Latest Posts:
Tag

Decline

Browsing
In Research & Trends

Mortgage Applications Decline for Sixth Straight Month in August – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Mortgage application activity continued to decline in August as elevated US treasury yields pushed mortgage rates higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, declined 3.2% month-over-month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Compared to a year ago, total mortgage applications declined 9.1%.

The monthly decline occurred in both major components. Purchase applications decreased 3.1% from July, while refinance applications declined 3.5%. Relative to August 2025, purchase and refinance activities were also down 2.5% and 16.6%, respectively.

The decline in market activity continued to slow down as the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose. Compared to last month, the mortgage rate increased 8 basis points (bps) to 6.78%. The rate was also 9 bps higher than a year ago.

By loan type, applications for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) decreased 0.6% and 3.4% month-over-month, respectively. Compared with a year earlier, ARM application volume fell 18.2%, while FRM applications declined 8.2%. Despite the monthly decline in ARM applications, their share of total applications edged higher because ARM activity fell less than FRM activity. ARMs, including both purchase and refinance loans, accounted for 7.9% of total applications on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in August, up 0.2 percentage points from July but 0.9 percentage points below the share recorded a year earlier. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs was 5.90% in August.

Average loan sizes also declined across all categories in August. The overall loan size decreased 2.3% to $375,300. The average purchase loan size fell 0.8% to $441,000, while the average refinance loan size declined 4.5% to $283,000. The average ARM loan size edged down 1.5% to $923,800.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Small Decline for Single-Family Home Size – Eye On Housing

No Comments


New single-family home size had been falling since 2015 in response to declining affordability conditions. An exception occurred in 2021, when new home size increased as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as mortgage interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023 and affordability worsened, demand shifted back toward smaller homes. This trend appears to be reversing again as the entry-level has been weak.

According to second quarter 2026 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was 2,185 square feet, effectively unchanged from the prior quarter. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,426 square feet, a small increase year-over-year.

On a one-year moving average basis, the average size of a new single-family home increased slightly to 2,421 square feet, while the median size increased to 2,184 square feet. Since 2024 home size has trended higher as the upper end of the housing market has fared better than the entry level.

Home size trends in 2026 are likely to post continued small gains, driven by relative strength at the higher end of the market but will be constrained by housing affordability challenges.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Multifamily Gains Lift Overall Starts Despite Single-Family Decline – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Strong multifamily growth pushed overall housing starts higher in June, while single-family production remained sluggish as elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs and persistent labor shortages continued to weigh on the market.

Overall housing starts increased 19.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau. This pace reflects the number of housing units builders would begin over the next 12 months if June’s activity were sustained.

Within the total, single-family starts decreased 0.2% to an 895,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and were down 3.2% compared to June 2025. On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are down 5.3%. Given recent volatility, the three-month moving average provides a clearer signal, falling to 902,000 units.

Multifamily starts, which include apartment buildings and condominiums, rose 76.2% from May to June to an annualized 532,000 pace. The three-month moving average for multifamily construction has trended higher to 445,000 units, and activity is 17.2% higher compared to year-earlier levels.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 4.5% higher in the Northeast, 1.7% higher in the South, 1.2% higher in the Midwest, and 4.4% lower in the West. Single-family starts were down in all four regions.

The total number of housing units under construction stood at 1.26 million in June, down 6.2% from a year earlier. Single-family homes under construction stood at 582,000 units, a 6.9% year-over-year decline. Multifamily units under construction slowed down to 682,000, down from peaks above 1 million units in December 2023 and 5.7% lower than a year ago.

Completions of single-family homes have improved to an annual rate of about 964,000 units. This marks a 5.5% increase from a year earlier. However, multifamily completions for buildings with five or more units were down 5.1% year over year to a 413,000-unit pace. On a year-to-date basis, total completions across both sectors are down 9.5% reflecting ongoing challenges in the residential construction sector.

Overall permits declined 3.0% to a 1.37-million-unit annualized rate in June. Single-family permits decreased 2.4% to an 871,000-unit rate and are essentially flat compared to June 2025. Multifamily permits are down 4.2% to an annualized 496,000 pace and are down 5.7% compared to June 2025. Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, total permits were 15.2% higher in the Northeast, 1.4% higher in the Midwest, 0.7% higher in the West, but 6.3% lower in the South. For single-family permits, the Midwest was the only region to post an increase, rising 1.3% reflecting the residential construction strength in the region.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Sawmill Output Slips as Capacity Continues to Decline – Eye On Housing

No Comments


U.S. sawmill production fell in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarter of lower output according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. Sawmill output has remained largely flat since 2023, after increasing in the post-pandemic period. The utilization rate for sawmills and wood preservation industries was 71.8% on a four-quarter moving average, up from 71.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The sawmill utilization rate, a measure of actual production relative to potential full production published quarterly by the Census Bureau, moved upward over 2025 as capacity for sawmills fell. Sawmill production, based on a four-quarter moving average, was 0.4% lower in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter but remained higher than a year ago by 1.7%. U.S. sawmills’ full production capacity, an estimation of what could have been produced if running at full production capability, was down 6.0% from a year ago.

Lumber prices rose slightly in the first quarter. Softwood lumber prices rose 6.1% during the quarter but were down 3.8% from a year ago. Hardwood lumber prices continued to increase, rising 1.0% in the first quarter. This was the ninth consecutive quarter of price increases in hardwood lumber.

Employment in sawmill and wood preservation industries continued to fall, dropping to roughly 82,800 workers in the first quarter. This marked the twelfth straight quarterly decline, bringing employment to its lowest level since 2010.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Single-Family Permits Continue to Decline Through April as Multifamily Activity Strengthens

No Comments


Through April 2026, residential construction activity remained uneven across housing sectors. Single-family permitting continued to soften compared with a year ago, reflecting persistent affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs, while multifamily permitting posted solid gains supported by stronger activity in several regions. Regional and state-level permit data reveal notable differences in housing market conditions across the country.

Over the first four months of the year, the number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 299,642. On a year-over-year basis, this represents a 6.4 percent decline compared with the April 2025 total of 320,259. On the other hand, multifamily permitting activity was stronger, with 166,252 permits issued nationwide, marking a 7.5 percent increase from the same period last year.

Regionally, year-to-date single-family permitting declined in all four regions through April. The Midwest was essentially flat, the South declined by 6.3 percent, the West dropped 8.3 percent, and the Northeast fell 13.8 percent. Multifamily permits increased in three of the four regions, led by gains in the Northeast (up 33.5 percent), followed by the West (up 20.0 percent), and the Midwest (up 19.3 percent). The South saw an 8.4 percent decline, driven largely by reductions in large metro areas across Southern states.

At the state level, 13 states and the District of Columbia recorded year-over-year increases in single-family permits in April, with gains ranging from 28.0 percent in the District of Columbia to 0.6 percent in Nebraska and Minnesota. The remaining 37 states reported declines, led by Hawaii, which posted the steepest drop at 27.1 percent.

The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits accounted for 63.1 percent of all single-family permits issued nationwide. Texas led the country with 48,328 permits issued at the end of April 2026, although this represented an 8.2 percent decline compared with April 2025. Florida, the second-highest state, saw permits fall by 6.3 percent, while North Carolina, ranked third, experienced a decline of 12.6 percent.

Between April 2026 and April 2025, 34 states recorded increases in multifamily building permits, while 16 states and the District of Columbia experienced declines. Rhode Island posted the largest percentage increase, with multifamily permits surging 250.6 percent, rising from 170 to 596 units. In contrast, Nevada recorded the steepest decline, with permits falling 78.5 percent, from 3,426 to 738 units.

The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits accounted for 61.3 percent of all multifamily permits issued nationwide. Over the first four months of 2026, California, which issued the most multifamily permits, recorded a substantial increase of 57.0 percent. Texas, the second-highest state, posted a decline of 20.6 percent, while Florida, ranking third, saw multifamily permits fall by 41.3 percent.

At the local level, the following are the ten metropolitan areas with the highest number of single-family permits issued.

Below are the ten metropolitan areas with the highest levels of multifamily permitting activity.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Builder Sentiment Posts Notable Decline on Economic Uncertainty – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Economic uncertainty coupled with rising building material costs and interest rates resulted in a sharp decline in builder sentiment in April as the housing market enters into the heart of the spring buying season.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 34 in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the lowest level since September 2025.

Builder sentiment fell back in spring as buyers face ongoing elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty. The year started with hopes for housing momentum growth, but risks with respect to the Iran war, energy costs, and declines for consumer confidence have slowed the market.

With oil prices higher in the U.S., 62% of builders reported suppliers have increased building material costs due to higher fuel prices, including gas and diesel. Energy costs make up approximately 4% of residential construction material input and service costs.  With near-term economic risks elevated, 70% of builders reported challenges pricing homes given uncertainty about material costs.

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 36% of builders cut prices in April, down slightly from 37% in March. The average price reduction was 5%, down from the 6% figure in March. The use of sales incentives was 60% in April, down from 64% in March, and marking the 13th consecutive month this share reached 60% or higher.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in April. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 37 from March to April, the index measuring future sales dropped seven points to 42 and the index charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 22.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell two points to 42, the Midwest dropped two points to 41, the South held constant at 35 and the West fell three points to 29.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Single-Family Permits Decline Sharply to Start 2026 – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Residential construction activity began 2026 on a mixed note, with single-family permitting weakening significantly while multifamily activity remained relatively stable. Higher borrowing costs and affordability constraints continue to weigh on single-family construction, while multifamily permitting shows signs of resilience despite regional variation.

Over the first month of the year, the number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 62,034. On a year-over-year basis, this represents a 15.2 percent decline compared with the January 2025 total of 73,115. Multifamily permitting activity was essentially flat, with 38,215 permits issued nationwide, marking a 0.5 percent decline from the same period last year.

Regionally, year-to-date single-family permitting declined in all four regions in January. The Midwest declined by 9.1 percent, the Northeast fell 10.6 percent, the South declined 14.7 percent, and the West dropped 20.1 percent. Multifamily permits increased in three of the four regions, led by gains in the Northeast (up 39.4 percent), followed by the West (up 35.5 percent), and the Midwest (up 10.9 percent). The South saw a decline of 24.2 percent, driven largely by a 42.0 percent decrease in Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan areas and a 39.0 percent drop in the Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX metropolitan area.

At the state level, seven states recorded year-over-year increases in single-family permits in January, with gains ranging from 25.5 percent in Montana to 0.4 percent in Washington. Connecticut reported no change. The remaining 42 states and the District of Columbia reported declines, led by the District of Columbia, which posted the steepest drop at 52.0 percent.

The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits accounted for 63.8 percent of all single-family permits issued nationwide. Texas led the country, with 9,580 permits issued at the start of 2026, although this represented a 21.3 percent decline compared with January 2025. Florida, the second-highest state, saw permits fall by 14.9 percent, while North Carolina, ranked third, experienced a decline of 9.8 percent.

Between January 2026 and January 2025, 26 states recorded increases in multifamily building permits, while 24 states and the District of Columbia experienced declines. Delaware posted the largest percentage increase, with multifamily permits surging 1,293.8 percent, rising from 16 to 223 units. In contrast, Wyoming recorded the steepest decline, with permits falling 100.0 percent, from 13 to zero units.

The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits accounted for 63.1 percent of all multifamily permits issued nationwide. Over the first month of 2026, California, which issued the most multifamily permits, recorded a substantial increase of 119.2 percent. Texas, the second-highest state, posted a decline of 24.4 percent, while New York, ranking third, saw multifamily permits rise by 66.7 percent.

At the local level, the following are the ten metropolitan areas with the highest number of single-family permits issued.

Below are the ten metropolitan areas with the highest levels of multifamily permitting activity.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Iran Conflict Reverses Decline in Mortgage Rates – Eye On Housing

No Comments


Mortgage rates, which dipped below 6% in February, climbed back up to end the month just under 6.4%. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.18% in March, 13 points (bps) higher than February. The average 15-year rate also increased by the same amount to 5.56%. Despite the recent increase, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 47 bps and 27 bps, respectively.

The rebound in mortgage rates was driven primarily by movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped 11 bps to 4.24% as tensions in the Middle East escalated. The ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted oil markets, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting fears that inflation could pick up again.

Amid this uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. They revised their inflation expectations higher from 2.4% last December to 2.7% but maintained that one rate cut is still possible in 2026.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

Soft Construction Labor Market Shows Decline for Open Positions – Eye On Housing

No Comments


The number of open positions in construction in February was down year-over-year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from three years ago due to declines in construction activity, particularly in housing. However, recent gains for nonresidential construction have not fully offset soft conditions for housing with respect to the demand for construction labor.

The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined in February, falling from 7.24 million in January to 6.88 million in February. The February reading was down from a year ago (7.24 million) due to a cooling labor market.

Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below eight million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve to move forward on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below eight million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further.

The number of open construction sector jobs fell, declining slightly from 230,000 in January to 202,000 in February. This total was down compared to a year ago (255,000). The chart below notes the declining trend that has been in place for unfilled construction jobs since the Fed raised the federal funds rate and home building weakened. While home building employment was declining during the second half of 2025, other subsectors of the construction industry have expanded (e.g. data centers). This has produced volatility within a reduced range in the series since 2024.

The construction job openings rate decreased to 2.4% in February, down from the 3% rate estimated a year ago.

The layoff rate in construction declined slightly to 1.8% in February. The quits rate decreased to 1.3% for the month.

The current data looks similar to the much discussed low-hire, low-fire labor market paradigm.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
In Research & Trends

New Home Sales Decline in January on Weather Disruptions – Eye On Housing

No Comments


New home sales declined in January, reflecting typical monthly volatility as well as weather-related disruptions. On a three-month moving average basis, sales remain broadly in line with a year ago, suggesting underlying demand conditions have been relatively stable despite the month-to-month fluctuations. Meanwhile, builders continue to rely on incentives to attract buyers and sustain demand. The January NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed that 64% of builders used sales incentives, marking the 12th consecutive month this share exceeded 60%.

Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 17.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 from a downwardly revised December reading, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales is down 11.3% from a year earlier. On a three-month moving average basis, sales were 688,000, remaining broadly in line with the 685,000 pace seen a year ago.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 587,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory rose to 476,000 units in January. This is 0.4% higher than the previous month, but 4.0% lower than a year earlier. At the current sales pace, months’ supply for new homes stood at 9.7, compared to 9.0 a year ago. The increase in inventory along with weaker sales partly reflects a temporary slowdown in the new home market, as weather disruptions limited transactions during the month, particularly in regions such as the Northeast, where sales declined sharply by 44.7%.

A year ago, there were 116,000 completed, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale (not seasonally adjusted). By the end of January 2026, that number increased 10.3% to 128,000. However, completed, ready-to-occupy inventory accounted for just 27% of total inventory, while homes under construction made up 51%. The remaining 22% of new homes for sale in January were homes that had not started construction when the sales contract was signed.

The median new home sale price declined 4.5% to $400,500, representing a 6.8% decrease from a year ago. In January, 19% of new homes were priced below $300,000, while 34% were priced above $500,000. The share of new homes priced below $300,000 has trended lower since October 2025, after reaching a recent peak of 23% in September 2025.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 1.4% in the Midwest and 4.1% in the South. New home sales are down 8.3% in the Northeast and 3.5% in the West.



This article was originally published by a eyeonhousing.org . Read the Original article here. .

Read More
By
Load More
Pin It