economy Posted Another Solid Growth in Third Quarter

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The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter of 2023, boosted by strong consumer spending and government spending. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, following a 3.0% gain in the second quarter of 2024. This quarter’s growth matched NAHB’s forecast.

Furthermore, the data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index rose 1.8% for the third quarter, down from a 2.5% increase in the second quarter of 2024. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 1.5% in the third quarter. This is down from a 2.5% increase in the second quarter of 2024.

This quarter’s increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending.

Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in the third quarter. It marks the highest annual growth rate since the first quarter of 2023. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. While goods spending increased at a 6.0% annual rate, expenditures for services increased 2.6% at an annual rate.

The U.S. trade deficit increased in the third quarter, as imports increased more than exports. A wider trade deficit shaved 0.56 percentage points off GDP. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased 11.2%, while exports rose 8.9%.

In the third quarter, federal government spending increased 9.7%, led by a 14.9% surge in national defense outlays.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.3% in the third quarter. Increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. Meanwhile, residential fixed investment decreased 5.1% in the third quarter and dragged down the contribution to real GDP by 0.21 percentage points. Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures declined 16.1% at an annual rate, multifamily structures decreased 8.7%, while improvements rose 13.9%.

For the common BEA terms and definitions, please access bea.gov/Help/Glossary.

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Home Price Growth Slowing

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Home prices remain elevated but price growth continues to decelerate, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) recent release. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (seasonally adjusted) reached its 14th monthly consecutive record high in July 2024. The index increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.15%, down slightly from a revised June rate of 2.19%. This rate has slowed over the past six months, from a high of 6.53% in February 2024. The index has not seen an outright decrease since January of 2023 (nineteen months).

Separately, the House Price Index released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA; SA) posted its sixth monthly consecutive record high, after having decreased slightly in January of this year. The FHFA HPI recorded a 1.57% increase in July, upward from a revised 0.03% rate in June.  

Year-Over-Year  

Home prices experienced a fifth consecutive year-over-year declaration in July, tabulated by both indexes. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (not seasonally adjusted – NSA) posted a 4.96% annual gain in July, down from a revised 5.50% increase in June. Meanwhile, the FHFA HPI (NSA) index rose 4.56%, down from a revised 5.37% in June. Both indexes have seen yearly growth rates slow since February 2024, when the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller stood at 6.54% and the FHFA at 7.23%. 

By Metro Area

In addition to tracking national home price changes, the S&P CoreLogic Index (SA) also reports home price indexes across 20 metro areas. At an annual rate, only one out of 20 metro areas reported a home price decline: San Francisco at -3.10%. Among the 20 metro areas, 15 exceeded the national rate of 2.15%. Seattle had the highest rate at 13.78%, followed by New York at 6.11%, and Las Vegas at 5.76%. The monthly trends are shown in the graph below.  

Monthly, the FHFA HPI (SA) releases not only national but also census division house price indexes. Out of the nine census divisions, three posted negative monthly depreciation (adjusted to an annual rate) for July: South Atlantic at -7.88%, West South Central at -6.80%, and East South Central at -0.66%. The divisions with positive home price appreciation ranged from 2.02% in West North Central to 11.57% in East South Central. The FHFA HPI releases its metro and state data on a quarterly basis, which NAHB analyzed in a previous post. 

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Price Growth for Inputs to Residential Construction Slows in August

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction, excluding capital investment, labor and imports decreased 0.1% in August according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to a year ago, this index was up 0.8% in August after a 1.8% increase in July. The inputs to new residential construction price index can be broken into two components­—one for goods and another for services. The goods component increased 0.2% over the year, while services increased 1.9%. For comparison, the total final demand index increased 1.7% over the year in August, with final demand goods flat and final demand services up 2.6% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential inputs price index, around at 60%. The price of inputs to residential construction, goods, remained flat in August after increasing 0.1% in July. The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less foods and energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index. Prices for inputs to residential construction, goods less food and energy, were up 1.6% in August compared to a year ago. This year-over-year growth has come down since April, when it was at 2.5% and remains well below the growth in August of 2022, when it was at 14.7%.

The graph below focuses on the data since the start of 2023 for residential goods inputs. Energy prices have retreated over the past year, with only two periods of growth in 2024.

Input Services

Prices of inputs to residential construction, services, fell 0.2% in August after remaining flat in July. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components, a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services less trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most vital component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%).

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