Latest Posts:
Tag

Eye

Browsing
In Research & Trends

State/Local Property Tax Revenue Rises Past $210 Billion in the Fourth Quarter – Eye On

No Comments


Property tax revenue collected by state and local governments rose for the ninth consecutive quarter according to the Census Bureau’s quarterly summary of state and local tax revenue. Total tax revenue for state and local governments increased 2.1% over the quarter, with individual income tax revenue up 1.4%, sales tax revenue up 2.5%, and corporate income tax revenue up 8.3%. Property tax revenue rose the least amount over the quarter, up 1.0%. For 2025, state and local tax collections totaled $2.2 trillion, with property taxes accounting for $826.8 billion (37.5%).

Property tax revenue collected was $210.7 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase from a revised $208.5 billion estimate in the third quarter. These collections were 4.8% from one year ago. The share of property tax revenue as a share of total revenue was 37.3% in the fourth quarter. This share has been relatively stagnant at 37% over the past three years.  

Property taxes typically make up the largest share of the total tax revenue for state and local governments, with most property tax collected by local governments. The second highest revenue generator was sales tax at 27.6%, totaling $155.7 billion, followed closely by individual income tax at 27.0% ($152.5 billion). Corporate income tax rounded out the remaining 8.4% at $45.8 billion.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Age of Housing Stock by State – Eye On Housing

No Comments


According to the latest data from the 2024 American Community Survey (ACS), the median age of owner-occupied homes has reached 42 years old. The age of the housing stock is an important remodeling market indicator. Older homes tend to be less energy-efficient than newly built homes and are more likely to require repairs, upgrades, and renovations in the future. At the same time, as people increasingly use their homes for multiple purposes and demand additional space, older housing represents an investment opportunity for homeowners.

The age of the owner-occupied housing stock varies greatly across 50 states. New York has the oldest owner-occupied homes with a median age of 64 years, followed by Massachusetts (59), and Rhode Island (59). Half of all owner-occupied houses in the District of Columbia were built more than 80 years ago. However, D.C. is generally not a representative market, given its smaller size and highly urbanized environment.

In contrast, newer owner-occupied housing is particularly concentrated in the Sun Belt states where 14 out of 15 states, the exception being California (45), have a median owner-occupied housing stock age below the national median (42 years). The median age of owner-occupied homes in Nevada is only 25 years, followed by Texas at 28 years. South Carolina, Georgia and Arizona also rank among the states with the newer homes, where half of owner-occupied homes have been built within the past 29 years. 

The geographic distribution of owner-occupied housing stock age reflects underlying population changes. Population growth, including both natural growth and net migration, signals rising demands for housing and typically leads to more new construction. As a result, the rapid population growth states, like Idaho, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas Florida, tend to have newer owner-occupied housing stock.  However, states experiencing slower or even negative population growth tend to have older housing. In states such as Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New York, the owner-occupied housing stock is older than the national median.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

4Q25 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


In the fourth quarter of 2025, the median price for a new single-family home was $405,300, which was $9,600 lower than the median price of an existing home, which stood at $414,900. This marks the third consecutive quarter for which existing home prices have exceeded new homes prices, according to U.S. Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors data (not seasonally adjusted – NSA)

Typically, new homes carry a price premium over existing homes. From 2010 to 2019, this pattern held steady, with an average difference of $66,000. However, over the past five years (2020-2025), the gap has narrowed significantly, averaging just $23,300. Notably, beginning in the second quarter of 2024, this relationship reversed, with existing home prices exceeding new home prices in five of the past seven quarters.

Both new and existing homes saw dramatic increases in prices post-pandemic due to higher construction costs and limited supply. While overall home prices remain elevated compared to historical norms, new homes prices have moderated due to tactical builder business decisions, whereas existing homes prices continue to increase because of lean supply and in some markets a lack of price discovery for existing homeowners.

Indeed, the median price for a new single-family home sold in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 3.34% from the previous year. New home price annual growth has been trending downwards for the last two years.  

Meanwhile, the median price for existing single-family homes increased 1.25% from one year ago. Existing home prices have continued to experience year-over-year increases for ten consecutive quarters.

There are several factors as to why new and existing homes are selling at similar price points. Tight inventory continues to push up prices for existing homes, as many homeowners who secured low mortgage rates during the pandemic are hesitant to sell due to current high interest rates.

Meanwhile, new home pricing is more volatile – prices change due to the types and locations of homes being built. Despite various challenges facing the industry, home builders are adapting to affordability challenges by building on smaller lots, constructing smaller homes, and offering incentives. Additionally, there has been a shift in home building toward the South, associated with less expensive homes because of policy effects. This has occurred in an environment in which construction costs continue to rise, which is the fundamental driver of home prices.

The least expensive region for new homes in the fourth quarter was the South, with a median price of $366,100. The Midwest followed closely behind at $377,900. For existing homes, the Midwest was the most affordably region at $317,200, followed by the South at $367,200.

New homes were most expensive in the Northeast with a median price of $799,000, while the West sold at $557,100. For existing homes, the West led as the most expensive region at $623,800 homes, followed by Northeast at $515,900.  

The new home price premium was most pronounced in the Northeast, where new homes sold for $283,100 more than existing homes. Additionally, in the Midwest homes new homes sold for $60,700 more than existing homes. The West and South followed the national trend, with existing homes priced $66,700 more than new homes in the West and $1,100 more in the South. 



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Demolition Activity Slows Down But Remains Above Pre-Pandemic Levels – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Residential demolition activity in 2025 declined 0.1% year-over-year but remained above pre-pandemic levels. According to NAHB analysis of data from Construction Monitor, permits pulled for residential demolition have been increasing since 2018, with the exception of 2020, when building-related activities broadly stalled. Demolition activity rebounded sharply in 2021 and 2022 but has since plateaued. Even with the recent stall, demolition permits in 2025 were still 34.2% higher than in 2018, underscoring the extent to which activity remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms.

While the data do not differentiate between partial or full demolitions, teardowns are often an indicator of redevelopment and neighborhood reinvestment, and thus, signals future construction. Previous NAHB survey analysis indicated that teardown-related construction projects made up approximately 7% of single-family starts in 2024.

At the state level, demolition activity is highly concentrated, with California, Texas, and Florida—the three most populous states—usually leading the nation in demolition permits. However, from 2023 through 2025, New Jersey ranked third in total demolition permits, surpassing Texas. New Jersey’s elevated demolition activity reflects the age of its housing stock. Approximately 73% of homes in the state were built before 1980, out of which 18% were built before 1939, leaving many properties functionally obsolete or in need of replacement. In response, several municipalities have pursued targeted redevelopment and blight reduction initiatives. For example, Trenton, the capital city, launched one of its largest blight reduction projects in 2023, aimed at revitalizing distressed neighborhoods and expanding the supply of quality housing.

In 2025, New Jersey accounted for approximately 10.4% of all residential demolition permits nationwide. Florida recorded the largest share at 14.6%, followed by California at 13.3%. Texas remained a significant contributor at 7.2%, while New York ranked fifth with about 4.1% of total activity. Collectively, the top five states accounted for nearly half of all residential demolition permits issued in 2025, highlighting the high degree of geographic concentration at the state level.

At a smaller geographic scale, the year-to-year variability is substantially higher. To account for this volatility, examining cumulative demolition permitting since 2018 provides insight into where demolition activity has been persistently concentrated over the current cycle. On this basis, Los Angeles County, CA accounted for the largest share of cumulative demolition permits (4.8%), followed by Harris County, TX (3.1%), Cuyahoga County, OH (2.6%), King County, WA (2.0%), and Miami-Dade County, FL (1.8%). Together, these five counties accounted for nearly 15% of all demolition activity nationwide over the period.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Value of Household Real Estate Assets Fall for Second Straight Quarter – Eye On Housing

No Comments


The market value of household real estate assets fell for the second consecutive quarter to $47.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. The fourth quarter level is 0.7% lower than the third quarter but is 2.1% higher than a year ago.

This measure of market value estimates the value of all owner-occupied real estate nationwide. The calculation combines both repeat-home sales data with estimates of additions to the housing stock, essential measuring both price changes and the change in quantity of housing assets. This approach explains why household real estate wealth can continue to rise even as other measures may show a slowing in home price growth.

Real estate secured liabilities of households’ balance sheets, i.e. mortgages, home equity loans, and HELOCs, increased 0.7% in the fourth quarter to $13.8 trillion. This level is 2.9% higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Owners’ equity share of real estate assets was 71.3% in the fourth quarter. This share also fell for the second consecutive quarter and was slightly lower than a year ago. Even with the quarterly decline, this share has been above 70% for 11 consecutive quarters, the longest stretch since the 1950s. Owners’ equity in real estate totaled $34.1 trillion in the fourth quarter.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

New Home Sales Decline in January on Weather Disruptions – Eye On Housing

No Comments


New home sales declined in January, reflecting typical monthly volatility as well as weather-related disruptions. On a three-month moving average basis, sales remain broadly in line with a year ago, suggesting underlying demand conditions have been relatively stable despite the month-to-month fluctuations. Meanwhile, builders continue to rely on incentives to attract buyers and sustain demand. The January NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed that 64% of builders used sales incentives, marking the 12th consecutive month this share exceeded 60%.

Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 17.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 from a downwardly revised December reading, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales is down 11.3% from a year earlier. On a three-month moving average basis, sales were 688,000, remaining broadly in line with the 685,000 pace seen a year ago.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 587,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory rose to 476,000 units in January. This is 0.4% higher than the previous month, but 4.0% lower than a year earlier. At the current sales pace, months’ supply for new homes stood at 9.7, compared to 9.0 a year ago. The increase in inventory along with weaker sales partly reflects a temporary slowdown in the new home market, as weather disruptions limited transactions during the month, particularly in regions such as the Northeast, where sales declined sharply by 44.7%.

A year ago, there were 116,000 completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By the end of January 2026, that number increased 10.3% to 128,000. However, completed, ready-to-occupy inventory accounted for just 27% of total inventory, while homes under construction made up 51%. The remaining 22% of new homes for sale in January were homes that had not started construction when the sales contract was signed.

The median new home sale price declined 4.5% to $400,500, representing a 6.8% decrease from a year ago. In January, 19% of new homes were priced below $300,000, while 34% were priced above $500,000. The share of new homes priced below $300,000 has trended lower since October 2025, after reaching a recent peak of 23% in September 2025.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 1.4% in the Midwest and 4.1% in the South. New home sales are down 8.3% in the Northeast and 3.5% in the West.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Fourth Quarter 2025 Multifamily Construction Data – Eye On Housing

No Comments


According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased year-over-year during the fourth quarter of 2025. For the quarter, 96,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 91,000 were built-for-rent. This built-for-rent total was 18% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase, and it is possible these numbers will be revised lower in future Census data given other multifamily data reporting.

The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 95% for the fourth quarter. A historical low market share of 47% for built-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period.

For the fourth quarter, there were 6,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, flat from a year ago.

An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to the fourth quarter 2025 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts increased to 1,068 square feet. The median increased to 1,048 square feet. These measures are consistent with the elevated share of multifamily built-for-rent construction.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Holding Pattern Continues for the Fed – Eye On Housing

No Comments


The Fed continued its current pause for rate reductions at the conclusion of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s monetary policy body. The Fed held the short-term federal funds rate at a top rate of 3.75%, the level set in December of last year. This marked the second policy pause since the Fed resumed easing in September of 2025.

Characterizing current economic conditions, the Fed stated that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.” The central bank also noted that “the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.” The March statement noted:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

Chair Powell noted during his press conference that activity in the housing sector remains “weak.” Despite elevated uncertainty, Chair Powell noted there is expectation of ongoing progress for inflation, describing policy as mildly restrictive.

The Fed’s statement noted the central bank will continue to consider risks associated with both sides of its dual mandate, to maintain maximum employment and stable prices.

There was only one dissenting vote (Miran), who voted for a quarter point cut. Governor Miran has previously made the argument for more dovish monetary policy due to limited tariff effects and an improving productivity outlook that would mute future inflation pressure.  During the press conference there was discussion about the uncertain scale effects from higher oil prices and the merit of looking through supply-side shocks that can have offsetting effects on inflation (higher) and growth (lower).

Chair Powell has one remaining meeting at the helm at the Fed. President Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Powell said today he will stay on as Chair pro tem until Warsh is confirmed. Powell has not made a decision regarding whether he will remain as a Governor after his term as Chair ends. Powell can remain a Governor until the end of January, 2028.

NAHB had forecasted two additional rate cuts for 2026, based on the expectation of modest easing of inflation and a cool labor market. However, consistent with market expectations, our forecast will reduce this to just one rate cut for 2026 due to higher inflation pressure related to headline issues, including increased oil prices due to the Iran war. A longer conflict will have a relatively greater impact on the delay for future Fed rate cuts.

While reductions for the federal funds rate do not have a direct effect on mortgage interest rates, which remain slightly above 6%, federal funds rate reductions do lower interest rates on builder and developer loans, helping the supply-side of the housing market. Supplying more housing and at lower cost is key to solving the ongoing housing affordability challenge. Lower financing costs are part of the overall solution.

Looking forward, the Fed’s outlook for the economy and monetary policy is mixed. Estimates from the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicate an improved economic growth outlook, with a 2.4% fourth quarter year-over-year growth rate for 2026 (revised up from 2.3% as projected in December) and 2.3% for 2027 (revised up from 2%).

The SEP estimates also reveal an expectation of a 4.4% unemployment rate in 2026 and higher expectation for inflation (core PCE) of 2.7%, revised higher from 2.4% in December. The revised SEP does not anticipate the economy reaching the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2% until 2028.

With respect to policy, the SEP outlook suggests one rate cut in 2026 and one final rate cut in 2027. The “dot plot” of individual responses suggests one member expecting four rate cuts in 2026.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Building Material Price Growth Remains Entrenched Above 3% – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Residential building material price growth accelerated in February after slowing a month prior, according to the latest Producer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since the BLS collects pricing data during the week of the 13th, these figures were finalized before the onset of the conflict in Iran.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7% in February, after rising 0.5% in January. The index for final demand services rose 0.5% in February, while the index for final demand goods rose 1.1% over the month. The monthly increase in the index for final demand goods was the largest since it rose 1.6% back in August of 2023.

The price index for inputs to new residential construction rose 0.7% in February and was up 3.4% from last year. The price of goods used in new residential construction was up 1.1% over the month and 3.0% from last year, while the price of services was up 0.1% over the month and up 4.2% from last year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the inputs to residential construction price index, representing around 60%. On a monthly basis, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 1.1% in February. The last time this index increased over 1.0% on a monthly basis was January of 2025.

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring remaining goods. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

Energy input prices rose 9.3% in February but were 3.5% lower than one year ago. Building material prices were up 0.6% in February and up 3.5% compared to one year ago.

The largest year-over-year price increases continue to show in metal products with the largest being for metal molding and trim, as prices are now up 61.7% from a year ago. Metal windows price growth has continued to accelerate with prices up 20.2% from last year. Across all metals and metal products, prices are up 16.6% from last year. Yearly price declines were prevalent among energy products, due to the timing of the survey. For building materials, particleboard and fiberboard prices were down 17.4%, while softwood veneer and plywood prices were down 4.0%.

Input Services

Prices for service inputs to residential construction reported an increase of 0.1% in February. On a year-over-year basis, service input prices were up 4.2%. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing component (other services).

The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by other services (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was up 5.8% from a year ago. The transportation and warehousing services rose 3.0%, while prices for other services were up 1.3% over the year.

Expanded Inputs to New Construction Data

Within the PPI that BLS publishes, new experimental data was recently published regarding inputs to new construction. The data expands existing inputs to industry indexes by incorporating import prices with prices for domestically produced goods and services. With this additional data, users can track how industry input costs are changing among domestically produced products and imported products. This data focuses on new construction, but the complete dataset includes indices across numerous industries that can be found here on BLS website.

New construction input prices are primarily influenced by domestically produced goods and services, with domestic products accounting for 90% of the weight of the industry index for new construction. Imported goods make up the remaining 10% of the index.

The latest available data, for December 2025, showed that domestically produced goods continue to show price growth compared to imported goods used in new construction. On a year-over-year basis, the index for domestic goods increased 3.0%, while prices for imported goods have fallen 3.2%.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Lumber Imports and Employment Fall – Eye On Housing

No Comments


U.S. sawmill production was unchanged in the third quarter according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. Utilization rates for sawmills and wood preservation industries remained near 70% despite a weakened demand environment from lower levels of residential construction in the third quarter of 2025. The most notable lumber trend from the third quarter was the sharp drop for U.S. imports of softwood lumber, as higher duties went into effect.

Over the full year of 2025, the U.S. imported an estimated 12.7 billion board feet of softwood lumber, marking the lowest annual import level since 2014.

The sawmill utilization rate, a measure of actual production relative to potential full production published quarterly by the Census Bureau, has trended downward since 2017 due to added capacity and stagnant output. However, in the third quarter of 2025, on a four-quarter moving average, the utilization rate rose, as it increased from 68.2% to 68.8%. Meanwhile, sawmill production, based on a four-quarter moving average, was 1.2% higher in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter and was 3.1% higher than a year ago.

Lumber prices continued to decline in the third quarter. Softwood lumber prices fell 4.9% during the quarter, though they remained 3.9% higher than one year ago. Hardwood lumber prices continued to increase, rising 1.0% in the third quarter. This was the seventh consecutive quarter of price increases in hardwood lumber.

Employment in sawmill and wood preservation industries continued to fall, dropping to roughly 85,400 workers in the third quarter. This marked the tenth straight quarterly decline, bringing employment below the levels recorded at the onset of the pandemic. Notably, third‑quarter employment reached its lowest level since the first quarter of 2013.

U.S. softwood lumber imports faced rising duty rates throughout 2025. Canadian imports were affected the most, with the combined antidumping and countervailing duties doubling to 35%. Additionally, all softwood lumber imports became subject to a new 10% Section 232 duty, effective in October. As a result, softwood lumber imported from Canada, which accounts for around 80% of imports, now faces a 45% duty rate.

These higher duties contributed to import declines in the third and fourth quarters. The fourth quarter import volume was the lowest amount since the first quarter of 2014. Higher duties were not the only market headwind for imports, as residential construction demand faded over the course of 2025.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
Load More
Pin It