The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, rose 14.0% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, driven primarily by a surge in refinancing activity. Year-over-year, the index is up 29.2% compared to March 2024.
The Purchase Index rebounded 8.3% (SA) from the previous month as mortgage rates declined. Meanwhile, the Refinance Index surged 22.2% (SA), continuing its strong upward trend. Compared to a year ago, purchase applications are up 7.6%, while refinance activity has jumped 72.9%.
Economic uncertainty continues to drive treasury yield volatility, impacting mortgage rates. In March, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reported in the MBA survey fell 17 basis points (bps) to 6.7%, marking a 23 bps decline from a year ago.
Loan sizes have continued to rise since the start of the year. In March, the average loan size across the total market (including purchases and refinances) increased 3.5% month-over-month (NSA) to $403,300. For purchase loans, the average size edged up 0.9% to $450,000, while refinance loans saw a sharper increase of 10.4%, reaching $337,500. Meanwhile, the average loan size for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) rose slightly by 1.1%, from $1.13 million to $1.14 million.
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Construction Firms
1. Business activity outlook increased. The Expected Business Activity Indicator, related to project inquiries and new committed projects, increased by 10 points, to 62, for the fourth quarter of 2024, from 52 for the third quarter of 2024. This means more construction firms anticipate quarter-over-quarter growth than anticipate a decline.
Expectations for project inquiries increased by 7 points, to 59 (from 52 for Q3), and expectations for new committed projects increased by 12 points, to 64 (from 52 for Q3).
Both build-only and design-build firms are more optimistic for Q4 than they were for the previous quarter. The expected activity indicator for build-only firms increased 9 points, to 62 (from 53 for Q3), and for design-build firms it increased 10 points, to 61 (from 51 for Q3).
The indicator is based on survey questions about whether businesses expect the number of project inquiries and new projects to increase, decrease or remain unchanged in the coming three months compared with the previous three months.