Latest Posts:
Tag

Dips

Browsing
In Research & Trends

March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips

No Comments


Private residential construction spending declined by 0.4% in March, largely driven by a decrease in home improvement spending. This decline followed five consecutive months of growth. Despite the monthly drop, spending remained 2.8% higher than a year ago, showing the resilience of the housing market.

According to the latest U.S Census Construction Spending data, improvement spending declined by 1.2% in March, aligned with the weakness in the Remodeling Market Sentiment of the first quarter of 2025. Still, spending on improvements was 13.4% higher than in March of 2024. Meanwhile, spending on single-family construction edged up by 0.1% in March, continuing its growth after a five-month decline from April to August 2024. However, single-family construction spending remained 0.8% lower than a year ago. Multifamily construction spending stayed unchanged in March, staying in the downward trends that began in December 2023. Compared to March 2024, it was down 12.1%.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates and concerns over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 1.6% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of power ($8.7 billion), followed by the manufacturing category ($8.1 billion).

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Homeownership Rate Dips to Five-Year Low

No Comments


The homeownership rate declined to 65.1% in the first quarter of 2024, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Amid elevated mortgage interest rates and tight housing supply, housing affordability is at a multidecade low. Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, the homeownership rate is 4.1 percentage points lower and remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.3%.

Homeownership rates declined across nearly all age groups over the past year, except those aged 65 and older. Among younger households, the homeownership rate for those under 35 rose slightly to 36.6% in the first quarter of 2024. However, it is still hovering at the lowest rate in the last 6 years. This age group, particularly sensitive to mortgage rates and the inventory of entry-level homes, saw the largest decline among all age categories (1.1 percentage points down). Similar declines were seen among the 35-44 group and 55-64 age group, with rates decreasing from 61.4% to 60.3% and from 76.3% to 75.2%, respectively. Homeownership rates for householders aged 45-54 dipped slightly from 70.8% to 70.6%. In contrast, those 65 years and over experienced a modest increase from 78.7% to 79%.

The national rental vacancy rate increased to 7.1% for the first quarter of 2025, returning to the pre-pandemic levels after several years of tight rental market. Meanwhile, the homeowner vacancy rate stayed at 1.1%, remaining near the survey’s 67-year low of 0.7%.

The housing stock-based HVS revealed that the count of total households increased to 132.2 million in the first quarter of 2025 from 131.0 million a year ago. The gains are due to gains in both renter household formation (1.2 million increase), and owner-occupied households (106,000 increase).

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

January Private Residential Construction Spending Dips

No Comments


Private residential construction spending declined by 0.4% in January, largely driven by a decrease in multifamily construction and home improvement spending. This decline followed three consecutive months of growth, indicating a downward shift in the monthly data.  Despite the monthly drop, spending remains 3.1% higher than a year ago, showing the resilience of the housing market.

  According to the latest U.S Census Construction Spending data, multifamily construction spending fell by 0.7% for the month, extending the downward trends that began in December 2023. This decline aligns with the weakness in the Multifamily Production Index (MPI) and a lower number of multifamily homes under construction. Improvement spending declined by 1.5% in January but was 14.3% higher compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, spending on single-family construction rose by 0.6% in January, continuing its growth after a  five-month decline from April to August. This growth also aligns with steady builder confidence seen in the Housing Market Index. However, single-family construction remained 0.9% lower than a year ago.

The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates and concerns over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.

Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 1.8% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($12.4 billion), followed by the power category ($5.5 billion).

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Consumer Confidence Dips Amid Economic Outlook

No Comments


Consumer confidence fell to a three-month low in December amid growing concerns about economic uncertainties, especially potential tariffs. These policy changes could derail inflation progress and lead the Fed to slow its easing pace.

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 112.8 to 104.7 in December, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and about their expected situation. The Present Situation Index decreased 1.2 points from 141.4 to 140.2, and the Expectation Situation Index dropped 12.6 points from 93.7 to 81.1, just above the 80 threshold. Historically, an Expectation Index reading below 80 often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative in December. The share of respondents rating business conditions “good” decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 19.1%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 1.4 percentage points to 16.7%. However, consumers’ assessments of the labor market improved. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” rose by 3.4 percentage points to 37%, and those who saw jobs as “hard to get” decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.8%.

Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve fell from 24.7% to 21.7%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate rose from 15.9% to 18.3%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were less positive. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” decreased by 3.7 percentage points to 19.1%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” climbed by 3.4 percentage points to 21.3%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home fell to 4.9% in December. Of those, respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home decreased to 0.4%, and those planning to buy an existing home dropped to 2.2%.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Third Quarter

No Comments


The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) for the third quarter of 2024 posted a reading of 63, down two points compared to the previous quarter.

Remodelers remain optimistic about the market even though the overall RMI edged down for the third consecutive quarter. Some have potential customers citing the upcoming election as a reason for putting large projects on hold. Remodelers also continue to face various headwinds such as difficulty finding skilled construction labor and higher interest rates. Nevertheless, the overall RMI reading of 63 is consistent with NAHB’s forecast for steady 2% growth in remodeling spending over the next two years.

The RMI is based on a survey that asks remodelers to rate various aspects of the residential remodeling market “good”, “fair” or “poor.”  Responses from each question are converted to an index that lies on a scale from 0 to 100. An index number above 50 indicates a higher proportion of respondents view conditions as good rather than poor.

Current Conditions

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is an average of two major component indices: the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. 

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three subcomponents: the current market for large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more), moderately sized projects ($20,000 to $49,999), and small projects (under $20,000). In the third quarter of 2024, the Current Conditions Index averaged 72, declining one point from the previous quarter.  All three components remained well above 50 in positive territory: the component measuring small-sized remodeling projects (under $20,000) rose two points to 77, while both the component measuring moderate remodeling projects (at least $20,000 but less than $50,000) and the component measuring large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more) fell three points to 71 and 67, respectively.

Future Indicators

The Future Indicators Index is an average of two subcomponents: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in and the current backlog of remodeling projects. 

In the third quarter of 2024, the Future Indicators Index was 55, down three points from the previous quarter.  Quarter-over-quarter, the component measuring the backlog of remodeling jobs fell three points to 57 and the component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in dropped two points to 53.

For the full set of RMI tables, including regional indices and a complete history for each RMI component, please visit NAHB’s RMI web page.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Consumer Confidence Dips Amid Job Market Concerns

No Comments


Consumer confidence fell to a 3-month low in September due to growing concerns about the job market, despite the labor market remaining healthy. Recent job growth revisions showed fewer jobs were added in 2023 than initially reported. However, the unemployment rate remained at a relatively low level and wage growth continued to outpace inflation. This suggests the labor market is cooling from its red-hot pace but remains steady. 

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 105.6 to 98.7 in September, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and about their expected situation. The Present Situation Index decreased 10.3 points from 134.6 to 124.3, and the Expectation Situation Index fell 4.6 points from 86.3 to 81.7, but still remained above the 80 threshold. Historically, an Expectation Index reading below 80 often signals a recession within a year.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative in September. The share of respondents rating business conditions “good” decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 18.8%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 2.9 percentage points to 20.2%. Consumers’ assessments of the labor market worsened as well. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 30.9%, while those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 1.5 percentage points to 18.3%.

Consumers were also less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve fell from 19.1% to 18.5%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate rose from 14.5% to 16.6%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were less positive. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” increased by 0.1 percentage points to 16.4%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” climbed by 1.3 percentage points to 18.3%.

The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home rose to 5.7% in September. Of those, respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home increased slightly to 0.7%, while those planning to buy an existing home decreased to 2.4%.

Discover more from Eye On Housing

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
Pin It