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AI’s Role in Reshaping Employment: From Theory to Home Building Sector Impacts

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The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning and generative AI (GenAI), is reshaping industries, creating new economic opportunities, and raising critical questions about its long-term impact on jobs and economic growth. 

A recent study by Ping Wang and Tsz-Nga Wong, titled “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” (NBER Working Paper No. 33867, May 2025), provides valuable insights into how AI is reshaping labor markets. Their research highlights both the opportunities and challenges AI adoption brings to the workforce as it becomes increasingly integrated into the economy.

The paper conceptualizes AI as a “learning-by-using” technology, meaning that AI improves its capabilities by learning from the very workers it may eventually replace. In the short term, this dynamic can significantly boost labor productivity. However, over time, if wages and job roles are not adjusted to reflect the growing capabilities of AI, the technology may transition from a supportive tool to a direct substitute for human labor.

The paper outlines three possible long-term scenarios:

Some-AI Steady State: AI improves productivity threefold but cuts nearly a quarter of jobs. Half of the job losses occur within the first five years, driven by the rapid replacement of workers by an AI system.

Unbounded-AI Equilibrium: AI adoption unfolds smoothly, enhancing productivity without displacing workers. Employment rises modestly as AI becomes a complement to human labor rather than a substitute.

No AI Equilibrium: AI fails to take off, and the labor market remains largely unchanged from its traditional form.

AI presents a dual-edged sword. While it holds the potential to drive sustained growth and create new kinds of work, it also poses significant risks of job displacement. Early stages of AI adoption see the most significant job losses, while those who keep their jobs often see wage increases due to higher productivity.

The authors emphasize that the long-term impact of AI remains uncertain. Outcomes will depend on several variables, including AI’s learning speed, error rates, and the relative cost of replacing workers with machines. This unpredictability makes it difficult to forecast whether AI will be a net job creator or destroyer over time.

Additionally, the study points out that traditional labor market policies are insufficient to address the complex challenges posed by AI. Instead, smart, targeted policies are needed, like balancing the bargaining power between workers and firms, and offering subsidies to jobs at risk of AI disruption. These steps could mitigate negative outcomes and improve overall welfare significantly over the next 20 years, and help make AI a powerful ally in our work rather than a threat.

The Impact of AI on the Home Building Industry: Opportunities and Challenges

In the home building industry, on the supply side, AI is beginning to make its mark with both significant opportunities and complex challenges.

From automating repetitive tasks to enhancing project efficiency, AI is transforming how homes are designed and built. Technologies, such as AI-powered design tools, robotic bricklayers, and automated construction equipment, are streamlining construction processes. These innovations reduce the need for manual labor in certain areas, leading to lower costs and shorter project timelines and helping address ongoing labor shortages. Moreover, AI is creating new opportunities within the home building sector. Demand is rising for workers skilled in AI system management, data analysis, and digital design, signaling a shift toward more technologically integrated and highly skilled roles.

However, the adoption of AI comes with disruption. Without opportunities for reskilling, many workers whose roles may become automated may face displacement. The shortage of highly skilled workers could drive up labor costs and lead to project delays, putting pressure on housing affordability.

To ensure a smooth transformation, targeted policy support is essential. Public and private investment in workforce retraining and upskilling programs will be key to helping displaced workers adapt to new roles, like ones that involve supervising AI systems or solving complex problems machines can’t yet handle.

On the demand side of the housing market, the impact of AI could potentially be farther-reaching. AI will bring short-term disruption to labor markets, eliminating office jobs in metro areas. Such transitions in labor markets will alter housing demand, until the economy produces new jobs in an AI-adopting economy. And in theory, by making workers more productive, AI will raise long-term wage growth. These income gains will be a positive outcome for remodeling, housing demand, and vacation home demand in long run.

For the time being, these impacts are speculative. Over time, they will be worth watching on both the supply and demand sides of the housing market.

Note:

Schmelzer, Ron. “Building The Future: How AI Is Revolutionizing Construction.”

“The Rise of Artificial Intelligence in Construction.” Construction Today, September 2024.

Demirci, Ozge, Jonas Hannane, and Xinrong Zhu. “Research: How Gen AI Is Already Impacting the Labor Market.” Harvard Business Review, November 11, 2024.

“Artificial Intelligence Impact on Labor Markets.” International Economic Development Council (IEDC) and Economic Development Research Partners (EDRP), Literature Review.

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Building Material Price Growth Minimal in April

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—fell 0.4% in April, following a (revised) increase of 0.8% in March. These figures are taken from the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services; this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports.

The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.6% from April of last year. The index can be broken into two components­—the goods component also increased 0.6% over the year, with services increasing 0.6% as well. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 2.4% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 0.5% and final demand for services up 3.3% over the year.

Input Goods Prices

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. For the month, the price of input goods to new residential construction was down 0.2% in April.

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

Energy input prices were up 0.1% between March and April but were 17.6% lower than one year ago. Building material prices were down 0.3% between March and April but up 2.2% compared to one year ago. Energy costs have continued to fall on a year-over-year basis, as this marks the ninth consecutive month of lower input energy costs.

Input Services Prices

Prices for service inputs to residential construction reported its first monthly decline in five months, down 0.6% in April. On a year-over-year basis, service input prices are up 0.6%.

The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component (other services). The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by other services (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was up 0.2% from a year ago. The other services component was up 1.4% over the year. Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services advanced 0.6% compared to April last year.

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Flat Custom Home Building Trends

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NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates flat year-over year growth for custom home builders. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices.

There were 34,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of 2025. This was unchanged relative to the first quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just more than a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (177,000).

Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% recent peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share.

Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis in this post uses a narrow definition of the sector. It represents home construction undertaken on a contract basis for which the builder does not hold tax basis in the structure during construction.

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Residential Building Worker Wage Growth Slows Amid Softer Labor Market

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Wage growth for residential building workers continued to slow in March 2025, reflecting softening in the construction labor market, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

On a nominal basis, average hourly earnings (AHE) for residential building workers reached $38.76 in March 2025, up 4.5% from $37.10 a year ago. This marks a continued deceleration in the year-over-year wage growth, which peaked at 9.3% in June 2024. The recent slowdown reflects an easing of pandemic-related labor shortages and a softening labor demand in the construction sector. In March, the construction labor market saw a decline in job openings as employers slowed hiring plans amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Despite the slowdown in wage growth, residential building workers’ wages remain competitive:

10.2% higher than the manufacturing sector ($35.17/hour)

24.0% higher than the transportation and warehousing sector ($31.25/hour)

3.7% lower than the mining and logging sector ($40.23/hour)

Note:

Data used in this post relate to all employees in the residential building industry. This group includes both new single-family housing construction (excluding for-sale builders) and residential remodelers but does not include specialty trade contractors.

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Who Influences the Purchasing of Building Products?

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In a previous post, NAHB analyzed where builders and remodelers purchased products, regardless of who ultimately purchases them (themselves or subcontractors).  In this post, the question shifts to who is most often responsible for  the choice of particular products.

When averaging over all 24 building product categories, 60% of builders report they had the most influence on product selection compared to 49% of remodelers.  Still, these shares are ranked the highest within their respective sector.  Both builders and remodelers reported similar shares of influence for subcontractors, dealers & suppliers, and architects. 

However, when it comes to the greatest influencer being the customer, this is more prevalent among remodelers (26%) than among builders (16%).  When analyzing the top seven products most often chosen by the customer, there is a considerable gap between remodelers and builders.  Most of these products (cabinets, lighting, carpeting, ceramic tile, countertops, other flooring) typically are chosen for decorative qualities which are rated quite important among customers.

Please click here to be redirected to the full report.

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Where Do Builders and Remodelers Buy Building Products?

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The most common sources for products used in home building and remodeling are specialty retailers, lumber yards, and wholesale distributors, according to two recent NAHB surveys. The surveys include one of single-family homebuilders in the October 2024 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) and one of remodelers in the Q3 2024 NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI). Both surveys asked respondents where they purchase building products, regardless of who ultimately purchases them (themselves or subcontractors)

When averaging across 24 building product categories, the top three major channels of distribution are roughly the same for both builders and remodelers. Specialty retailers, lumber yards, and wholesale distributors together account for around 70% of building product purchases.

When analyzing the specific products purchased at lumber yards, the top products purchased by both builders and remodelers were basic lumber products including plywood & OSB, sawn lumber, and engineered lumber & I-joists.

One major difference between builders and remodelers was the share of those who purchase products from home improvement centers.  Remodelers are three times as likely to buy products at this channel of distribution compared to builders.  Nevertheless, one specific product category, hand & power tools, is purchased at home improvement centers by a majority of both remodelers (68%) and builders (56%).  Of those that do purchase hand & power tools at home improvement centers, 11% of remodelers purchased at least one other product there compared to 3% of builders. 

A subsequent post on who is most often responsible for choosing these products will come later. Please click here to be redirected to the full report.

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Building Material Prices Continue to Grow at Slower Pace

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.6% in March according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in February was revised upward to 0.7%. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services; this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports.

The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 1.3% from March of last year. The index can be broken into two components—the goods component also increased 1.3% over the year, with services increasing 1.3% as well. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 2.7% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 0.9% and final demand for services up 3.6% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. For the month, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 0.5% in March.

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

Energy input prices fell 3.9% between February and March and were 14.9% lower than one year ago. Building material prices were up 0.8% between February and March and up 2.7% compared to one year ago. Energy costs have continued to fall on a year-over-year basis, as this marks the eighth consecutive month of lower input energy costs.

Metal products used in residential construction saw the largest price increases in the month of March. Across all inputs to new residential construction, ornamental and architectural metal work increased the most, up 21.0%. Ornamental and architectural metal work products increased 11.2% on a month-to-month basis, by far their largest monthly increase for the product, with the next closes being 7.9% back in October of 2021.

Input Services

While prices of inputs to residential construction for services were down 0.1% over the year, they were up 1.1% in March from February. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component (other services). The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by other services (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was up 0.7% from a year ago. The other services component was up 1.6% over the year. Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services advanced 3.6% compared to March last year.

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Home Building Employment across States and Congressional Districts in 2023

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As the number of housing units under construction peaked in 2023, the industry set another record employing close to 11.4 million people, including self-employed workers. NAHB estimates that out of this total, 4.7 million people worked in residential construction, accounting for 2.9% of the U.S. employed civilian labor force. Home building in the Mountain Division, as well as in Vermont and Florida, stand out as generating a significantly higher share of local jobs, with residential construction generating more than 5% of all jobs in Idaho and Montana. NAHB’s analysis also identifies congressional districts where home building accounts for particularly high employment levels and share of local jobs.

Not surprisingly, the most populous state—California—also has the most residential construction workers. Over 640,000 California residents worked in home building in 2023, accounting for 3.4% of the state employed labor force.

Fast-growing Florida comes in second with 468,000 residential construction workers. The state stands out for registering one of the fastest growing populations since the start of the pandemic, which undoubtedly boosted housing and construction workforce demand. Florida’s large stock of vacation and seasonal housing further boosts demand for residential construction workers. As a result, in Florida, residential construction workers account for a relatively high 4.4% of the employed labor. Even though this share is well above the national average (2.9%), it is significantly lower than in 2006, when Florida registered the highest share among all 50 states and the District of Columbia, at 6.5%.

Similar to Florida, fast-growing states with a high prevalence of seasonal, vacation homes top the list of states with the highest share of residential construction workers in 2023. Three states in the Mountain Division – Idaho, Montana, and Utah – take the top spots on the list with 5.5%, 5.1% and 4.9% of the employed labor force working in home building. Vermont is next on the list with a share of 4.6%.  

As of 2023, the average congressional district has about 10,800 residents working in residential construction, but that number is often significantly higher. In Idaho’s 1st Congressional District, over 30,000 residents are in home building and Utah’s 2nd Congressional District has over 25,000 residents working in home building. 

Eight other congressional districts have over 20,000 residents working in residential construction – Florida’s 26th, Utah’s 4th, Idaho’s 2nd, Florida’s 17th, Arizona’s 3rd, Utah’s 1st, Florida’s 28th, and California’s 29th. 

By design, Congressional districts are drawn to represent roughly the same number of people. So generally, large numbers of residential construction (RC) workers translate into high shares of RC workers in their district employed labor forces.  Idaho’s 1st tops this list as well, registering the highest share of residential construction workers in the employed labor force, 6.4%. Florida’s 17th is a close second with 6.3% of the district labor force employed in home building. Next on the list are two Mountain division districts – Montana’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd – with shares of 5.8%, followed by two Florida’s districts – 19th (5.7%) and 26th (5.6%). California’s 29th (5.4%) and 39th (5.3%) also register shares far exceeding the national average of 2.9%.   

At the other end of the spectrum there are several districts that contain parts of large urban areas: the District of Columbia, the 12th of New York, located in New York City, Pennsylvania’s 3rd that includes areas of the city of Philadelphia, Georgia’s 5th that includes most of Atlanta, and among others, Illinois’s 7th and 9th, covering parts of Chicago. Most residents in these urban districts tend to work in professional, scientific, and technical services. The District of Columbia stands out for having the lowest number of RC workers, with just 1,400 residing in the district. At the same time, it has a disproportionally large share of public administration workers. The 12th District of New York and the 7th District of Illinois are home to a very large group of finance and insurance workers. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania’s 2nd, more than a third of residents work in health care and educational services. 

The NAHB residential construction employment estimates include self-employed workers. Counting self-employed is particularly important in the home building industry since they traditionally make up a larger share of the labor force than in the U.S. total workforce.  

The new NAHB home building employment estimates only include workers directly employed by the industry and do not count jobs created in related industries– such as design and architecture, furniture making, building materials, landscaping, etc.  As a result, the estimates underestimate the overall impact of home building on local employment. 

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Softwood Lumber Prices Continue to Lead Price Growth for Building Materials

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Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.5% in February according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in January was revised downward to 1.1%. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services, this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports.

The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.7% from February of last year. The index can be broken into two components—the goods component increased 1.2% over the year, while services decreased 0.1%. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 3.2% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 1.7% and final demand for services up 3.9% over the year.

Input Goods

The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. For the month, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 0.6% in February.

The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.

Energy input prices grew 2.6% between January and February but remained 8.5% lower compared to one year ago. Building material prices were up 0.5% between January and February while they were up 2.0% compared to one year ago.

Among materials used in residential construction, lumber and wood products ranks 3rd in terms of importance for the Inputs to New Residential Construction Index. Nonmetallic mineral products and metal products rank 1st and 2nd, respectively. The top lumber and wood products include general millwork, prefabricated structural members, not-edge worked softwood lumber, softwood veneer/plywood and hardwood veneer/plywood. Prices for these wood commodities experienced little growth for most of 2024. Currently, softwood lumber prices were 11.7% higher compared to one year ago while on a monthly basis, prices rose 3.0%. This marks the fourth straight month where yearly price growth was above 10% for softwood lumber.

Input Services

While prices of inputs to residential construction for services were down 0.1% over the year, they were up 0.4% in February from January. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was down 1.5% from a year ago. The services less trade, transportation and warehousing component was up 1.6% over the year.  Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services advanced 2.2% compared to February last year.

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Gains for Custom Home Building

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NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates gains for custom home builders after a period slight softening of market share. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building.

There were 47,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a 7% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters (2024 as a whole), custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just below a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (178,000 in 2023).

Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% local peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share.

Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis in this post uses a narrow definition of the sector. It represents home construction undertaken on a contract basis for which the builder does not hold tax basis in the structure during construction.

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