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Real GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of 2026, as a pullback in government spending and slower growth in investment and exports, more than offset stronger consumer spending. Business investment continued to support growth, particularly through equipment and intellectual property products, while imports increased and remained a drag on headline GDP.

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, down from a 2.1% increase in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest GDP report also showed that inflationary pressures remained elevated. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 5.7% in the second quarter, up from 3.6% in the first quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, increased 5.1%, compared with a 4.6% increase in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index increased 3.4%, easing from 4.4% in the first quarter.

Breaking down the second-quarter data further, growth in real GDP primarily reflected gains in consumer spending, investment, and exports, which were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased during the quarter.

Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, accelerated in the second quarter, rising at an annual rate of 3.2% after a 0.5% increase in the first quarter. This acceleration helped offset weakness in other components of GDP and supported the broader measure of underlying private demand.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.9% in the second quarter, up from 1.7% in the first quarter. This measure suggests that private domestic demand strengthened even as headline GDP growth slowed.

Gross private domestic investment continued to expand in the second quarter, although at a slower pace than in the first quarter. Gains in equipment and intellectual property products supported business investment, while private inventories and some structures categories weighed on growth.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.4% in the second quarter. Strong gains in equipment (+15.2%) and intellectual property products (+8.8%) offset a decrease in structures (-5.0%). Meanwhile, residential fixed investment (RFI) rose 1.5%, making its first positive contribution after five consecutive quarters of weakness. Within the residential category, investment in single-family permanent site structures rose 4.4% at an annual rate, multifamily permanent site structures declined 1.8%, and spending on improvements fell 5.0%.

Government spending declined 0.8% in the second quarter, reversing the prior quarter’s boost and contributing to the slowdown in overall economic growth.

Trade activity remained positive but less supportive of GDP growth. Exports continued to increase, although at a slower pace than in the first quarter, while imports accelerated. Because imports are subtracted from GDP, the increase in imports reduced second-quarter headline growth.

For the common BEA terms and definitions, please access bea.gov/Help/Glossary.



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In a year that saw a more than 6% decline for overall single-family housing starts, custom home building posted a gain. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. With spec home building down and the stock market up, custom building expanded its market share.

According to NAHB’s analysis of Census data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey, there were 45,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2025. This is down 4% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024.

However, for 2025 as a whole, custom single-family housing starts totaled 186,000 homes, a 3% increase compared to 2024 (181,000).

Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is almost 20% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% recent peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained some market share.

Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis in this post uses a narrow definition of the sector. It represents home construction undertaken on a contract basis for which the builder does not hold tax basis in the structure during construction.



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Townhouse construction expanded 10% during 2024, outpacing the rest of the single-family home building market.

According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the fourth quarter of 2024, single-family attached starts totaled 44,000. Over the last four quarters (2024 as a whole), townhouse construction starts totaled a strong 174,000 homes, which is 10% higher than the prior four-quarter period (158,000 in 2023). Townhouses made up 19% of single-family housing starts for the fourth quarter of the year, a data series high.

Using a one-year moving average, the market share of newly-built townhouses stood at 17.3% of all single-family starts for the fourth quarter. With recent gains, the four-quarter moving average market share is near the highest on record, for data going back to 1985.

Prior to the current cycle, the peak market share of the last two decades for townhouse construction was set during the first quarter of 2008, when the percentage reached 14.6% on a one-year moving average basis. This high point was set after a fairly consistent increase in the share beginning in the early 1990s.

The long-run prospects for townhouse construction are positive given growing numbers of homebuyers looking for medium-density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities. Where it can be zoned, it can be built.

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Kindred Designs LLCSave Photo
The island has an oil-based stain that enhances the wood grain. Black metal swivel stools help make the island a gathering spot. The countertops are marble-look quartz. The island slab creates a continuous, expansive prep space. “I feel quartz is an economical and durable choice for families,” Reesey says.

A backsplash featuring matte white scallop-shaped ceramic tiles brightens the room and adds visual movement. An upgraded 30-inch induction range sits below a hood with wood trim that coordinates with the other wood details in the room. A stainless steel 36-inch counter-depth 4-door smart refrigerator (partially visible) is to the left of the sink.

A pair of modern pendant lights over the island coordinate with other black and brass finishes used in the room. (The kitchen also has recessed LED ceiling lights, which were digitally removed by the photographer to highlight other design details.)

Backsplash: Prado in Andalucia, Mirazur collection, Sonoma Tilemakers; pendant lights: Blaine 16-inch, Rejuvenation; paint colors: Wind’s Breath (walls) and Super White (trim), Benjamin Moore

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